STOP MAKING SENSE VOLUME 2

Ralph Krueger’s exit interview Sunday gave us some clues about what direction the team will be headed next season. Based on word and tone, I think we’re going to see some major changes, and probably at least one big name heading out of town. All of the quotes below are courtesy Edmonton Oilers twitter:

  • Krueger on the roster: “We will be a better team next year and there will be some personnel changes, we all know that.”
  • Krueger on Dubnyk: “He took another step but he’s still far away from his full potential, which is exciting.”
  • Krueger on 5×5 play: “You need to combine grit with skill.”
  • Krueger on his shopping list: “A puck moving, powerplay, left-handed shot defenseman”

This falls in line with what MacT said last night and what we’re hearing. Dubnyk is progressing but they’re not completely satisfied–explains the interest in Ben Bishop and opens the door for further Luongo rumors. The item about combining grit and skill suggests we’re going to see an NHL winger with size airlifted onto the roster (probably 2line LW). Someone in the Milan Lucic-Curtis Glencross-RJ Umberger family would be my guess.

And the last item is Mark Streit family.

So, if you’re going to get a big winger with size, skill and attitude who is also an actual NHL player, there are three things that have value:

  • Picks and prospects
  • taking on cap dollars
  • Oilers roster players

The Oilers have:

  • a top 10 pick this year and several prospects of note
  • cap room
  • players who may be available

My preference would be for the Oilers to trade some cap space for a useful winger who can actually play. That may or may not be enough. If they’re adding a player to the top 6, then someone is heading out of town or moving down the depth chart:

  1. Taylor Hall: foundation centerpiece
  2. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins: major building block
  3. Nail Yakupov: See Nuge
  4. Jordan Eberle: I cannot see them trading the guy. He’s part of the cluster of youth, it’s too soon to break up the band.
  5. Sam Gagner: leaves a hole at center, can play with these supremely skilled wingers and deliver points.
  6. Ales Hemsky: Remains an effective player when healthy, his health, price tag and impending free agency may impact value.
  7. Magnus Paajarvi: Had a very nice season, solidified his place in the NHL and can slide up and down the batting order. Probably doesn’t have enough value to get desired return on his own.

WHAT DOES IT ALL MEAN?

MOONRISE KINGDOM

It means we’re probably going to be surprised, shocked, nonplussed, stunned, agog, when the trade goes down. Unless the Oilers can use the cap room, the first round pick or prospects and secondary moderns to pluck a PF out of an NHL city, then we’re talking one of the cornerstones of the cluster being changed out for a new man. An extremely dangerous way for the new GM to begin his regime.

If we’re looking for clues, Sam Gagner not making Team Canada for the WHC’s might be one. Kevin Lowe is part of the management group, and Gagner had a much better season than Matt Read (who is on the team). Could be nothing, maybe Gagner was injured or done (he was off his pace down the stretch, 14, 1-6-7 -3 in April). I’m hoping they keep Gagner.

We wait, secure in the knowledge there’s something on the horizon aside from crickets.

OR………..

I may have suggested this is the past, but there is one other idea that could work: the 3-for-1. Unlike the urban legends ‘three scoring lines’ and ’50/50 winner is Lowetide’ the three for one HAS been seen in my lifetime: Eric Brewer, Jeff Woywitka and Doug Lynch for Chris Pronger.

The Oilers could gather up some nice things for the PF: say Paajarvi (I know, I know), Marincin and a 2012 2nd rd pick for one of these NHL power forwards? Or, 1st rd pick, Hartikainen and something.

Three for one. It’s time has come.

THE LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

big lebowski

This morning at 10am Edmonton time it’s a brand new show–”The Lowdown with Lowetide”–on the TEAM 1260. The show will focus on hockey but we’ll tackle other sports (especially during the off-season). The format will be very similar to the Saturday show, and I hope you can join me. If not, and you’d like to hear the show after it airs, all programs are downloaded into “podcasts” on the TEAM 1260 site (there’s a prompt on the home page) within minutes of show’s end.

Scheduled to appear:

Now, we’re going to try a call-in segment on this show, I’m hoping some of you will call in with intelligent comments. :-) I’ll also read emails and tweets (I can’t remember which segment is open line) and look forward to it. Hope you can tune in!

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94 Responses to "STOP MAKING SENSE VOLUME 2"

  1. godot10 says:

    Matt Read is primarily a RW, right. Gagner is primarily a centre.

    Stamkos, Staal, Staal, Giroux, Duschene, O’Reilly.

    No disgrace that Gagner can’t crack that set of centres. Heck, Eric Staal will probably be forced to the wing.

  2. Woodguy says:

    Kent Simpson from Team 1260′s Oil Kings broadcasts. Kent will update us on the Oil Kings as they get ready for the WHL final starting later this week in Portland.

    Don’t they have to beat CAL in game 7 before they prepare for the final?

    Also,

    I think a volume for volume trade is coming.

    Given Howson’s familiarity and CBJ’s needs and surpluses, it makes sense that it could be them.

    Also,

    Won’t be able to hear the first show live, but looking forward to the podcast.

    Good luck sir!

  3. Lowetide says:

    Still, Gagner can play wing too and if he went Team Canada could play the Oiler line from day one. I’m not saying it’s certain and chances are someone will have a nagging something injury and he’ll get the call.

    Just one of those things to observe.

  4. Lowetide says:

    Woodguy:
    Kent Simpson from Team 1260′s Oil Kings broadcasts. Kent will update us on the Oil Kings as they get ready for the WHL final starting later this week in Portland.

    Don’t they have to beat CAL in game 7 before they prepare for the final?

    Also,

    I think a volume for volume trade is coming.

    Given Howson’s familiarity and CBJ’s needs and surpluses, it makes sense that it could be them.

    Also,

    Won’t be able to hear the first show live, but looking forward to the podcast.

