MBS VS KP ROUND TWO

One of the things Oiler fans follow closely (more closely now after the #1 trio) is the entry draft. The first round pick is usually the marquee name, but there are gems after #30 and those picks can define a draft. In the case of Kevin Prendergast’s 2002 performance, that’s exactly what happened.

The first round is here. I gave MacGregor the nod (B+) over Prendergast (B) and it’s that close today–5 years after the 2008 entry draft. I’d say it’s about 88% to 84%–not enough clearance really to suggest one scouting group was clearly superior over another, but enough to give an edge to the MBS team (mostly because of Eberle). Hartikainen has had 5 years, and may still make it, but I think we can give credit for uncovering a useful prospect who pushed toward the NHL at this point in time. I’m satisfied keeping both grades as they were one year ago.

I think 5 years is a good amount of time to evaluate, so you may be asking why I’m doing 2002 versus 2009 today. The answer goes like this: although we have questions that remain about the 2009 entry draft, there’s enough evidence for us to “make the call” and then spending season #5 monitoring progress. If Anton Lander or Toni Rajala progress beyond where they are today, next year at this time we can adjust the grade before putting it in the books.

We begin.

KEVIN PRENDERGAST 2002

  1. Success in the first 100 selections of each draft (1st round) A swing and a miss here. Jesse Niinimaki was an enormous reach, one of the biggest in Oiler draft history (and baby that’s saying something). Niinimaki did show a lot of promise until a (Guy Flaming described it as “devastating”) severe shoulder injury 10 games into the 2003-04 season ended his year. Niinimaki was never really a threat to play in the NHL, in fact he played in only 24 AHL games, scoring 1 goal. My strongest memory of Niinimaki was his Hockey News ranking (#84) compared to his final draft number (#15)–if you’re going to make that reach, you better be right. Niinimaki is one of 4 2002 first round selections who never played an NHL game.
  2. Success in the first 100 selections of each draft (2nd round) Prendergast and crew clearly felt they could do big business in 2002′s 2nd round. How do I know? Kevin Lowe traded a good NHL player (Jochen Hecht) for two picks–#31 (Jeff Deslauriers) and #36 (Jarret Stoll). I’m not going to get into the issue of value for the player, or nicking the picks because it cost a good NHL player. That’s another conversation. We’re evaluating the draft board, KP’s job was to get good players. And he did. In the second round of the 2002 NHL draft, Prendergast selected Jarret Stoll (641 NHL games and counting), Matt Greene (466 NHL games and counting) and Jeff Deslauriers (62 NHL game and counting). That’s a great round–two NHL regulars over many seasons and a goalie who was good enough to get a long look and could still hang out at the shallow end of the NHL goalie pool. Would it have been as good without the Hecht trade? No. However, as we progress through this study, the shoe will be on the other foot (2010 the next example) so I think it’s wise to acknowledge Hecht’s importance, but to evaluate the draft based on the pure quality of the selections.
  3. Success in the first 100 selections of each draft (3rd round): Brock Radunske is very famous now, but did not have a long North American pro career. Chosen 79th overall, he played only 28 AHL games before becoming a legend in his time halfway around the world. I’ll always cheer for him, but can’t give the KP camp any counting points in this evaluation.
  4. Success in what Devellano calls “projecting”: Jim Devallano: ‘We’re trying to determine if the player can get to the next level, that’s the real job. Most people can sit and watch a game and tell you who the best player on the ice is, but the good scout will be able to judge whether or not  a player can go a step or two higher. We in the hockey business call it projecting.” I can’t give huge credit for Stoll here, because he was a draft re-entry and the Oilers knew what they were getting–in fact he went right to the AHL and established himself as an NHL prospect and actually played in the NHL the season he was drafted. I think we can give some credit for Greene; the club saw him good for the Green Bay Gamblers and then followed his progress through NCAA and eventually to pro. Although he’s never been a consistent 20-minutes a night defender, Greene is most certainly an NHL player.
  5. Success in addressing team needs beyond the first round. Huge marks for the KP team here. They added a useful center who was close to NHL ready, picked up a big defensemen with good foot speed (always useful) and the top ranked NA goaltending prospect to boot. I’d say it was an extremely effective draft when viewed through this lens.

