WE’LL BE SINGING, WHEN WE’RE WINNING

During last night’s broadcast on tsn, Darren Dreger discussed Edmonton’s offseason as seen through the lens of new GM Craig MacTavish. The scene set (above) isn’t quite what we discussed today–but it isn’t far away either.

My suggestions yesterday morning:

  1. A quality, veteran NHL defenseman to play with Schultz the younger
  2. A legit C to play behind Nuge, Gagner and Horc. This player should be able to slide up the depth chart, because we know injuries will impact the position.
  3. A veteran winger (probably portside) to go with Hall-Eberle, Paajarvi-Yakupov, ????-Hemsky. I think the Oilers could get by with Smyth-Hartikaien as the 4line options next year.
  4. A solid backup goalie.

Now the Dreger line:

  1. Shattenkirk, Ference, Streit (all reasonable options)
  2. Matt Hendricks is an interesting name
  3. Iginla, Clarkson, Morrow. Perhaps a little higher up the latter than I was thinking, but hey that’s fine reach for the stars.
  4. They are not as convinced of Dubnyk as the numbers suggest they should be.

Overall I think it’s all good, but they’re not going to get Shattenkirk and Iginla/Clarkson/Morrow aren’t coming here unless there’s an insane contract being offered by the Oilers, or unless all the other teams who are contenders believe Morrow is on his last legs. I do think the names Ference, Streit, Hendricks are probably fair game. And the Dubnyk stuff is crazy, maybe that’s going to be MacT’s Moby Dick.

Bob McKenzie mentioned trading the first round pick too. Edmonton is slotted 5th in the draft today, and this might be their list:

  1. Seth Jones
  2. Nathan MacKinnon
  3. Jonathan Drouin
  4. Sasha Barkov
  5. Sean Monahan

One good thing: they can send the young man back for another year in his league without any  thought to keeping him. Here are the Oilers current draft picks by number:

  • #5
  • #35
  • #58
  • (3rd rd pick traded to Dallas for Fistric)
  • (4th rd pick traded to Florida for Smithson)
  • #125
  • #155
  • #185

Those first three picks have to count, that’s basically the draft. I’ll guess Monahan, Tristan Jarry and Myles Bell.

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150 Responses to "WE’LL BE SINGING, WHEN WE’RE WINNING"

  1. WeridAl says:

    I understand Streit is looking for a contract in the 5M range and for over 3yrs. Cannot believe someone would think he would sign here, let alone he would be a option, especially after his performance the last 2yrs and his age.

  2. Lowetide says:

    Connection to Krueger is probably the reason, plus he’s a legit NHL defenseman who can move the puck and help on the PP. Streit’s contract length is certainly a concern, but I’d prefer they solve this problem without trading Yakupov or Gagner or the 1st rd pick.

  3. russ99 says:

    Interesting… Hope some of this is true, Not sure about the goalie issue,though I’d love to see the Oilers get a good “1A” goalie to push Dubnyk to improve.

    it would be beyond dumb to trade this 3rd-7th pick (depending on the last 2 games) for anyone other than a top pairing defenseman, and not many GMs would be up for that.

    Also, I’m not convinced with Monahan, considering his offensive drop off in his 2nd full OHL year. Seems too high a pick for a player who’s biggest plusses are 2-way play and leadership and could end up either a first liner or a third liner.

    Better than Lazar, I guess… In Stu we trust.

  4. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    At MacT’s press conference he said something like: “I don’t think any reasonable person can look at this team and determine coaching is the problem”

    I think that is essentially right. Coaching may be “A” problem, but it is not “THE” problem. Player acquisition is/was.

    I wish he’d said something along these lines as well: “I don’t think any reasonable person can look at this team and determine goaltending is the problem”

    Dubnyk is decidedly not the problem here. And I hope MacT is as strident in his defense of Dubnyk as he was of RK.

    It is clear we need a solid backup. But we don’t need to chase a big $$ NHL vet with a giant contract. That would be a mistake for all the reasons JW outlines here:

    http://oilersnation.com/2011/11/3/why-giving-pekka-rinne-a-huge-contract-was-a-bad-idea

    not to mention we’d be stuck with a lot of our cap space going to two Gs.

    On those UFAs… I worry a lot that one of these guys is going to snag huge cap space from us only to forget how to play…

    I think (especially without a 3rd rounder) trading our 1st makes no sense. you have to keep stocking the cupboard and those top 7 could all be stellar talents for years to come.

    Not to mention… we have a very real shot to get to top 3:

    If tampa and nashville simply win or tie one more game and we lose the last two (both very possible) we are 3rd.

  5. stevezie says:

    I understand the desire to get a known name, but I really think that when it comes to the “power foward” or whatever you want to call what everyone says we need, we really need to find the guy before he is established.

    There was a lot of talk last night about cap space, and while I don’t think the situation is as dire as Traktor does, I still don’t think we can afford to be aggressive on Clarkson or Clowe and land an established D.

    For me the priority is clear- get me the D. After that any acquisition is probably going to involve some hope.

  6. sliderule says:

    The oilers if they lose out will most likely pick fourth as Tampa should win their last game against Florida.

    I know we have been saying this for years but every one of the top four will be a franchise player and with the spacing of our last three first picks would look after this franchise for ten years or more.
    Therefore for gods sake don’t trade the first pick for some other teams flawed discard.
    Every team knows their own player best and while the offers might look like they fill a need(bigger /stronger) they will have flaws a la Whitney.

    The affordable free agents that TSN proposed would look after a lot of our needs in goal defence and forward.I trust that MacT will look mostly there and make one trade probably involving a couple of forwards.

  7. Chris Hext---formerly EasyOil--- says:

    Myles Bell? Well that’s an interesting name. Wasn’t he fairly highly rated a couple of years back as a defenceman? Seems to have re-invented himself as a high scoring forward since the awful crash, but I haven’t seen him mentioned by any of the scouts. Any idea how Pronman sees him LT?

  8. sliderule says:

    Last nights game showed the RK systemic all it’s infamy.

    Bad pinches by the D seem to be part and parcel of system.

    MacT while he is not commenting must see the chaos

  9. cc says:

    One guy I wonder if he’s on the radar is Sergei Gonchar. I’m guessing he gets a one year deal, south of 5 million, could QB the 2nd PP and it would be good to have a older countryman for Yakupov. Personally, I think he’s a better fit than Streit, who would take a higher cap hit and more term.

  10. WeridAl says:

    russ99,

    Monahan played on a bad team and he was also suspended for 10 games for a high elbow, don’t take anything about his drop in point production. He also had a bad back towards the end of the season and he still played, his team was out of the playoffs and could of taken the rest of the season off, but he continued to play. He is also considered to be in the top 3 in the FO department in the OHL. Sounds like he’s perfect for the Oilers.

  11. HeavySig says:

    Regarding Krueger as coach; I think we have all seen some things we like and some things we question. The things that come up the most as a criticism seems to be his line match-ups and his stretch break-out system.

    This may be where he may be able to improve based on what information we have on him. When the Oilers made their run in ’06 with MacT, he adapted the systems and player roles based on input from vets like Pronger, Peca and Roloson. MacT took a lot of heat over his coaching, but one thing he did to was match lines well. He listened to Pronger and gave the vets more recovery time, he hashed out Peca’s role with him and Peca was a beast in the playoffs and Roloson helped sell him on the “T” word system that helped the Oilers grind it out.

    If Krueger is the student of the game as advertised, what he can pick up under MacT’s tutelage might just make him into a good enough coach to keep around for a bit. That is, unless there is another secret replacement plan in the works down at Oil HQ.

  12. Hammers says:

    Whats wrong with trading the 1st & N.Schultz for Tyutin or Johnson + a pick or player . There are other options but i agree we need a player “D” that’s signed and in his late 20′s not Streit or any other on there last legs unless its a 2 year type contract or front loaded for 3 . Say 5 , 5 & 2 so you can trade him after 2 years . Right know its in McT we trust.

  13. Mr DeBakey says:

    Improve compete level?

    All this time I thought the emphasis was on Culture.

    Welcome to another addition of Word Salad.

