DEVAN DUBNYK RE 12-13: JUNGLELAND

Devan Dubnyk represents  a high water mark for the Oilers in terms of drafting goaltenders. Only Grant Fuhr and Andy Moog rank ahead of him in GP by an Oiler draft pick.

Devan Dubnyk 10-11

  • Boxcars: 35gp, 2.71
  • SP: .916
  • WLT: 12-13-8
  • SP behind starter: Dubnyk was 26 points clear of the veteran

Devan Dubnyk 11-12

  • Boxcars: 42gp, 2.67
  • SP: .914
  • WLT: 20-20-3
  • SP behind starter: Dubnyk was the starter, 4 clear of NK

Devan Dubnyk 12-13

  • Boxcars: 38gp, 2.57
  • SP: .920
  • WLT: 14-16-6
  • SP behind starter: Dubnyk was the starter, 3 behind NK

ALL TIME GP LIST FOR OILER DRAFTS (GOALIES)

  1. Grant Fuhr 868
  2. Andy Moog 713
  3. Devan Dubnyk 139
  4. Jussi Markkanen 128
  5. Jeff Deslauriers 62

  1. What do these numbers tell us? He’s a pretty good NHL goalie. I’d put him 14-18 among NHL starting G’s. 
  2. Man, the Oilers have sucked drafting goalies since Moog and Fuhr. Yeah, although Dubnyk will have a career barring injury.
  3. MacT isn’t impressed. Actually, MacT has chosen his words carefully and I think that shows he does like him. DD isn’t a top level goalie, but there’s still room for him to move up the ladder. I don’t think there’s any harm in wanting more from your young players.
  4. He’s not young. Still developing. Goalies are funny.
  5. Funny how? You know, just…funny.
  6. No I’m seri—haha, we could do that all day. He’s subpar at EV SP. 20th among regulars, .922. Overall, he was tied for 14th at .920. I think we can be fairly certain he’s in the ‘average’ range, and that’s good enough for now.
  7. For now? If Dubnyk tops out at #14G among league starters that’s not going to be an issue until he loses a playoff series.
  8. Can he be better? I assume so, what I don’t know about goalies is a helluva lot.
  9. Can he be luckier? Yeah, I think so. He had some weird GA this season, some real strange stuff.
  10. Is that what MacT saw? Hell I don’t know. MacT said something about if you have to ask, which is kind of old timey lingo for I know what I know and the book is closed.
  11. Is he GONE? How the hell would I know?
  12. Luongo! Dammit they’re trading for Luongo! Oh settle down.
  13. Why this song? I think it’s about survival, and survival in a tough part of the city. Things are happening and most of it isn’t any good, and maybe you’re going to be successful but you and Jeff Deslauriers were about even three years ago and maybe you’ll be about even three years from now. It’s a helluva way to make a living, really.
  14. What do you mean? How many goalies are there in the established hockey world in one season? Say 70 in the NHL, double it for the AHL and then add another 50 in the ECHL. Let’s say there are 100 more in Europe who at least one scout could see grabbing a NA job. So, that’s 300 goalies trying for 30 starting NHL jobs and every year there’s so much movement your head is spinning. And maybe you signed a two year deal a year ago and maybe the GM said ‘congrats’ and maybe you thought it was a pretty good year. But now there’s a new boss and the paper says he thinks you’re a work in progress.
  15. Huh. Yeah.

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35 Responses to "DEVAN DUBNYK RE 12-13: JUNGLELAND"

  1. Racki says:

    Lots of people pick on Dubnyk for his “one bad goal against per game”. I personally don’t find that a problem at all, because he stops a lot that he has no business stopping, in my opinion. I think he’s a solid enough goaltender, while in the net.

    The problem I have with him is that he’s like Horcoff playing with the butt-end of his stick, when he’s outside of his net. I’ve been ranting lately how I’d love to see what a puck handler like Mike Smith would do for us. But I know that will come at an over pay (or overly long contract).

    But I personally think that part of this “puck possession” game MacT wants hangs on the goaltending. Both Dub and Khabi are awful puck handlers. A team can dump it in on us from center all night and get the puck back with ease. We need someone who is going to start our d-zone breakout on the right foot, imho. Even with the trapezoid, I think that still is an important skill to have.

  2. spoiler says:

    I too think MacT was careful with his verbal on Doobie. Doobie hasn’t answered all the questions and 1G is a position that can be improved upon.