The second KP draft did not include a Hemsky-calibre big fly, but did produce an excellent 2-line center and a top 6 defender. The first round was an addled moment, and the picks beyond #100 (Ivan Koltsov, Jonas Almtorp, the illegal Robin Kovar, Glenn Fisher, Mikko Luomo, JF Dufort, Patrick Murphy, Dwight Helminen, Tomas Micka, Fredrik Johansson) produced very little (a total of 30 games, 3 for Luoma and the rest for Mighty Dwight). I don’t think there’s any reason to punish the scouting staff for a barren draft after pick #100, but it is worth noting that all 10 selections failed to make the grade. I did knock the grade down a significant amount because of the Niinimaki reach, however. Whatever the sins of a draft team, fanning in the first round should be met with release from employment. It it not forgivable.

This mark reflects: the lack of a top end talent like Hemsky; the poor first round decision and the solid second round.

Kevin Prendergast Grade: C+ (69%)

 

STU MACGREGOR 2009

  1. Success in the first 100 selections of each draft (1st round) The Magnus Paajarvi selection looked like a questionable ticket a year ago, but the young man has settled in and enjoyed a solid third year in North America. Wooguy’s excellent piece and the recent RE discussion reflect good arrows, to the point we can suggest he’ll be a productive top 9F next season and into the future. He ranks 11th in GP and points among his draft class, despite some struggles and time in the minors. Although he may not cover a #10 overall bet, I’m going to give the MacGregor group a full share of points for Paajarvi. We can review next spring.
  2. Success in the first 100 selections of each draft (2nd round): Anton Lander has played in the NHL, but I don’t think the scouting staff should get extra credit for it–the organization crushed on his improved footspeed and made a poor decision. On the other hand, he’s shown some glimpses of being able to put together enough offense (I think we see he has some value as a PK man already) and he could end up being a useful 4line player. That doesn’t really cover the bet, Lander at this point is a net negative in my opinion. There was value in that 2009 second round, it’s not certain the Oilers got enough of it. We’ll wait a year, but right now it’s a down arrow in terms of value. Not a Niinimaki miss, but not a full glass of Falcon either.
  3. Success in the first 100 selections of each draft (3rd round):  A noxious third round and no hope of recovery. In 2008, the MBS group didn’t have a third round pick, but in 2009 they spent them on #71 Troy Hesketh, #82 Cameron Abney and (early 4th) #99 Kyle Bigos. That’s a miserable payback, and what’s more two of these selections were derailed soonafter the draft (Bigos remains a prospect of interest). I don’t want to overstate this–these are picks between 70 and 100–and the three misses here are not as criminal as the Niinimaki miss. Overall, however, it represents a missed opportunity on a pretty significant level. I’m hopeful MacT will move these types of picks back to the 4th and 5th rounds.
  4. Success in what Devellano calls “projecting”: Jim Devallano: ‘We’re trying to determine if the player can get to the next level, that’s the real job. Most people can sit and watch a game and tell you who the best player on the ice is, but the good scout will be able to judge whether or not  a player can go a step or two higher. We in the hockey business call it projecting.”  I think they did a good job in projecting Paajarvi beyond his role before the draft, he had some offensive question marks but there was little doubt he’d play somewhere in the lineup once he adjusted to North American ice. I’m not able to give credit for the Lander selection, they clearly projected him to be a more offensive player and he hasn’t delivered.
  5. Success in addressing team needs beyond the first round. Lander was a pick clearly made to address need, but the Oilers are still looking for centermen, and on a team with Nuge and Gagner they might not be looking so hard if Lander was more able offensively. I think we’re talking less ’2-way’ and more ‘shutdown’ and 4line C’s are more prevalant and less costly. I’ll mention the late picks (Toni Rajala, Olivier Roy) here and they could improve the final rating of this draft (both have shown flashes of brilliance this season). Still, there’s not enough proof currently to suggest they’ll peak out beyond AHL level during their time in the organization.

The second MBS draft did not include a big fly like Jordan Eberle, but did produce a significant talent in Magnus Paajarvi. Although his career progression this far isn’t at “Stoll level” it’s certainly plausible he’ll occupy a similar spot in the lineup as his NHL career evolves.* I think they’re comparable talents.  The draft after Paajarvi isn’t much, not so far and we’re 4 years into the debate. Lander’s outer marker is probably a 4th line C who can PK and post 15-20 points a year. Does that have value? Sure, but it doesn’t cover #40 overall and there are lots of those guys available for just money every summer.

This mark reflects: the lack of a top end talent like Eberle, the Paajarvi first round selection (which I believe covers/will cover the bet) and the picks after Lander and their lack of value.

