STOP MAKING SENSE VOLUME 1

Craig MacTavish was on HNIC After Hours last night and gave us some insight into what he’s looking to improve over the summer. Here’s a sampling of what he told Scott Oake and Kelly Hrudey:

  • “There were some pretty key indicators that we weren’t strong enough”
  • “We seldom control the momentum swings”
  • “we had great (negative) shot differential in most of the games, which is an generally a pretty good indicator of team strength”
  • “the positive part of that is that we didn’t need a lot of chances to score.”
  • “Our core guys have to learn to be better without the puck, to be more commited without the puck.”
  • “There were a lot of guys on our team on any given night that were accepting of not being a positive factor.”
  • “You can’t go out there and not be involved in the game.”

There’s about 30 things we can tackle in there, but I’d like to focus on one this morning. The role players.

BOXCARS (forwards)

  1. Ryan Smyth 47, 2-11-13 -5
  2. Shawn Horcoff 31, 7-5-12 +8
  3. Lennart Petrell 35, 3-6-9 -4
  4. Ryan Jones 27, 2-5-7 E
  5. Eric Belanger 26, 0-3-3 -1
  6. Teemu Hartikainen 23, 1-2-3 -8
  7. Ben Eager 14, 1-1-2 -4
  8. Mike Brown 39, 1-1-2 -7
  9. Anton Lander 11, 0-1-1 -4
  10. Darcy Hordichuk 4, 0-0-0 -1
  11. Chris VandeVelde 11, 0-0-0 -3
  12. Mark Arcobello 1, 0-0-0 E

 CORSI REL forwards

cr1213

The CorsiRel suggests that Ryan Jones, Ryan Smyth, Shawn Horcoff and the kids Lander and Hartikainen are doing okay, but that Brown, VandeVelde, Petrell, Belanger, Eager and Hordichuk are poor. However, one would think the new GM will turn over more of the roster than the 4line; I think Horcoff and Brown return, that Hartikainen and Lander get a good chance to make the team.

  1. Ryan Smyth: The CorsiRel (this is without last night’s game) suggests that Smyth is still able to handle an NHL role. I’m wondering if he’s maybe being tarred with the same brush due to the bunch he’s hanging out with on the ice based on CorsiRel. I think the Oilers find a way to transition him away from the ice.
  2. Ryan Jones: I don’t think we should fret the offense–short season, recovering from injury–and his CorsiRel makes the CorsiOn number look much better. I’ve always felt the Oilers needed more of a Pisani (cheating for defense, not offense) type, and MacT certainly liked those player types as coach. I think he may not return.
  3. Lennart Petrell: He never really got it done at even strength, and despite fine penalty-killing I don’t see him returning. Of course, I said that last spring.
  4. Eric Belanger: I think he’s done as an Oiler.
  5. Ben Eager: Concussion worries and ineffective play have him on the outside looking in.
  6. Darcy Hordichuk: Gone.

So, if we count Hall-Nuge-Eberle and Gagner-Yakupov-Paajarvi-Hemsky as the top 6, the bottom 6F might use the following as the foundation for 13-14:

  • C Shawn Horcoff
  • R Mike Brown
  • C Anton Lander
  • L Teemu Hartikainen
  • One of Paajarvi or Hemsky

That means MacT is shopping for:

  • A Pisani type left winger for the Horcoff line (which will also likely include either Hemsky or Paajarvi)
  • A center to push Lander down the depth chart
  • A better Petrell who can PK, be an effective 4line option and move up the depth chart if needed

Is that about right?

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119 Responses to "STOP MAKING SENSE VOLUME 1"

  1. Clarkenstein says:

    Krueger is not the guy. MacT should call him into his office tomorrow morning and bid adieu! Same with the rest of the coaching staff. Then he should eviscerate the scouting staff (almost an oxymoron). Will any of this happen? No! As for the players… I think if Tambo couldn’t get anything for some of the imposters on the team what makes anybody think MacT can?

  2. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    I gather most people here won’t take to New Order, but Jonathan Demme directed this video too:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hcjolqpKR4g

    In the MTV 80s generation he was an interesting figure. He embraced new sounds but insisted upon musicianship. Hence his videos/films for bands didn’t have any of the glitz that we usually associate with the coke days of the 80s and pop/electronic music. Instead he offered a sparse visual landscape, almost as if he was reminding the viewer:

    video supplements the music and the music is the product of these interesting people, i.e., the opposite of the MTV model where music supplements the video and the video is a way to showcase interesting images.

    His use of “live” performances drives this vision home.

  3. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    This:

    “the positive part of that is that we didn’t need a lot of chances to score.”

    Gave me pause… it struck too close to Healy’s comment last week after Friedman informed the stunned panel that Toronto has been outshot badly all year that shots don’t matter “because goalies” or something.

    That combined with the rumors of the great white whale hunt for an albatross goalie… leave me uneasy.

    How does a 3rd line of Horcov-Stalberg-Hemsky look?

    pretty damn good… expensive though… may be the most expensive 3rd line in the league.

  4. sliderule says:

    LT
    OMG are you hinting that they might transition Smyth to coaching?

    If that comes to pass we are totally hopelessly screwed.

  5. Racki says:

    Romulus: Let me explain MacT’s comment.. it was pretty apparent at the time what he meant. What he was saying was that the negative shot differential was a problem that they had to fix… but he noted that the Oilers seem to be able to score with a limited number of chances. What his comment was saying basically was “imagine what this team will be like if we start outshooting opponents on a regular basis”. And I think that is a true comment. Once this team starts playing better hockey across the board, they’ll be quite dangerous. But MacT fully recognizes (unlike Tambellini) that this team will never do it…. he knows significant changes are required.

    Tambellini’s philosophy: If we wait long enough, this team will be explosive.
    MacT’s philosophy: every player has room for improvement, but we need to stop wasting these elite kids’ talent by surrounding them with below average talent.

  6. Woodguy says:

    I still say that using RelCor takes too much of the stink off the team.

    I think no one outside of 4,93,14,64,19 are guaranteed a job next year.

    You can’t turn over half a roster in a year, but he might have a real go at it.

    Having young players on your 4th pushing to get up the roster makes everyone play better to keep their roster spot.

    Look at CHI’s players who slot in after the top 6 in terms of 5v5 TOI/gm:

    Andrew Shaw – 21
    Bryan Bickell – 26
    Viktor Stalberg – 26
    Marcus Kruger – 22
    Michael Frolik – 24
    Daniel Carcillo – 27
    Brandon Bollig – 25
    Jamal Mayers – 37

    Old slow man Hanzus was added at C insurance at the deadline, but this is the model the Oilers should strive for.

    Good young players playing to push up the depth chart.

    If your 2LW or 2C looks that 3-4LW or 3-4 C and *knows* they can’t push up and take his spot, there is naturally less effort.

    Many of the players from CHI that I listed have played in the top 2 lines at one point or another during the year to fill in for an injury or to push an under performer down the chart.

    Its impossible (or at the least self defeating) to do that with the Oilers make up under the top 6 5v5 toi forwards because most of them are not NHL level hockey players.

    Now the dynamic on the Oilers is slightly different given how young the top 6 is, so you want some older vets in the bottom 6, but its probably not a bad idea to find a good vet 2LW to push 91 down the chart and replace 89 with a C who can play against tough sledding and not get his teeth kicked in.

    To sum up this rambling rant.

    Up grade 2LW and 2C and the entire 4th line to make more competition for every roster spot. (I think 91-10-83 would be a decent 3rd line that could handle tough comp with 3 players who can move up the line up as needed)

    2 more D as well please.

  7. Lowetide says:

    sliderule:
    LT
    OMG are you hinting that they might transition Smyth to coaching?

    If that comes to pass we are totally hopelessly screwed.

    Yes

  8. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Racki,

    That’s a much more charitable interpretation. And, a highly plausible one.

    IIRC he actually said that line twice. I think he thought Oake cut him off so he repeated himself. It seemed like something that he’d been mulling for a while and probably said before.

    There was a balance last night between staring into the abyss and holding your cards close.

    That makes sense on two fronts: 1) you don’t publicly name names unless you have to, it looks sleezy; 2) you don’t telegraph to your dance partners what you intend to do

    That said, I remain concerned he may have bought into something of the idea that an outshot team can win via shot quality/selection, shooting %, or simply elite talent…

    I hope you’re right.

