JORDAN EBERLE RE 12-13: THE TIES THAT BIND

For some unknown reason, many Oiler fans appear to delight in Jordan Eberle’s fall in shooting percentage (from 18.89 to 12.03). On the way to making their point, they may have missed another one: Jordan Eberle is a fine NHL player.

JORDAN EBERLE 10-11

  • 5×5 points per 60: 1.82 (4th among regular forwards)
  • 5×4 points per 60: 3.94 (3rd among regular forwards)
  • Qual Comp: 3rd toughest among regular forwards
  • Qual Team: 8th best teammates among regular forwards
  • Corsi Rel: 8.7 (2nd best among regular forwards)
  • Zone Start: 49.3% (8th most difficult among regular forwards)
  • Zone Finish: 51.6% (6th best among regular forwards)
  • Shots on goal/percentage: 158/11.4% (5th among F’s>100 shots)
  • Boxcars: 68gp, 18-25-43 (led the team in points as a rookie)
  • Plus Minus: -12 on a team that was -52.

JORDAN EBERLE 11-12

  • 5×5 points per 60: 3.08 (1st among regular F’s, 2nd in NHL)
  • 5×4 points per 60: 4.77 (4th among regular F’s)
  • Qual Comp: 5th toughest among regular forwards
  • Qual Team: 3rd best teammates among regular forwards
  • Corsi Rel: 5.7 (5th best among regular forwards)
  • Zone Start: 60.7 % (2nd easiest among regular forwards)
  • Zone Finish: 54.5% (best among regular forwards)
  • Shots on goal/percentage: 180/18.9% (1st among F’s>100 shots)
  • Boxcars: 78, 34-42-76 (led the team in points for 2nd year in a row)
  • Plus Minus: +4 on a team that was -26.

JORDAN EBERLE 12-13

  • 5×5 points per 60: 2.31 (2nd among regular forwards)
  • 5×4 points per 60: 3.46 (7th among regular forwards)
  • Qual Comp: 3rd toughest among regular forwards (top line opp)
  • Qual Team: best teammates among regular forwards
  • Corsi Rel: 21.9 (best among regular forwards)
  • Zone Start: 51.1% (5th most difficult among regular forwards)
  • Zone Finish: 50.0% (8th best among regular forwards)
  • Shots on goal/percentage: 133/12.03% (3rd among F’s>70 shots)
  • Boxcars: 48, 16-21-37
  • Plus Minus: -4 on a team that was -15.
  1. What do the numbers tell us? Eberle actually outpeformed RE (48, 14-18-32) and despite many people suggesting he was a disappointment that simply wasn’t the case. Now, I don’t think he’s going to be delivering on that new contract, but the idea that Eberle isn’t a good NHL player is crazy. I think people reacted to the crazy predictions and then it got a little silly.
  2. Okay, Dad. Fine, fine.
  3. He’ll never approach what Hall did 5×5 this season. Actually, Eberle’s 5×5/60 was 2nd in the entire NHL last season behind Malkin. Skilled guy, sweet hands and dynamite in close.
  4. You’re just dying to say ‘but he’s no Hall’ aren’t you? Hall’s a #1 overall, as is Nuge and Yak. Jordan Eberle was chosen 22nd overall in 2008 and hasn’t done one damn thing to disappoint since then. It’s a ridiculous thing to say he’s no Hall. Ridiculous.
  5. So he’s covering his draft bet? Look, this is the last time we talk about this, but here you go. Jordan Eberle was drafted 22nd overall in 2008, and is 2nd in goals and 4th in points among players from that draft. Barring injury, this is going to be one of those draft picks they’re asking Stu MacGregor about when he’s 90. It was a helluva pick.
  6. Can he anchor a line like Hall? Eberle (imo) is similar to Sam Gagner in that his skill set is very high and he could have success as the best player on his line; however, when placed with someone like Hall, it’s fire.
  7. What makes him so good? He’s wicked smart, and he is touched by God in the offensive zone–finding the right spot near the net, finding the puck in a crowd. He is a dynamite passer–this is an underrated skill–and his shot is quick, accurate and deadly. It might become his signature item, despite all the passing ability and puck wizardry. He has eyes in the back of his head, his passes have correct pace, his shot still surprises goaltenders three years in.
  8. What is his outer marker? If we say Eberle will score 20-25 goals and 60-65 points per 82 gp, is that a reasonable line in the sand? I think it is based on his first three seasons. Then his outer marker would probably be last season (76 points) and his low end is likely in the 40′s. I think that’s fair.
  9. What can’t he do? Play center, push the river like Hall, intimidate physically and live up to that contract. Love Eberle, but that’s what he can’t do.
  10. What can he be? Eberle has established that he can score at evens and I do think his PP will be better in many seasons. He’s cerebral, adjusts well. I think he could be a 1line and 1PP option for years and help his team win games. That is just a helluva hockey player.
  11. Why this song? You can’t break the ties that bind. That’s Eberle. He’s always going to be the guy who came in at the beginning and grabbed the spotlight with Hall. They are the beginning–long ago separating themselves from Paajarvi– and they are the center of the cluster. Jordan Eberle is bound to the Oilers, Oilers bound to Eberle. He’s family.
  12. What could go wrong? The contract, of course. It’s already out there like the freaking Hindenburg.

shane

 

The Lowdown with Lowetide hits the air at 10 this morning on Team 1260. Podcast (from Team 1260 website) is usually up within a few minutes of broadcast, and we’ll have more open line again today (great calls btw, thanks!). Scheduled to appear:

  • Bruce McCurdy from the Cult of  Hockey. Bruce will tell us what’s up in the heavens, and we’ll discuss the Oilers off-season, MacT’s epic press conference and some playoffs. 
  • Jim Byers, play by play man for the OKC Barons. Young Oiler prospects like Rajala and Marincin are finishing up their first AHL seasons and I’ll ask Jim how they’re doing in the playoffs. 
  • Harrison Mooney from Puck Daddy and the Vancouver Sun. We’ll talk Canucks, Don Cherry and God knows what else. Mooney is a very interesting guy.
  • Dustin Nielson from Team 1260′s Nielson and Fraser. We’ll talk draft, hockey pools and of course Oilers.

Hope you can tune in!

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86 Responses to "JORDAN EBERLE RE 12-13: THE TIES THAT BIND"

  1. JohnnyRocket says:

    Shave a million off of that deal and I think it sits well. But for all the intangibles that Eberle adds (the friendship of the kids, the community face, the history playing for Canada, the “clutchness”) that million is fine. It is Ben Eager on this club. It may come into play down the road, but it shouldn’t handicap the team.