  14. Mr DeBakey says:

    And

    Those idiots have goaltending at the top of the list?

  15. hockeyguy10 says:

    Mr. D

    “Welcome to another addition of Word Salad.”

    Was this on purpose?? I was on the verge of spitting my coffee out….

  16. WeridAl says:

    Hammers,

    Are the Oilers looking for a long term fix or a short term fix, because with Klefbom coming up and Marincin’s solid play with the OKC, I can see the Oiler management waiting to see how these 2 turn out.

  17. Clay says:

    Mr DeBakey:
    Improve compete level?

    All this time I thought the emphasis was on Culture.

    Welcome to another addition of Word Salad.

    Culture and compete level are great, but they’re meaningless without poise.

  18. speeds says:

    Hammers,

    IMO, that’s likely not the optimal play. I agree that EDM could use improvement to their D, but I don’t think that sort of trade is better than just drafting the BPA (very likely a F given the projected range of EDM’s pick) and then addressing the D some other way (be it trade, UFA, offer sheet).

  19. Bar_Qu says:

    Hammers:
    Whats wrong with trading the 1st & N.Schultz for Tyutin or Johnson + a pick or player . There are other options but i agree we need a player “D” that’s signed and in his late 20′s not Streit or any other on there last legs unless its a 2 year type contract or front loaded for 3 . Say 5 , 5 & 2 so you can trade him after 2 years .Right know its in McT we trust.

    There is plenty wrong in trading this year’s first. Especially since it is going to be top 5. Next year or the year after, trade that first, but not this year’s. And I agree with you on getting a vet D on a 2 yr (max) overpay. There is cap room next season and the cap will rise suddenly the following season, so the Oilers could do it. And it is the bridge to get Klefbom, Marincin and Simpson/Gernat/Musil up and playing in a useful role (those last three as depth defenders for intermittent call-ups).

    The forward acquisitions all need to be younger, so I would nix Iginla. Compete level or intensity or whatever hackneyed phrase you choose to use should be a big part of the players skill set (not the main one by any means, but certainly a complementary one).

  20. Bank Shot says:

    sliderule:
    Last nights game showed the RK systemic all it’s infamy.

    Bad pinches by the D seem to be part and parcel of system.

    MacT while he is not commenting must see the chaos

    Every time I watch Justin Schultz play live, the guy is consistently caught up ice by opposing forwards. I would have to conclude the guy is just not interested in the defensive part of the game in the slightest.

    Too many forwards trying to make TSN highlight reel every time they come across the blueline. Hey Gagner! You don’t have to try a spinarama every time you come up the ice!

    I don’t think the Oilers can win holding onto all of Gagner, RNH, Hemsky, Eberle., Paajaarvi. Eventually you need to win a puck battle or two.

  21. G Money says:

    HeavySig:
    Regarding Krueger as coach; I think we have all seen some things we like and some things we question.Thethings that come up the most as a criticism seems to be his line match-ups and his stretch break-out system.

    This may be where he may be able to improve based on what information we have on him.When the Oilers made their run in ’06 with MacT, he adapted the systems and player roles based on input from vets like Pronger, Peca and Roloson.MacT took a lot of heat over his coaching, but one thing he did to was match lines well.He listened to Pronger and gave the vets more recovery time, he hashed out Peca’s role with him and Peca was a beast in the playoffs and Roloson helped sell him on the “T” wordsystem that helped the Oilers grind it out.

    If Krueger is the student of the game as advertised, what he can pick up under MacT’s tutelage might just make him into a good enough coach to keep around for a bit.That is, unless there is another secret replacement plan in the works down at Oil HQ.

    I hope that’s the case.

    I like a lot of things about Krueger – his intelligence, his (seeming) ability to communicate. Excessive turnover in coaches causes its own dysfunction.

    So I would rather we chuck the system than the coach.

    That said – the widespread decline in the defensive results of THE ENTIRE TEAM from last year (with the exception of the preternaturally gifted first line) to my mind clearly indicate there is a systemic problem, it is not just the players.

  22. justDOit says:

    G Money,

    Along with the system, I would like to see RK select his own assistants.

  23. misfit says:

    I know Dreger has sources, but when what he says stops being reported facts and turn into his own personal thoughts on what it means, his lips may be moving, but he’s talking out of a different part of his body altogether.

  24. denny33 says:

    Mr DeBakey,

    No kidding.

    Does anyone really think we are buried at the bottom of the league – again – because of our
    *Backup* goaltending?

    Out of all this teams failings – can’t imagine spending more than 2 seconds on searching for a backup goalie.

    Once we address our D and our perimeter playing forwards – then we can discuss backups.

    ************************************************************************

    Sam Gagner – I could do this on a game by game basis – fumbles the puck in his own slot – loses it to the opposition and could care less about it.

    Not a care or concern in the world about what happens….

  25. Ducey says:

    Man the Oiler’s behaviour at the deadline sure looks bad.

    We got Smithson – that turned out great. Whitney likely would have brought back something, yet is injured/ can’t get the lineup. Bulin is just wandering off into the sunset.

    I see Tampa Bay plays Florida on the weekend. You have to think Tampa should win, moving the Oilers down another notch.

    The Oilers could wind up in 28th. Wow.

  26. Roughneck says:

    ~I wonder if Dr. Amirault lists her work with the Oilers as part of her resume’?~

  27. Bag of Pucks says:

    Reading the comments, I’m really glad I’ve made a concerted effort not to watch this team through the final death march phase of the season.

    One phrase I’ve really taken to heart of late is “life is too short to drink bad wine.” I guess in this case, that phrase morphs into “life is too short to watch a bad hockey team.” Playoffs can’t start soon enough.

    Curious, which teams do you root for with the Oil out?

    For me, it’s the Canadian sides that haven’t won it in the longest time, so it looks like the Sens in the east and the Nucks in the west.

  28. LMHF#1 says:

    I’m still on board for a deal of the first, Gagner and maybe a minor piece for a superstar. Just like the Mogilny to Vancouver trade as I noted earlier. Is that out there? No idea. Worth investigating though.

  29. commonfan14 says:

    You can’t lose 11 of your final 12 games and bring back the same coach next season.

    I think it’s a rule.

  30. Beaker says:

    Bag of Pucks:
    Reading the comments, I’m really glad I’ve made a concerted effort not to watch this team through the final death march phase of the season.

    One phrase I’ve really taken to heart of late is “life is too short to drink bad wine.” I guess in this case, that phrase morphs into “life is too short to watch a bad hockey team.” Playoffs can’t start soon enough.

    Curious, which teams do you root for with the Oil out?

    For me, it’s the Canadian sides that haven’t won it in the longest time, so it looks like the Sens in the east and the Nucks in the west.

    Screw the nucks. I’m not sure why people say “cheer for the Canadian teams” unless you feel some connection to that particular fan base it holds no real meaning about hockey in Canada. Why not pick the team with the most Canadians on it? I cheer for the team playing vancouver and the team that knocks them out is the team I root for the rest of the year. I’ve always liked Buffalo and Chicago since I was a kid. I remember loving Roenick for some reason, no idea where my affinity for Buffalo came from but they are as painful to watch as the Oil anyways.

    LA and Boston will always have a tiny bit of my heart after the last couple of seasons.

  31. asiaoil says:

    Sean Coutoutier addresses a lot of what ails the Oilers – and I give up the this year’s pick to get him as long as Barkov or Jones are not available. We need a big 2 way center now – not in 3 years – and Philly has eaten the apprenticeship cost and risk. Then deal Gagner for a top 4 dman and Hemsky for big 3rd line winger.

    Backup goalie and the other bottom 6 wingers are UFA and minor trade material using some of extra dman prospects (Teuburt, Simpson, Musil).

    Hall Coutourier Yak
    MSP RNH Eberle
    Hemsky trade Horcoff UFA
    Smyth UFA Harti

    Smid Petry
    gagner trade schulz
    schulz kbom potter

    dd / ufa

  32. G Money says:

    justDOit:
    G Money,

    Along with the system, I would like to see RK select his own assistants.

    Yes please! Although I have a suspicion that RK may have had that option, but as a recently promoted assistant coach, didn’t want to throw his colleagues under the bus.