  9. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    sliderule,
    Lowetide,

    What if they sent him to Assist one of the Oil Kings, Thunder or Barons next year?

    Or, put him under the wing of Musil and sent him to Europe to scout?

    Or, put him under the wing of Gare or Stu and had him scout in NA?

    I think if they transition him to off-ice a year early or otherwise, they should probably start him out further away from responsibility and media glare.

  10. Lowetide says:

    Romulus Apotheosis:
    sliderule,
    Lowetide,

    What if they sent him to Assist one of the Oil Kings, Thunder or Barons next year?

    Or, put him under the wing of Musil and sent him to Europe to scout?

    Or, put him under the wing of Gare or Stu and had him scout in NA?

    I think if they transition him to off-ice a year early or otherwise, they should probably start him out further away from responsibility and media glare.

    I’d make him a roving instructor and park his ass in OKC for one week a month. Work with Pitlick on things like standing in front of the net and teach Hamilton the tough areas are the key to having a career.

  11. spoiler says:

    LT, as you mention above, MacT took a pretty good shot at the top 6 too. I don’t think the 4 killer kids will be on the chopping block, but I think to suggest the changes will exclude the top 6 is taking his comments out of context. I don’t think there’s any benefit to not looking holistically at this. In fact. I don’t think it makes any sense not to.

    I think Woodguy is on to something.

  12. spoiler says:

    The thing about Smyth is his wife wants to live in Edmonton, otherwise I think he’s go play hockey in Euroland for a couple of years and then think about coaching/scouting.

  13. Thinker says:

    Hall rnh eberle
    Paajarvi gagner yakupov
    Barkov/monoghan horcoff hemsky
    Smyth lander hartikainen
    Brown

    Fourth line might be in over its head, but tge kids have to take over the bottom six at some point. Next year we should finish around the 90 pt mark, so we might as well go through the growing pains before we are a playoff contender.

  14. Bad Seed says:

    As per Dreger, looks like Niewendyck is about to be replaced by Jim Nill in Dallas.

  15. Lowetide says:

    spoiler:
    LT, as you mention above, MacT took a pretty good shot at the top 6 too. I don’t think the 4 killer kids will be on the chopping block, but I think to suggest the changes will exclude the top 6 is taking his comments out of context. I don’t think there’s any benefit to not looking holistically at this. In fact. I don’t think it makes any sense not to.

    I think Woodguy is on to something.

    Oh sure. I just wanted to take that one item–the role players–and address it. Based on what we’ve talked about recently, and indications we’ve heard from the org and otherwise, the Oilers are going to add a power forward, a center and Roberto Luongo.

    But I’m approaching it one item at a time.

  16. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    spoiler: I think to suggest the changes will exclude the top 6 is taking his comments out of context.

    Not sure where you are getting this from.

    I don’t think LT said the top 6 were untouchable so much as he is bracketing them off from discussion to isolate on one particular area, or:

    “There’s about 30 things we can tackle in there, but I’d like to focus on one this morning. The role players.”

    [EDIT] LT beat me to it.

    On this Luongo front… I don’t think this happens. Not because I don’t think the Oilers would want him, but because I don’t think Luongo waives his NTC to come to EDM.

  17. Acumen says:

    It struck me that a lot of what he said came down to coaching every bit as much as it did team construction. Did you guys pick up on that as well or am I out to lunch?

    I was trying to figure out if it was just his coaching history coming out through the interview or if his previous comments regarding Krueger were less damning than he really felt. I’m hoping for the latter, personally.

  18. DBO says:

    Big tell was the “bigger ” and “stronger ” comment. Guaranteed we get a big 2 lw. And if Gagner wants too much money he is moved. Hopefully the target the teams considering buyouts and offer a cheaper player so we are assured of getting that player. They did it before with O ‘Sullivan for Vandermeer. A team like Tampa needs to off load so an Eager for Malone swap makes sense if he is their buyout candidate. Saves them cash on the buyout, or they keep him and save $3.4 mill in cap space. Target cap issue teams. Use Belanger the same way.

  19. godot10 says:

    Romulus Apotheosis:
    I gather most people here won’t take to New Order, but Jonathan Demme directed this video too:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hcjolqpKR4g

    In the MTV 80s generation he was an interesting figure. He embraced new sounds but insisted upon musicianship. Hence his videos/films for bands didn’t have any of the glitz that we usually associate with the coke days of the 80s and pop/electronic music. Instead he offered a sparse visual landscape, almost as if he was reminding the viewer:

    video supplements the music and the music is the product of these interesting people, i.e., the opposite of the MTV model where music supplements the video and the video is a way to showcase interesting images.

    His use of “live” performances drives this vision home.

    C’mon man! We are all 24 HOUR PARTY PEOPLE here. And being Oiler fans, we know how LOVE WILL TEAR US APART. And that the playoffs are like UNKNOWN PLEASURES that we may never experience again.

    Modern Electronic Dance Music and the modern club/lounge all emerged from the fork in the road Joy Division took when Ian Curtis killed himself, and the rest of the band forged on as New Order.

    And most of what passes for rock-n-roll these days derirves itself from the merger of punk will glam.

    i.e. Joy Division was sort of at the merger of Velvet Underground/Davie Bowie with the punk ethos.

    And so one has bands like the Replacements, Husker Du, Red Hot Chili Peppers, for example, emerging from the post punk tradition of Joy Division and Gang of Four.

    Curt Cobain was a derivative product twice removed from the true genius…Ian Curtis via Paul Westerberg.

  20. Woodguy says:

    Romulus Apotheosis:
    This:

    “the positive part of that is that we didn’t need a lot of chances to score.”

    Gave me pause… it struck too close to Healy’s comment last week after Friedman informed the stunned panel that Toronto has been outshot badly all year that shots don’t matter “because goalies” or something.

    That combined with the rumors of the great white whale hunt for an albatross goalie… leave me uneasy.

    How does a 3rd line of Horcov-Stalberg-Hemsky look?

    pretty damn good… expensive though… may be the most expensive 3rd line in the league.

    There’s a different way to look at this.

    Some highly skilled teams will out score their possession numbers.

    PIT is the best example of this.

    This year their CF% (corsi for a.k.a. shot attempts) was 49% and GF% (goals for) was 58.7%

    The danger in looking at this is that there is a pile of luck involved in the GF% (both SH% and SV% play a big part) so you can’t contribute it all to “skill”.

    Conversely when a team under-scores their CF%, there is luck there too. Bad luck. You cannot contribute it all to “lack of skill”

    I would want to see a team out perform their CF% for 3 years before attributing it to “skill”

    This short season produces some wild results as it shrinks the sample by almost half and luck factors into the numbers even more.

    Here are PIT and CHI’s GF% vs. CF% for the last 3 years:

    2013
    PIT 58.7 – 49.0
    CHI 60.5 – 54.0

    2012
    PIT 54.0 – 54.2
    CHI 50.3 – 52.9

    2011
    PIT 53.3 – 52.8
    CHI 53.7 – 52.8

    We can see that over a longer season the CF% and GF% tend to converge a bit more, even with the highly skilled teams.

    Here are this year’s GF% and CF% for every team:

    Chicago 60.5 54
    Pittsburgh 58.7 49
    NY Rangers 56.5 52.1
    Anaheim 55.8 47.7
    Boston 55.6 54.4
    Montreal 54.7 52.7
    Toronto 53.1 44.1
    Vancouver 52.6 51.6
    Washington 52.3 48.7
    Los Angeles 51.9 56.3
    Detroit 51.8 53.4
    St. Louis 51.6 52.1
    Tampa Bay 51.3 47.1
    Columbus 51.2 46.8
    Phoenix 50.9 50.7
    San Jose 50.7 51.5
    Dallas 50.5 49.1
    Ottawa 49.6 53.8
    NY Islanders 49.5 50.1
    Minnesota 48.4 49.2
    Buffalo 47.6 44.9
    New Jersey 47.4 55.9
    Winnipeg 47.1 49.5
    Nashville 46.8 46.9
    Carolina 46.5 51.7
    Philadelphia 45.4 47.7
    Colorado 45 48.7
    Edmonton 43.6 44.5
    Calgary 41 47.8
    Florida 35.4 49.1

    Edmonton, with the 2nd worse CF% in the NHL (only TOR was worse), still under performed their CF%, so when MacT says ““the positive part of that is that we didn’t need a lot of chances to score.”, I question that statement.