  2. Racki says:

    I’m probably the only guy that doesn’t worry so much about his contract. It might be too high.. hard to say still though what his top end is. I do think that he is a very good player though, and I am constantly baffled how quickly people turn on a player here (speaking of others, of course).

    Your stats prove that he did have a fairly good season, and that he was likely one of few players that can get the job done at evens (this is something we really need).

    He didn’t have as good a season as many would have thought, but lest we forget, he did also break his finger this year…. it is probably safe to say it affected his ability to get a good shot off.

    He was on pace for 27 goals and 36 assists (63 points), which I think is quite solid for a 3rd year player. Could they have been better, coming off a 76 point season? Definitely.

    However, I think people are becoming far too quickly enamored with the new talent in town, Yakupov (a fine talent in his own right), and tossing Eberle aside too quickly. I also think that Nuge’s offensive struggles this year hampered Eberle too. I think once Nuge is all healed up and playing well with Ebs again, they will catch fire.

    So will Eberle live up to a $6M contract? I don’t know, but it’s definitely too soon to call that. There were enough factors this year to justify a drop in his numbers, so I think people should reserve judgement on that for now.

  3. Hammers says:

    Ebs is a winner and in more ways than one . He also got the look from Renney that helped .. My guess is it’s acombination of ability , character , attitude and smarts on the ice . Wanting “IT” in sports is huge and that seems to be Eberle .

  4. Truth says:

    I don’t see how Eberle’s contract will be a problem. He will perform better next season. As a guy with unbelievable hands and a great shot, the broken finger he was plagued with for a major portion of the season is a serious setback. The fact that he put up the numbers he did should be success.

    There is also the fact that Shawn Horcoff’s cap hit was 9.6% of the teams total when his contract started in ’09-’10. Eberle’s will be 9.3% of the cap hit when it kicks in next year. That number will obviously decrease as the cap goes up every year.

  5. Cobbler says:

    If he plays on the 1 line and gets 60 per then I have no problem with the contract. Puts him in the Briere/Sharp range as an example.

    I think he can cover that on a reasonable basis.

  6. Smarmy says:

    “For some unknown reason, many Oiler fans appear to delight in Jordan Eberle’s fall in shooting percentage (from 18.89 to 12.03).”

    Stats driven sites did make a valid point about Jordan Eberle’s shooting percentage as a way of tempering the regular fans glee and expectations. That was fine.

    However, there is a segment of commenters on stats driven sites that are more driven by using these findings to browbeat regular fans and parroting the talking points of individuals that better understand what they’re talking about. It’s more about being right in a current argument then anything else.

    Eberle is likely to earn his pay cheque but a lot of fans want value contracts where the player is outperforming it. I’m only really concerned with guys that are underperforming their pay scale.

    If Gagner can get 5 million a year at this point I”m more then fine with Eberle’s payscale. I think the Oilers have no issues moving that contract if they had to for some reason.

  7. Henry says:

    I hope and in a way expect that he hits an outer marker of 90 points next year and the contract is not mentioned at all until 2018 after 2 Stanleys are wearing off.

    Drinking in the AM can be fun.

  8. BG14 says:

    A bit early for definitive statements that he can’t live up to the contract, LT, don’t you think? I mean the deal hasn’t even started yet! I believe he finished 39th among forwards in scoring this year (ie a legitimate top line scorer), and his contract (well, the one that starts next year) would rank him 35th among forwards this year. So it’s in the range. I know you’re not one of the people who likes to tear the kid down, I just think you have unrealistic expectations for a 6 million dollar player. I’m not in love with the contract, but even if they waited a year, he’s probably still getting 5.5 this year.

    A quick look at cap geek has a mixed bag of players with similar cap hits:
    Cammalleri, Stastny, Hall, Lucic, Zetterberg, Sedins, Sharp, Skinner, Zajac, Seguin, Toews, Kane and of course Horcoff.

    I think it’s fair to say that he lies somewhere in the mid-range of those players, while his cap is probably closer to the upper. So a slight overpay. Today. But his underlying numbers are improving, as are his shot totals. I wouldn’t write him off as an overpay just yet. Maybe let him earn a dollar of it first ;)

  9. wheatnoil says:

    Eberle scored 37 points this year, which puts him tied for 38th among forwards in the NHL this year. If he was making $6mill this season, he would be tied for the 30th highest cap hit among forwards in the NHL.

    Look, there’s more than just points that go into whether someone is worth the cap hit or not (see: Horcoff, Shawn), but for a scoring forward, I wouldn’t say he’s THAT far off the mark this season and he hasn’t even started his contract yet. If he had 1 more point, he’d be tied for 34th and would be well within the range for his contract.

    Obviously this is a gross simplification and this season is a short one and thus is an anomaly, but if this season is a disappointment, he’s not far off the range. If he produces the way he has this season, the contract won’t be a bargain, but it won’t be an overpay either.

  10. wheatnoil says:

    BG14,

    Or… you know… what you said.

  11. Mark-LW says:

    Off topic for a sec, but check out the second star of the game last night ?!:

    http://www.nhl.com/ice/recap.htm?id=2012030171&navid=sb:recap

    3GA, 0.893

  12. Cobbler says:

    Mark-LW,

    Yikes! Maybe they got him mixed up with Niemi?

  13. FrankenOil says:

    I think the value of Eberle’s contract is that his friendship with Hall brought the franchise player’s contract down. I mean, Hall has shown he’s a franchise talent who could command in the 7.5/yr range and it wouldn’t be out of line. If the numbers were Hall @ 7.5 and Ebs at 4.5, is that that far out of line for a franchise talent (Hall) and a first line winger (Eberle)? The short answer is no. So, in my estimation, we should just get off the contract since the value of Hall’s is mitigated by the (slight) overpay of Eberle.

  14. judgedrude says:

    Truth: the broken finger he was plagued with for a major portion of the season is a serious setback

    Yes the broken finger should be considered. What were his stats before the incident or later in the season as it started to heal? If I recall, Ebs had a bit of a scoring drought around the time of the injury.

  15. russ99 says:

    Three things about Ebs:

    His hand injury had to hamper his numbers this season, and could have to the point where that shooting percentage decline could have been partially caused by it. How many times was Ebs in the clear with the puck, but he coudn’t bury it??

    Ralph ran out the kid line vs. the toughs all year (vs. Renney sheltering them) and only Hall covered numbers-wise. But doing this will make all three of the kids better players. I expect a jump in Eberle’s numbers next year because of it.