    My inclination is to go after someone like Emery… someone who can play 1G if Doobie fails to carry the mail.

    The drawbacks with Emery are that the cap price might be high… or that he might want to be guaranteed a starting role to begin the season.

    I like Khudobin, but he comes with the same big question mark as Doobs… ie can he provide consistently strong EV netminding playing most of the games?

  3. spoiler says:

    Racki:
    Lots of people pick on Dubnyk for his “one bad goal against per game”. I personally don’t find that a problem at all, because he stops a lot that he has no business stopping, in my opinion. I think he’s a solid enough goaltender, while in the net.

    The problem I have with him is that he’s like Horcoff playing with the butt-end of his stick, when he’s outside of his net. I’ve been ranting lately how I’d love to see what a puck handler like Mike Smith would do for us. But I know that will come at an over pay (or overly long contract).

    But I personally think that part of this “puck possession” game MacT wants hangs on the goaltending. Both Dub and Khabi are awful puck handlers. A team can dump it in on us from center all night and get the puck back with ease. We need someone who is going to start our d-zone breakout on the right foot, imho. Even with the trapezoid, I think that still is an important skill to have.

    He seems way too nonchalant when leaving his crease to handle the puck. I’m much more concerned about his EV SV% though as that is a far bigger chunk of the game.

  4. spoiler says:

    What Bob Cole is not telling us with his intro is that he was AT that Joe Louis vs James J. Braddock 1937 heavyweight fight!

  5. Racki says:

    spoiler: He seems way too nonchalant when leaving his crease to handle the puck.I’m much more concerned about his EV SV% though as that is a far bigger chunk of the game.

    I personally think people over-emphasize stats too much. I mean, yah, they’re important.. but sometimes people lose site of how minute a difference 0.920 and say a 0.927 is.

    Also, another thing.. this year, Craig Anderson was a 0.943 EV S%… last year he was 0.920 ES S%. This number put him behind Dubnyk, even. Bobrovsky was a 0.916 last year with Philly, this year he’s 0.941 with Columbus… the goalie isn’t the only factor in SV%.

    There are too many other factors that go into these kinds of stats too. Not every shot is equal, but the SV% stat treats them that way. I don’t believe they just balance out over a season either, because a team’s style of defence, or even defensive ability doesn’t balance out.

    Anyways, what kind of difference are we talking in # of goals against for that 0.05 or so that separates Dubnyk from the higher half of goaltenders? Maybe half a dozen goals on the season.

    Maybe I’ll dig more into this stat later on, but I think it gets misinterpreted a bit too much.

  6. lakedr.pepper says:

    It’s been rumored Mike Smith wants 6-7 million from Phoenix. I highly doubt they give him that, but maybe Toronto or NYI give him 4-5+.

    I have a strange feeling about the Oilers and Halak.

  7. godot10 says:

    Mike Smith couldn’t stop a beach ball when Dave Tippett hasn’t been his coach. Just as much chance that he is Bryz #2 and not CuJo #2.

    Halak is a much better risk/reward, especially since St. Louis might want to go after a Luongo, Miller, or Bryz #2.

    Dubnyk and Halak, both earning about the same, both with one year left on their contract. Showdown for a new contract at Rexall.

  8. spoiler says:

    Racki: I personally think people over-emphasize stats too much. I mean, yah, they’re important.. but sometimes people lose site of how minute a difference 0.920 and say a 0.927 is.

    Also, another thing.. this year, Craig Anderson was a 0.943 EV S%… last year he was 0.920 ES S%. This number put him behind Dubnyk, even. Bobrovsky was a 0.916 last year with Philly, this year he’s 0.941 with Columbus… the goalie isn’t the only factor in SV%.

    There are too many other factors that go into these kinds of stats too.Not every shot is equal, but the SV% stat treats them that way. I don’t believe they just balance out over a season either, because a team’s style of defence, or even defensive ability doesn’t balance out.

    Anyways, what kind of difference are we talking in # of goals against for that 0.05 or so that separates Dubnyk from the higher half of goaltenders? Maybe half a dozen goals on the season.

    Maybe I’ll dig more into this stat later on, but I think it gets misinterpreted a bit too much.

    Don’t put too much time into it. Vic Ferrari has already done the work.