    If you take out the 5v4 goals, the Oilers didn’t convert on chances at an outstanding rate at all.

  21. Woodguy says:

    LT – Went to DM you on twitter, but you aren’t following me anymore.

    Too many obnoxious tweets or a button pushing error?

  22. Ducey says:

    I think the “momentum” and “positve impac”t comments mean that MacT wants a more physical team. A team that can check but also get on the forecheck and turn games around with physical play. That 2006 team came out and absolutely pounded Detroit. MacT wants to be able to do that.

    Ryan Smyth will stay as the 13th forward and wind up playing 50 games. If you spell him off and use him to keep the other guys accountable/ fill in for injuries he is crafty enough to play up and down the lineup.

    Horcoff will stay as the tough minutes center. Lander can spend another year on the shuttle from the AHL. Brown is somewhat useful, but meh.

    The rest don’t being enough toughness or determination.

    Hartikanen could do well with a couple of guys who can cycle down low and have some hands. But he isn’t going to hit and isn’t going to stick up for his team mates. He got run over in that ANA and he had no response. He will need his linemates to do that for him. Maybe he plays bigger if he gets some toughness on his line.

    Petrell and Jones are just plain soft. I guess the fact you didn’t even mention Smithson says it all. All three should be flushed with Belanger and Eager. Hordichuk didn’t even dress for last night’s Barons game (nice game for Arcobello – 9 shots – 3 goals – 4 pts +4).

    So up front I think that MacT is looking at an airlift of four players: A center and 3 wingers. But I think he is looking for something a little different than Pisani types: Guys who can play good defense, chip in 15 points, will make things tough on the other team and maybe have a little crazy.

    This assumes Gagner will be back. I don’t think he will. If they trade Gagner then they will likely keep Brown and Hartikanen.

  23. Lowetide says:

    Woodguy:
    LT – Went to DM you on twitter, but you aren’t following me anymore.

    Too many obnoxious tweets or a button pushing error?

    What the hell? I’ll fix

  24. leadfarmer says:

    Looks like Luongo was practicing his playoff choke last night. What happened to Gagner last 15 games, for a while he looked like he was probably going to get paid, while now if I was MacT I think I would offer 3.5 for 4 years and definitely not go over 4per.

    That Columbus team, what heart. Now that I am moving to Columbus I think I found my second favorite team. Guess we’ll have to endure the Stanley cup Champion Wild get demolished by the Hawks.

  25. Lowetide says:

    Love Joy Division, enjoyed New Order. If you like that kind of music PLEASE check out Public Image and Gang of Four.

  26. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    godot10,

    you don’t know how many arguments I’ve gotten into with people who can’t stand New Order. I run through the same genealogy of music you do to no effect.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zrh5kaWfyMQ

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=95H1vtE9JjU

    There’s no accounting for taste and an argument from authority or historical relevance won’t move the dial.

    Still… thanks for listing a great series of bands. You have a sharp ear.

  27. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Woodguy,

    Interesting… sounds like it wasn’t even a factual statement then…

    I think, however, these talking points were settled in his mind once he took the job, i.e., he had two 5 game streaks in mind… and depending on the moment leaned on one or the other (i.e., we won without shooting a lot in those 5 games, but we were still not great).

    I think he was trying to say: even when we win we are bad… but when we win, we tend to outpace the shot differential by a large margin… and therefore??

    Maybe he was just trying to say we have some elite players on a crappy team.

    I’m going with that.

  28. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Lowetide:
    Love Joy Division, enjoyed New Order. If you like that kind of music PLEASE check out Public Image and Gang of Four.

    If PIL had a different front man… wow that would have been a great band… can’t stand Johnny Rotten though. not his blowhard attitude, I don’t care about that… his voice is too grating for me

    Gang of Four… much closer to the mark.

    the early 2000s resurgence of “dance punk” as they called it, had some great bands following this same trajectory:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yaqQYetCH8U

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UPqHXr_XFbc

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6HP04nfUi4g

    sorry for the music intrusion!

  29. Gret99zky says:

    Minus a couple scrubs that looks like the same damn line-up as this year.

    But we’ll all just expect different results, right?

  30. Gret99zky says:

    Personally I’m hoping for a few “Sail On _______” posts from LT come July.

  31. Wolfie says:

    So if all the big centres are gone…. Do the Oilers go with NIchuskin? Does loading up on high skill wingers diminish the need for a dominant physical centre?

  32. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Wolfie:
    So if all the big centres are gone…. Do the Oilers go with NIchuskin?Does loading up on high skill wingers diminish the need for a dominant physical centre?

    Nichuskin is listed as 6.04 and 202… he’s pretty big.

  33. Mr DeBakey says:

    “I think the “momentum” and “positve impac”t comments mean that MacT wants a more physical team.”

    MacT likes to talk about guys making an impact on the game even when they’re not scoring – and he mentioned it again last night.

    Fan of Brad Winchester & Kyle Brodziak will remember them getting Pressbox time for their failures in this area.

    As for New Order, inspired I just through my BBC Radio, Live in Concert disc [recorded at Glasonbury in 1987.]

  34. FPB94 says:

    Finally it’s not Ryan Jones’ fault: poor guy !

    I feel whoever will lose the lottery will win in all this: Drouin is just scoring at an insane pace and continuing in the playoffs.

    3rd this decade in PPG behind Kane and Crosby alone.

  35. Rondo says:

    I wonder if Oilers were interested in Nichushkin they would have Yakupov talk to him.

  36. Woodguy says:

    Looking at the final SV% for goalies this year, and I think I see why they might be trying to upgrade on Doobie.

    If you look at all goailes who played at least 15 games this year DD ranks 22nd in 5v5 SV%

    If you add in goalies who have played 14 games its 24th.

    5v5 SV% has been shown to be the best tool for projecting goaltending performance.

    4v5 SV% fluctuates radically and adds noise to the overall SV% (not that 4v5 isn’t important, it just isn’t as repeatable and isn’t useful when trying to project future performance)

    DD’s 5v5 last 3 years:

    2013 .922
    2012 .927
    2011 .921

    Not terrible, but remember that when looking at 5v5 the median for NHL starting goalies is usually .927 or so.

    So DD is projecting to be slightly less than average for a NHL starter. Not terrible, but not good.

    This year DD’s 4v5 SV% buoyed his overall SV%.

    DD’s 4v5 SV% last 3 years

    2013 .907
    2012 .854
    2011 .889

    Median for NHL starters tends to be about .890 for 4v5

    So while DD isn’t Pavelec bad as a starter, he’s not projecting to be anything more than a slightly less than average starter.

    To be clear: DD wasn’t the problem this year. Not at all.

    If MacT is going to strive for excellence though, there is nothing wrong with doing so in the goaltending position as well.

    As long as he doesn’t overpay in $ or term of course. Heh.

  37. leadfarmer says:

    LT you should get a sail on Ryan Whitney you were a terrible trade from the start, sail on Ryan Jones, sail on Hemsky, and maybe Gagner ready.

  38. bookje says:

    Woodguy:
    LT – Went to DM you on twitter, but you aren’t following me anymore.

    Too many obnoxious tweets or a button pushing error?

    “It’s not you Woodguy, its …me. Things have changed, I’ve grown and…well, we can still be friends…”

  39. bookje says:

    I am pretty sure Smyth will be back as a 4th liner. It depends if MacT thinks he still has the spirit to play. It could be that he was de-motivated by the guys around him. Or, it could be that he is part of the problem which would suggest some kind of soft landing off the team.

  40. bookje says:

    One interesting thing, I don’t get the sense that there will be any confusion amongst fans as to who is actually in charge of the team as there was with Tambellini. I am pretty certain that Lowe and MacT will disagree on things at times, but that MacT will have the leeway to do as he sees fit. With that said, outside of early on and a couple of instances later (Smyth?), I think Tambellini had authority to make decisions as well.

    With that said, I think some fans will simply lump MacT and Lowe together as decision makers. The notion of a ‘Puppet’ is gone though.

  41. Woodguy says:

    bookje: “It’s not you Woodguy, its …me.Things have changed, I’ve grown and…well, we can still be friends…”

    But…..but…..I can change too!