    Good luck sir!

    Damn! I wrote it when they were up by two, lol. Thanks WG, looking forward to it!

  5. Hammers says:

    Still feel the first need is a 25-28 year old “D” and I would use the 1st pick + if the right guy is there .Then another “D” from UFA group or a salary dump . Last is the big L wing . Expect Habby , Whit , Peckham ,Plante , Belanger , Eager , Hordichuck , Pettrell , Jones , all to be gone maybe Smithson as well .. That is a huge dump of players but is needed .

  6. Hammers says:

    Still leaves us with DD , Schultz & Schultz , Petry & Smid . Potter & Fistric , RNH line , Gags Yak & LW , Horc Hemsky & Magnus , Lander Hartski Smyth & Brown .

  7. godot10 says:

    The 1st round pick should be used on a centre to replace Gagner in two years. This is a deep draft and the Oilers best shot at getting a 2nd centre who will be affordable when the front end of the cluster is beginning to peak.

    Offer sheet Gunnarsson at the max 2nd round level. Toronto has a lot of D, and a lot of D to sign. If that fails, offer sheet Tanev. Chicago has to sign Leddy. Hjalmarsson should be available in trade.

    A good GM can find more creative ways to get players for a rebuilding team than using 1st round draft picks in trades. A bad GM does that.

  8. DBO says:

    Excited for you LT. Look forward to stealing some time at the office to listen, closed door conference calls you know.

    I mentioned yesterday going after cap teams by sending a cheaper player maybe with a prospect for a player they may buyout. We still have issues attracting top end guys. Maybe in a few years it’ll be better, but right now it’s not. So trading for someone is only way. The elusive 3 for 1 could work, or the cap trade. Or both.

    You mentioned Umberger. – ugly length on the contract but solid player.
    Malone – fits our need, and only 2 yrs left on deal and Tampa has serious cap issues and money issues so they won’t buyout Lecavalier.
    Laich. – can play wing or centre and Washington needs the cap space if they want to bring back Ribeiro.

  9. godot10 says:

    Unless one is a little bit lucky, the only way one find top centres is high in the draft. The biggest gap in the cluster right now is the 2nd centre to pair with Nugent-Hopkins.

    The 1st round has to be used to try getting that 2nd centre.

  10. DBO says:

    And we have a 2 year window. Really almost a one year. Based on money next year is our best cap situation for a long time. The compliance buyout will be used after next season. And when Yak is to be paid then ar prob see one of the top kids dealt.

    So go for 1 year overpays or deal for money players on cap teams. 2 year window at most. Have to run for it now.

  11. DBO says:

    Target Malone and Laich for prospects and cheaper players. Deal Gagner for a young higher end D. Possibly dangle Hemsky, but I doubt he brings much unless you package him with our 1st to move up in draft. Sign Streit for 2 years.

    Hall – Nuge -Eberle
    Malone – Laich – Yakupov
    Paajarvi – Horcoff – Hemsky
    Smyth – Lander /vet ufa – Brown
    Hartikainen

    Streit – Petry
    Smid – Shultz
    Shultz – Ellis
    Potter

  12. godot10 says:

    DBO:
    And we have a 2 year window. Really almost a one year. Based on money next year is our best cap situation for a long time. The compliance buyout will be used after next season. And when Yak is to be paid then ar prob see one of the top kids dealt.

    So go for 1 year overpays or deal for money players on cap teams. 2 year window at most. Have to run for it now.

    This is crazy talk. Sustained competiveness is what we want. We want to become Detroit under Holland.

    Nugent-Hopkins and Justin Schultz are almost certainly headed towards two year transitional 2nd contracts, which means their cap hits are likely not going much for three years.

    The Oilers are currently paying ridiculous amount of money for 3rd line players (Hemksy, Horcoff, Smyth). This rolls off. And many people on this blog endorsed those Hemsky and Smyth deals.

    The Oilers have a comfortable 3-year window.

  13. tcho says:

    DBO,

    Something along the lines of this is fine. The young core is progressing. We have a lot (not all – see top end D) of the harder to get pieces. The only thing I think we would be justified in pulling off a big trade for (Eberle leaves town, for ex.) would be such a D. They sure need to be right about the D though! If he turns into another N. Schultz… we’re screwed. The devil’s in the details though.

  14. nelson88 says:

    Should be an intriguing draft given the Oilers position and the increased chance for deals to get done in general (cap falling, Flames and Blue Jackets with multiple picks. We have guests in town or I would be taking the flight to NJ.

    Would love to see the Oilers target Nashville as a trade partner for the #4 pick (assuming you can get Barkov). The Preds historically build from the back end out, are the lowest scoring team in the league and you would think they need a “quick” rebuild before you have more players like Erat looking to be moved out of town.

    #7, Hemsky and take back some salary if need be might get you #4. Preds get a nice offensive boost while still being able to draft someone like Darnell Nurse (I see him on the same trajectory as Dougie Hamilton) who will be a nice piece in 2 – 3 years.

  15. BlueNoteNorth says:

    LT

    Looking forward to the show.

    Not sure what is appropriate when launching a new radio show, but anyway, as per Hemsky, break a leg sir… make that foot.

  16. sliderule says:

    This is the center draft.

    The oil will never have a better chance to draft a top line center for a long time.

    If Barkov Lindholm or Monahan are available the oil will make a big mistake if they trade the pick.

    Heck I think even Domi if he measures at 185 lbs might be fine.I haven’t seen him much but he has a lot of PMs which usually show in your face grit.

    With the cap going down use those second rounders and farm to pick up guys like Clutterbuck and a top four defender.

  17. regwald says:

    sliderule,

    I watched a lot of the Mem Cup last year and felt that Domi was more dominating and carried the play way more than Lazar did in any of the games I watched. He does seem a bit on the small side, but has his Dad’s stocky build.