    Here’s the: money quote:

    The ability of defensemen to affect shot quality against does exist in the population, but it is so small that we will never be able to sensibly apply it to any player in particular. And a paradox is created, the type of defensemen who are helping the goalie save percentage a bit (presumably because they make fewer mistakes of the spectacularly bad variety) are, as a group, seeing slightly worse save percentages behind them, because they are the guys the coaches are leaning on to play tougher opposition. And the guys who have talent but are guilty of the occasional egregious error … as a group, they do a whisker better than average by 5v5 save percentage score. This is presumably because their coaches have the good sense not to play them much against Malkin, Kovalchuk and Heatley types.

  9. G Money says:

    Racki:

    There are too many other factors that go into these kinds of stats too.Not every shot is equal, but the SV% stat treats them that way. I don’t believe they just balance out over a season either, because a team’s style of defence, or even defensive ability doesn’t balance out.

    Heh heh, this made me think of what one might put in a survey on “Oilers Defensive Style?” … “None”? “N/A”?

    The reality is that the Oilers not only gave up a ton of shots, but also a ton of top quality scoring chances. It’s not unreasonable to think that putting up ‘average’ numbers in that situation is actually quite above average.

    I look forward to your digging into the SV% stat!

  10. Racki says:

    spoiler: Don’t put too much time into it.Vic Ferrari has already done the work.

    Here’s the: money quote:

    The ability of defensemen to affect shot quality against does exist in the population, but it is so small that we will never be able to sensibly apply it to any player in particular. And a paradox is created, the type of defensemen who are helping the goalie save percentage a bit (presumably because they make fewer mistakes of the spectacularly bad variety) are, as a group, seeing slightly worse save percentages behind them, because they are the guys the coaches are leaning on to play tougher opposition. And the guys who have talent but are guilty of the occasional egregious error … as a group, they do a whisker better than average by 5v5 save percentage score. This is presumably because their coaches have the good sense not to play them much against Malkin, Kovalchuk and Heatley types.

    I should have known that the stats guys would have their butts covered. lol

    But nonetheless, that still doesn’t really answer my other comment.. sure, Dubnyk’s SV% was lower-mid starter caliber this year… but last year it was in the top half of goalies who played > 25 games. Which Dubnyk is it that we have here?

    I suppose in today’s tight NHL those half dozen goals on a year could equate to a few wins more. But I am not so sure that Dubnyk’s ES SV% is that far off the mark to be too concerned.

    That all said, I’m starting to sound like a big Dubnyk fan here. Quite frankly, I do feel that we could upgrade this position too.

  11. regwald says:

    My view on DD is that he’s covered the bet. He gets the job done and he’s stealing some games and comes up big when they need to. Remember how bad this team was in their own end. They were awful at times. Okay, most times.

    I think his stats say he is average or slightly above average on a BAD hockey team. On a team that is bad defensively.

    For sure he is still a work in progress, but he’s our work in progress and he keeps showing improvement. If you look at problems with the team, there’s lots bigger fish to fry instead of an upgrade in goal. Get a strong #2 option to push him and be an insurance policy. That is all that is needed.

  12. Rondo says:

    Interesting comment on the Elias Lindholm link re: Barkov

    “Ville Niemenen was on the Fan this am. He played the year with Barkov and loves the kid. BUT he did say that the Finnish league is almost all skill based. Almost non-contact. Easier to flash skilled hands when no gorillas are slamming into you. Not sure if this is true but it a a big Red Flag for me. See Cervenka, Roman for a recent example of what can happen when skill players make the pond jump. Barkov is bigger which helps but does not solve the problem.”

    Have you heard that the Finnish league is non contact LT?

  13. Bar_Qu says:

    I do think Dubnyk gets a bad rap, ut in same way a Jimmy Howard or Osgood does. They are not seen as good goalies, but they are good enough to get the job done. But because Dubnyk isn’t a proven ‘winner’, he would have to go out to more extreme lengths to prove his ability.

    I really think with Dubnyk and a good 1B backup (say Emery for argument’s sake) would provide the Oilers with enough of a chance to win more often than not.

    But only if the defense and bottom six improves. Because Sawchuk couldn’t have saved this team this year.

  14. spoiler says:

    Racki: I should have known that the stats guys would have their butts covered. lol

    But nonetheless, that still doesn’t really answer my other comment.. sure, Dubnyk’s SV% was lower-mid starter caliber this year… but last year it was in the top half of goalies who played > 25 games. Which Dubnyk is it that we have here?