    The focus of the organization should be keeping our franchise player, Taylor Hall happy. And Hall is happy playing with Eberle. It’s far, far, far, far too soon to be talking about dumping Ebs due to contract concerns…

  16. maudite says:

    After Anaheim inked those Getzlaf and Perry deals and the Carolina deal for Semin, Ebs at 6 million isn’t that bad (Hall at 6 million is a bargain). Frakenoil and the likes have a good point. I don’t hate the contract but somewhere in this process we have to accept we can’t pay for a team of high priced wingers.

    Hall
    Eberle
    Yak
    Hemsky (yes likely gone)
    Gagner (really would prefer him as a winger and only center on the PP, only way you keep him and likely cover the bet salarywise going forward imo)

    On that list Hall and Yak are the two I would see as untouchable. They are also likely your top line wingers…

    So
    Eberle 6 mil
    Hemsky 5 mil
    Gagner 4.5-5 mil

    Which one brings you the best return when you acknowledge you need that true top D or more grit/skilled winger/center for first two lines?

  17. FrankenOil says:

    maudite,

    I think you could reasonably afford 3 of those wingers (Hall, Yak, Ebs) and then try and flush out the other top-6 winger position with a player on an ELC (See Beau Bennett, Jaden Schwartz, Vladimir Tarasenko, Tyler Toffoli, etc) as the years go on.

  18. cabbiesmacker says:

    Actually I don’t see a whole lot of people comparing Eberle to Hall, and the only complaints about Eberle have come from the nitpickers with nothing better to do.

    Maybe we should talk about the things Eberle can do that Hall CAN’T. It’s about as silly as comparing Jagr and Lemieux, Savard and Larmer, Bossy and Trottier, etc etc etc ad nauseum.

    Here’s a novel thought. Maybe Hall wouldn’t be Hall without Eberle . Eberle is for certain far more cerebral. Eberle also has far better hands. So in the end…who really cares which does what better? Sit back and enjoy the show. There are far bigger issues concerning the Edmonton Oilers.

    And for anyone complaining about Eberle’s contract?…Sam Gagner is likely to be paid within a Mill of. Now that’s disheartening and ugly all rolled into one.

  19. Cobbler says:

    Eberle is not a reasonable trade option. You will not be able to replace those points for less than $5.5M and even then most of those 60+pt wingers will cost you a song. Why trade when you are set at RW?

    There are other better options than moving a young player who has done nothing but show he is a bonafide 1RW with elite skill.

    Move Hemsky, move Gagner, move the pick, but not what is now looking like a sure bet in Eberle.

    If he were somehow “not a good fit” then fine move him. But there is nothing here to suggest that.

    Insanity!

  20. Truth Movement says:

    To echo what’s already been said here – the degree to which Eberle’s contract might be an overpay is less than the degree to which Taylor Hall’s contract is an underpay.

  21. RickDeckard says:

    cabbiesmacker,

    Hall has played excellently with yak and hemsky as well as gagner and horc. Which LWs and Cs has eberle played excellent with? Just rnh and hall?

  22. sliderule says:

    Hall Ebs and Yak will be the scoring wingers for the next decade.

    The other wingers have to be guys that can check and mark someone in own end.MPS is looking like he can do that.

    Gagner can’t play center so he will probably moved with something else to grab a defender.

    The center will have to come from the draft.

    Trade our seventh and two seconds to get Barkov.

    If you have to give up next years first .Do it.

    This will be our last chance to pick this high for a long time.

  23. Woodguy says:

    Smarmy,

    However, there is a segment of commenters on stats driven sites that are more driven by using these findings to browbeat regular fans and parroting the talking points of individuals that better understand what they’re talking about. It’s more about being right in a current argument then anything else.

    That segment of the stats crowd has slowed the acceptance of fancystats in the mainstream mostly because they act like dicks, and nobody wants to agree with a dick.

    Also,

    Wheatnoil and BG14 make a good point.

    He’s scoring against toughs, which is the most coveted skill.

    The question is “is he driving the bus?”

    When you look at his Shot Attempt differential with and without RNH and Hall you see this:

    Eberle with:
    Hall 54.3%
    RNH 51.8%

    Eberle away from:
    Hall 44.5%
    RNH 48.5%

    When paying a guy $6MM/yr, you’d prefer the drop off from Hall not be so steep.

    However his most common LW and C besides 4 and 93 are 89 and 91 so you *know* there is going to be drop off.

    Let’s look at how 89 and 91 do away from 14. Their most common RW was 83 when not playing with 14.

    89 with 14 = 49.8%
    89 away from 14 = 40.7%

    91 with 14 = 46%
    91 away from 14 = 43.2%

    The difference cannot be entirely given to Eberle’s presence. Perhaps they see tougher comp when playing with Eberle, get worse D paiars. etc., but those numbers are stark enough to be very suggestive that Eberle is can drive the bus.

    With the cap *probably * going to $70 in 14/15 and perhaps $82MM by the end of his contract (I’m using under 5% growth and the NHL has been growing at about 7% with no signs of slowing down, so I probably low)), he’ll probably cover the bet as soon as 14/15 vis a vi his cap number.

    Hall is a value contract from day 1 and ridiculous value in 4 years, so next to Hall’s contract, most in the NHL pale.

  24. Beaker says:

    Given the whole broken finger thing it is totally reasonable to think that he might have finished a full season as high as 70+ points. He was on pace for like 63 with the bloody broken finger (imagine if he was healthy the whole season). The guy just didnt stand out visually as WOW as he did last year. I dont care, as long as he produces in that 65 point range then hes fine. I’ll never fault a player for getting too big of a contract, thats on management.

  25. Bar_Qu says:

    One thing I think brings up Eberle’s numbers is having a more complete team. If the Oilers have a set of 12 forwards who can move the puck in the right direction/out chance their opposition, then there is not the same opportunity for other teams to key on him. It was really in the 5×5 that he, and the rest of the team, struggled. If you improve the overall team, you improve his numbers too.

    I point out Iginla as an example of a player who, if surrounded by good players, can put up better counting numbers because he is not the sole focus of attention.

  26. bookje says:

    WG – I think you identified the key factor for confusion regarding Eberle’s contract. Some here are using Hall’s contract as the touchstone to measure Eberle’s by as opposed to looking at similar contracts around the league. LT may be one of those, but I think its just because he hates Eberle.