    *sobs*

  42. justDOit says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: If PIL had a different front man… wow that would have been a great band… can’t stand Johnny Rotten though. not his blowhard attitude, I don’t care about that… his voice is too grating for me…

    Bang on there, Rom. I still have one PIL album – the one that Steve Vai played on. Brilliantly bizarre if you don’t get too entangled in the vocals.

  43. Kris11 says:

    Getting Nic while having Yak would be awesome.

    But that pick will be best used getting a young roster player who can step in and play next year.

    Compliance buyout for Smyth. Trade Hemsky for somebody else’s expensive (probably overpaid) Dman

    Contemplate dealing Gagner.

    Sign UFA forwards to fill in the bottom 6.

    Hall-RNH-Yakupov
    MPS-Horcoff-Eberle
    1X- 2X – 3X
    4X-5X-Hartikainen
    Brown, Lander

    6X-7X
    Smid-Petry
    Schultz-Schultz
    Potter, Klefbom

    Dubnyk
    8X

    Trade Hemsky for 7X. Trade Gagner for 7X.

    Trade 1st overall for 2X.

    Sign free agents (or trade lesser prospects) for 3X, 4X, 5X, and 8X.

    Can leave Belanger as 5X, if necessary.

    There are other ways of doing this of course. For example, keep Gagner as 2X and trade first overall for 7X. Deal Horcoff, keep Gagner, etc.

    If you can’t get two top Dmen, you can pray Schultz can play top 4 more effectively next year and slide Potter and Klefbom or a cheap free agent up.

  44. Maverick says:

    Great game last night! I know the Canucks packed it in early but seeing Loungo get hung out to dry by his team mates and then Loungo getting out his gear and out of the rink in 12 minutes, there are trouble times for Vancouver. (laughing softly)

    Back to the Oilers:

    Doing a quick depth chart and possibly player movement, there might be up to 11 player moves from the roster/contract situation.

    Forwards
    Belanger – Gonzo
    Petrell – Gonzo
    Jones – Gonzo
    Eager – Gonzo
    Smithson – Gone
    Hemsky – maybe
    Gagner – maybe if contract demands too high – Gone

    Defense
    Whitney – Gonzo
    Peckham – Gone
    Potter – Gone

    Goal
    Khabby – Gone

    Eager and Peckham are more removing their contracts from the 50 contract list than effecting the depth chart. But in total a more than probable 11 player movements is quite a bit, can MacT make that many changes in one off season??

  45. Cameron says:

    godot10,

    This just made my day! I’m digging out my copy of ‘Power, Corruption, and Lies’ to celebrate.

  46. Kris11 says:

    I mean, trade Gagner for 6X, above.

  47. Spydyr says:

    The team needs a player or two no one wants to play against. Enough of being the easiest team in the NHL to play against.Perhaps someone that actually hits and leaves a mark .

  48. hunter1909 says:

    OK I haven’t even bothered reading the article yet, but ffs Talking Heads is simply jumping the shark.

    I detest, and I repeat Detest Bruce Springsteen, and everything he stands for(Jersey shore douchebag dodging the draft then painting himself like some all American hero), but Talking Heads need to be exterminated, with every fucking thing they’ve ever done burned in a fire.

    I won’t be able to attend tomorrow’s draft, lol, as I’m taking a much needed seaside break.

    Missed last night’s action also, as the 1-0 scoring well into the 2nd period bored the daylights out of me, so I went and did something else…only to wake up reading about Yak’s 17 goals and wondering what planet I’d arison in. Why can’t arison be a real word?

  49. Kris11 says:

    A good GM could get most of those moves made.

    You have to expect not get what you think of as the ideal return for Hemsky (big contract, 1 year rental, injuries) and Gagner. You might “lose” each of these trades, but if you can get decent D men, the team will improve. (IMO, it is just true that Hall, RNH, Yakupov, MPS, and Eberle can carry the top 6, so you just need D and some depth.)

    Step 1 is to auction the first, Hemsky and to put Gagner’s name out there as movable.( I’m okay moving Horcoff too, but he doesn’t bring much return, which is a hard pill given that they need C’s.)

    Then roll into free agency and do as well as you can.

  50. sliderule says:

    Since changing bottom six mix is one of MacTs goals I thought to compare Kings bottom six to ours.
    I used the oilers lineup from last night

    Kings average wt 217lbs total goals 20 total plus minus – 8
    Oil. Average wt 198lbs total goals 9. Total plus minus -22

    The oil weigh an average of 20 lbs less
    .I was surprised how few goals the king bottom six scored.I knew the oil didn’t score.
    The kings bottom six only gave up 8 goals more than they scored while oil gave up 22.
    I guess you could say the difference of 14 might have given us at five or six more wins and put us close to playoffs.

  51. hunter1909 says:

    Romulus Apotheosis,

    Fuck MTV and videos in general, but Joy Division were/remain one of the greatest bands in the history of British rock.

  52. hunter1909 says:

    spoiler: The thing about Smyth is his wife wants to live in Edmonton

    Who cares what they want? I’m concerned with how Yakupov’s family think…not that clapped out mercenary.

  53. Woodguy says:

    One of my favourite MacT quotes from last night was “we have to move away from a neglect style of management…from a re-building mode to an aggressive style of management”

    That’s an apt way of describing Tambellini’s tenure.

    Neglect.

    We all screamed for changes and better players, but it was neglect style management.

    v4.2 was set up for the fall from the start.

    Interesting revelation.

  54. Woodguy says:

    hunter1909,

    but Talking Heads need to be exterminated, with every fucking thing they’ve ever done burned in a fire.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xNnAvTTaJjM

  55. hunter1909 says:

    I watched that MacT interview when I woke up…the guy isn’t my poster child for much but wtf at least he understands the value of Yakupov/etc. I’m as cynical as anyone, but unlike his silly putty predecessor he appears to have a clue.

    Yak’s development over this 48 game season has been like a Stanley Kubrick movie. What I’m stupidly trying to say is, he’s gone from totally insane clueless without the puck to a seriously interesting player…oh man is he ever going to be something special.

    Hall vs Seguin…hmmm top ten scoring or 46th?

    Yaks vs Huberdeau etc…Hall vs Seguin to the 7th power.

  56. Lowetide says:

    All Tambellini had to do was put in a waiver claim once in a damn while. Holy smokes.

  57. SoxandOil says:

    Lowetide: the Oilers are going to add a power forward, a center and Roberto Luongo.

    But I’m approaching it one item at a time.

    Oh man I hope your wrong about Sweet Lou, I look at Calgary’s situation in regards to net and pray that Lucky 7 Luongo starts there next year.

    Could someone also explain what purpose starting Khabibulin since the trade deadline served? Even in a back up role going forward I don’t see his value, it would be nice to sign a $1mill goalie for a back up next season who wont spend half a year on the IR shelf.

  58. hunter1909 says:

    Woodguy,

    Is that a Talking Heads clip? If so, I’d sooner download a trojan horse, lol.

  59. hunter1909 says:

    Lowetide,

    Tambellini might have been a tad cautious, but 1- he didn’t fuck up the kids…and 2- mmmm I dunno.

  60. Bar_Qu says:

    hunter1909:
    OK I haven’t even bothered reading the article yet, but ffs Talking Heads is simply jumping the shark.

    I detest, and I repeat Detest Bruce Springsteen, and everything he stands for(Jersey shore douchebag dodging the draft then painting himself like some all American hero), but Talking Heads need to be exterminated, with every fucking thing they’ve ever done burned in a fire.

    I won’t be able to attend tomorrow’s draft, lol, as I’m taking a much needed seaside break.

    Missed last night’s action also, as the 1-0 scoring well into the 2nd period bored the daylights out of me, so I went and did something else…only to wake up reading about Yak’s 17 goals and wondering what planet I’d arison in.Why can’t arison be a real word?

    Glad to see a seaside holiday is helping moderate your opinions. Enjoy the air for me.

    I remain unconvinced by any words the current GM speaks. It is his actions I am going to judge him on. But I do enjoy the conversation where others parse his meaning.

    I also agree that there is no one on the roster who is safe outside of the fightin’ five.

  61. Lowetide says:

    hunter: Now I’m thinking of going with Talking Heads for the RE series. :-)

  62. prairieschooner says:

    Sorry guys but I watched the MacT love in last night and I did not get any of the stuff you guys are getting
    I got MacT telling us stuff that is fairly obvious and just Bsing a bunch of guff the rest of his time.
    It is like dating a new girl and only seeing what we want to see.
    I hope I am wrong.