    I suppose in today’s tight NHL those half dozen goals on a year could equate to a few wins more. But I am not so sure that Dubnyk’s ES SV% is that far off the mark to be too concerned.

    That all said, I’m starting to sound like a big Dubnyk fan here. Quite frankly, I do feel that we could upgrade this position too.

    Your point is valid in that we don’t know where Doobie’s bottom, top or middle are yet (the good lady beside me just advised that the glowing end is NOT the middle). I think we’ll have a much better idea 200 games in, so by the end of next season.

    In the meantime MacT is dead-on correct. As it stands right now, there is no Plan B… the kind of situation that drives coaches’ insomnia right round the bend.

  15. Racki says:

    spoiler: Your point is valid in that we don’t know where Doobie’s bottom, top or middle are yet (the good lady beside me just advised that the glowing end is NOT the middle).I think we’ll have a much better idea 200 games in, so by the end of next season.

    In the meantime MacT is dead-on correct. As it stands right now, there is no Plan B… the kind of situation that drives coaches’ insomniaright round the bend.

    Yup, even if the Oilers don’t replace Dubnyk with another starter, they at least have to get him a qualified backup. No one can tell me that the only goalies available in Tambellini’s tenure were Khabi, Danis, and Gerber. Terrible negligence on his part (although we are made to assume that this was by design, for tanking reasons). There’s been plenty of good goaltending talent bouncing around out there, so he had his chances.

    At least he took a stab at picking up Ben Bishop though. That would have been a respectable addition, I think.

    I have high hopes that MacT will acquire a goalie to help out here, whether it’s a UFA like Khudobin or Smith or he has to do it by trade. It’ll be interesting to see what he does this summer.

  16. Lowetide says:

    Rondo:
    Interesting comment on the Elias Lindholm linkre: Barkov

    “Ville Niemenen was on the Fan this am. He played the year with Barkov and loves the kid. BUT he did say that the Finnish league is almost all skill based. Almost non-contact. Easier to flash skilled hands when no gorillas are slamming into you. Not sure if this is true but it a a big Red Flag for me. See Cervenka, Roman for a recent example of what can happen when skill players make the pond jump. Barkov is bigger which helps but does not solve the problem.”

    Have you heard that the Finnish league is non contact LT?

    I know it’s contact, but wouldn’t know how it compares to the NHL.

  17. sliderule says:

    I have never seen a Finnish SM liiga game but I always heard the Finns played a north American style.

  18. Rondo says:

    Kent Wilson has an interesting take on Lindholm

    “First of all, eight of Lindholm’s 11 goals came on the PP, meaning he scored just 3 times at 5on5 this year. I can’t determine how much of his overall offense was garnerd on the PP nor what is the normal rate in the SEL for most forwards, but scoring just 27% of your markers at even strength is a bit of a red flag for me.

    In addition, Lindholm fired just 77 shots on net in 48 games, or just 1.6/game, which means his shooting percentage was about 14.3% on the season. That’s a low shot rate and high SH% in the NHL, suggesting Lindholm is either a very accurate Tanguay-like shooter, or a guy who saw the bounces go his way this season. Add those up and it suggests his true goal scoring talent might be a little exaggerated by his output this year.”

  19. Racki says:

    I can’t say I know a damn thing about the subject, but I think the Finns play a more physical game than most Europeans. Cervenka played in the KHL and the Czech league, so you’re not really comparing apples to apples here with that comparison. Although I’d say with a lot of authority that the North American game is a lot more physical than any of the Euro leagues, so it’s likely a fairly valid point.

    Teemu Hartikainen came out of the same league, and he plays pretty physical. That said, I don’t think the Finnish league has really been one of those go-to leagues for scouts though. So I think it’s enough to cast a little doubt.

    In reality, Ville Niemenen would know more about the league than any of us yahoos. So if he says the league is fairly low contact, I guess that is likely true, no?

  20. spoiler says:

    SM Liiga hit parade:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mee_I7xgOec

    That said you can watch some games and not see a hit for long stretches. Lots of stick checks and fighting for position though.

    (From the video I have seen)

  21. flyfish1168 says:

    I have never seen a stat of shots faced by a goalie from the kill zone. If one create stats like kill zone shots, blue line or two on one faced, I believe this would be a more accurate representation of how well your goal is playing. Lets face it Devan faces more difficult shots than most goalies due to our porous defense and give aways. Yes he lets in the occasional bad goal but who doesn’t.