    That said, I think the Oil Kings didn’t do themselves any favours by having long series all the way through the WHL and was the last team to qualify for the tourney last year. They did look tired and just happy to be there.

  18. leadfarmer says:

    3 for 1 trade: Plante, VDV, Teubert for a 6th. Does that count.
    Dont trade this draft pick unless its for someone really good.
    Thankfully Luongo can pick what 4 teams he wants to go to preventing any managerial stupidity.

  19. striatic says:

    MacT confirms at least 6 new Oilers next year.

    but what does that really mean when you’re replacing Smithson, Petrell, Whitney, Sutton, Peckham, Khabibulin?

  20. Mark-LW says:

    Does anyone know anything about the analytic’s guy that MacT talked about in After Hours and again in the press conference?

  21. Gerta Rauss says:

    I only caught the tail end of the MacT presser-I’ll post the whole thing when it’s available.

    First impressions, I found it a bit of a tell in that when he was asked about specific players he sometimes gave lengthy answers regarding the player, but in the case of Hemsky and Khabi he deferred and talked about the human element and wanted to talk to the player first before saying anything publicly. He did talk at length about Gagner, and did mention moving him to the wing(although that was in the context of discussing faceoffs specifically)

  22. Gerta Rauss says:

    Mark-LW,

    The company is Darkhorse analytics, and apparently it’s hocus pocus per MacT..:)

    edit-Seriously though, he did say the data was just one of the tools you use when making decisions about a player.

  23. Beaker says:

    striatic:
    MacT confirms at least 6 new Oilers next year.

    but what does that really mean when you’re replacing Smithson, Petrell, Whitney, Sutton, Peckham, Khabibulin?

    Technically, that could mean a lot if you are replacing crappy players like you mentioned with good players :) If the 6 players they were replacing were Hall, RNH, Eberle, Yak, Schultz and Petry we might be in serious trouble.

  24. hags9k says:

    I’m hoping for a unicorn 3 for 1 involving Hemsky for the LD or to a lesser extent the LWPF, but I agree with LT that the actual trade is likely to turn our collective stomachs right over.

    I still fear Yak City could be leaving town. (although the after hours comments did reassure me a bit)

    Godspeed MacT. Put this thing back on the tracks!!

    Oh and Yak for the Calder all the way. Don’t recall Huberdeau or Brodin ever sliding on their knees across center ice. AND led rookies in goals and goals batted out of mid air by a wide margin. Cmon! :)

  25. Beaker says:

    Gerta Rauss:
    Mark-LW,

    The company is Darkhorse analytics, and apparently it’s hocus pocus per MacT..:)

    Oilers Stats ‏@OilersStats 17h
    Rumors are that Dark Horse Analytics is actually just Nail Yakupov counting his own goals pic.twitter.com/3boehiFQcZ

    Lolz

  26. Mark-LW says:

    Gerta Rauss,

    Yeah that hocus pocus comment caught me a little off guard. I worry about them using a stats guy who “doesn’t know much about hockey” (paraphrased, I don’t remember the exact quote)

    Here is the only hockey related thing I can find on Darkhorse’s website about hockey:

    http://darkhorseanalytics.com/blog/payroll-and-playoffs/

    EDIT: They also have a link to a Discovery Channel episode where they are featured, talking hockey

    http://watch.discoverychannel.ca/scoring-with-science/scoring-with-science-web-extras/#clip800684

  27. Beaker says:

    Mark-LW:
    Gerta Rauss,

    Yeah that hocus pocus comment caught me a little off guard.I worry about them using a stats guy who “doesn’t know much about hockey” (paraphrased, I don’t remember the exact quote)

    Here is the only hockey related thing I can find on Darkhorse’s website about hockey:

    http://darkhorseanalytics.com/blog/payroll-and-playoffs/

    I took that to mean that the guy is looking at stats objectively without the saw him good bias which is what managements and scouts job is. I dont mind that at all if they use the information properly.

  28. striatic says:

    Beaker: Technically, that could mean a lot if you are replacing crappy players like you mentioned with good players If the 6 players they were replacing were Hall, RNH, Eberle, Yak, Schultz and Petry we might be in serious trouble.

    what i mean is that you aren’t really replacing many “minutes” when you replace those guys.

  29. Beaker says:

    striatic,

    Gotcha though i do think were probably seeing a number of players leave and some that do play actual minutes:

    Jones, Whitney, Fistric, Petrell, Smithson, Belanger, probably Smyth,, Khabibulin, Sutton (doesnt really count), Peckham and probably one of Hemsky or Gagner.

    1-3 of those might stick around but that still a significant haul of players out.

    I imagine players coming in are Hartikianen, New backup, 2 new Dmen, and 2nd line RW, 4th line RW, 4th line LW and 4th line C

    Thats not even taking into account some trade that might somehow make a significant change to the top 6. Though I think if a big trades going to happen its a D that gets targeted.

  30. LMHF#1 says:

    What happened to the blog for that hour or so LT? That was strange.

  31. SoxandOil says:

    3 for 1: Hemsky, Teubert and a 2nd or other prospect (Pitlick) to Ottawa for Spezza. Ottawa has been playing great without him and Edmonton would be doing them a favour with the shinking cap (Spezza has 2 more years at a $7mill hit).

    1 for 1: Gagner for Dubinsky

    Draft Monahan hopefully.

    Hall — Spezza — Yakupov
    Dubinsky — Nuge — Eberle
    Paajarvi — Horcoff — Monahan
    Smyth — Lander — Harti

    Brown would be a extra, Dubinsky would shift to C with Nuge recovering from surgery and PRV would slide up. Absolute pipe dream but thats what the off season is all about. Sure Spezza would be risky after his own surgery but a deal like this is what could be available with the Cap shrinking. By the time Spezza’s contract is up (2 years) Nuge would slide up to 1 and Monahan would shift to 2 and Lander 3.