    LT – Why do you hate Eberle so much? We basically have 1.5 seasons to go on outside of his rookie season. You are making the assumption that his best season in those 1.5 seasons will be his peak and that the other 0.5 will be his average season. It’s possible that 11-12 is an outlier, but its just as likely that with his and his teammates growth in the next year or two that he smashes it and has a few seasons as a ppg player. I would prefer to set expectations in the 65-75 range, but then again, I don’t have an irrational hatred for Jordan Eberle. :)

  27. gogliano says:

    I think WG makes the key point that seems to go overlooked above. NHL revenues have been growing at a regular clip that outpaces inflation by about 5%, but even if we assume a growth rate closer to inflation it still has significant effects on the back half of the deal–we’re still talking about a roughly $9 million dollar rise in the cap by the 6th year.

    Given that we knew that our first year or two of Eberle’s contract would be during a time without cap constraints, a constant rate of pay (i.e., a rate of pay that declines relative to the purchasing power of the dollar and almost surely relative to the cap) makes perfect sense. If Eberle maintains as a 1st line right winger then his contract gets better with time. I suspect his counting stats stay the same but he rounds out his game a little bit–in 2015 I think that is worth $6 million.

    That Hall contract was a gift of the gods. No sense comparing anyone to it but it does help set an outer marker for the other kids.

  28. bookje says:

    Maybe on the call in portion of the show, someone can ask LT why he hates Eberle so much. I don’t know how to use a phone or I would do it.

  29. Jordan says:

    sliderule,

    Disagree strongly Slide.

    While I want dearly to get Barkov in this draft, if there’s one thing I won’t support it’s overpaying for draft pick.

    Even if Barkov is the best player available in the entire draft, there’s no guarantee he develops as expected, that he’s not injured, or that he doesn’t somehow become an orgainzational goat (the Schremp-factor).

    This is a deep draft. This is not a draft to give up anything to move up 3 spots.

    Here’s what we know about the draft:

    1 – Jones, MacKinnon & Druin are the NA Favourites. Likely go 1-2-3.
    2 – There’s a secondary group following them who’s potential is less certain. Different scout include different players in this group. So it’s really hard to predict who will turn out the best of those expected to go here. Including your target Barkov.
    3 – There are expected to be a number of players available in outside the first round who have good odds of playing NHL Hockey.

    Since the Oilers have 3 picks in the top 60, that’s a HUGE opportunity to score 1-3 Average to Impact NHLers in 5 years.

    Your assertion that it would be worthwhile to give up those potential 1-3 players for 1 player you (presumably) think will be better than average NHLer… seems like a bad bet. Over-safe, and giving up value.

    If you look at Button’s list from April… would you really give up the potential of drafting Sean Monahan (7), Ian McCoshen (37) and Gustav Olofsson (58) just to have Barkov?

    Appreciate the desire for great future Oilers – don’t like the way you want to go about it.

  30. Woodguy says:

    cabbiesmacker,

    Here’s a novel thought. Maybe Hall wouldn’t be Hall without Eberle .

    That’s a good point.

    Shot Attempt ratio:

    Hall with Eberle 54.3%
    Hall without Eberle 42.5%

    Hall’s drop off without Eberle is more sever than Eberle’s without Hall.

    Both are much worse away from each other.

    Sum is greater than the parts or team mate ability drop off that severe?

    I think a little from each column is probably close to right.

  31. BlacqueJacque says:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Md1rfj0mhEs

    First-person hockey, with Google glass.

    I seriously want the NHL to mount helmet cams, now.

  32. Jordan says:

    bookje:
    Maybe on the call in portion of the show, someone can ask LT why he hates Eberle so much.I don’t know how to use a phone or I would do it.

    God I hope so – This show could be epic – Maybe someone can ask him why he wants the Oilers to trade Alex Hemsky and Ladi Smith for some grittier players like Zach Kassian and Doug Murray.

    Because Trololololololol…

  33. Cobbler says:

    Woodguy,

    So then the contracts should be:

    Eberle 5.43M
    Hall 4.25M ;)

  34. Woodguy says:

    Jordan,

    God I hope so – This show could be epic – Maybe someone can ask him why he wants the Oilers to trade Alex Hemsky and Ladi Smith for some grittier players like Zach Kassian and Doug Murray.

    Heard Spector on Gregor’s show insisting that SJS has started their own rebuild because they traded Murray and Zeus at the deadline.

    In terms of SA% Turnstile Murray was their worst Dman and HeyZeus was their worst forward.

    The SJS blogs cheered when Wilson “Wilsoned” PIT and CHI (especially PIT…two 2nds for Murray?!?!??! El-Oh-El)

    Mind you, Spector also though that Hodgson and Maholtra filled the same role on VAN and he also picked TOR over BOS in round one.

    Expert opinion.

    25 years of reporting on hockey.

    Lordy.

  35. ashley says:

    Racki:

    However, I think people are becoming far too quickly enamored with the new talent in town, Yakupov…

    I find it refreshing. Until the last 3 weeks of the season, many have been trying to trade him for things like slightly above average defencemen, and underperforming centres. Even before he was drafted, he was traded to just about every team in the league for something or another.

    I don’t understand why he would ever be for sale. How can we say Hall is untouchable, and Yak is tradeable. Perhaps there is something unspoken at play.

  36. Woodguy says:

    ashley,

    Perhaps there is something unspoken at play.

    Eyeglow/60

    Hall and Yak are off the chart in terms of EG/60

    Eberle can drink boiling water and piss ice cubes he’s so cool, and therefore much lower on the eyeglow continuum.

  37. rickithebear says:

    sliderule: Hall Ebs and Yak will be the scoring wingers for the next decade.The other wingers have to be guys that can check and mark someone in own end.MPS is looking like he can do that.Gagner can’t play center so he will probably moved with something else to grab a defender.The center will have to come from the draft.Trade our seventh and two seconds to get Barkov.If you have to give up next years first .Do it.This will be our last chance to pick this high for a long time.

    Button has us picking lindholm at 7 in his mock draft.

    http://www.tsn.ca/draftcentre/feature/?id=93427

    Barkov played in a .55 NHLE league
    he is listed as 6’2″ 205LB
    He had .905 PPG in Sm-ligga which is the same as 1.66 PPG in the CHL.

    Elias Lindholm played in a .77 NHLE league
    He is now listed as 6’0″ 200LB
    He had .625PPG in the SEL in his draft year. That is the same as 1.61PPG in the CHL.

    For reference went back to turn of century to look at U 19 Forwards in SEL.
    All 17 year seasons unless 18 indicated.
    1. Lindholm .625 PPG
    2. Backstrom WSH (18) .56 PPG
    3. Kopitar LAK (18) .43 ppg
    4. MP EDM .35 Pppg
    4. Zinbanegad OTT .35 ppg
    6. A. Steen STL (18) .33 ppg
    7. Ericksson DAL .28 ppg
    8. Kruger CHI .27 ppg

    I am OK with a center who’s numbers indicate a likely 80 point center
    Saving the picks for guys like
    N. Moutrey 6’3″ 210lb
    who projects 42 Even pts in NHL.