    But for Smith and Bucky, though I was a huge fan of both as players, I just don’t get the warm fuzzies for them as coaches.

  33. Truth Movement says:

    Edmonton Oilers‏@EdmontonOilers49s
    #Oilers have signed goaltender and 2011 #NHLDraft selection Frans Tuohimaa to a two-year entry-level contract

  34. Hammers says:

    WeridAl,

    The trouble with the long term fix is it’s like a never ending story . At some point this team needs to become a TEAM not 6-8 kids ( and mistakes ) continually loosing . My guess is most fans hoped we would be between 7-9th this year and would have accepted a 12th -15th round pick . That’s why I won’t be surprised at a trade of our 1st . It maybe a player and somebody’s 12th -15th . That’s why this year we need to trust McT Not McGregor

  35. LoDog says:

    G Money: Yes please! Although I have a suspicion that RK may have had that option, but as a recently promoted assistant coach, didn’t want to throw his colleagues under the bus.But for Smith and Bucky, though I was a huge fan of both as players, I just don’t get the warm fuzzies for them as coaches.

    I don’t know what the hell bucky does but apparently Smith is in charge of the PK which has improved greatly.

  36. Hockeyman 99 says:

    What about Luongo in the summer? lets us move dubnyk to Toronto for Franson+ with Lou to replace him can’t cost much. I don’t think his contract is bad at all in fact the opposite. $5.3 is a steal and Dubie will probably get more if he keeps playing as well as lou has over his career. his contract is worth gold even at the end as it can be Tim Thomas’d to a team that doesn’t want to go to the Cap. I will bet the team that offloads him in 5yrs gets as much as they gave to get him. his last 3yrs could be worth $15M to an owner that doesn’t want to spend the money or is in a rebuild and really wants to make sure they tank by having a team salary structure $5M below the cap

  37. LMHF#1 says:

    Truth Movement:
    Edmonton Oilers‏@EdmontonOilers49s
    #Oilers have signed goaltender and 2011 #NHLDraft selection Frans Tuohimaa to a two-year entry-level contract

    I’m struggling to understand why you use up a contract spot on this guy, We already have a ton of goalies who aren’t going to make it.

  38. LMHF#1 says:

    Hockeyman 99:
    What about Luongo in the summer?

    Are you kidding me? No. A million times no.

  39. Hockeyman 99 says:

    LMHF#1,

    Did you even analyze the Idea? What is the problem?

  40. Beaker says:

    We’re a lock to lose the next two right? If that happens and Tampa beats florida (totally possible) and Nashville gets one point out of Detroit or CBJ Then we’re guaranteed top 4 in the draft. As long as Calgary doesn’t win the lottery then life is good.

    *And by life is good i mean shit but thats the best that can be hoped for given the situation

  41. Hockeyman 99 says:

    Lou is every bit as good or better than DD right now. In one year will probably have a equal or smaller CAP hit and has stud goalie written all over him in the players eyes which will give them confidence.
    his contract will have value in the last 3 years.

  42. Beaker says:

    Hockeyman 99,

    Mainly I think its putting a lot of effort into an area that isnt a priority. Dubnyk is NOT the problem. Its even questionable whether or not Dubnyk is part of the problem at all (even in a small way)

  43. Hockeyman 99 says:

    Plus DD will bring a good return.

  44. Hockeyman 99 says:

    He makes huge saves and then lets in sh!tty goals. That is a problem.

  45. justDOit says:

    G Money,

    Agreed. It seems that we got better mileage out of similar talent when Huddy was D coach, but who knows? I mean, determining what’s wrong with this team is like diagnosing a very sick man who was just in a car accident…

  46. gcw_rocks says:

    Truth Movement,

    Why? Not a good sign imo

  47. LMHF#1 says:

    Hockeyman 99:
    LMHF#1,

    Did you even analyze the Idea? What is the problem?

    This has already been discussed plenty of times. No interest in a headcase goalie who makes more than 5 mil until the end of time. Nowhere near worth the trouble. Toronto’s not going to randomly acquire Dubnyk either, with Scrivens and Reimer there.

    We haven’t even gotten into why giving Vancouver assets to solve their problem is a bad idea.

  48. spoiler says:

    Darnell Nurse’s name keeps coming in the media. I don’t know how much of that is media echo (and it might all be), but I find it a bit strange that Bobby Mac specifically mentions him (and big prospect defensemen) in the analysis last night, but it doesn’t even get a reference above.

    And we’ve had independent reports of Nurse being watched by Oiler scouts.

    I’m a bit surprised as he doesn’t have the stats that say Hamilton had, or any of the WHL Wonder-D of last year but there’s been a lot of smoke surrounding his name and the Oil.

    Has to be considered to be “in the picture”, rightly or wrongly.

    I like the title of the article, it takes me back… I have never heard the corollary before, but I’ve been in the stands a few times singing “You only sing when yer winning!” I think the last time was Anfield, where the fans were notoriously neurotic about their schizophrenic Liverpool side. Lol. We still lost, but dammit we led most of the match!

  49. WeridAl says:

    Hockeyman 99:
    What about Luongo in the summer? lets us move dubnyk to Toronto for Franson+ with Lou to replace him can’t cost much. I don’t think his contract is bad at all in fact the opposite. $5.3 is a steal and Dubie will probably get more if he keeps playing as well as lou has over his career. his contract is worth gold even at the end as it can be Tim Thomas’d to a team that doesn’t want to go to the Cap. I will bet the team that offloads him in 5yrs gets as much as they gave to get him. his last 3yrs could be worth $15M to an owner that doesn’t want to spend the money or is in a rebuild and really wants to make sure they tank by having a team salary structure $5M below the cap

    Franson is having a good year, but he’s playing very protected minutes, he’s too much of a pylon for my liking.

  50. Hockeyman 99 says:

    gcw_rocks,

    Kind of agree but he was playing better than Perhonnen. So if they wanted one Goaler from that draft he was the one to sign.

  51. Beaker says:

    Hockeyman 99,

    Ok so if he saved all the shitty ones but then let in an equal amount of the huge saves it would be better? He has a shitty defense in front of him, perhaps the worst in the league, he has 0 support from the offense. Dubnyk is NOT the problem, not even close.

    Jesus you think Roberto wouldnt let in weak ones occasionally? See: Most of his playoffs.

  52. Hockeyman 99 says:

    WeridAl,

    Insert different name. The idea is Lou is almost like a ufa and it allows us to add to our needs and in my opinion stay at least where we are at quality wise in net at a good Cap hit.

  53. speeds says:

    Hammers:
    WeridAl,

    At some point this team needs to become a TEAM not 6-8 kids ( and mistakes ) continually loosing.

    That point isn’t necessarily prior to this draft. What’s wrong with drafting with the 2013 pick and then getting aggressive filling other holes via UFA, offer sheets, trades involving 2014 picks, prospects, other players?

  54. WeridAl says:

    Beaker,

    It’s a team game and if some of the forwards were big enough to help and keep the pressure in the opposing side there would be a big difference.

  55. Hockeyman 99 says:

    Do you remember back about 10 games ago before the nose dive the game We lost 2-1 and both goals where Terrible. One was a shot from behind the net and one he misplayed from behind the net. Bad goals hurt a teams confidence worse than a big save helps when you are already losing.

    He seems to let in more softies than Lou. Also Lou has a reputation as a Star you can’t discount the effect that has on the teams confidence.

  56. WeridAl says:

    speeds,

    Do you actually believe any decent UFA would want to sign with a team that would be questionable to make the playoffs next season.

  57. Beaker says:

    Hockeyman 99,

    I do remember that game, do you remember the fact that we only scored one fucking goal? That is relevant.

  58. Hockeyman 99 says:

    WeridAl,

    Players aren’t dumb if you start to fill some holes and they see themselves as part of the solution they will sign.

  59. Hockeyman 99 says:

    Horrible goal goes in on Dubie, Edm Ties the game and he lets in an even worse goal, game over.