  63. Woodguy says:

    Lowetide:
    hunter: Now I’m thinking of going with Talking Heads for the RE series.

    Seconded.

  64. Woodguy says:

    hunter1909:
    Woodguy,

    Is that a Talking Heads clip? If so, I’d sooner download a trojan horse, lol.

    Burning down the house baby!

    In line with your thoughts of burning everything Talking Heads ever did.

  65. spoiler says:

    Lowetide: Oh sure. I just wanted to take that one item–the role players–and address it. Based on what we’ve talked about recently, and indications we’ve heard from the org and otherwise, the Oilers are going to add a power forward, a center and Roberto Luongo.

    But I’m approaching it one item at a time.

    I think I would be okay if the PF and the C were the same guy.

    Last night Gagner was trying to frustrate me… Before the Schultz goal, Nick gets into a battle in his own corner and loses his lid. Canucks throw another guy into that corner and Jr comes across the crease to stay man-on…

    The pass goes cross ice to the far post where there’s no defenseman, except who made the read and picked up the man and the vacated defenseman’s slot?

    Samwise…

    The play goes back up the ice, Ebs gets absolutely stoned by Lou, but then Hall captures the puck behind the net after a good Fistric pinch and slips a nice pass the Jr Schultz who is cruising the top of the crease.

    Who is also cruising the top of the crease three feet behind Schultz instead of breaking off to cover the open point?

    Samunwise.

    Lol… Yes those would all be nice things, and needed too.

  66. hunter1909 says:

    I’d love them to keep Gagner, who’s a really good player, and lose Hemsky, who many think is a really good player.

    And if MacT has the balls to ditch Horcoff(and his insane cap hit), he’d shoot up the hunter1909 respect charts with a rocket imo. Oooo he can’t replace that sublime talent?

  67. gd says:

    I might be completely out to lunch, but I think this offseason is much less complicated for the Oilers than last year. They have more info, both good and bad on Hall, RNH, Yak, Gagner, PRV, Harty and all the Dmen and Dubnyk. MacT being new is hopefully not beholden to any past decisions so he can cut ties with anyone from RK on down. If this management has any proactive smarts they should be able to fill in some of the needed role player upgrades from teams having to salary cap dump. Having the 7th or 8th pick means they should not be counting on any immediate help from the draft.

    At least this year we no longer have the Whitney health question mark and now that they have a better sense of what Smid, Petry and JS are, the one obvious to me need is a legit top 3+ Dman. I would think the guy needs to be Streit or better and how they get the guy will be a huge reflection on MacT’s effectiveness as a GM.

  68. Racki says:

    Romulus Apotheosis:
    Woodguy,

    Maybe he was just trying to say we have some elite players on a crappy team.

    I’m going with that.

    Honestly, that was my interpretation. I might be too much of the “eternal optimist”, however. But I still think the team is in good hands. I know people’s heads are exploding because Jim Nill just signed on with Dallas, but I think MacT’s comments all make him sound like he has a firm handle on the situation. His words are pretty polar opposite of Tambellini’s.

    Like I said earlier, I got the feeling with Tambellini that he was always patiently waiting for this team to catch it’s stride.. making minor moves to try to help the team… relying on our “depth” (I use that term very loosely) to fill the holes. With MacTavish, I get more of a sense that he’s pinpointed the problems here and is going to do something about it. It seems he won’t sit back and wait for the problem to fix itself. That might scare some people, but for me, I think it’s good. He recognizes that this team isn’t as far enough along as it should be, and it’s not because of our core players, it’s because of the support cast.

    Every year, the Oilers have made us excited at the start of the season, then the wheels completely fall off the bus, and every year, Tambellini has watched it happen and really done nothing. Some give him a free pass saying that it’s too hard to make changes during the season, but I think the excuse list for Tambo was too long, and the effort was too little. Talk is cheap, and MacT realizes it and said it himself, but I have a good feeling that he will fix problems rationally… and swiftly, when necessary. I was one of the ones pushing for him to be fired near the end of his coaching stint here, but I’ve always respected him as a strong hockey mind, and a guy who analyses the game really well.

    At any rate, I feel the team is in really good hands under MacT… if only Katz would just clean out some of the other riff raff up there.

  69. hunter1909 says:

    Lowetide,

    Religious Education?

  70. asiaoil says:

    Woodguy:
    Looking at the final SV% for goalies this year, and I think I see why they might be trying to upgrade on Doobie.

    If you look at all goailes who played at least 15 games this year DD ranks 22nd in 5v5 SV%

    If you add in goalies who have played 14 games its 24th.

    5v5 SV% has been shown to be the best tool for projecting goaltending performance.

    4v5 SV% fluctuates radically and adds noise to the overall SV% (not that 4v5 isn’t important, it just isn’t as repeatable and isn’t useful when trying to project future performance)

    DD’s 5v5 last 3 years:

    2013 .922
    2012 .927
    2011 .921

    Not terrible, but remember that when looking at 5v5 the median for NHL starting goalies is usually .927 or so.

    So DD is projecting to be slightly less than average for a NHL starter.Not terrible, but not good.

    This year DD’s 4v5 SV% buoyed his overall SV%.

    DD’s 4v5 SV% last 3 years

    2013 .907
    2012 .854
    2011 .889

    Median for NHL starters tends to be about .890 for 4v5

    So while DD isn’t Pavelec bad as a starter, he’s not projecting to be anything more than a slightly less than average starter.

    To be clear:DD wasn’t the problem this year.Not at all.

    If MacT is going to strive for excellence though, there is nothing wrong with doing so in the goaltending position as well.

    As long as he doesn’t overpay in $ or term of course.Heh.

    Trying hard to make DD look average huh? Using goalies playing only 14 or 15 game is not valid – too small a sample. Guy has been steady as hell in front of a defense that could charitably be call “a pile of garbage” the last three years and improved steadily. He’s still young and his best days are certainly still ahead. Is he a top 5 starter in the league – probably no – but at this point in time you can certainly say he’s a top 15 guy. I’ve always projected him as a top 10 starter who will be just below the elite guys – plenty good enough to win with.

    It’s a ridiculous waste of assets to upgrade in goal right now (other than backup) given the other holes on this team. I laid out a three year plan 3 years ago for DD and he hit all the marks going from backup – to 1B guy – to starter in the final year of Nik’s contract. Largely forgotten in last nights 3rd period craziness was DD’s saves on the breakaway series with the game tied 2-2 – he’s handily outplayed Luongo this season and people want to downgrade both in terms of results and salary. Luongo crumpled like a wet paper bag playing in front of a defense that was JUST LIKE THE OILERS over the past 3 years. People seriously devalue how mentally tough DD has become to put up good results in front of a team as defensively inept as the Oilers have been over the past 3 years.

  71. spoiler says:

    You know, this Dauphin kid really makes things happen.

  72. spoiler says:

    Woodguy: Burning down the house baby!

    In line with your thoughts of burning everything Talking Heads ever did.

    Okay, now we’re on a road to nowhere.

    ;o)

  73. SoxandOil says:

    Also I want to float a possible trade target then would help the LW and C depth issues. Dubinsky.

    I know I’m going to get lambasted for suggesting this but Gagner for Dubinsky. I don’t know if this is fair or a pipe dream or even a undersell but Dubie has 2 more years on his contract (for a lower cap hit then we can reasonably sign Samwise for) plus would bring a different skillset to the top 6 then we currently have. His point total wasn’t great this year especially goals but it would be a nice sell high buy low. Plus if Edmonton is lucky enough to draft a Lindholm or Monahan then they could be broken in beside Horcov on the 3rd line wing position and Center would look pretty solid as early as next year.

    I love Samwise but not as much as 4, 14, 64, 93.

    Am I still drunk?

  74. spoiler says:

    spoiler: Lol… Yes those would all be nice things, and needed too.

    Some of this post disappeared into the blockquote, dunno how… It should be:

    Lol… Yes those would all be nice things, and needed too.

    I think I would be okay if the PF and the C were the same guy.

    Last night Gagner was trying to frustrate me… Before the Schultz goal, Nick gets into a battle in his own corner and loses his lid. Canucks throw another guy into that corner and Jr comes across the crease to stay man-on…

    The pass goes cross ice to the far post where there’s no defenseman, except who made the read and picked up the man and the vacated defenseman’s slot?