  32. bookje says:

    LMHF#1:
    What happened to the blog for that hour or so LT? That was strange.

    LT forgot to pay his existence bill and was nearly relegated to simply existing in the real world, radio, and drifting electronic aether like Twitter. It looks like he sent off his $19.95 or whatever Danikca Patrick costs these days and he now exists in his permanent home again.

  33. leadfarmer says:

    SoxandOil,

    Holly Hfboards Batman. Why would ottawa do that.

  34. Rocknrolla says:

    SoxandOil:
    3 for 1: Hemsky, Teubert and a 2nd or other prospect (Pitlick) to Ottawa for Spezza. Ottawa has been playing great without him and Edmonton would be doing them a favour with the shinking cap (Spezza has 2 more years at a $7mill hit).

    1 for 1: Gagner for Dubinsky

    Draft Monahan hopefully.

    Hall — Spezza — Yakupov
    Dubinsky — Nuge — Eberle
    Paajarvi — Horcoff — Monahan
    Smyth — Lander — Harti

    Brown would be a extra, Dubinsky would shift to C with Nuge recovering from surgery and PRV would slide up. Absolute pipe dream but thats what the off season is all about. Sure Spezza would be risky after his own surgery but a deal like this is what could be available with the Cap shrinking. By the time Spezza’s contract is up (2 years) Nuge would slide up to 1 and Monahan would shift to 2 and Lander 3.

    Interesting idea.

  35. LMHF#1 says:

    bookje: LT forgot to pay his existence bill and was nearly relegated to simply existing in the real world, radio, and drifting electronic aether like Twitter.It looks like he sent off his $19.95 or whatever Danikca Patrick costs these days and he now exists in his permanent home again.

    I thought for a moment that some renegade Jim Rome fan decided it was time for some internet wrath. Odd timing for a simple coincidence!

  36. Gerta Rauss says:

    http://video.oilers.nhl.com/videocenter/console?catid=4&id=243504

    Above is the After Hours segment on Saturday night

  37. Lowetide says:

    Thank you very much to whomever paid for my Go Daddy for another year. Jesus. I love you people. I raced to the phone to pay the damn thing and it was done. I’m touched. Truly.

  38. bookje says:

    Lowetide:
    Thank you very much to whomever paid for my Go Daddy for another year. Jesus. I love you people. I raced to the phone to pay the damn thing and it was done. I’m touched. Truly.

    Damn, I didn’t know that was possible or I would have done that.

  39. TheOtherJohn says:

    Godot

    You have stated at least twice “Nugent-Hopkins and Justin Schultz are almost certainly headed towards two year transitional 2nd contracts, which means their cap hits are likely not going much for three years”

    You state this based no evidence and yet the Oilers under both Lowe and Tambellini have ZERO difficulty paying a player for a single good year. Horcoff & Eberle being the poster child for those kind of stupid deals. Moreover RNH and JSchu are unique in that they are the only 1C and PP QB we have. If RNH throws up 65 points next year and JSchultz throws up 10 goals and 35 assists, they are both going to get $5m++ contracts. Transitional or otherwise.

    Argument can also be made that both are better players than Eberle. And if YAK does what we expect he may be highest paid Oiler

    But the payroll will not be a problem. sheesh

  40. Captain Obvious says:

    Bohologo:
    I am certain someone has raised this before, and I am equally certain this is not entirely analogous, but the Nordiques/Avalanche traded away three of their #1 picks (Lindros, Sundin, Nolan) to balance what became their eventual winning team. Once you have Sakic and Forsberg, that’s easier to do, but hands up if you would trade one of the exalted core for a championship team.

    I know I would, but I don’t trust Lowe to pull it off, and we haven’t seen what MacT can do.

    Again, not an entirely fair comparison, but still…..

    The problem with that analogy is it presupposes that the Nordiques won because of those trades. I would argue, on the other hand, that they won despite those trades not because of them.*

    * Well you have to separate them. The Lindros trade was one of the best deals of all time and brought in Sundin and Forsberg so there is no world where they keep everyone. However, after the Lindros trade the attempts to “balance” the roster didn’t make those teams better. They transformed what should have been a dynasty into the second best team of its era.

  41. Gerta Rauss says:

    Lowetide,

    It had to be Danny because after the transfer last year I no longer have access to the domain name.

  42. HBomb says:

    Lowetide:
    Thank you very much to whomever paid for my Go Daddy for another year. Jesus. I love you people. I raced to the phone to pay the damn thing and it was done. I’m touched. Truly.

    Are there any means of donating to the Lowetide cause? I’m with Bookie, I’d have paid for the damn thing if I had known there was a way to do it.

    We should start a “Lowetide fund” on PayPal to cover operating expenses (and noting that operating expenses include beer, wine, mid-grade blended scotch, and Jamaican rum…)

  43. LoDog says:

    TheOtherJohn: GodotYou have stated at least twice “Nugent-Hopkins and Justin Schultz are almost certainly headed towards two year transitional 2nd contracts, which means their cap hits are likely not going much for three years” You state this based no evidence and yet the Oilers under both Lowe and Tambellini have ZERO difficulty paying a player for a single good year. Horcoff & Eberle being the poster child for those kind of stupid deals. Moreover RNH and JSchu are unique in that they are the only 1C and PP QB we have. If RNH throws up 65 points next year and JSchultz throws up 10 goals and 35 assists, they are both going to get $5m++ contracts. Transitional or otherwise.Argument can also be made that both are better players than Eberle. And if YAK does what we expect he may be highest paid OilerBut the payroll will not be a problem. sheesh

    How is Eberle’s contract the poster child for bad deals? Guy played with a bum hand for half the season and was on pace for 27 goals and 63 points. Sure Hall looks like he will out perform 6 million by a mile but Eberle looks to at least cover it and I’d venture has a very good chance to be value as well.