Stu MacGregor Grade: C (66%)

*Four years after his draft, Paajarvi’s NHL totals (163, 26-32-58) aren’t close to Stoll’s (220, 53-84-137) but it’s also true that Stoll was 20 on his draft day. Another way to look at it is this: Paajarvi’s totals at age 21 (163, 26-32-58) compare well to Stoll at the same age (72, 10-12-22). I don’t believe Paajarvi will have a 68-point season anytime soon, but Stoll had only one of those in his career.

  • I wanted to make a quick note in regard to the difference between these two seasons and the previous look at the 2001/2008 draft. I put a high value on getting top flight players like Hemsky and Eberle–there are none in either draft (that I can see, at this time).
  • One more thing on the Hecht trade/change in draft quality. Although I did not reference it above, the Oilers added picks in 2009 too, although much later in the draft. Edmonton traded Kyle Brodziak and a 6th rder (Darcy Kuemper) to Minnesota for the picks that turned into Kyle Bigos and Olivier Roy.
  • In doing this look at the two drafts, I was surprised to see just how much Matt Greene has fallen down the Kings depth chart. He was playing 16.5 minutes at evens and another three on the PK when he went over to LA, but his playing time has been steadily fading. I’m not sure if it’s the tremendous LAK depth, performance or injury, but this TOI erosion has been going on for some time.
  • Because of the above point, and Lander’s ‘in limbo’ status, I wanted to at least make a note about those two players. Should the gap between them (NHL regular, NHL fringe player) close, then it’s likely the overall grade will change when we discuss it next spring.

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57 Responses to "MBS VS KP ROUND TWO"

  1. Rebilled says:

    Curious if you think the Oilers will swing a deal with Sather for Richards? If they buy him out and we give them our #7? Is that legal?

  2. Lowetide says:

    Rebilled:
    Curious if you think the Oilers will swing a deal with Sather for Richards? If they buy him out and we give them our #7? Is that legal?

    Richards? No, the Rangers can’t buy him out and then trade him. If the Oilersare interested, my guess is NYR would be delighted to send his cap hit to them and the cost would be far less than #7 overall.

  3. admiralmark says:

    Hey Allan… How many of the Scouts have changed between Pendergast and MacGregor taking over? Also, I know its somewhat of a collaboration on picks but I wonder if the poor bets have come in more from the WHL/OHL/QMJHL the European Leagues or the College ranks?

    Also will you be doing an article regarding the Pro scouting Dept? In terms of who heads it now and what their track record and/or past Pro Scouting track records. I really feel that this is an area in the Oilers that might be a great detriment to the team moving forward and also sustaining the winning when the winning begins.

  4. Kitchener says:

    What does MBS stand for?

  5. stevezie says:

    In fairness to the Lander pick there aren\t a lot of obvious choices after him either. I guess in hindsight what they should have done is sold the farm to trade up.

    Pre-concussion I thought Stoll was the most underrated player on the Oilers (and their best centre the year he got hurt). He never regained his form here, but I saw him good enough to wonder what his stats would look like if he wasn’t playing behind Richards and Kopitar.

  6. Lowetide says:

    Leading up to the 2011 draft, Oilers published their scout list

    Bill Dandy: QMJHL
    Brad Davis: OHL, tier 2 leagues in Q and O
    Kent Hawley: OHL, QMJHL, tier 2 leagues in Q and O
    Bob Brown: WHL, tier 2 leagues, USHL
    Jim Crosson: WHL, tier 2 leagues, USHL
    Scott Harlow: NCAA and American junior leagues (east coast)
    Frank Musil: Europe
    Pelle Eklund: Europe
    Robert Nordmark: Europe
    Stu MacGregor: WHL, cross checks the world

    Don’t know of changes since then.

  7. Lowetide says:

    Kitchener:
    What does MBS stand for?

    Magnificent Bastard.

  8. Captain Happy says:

    I’m not sure how you can properly assess any draft without reference to who was left on the board AFTER a particular selection was made.

    For example, Tyler Myers looks like a decent enough pick at #12 in the 2008 draft until you notice that Erik Karlsson was selected 3 spots later.

    Does Buffalo get nicked for that?

    If so, how much do you nick the Oilers for taking Paajarvi at #10 while Kulikov, Leddy, Johansson and O’Reilly were still available.

    It’s all hindsight, of course, but any assessment of a draft year is nothing but hindsight.

  9. pboy says:

    Lowetide: Richards? No, the Rangers can’t buy him out and then trade him. If the Oilersare interested, my guess is NYR would be delighted to send his cap hit to them and the cost would be far less than #7 overall.

    No kidding. If the Oilers were willing to take Richards and that obscene contract it would be the Rangers who would throwing in a pick.