    Samwise…

    The play goes back up the ice, Ebs gets absolutely stoned by Lou, but then Hall captures the puck behind the net after a good Fistric pinch and slips a nice pass the Jr Schultz who is cruising the top of the crease.

    Who is also cruising the top of the crease three feet behind Schultz instead of breaking off to cover the open point?

    Samunwise.

  75. striatic says:

    Lowetide: All Tambellini had to do was put in a waiver claim once in a damn while. Holy smokes.

    the wasted waiver priority is going to be one of the more enduring aspects of Tambo’s legacy.

  76. sliderule says:

    If the oil add some players bigger and better for bottom six they will have to change their forecheck at least for that group.
    The aggressive two one two with pinching D will not work with bigger slower players.
    They will have to use their size to trap and clog up neutral zone.
    That will be a real challenge for this group of coaches.

  77. Hammers says:

    At this stage Tambellini gone is a blessing . McT will I think, shock us . I see comments from many as to who goes etc but I expect a change of about 10-12 players . The obvious will go and thats 6-7 but I’m expecting some surprises . I also wonder who McT gets as his Reasoner & Stoll type players.Somewhere above somebody said Horc Hemsky & Magnus for 3rd line . Looks OK to me. So he will need a 2nd line LW . But who ????? and will he replace Gags . so 2nd line C . . The most important thing is a 25-28 year old “D” and a 33-35 yr old “D” . As for Luongo don’t forget Gillis was McT’s agent and right now Luongo wants tp play . Just get Van to eat some $$$$ if he does it .

  78. leadfarmer says:

    SoxandOil,

    I dont think Columbus does this trade. I would probably do it though. Gagner is still one of my favorite players but we really could use a 2way center to help Horcoff with tough minutes and help the kids defensively.
    RNH, Dubinsky, Horcoff, for the love of God not Lander. vs
    RNH, Ganger, Horcoff, for the love of God not Lander.

    The top one has more skill, but the bottom one wins more games.

  79. asiaoil says:

    SoxandOil:
    Also I want to float a possible trade target then would help the LW and C depth issues. Dubinsky.

    No it’s a decent trade – but I’d rather deal the #1 pick for Couturier if possible – and then trade Gagner for a dman. Dubinsky is a good fit as a #2 center who can also slide up to play with Yak and Hal – and by the way – those two guys together will be unreal. Let Eberle be a 2nd line soft comp killer.

    2C and 2LW are the issues that need to be dealth with and we have Gags, Hemsky and the #1 as bait. I’d also use the #2 picks for bottom 6 players that help in this cap challenge off-season.

  80. G Money says:

    asiaoil: Trying hard to make DD look average huh? Using goalies playing only 14 or 15 game is not valid – too small a sample. Guy has been steady as hell in front of a defense that could charitably be call “a pile of garbage” the last three years and improved steadily. He’s still young and his best days are certainly still ahead. Is he a top 5 starter in the league – probably no – but at this point in time you can certainly say he’s a top 15 guy. I’ve always projected him as a top 10 starter who will be just below the elite guys – plenty good enough to win with.

    It’s a ridiculous waste of assets to upgrade in goal right now (other than backup) given the other holes on this team. I laid out a three year plan 3 years ago for DD and he hit all the marks going from backup –to 1B guy –to starter in the final year of Nik’s contract. Largely forgotten in last nights 3rd period craziness was DD’s saves on the breakaway series with the game tied 2-2 – he’s handily outplayed Luongo this season and people want to downgrade both in terms of results and salary. Luongo crumpled like a wet paper bag playing in front of a defense that was JUST LIKE THE OILERS over the past 3 years.People seriously devalue how mentally tough DD has become to put up good results in front of a team as defensively inept as the Oilers have been over the past 3 years.

    * slow clap *

    This point cannot be overemphasized.

    Just think of how bloody painful it has been as a FAN to watch Whitney, Barker, Plante, and hell, even J. Schultz the last half of this season, not to mention Belanger, Petrell, VDV, Brown, Hordichuk, etc..

    Imagine having to watch those guys IN FRONT OF YOU night after night, AND clean up their mistakes to boot.

    We should just be thankful Doobie isn’t asking for a trade to Ponoka.

  81. Woodguy says:

    asiaoil,

    Trying hard to make DD look average huh? Using goalies playing only 14 or 15 game is not valid – too small a sample.

    I’m not trying to do anything, just put out the info and give an opinion.

    Perhaps I should use 18 games this year as it pro-rates to 30 in a full season as you remove the small sample goalies and try to just get the starters and the goalies who split time fairly evenly.

    This whole season is a small sample so the numbers aren’t as telling as those in a full year, but you have to look at the 4v5 SV% and *know* it won’t stay there.

    Using 18 games, he pro-rates to 21st in 5v5 SV%

  82. Lois Lowe says:

    Schultz and Yak have to be in the running for the Calder, but to my eyes it’s likely going to Gallagher, Galchenyuk, or Saad.

  83. Woodguy says:

    SoxandOil,

    I can see a very large CBJ-EDM trade possible this summer.

    Each team has what the other lacks.

  84. Woodguy says:

    Lois Lowe:
    Schultz and Yak have to be in the running for the Calder, but to my eyes it’s likely going to Gallagher, Galchenyuk, or Saad.

    Eastern media (where most of the votes are) love Huberdeau.

    He and Yak are tied for the points lead, so he’d be my favourite if I were betting on it.

  85. SK Oiler Fan says:

    Thought MacT was great last night.
    Re: more impactful bottom 6 – Think Belanger going through the motions in the last half.
    Re: Improved play without the puck from top 6 – Think seeing #89 appearing too late into the picture after an opposition goal
    Re: positive that they could put up goals without many chances – Think there are some highly skilled players here
    Re: We seldom controlled the momentum swings – think when the intensity increased at key moments we didn’t have enough players that could stave off a strong push from the opposition. Goaltending might be part of this discussion.

    Real honest assesment of some key areas for this team to improve upon. No way you’d get that from bumbelini. However, as MacT said, talk is cheap. Now the hard part – actually doing something about it.

    Pretty sad, it’s the same issues as last season. ST just didn’t do anything. The minimal improvement over last year mostly came from the core being a year older.

  86. TheOtherJohn says:

    I certainly hope MacT makes the necessary moves to get us where we need to go.

    I think a top pairing guy should be the highest priority. We also need another top 4 D. J Schultz should be the proof needed to keep Klefbom in the AHL for 60 games next year. The last 15 games Schultz was bad (atrocious, abysmal…etc) If you look at their usage in the SEL, Klefbom is not Brodin. And was injured all year

    I think Dubnyk is a adequate starting goalie.not elite but adequate NHL starter. A Ben Bishop type as a backup would be nice. Conversing with Bruce M and we should identify teams that go 3-4 deep with strong goalers in minors. The 3-4 guys should be identified and traded for. Our prospect goalers, like our prospect forwards, are not progressing in the minors

    My wish list includes OEL, Brouwer, Boyd Gordon, Stalberg & Bickel. That’s vast improvement in skill, size and one of best PK’ers in NHL. Realize OEL would be prohibitively expensive . I’d still do it. I’d trade for Stalberg/Bickel rights before they need to be signed a la Timmonen/Hartnell.

    Very little discussion on Kruger but did he do anything to make you confident he can guide this team to the playoffs. He shepherded a terrible team the last 3 weeks. terrible.. 2 very good coaches are available in the market: Ruff & Tippett.

  87. Lois Lowe says:

    Woodguy: Eastern media (where most of the votes are) love Huberdeau.

    He and Yak are tied for the points lead, so he’d be my favourite if I were betting on it.

    I would think that Gallagher’s PPG being essentially equal to Yak and Huberdeau’s with less PP time and a better +/- will have a say. 3 points in a 48 game season really isn’t much. I think Yak and Huberdeau likely cancel each other out when looking strictly at boxcars.

  88. leadfarmer says:

    Lois Lowe,

    I think Brodin’s season was the best out of all of them. With the forward rookies pretty much tied the award should really go to him. But I’m sure it will go to someone in the Eastern conference who never watches anyone in the western conference.

  89. Woodguy says:

    Lois Lowe: I would think that Gallagher’s PPG being essentially equal to Yak and Huberdeau’s with less PP time and a better +/- will have a say. 3 points in a 48 game season really isn’t much. I think Yak and Huberdeau likely cancel each other out when looking strictly at boxcars.