  44. Jordan says:

    HBomb: Are there any means of donating to the Lowetide cause? I’m with Bookie, I’d have paid for the damn thing if I had known there was a way to do it.

    We should start a “Lowetide fund” on PayPal to cover operating expenses (and noting that operating expenses include beer, wine, mid-grade blended scotch, and Jamaican rum…)

    That’s a benefits package I can get behind. If you ever decide to hire a recruiter for Lowetide Inc, let me know.

  45. nelson88 says:

    TheOtherJohn,

    Don’t you think it is a little early to be calling the Eberle contract “stupid”? I get the argument that he likely won’t shoot 19% as he did last year but pro-rated over an 82 game season his numbers were 27G and 63 pts. Top 40 in the league for points and top 35 for Goals (not pro-rated). As Bruce mentioned yesterday (?) that isn’t too shabby for an “off” year.

    Paying a 22 year old with a pretty good track record ( now 3 years) of performance, good health (knocks on wood) and one of the faces of your franchise $6M/year is not stupid. Signing a 28 year old about to be on the downside of his career to a 13 years contract with a $7.5M cap hit almost certainly is.

  46. spoiler says:

    Hope the show went well LT and that this means you get your weekends back. That must have been tough time to give up.

    If the mythical 3 for 1 happens, I’m gonna call it a MacTrick.

  47. supernova says:

    Here is to hoping the Oilers sign Bickell and Stalberg from Chicago. Also pick up Horton and / or Clarkson.

    Then use our assets to trade for a 3 for 1 for a LH Defenceman.

    I think Goligski in Dallas, could be available and the pay wouldnt be substanstial in a trade.

  48. Jordan says:

    Hey LT – was thinking a lot since you did a profile of the late great Mike Grier a few days ago at ON. The way he hit, the way he skated, and the fearlessness and work ethic he played with – that’s the player the Oilers need now. Desperately.

    If you ever get a chance to make a suggestion to the people in charge (or the people who know the people in charge) would you please consider suggesting bringing Mike back to mentor and coach the prospects and younger players?

    I can’t help but think that if Pajaarvi (hell, any of the current roster Oilers) could add some Grier to his game, it would completely change the look of this team. With his speed, if he ever learned to skate through people… yeouch… that would probably be worth the cost of admission right there.

  49. TheOtherJohn says:

    Eberle was signed to a $6 million dollars for 6 years. He was signed to that contract based on a single season. Astonishingly! He scored 34 goals based on an unsustainable 18.9 shooting percentage. That is not a snipers shooting percentage,it is simply unsustainable.

    The contract was also based on Eberle improving on last years 76 points.I.e. getting better than 76 pts His scoring this year projected to 63 points over a full season

    This year he shot 12% and was on pace for 27 goals.

    His contract moving forward will be looked at as a bad contract. As an example in Eberle’s draft year Josh Bailey has scored 10 fewer goals and 7 assists He will not be getting $5 million dollars for 3 or 4 years. Tyler Ennis,also from Eberle’s draft year, has 20 fewer goals and 13 fewer assists and is signed to a $2.812m contract.

    Tavares is not a slightly better player. He is younger, a better scorer and is, I believe, a noticeably better player and has a 6 years $5.5m contract.

    The other aspect of the Eberle contract is that it sets the target for the RNH, JSchu and YAK contracts. Each one will argue they are “just as good as Eberle” or “just as valuable to the team as Eberle” & should be paid accordingly.

    None of them would attempt to make that argument with Hall’s contract.

    Get used to the idea. we will have 5 guys making $5.5 m + in 2 years. That is why the Eberle contract is stupid

  50. supernova says:

    TheOtherJohn:
    Eberle was signed to a $6 million dollars for6 years. He was signed to that contract based on a single season. Astonishingly! He scored 34 goals based on an unsustainable 18.9 shooting percentage. That is not a snipers shooting percentage,it is simply unsustainable.

    The contract was also based on Eberle improving on last years 76 points.I.e. getting better than 76 pts His scoring this year projected to 63 pointsover a full season

    This year he shot 12% and was on pace for 27 goals.

    His contract moving forward will be looked at as a bad contract. As an example in Eberle’s draft year Josh Bailey has scored 10 fewer goals and 7 assists He will not be getting $5 million dollars for 3 or 4 years. Tyler Ennis,also from Eberle’s draft year, has 20 fewer goals and 13 fewer assistsand is signed to a $2.812m contract.

    Tavares is not a slightly better player. He is younger, a better scorer and is, I believe, a noticeably better player and has a 6 years $5.5m contract.

    The other aspect of the Eberle contract is that it sets the target for the RNH, JSchu and YAK contracts. Each one will argue they are “just as good as Eberle” or “ust as valuable to the team as Eberle” & should be paid accordingly.

    None of them would attempt to make that argument with Hall’s contract.

    Get used to the idea. we will have 5 guys making $5.5 m + in 2 years. That is why the Eberle contract is stupid

    Retrospectively they should have waited a year on Eb’s contract, but that also means the same thought process on Hall’s. What they might have saved on Eb’s they would have had to up Hall’s.

    Also if you look at the last two seasons he is probably right in the middle of these two. Eberle is quite easily a 25 goal 60 point player, with upside of 35 goals and 80 points. His contract will be fine if you give it a year or two to play out. Especially when you see the contracts signed this year of Getzlaf, Perry and Zajac. Top 6 Players are going to be getting there share of the pie and bottom 6 guys will get term at decent dollars or they might sign 1 year deals hoping for great years.

    Tavares contract is a huge underpay but the Islanders took a big risk as did the oilers with Hall and Eberle and signed these players with only 2 years of production.

    Sometimes you win sometimes you need to be patient and sometimes you lose.

  51. Racki says:

    I’m still baffled how many people have turned on Eberle. This city is absolute shit to play in.