  60. justDOit says:

    Hockeyman 99:
    Do you remember back about 10 games ago before the nose dive the game We lost 2-1 and both goals where Terrible. One was a shot from behind the net and one he misplayed from behind the net. Bad goals hurt a teams confidence worse than a big save helps when you are already losing.

    He seems to let in more softies than Lou. Also Lou has a reputation as a Star you can’t discount the effect that has on the teams confidence.

    So you’re saying that the goals DD let in, in that game, prevented his team from scoring more than 1 goal to support him? Were there not any good saves from that game, or are you only focusing on his bad aspects to support your assertion?

    I still don’t know how you can nail this on DD. Did Bryzgalov go from being a superstar goaling behind good defenses like in PHX and ANA, to a poor goalie in PHI?

    And how exactly is Lou like a UFA? Last time I checked, the price being demanded for him in a trade is quite high – which is exactly the reason he’s still a Nuck.

  61. nelson88 says:

    Unless they get one hell of a return they would be foolish to trade the1st rounder. Pick Barkov or Monahan and given them a year or two to develop. You have your #1, #1A tandem with RNH. Problem solved.

    DD is fine. Get him a good back and someone who can push him.

    They have a good quality vet to play with Justin Schultz. His name is Nick Schultz but even he can not make up for Jr’s sorties this year. I understand the need to love the guy because he “chose” the Oilers and he has some very good offensive skill that will hopefully translate into a Duncan Keith type player. However; as it stands today he is absolutely a liability on the ice and anyone who is missing that has to take off the rose coloured glasses.

  62. mps91 says:

    Re Nurse:

    I really like him and another other year i’d be over the moon if the Oil drafted him. But from previous years, we know D take longer to develop. We honestly can’t afford to wait 2 years for him to crack the roster, then another 2 for him to contribute.

    At the draft, we need Monahan or Barkov. If we can’t land the much lauded 2-way centre with size, it’s time to look at dealing the pick.

    As a side note: I’d almost guarantee the Flyers would deal Couturier for Nurse, but i’d rather have Monahan/Barkov over SC.

  63. justDOit says:

    Hockeyman 99:
    Horrible goal goes in on Dubie, Edm Ties the game and he lets in an even worse goal,game over.

    “Hey Ebs – let’s not even bother trying to score another goal. I’m tired of keeping ahead of all the bad goals Doobie is letting in”

    “Okay Hallsie. You’re right. It’s easier to just sit here and lose.”

  64. Hockeyman 99 says:

    Lou is like a UFA because I think at this point they will have to give him away to save the Cap space.

    Dubie is a good goalie that right now lets in too many softies. If he stops this he will most likely end up with a larger Cap hit than Lou 2 years from now.

    If you can get Lou for nothing and his contract is actually a positive and then get a D-man and a pick for DD it makes your team better. It isn’t about DD being bad so much as their perceived values right now and the fact you can add to the team without making a hole to fill one.

  65. Beaker says:

    Oilers score 2.43 goals a game.
    Only 4 teams have scored less goals than us this year.
    Dubnyk has let in 2.59 goals a game with 0.920 Save percentage. He gets shot at more than almost anyone in the league. Hell, with the same amount of shots hes let in 11 less goals than Rinne.

    Give your head a shake. With one breathe you say hes in for a huge pay day, the next you say hes the problem of the team. These ideas done jive my friend.

  66. Hockeyman 99 says:

    justDOit,

    Players in Slumps don’t quit trying, they just lack confidence and try to hard. Like how Hall, Gagner and Ebs keep trying to do it on there own. Right now they feel they have to make spectacular plays to score when in reality it is simple plays that usually cause goals in a tight game.

  67. Hockeyman 99 says:

    Hockeyman 99,

    Beaker You aren’t even reading what I write. Check the stats 12 games ago.

  68. Bag of Pucks says:

    Beaker: Screw the nucks. I’m not sure why people say “cheer for the Canadian teams” unless you feel some connection to that particular fan base it holds no real meaning about hockey in Canada.Why not pick the team with the most Canadians on it?I cheer for the team playing vancouver and the team that knocks them out is the team I root for the rest of the year.I’ve always liked Buffalo and Chicago since I was a kid. I remember loving Roenick for some reason, no idea where my affinity for Buffalo came from but they are as painful to watch as the Oil anyways.

    LA and Boston will always have a tiny bit of my heart after the last couple of seasons.

    For me, cheering for the Canadian teams left works because you know those cities (not just the diehard fanbases) will go absolutely mental if they win. And yes, in Vancouver or Montreal’s case, that’s possibly not a good thing given the past riots those cities have experienced.

    For instance, I was in Toronto when Canada won the World Cup of Hockey in 2004 and a sizeable contingent of fans took to the streets on Yonge to celebrate. That’s a pretty inconsequential tournament in the whole scheme of things so that says a lot about the affinity for the sport in that city. These are real hockey fans that are desperate to celebrate a winner and I think it’s great when they can do it.

    For the same reason, I do enjoy it when a team like Boston or Chicago wins the Cup. But Carolina, Anaheim, Tampa or LA? Less so, because I know the city overall is fairly apathetic about the sport and the Cup win really only pleases the diehards and the recent bandwagon jumpers.

    As far as cheering for a team because it has the greatest % of canadians on it, that seems like a pretty transitory loyalty at best (if the team loses 2 of its canadian players to injury, do I now have to switch my allegiance to the team who’s passed them with the greatest %? lol), and borderline zenophobic at worst.

    That said, player loyalty does factor in. If no Canadian teams are left, I could certainly see myself cheering for Pittsburgh so Iginla can get a ring. Then there’s the players in my hockey draft. Loyalty does get complicated when the Oil are out of it!

  69. mps91 says:

    LT,

    What do you see as options for the young backup who can push Dubie for starts?

    It sounds like Bernier wants a starter’s job, and now Bishop is off the market.

  70. FastOil says:

    WeridAl:
    Hammers,

    Are the Oilers looking for a long term fix or a short term fix, because with Klefbom coming up and Marincin’s solid play with the OKC, I can see the Oiler management waiting to see how these 2 turn out.

    For defense they should be thinking short term, as in a couple of years unless they move LHD prospects. Klefbom will be pushed to start but Marincin and the rest are a few years away from being a solid NHL options.

    Bank Shot:

    I don’t think the Oilers can win holding onto all of Gagner, RNH, Hemsky, Eberle., Paajaarvi. Eventually you need to win a puck battle or two.

    Perhaps, I think it comes down more to finding the right players to compliment those you want to keep. Gagner without wingers that can forecheck and have some ability is a third line centre on a good team because of his defense and weakness on the puck, like how the Rangers use Brassard who is similar. Brassard is at 3.2M, I don’t know if 4.5-5M works for 3C long term.

  71. Hockeyman 99 says:

    Beaker,

    Hockeyman 99:
    Lou is like a UFA because I think at this point they will have to give him away to save the Cap space.

    Dubie is a good goalie that right now lets in too many softies. If he stops this he will most likely end up with a larger Cap hit than Lou 2 years from now.

    If you can get Lou for nothing and his contract is actually a positive and then get a D-man and a pick for DD it makes your team better. It isn’t about DD being bad so much as their perceived values right now and the fact you can add to the team without making a hole to fill one.

    We need D and Forwards how do you propose we get them without making another hole to fill?

  72. G Money says:

    LoDog: I don’t know what the hell bucky does but apparently Smith is in charge of the PK which has improved greatly.

    True, although a few things to think about on that one:

    - the improvement may be a bit of a mirage. Not only has Dubey’s save % gone up this year, but his save % on the PK is something like .935, putting him third in the league. I think that’s a short sample variation, and will eventually revert back to his nominal save percentage. That alone would explain the improvement in the PK (and the expectation for it to decline going forward).

    - if in fact the PK is genuinely better and in the Top 10 in the league, this is actually a strong positive indicator for the defensive capabilities of both our D and our two-way (mostly third and fourth line) forwards. This makes the fact that the EV has declined so badly from last year all the more baffling, and all the more damning of RK’s system.

    justDOit:

    Agreed. It seems that we got better mileage out of similar talent when Huddy was D coach, but who knows? I mean, determining what’s wrong with this team is like diagnosing a very sick man who was just in a car accident…

    Ha ha, good one! But after seven seasons, the sickness feels more like the Black Plague, and the car accident feels more like a plane flying into a highrise.