  10. coolwasabi says:

    This post reminds me that Stoll, Brodzniak, and Greene were turned into Ryan Whitney (who’s giving the the organization a middle finger as he’s hobbling out the door).

  11. gd says:

    As bad as the Niinimaki pick was, that has to be the worse 1st round of the 2000s. Even most of the good picks are kind of mediocre (Whitney, Nystrom, Ballard, Eager). It makes me wonder that Nash and Bouwmeester have suffered from being the best of a bad year and if they were fifth or sixth picks overall, everybody would love them. Getting two multi-Stanley cup final regulars in that second round is great drafting, so this one definitely goes to KP.

    (Don’t worry there is almost no way to put a positive spin on 2003)

  12. Lowetide says:

    gd:
    As bad as the Niinimaki pick was, that has to be the worse 1st round of the 2000s. Even most of the good picks are kind of mediocre (Whitney, Nystrom, Ballard, Eager). It makes me wonder that Nash and Bouwmeester have suffered from being the best of a bad year and if they were fifth or sixth picks overall, everybody would love them. Getting two multi-Stanley cup final regulars in that second round is great drafting, so this one definitely goes to KP.

    (Don’t worry there is almost no way to put a positive spin on 2003)

    Yeah, I agree the KP 2002 was a better draft than the 2009 MBS. I was a little disappointed though when looking at Matt Greene. For some reason, I thought he was a bigger player on these Kings teams.

  13. TheOtherJohn says:

    LT

    Interesting read. Your conclusion re MBS is where I have been at for a year or so. Ok in first round and very few later picks doing squat. Do not know if its development or if its the amateur scouting department missing on the picks. Perfect example is Musil. Solid player with a single noticeable flaw: footspeed. Potentially big flaw. We should know by Christmas whether it is insurmountable.

    Do know from your interviews with Todd Nelson that Tuebert’s problem is thinking the game at AHL level. I.e. he can’t think the game at an AHL speed. That, thats fatal!! Big body, good skater. Realize now why LAK made him available and why we were not offered Martinez, Muzzyn or Voynov.

  14. HeavySig says:

    Magnus arrived to great fanfare (http://lowetide.ca/blog/2009/11/1-prospect-magnus-paajarvi-svensson.html), fell from grace with Renney and has worked his way back into the conversation with a smile on his face and nothing but hard work. How can we not like the guy? I still think he will continue to improve and carve out a useful role, albeit not the one that we had originally thought for him.

    When MPS fell to the Oilers at 10th overall, most people (myself included) thought it was a lucky break for them. Here was guy rated much higher ( Scouting services; ISS: 4 overall, CSB: 2-European skater, Media; TSN: 7, THN: 7) and was considered to have first line potential.

    It would be interesting hearing why the handful of teams ahead of Edmonton passed on Magnus, though.

  15. Scotty LaDouche says:

    Hey look, the Sedins won something!!

  16. Captain Happy says:

    Lowetide: Yeah, I agree the KP 2002 was a better draft than the 2009 MBS. I was a little disappointed though when looking at Matt Greene. For some reason, I thought he was a bigger player on these Kings teams.

    Greene missed 42 of 48 games with a back injury and I’m sure that has been a factor in his ice time this playoff season.

    Last season, he averaged 16:05/G in the playoffs.

    That LA went out and acquired Regher and Ellerby to replace Mitchell and Greene just means neither was being counted on to play in the playoffs.

    I would also imagine that the emergence of Muzzin pushed Greene down the depth chart.

    Not a bad problem to have for LA.

  17. Captain Happy says:

    Scotty LaDouche:
    Hey look, the Sedins won something!!

    You mean other than their 2006 Olympic gold medals?

  18. PaperDesigner says:

    I think you’re over-reacting to a short period of failure with Lander. Basically, Lander is the new Petry.

    If Lander hadn’t gotten his game noticeably back on track at a pro level this year, I would be worried. But considering that he’s had success in the second half, it seems easy to attribute his problems to being elevated to the NHL too early, and regaining confidence mid-way through the year this year.

    The thing about Lander is, with the second half of the season this year and his years in Sweden put together, you have a young man that has already found some success, offensively too, with two different pro leagues. How you can look at Lander, and see failure, while you look at Pitlick, who has had a handful of good games and see success, is beyond me. Track record as a whole is the most important thing, and I think Lander’s track record speaks of a guy who will evolve into a two-way, third line centre somewhere in his mid-twenties.