  52. TheOtherJohn says:

    Sorry

    There was no reason to sign a 6 year deal off of a single good season. It was stupid. Would have thought someone would have thought it through. Nor do I believe that the Hall/Eberle contracts were tied to each other. I would have signed the better player first and then signed Eberle pegged off Hall’s contract. Bailey will not be getting 25million and he is a comparable player.

    Tavares contract is a real good contract as is Hall’s.

    They do not, however, make the Eberle contract any less stupid.

    OEL is an elite top pairing D signed to a $5.5 m contract.

  53. TheOtherJohn says:

    Racki

    Have not turned on Eberle one iota. Not at all. Think that he signed a GREAT (for him) contract off of a a single seasons performance. Does not negate he is a real solid top 6 scorer. Just do not believe he is a $6m man

  54. godot10 says:

    Eberle had a “horrible” year. He has one point less than Zach Parise, who got to play witih Miku Koivu, and not an injured Nugent-Hopkins. He had 3 points less than Daniel Sedin, and Sedin will be up for a new contract relatively soon that will cost the Canucks more than $6 million.

    Eberle was 41th in league scoring.

    Hall’s contract is a super bargain. Eberle’s will be very good value for money.

  55. godot10 says:

    godot10:
    Eberle had a “horrible” year.He has one point less than Zach Parise, who got to play witih Miku Koivu, and not an injured Nugent-Hopkins.He had 3 points less than Daniel Sedin, and Sedin will be up for a new contract relatively soon that will cost the Canucks more than $6 million.

    Eberle was 41th in league scoring.

    Hall’s contract is a super bargain.Eberle’s will be very good value for money.

    And Eberle was facing tough competition for the first time also, and regressed all the way back to 41st in league scoring…still safely in the top half of 1st line scorers.

  56. russ99 says:

    Eberle was hurt all year. We trade him now, despite the return, we’ll regret it.

    I wish players were judged much more on what they can bring to the table and much less on their cap number.

    That said, Horcoff has to go. :)

    But seriously, Horcoff goes down to a limited NMC on July 1st: He can provide list of 10 teams to which he will accept a trade. The problem is he needs to be bought out ($4,666,667 spread over 4 years) before July 1st. We can’t ask him to name teams and then buy him out if the return sucks.

  57. supernova says:

    TheOtherJohn:
    Sorry

    There was no reason to sign a 6 year deal off of a single good season. It was stupid. Would have thought someone would have thought it through. Nor do I believe that the Hall/Eberle contracts were tied to each other. I would have signed the better player first and then signed Eberle pegged off Hall’s contract. Bailey will not be getting 25million and he is a comparable player.

    Tavares contract is a real good contract as is Hall’s.

    They do not, however, make the Eberle contract any less stupid.

    OELis an elite top pairing D signed to a $5.5 m contract.

    We will disagree about them being “tied” together.

    They signed within weeks, they are roommates, they hang out in the off-season. they speak of how much they love to play together. They were rookies together.

    Sounds pretty “tied” to me.

    You have to be careful of how teammates view each other as well especially if there are that close.

    They obviously viewed Eberle as highly as Hall as he got the full time “A”

    You are looking at the contracts in a “vacuum” that almost always looks horrible.

  58. denny33 says:

    Glad to see Ralph sees what the whole NHL has been talking about for two years…worth repeating.

    Krueger on 5×5 play: “You need to combine grit with skill.”

    Over to you Mac T….

    Come on Lucky Ball!!

  59. regwald says:

    bookje: Damn, I didn’t know that was possible or I would havedone that.

    i tried to do it as well, but with limited time this morning the only option I could find was to take over the domain name, which isn’t what I wanted. I nearly started sobbing when I couldn’t get to the site this morning … ;)

    Sure glad it’s all back now.

  60. supernova says:

    Racki,

    Racki,

    i agree Edmonton is shit for players to play in.

    Until we turn into a top 4 team in the West our biggest liability is our fans.

    Hate to say it but we make Pronger look right.

  61. FastOil says:

    godot10:
    Unless one is a little bit lucky, the only way one find top centres is high in the draft. The biggest gap in the cluster right now is the 2nd centre to pair with Nugent-Hopkins.

    The 1st round has to be used to try getting that 2nd centre.

    I completely agree with this. My concern is the 2nd C position is what will hamper the team from becoming what we hope for.

    I think a balanced defense group that lacks a star player can work (although JS may be one), I think competent if unspectacular goaltending can work. Talent on the wings is there.

    I don’t think a dominant team can be thin or one dimensional at centre. Chicago may be the exception but they do have two very strong two way centres to carry the load although Bolland’s points are fairly low. But they have Toews who might be the best centre behind Crosby and can be a beast.

    Right now the Oilers have the kid RNH, one way Sam, and a year or so of decent Horcoff. I wouldn’t be trading that pick down or away. Perhaps the 2014 1st if it’s needed.

  62. Racki says:

    TheOtherJohn:
    Racki

    Have not turned on Eberle one iota. Not at all. Think that he signed a GREAT (for him) contract off of a a single seasons performance. Does not negate he is a real solid top 6 scorer. Just do not believe he is a $6m man

    This i can understand. I just think a lot of people are on the “trade Eberle” bandwagon because he had his worst year. He broke his finger, and I think that plays a large part in it. He did have an unsustainable shooting percentage last year, so I don’t think he’s going to be quite as good as that year maybe made him look.. but I still think he’s a pretty valuable core component here. He’s small, which certainly doesn’t help us in that sense, but he overcomes his size with shiftyness and brains. And he’s quite a clutch goal scorer. Anyways, I don’t have to pump his tires, we know what he can bring.