  38. ashley says:

    Woodguy,

    I suppose there are the Mem Cup rings. There might be one other guy, or maybe not even one, in hockey today who has won more Memorial Cups than Taylor Hall. So I think he knows something about winning….if there was ever a question.

  39. Jordan says:

    Woodguy:
    Heard Spector on Gregor’s show insisting that SJS has started their own rebuild because they traded Murray and Zeus at the deadline.

    In terms of SA% Turnstile Murray was their worst Dman and HeyZeus was their worst forward.

    The SJS blogs cheered when Wilson “Wilsoned” PIT and CHI (especially PIT…two 2nds for Murray?!?!??! El-Oh-El)

    Mind you, Spector also though that Hodgson and Maholtra filled the same role on VAN and he also picked TOR over BOS in round one.

    Expert opinion.

    25 years of reporting on hockey.

    Lordy.

    I can’t help but wonder with guys like Spector, Brownlee, and others with their antiquated perception biases that they do in fact know that what they are reporting is completely inaccurate, and are in fact trolling the general public, in the hopes that people like you, LT, and the others out there who think about what they read and start trying to find better ways to understand the sports we all spend so much time on.

    Because if they’re not, and the majority of people covering these games are actually the ignorant biased dinosaurs that they sound like when talking about modern hockey…. I mean I want to say it’s terribly sad, but….good god there’s a GIANT business opportunity for someone to provide intelligent hockey analysis.

    Seriously…. considering the job that shaw does for the Oil kings… how hard would it be to get LT and a few others doing the pannel on a couple of trial games? Maybe the pre-season away games?

    I’m sure someone has a basement and a web cam available…..

  40. Jordan says:

    rickithebear,

    Thanks for providing the updated numbers – I could only find early April’s!

  41. supernova says:

    I agree with Racki in that Edmonton turns to quickly on players.

    I really think this is one area Tambo did right.

    He signed hall and Eberle to long term deals, that in 2 or 3 seasons will either look like tremendous value and / or appropriate value.

    The biggest Benifit to those contracts is taking out the unknown as well as the stigma that no one will sign in Edmonton for value or long term.

    These contracts finally give Edmonton a chance to attract other people as a desirable place.

    Now hopefully MacT completes the rest, and Edmonton fans don’t cannibilize the team.

  42. cabbiesmacker says:

    Woodguy:
    cabbiesmacker,

    Here’s a novel thought. Maybe Hall wouldn’t be Hall without Eberle .

    That’s a good point.

    Shot Attempt ratio:

    Hall with Eberle 54.3%
    Hall without Eberle 42.5%

    Hall’s drop off without Eberle is more sever than Eberle’s without Hall.

    Both are much worse away from each other.

    Sum is greater than the parts or team mate ability drop off that severe?

    I think a little from each column is probably close to right.

    Thank you.

    Now I shall go back to practising total derision for those having one bad word to say about Jordan Eberle.

    Let’s aim our barrels at a far bigger issue…..Sam Gagner and a potential $5M per. Someone tell me MacT was just posturing for value at his presser. Please?

  43. Mr DeBakey says:

    Hall’s drop off without Eberle is more sever than Eberle’s without Hall.

    Both are much worse away from each other.

    I’m going to assert, guess & prophesize that Hall’s numbers with Yakupov are better than Hall’s with Eberle next season.
    Also
    I’ve been leaning towards joining Team Lindholm. – I’m closer every day. I’m disappointed to see that ShA monster Schultz wears his number 19.

  44. Racki says:

    ashley: I find it refreshing.Until the last 3 weeks of the season, many have been trying to trade him for things like slightly above average defencemen, and underperforming centres.Even before he was drafted, he was traded to just about every team in the league for something or another.

    I don’t understand why he would ever be for sale.How can we say Hall is untouchable, and Yak is tradeable.Perhaps there is something unspoken at play.

    Just to clarify, I too find it refreshing that people are excited about Yakupov. But I didn’t state my point very clearly… the mentality here is often an “out with the old, in with the new” one. Eberle’s barely been in this league at all, and it seems he’s been quickly tossed aside for the next great thing to come along. I mistakenly probably made it sound like my focus was on people overvaluing Yakupov, but it was meant to be on people undervaluing Eberle because he’s no longer the new kid on the block. Hope that makes sense to what I’m saying.

    I honestly think both Ebs and Yakupov are great talents. I wouldn’t trade any of Nuge, Hall, Eberle, Yakupov and Schultz.

  45. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    RE: Eberle.

    I think (as others have mentioned) the broken finger should be considered in part. His shot looked wonky for a while there.

    Also, I don’t know how much to make of this, but when you combine his OKC totals (via NHLE) his year probably looks even better than clearing LT’s REs.

    Finally, I think a solid million of that contract is directly related to Eberle’s media status. Coming out of the WJCs he’s been a poster boy for TSN for years now (add winning goal of the year a few years ago). He does commercials and is more of a media presence. In part, you are paying for his narrative status on top of his performance status.

    ——–
    Other topics. Yesterday Art (Hi Art!) called me out:

    ART VANDELAY says:
    May 1, 2013 at 3:37 pm
    The CBC panels saying “do something!” to the kids without noticing how they are crushing the league is simply evidence of the disconnect that exists in most commentators’ minds. They can’t see beyond winning and the idea that stars + winning/losing = instant narratives of success/failure.
    23rd = / = “crushing the league”
    But enjoy a summer full of Advanced Corsi and “narratives” and pointing things in the right direction.

    I guess hyperbole is beyond Art. But at any rate, there was a great example of the kind of disconnect in the VAN-SJ game last night by the SJ broadcast.

    At some point in the 3rd they ignored the game and waxed poetic about how great Z. Kassian is and how great that trade was and how bad Hodgson is… The only evidence they mustered was simply that Kassian plays on a great team, while Hodgson plays on a terrible team. That was enough apparently to identify individual performance with success and failure.

    The other narrative that got exploded last night was the “Size!” narrative. I don’t know what Carlyle is thinking but that Toronto team got destroyed by skill/skill with size and all those useless facepunchers on Toronto had no answer.

  46. ashley says:

    Racki,

    Oh for sure. I understood what you were saying, I just used the opportunity to put in my plug for Nail.

    We see the same thing you describe in your post with Gagner. He’s certainly not at the level of Nuge, Hall, Eberle, Yak, but he’s a valuable piece. He gets no love perhaps because of those kids overshadowing, but also because he has been here for 5 years.