  19. leadfarmer says:

    Captain Happy,

    So Philly is smart for picking Couturier who fell and Edmonton is dumb for picking Paajarvi who fell. Draft is a crap shoot .

    LT can you explain to me why it has been referenced many times here that the Lubo for Stoll and Greene was a bad trade. And I’ve seen it mentioned before the Whitney debacle. A top pairing defenseman for a 3rd line center and bottom pairing defenseman is a great trade, one that should be repeated. You just have to fill in the spots that you left open.

    In these playoffs you’ll notice how fast the defenseman move the puck, even stay at home guys. If you cant you sit.

  20. RexLibris says:

    Really enjoying this series, LT.

    You may be interested to know, I ran down the MBS picks based on region, in order to give credit to some of the individual scouts. I’ve got an article for ON that should be up sometime in the next few days.

    Suffice to say, Frank Musil and his group are doing some excellent work considering the picks they’ve been given. The WHL/NCAA squad (including MacGregor) are in Petry/Smid territory, good but need to have their ice time shaved back a bit.

  21. Scotty LaDouche says:

    Captain Happy,

    No, I just mean in general.

  22. Scotty LaDouche says:

    The gold helmet/girls soccer team bunny hopping made me throw up a little in my mouth.

  23. Lowetide says:

    PaperDesigner:
    I think you’re over-reacting to a short period of failure with Lander. Basically, Lander is the new Petry.

    If Lander hadn’t gotten his game noticeably back on track at a pro level this year, I would be worried. But considering that he’s had success in the second half, it seems easy to attribute his problems to being elevated to the NHL too early, and regaining confidence mid-way through the year this year.

    The thing about Lander is, with the second half of the season this year and his years in Sweden put together, you have a young man that has already found some success, offensively too, with two different pro leagues. How you can look at Lander, and see failure, while you look at Pitlick, who has had a handful of good games and see success, is beyond me. Track record as a whole is the most important thing, and I think Lander’s track record speaks of a guy who will evolve into a two-way, third line centre somewhere in his mid-twenties.

    Lander has not had offensive success in North America at any time. He has 7 points in 67 NHL games, and 25 AHL points in 61 games–an NHLE of about 15 points for 82 games. I think he has shown some offensive ability lately–and maybe he shows more next season.

    But if we’re 80% of the way through the evaluation, and it looks like a duck….

  24. Lowetide says:

    leadfarmer:
    Captain Happy,

    So Philly is smart for picking Couturier who fell and Edmonton is dumb for picking Paajarvi who fell.Draft is a crap shoot .

    LT can you explain to me why it has been referenced many times here that the Lubo for Stoll and Greene was a bad trade. And I’ve seen it mentioned before the Whitney debacle. A top pairing defenseman for a 3rd line center and bottom pairing defenseman is a great trade, one that should be repeated.You just have to fill in the spots that you left open.

    In these playoffs you’ll notice how fast the defenseman move the puck, even stay at home guys.If you cant you sit.

    I was thrilled with the Lubo trade, and depressed when he left.

  25. Lowetide says:

    RexLibris:
    Really enjoying this series, LT.

    You may be interested to know, I ran down the MBS picks based on region, in order to give credit to some of the individual scouts. I’ve got an article for ON that should be up sometime in the next few days.

    Suffice to say, Frank Musil and his group are doing some excellentwork considering the picks they’ve been given. The WHL/NCAA squad (including MacGregor) are in Petry/Smid territory, good but need to have their ice time shaved back a bit.

    Looking forward to it

  26. speeds says:

    Captain Happy:
    I’m not sure how you can properly assess any draft without reference to who was left on the board AFTER a particular selection was made.

    For example, Tyler Myers looks like a decent enough pick at #12 in the 2008 draft until you notice that Erik Karlsson was selected 3 spots later.

    Does Buffalo get nicked for that?

    If so, how much do you nick the Oilers for taking Paajarvi at #10 while Kulikov, Leddy, Johansson and O’Reilly were still available.

    It’s all hindsight, of course, but any assessment of a draft year is nothing but hindsight.

    I don’t know that any assessment is nothing but hindsight. Many have criticized certain selections pretty quickly after the players were drafted, that doesn’t really strike me as hindsight in the same way as you’re indicating.

  27. Captain Happy says:

    leadfarmer,

    15 wrongs don’t make a right.

    If you’re going to give credit for picking Eberle then you have to dock marks when there are a reasonably large number of players who, at this point, appear to be superior to Paajarvi who were picked later.