    My point was just that fans are very quick to turn on players here. People aren’t necessarily saying he’s an awful player, no, but if you haven’t performed well in the current year, people generally want you shipped off. Every player has their slumps. I think it’s reasonable to think that a guy who’s best asset is his shot is going to suffer a dip in stats when he breaks his finger. I think it would be crazy to trade Eberle this early, unless it’s for a really special player in return that addresses our needs Ex. a super-package for a big skilled 2-way, young centerman.. or we swap him for a Max Pacioretty. I’m not saying that these trades are at all feasible, just saying that if Eberle is moved, it needs to be for an obvious improvement – a slam dunk for the organization.

    He’s part of a culture that the Oilers management are really trying to flourish here, and he brings some great talent to the table. $6M may end up being too much, but it’s too early to know.

  63. Beaker says:

    Does 7th + 37th (or even the ducks second) get us to 4th? too much? not enough?

  64. denny33 says:

    Beaker,

    This is exactly what I was thinking…but not sure that will get us there….would be willing to give both 2nd rounders..

  65. godot10 says:

    Beaker:
    Does 7th + 37th (or even the ducks second) get us to 4th? too much? not enough?

    Forget about trading into the top 4. It ain’t going to happen. Team don’t trade out of an elite prospect. The price is far to high. The cost of moving into the top 4 is basically Yakupov (or Eberle or Nugent Hopkins or Hall).

    The Oilers are probably picking 7th. One of the centres is highly likely to be there, and since Carolina is probably picking a D, one can probably deal one of the 2nd’s or one of the D prospects to swap picks with Carolina to guarentee a centre.

    Monahan and Lindholm are really good prospect centres.

  66. prairieschooner says:

    Based upon MacTs comments Gagner looks to be safe with the Oilers, Hemsky not so much.
    He also talked about size and grit
    So if not Gagner my guess is MPS could be in trouble

  67. Marc says:

    Maybe this makes me a bad Oilers fan, but I’d love to see the hockey gods reward Columbus with 1st overall.

  68. Beaker says:

    godot10,

    Im not sure its quite that drastic. Whats the difference between Monahan and Barkov? a 37th overall? (or is it 36th overall because NJ is supposed to forfeit its pick this year?) Is it 7th plus a prospect?

    If Barkov is there at 5 does Carolina who is deep at center trade down? I dont have any answers im just spit balling but I dont think its THAT drastic. It’s really too bad we wasted those third and fourth rounders this year, youd think 7+ 37 +67+97 for the 4th or 5th might at least get some interest.

  69. Jon K says:

    Sorry to miss the inaugural show today, LT. The courthouse was a madhouse, as I’m sure SS can attest to as well. I look forward to hearing the show many times on the days where I’m on the road in the morning.

  70. Marc says:

    Of course I’d also love to see Jay Feaster (AKA the smartest man in the room) go off the boards and take some American high school kid with the 6th pick, so that probably counts towards Oiler fandom

  71. LoDog says:

    godot10: Forget about trading into the top 4. It ain’t going to happen. Team don’t trade out of an elite prospect. The price is far to high. The cost of moving into the top 4 is basically Yakupov (or Eberle or Nugent Hopkins or Hall). The Oilers are probably picking 7th. One of the centres is highly likely to be there, and since Carolina is probably picking a D, one can probably deal one of the 2nd’s or one of the D prospects to swap picks with Carolina to guarentee a centre. Monahan and Lindholm are really good prospect centres.

    Pffft, the Oilers will win the lottery and pick first, so no worries about trading up. :)

  72. Gerta Rauss says:

    http://www.nhl.com/ice/blogpost.htm?id=16934&navid=nhl:topheads

    NJ keeping their 1st rd pick this year, so it’ll be next years this they forfeit. Why they kept the 29th pick last year is a head scratcher.

  73. Gerta Rauss says:

    I’d be listening to offers for the 7th OV pick, but it would have to fill a specific need. If they can get a 2C that can play next year it’s something I would consider, otherwise, yeah, there will be a nice player at 7 and I keep the pick.

    My bigger fear is that Calgary is also looking for a C, and if Barkov goes in the top 4(which is likely) and Carolina takes a D, Calgary probably takes Monahan.

  74. fifthcartel says:

    MacT gives me hope that he is going to turn around a significant portion of the roster, I was a little worried when he said they were very receptive to trading down though.

  75. striatic says:

    i think the best case for moving the 7OV might be to another team picking in the first 10.

    not for the Oilers to move up, but for the other team to have 2 top 10 picks.

    Edmonton would get a current NHL player in return.

  76. Beaker says:

    striatic,

    yeah… it better be a really good young 2c or a top pairing def coming back (dont care if other things needs to be worked in) otherwise its not worth it. Trading the pick is a good option but im not sure youre going to get the return you want.

  77. sliderule says:

    Congratulations on your first show LT .

    I used to hate when I would leave the dial on 1260 and hear Jim Rome..

    I know you will talk more than hockey but I will keep my dial on 1260 just to pick up your intelligent commentary on oilers.

  78. Marc says:

    striatic:
    i think the best case for moving the 7OV might be to another team picking in the bottom 5.

    not for the Oilers to move up, but for the other team to have 2 top 10 picks.

    Edmonton would get a current NHL player in return.

    I could also see a playoff team that’s against the cap consider trading a good vet for the pick as a way of both cutting salary and refreshing their talent base.

    Would NYR trade Del Zotto or Girardi for it? Would Boston Trade Lucic?

  79. striatic says:

    Buffalo seems to be an ideal trading partner in this regard.

    an older team looking to accelerate a painful rebuild that is not the calgary flames.

    picking 7OV and 8OV would advance the timetable on their rebuild by a year.

    in return, Edmonton would be looking at Buffalo’s “overpays” like Leino, Myers, Erhoff, Miller or possibly Vanek.