  73. Beaker says:

    I know exactly what you’re saying. The trade scenario has some logic behind it but when i said you’re wasting your time and resources reworking an area of the team that doesnt need to be fixed and you went on your bit about soft goals is where you lost me. Stats 12 games ago? How is the relevant. The guy has been an average goalie on a way below average team for years now. He’s young and doesnt have a massively long contract. I doubt he gets that big of a pay raise here and I still think Van isnt going to give up their star goalie (i know they have two but so what) to a division rival for nothing, even with the cap space issue.

    P.S. Your post 11:37 post wasnt up when i started writing my 11:40 post.

  74. Hockeyman 99 says:

    LMHF#1,

    If MacT fixes this Team, Van will routinely be getting their a$$ess kicked by the Oil unless they find 2 star players to replace the Sedins without giving anything up.

  75. Beaker says:

    Hockeyman 99,

    Bag of Pucks,

    Xenophobic? Now you’re just getting too complicated for no reason, we are talking about arbitrarily picking teams to cheer for that we dont normally because our team sucks and isnt in the playoffs. You either pick one team or player and stick with it or go series by series. Personally I’m usually too wrpaped up in cheering for whichever team I bet would win that round so I can win money off my father in law.

  76. Hockeyman 99 says:

    Beaker,

    12 games ago 1/4 of the season they were in the playoffs the stats looked a lot better. When things go south they really go south

    WeridAl:
    speeds,

    Do you actually believe any decent UFA would want to sign with a team that would be questionable to make the playoffs next season.

    Hockeyman 99:
    WeridAl,

    Players aren’t dumb if you start to fill some holes and they see themselves as part of the solution they will sign.

    Dubnyk is not “the” problem (I don’t like the softies, I think they are a issue) but this idea could be part of the solution. Players know Roberto around the league if you got him that would be a very positive thing in the eyes of UFAs. It starts the repair work for the teams reputation and lets you add without making a hole which also can only help getting the UFAs you need if you want to fix the team without impacting the core.

  77. Bag of Pucks says:

    Beaker:
    Hockeyman 99,

    Bag of Pucks,

    Personally I’m usually too wrpaped up in cheering for whichever team I bet would win that round so I can win money off my father in law.

    True dat. One of my standard betting strategies is to bet against my team (i.e. the Oilers). That way if they win, I win from a fan’s perspective, if they lose, I win from a bettor’s perspective.

    Betting against the Oil has worked out pretty well the last 7 years to the point where it’s almost singularly responsible for building my boat fund ; )

  78. Hockeyman 99 says:

    justDOit,

    If it cost a B level Prospect and a mid pick and I can get a Quality Roster player and Prospect for DD I don’t know that it matters what I think of DD. Absolutely loved the poke check last night, it made me smile.

  79. Hammers says:

    McT would probably do the right thing and send this draft pick back to junior or to OKL . That’s why we need 2″D” one in late 20′ and 1 in mid 30′s . Give Klefbom half a season in Okl and in 2014/15 Maracin maybe comes up .That’s why I would trade down or trade away this pick . . A possibility of a Tyutin , Streit , Petry , J.Schultz , Smid , Potter & Fistric with Klefbom up halfway Gives us an NHL “D” . . The forwards can be of the UFA group . to go with what we have . Keep drafting =loosing again & again as we have allready seen . 1st & N.Schultz for Tyutin (type of D needed) and Columbus 15th pick or another player probably a forward . .Forget Goalie . DD may prove his worth on Canadas team .

  80. ashley says:

    Most of the LT crowd is never going to be in favour of trading the first rounder. Not in 2013. Not in 2014. Not ever. Let’s face it. We love the draft, and 90% of the draft is about the first round.

    However, at some point, it becomes more important to add impact to the roster now, not a “maybe” two years from now. I don’t think there is harm in putting the pick in play, and see what is on the offer.

    The draft picks get overvalued during draft week, and the top 10 picks may be grossly overvalued by some GM’s. Hell, around here, we will likely have people offering up all kinds of quality, established NHL’er roster players just to move from 5 to 3 (like Gagner, for example).

    Sure there is some 18yo good talent there, but there is also risk. No one really knows how these players are going to do at the pro level.

    Yet GM’s are often willing to trade established, young roster players for a first round pick at draft time. This pick could be top 5. That might attract a valuable, established NHL asset. Not shiny and new, but not full of question marks either.

    That’s not saying you are going to make a trade. But if the right deal is there for a young player that fits the cluster, then you go for it.

    As far as power forward is concerned, how about a redraft in 2011 for Saad at 31 instead of Musil? That would solve the problem. Tough, plays hard, fits the cluster, ELC.

    Hat tip to many of the posters here who were calling for Saad with the second round pick in 2011. It’s so easy two year later.

  81. MrSmitty says:

    I think you have to wait till the draft and see whos left on the board when we get there. If one of McKinnon or Barkov is on the board you don’t trade that pick unless OEL is coming the other way. Those guys will drive the bus in a couple years like Hall does now. You can’t give up the chance to draft an elite center. You can trade away next years picks but don’t give up the elite center you just can’t.

  82. Hockeyman 99 says:

    ashley,

    WOW Chicago with 2 roster players outside of rnd 1

  83. Cobbler says:

    LMHF#1,

    This totally solves that backup goalie issue, or non-issue.

  84. Cobbler says:

    I assume with the Finn signed that Danis will be gone next season

  85. Barcs says:

    I’m really curious/worried as to what the Oilers do if they pick first and Jones and MacKinnon are off the board. Do they go with need and pick Barkov? Can you pass on a talent like Drouin?

  86. cabbiesmacker says:

    Hockeyman 99:
    ashley,

    WOW Chicago with 2 roster players outside of rnd 1

    ?????????

  87. Hockeyman 99 says:

    cabbiesmacker,

    Chicago got Andrew Shaw and Brandon Saad in 2011 draft rounds 2 and 5

  88. cabbiesmacker says:

    Hockeyman 99:
    cabbiesmacker,

    Chicago got Andrew Shaw and Brandon Saad in 2011 draft rounds 2 and 5

    I get that but I didn’t understand the “2 roster players outside of round one” comment. do I need to read up?

    Hawks have 5 first rounders on the roster. Two were drafted by other teams.

    EDIT – NM I figured it out. Same draft year. Sheesh. Age thing I believe.

  89. Hockeyman 99 says:

    cabbiesmacker,

    LOL. I wasn’t overly descriptive. :)

  90. commonfan14 says:

    Hockeyman 99: has stud goalie written all over him in the players eyes which will give them confidence.

    Is that why he gets benched for playoff games and his current team is trying to get rid of him? Because he’s a stud goalie who gives everyone confidence?

  91. godot10 says:

    You don’t have to trade the 1st round draft pick to improve the team. Especially in a year with compliance buyouts, and a reduced salary cap, and with outstanding top six type centre prospects in the top seven prospects.

    Guys like Marc Staal and/or Hjalmarsson might be available in trade because of the reduced cap.

    The defensemen we should want from Toronto is Gunnarsson, not Franson, nor Gardiner. Gunnarsson plays tough minutes. Franson plays butter soft minutes. Offer sheet Gunnarsson.
    (If the offer sheet to Gunnarsson fails, offer sheet Tanev.)

    Nashville is NOT going to trade Weber. Phoenix is NOT going to trade OEL. Whale-hunting is delusional.

    Phoenix has a lot of prospect defensemen that are going to have to clear waivers relatively soon. Try something like Hemsky for Runblad.

    Forget about whales and magic bullets. Get the future 2nd centre to pair with Nugent-Hopkins in the draft, and work the system to find the two D, and the depth forwards.

  92. hags9k says:

    I sat through and watched the fall for Hall, the lose for Nuge and the fail for Nail campaigns until the very bitter end but this time it’s different. I haven’t watched a minute of action since Lowe embarrassed Oilers’ hockey at that presser. Not sure if it was the 6 rings comment, the lockout, or our continued massive suck level but I’ve tuned out. I just need a little break from watching this meaningless hockey.