    If you disregard performance and just look at NHL GP in that draft (which is unfair to defensemen and goalies) you get the following:

    Tavares – 291

    Duchene – 266

    O’Reilly 265

    Kane – 261

    Hedman -258

    Kulikov – 232

    Clifford – 205

    Johansson – 183

    OEL -178

    Leddy – 176

    Paajarvi – 163

    Magnus doesn’t crack the top 10 by that measure and there are several other players like Kadri, Cowen, Ellis, Rundblad, and Silfverberg who are now making a real push despite taking a slower path to the NHL.

    I expect that, once we get to the 5 year mark on the 2009 draft, Paajarvi may not be in the top 20.

  28. leadfarmer says:

    Lowetide,

    I dont know if Sather will be able to even give that contract away, but somehow someone always rescues him

  29. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Not to fuss… but you’ve got Stu 2002 up there.

    On Lander… I wonder if he doesn’t deserve an extra year on the whole “5 year wait and see” rule based on the team jerking around his development?

    Also… aren’t we a year short here? Did I miss something or are we only 4 years out from 2009?

    Finally… a general question for LT:

    I’ve been thinking about that Deslauriers pick and your rule about 200 NHL games as the bar for “NHL Player” and wondering whether we ought to adjust that bar for position… Maybe weighted for wingers, centers, D and goalies?

    I think Magnus shows that it is pretty easy for a winger (esp. on a basement team with a hard on for rushing players) to rack up GP without crossing the bonafide “NHL Player” mark… whereas it is a lot harder for a D or a goalie to find NHL work.

    Have you ever offered a more complex series of lines in the sand? If not, what do you think they would be?

  30. Lowetide says:

    DSF: You are batshit crazy. I expect you and I drink the same amount on long weekends. Why do I make so much sense and you make so little? :-)

    Rom:

    1. 5-year thing is explained right at the top. We’ll re-look at it briefly next spring as a preamble (is there a hyphen in pre-amble? Hmmm. Both look weird) to the 2003 v 2010 edition.

    2. I do think G games played is unfair, we should cut it in half. Say 100 games. I think that’s fair. What do you think? Maybe 150 for blue? Interesting idea.

  31. Lowetide says:

    leadfarmer:
    Lowetide,

    I dont know if Sather will be able to even give that contract away, but somehow someone always rescues him

    I know. Glen and Lou. I can’t get mad at Glen though.

  32. MrSmitty says:

    Does DSF go by a different handle now? I can’t find his post Lowetide.

  33. Ducey says:

    Although I did not reference it above, the Oilers added picks in 2009 too, although much later in the draft. Edmonton traded Kyle Brodziak and a 6th rder (Darcy Kuemper) to Minnesota for the picks that turned into Kyle Bigos and Olivier Roy.

    Wow, thats a bad trade. Brodziak speaks for himself but Kuemper played 6 NHL games this year and put up a .916 save %. He is one of the leaders in the AHL playoffs and could be the Wild’s backup next year.

    Sigh

  34. Lowetide says:

    MrSmitty:
    Does DSF go by a different handle now?I can’t find his post Lowetide.

    Captain Happy, Shape Shifter, Geddy Lee, Opus. :-) Actually Captain Happy.

  35. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Lowetide: Rom:
    1. 5-year thing is explained right at the top. We’ll re-look at it briefly next spring as a preamble (is there a hyphen in pre-amble? Hmmm. Both look weird) to the 2003 v 2010 edition.
    2. I do think G games played is unfair, we should cut it in half. Say 100 games. I think that’s fair. What do you think? Maybe 150 for blue? Interesting idea.

    Ha! of course it’s right there… sorry, I read this long article, your other one from last year and I’m bidding on jazz albums on ebay at the same time… I’m a little confused at the moment.

    “Preamble” I believe is correct… however, as I recall, hyphens in the case of prefixes can often be more a matter of “style” than some hard and fast rule…

    The most famous preamble… no doubt:

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Preamble_to_the_United_States_Constitution

    For you grammarians out there… here’s a very funny piece by a really solid writer on “ending a sentence with a preposition”

    http://www.newrepublic.com/article/113187/grumpy-grammarian-dangling-preposition-myth#

    back to hockey…

    that seems fair LT. how about:

    100 GPs for a Goalie; 150 for a D; 200 for a Centre… maybe 225 for a Winger?

  36. Lowetide says:

    Ducey:
    Although I did not reference it above, the Oilers added picks in 2009 too, although much later in the draft. Edmonton traded Kyle Brodziak and a 6th rder (Darcy Kuemper) to Minnesota for the picks that turned into Kyle Bigos and Olivier Roy.