    Trading him warrants a valuable return, contract demands pending. Moving from pick 7 to pick 5 is not enough.

  47. bookje says:

    Racki: Eberle’s barely been in this league at all, and it seems he’s been quickly tossed aside for the next great thing to come along.

    Eberle brings it on himself with his bad body language – Its clear in pictures like this that he is ‘just not into it’ anymore. He signed his big contract and now all he wants to do is collect his paycheck and hang around on poles.

  48. dessert1111 says:

    No way Eberle covers his contract? He nearly covers it playing on a team that imploded with a broken finger half the season and with his main set-up man having a ruined shoulder…

    Not to mention, as others said, his points resemble other 6M players. And he doesn’t get shelter anymore. And he increased his shot rates. And Hall ALSO plays worse without Eberle.

    The chance of Eberle not delivering on his contract is probably a lot more like the chance of him over-delivering, imo. The contract hasn’t even started yet…

    I think it’s more likely Hall has consistent injury concerns plaguing him and he not delivering on the numbers.

  49. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    I just remembered that BUF took Grigorenko last year.

    With the 8th pick, I would have to guess they target Nichushkin without the reserve we expect many teams to have (assuming that reserve leaves Nich on the table that long).

  50. Lois Lowe says:

    I think that as long as the Oilers get a centre prospect from this draft, then it has to be considered a win for the organization. It’s a position that is not all that deep within the organization, and if the 7OV takes three years to get to the NHL, then I think where he fits will be much clearer. A Lindholm or a Monahan stepping into a lesser role down the line would set up the tail end of the cluster quite well, and the Oilers should know what they have in Khairia and the others.

    As far as Eberle goes, he’s worth his contract in my mind, he’s not as dynamic a player as Hall or Yak, but he is vital to the success of this team. As it stands, he’s an outshooting, outscoring top 3 forward who has the right balance of competitiveness and discipline.

    MacT talked about how Gags was the type of leader they want in the locker room, and I think Hall, RNH, Yak, and Ebs are very much the same but in different ways. The high praise for Yak tells me that the front office really values commitment and off-ice effort. Everything we heard prior to drafting the 1OVs was about how hard each guy worked to improve his game.

  51. BlacqueJacque says:

    Woodguy:
    cabbiesmacker,

    Here’s a novel thought. Maybe Hall wouldn’t be Hall without Eberle .

    That’s a good point.

    Shot Attempt ratio:

    Hall with Eberle 54.3%
    Hall without Eberle 42.5%

    Hall’s drop off without Eberle is more sever than Eberle’s without Hall.

    I wonder how much of that has to do with Ebs and Nuge being glued together the whole season?

  52. Captain Obvious says:

    The key to the Eberle contract is to remember that it was an early RFA deal. By those standards it is an overpay because they should have been able to get him for less.

    However, if Eberle were an UFA I think he would get a similar contract, so it isn’t a bad contract in absolute terms.

    So, it was a dumb thing for the Oilers to do and they should have been able to squeeze more value out of it, However, now that it is done the contract itself isn’t bad. For instance Eberle still retains significant trade value.

  53. Racki says:

    bookje: Eberle brings it on himself with his bad body language – Its clear in pictures like this that he is ‘just not into it’anymore.He signed his big contract and now all he wants to do is collect his paycheck and hang around on poles.

    I almost snapped after reading the first sentence.. then I clicked the pic and my sarcasm detector finally kicked in. lol

    I love when our fans seriously bring that stuff up about our players though. “Really, Eberle looks sad in that picture, so I think he wants out of Edmonton..” Thank you, Dr Oilers Fan! :P

  54. Amadeus says:

    Can somebody please tell me what Nichuskin’s NHLE is?

    Or direct me on where to find it?

    Please and thank you.

  55. bookje says:

    Amadeus:
    Can somebody please tell me what Nichuskin’s NHLE is?

    Or direct me on where to find it?

    Please and thank you.

    This might help

    http://www.behindthenet.ca/projecting_to_nhl.php

  56. Zipdot says:

    Shane! Don’t go, Shane!!!!

  57. bookje says:

    Just to follow up to my previous post – I don’t know if Gabe has a more recent NHLE page or not, perhaps someone else knows.

  58. gcw_rocks says:

    Oilers would do well with any of Monahan, Lindholm, or Nichuskin, but reading some of the analysis here on Lindholm has Monahan sliding to 3rd of the three on my ranking.

  59. TheOtherJohn says:

    Hall is on a value contract. Could end up being an epic value NHL contract

    Eberle might be on a value contract IF either the cap grows as WG suggests it will or he scores 75-80 points/year routinely. Have no clue how the NHL’s HRR continues growing as there are a slew of ridiculously bad revenue teams in the USA. Ridiculous. Outdorr games have a very real revenue compomnent to it though

    My position is not Eberle is a bad player. Quite to the contrary, he is either a very good 2RW or a good 1RW. I also think he is, or will be, very shortly our 5th best player making $6m for 6 years. I do not think RNH,J Schu or YAK will be likely to take any kind of a discount when someone else in the top 5 is making and taking top $$. Not a lot of teams have 5 guys making $5m or more. And none with 5 guys making $6m per. That can be saved by the Cap rising. Or Eberle raising his performance. He is a real asset to this team, he is dreadfully smart, true sniper (not a 19% sniper though) makes his linemate better and will continue to grow as a player

    Do not love YAK because he is new, ie a new shiny penny. Love him for what he does at 18/19 yrs of age. He is three years younger than Eberle and scored at a very slightly better pace 2 years younger than Eberle’s first year in the show. Expect he will ask for and receive $6m or more at the very earliest opportunity

  60. danny says:

    Eberle is probably the smartest player on the team. It’s no surprise Hall is significantly better with him. Eberle is always doing little things on the cycle to keep the puck deep or make a play. Rarely turns it over, always tosses it into soft parts of the ice to keep the cycle going. I’m always impressed that a kid with 1 on 1 wizardry doesn’t always go for the flashy play, usually taking the smart play instead. he’s not a bus driver in the sense that Hall is, but he drives a bus nonetheless. He’s underrated.

  61. Beaker says:

    Just as a point, if in the pursuit of creating a balanced team we HAVE to trade one of the kids (im not sold on that but lets operate on that assumption) then saying “Eberle is the logical choice to be moved” is not at all “turning on a player”

  62. FastOil says:

    ashley:
    Racki,

    Oh for sure.I understood what you were saying, I just used the opportunity to put in my plug for Nail.