    RNH’s pts/gm was vastly superior to Landeskog last year (both had 52 pts, Landeskog in 82gms, RNH in 62 gms)

    Didn’t seem to matter to the voters.

  90. Ryan says:

    That means MacT is shopping for:

    A Pisani type left winger for the Horcoff line (which will also likely include either Hemsky or Paajarvi)
    A center to push Lander down the depth chart
    A better Petrell who can PK, be an effective 4line option and move up the depth chart if needed

    Is that about right?

    Hm, I don’t think a 4c, 3LW, and 4LW is nearly enough roster turnover to improve this club–unless they build an all-world d corps.

    I don’t think the Oilers can keep both Horcoff and Hemsky. In today’s NHL, you pay for offense and $10.5 m for this type of production is very bad value. Combined, their production this season prorates to 75 points over an 82 game season.

    With the cap going down next season, can you field a competitive team with this salary bloat?

    Next year, their cap numbers constitute 1/6 of the team’s salary cap… on 2 players who if paired together don’t even make a particularly effective 3rd line.

    I don’t think the numbers tell us that Horcoff is a particularly good 3C (compared to others around the league). Last time I checked BTN, he was in the range of Colin McDonald (except McDonald had better 5v5 offense).

    Anyways, that’s my 2 cents. I like Hemsky just fine though his production over the past two seasons is not that of a $5m cap player especially considering his lack of “intangibles” like killing penalties / playing physical.

    Of the two, I think a buyout of the captain is necessary, but I don’t know if MacT has the stones. :)

    Either way, it sounds like MacT has his finger on the pulse with what’s wrong with this team and we’ll see what he does this summer.

  91. Lowetide says:

    Woodguy:
    SoxandOil,

    I can see a very large CBJ-EDM trade possible this summer.

    Each team has what the other lacks.

    Gagner plus for Umberger/Tyutin.

  92. Captain Happy says:

    Sacco fired in Colorado.

  93. FastOil says:

    asiaoil: asia

    When DD was drafted a scout who I can’t remember said he thought DD might have been the best goalie in the WHL.

    Because he played on a terrible Blazers team and got barraged nearly every game and held his head together. DD may not be the best goalie in the league but I agree he is good enough to not make a stupid deal, and was basically perfectly apprenticed to be the Oiler goalie at least at this point.

    I wonder what his numbers would look like with a consistently good, confident team in front of him. Maybe through the roof, and then I would consider cashing him in.

  94. Ryan says:

    TheOtherJohn,

    If Tippet’s available, then it would be crazy not to go after him.

    Krueger was left playing a bad hand, but I don’t think there’s compelling evidence that he squeezed much out of this roster or outsmarted the opposing team’s coach on any occasion.

    One of the arguments that’s been floated around is that the Oilers have been terrible with 3 different coaches, therefore coaching is not the problem.

    While that’s true to the extent that the poor roster has likely been the biggest problem, it doesn’t preclude the possibility that coaching is ALSO a problem.

  95. VanOil says:

    My head hurts, I might have enjoyed last night a little to much.

    Quietly, (quietly is important to me today) one Oiler player had a good end to the season.

    Jordan Eberle has finished up with 16 goals. His shooting percentage plummeted, his set up man RNH went stone cold and he played with a hand injury. He still produced the goals. He might be a little over paid for the second best RW on the team but he is still a good hockey player. I look forward to watching him for the next 6 years.

    That other RW is pretty good too but not quiet enough for me to contemplate today. Plus he was being a bully last night when he knocked Eberle over with a pass and smacking one up the side of Kesler’s head.

  96. FastOil says:

    Out of the “soft players” who are MacT’s target (RNH excepted), I think only Eberle gets a pass. He is killing his draft bet and seems to have a scorer’s touch which will remind MacT and Lowe of players they had as team mates as competitors.

    Our friend Gagner on the other hand is on the precipice of becoming a third line centre which would mean he didn’t cover his draft bet. Yes he has been 2nd most productive player from his cohort, but has done this getting minutes he would never have been given on a good team because of how he plays, and while cheerily getting his teeth kicked in.

    The Oilers were counting on him to be a major contributor by this point. He should be one of the players whose play brings the team forward. This is why he gets so little respect from them. He plays like a goal suck and is happy to let others do the hard work, and loves that Horcoff cleans up his messes for him so he still gets his allowance. I don’t dislike him, but he just doesn’t seem to want to do the things that would make him a quality centre, doesn’t seem to want his peer’s respect. Or foolishly maybe he thinks he has it, even though I think he was well included in some of Hall’s remarks.

    The only chance he stays an Oiler long term is a dirt cheap contract, or if MacT wants to run three scoring lines, Sam being 3C. It would mean having a duo for each line and a cheaper support player. Which might work really well if they can draft another centre or find one who is good enough and find the right support player for each duo.

    What bugs me about the “wins” is that we were so close to adding a centre good enough to fix the problem with a high chance of covering the bet. If we get one now he may still be, just the chances are quite a bit lower. While the wins were fun for the young guys they mean nothing to their development or to next year despite the sound bites.

    Hemmer is gonzo. The only reason they keep him is that the return is really lowball. He is the most expendable skill player they have – older than the core playing the only position where there is skill depth. Great player but it is best for the team. He might included in any attempt to move up at the draft.

  97. Woodguy says:

    Lowetide: Gagner plus for Umberger/Tyutin.

    I wouldn’t doubt something like that, but it leaves a gapping hole at C.

    CBJ adds a C and EDM adds a winger?

  98. GordM says:

    Dan Tencer ‏@dantencer 24m
    A “puck moving, powerplay, left-handed shot defenseman” is on Ralph Krueger’s wish list…

    Keith Yandle shoots left.

  99. justDOit says:

    U18 – CANADA IS GOLDEN AGAIN. A 3-2 win for Canada vs. USA, first gold medal since 2008.

    From Team Canada’s twitter.

  100. cabbiesmacker says:

    Woodguy as usual pretty much has it nailed. For this team to take a big step next year which they absolutely HAVE to do there needs to be two new adds to the top 6.

    A LW with credentials to play with 93 and 14, and a C with same to play with 4 and 64. The Hall/Yak C just has to be a puck distributor, faceoff winner, and decent 5v5. RNH and Eberle will kill second minutes.

    83 around until the trade deadline with 10 & 91. If the Oilers are lulled into believing 91 can play top 6 LW they’re sadly mistaken and will delay the “big” step further.

    Don’t really care about the 4th line at all. It can be Moe, Larry, and Curly or Crosby, Stills, and Nash. In the big picture it doesn’t matter.

    Two D adds are probably required but I don’t subscribe in the slightest that Weber types are required and that if you improve the D the forwards will just automatically look better. That’s just folly.

    MacT will have a tough offseason for sure. He has two pretty big trading chips in the first rounder and 89. Outside of that it’s trash for trash unless there’s a team out there that for some reason unknown to man, is in love with one of the Oiler AHL prospects.

    P.S. Gotta hope anyone interested in 89 only has access to stats from the first half of this year or just wants to bump their PP and 4 v 4. The guy is so old news.

  101. dessert1111 says:

    Eberle will be fine, one goal off the team lead playing with a broken finger half the season and his primary assist-giver with a broken shoulder. If healthy, next year RNH Yak Ebs and Hall should all be around a PPG, J Schultz over .5PPG.

  102. Gerta Rauss says:

    What bugs me about the “wins” is that we were so close to adding a centre good enough to fix the problem with a high chance of covering the bet. If we get one now he may still be, just the chances are quite a bit lower. While the wins were fun for the young guys they mean nothing to their development or to next year despite the sound bites.

    A look at the final standings last night shows that even if Edm would have lost both of the final 2 games, the highest they would have picked was 5th. Speeds posted a twitter exchange last night between Pronman and BobMac and they both talked about a “top 4 and a top 7 tier” and after the top 7 it’s anybodys guess. We’ll see how the draft shakes out but I don’t think Edm ever had a chance at Barkov. Sure, picking 5th is better than picking 7th, but there is a chance we can still get Monahan at 7, and we’re still in that top 7 range to get a good player.

  103. justDOit says:

    Gerta Rauss,

    Unless a team behind the Oilers in draft order wins the lotto – then every team is shifted down by one. That was another important part of getting into 5th – a buffer against getting bumped down.

  104. Gerta Rauss says:

    justDOit,

    Still doesn’t get us Barkov.