  80. FastOil says:

    LoDog: How is Eberle’s contract the poster child for bad deals? Guy played with a bum hand for half the season and was on pace for 27 goals and 63 points. Sure Hall looks like he will out perform 6 million by a mile but Eberle looks to at least cover it and I’d venture has a very good chance to be value as well.

    To keep the players heads straight, the best player gets the most, second best second most, etc. Eberle’s good, but on the roster as it stands he’s probably the fifth best player. What if they score in this draft or sign someone and Gernat becomes Chara 2.0?

    So now Hall who is the best player and heart and soul of the team has multiple players making his money? This could lead to morale problems and any smart GM and team (because those deals aren’t up to the GM exclusively) would avoid it like the plague.

    Hall was head and shoulders above everyone when those deals were signed so anyone coming close to his salary should be doing something equally or nearly as amazing.

  81. Jordan says:

    LoDog: Pffft, the Oilers will win the lottery and pick first, so no worries about trading up.

    God, I hope not. The LAST thing this team needs is ANOTHER rookie 18 year old, ESPECIALLY on Defense.

    Hell, if the Oilers won the lottery, I’d be all over trading down. But I wouldn’t do it for 2013 draft picks. Already got enough. Id target 2014 or 2015 draft picks for 2 reasons:
    1 – 2013 is already seen as a deep draft, so teams a loathe to give up something that is of value now, so the picks you get would likely be lower than what you might get in 2014 or 2015
    2 – The Oilers prospect pools are getting really full – they don’t need a lot of additional players immediately – better to push the return back some so that as the team improves, they can maximize the use of the entry-level contracts.

    I’d be pretty happy with any of Barkov, Monahan, Mantha or Nikushkin – I’d prefer a C, but giant wingers are good too. I know there’s supposed to be some real high-end d here, but… I’d rather go forwards in the 1st.

  82. Captain Happy says:

    godot10:
    Eberle had a “horrible” year.He has one point less than Zach Parise, who got to play witih Miku Koivu, and not an injured Nugent-Hopkins.He had 3 points less than Daniel Sedin, and Sedin will be up for a new contract relatively soon that will cost the Canucks more than $6 million.

    Eberle was 41th in league scoring.

    Hall’s contract is a super bargain.Eberle’s will be very good value for money.

    The Sedins won’t be commanding $6 million in their next contracts.

    If they don’t retire, Gillis will sign them to cap friendly deals to play second line minutes while adding a couple of high scoring wingers to play with Kesler.

    The Sedins took a huge discount in their last contracts and Gillis is likely the best in the biz at getting players to take less for the good of the team.

    Hell, even Burrows is making only $4.5M on his new deal and he has a much better overall track record than Eberle.

  83. Chunklets says:

    Rumour is running about today that Fistric may be a target for Medveščak Zagreb, the KHL’s incoming team in Croatia. I don’t know how much weight to put on this; as far as I can tell, Medveščak are currently linked with every single NHLer with any Croatian family connection. However, it is out there!

  84. FPB94 says:

    Jason Collins NBA Center first openly gay athlete in the 4 major pro sports.

    Congratulations to him. Takes an enormous amount of courage.

  85. striatic says:

    FastOil: So now Hall who is the best player and heart and soul of the team has multiple players making his money? This could lead to morale problems and any smart GM and team (because those deals aren’t up to the GM exclusively) would avoid it like the plague.

    so long as no one is making more than Hall, i’m sure there won’t be morale problems with Hall or anyone else.

    Eberle is Hall’s buddy, so no problem there.

    plus, bonus structure changes everything.

  86. Jordan says:

    FPB94,

    Wow.

    That takes some giant balls.

    Lewd jokes to follow.

    Seriously though. Gotta agree with you FPB – very brave man. Hope it goes well for him, and for those that follow in his footsteps.

    Seriously thought it would be baseball first.

  87. ASkoreyko says:

    TheOtherJohn,

    Are you actually comparing Josh Bailey to Eberle?

    You bring up Eberle and Bailey’s point totals saying how they are similar and yet completley ignore the fact that Bailey has played 134 additional games!

    Also Eberle was 39th in league scoring (for forwards) and his cap hit for next season would put him as the 35th highest paid forward in the NHL. That is quite close and Eberle should still improve with each year.

    The contract is not terrible, it just isn’t a steal like Hall’s.

  88. stevezie says:

    Marc:
    Maybe this makes me a bad Oilers fan, but I’d love to see the hockey gods reward Columbus with 1st overall.

    Maybe this makes us both Oilers fans. I would love to see CBS rewarded- they deserve it.

  89. ASkoreyko says:

    Captain Happy:

    Hell, even Burrows is making only $4.5M on his new deal and he has a much better overall track record than Eberle.

    Do you mean the 32-year old who just finished 141st in league scoring?

    The same 32-year old who has had his PPG drop each year since 09-10?

    To bad for Vancouver you cant bury contracts in the minors any more, that contract might start to look Horcofian in nature pretty soon.

    Anyway I appreciate the attempt DSF.

  90. Нинтендо⁶⁴ says:

    bookje,

    Wanted to do it, but I was overdue elsewhere and figured someone would rescue LT from Danica within the hour. Nice.

    Someone even did this for Bill Gates once:

    http://news.cnet.com/Good-Samaritan-squashes-Hotmail-lapse/2100-1023_3-234907.html

  91. dangilitis says:

    A 3 for 1 would have been great this year with so much deadweight, but at least 1 piece usually has to have some value. The 2 for 1 has worked, too. Don’t bite my head off here, but Stoll and Greene for Visnovsky was a good trade, if they had better center depth to replace Stoll. I think Streit is still a long shot and even so I would hope for something more long term. Would Nick Schultz and an AHL D prospect (Marincin) get you Yandle from the cash strapped Yotes, who have already committed big dollars to OEL?

    Yandle-Petry
    Smid-JSchultz
    Hjalmarsson-Potter
    Klefbom

    Can I dare to dream?

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