    On a positive note I see LT has earned a new radio gig. Congrats! Very deserved senor, and once I wake from this zombie apocalypse that has been the 2012-2013 Oiler season, I will try to find you on tuneinradio! I’m sure the show will be a success.

  93. denny33 says:

    Hockeyman 99,

    How about from Luongo himself:

    “My contract sucks!”

    That is being generous…

  94. Beaker says:

    12 games ago 1/4 of the season they were in the playoffs the stats looked a lot better. When things go south they really go south

    See, heres the problem. Im not sure if you are saying Dubnyk is great or crap. You contradict yourself so much. “Softies are a huge problem, lets get rid of him” then “hes going to be so good his contract is going to be HUGE” then “He loses games for our team! look at that 2-1 game” then im not sure if you are making the case saying “hes actually really good because his stats are great now but they were even better 12 games ago”

    If you say dubnyk could be moved because he has some perceived value and then replaced for less cost and therefor we improve the team while not degrading the value of our goal tending then fine, i get that. The rest just gets confusing.

    I disagree that were going to get Loungo for as cheap as you think and I also disagree that Dubnyk will land as big of a contract as you think but I get the premise otherwise. It would fit under the category of “bold”

  95. denny33 says:

    Beaker,

    Vancouver is planning on dressing two fans to play in Saturday’s game….big promotion.

  96. Beaker says:

    denny33,

    God i wish he didnt say that. people ar going to be taking that out of context for years and years

  97. asiaoil says:

    Hockeyman 99:
    He makes huge saves and then lets in sh!tty goals. That is a problem.

    i don’t care if EVERY goal he lets in is “shitty” if his SP is above .920 – and if you can’t see the reason for that then it’ not really worth discussing further.

  98. denny33 says:

    MrSmitty,

    I would not rule out a possibility of us finishing 5th and maybe someone ahead of us – maybe – taking a run at the big Russian. That would allow us to draft Barkov at 5.

  99. Hockeyman 99 says:

    commonfan14,

    Except Snyder is the anointed one and Lou managed to get into a lot more games than he should have as a back-up. I think that says something about what vigneult thinks about him. The situation he has been put in this year is horrible and he has still managed to be good this year

  100. Beaker says:

    denny33,

    I wouldnt rule out the distinct possibility we draft 3rd (barring someone behind us winning the lotto)

  101. Minister D- says:

    asiaoil,

    Beyond save %, isn’t there something to be said for a goalie who doesn’t exactly inspire confidence that he can make the easy saves? Not saying this situation directly applies to Dubnyk, but bad goals make the rest of players on the team feel helpless, like, “even when we’re actually playing alright we still give one up.” That can absolutely kill what’s left of energy/desire during a game.

    Also: the Oilers must be THE worst second period hockey team in the NHL. And no I haven’t looked up the stats to support this, someone else will I’m sure. But it seems like it’s the same script virtually every game: outshot, outplayed, outcompeted, badly in the middle frame. What’s going on here?

  102. Hockeyman 99 says:

    asiaoil,

    What do the old oilers still always say about Fuhr. We always knew he would make the big save when We needed it. wether you believe it or not there is momentum in a game and the timing of things happening has a huge effect on performance of the team as does the good goal bad goal. Its much easier to fight back from a goal that you would say the goalie didn’t have much chance on verses a opposing blue line goal.

  103. bookje says:

    It like good penalties are easier to kill. In other words, it sounds good, but has no actual basis in reality.

    Here is the thing. ALL goalies let in bad goals. You might not know this if you only watch Oilers hockey, but if you watch hockey more broadly, you see them all the time. On teams with a losing record, these goals seem heartbreaking, spiritbreaking, etc. WHY? Because they lose all of the time and have a hard time scoring goals so goals against suck. If you are on a winning team, then these bad goals have less of an emotional affect because you are used to winning.

    So, the point of the above is that while bad goals may seem to demoralize a team like the Oilers, in reality, it is losing that demoralizes them.

    In addition to this, I would argue that the players themselves are bright enough (at the NHL level) to recognize that they have a goalie that, on average, gives them a good chance to win. This is not like when the team had JDD or Markanan in net and it was understood by the players that they had sub-par goaltending.

    Furthermore, some goalies (large positional goalies) tend to let in more ‘bad looking’ goals than smaller, reflex goalies. In the end, it’s save percentage that really bears out how good a goalie is, particularly in a league where most games are won by one goal. It’s not exactly the 1980′s when 4 and 5 goal leads were common so you could ‘let in a few’ without worrying.

    With that said, you are all free to hold on to your beliefs that bad goals and good goals are a meaningful factor and that they are so significant that they should be somehow evaluated as being more important than save percentage. With that said, I certainly hope none of you are named Craig MacTavish – cause if you are – the Oilers are totally screwed.

  104. Hockeyman 99 says:

    Beaker,

    I will clarify my case.

    Trade for Loungo because he is as good or better than DD and has a reputation that will inspire confidence and help attract UFAs. His contract is actually good at $5.3 and Tim Thomas him in the last 3 years if he isn’t or doesn’t want to play for $1M a year

    Then Trade DD for Help where needed as he will have value. He is not the problem by numbers, but in my opinion lets in bad goals sometimes that hurt the young Oilers confidence. I never thought he would get $3.5M last year and I think with what McDonald got he will end up with a higher or even Cap hit compared to Lou after next year. I like DD but the goals he let in are questionable sometimes and I think that would be fine on a Veteran team but on a young team like ours I think its a Issue.

  105. Derek says:

    For those keeping score at home, its also easier to kill aggressive penatlies, big guys who can barely skate give professional athletes confidence, and good Canada boys from Kingston have +1 to their heart attribute.

    I think we need to trade Jordan Eberle. IMO he’s too soft, also his middle name is Leslie.

    Edit: Soundly beaten by Bookie on the penalty point, but I stand by my other assessments.

  106. Beaker says:

    Hockeyman 99:
    Beaker,

    I will clarify my case.

    Trade for Loungo because he is as good or better than DD and has a reputation that will inspire confidence and help attract UFAs. His contract is actually good at $5.3 and Tim Thomas him in the last 3 years if he isn’t or doesn’t want to play for $1M a year

    Then Trade DD for Help where needed as he will have value. He is not the problem by numbers, but in my opinion lets in bad goals sometimes that hurt the young Oilers confidence. I never thought he would get $3.5M last year and I think with what McDonald got he will end up with a higher or even Cap hit compared to Lou after next year. I like DD but the goals he let in are questionable sometimes and I think that would be fine on a Veteran team but on a young team like ours I think its a Issue.

    I follow all of that except the McDonald part… McDonald got under 1m so Dubnyk will get 5.5?

  107. Hockeyman 99 says:

    bookje,

    Except all the things the players say in regards to the emotion of a “good” penalty and killing it for their teammate go against what you wrote. There is a emotional side to sports which will never be able to be measured because it can’t be isolated.

  108. Jordan says:

    Hockeyman 99:
    asiaoil,

    What do the old oilers still always say about Fuhr. We always knew he would make the big save when We needed it. wether you believe it or not there is momentum in a game and the timing of things happening has a huge effect on performance of the team as does the good goal bad goal. Its much easier to fight back from a goal that you would say the goalie didn’t have much chance on verses a opposing blue line goal.

    Bringing up Fuhr or Moog is a non-starter. Sure they made big saves – they also let in bad goals. It was a different age in hockey goaltending.

    Might as well compare Dubnyk to rabbid chipmunk. “sure he’s small, but look at how quick his reaction speed is!”

    I know I shouldn’t be responding to this kind of trolling, but… seriously? come on….

  109. Hockeyman 99 says:

    Beaker,

    Sorry I meant Jimmy Howard

    Doing 3 things at once. My wife can do it but I max out at 2

  110. maudite says:

    No to big fish
    Yes to buyout bin after bidding for big fish’s services are gobbled up
    Term is so crucial going forward here
    Yes to a trade of our RW depth (incl Gagner) + for that 1 or 2 D
    Yes to offer sheet and gutting our draft picks 2014 to put longer term pieces that fit with cluster in place.
    No to trading a lottery pick

  111. Hockeyman 99 says:

    Jordan,

    I was not comparing Fuhr to DD I was referencing the feelings of confidence of timely saves. You are the troll I have not made one comment that was not based on hockey and have left chipmunks completely out of it.
    bookje,

    As I said earlier a veteran team is less effected by bad goals and yes it helps if you have the confidence that you can overcome them.