  105. Gerta Rauss says:

    Oh, and I just wanted to add that Oregon makes some fine beer. I was drinking the Mirror Pond Ale from the Deschutes brewery last night(their Red Chair is also excellent).

    Carry on.

  106. DBO says:

    Centre: I’ve pined for Boyle for a while now, and I believe he fits our 3/4th line centre with size, grit etc. to a tee. And he is young enough to still contribute in 2 or 3 years. Horc is staying next year, but could be a 2014/15 buyout if needed (because Shultz and Nuge get paid). Gagner is all about how much he wants. I wonder if he is enough to get Yandle straight up.

    Wing: the only thing I am sure, is that we will either overpay for Clowe or Clarkson, or we wlil deal for a tough winger with enough skill to keep up. Mentioned the compliance buyout poaching like Malone form Tampa as cheaper option then Clowe or Clarkson. Not sure if any of them are perfect fits, but I truly believe one of those kinds of players are coming here, and I only pray it is not some ridiculous Eberle for Lucic deal. And Hemsky as a 3rd line killer woud be great, but he may be needed to help fill other needs.

    D: top LD needed. Depth solid dman who can move the puck also needed. I hope Klefbom either dominates in pre season or he starts in the AHL cause he needs some time playing since he missed he missed a ton due to injuries the last few years.

    G: Dubnyk was not the problem. Yes some bad goals and average stats are all true. But he played behind the fricken worst defensive team int he league. Can anyone dispute that we were the worst (ar at least top3) in our zone? He faced more shots then anyone, and a whole crap load of the quality variety. Put some real dmen in front of him, with more responsible forwards and he is a top 15 goalie (which is what we all hope for). Add a better backup to push him (Khudobin from Boston looks right) and run with them behind a real team, not a broken team full of old dues and kids.

  107. justDOit says:

    Gerta Rauss,

    I wasn’t saying it would, but don’t get your sights set on Monahan at 7th, because the Oilers could get bumped to 8th.

  108. TheOtherJohn says:

    I think it’s easier for the Oilers to slide Horcoff up to the 2C slot than it is to find a trade that fills that spot. He would do a good job w Hall & YAK I’d fill in Horcoff’s 3C minutes w Boyd Gordon

    Whatever the Q is, Yandle is not the answer

  109. Bruce McCurdy says:

    cabbiesmacker: Don’t really care about the 4th line at all. It can be Moe, Larry, and Curly or Crosby, Stills, and Nash. In the big picture it doesn’t matter.

    I’m not sure about Stills, but Crosby and Nash would make 2/3 of an outstanding fourth line.

  110. justDOit says:

    Bruce McCurdy,

    Maybe he meant Stillman?

  111. DeadmanWaking says:

    My lemon tree spotted this, which I found amusing even if not actually Arab: A Punjabi Broadcast Draws In New Hockey Fans

    This image ran while the article was on the front page. Demonstrative Pun Jab

    Not three hours after the last post I recall making, I went into a mild episode of hypnagogic delirium. When I tried the same protocol two days later, same result. I had to return my sleep to its natural zip code. The body knows best. Who knew? Then it was just too damn depressing to show up. I’m a wimp.

    My preseason guess was that we’d finish anywhere from 5th to 12th. Despite squeaking into that bracket at the bottom, I consider it a failed prediction, without even considering that my uprights were twenty yards wide.

    It’s not really fair to judge Krueger on a short, compressed season with no opportunity to adjust his coaching strategy mid-stride as he learned on the job. He scratched Whitney. What else could he do? Requisition a larger press box?

    Ryan Whitney rips the Edmonton Oilers’ decision to scratch him

    If Whitney is looking around the room and concludes that Mark Fistric and Corey Potter are punching his meal ticket despite his porous defense, he needs a fresh ticket to nowhere, ASAP.

  112. cabbiesmacker says:

    Bruce McCurdy: I’m not sure about Stills, but Crosby and Nash would make 2/3 of an outstanding fourth line.

    Har.

    You could almost make a case for them being a first line no?

  113. justDOit says:

    DeadmanWaking,

    I think you’ve hit the real reason the Oilers need a new arena – bigger press box!

    Maybe Whitney can go ride Campbell’s coattails in Florida? That would be a perfect destination for him, with pretty much complete anonymity among the fanbase.

  114. Rebilled says:

    justDOit,

    That game was on TSN this morning. 49 shots for the US to 26 I think. Those southern kids were balling their eyes out. Desrosiers stole one for the North.

    Tambo got us the draft picks.

    MacT is here to get us the roster. At least when he talks he addresses the ‘roster’ not the ‘future’.

  115. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Woodguy: Edmonton, with the 2nd worse CF% in the NHL (only TOR was worse), still under performed their CF%, so when MacT says ““the positive part of that is that we didn’t need a lot of chances to score.”, I question that statement.
    If you take out the 5v4 goals, the Oilers didn’t convert on chances at an outstanding rate at all.

    Just because you choose to take out the 5v4 goals doesn’t mean MacT does. Conversion of chances on the powerplay is part of the big picture.

    Counting up all goals including empty netters but not shootouts, Oilers were 21st in G% (.484) but 29th in Shots% (.450). Oilers’ differential of +.034 between the two ranked 6th overall. Calculated another way, their gross PDO of 1.012 also ranked 6th. Of course that consists of conversion rates For minus conversion rates Against, but Oil were (just) inside the top third in both parts of that equation: 10th in Sh% and 9th in “Sv%” (ENGA not filtered out).

    Have to admit I don’t get where this “Dubnyk’s not cutting it” is coming from. He just demolished his own club record for Sv% with .920, and while I realize league-wide Sv% is something of a rising tide, he’s rising faster than the league as a whole and is above average now and still improving. Oilers gave up more empty netters than a lot of teams (befitting a losing team) but even without weeding those out their “Sv%” of .917 was well better than the league rate of .909.

    Part of the credit should also go to Khabibulin, who had pretty good results as the #2 man. Small sample size, but his Sv% was solid and he stole a couple of wins along the way. He wasn’t the problem (this year) and neither was DD.

  116. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: This:
    “the positive part of that is that we didn’t need a lot of chances to score.”
    Gave me pause…

    I didn’t mind that as one part of his summation of the bigger picture, immediately on the heels of “we had great (negative) shot differential in most of the games, which is generally a pretty good indicator of team strength”. Obviously he intends to work on that part. The thing about percentages is IF they are indeed on your side, you can be successful by ~breaking even on Corsi/shots/scoring chances/whatever. It’s a mighty big if, but recognition of what you got, both weaknesses and strengths, is important.

  117. Bruce McCurdy says:

    cabbiesmacker: Har.

    You could almost make a case for them being a first line no?

    If you got the right Crosby and the right Nash, you could put Stephen Stills on the wing and they’d still be your first line.

  118. Mr DeBakey says:

    sliderule:
    Since changing bottom six mix is one of MacTs goals I thought to compare Kings bottom six to ours.
    I used the oilers lineup from last night

    Kings average wt 217lbs total goals 20 total plus minus – 8
    Oil. Average wt 198lbs total goals 9.Total plus minus -22

    The oil weigh an average of 20 lbs less
    .I was surprised how few goals the king bottom six scored.I knew the oildidn’t score.
    The kings bottom six only gave up 8 goals more than they scored while oil gave up 22.
    I guess you could say the difference of 14 mighthave given us at five or six more wins and put us close to playoffs.

    How big are the Bottom Sixes of the Panthers & Avalanche?
    That would give us a better picture of this story.

  119. FastOil says:

    We don’t know what the Oilers look at for analysis, but MacT and RK saying the team will be bigger and stronger seems like a proxy for better puck possession. We know they look at Corsi in a way.

    The question and possible problem is whether they see the problem as simply size, or have a deeper understanding of it.

    Being big (above average NHL size) means nothing certain other than the player is probably slow. The thing we can hang onto was MacT’s comment about grit without skill.

    Playoffs are a war, but physical play calms down a lot as teams try to avoid penalties (other than aberrant series like the Canucks and Bruins). Quickness is a better asset than size then IMO. Tenacity is better than size. We saw the Sharks clear out the cement skate blade guys and play better while losing team weight.

    The problem with the Oilers is too many passive players who are comfortable being ineffective or just can’t play any better. Or in Whitney’s case Turretish while being uncomfortable and ineffective.

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