  22. jp says:

    regwald:
    My view on DD is that he’s covered the bet. He gets the job done and he’s stealing some games and comes up big when they need to. Remember how bad this team was in their own end. They were awful at times. Okay, most times.

    I think his stats say he is average or slightly above average on a BAD hockey team. On a team that is bad defensively.

    For sure he is still a work in progress, but he’s our work in progress and he keeps showing improvement. If you look at problems with the team, there’s lots bigger fish to fry instead of an upgrade in goal. Get a strong #2 option to push him and be an insurance policy. That is all that is needed.

    Completely agree. Dubnyk finished 14th in the NHL in overall SV% this season on a team that was 29th in SA. I think that’s worth a few extra points, plus 2 of the guys ahead of him were clear backups – so we can say clearly in the top half of the leagues starters in SV% on a terrible team.

    Some depth behind him (and in the org in general) is needed, but paying a premium for a Luongo would be a terrible move imo.

    Racki: I should have known that the stats guys would have their butts covered. lol

    But nonetheless, that still doesn’t really answer my other comment.. sure, Dubnyk’s SV% was lower-mid starter caliber this year… but last year it was in the top half of goalies who played > 25 games. Which Dubnyk is it that we have here?

    I suppose in today’s tight NHL those half dozen goals on a year could equate to a few wins more. But I am not so sure that Dubnyk’s ES SV% is that far off the mark to be too concerned.

    That all said, I’m starting to sound like a big Dubnyk fan here. Quite frankly, I do feel that we could upgrade this position too.

    As above, Dubnyk’s overall SV% was actually above average for starters this season. His EV SV% was below average, but he was “lucky” on the PK. Last year it was the inverse if I remember correctly, and there was discussion to the effect that “he’s OK at EV strength, but he can’t stop a beachball on the PK”. I think tallness/slow lateral movement was even cited as the flaw.

    There’s no doubt Dubnyk can, and should be challenged to, take another step to move towards being an elite goalie. That said, I personally don’t think the Oilers should be spending much in the way of assets to improve the G position.

    In terms of how much difference .005 in SV% makes in real goals – it’s 5 fewer GA in Dubnyk’s case.
    Real Dubnyk 1132 SA X .920 of those saved = 1042 SVS (allowing for rounding error) = 90 GA
    Improved Dubnyk 1132 SA X .925 saved = 1047 SVS = 85 GA
    His GAA would have gone from 2.57 to 2.42. It might only be a “few” goals, but that can mean a couple of wins, and those can come in handy at the end of the season (or be a pesky annoyance like the couple of wins the Oil pulled off to end this year). All that to say is that 5 goals can easily mean a standings place or two…

  23. FastOil says:

    Racki,

    ” No one can tell me that the only goalies available in Tambellini’s tenure were Khabi, Danis, and Gerber.”

    It seems to me part of Tambellini’s problem was taking people at their word, instead of looking directly at performance and especially improving performance. Basically trusting too much.

    I know I’ve done that. Mostly not as an NHL coach or GM either;). Dubnyk is a stable average NHL goalie. Maybe the message is that MacT wants more than that, and he’s given notice to Dubnyk in a nice way. The Oilers have often had better than average goaltending (MacT enjoyed that at times as a player and coach) and he wants that now for the team.

  24. Ribs says:

    Made as many saves as Jimmy Howard this season. WWDD?

  25. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Oilers finished 29th in shots against per game, & 19th in goals against per game. I don’t believe the problem is goaltending.

    Even if DD is only average, it’s quite possible to build a contending team with some average areas and some above-average ones. It’s the weak areas that will kill you. The Oilers have plenty of those, but again, goaltending is not one of them.

    Plus, he is still getting better. MacT is right to demand more out of him, but I think he has more to give.

  26. Lowetide says:

    Tambellini’s problem was that he couldn’t judge talent. The kids weren’t his department, and the men he brought in didn’t deliver in any of the roles.

  27. cabbiesmacker says:

    spoiler:
    What Bob Cole is not telling us with his intro is that he was AT that Joe Louis vs James J. Braddock 1937 heavyweight fight!

    That would go a long way towards explaining why the boobs such a Detroit slobber groupie I bet.

    Seriously? The guy needs to get off the air and back to the Shady Elms Home for the Incontinent. His best before date was around 12 years ago. Hopefully he has Millen in his suitcase when he departs too. Bonus if that suitcase is completely airtight.