    Wow, thats a bad trade.Brodziak speaks for himself but Kuemper played 6 NHL games this year and put up a .916 save %.He is one of the leaders in the AHL playoffs and could be the Wild’s backup next year.

    Sigh

    AND they did it on a day they NEEDED centermen!!!! Check out the comments here:

    http://lowetide.ca/blog/2009/06/oilers-trade-brodziak.html

  37. Captain Happy says:

    Lowetide: Captain Happy, Shape Shifter, Geddy Lee, Opus. Actually Captain Happy.

    Banana Joe!

  38. frenchfrog says:

    Ranking players from the draft solely on games played? God, can’t you just ban DSF?

  39. PaperDesigner says:

    Lowetide: Lander has not had offensive success in North America at any time. He has 7 points in 67 NHL games, and 25 AHL points in 61 games–an NHLE of about 15 points for 82 games. I think he has shown some offensive ability lately–and maybe he shows more next season.

    But if we’re 80% of the way through the evaluation, and it looks like a duck….

    Except the most obvious narrative seems to fit with the facts, being that the kid was pushed confidence, and eventually regained it, and started playing at a higher level.

    There were also reports that Lander was playing better, when put with Paajarvi and Hartikainen, and the results took a little while to come.

    The fact remains that Lander had success in a very good pro league at a very young age, couldn’t make the jump to the NHL right away, and seemed to regain form the following season, though not all at once.

    A couple of successful pro seasons, plus improved results lately, seem to suggest that Lander’s arrival has been delayed rather than derailed.

    I also think that the type of player he is, the two-way, third line centre, simply has a longer development track. I think those guys often take longer to settle in. I don’t know if their curve is significantly different than non-elite defencemen.

  40. Lowetide says:

    PaperDesigner: Except the most obvious narrative seems to fit with the facts, being that the kid was pushed confidence, and eventually regained it, and started playing at a higher level.

    There were also reports that Lander was playing better, when put with Paajarvi and Hartikainen, and the results took a little while to come.

    The fact remains that Lander had success in a very good pro league at a very young age, couldn’t make the jump to the NHL right away, and seemed to regain form the following season, though not all at once.

    A couple of successful pro seasons, plus improved results lately, seem to suggest that Lander’s arrival has been delayed rather than derailed.

    I also think that the type of player he is, the two-way, third line centre, simply has a longer development track. I think those guys often take longer to settle in. I don’t know if their curve is significantly different than non-elite defencemen.

    I certainly hope that’s true, and want it to be true. I don’t think we saw enough evidence of it being true. We have another season ahead, hope the organization makes the right call on Lander’s role (and in the correct city).

  41. sliderule says:

    I think you rate your scouting by measuring how they do against the rest of the NHL.

    It’s been shown that of players taken in first round 65per cent play over 200 games the measurement of success.Under Stu the oilers will be up to 100 percent unless there is an injury.When you are picking near the top that gets a lot easier.

    On the other hand KP in the period 2001 to 2006 had his first picks at 40 per cent.This probably got him fired as his later picks were closer to NHL average.

    The second round has a success rate of about 30 percent at least for period since 2001.

    KP has a success rate in the second round close to this average in period 2001 to 2006.

    Since Stu took over the only player that has performed above his average in this round is Marcinin
    Some would say Lander will make it but he has not made the jump other than being force fed into NHL in his first season
    The oilers have gone on to pick Pitlick Musil and Moroz near the top of second round.I don’t think any observer could say they are showing any positive arrows.The chances of them getting 200 games seems remote to me.As these picks were almost bottom first rounders it’s particularly galling.

    Some will say it’s too early to rate Stu poorly for these picks but the arrows are real bad.

    I would hope MacT doesn’t accept the poor early results from the scouts and demand that they perform above NHL averages for picks in each round rather than saying oh well not that many make it anyway so alls good.

  42. Hammers says:

    To be honest I don’t get the 200 game idea either .. We all know Goalies & “D” take longer to hit there stride . I also feel Magnus Was screwed around by Renney / Tambo and his development has come from Nelson not here in Oil country . Your idea has merit But . There is allways a but . Development of players has a lot of luck involved as well . It didn’t hurt Eberle going back plus having games in Okl . The Tambo years may take some time to digest but frankly I must blame Mr. Lowe mainly for hiring Tambo not his own work . My guess is what teams wiill want in trades include Magnus and McT needs to recognize this as I feel the guy will have an NHL career , maybe not here BUT .