  112. franksterra says:

    godot10:
    You don’t have to trade the 1st round draft pick to improve the team.Especially in a year with compliance buyouts, and a reduced salary cap, and with outstanding top six type centre prospectsin the top seven prospects.

    Guys like Marc Staal and/or Hjalmarsson might be available in trade because of the reduced cap.

    The defensemen we should want from Toronto is Gunnarsson, not Franson, nor Gardiner.Gunnarsson plays tough minutes.Franson plays butter soft minutes. Offer sheet Gunnarsson.
    (If the offer sheet to Gunnarsson fails, offer sheet Tanev.)

    Nashville is NOT going to trade Weber.Phoenix is NOT going to trade OEL.Whale-hunting is delusional.

    Phoenix has a lot of prospect defensemen that are going to have to clear waivers relatively soon. Try something like Hemsky for Runblad.

    Forget about whales and magic bullets. Get the future 2nd centre to pair with Nugent-Hopkins in the draft, and work the system to find the two D, and the depth forwards.

    more or less this, plus a solid backup/platoon tender, plus Hardy Krueger picking his own assistants (ok, MacT may get a say, maybe not a bad thing) would be unfathomably awesome.

  113. nelson88 says:

    Count me in for trading the 2014 1st rounder for deliverable help today but it better be a hell of bounty in exchange for the 2013 1st rounder when you have very high end talent in your wheelhouse (C) at #5/6.

  114. bookje says:

    Hockeyman 99:
    bookje,

    Except all the things the players say in regards to the emotion of a “good” penalty and killing it for their teammate go against what you wrote. There is a emotional side to sports which will never be able to be measured because it can’t be isolated.

    It can be measured, people have done this for fights. What you do is isolate the time following the event that has been identified by the players as the time in which they are impacted. So, for example, if players are somehow emotionally disheartened after a ‘bad goal’ and this loss of motivation makes them play less effectively, the effect should be most notable in the minutes following the goal. As noted, this has been done after fights which players often identify as a ‘motivating factor’ and the results have suggested that fights have no impact on the play of the players.

    In terms of ‘bad goals’, you could do some kind of measure of bad goal percentages in the same way as scoring chances are examined. You could review all goals against for a few different goalies and see which ones are ‘bad goals’ . I am willing to bet money that save percentage is much more closely aligned with winning than bad goal percentage.

  115. Hockeyman 99 says:

    bookje,

    Then maybe a Goal Against Quality Stat would be useful.

  116. Hockeyman 99 says:

    I read about that a long time ago and felt that how as fans who have never played in the NHL can we discount what all the players say about these types of events? Isn’t the truth somewhere in the middle between Math and Saw him Good.

  117. bookje says:

    Hockeyman 99:
    I read about that a long time ago and felt that how as fans who have never played in the NHL can we discount what all the players say about these types of events? Isn’t the truth somewhere in the middle between Math and Saw him Good.

    So, isolate 100 instances of goals and watch how teams actually respond to ‘bad goals’ vs ‘good goals’. As someone who has studied human behaviour in areas other than the NHL, I can tell you that asking people about their behaviour in a casual way is almost always going to get you bad data. In depth self analysis can be better. So, when I see an in depth interview with players self analyzing their actual performance following a bad goal – perhaps while watching video – then I might give it some credence, but simply a comment that “That bad goal killed us out there” is not enough.

    It doens’t have to be numbers based, but it should be based upon some form of deeper analysis beyond ‘common wisdom’. These comments about Dubnyk’s bad goals at the very least need some context. Does he actually have a greater percentage of bad goals than other goalies? That is a starting point.

  118. Beaker says:

    Hockeyman 99:
    I read about that a long time ago and felt that how as fans who have never played in the NHL can we discount what all the players say about these types of events? Isn’t the truth somewhere in the middle between Math and Saw him Good.

    Math only works if you apply logic and thought behind it. Logic and thought would imply there are intangibles to players that cant be just seen in stats.

    Saw him good is only as good as understanding the fundementals as well as the fundemental undercurrents of the game. Stats help with understanding that.

    I cant stress enough how skewed “saw em good” can be, even with people who have been around hockey their whole lives. Personal bias is a real problem, math helps even that out.

  119. maudite says:

    Huge no to Luongo

    Find it hard to argue he ‘improves’ your goaltending. Signed too long and for more money (you can have DD and a backup for the price of Lou…thus giving you more money to spend on D, where you really need it). Terrible idea.

  120. ashley says:

    nelson88:
    Count me in for trading the 2014 1st rounder for deliverable help today but it better be a hell of bounty in exchange forthe 2013 1st rounder when you have very high end talent in your wheelhouse (C) at #5/6.

    Of course, and that’s just it. You don’t know what you don’t know. Put it out there and see what the bounty might be. Then you know.

    Also, we know what young, actual NHL players currently playing in the NHL can do. We can only speculate what an 18yo might do, but there is always a risk that he might disappoint you when he gets to the pro level. Many do. There is also the problem of having to wait for an 18 yo to have an impact on an NHL roster.

    We would never trade it for peanuts though. It would have to be a significant return. The door should be open for business.

  121. bendelson says:

    I would argue that DD has kept the Oilers in many a game this season. Those 2-1 type games you refer to (hockeyman) would likely have been 4 or 5-1 games without some very good goaltending. Last evening’s game is a good example. The game appeared much closer than it ever was thanks to DD hanging tough. No? How many breakaways are too many?

    Why this would lead to a lack of confidence in DD I don’t quite know… one bad goal here and there should be expected and absolutely tolerated from a big minutes goaltender.

    Without delving to deeply into your ‘Luongo’ musings let me just say that: clearly you like Luongo more than most around these parts hockeyman. Good luck with that.

  122. Beaker says:

    ashley: Of course, and that’s just it.You don’t know what you don’t know.Put it out there and see what the bounty might be. Then you know.

    Also, we know what young, actual NHL players currently playing in the NHL can do.We can only speculate what an 18yo might do, but there is always a risk that he might disappoint you when he gets to the pro level.Many do.There is also the problem of having to wait for an 18 yo to have an impact on an NHL roster.

    We would never trade it for peanuts though.It would have to be a significant return.The door should be open for business.

    Would have to be huge for this years first pick especially when its not a reach at all to believe that this years is going to be anywhere from 3-7. (Best guess is #4) If were drafting #3… wow..

  123. Hockeyman 99 says:

    maudite,

    How so? Howard in Detroit is getting Loungo money from a team that doesn’t like to spend money on goaltenders. Dubnyk will most likely get more than him if he has a similar season to this year as he will be 2 years younger. So now he will have the same cap hit as Lou. Lou’s contract nose dives in 5 years and will allow a team that doesn’t want to spend to presumably a $72M cap and $56M Floor(approx) the ability to use him as a back-up for an average $2M/yr or suspend him like thomas and stay either $4M or $5.3 M under the floor in actual dollars.

  124. jb says:

    If I were a ballsy GM I’d be looking to trade next years 1st this summer. You deal it knowing you’ll be adding at the deadline like in 06. The payoff could be huge if the guy your trading with see’s you in the 20-30 range again.

    Draft a Center this year for sure.

    I bet Horcoff plays out his contract and re-signs for 3rd/4th liner money.

  125. Hockeyman 99 says:

    bendelson,

    Hockeyman 99:
    Beaker,

    I will clarify my case.

    Trade for Loungo because he is as good or better than DD and has a reputation that will inspire confidence and help attract UFAs. His contract is actually good at $5.3 and Tim Thomas him in the last 3 years if he isn’t good enough or doesn’t want to play for $1M a year

    Then Trade DD for Help where needed as he will have value. He is not the problem by numbers, but in my opinion lets in bad goals sometimes that hurt the young Oilers confidence. I never thought he would get $3.5M last year and I think with what Howard got he will end up with a higher or even Cap hit compared to Lou after next year. I like DD but the goals he let in are questionable sometimes and I think that would be fine on a Veteran team but on a young team like ours I think its a Issue.