    We see the same thing you describe in your post with Gagner.He’s certainly not at the level of Nuge, Hall, Eberle, Yak, but he’s a valuable piece.He gets no love perhaps because of those kids overshadowing, but also because he has been here for 5 years.

    Trading him warrants a valuable return, contract demands pending.Moving from pick 7 to pick 5 is not enough.

    Gagner gets no love (well some love) from me because he still plays like an 18 year rookie. The fact that Yak grew as much as a player in a stunted year as Gags has in 6 causes me concern.

    He’s a good player but doesn’t fill well one of the two gaping holes – quality 2C which every really good team has. He gets points but still loses the battle. Not OK with me.

    He is weak on the puck and his skates, so I don’t know how he helps being moved to the wing where he has to play on the boards more. Really he is suited to a team that has the physically strong sound players but lacks high offensive skills and can cover him defensively.

    St Louis, Nashville, Dallas, Phoenix, Columbus, etc. Exactly the opposite of the Oilers.

    He definitely warrants a good return because of his skill.

  63. Woodguy says:

    BlacqueJacque: I wonder how much of that has to do with Ebs and Nuge being glued together the whole season?

    I don’t have time to grind out the comparisons right now with TOI and WOWY’s but here’s the page:

    http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/showplayer.php?pid=1342&withagainst=true&season=2012-13&sit=5v5

    Let us know what you see.

  64. Woodguy says:

    All,

    Tyler has beat up his cpu with grinding out the numbers for every shot attempt for and against for every Oiler this year and last year FOR EVERY SINGLE SHIFT THEY TAKE.

    This is unreal info in terms of specific data.

    I suggest reading all the posts.

    There are 4 so far titled “Big Oilers Data”

    Amazing stuff.

    1) http://www.mc79hockey.com/?p=5811

    2) http://www.mc79hockey.com/?p=5828

    3) http://www.mc79hockey.com/?p=5848

    4) http://www.mc79hockey.com/?p=5850

  65. godot10 says:

    In terms of goals and assists this year, Eberle’s boxcar ranking this year amongst forwards, and his salary next year are almost identical. Both in the top 40, in the middle of first line forwards.

    It is a full value contract right now, but it will become value-for-money, and increasingly so almost immediately.

    Hall’s contract is insane value-for-money already.

    Semin got $7 effing million. Corey Perry, $8.5.

    Aside: It is not worth it to trade up for Barkov if Monahan or Lindholm is going to be sitting there at #7. One normally only finds centre prospects of Monahan’s or Lindholm’s quality at #7 is they slide a la Couturier or Grigorenko.

  66. hockeyguy10 says:

    OilersNow ‏@OilersNow 1h Here’s some fine acting by @ebs_14: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bt3ORayq6VA

    Not sure if this was posted yet

  67. spoiler says:

    Woodguy: All,Tyler has beat up his cpu with grinding out the numbers for every shot attempt for and against for every Oiler this year and last year FOR EVERY SINGLE SHIFT THEY TAKE.This is unreal info in terms of specific data.I suggest reading all the posts.There are 4 so far titled “Big Oilers Data”Amazing stuff.1) http://www.mc79hockey.com/?p=58112) http://www.mc79hockey.com/?p=58283) http://www.mc79hockey.com/?p=58484) http://www.mc79hockey.com/?p=5850

    “Punditry abhors a void…”

    Maybe this is a little obvious or self-evident, but I love that line.

  68. godot10 says:

    Beaker:
    Just as a point, if in the pursuit of creating a balanced team we HAVE to trade one of the kids (im not sold on that but lets operate on that assumption) then saying “Eberle is the logical choice to be moved” is not at all “turning on a player”

    You don’t have to trade one of the kids. There are lots of ways for a good GM to find players, especially non-elite ones.

    1) The Oilers can get the 2nd centre at #7 in this years draft. Gagner is a stop gap for a couple of years.
    2) The cap coming down will shake players loose via trade or offer sheet.
    3) There are always hidden gems in the AHL or at the bottom of NHL rosters.
    4) Europe.

    The only thing that makes the suffering of the last 5 years worth enduring is the kids we have now.

    Sure, if someone offers up an equivalent kid like OEL, PK, Pieterangelo (ain’t gonna happen), well then sure. But no competent GM offers up these players. Ours shouldn’t either.

  69. OilClog says:

    Eberle will fulfill his contract unless injury derails it.

    He scores, he makes plays, his hockey iq is level “assassin”

    He’ll always be on the ice with Nuge, Hall, or Yak.. He’s going to get points, lots from his own creations just because of the space the other guys are creating. I believe in a couple years time, if they truly keep these 4guys up front together.. we will be witnessing something truly amazing (hockey standards) happening. Hall and Yak will both be pushing on 50, Ebs 35-40, Nuge 25-30.. It’s going to be hair raising.

  70. Beaker says:

    godot10: You don’t have to trade one of the kids.There are lots of ways for a good GM to find players, especially non-elite ones.

    1) The Oilers can get the 2nd centre at #7 in thisyears draft.Gagner is a stop gap for a couple of years.
    2) The cap coming down will shake players loose via trade or offer sheet.
    3) There are always hidden gems in the AHL or at the bottom of NHL rosters.
    4) Europe.

    The only thing that makes the suffering of the last 5 years worth enduring is the kids we have now.

    Sure, if someone offers up an equivalent kid like OEL, PK, Pieterangelo (ain’t gonna happen), well then sure.But no competent GM offers up these players.Ours shouldn’t either.

    I think you missed my point.

  71. FastOil says:

    godot10:

    Aside: It is not worth it to trade up for Barkov if Monahan or Lindholm is going to be sitting there at #7. One normally only finds centre prospects of Monahan’s or Lindholm’s quality at #7 is they slide a la Couturier or Grigorenko.

    Agreed. I would move up to second or third (if I knew Talon wanted Drouin) for a reasonably extortionate amount.

  72. cc says:

    ….and live up to that contract. Love Eberle, but that’s what he can’t do.

    Been a while LT, but your comment sat the wrong way with me. I thoroughly enjoy your blog but you drive me crazy with your over zealousness with Taylor Hall. Hall is a great player and will be a delight to watch for many years, barring injury. But come on, to suggest Ebs will never live up to his contract. You’re out of line.

    You suggest Ebs will never approach what Hall did this past year, yet I’ll assert Hall may never approach what he did this year. Players have high breakout seasons every now and then. But to attempt to infer they’ll play at that level for many years is never a for sure. (James Neal, Patrick Elias, Marion Gaborik…)

    Hall had a great season and I’m sure he’ll have many more. One thing I think you’ll find if you run the stats. as you like too, is that Hall finally started hitting the net with his opportunities. If you look back at his shots/shot attempts for the previous two seasons you’ll find he missed the net many more times then he hit it. How many more point would they both have had if Hall would have hit the net when Ebs set him up, those first two years??