  43. Captain Happy says:

    frenchfrog:
    Ranking players from the draft solely on games played? God, can’t you just ban DSF?

    Over an extended period of time, it’s an excellent way to rank players.

    After 5 years, if a player hasn’t accumulated a significant number of NHL games played, there must be a reason for that (excepting injury).

    Of course, you also need to consider the context of the team that any individual player is playing for.

    For example, how many GP do you think Paajarvi would have under his belt if he had been drafted by a good hockey team like Chicago, Pittsburgh or Detroit.

    I would wager the number would be very close to zero.

    The Oilers are notorious for feeding their young players ice time which only serves to encourage their fans to over value their young players in relation to the young players on other teams.

    Remember when everyone thought Gagner, Nilsson and Cogliano were going to lead the Oilers to the Promised Land?

    Most of those players are gone for virtually nothing but the mind set of the team’s fans hasn’t changed much.

  44. Smarmy says:

    Go Blades Go!

    Haven’t been impressed with Drouin in this tourney.

  45. Rondo says:

    Seth Jones is 195 days older than Nikita Zadorov.

  46. MrEd says:

    That was a 50/50 opportunity for the puck wasn’t it? That Spezza has to take that hit bugs me. Maybe i say it because i played. I made that hit that Adams did and knew what i was doing.

    *shudder*

  47. fuzzy muppet says:

    I’m willing to bet money that Neil, even if he separated his shoulder, will play again this game. (unless someone scores)

  48. fuzzy muppet says:

    Karlsson doesn’t look close to the same player he was before the injury

  49. "Steve Smith" says:

    Lowetide: AND they did it on a day they NEEDED centermen!!!! Check out the comments here:

    http://lowetide.ca/blog/2009/06/oilers-trade-brodziak.html

    Woodguy would probably like a mulligan on that, but DanMan’s stopped showing his face around here all together.

    Captain Happy: Over an extended period of time, [career games played is] an excellent way to rank players.

    This explains the captain’s long-time love of Sam Gagner.

  50. "Steve Smith" says:

    Also, how had I not previously heard that about Brock Radunske? That’s a fantastic story.

  51. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Captain Happy: Over an extended period of time, it’s an excellent way to rank players.

    So GP is an excellent method for ranking draft success, unless it’s the Oilers when it’s simply a sign of how terrible and desperate the team is. Riiiiight.

  52. PaperDesigner says:

    Lowetide: I certainly hope that’s true, and want it to be true. I don’t think we saw enough evidence of it being true. We have another season ahead, hope the organization makes the right call on Lander’s role (and in the correct city).

    Yes, and I don’t think your position is unreasonable. I think this year could very well determine the trajectory of his career.

  53. Lois Lowe says:

    “Steve Smith”:
    Also, how had I not previously heard that about Brock Radunske?That’s a fantastic story.

    Have you heard of Brock
    Radunske? Oiler prospect;
    Korean athlete.

  54. Dixs35 says:

    IMO Lander shouldn’t even have played an NHL game yet, but you can blame that strictly on Tambs and Renney. He wasn’t ready 2yrs ago and he isn’t ready now, Maybe in a year but not now. PRV is another guy who has progressed into an NHL player, but if this were another organization he may have spent some time in the minors before logging NHL mins. I know he put up good rookie numbers but he clearly had holes in his game.

    IMO prospects are like a flank steak you need to let them marinate for a while before they are ready.

    To the comparing, you will never be able to do that without taking things into context. When you have the 1st OV and know you have an impact player you will always be prone to wander and look for things that are devoid in your organization whether you are reaching or not. Yes I am aware LT hasn’t gotten to that point yet but it does explain a number of picks lately

  55. Dixs35 says:

    Granted the Abney and Hesketh picks were awful, but whats more of an indictment was the signing of Abney in the first place. Hopefully that can be remedied this summer. and replaced with a slight upgrade in Kessey and I do mean slight.

  56. Woodguy says:

    “Steve Smith”,

    This line saved me:

    Now, if the Oilers don’t go get a true 3C then they are truly stupid.

    I wasn’t a Brodziak fan and thought the Oilers would get a real 3C and develop Poultuny, Poo or Brule in the 4C spot.

    Didn’t expect them to do fuck all and let the 3/4C positions just drift.

    Thought they had a plan.

    Didn’t know it was Management By Neglect at that time.

  57. russ99 says:

    Lander was a 3rd line “grinder” center in Sweden.

    Don’t see where everyone expects this offense to come from.

    He is what he is, and could be a cheap sub for 4th line duty next year.

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