    Honestly I’ve only been a fan this year after seeing him handle himself.

    This is about making the team better, not getting rid of DD just to bring in Loungo or because of some softies. He has been better than I expected.

    That said I believe in the position.

  126. cabbiesmacker says:

    Sooooo. Jay-Z and Rocnation looking to get a piece of the Seth Jones action huh? Welcome to hockey’s version of the Tiger Woods Clasterfack.

    I wouldn’t draft the kid now if I had the first, second and third picks..

    KL……”you know I have 6 rings right”?

    JZ……”you know I have 6 shots right?”

  127. dessert1111 says:

    If we draft third and the first two picks are Jones and Drouin, do we take MacKinnon or Barkov? Do we take Drouin if he falls? If we pick 4 or 5 I feel like the choice will be easier.

    Not surprised they signed one of the goalies, and not surprised which one. I don’t mind the move — does he play in OKC next year? Maybe a dual tandem with Roy and Bunz trying again to be the #1 guy in Stockton?

    Presumably they’re letting Hoivinen (and Danis) go, so having three guys in the pipeline isn’t a bad idea, and they’ll draft another one this year. The only problem is none of them seems like a good #3 NHL option, so maybe they leave Tuohimaa overseas and keep Danis for their #3 for another year. I can’t picture any of the goalie prospects being called up to Edmonton next year unless they have a very good start.

  128. bendelson says:

    Hockeyman 99,

    Luongo could very well have already played his best hockey. If you want to make the argument you are making for improving the team by trading DD – I would suggest picking a better/younger goalie to focus on…

    Final thought: A team should be expected to overcome a bad goal. I’m not sure a goalie should be expected to overcome a bad team.

  129. Hockeyman 99 says:

    cabbiesmacker,

    Thats so Funny when I heard that all that came to mind was Allen Iverson for some reason. Hopefully he gets a hockey agent.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eGDBR2L5kzI

  130. Hockeyman 99 says:

    bendelson,

    It only works if you can get an equal Goalie without giving up roster players.

    That is the whole lost point I was trying to make, along with the fact that Lou’s contract is perceived incorrectly and that that presents an opportunity.

  131. refmaksy says:

    Clay: Culture and compete level are great, but they’re meaningless without poise.

    Clay / DeBakey: this is funny shit, thank you!

    For this year’s playoffs, I’m cheering for the leafs because I like the way they are winning by playing tough, and I always cheers for the western Canadian entry, so I’ll be cheering for Canucks even though their fans are morons. Maksy.

  132. Doomoil says:

    Hockeyman 99:
    bendelson,

    It only works if you can get an equal Goalie without giving up roster players.

    That is the whole lost point I was trying to make, along with the fact that Lou’s contract is perceived incorrectly and that that presents an opportunity.

    that’s your perception.

    doesn’t make it right.

  133. maudite says:

    Hockeyman 99:
    maudite,

    How so? Howard in Detroit is getting Loungo money from a team that doesn’t like to spend money on goaltenders. Dubnyk will most likely get more than him if he has a similar season to this year as he will be 2 years younger. So now he will have the same cap hit as Lou. Lou’s contract nose dives in 5 years and will allow a team that doesn’t want to spend to presumably a $72M cap and $56M Floor(approx) the ability to use him as a back-up for an average $2M/yr or suspend him like thomas and stay either $4M or $5.3 M under the floor in actual dollars.

    Look at this teams structure. Cap hit, not real dollars are going to be the problem here. In 2 years, if Dubnyk performs like he is, he might come in around Lou money. If he does, great, sign him to Lou money on a 3-5 year deal. He’ll be 28 or so so early 30′s when that is done. In 2 years, Lou is 36 years old. If he declines, you are still paying stuck with a 5.3 cap hit until…..wait for it…..2022. If we are aspiring to be an actual competitive team, that cap hit is a death march. Even the arguement that you could offload that deal to a cap floor team doesn’t likely hold water as not a lot of cap floor teams likely have much interest in the buying out any contracts. The deal is way too long. Any team that has a lot of high priced talent and juggling very soon will commence keeping it should not touch that contract.

  134. godot10 says:

    You don’t have to trade 1st round picks to improve a team from 25th to the playoffs. There are all sorts of ways to find players without sacrificing long term sustained competitiveness.

    GM’s with non-playoffs teams who trade 1st round picks are incompetent, lazy, or both.

  135. godot10 says:

    The problem with Luongo’s contract is not the salary, it is the duration. You are betting your franchise and rebuild on one aging declining player.

    Under the new CBA, it is impossible (less $900K) to bury bad contracts.

    If the Canucks buy Luongo out, then I’d be interested. But without a buyout, the duration of that contract is a team killer.

  136. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Oilers are 29th in the NHL in shots against. They are 20th in goals against.

    Goaltending is NOT the problem.

  137. Lowetide says:

    Bruce McCurdy:
    Oilers are 29th in the NHL in shots against. They are 20th in goals against.

    Goaltending is NOT the problem.

    Agree but there does seem to be an indicator or two that the Oilers are not completely satisfied.

  138. Hockeyman 99 says:

    godot10,

    If they buy him out someone will sign him to a 5 year $5.3M dollar contract and at that point your better off keeping Dubnyk.

  139. Hockeyman 99 says:

    Bruce McCurdy,

    If you could have Loungo and #3-4 instead of DD you don’t think that may be part of the solution.

  140. Hockeyman 99 says:

    godot10,

    You must remember Tim Thomas and how the Bruins got rid of his Cap hit this year and he wasn’t Playing. How many times can I State this?

  141. Lowetide says:

    Hockeyman 99:
    Bruce McCurdy,

    If you could have Loungo and #3-4 instead of DD you don’t think that may be part of the solution.

    I’d stay with Dubnyk, shorter term deal and he’s fine in the role. Luongo is on the downside and out of step with the young cluster.

  142. Hockeyman 99 says:

    maudite,

    If you want a High caliber Goalie to go with your cluster it is going to cost money $5.3M is fair for Lou.
    Cap should start going up after next year.

    The real crux of the situation is to get RNH and Schultz on bridge deals.

  143. Gret99zky says:

    jb:

    I bet Horcoff plays out his contract and re-signs for 3rd/4th liner money.

    Nooooooooooooo.

    I truly believe the Oilers will not make the playoffs as long as Horcoff remains on the roster.

    Something to do with going down to the crossroads.

  144. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Lowetide: Agree but there does seem to be an indicator or two that the Oilers are not completely satisfied.

    Yeah, one hears rumblings to this end. My own view is that Oilers got a lot bigger problems that need actual fixing, but what do I know?

  145. Lowetide says:

    Bruce McCurdy: Yeah, one hears rumblings to this end. My own view is that Oilers got a lot bigger problems that need actual fixing, but what do I know?

    I think that’s going to be their Moby Dick. Goaltending. Lordy.

  146. Gret99zky says:

    One things for sure.

    MacT has one hell of a lot of work to do.

    And I sincerely doubt he can get it done in one season.

    Trading our 2014 first for the right piece might fast track it a little.

  147. RickDeckard says:

    Oilers need a Kessel type trade to cap the rebuild. What are some LHD that are coming off their ELCs and play for cap strapped teams?

  148. bookje says:

    Lowetide: I think that’s going to be their Moby Dick. Goaltending. Lordy.

    If the Oilers were to ship out DD and bring in Luongo it would certainly solve the “Is MacT smart?” question.

  149. tsunami says:

    Hockeyman 99:
    godot10,

    You must remember Tim Thomas and how the Bruins got rid of his Cap hit this year and he wasn’t Playing. How many times can I State this?

    Thomas will be an UFA by the end of the season… How can you compare him to Lou who has a 5.3 cap hit until 2022 ???

  150. tsunami says:

    bookje: If the Oilers were to ship out DD and bring in Luongo it would certainly solve the “Is MacT smart?” question.

    Haha, exactly !

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