  73. cc says:

    One thing you can take to the bank on Ebs is that he rarely turns over up the puck without generating a scoring opportunity. Hall on the other hand, with his fun to watch “throw caution to the wind” approach, turns over the puck on average four to five times a game. And some of those turn overs generate scoring opportunities for the opposition.

    I’m not screaming Ebs is better or the reverse. They are both great players and are worthy of their contracts. Nuff said!

  74. BlacqueJacque says:

    Woodguy,

    Wow, not what I expected.

    Nuge with Eberle – 51.8%. Without – 38.9%.
    Eberle with Nuge – 51.8 again, without 48.2%.

    Nuge with Hall 54.6%. Without – 39%.
    Hall with Nuge 54.6 again, and without – 44%.

    Hall and Eberle are pretty clearly providing the offense on the ice, and Nuge is a quite defensive-minded player (in particular this season) so I do think that style plays a role, but it’s hard to deny that Hall and Eberle alike are incredibly good at driving the play. To my eye, Eberle looks much less so than Hall, but then again, his game is far more subtle than Hall’s.

    I am going to stop ragging on Eberle’s contract now.

  75. sliderule says:

    @Jordan and Rickythebear

    I perhaps went a little extreme in my pay but I think all three centers Lindholm Monahan and Barkov will be gone before we pick at seven.
    I think both the swede and Finn project to be scorers but the Finn is one of the youngest players and projects to pay at 220 lbs.
    The big center we are looking for that you can’t get thru trade.
    If they are gone you might as well trade down a couple of spots and take Lazar or Horvat

  76. striatic says:

    interesting that Lindholm actually has a superior NHLE to Monahan.

    i wonder why Monahan gets the edge in the rankings?

    that Monahan has a lager sample size? or that Monahan is a larger player? or that Monahan was on a worse team?

  77. LoDog says:

    Can’t live up to the contract? It hasn’t started yet and he is already right in the ballpark of salary for production.

    The outer marker point is the one that is the most off to me though. The kid scores 34 and then in an “off year” was on pace for 27 now has an outer marker of 20-25 goals?

    Did Eberle run over your dog?

  78. Jordan says:

    hockeyguy10:
    OilersNow ‏@OilersNow 1h Here’s some fine acting by @ebs_14: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bt3ORayq6VA

    Not sure if this was posted yet

    As someone who hadn’t seen this yet – thanks.

  79. cc says:

    FrankenOil,

    Hall is nowhere near worth 7.5 at this point in his career!

  80. Rondo says:

    Draft 2013 guesses

    Col – Jones

    FL – MacKinnon

    TB- Drouin/Barkov

    Nash- Drouin/Barkov

    Car- Nichushkin/Nurse

    Cal- Monahan/Nichushkin/Lindholm

    Edm- Monahan/Nichushkin/Nurse

  81. BlacqueJacque says:

    Rondo,

    Mine would be:

    COL – Jones

    FLA – MacKinnon/Drouin

    TB – MacKinnon/Drouin

    NSH – Barkov/Lindholm

    CAR – Barkov/Lindholm

    CAL – Monahan/Nichushkin

    EDM – Monahan/Nichuskin/Nurse

  82. FastOil says:

    Eberle will get his points but let’s hope he grows in his possession game as well. With the Semin comparison, Semin pushes the river and is nearly a PPG player (and was in his 22 YO season with 3x the PM’s), and is 6’2″ 210.

    I hope Eberle gets as good. Hall, RNH, Eberle, Yak, JS shouldn’t be moved for anything less than a spectacular offer, and even then I wouldn’t trade Hall. Gagner and Pajaarvi would take something special as well.

  83. Lowetide says:

    cc:
    ….and live up to that contract. Love Eberle, but that’s what he can’t do.

    Been a while LT, but your comment sat the wrong way with me.I thoroughly enjoy your blog but you drive me crazy with your over zealousness with Taylor Hall.Hall is a great player and will be a delight to watch for many years, barring injury. But come on, to suggest Ebs will never live up to his contract.You’re out of line.

    You suggest Ebs will never approach what Hall did this past year, yet I’ll assert Hall may never approach what he did this year.Players have high breakout seasons every now and then. But to attempt to infer they’ll play at that level for many years is never a for sure. (James Neal, Patrick Elias, Marion Gaborik…)

    Hall had a great season and I’m sure he’ll have many more.One thing I think you’ll find if you run the stats. as you like too, is that Hall finally started hitting the net with his opportunities.If you look back at his shots/shot attempts for the previous two seasons you’ll find he missed the net many more times then he hit it.How many more point would they both have had if Hall would have hit the net when Ebs set him up, those first two years??

    CC, in my comments I say Eberle DID what Hall did this year–last season! The Eberle 5×5 number last year was 2nd in the NHL! I’m saying he had a brilliant season and that he had a fine one this year.

    I don’t think he’ll earn the $6M a year. I believe the contract was an overpay. We’ll see. Disagreements are a good thing, and it was not my intention to piss people off. That’s my opinon, though.

  84. cc says:

    Lowetide,

    I will enjoy our on going debates.

  85. hags9k says:

    OK we all know you hate him LT! I kid.

    What I think people who favour Hall or Eberle over the other need to remember and give credit for is their friendship and competitiveness. They are pushing each other. Ebs doesn’t have the year he had last year without the off-ice Hall. And Hall doesn’t have the season he just did without the off-ice Eberle. Make all the pajama party and bert and ernie jokes you want but their friendship really does matter.

    I think Eberle has a very good chance to be worth this deal. His contract is interesting though. If he doesn’t live up to it, there is a good chance (not just on him) that this team never gets to the level we think they could. If we are saying 4 years from now that his contract is a good value, then there is a very good chance the team is contending. His seems a bellwether contract for this team as a whole.

  86. BG14 says:

    Lowetide,

    Curious LT, what would Eberle have to do in your eyes to live up to the deal? Better CorsiRel than Hall this year, tougher zone starts, better zone finish, and the WOWY analysis in this thread is eye-popping to say the least. This year, at least, Eberle was the possesion driving king on this team. I see Eberle as a 25-35 goal, 35-45 assist guy going forward. If he does that, and he continues to push the river (despite what you may think, he is already doing that) is that enough?

    PS not trying to attack you, it just seems that you’ve given less explanation here than you usually do and I’m incredibly curious of what your thought process is.

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