  28. asiaoil says:

    Tambellini was way over his head as a GM but he did handle DD’s development well for the most part. Started him the E then a few seasons of the AHL before making a slow progression to starter. MacT is pretty much clueless when it comes to goalies (his comments are confused and not much use to anyone) so the further away he is kept from the goalies the better.

    DDs situational numbers are fun to argue but not worth much. Not enough seasons in the can to make anything more than broad judgements. Last year the meme was his good ES and poor PK SP which was supposedly due to a lack of mobility. This year the numbers are upside down and so what happened? Did he suddenly become a gazelle or does shit happen in small samples? Clearly it’s the latter. All you can really say is that his overall SP is fine for a guy who just completed his first full season as a starter on a terrible team. Goaltending was not an issue for the Oilers last year.

    I said I’d wait until the end of this season to make a final call on this kid and he’s pretty much met the level I thought he could reach after being drafted. He’s a NHL starter and on track to have a long career like my longtime comp for him – Sean Burke. Is he Roy or Hasek? Well obviously no – but the kid’s very tough mentally and slowly but surely cutting out the lapses in concentration and bad goals. Could his stick work be better? Of course. But for where he was drafted, what he’s accomplished under very difficult circumstances, and what he’s paid – the kid has covered the bet easily. There about a dozen other glaring issues that need to be addressed before goaltending on the Oilers and they are fools if they spend more than $1.5 million for a quality backup.

  29. SK Oiler Fan says:

    I’d like to see a standard deviation stat (consistency) beside the SV% for goalies. in 11/12 my recollection was DD’s SV% was quite volitile game to game. I’m too lazy to look in to it, but he seemed more consistent in 13.
    When your team offers as little run support as the Oilers for each game, consitency is critical.

    I know the hardcore stats guys will say it doesn’t matter when the goals are given up (it’s how many), but it’s a steep hill to climb coming from behind night after night in the NHL. The Oilers (and DD) of 2013 had a habit of giving up early goals which forced them into playing catchup most of the time. I’m guessing this is part of MacT’s room for improvement stance on DD.

    Man it would be nice to have 2 or 3 Gs that have the ability to get hot for long stretches – see the Sens

  30. Puckberger says:

    cabbiesmacker,

    Are they waiting for him to literally croak on air? The viewer is totally bentover having his painful game calls the only option on TV

    CBC is just so bad on so many levels its boggles the mind. Kevin weekes , glen healey , pj stock , Milbury, Millen earlier this year said Tamby was a great GM….even Kelly Rudey is awful , god bless his soul!

    The 2 shining lights are Freidman and Andi petrillo during the intermission, I would wife that saint in a heartbeat …..

  31. edwards_daddy says:

    “I think he has it in him, ability wise, to be able to be, a chance to have a starting role,”

    “But I need a statement this year. I need a statement from him, physically, that he’s brought himself to a totally different level that can match No. 1 goaltenders in the NHL. He hasn’t done that yet.

    “I need someone that can bring me months of play that shows me he’s the guy; he’s the guy we can rely on.”

    That’s what Tambellini said about DD 12 months ago. Maybe Devan is the laid-back sort and needs a fire under his back-end – especially at the start of the summer.
    Last thing MacT wants, after spending all summer wheeling and dealing, is for the season to come off the rails because his goalie has spent all summer drinking bud and eating roast dinners.

  32. ashley says:

    I think the stats doubters out of line in this thread. While I’ve come to rely on corsi, fenwick, PDO etc (with some caveats of course) I’m not as convinced on SP as an isolated measure of goaltender quality.

    I’ve read Ferrari’s analysis several times. It’s too simplistic and open to confounders. Some things just aren’t explained, and for me, the conclusion does not follow seamlessly from the data presented. Nonetheless, I applaud the effort.

    For example, why is SP so much higher in the playoffs? A bunch of goalies suddenly find their A game? That seems unlikely. I think there are team effects, and defensive style effects that play into this stat that the analysis missed, perhaps because the data are too noisy.

  33. SK Oiler Fan says:

    RickDeckard:
    SK Oiler Fan,

    Does this help?

    http://nhlnumbers.com/2012/5/11/the-myth-of-the-hot-goalie-consistent-goaltenders-vs-inconsistent-goaltenders

    Seen that before. Those are 6 of the top goalies of the past 5 years. You need more goalies for those conclusions, especially ones like DD who are considered average.

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