MONK

So far this spring, we’ve been talking about the draft as it relates to the Edmonton Oilers. I like to do my own top 30 for the draft (I post it in the days leading up to draft day) and a lot of it comes from Desjardins’ NHLE’s. Here are the NHLE’s (forwards and blue) for this year’s top prospects.

FORWARDS (per 82 gp)

  1. Jonathan Drouin, Halifax (QMJHL)  19-30-49
  2. Sasha Barkov, Tappere Tampere (SM-Liiga) 18-22-40
  3. Elias Lindholm, Brynas (SEL) 15-25-40
  4. Nathan MacKinnon, Halifax (QMJHL) 17-22-39
  5. Max Domi, London (OHL) 15-18-33
  6. Hunter Shinkaruk, Medicine Hat (WHL) 14-19-33
  7. Sean Monahan, Ottawa (OHL) 13-20-33
  8. Anthony Mantha, Val d’or (QMJHL) 17-13-30
  9. Valeri Nichushkin, Chelyabinsk Traktor (KHL) 20-10-30
  10. Adam Erne, Quebec (QMJHL) 9-15-24
  11. Curtis Lazar, Edmonton (WHL) 13-8-21

DEFENSE (per 82gp)

  1. Seth Jones, Portland (WHL) 6-17-23
  2. Darnell Nurse, Sault Ste Marie (OHL) 4-11-15
  3. Rasmus Ristolainen, TPS Turku (SM-Liiga) 3-10-13
  4. Nikita Zadorov, London (OHL) 2-8-10

That’s the Bob McKenzie list, plus the guys he mentioned during the lottery show, along with an addition from Redline (Erne) and their top 10. When I make my list, I try to keep things fairly clean; by that I mean there’s always someone ranked in the 40′s who has a nice NHLE, but there’s a reason the scouts are nicking him and we have to respect that (even with the plus stats).

I’ve included kids like Lazar because the reports we get (McKenzie mentioned him on the show, Luedeke has told me he’ll move up) suggest he’ll be somewhere in the 12-20 range for the draft. I also included Anthony Mantha because he scored 50 goals and that’s outstanding, plus he’s a big player and they tend to go high. However, Redline is down on him, so that’s worth factoring in.

  • (REDLINE REPORT) Anthony Mantha: Will never be accused of playing with too much intensity… or heart… or effort for that matter.

This list doesn’t care about bias, so the attraction of Lazar doesn’t help him on this list. It’s heavy on NHLE, prefers forwards and assumes the stay-at-home defensemen are overvalued (any defense-first D taken in the top 10 is going to be considered a disappointing pick 5 years later).

LOWETIDE TOP 10 (FIRST DRAFT) 2013

  1. Seth Jones
  2. Jonathan Drouin
  3. Sasha Barkov
  4. Nathan MacKinnon
  5. Elias Lindholm
  6. Valeri Nichushkin
  7. Sean Monahan
  8. Anthony Mantha
  9. Rasmus Ristolainen
  10. Darnell Nurse

As for the Oilers, I honestly believe they trade out if Lindholm or Monahan aren’t there. It’s a perfect storm of bad options in their minds: a Russian in Russia, a bunch of defensemen who may or may not work out and they like a guy who’ll probably be there if they deal down 4 or 5 spots.

  • Team Canada coach Steve Spott on Monahan: “his hockey sense, in my mind, is at a National Hockey League level right now. He has elite hockey sense. He is just one of those players who can play in any situation – 5-on-5, 5-on-4, on your [penalty kill]. Sean has that innate ability. He is going to be an elite NHL player. There is no doubt about that.”
  • Chris Edwards, Central Scouting: “Sean has high-end puck skills and playmaking ability. He has very good offensive instincts and creates offense every shift.”
  • Jonathan Willis, Cult Of Hockey: Monahan’s comparables lack the sizzle of Aleksander Barkov’s, but there’s no doubt he projects as a pretty good player based on his junior numbers. Solely going by the statistics, a projection of him as a regular 50-point in his prime seems reasonable.

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64 Responses to "MONK"

  1. Rondo says:

    LT,

    What do you think of Steven Santini in the 2nd round ?

    http://www.redlinereport.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/01/Santini-Spotlight.pdf

  2. Lowetide says:

    I spoke to Guy Flaming and Kirk Luedeke about him last week on the show, very interesting.

  3. Rondo says:

    Are you saying Oilers won’t take Elias Lindholm? Is he too small as a center ?

    I think Oilers would take Valeri Nichushkin if Sean Monahan is gone.

  4. sliderule says:

    LT

    You have Lindholms NHLe wrong

    You have his numbers from SEL.

    His actual NHLe for 82gm is 40 the same as Barkov

  5. gcw_rocks says:

    You think the Oilers would pass on Lindholm if he is there at 7? That would be foolish.

  6. Wes Mantooth-11 says:

    The Oilers need to move up to secure Monahan or Barkov.

    If the draft moves like this, which I expect it will.

    1-Jones
    2-Drouin
    3-MacKinnon

    Then I think the Oilers can make a deal with the Predators or the Hurricanes, both who don’t really need center’s.

    There’s a deal there.

  7. Rondo says:

    Wes Mantooth-11,

    Give them Omark

  8. Lowetide says:

    sliderule:
    LT

    You have Lindholms NHLe wrong

    You have his numbers from SEL.

    His actual NHLe for 82gmis 40 the same as Barkov

    Correcting now

  9. Jon K says:

    LT, will you be doing individual write ups on prospects in the range once we get closer to the draft?

    I mentioned my reservations about players on terrible junior teams in reference to Monahan. I still think that Lindholm should be the fellow targeted. However in my view either Monahan or Lindholm in the first round would be a success I think.

    I really hope all the talk about Lazar is speculation and nothing more. I remain hopeful based upon Stauffer’s talking up of Monahan.

  10. Lowetide says:

    Jon K:
    LT, will you be doing individual write ups on prospects in the range once we get closer to the draft?

    As for individual writeups, yes I will but only for the top 10 or so.
    I mentioned my reservations about players on terrible junior teams in reference to Monahan. I still think that Lindholm should be the fellow targeted. However in my view either Monahan or Lindholm in the first round would be a success I think.

    I really hope all the talk about Lazar is speculation and nothing more. I remain hopeful based upon Stauffer’s talking up of Monahan.

    I had the Lindholm NHLE incorrect, have accounted for and moved him up (past Monahan and Nichushkin). speeds kept saying Lindholm should be above Monahan but I’m ‘no, don’t think so’ because I figured out the NHLE incorrectly. Sheesh.

    As for writeups, yes but only for the top 10 or so. In regard to Lazar, two media folks who are independent of each other mentioned Lazar to me (either on the radio or through correspondence) as an Oiler favorite.

    That COULD be window dressing, but based on their own past (mondo Oil Kings) I’m guessing it’s true

  11. sliderule says:

    LT
    Lindholm played in SEL

    Conversion rate is .78

    He got 11 goals19assists in 48 games .

    .625pts/game x.78 x 82 GMs gives 40 pts.

    If I am wrong on this I quit with trying to understand advanced stats

  12. Lowetide says:

    sliderule:
    LT
    Lindholm played in SEL

    Conversion rate is .78

    He got11 goals19assists in 48 games .

    .625pts/gamex.78x 82 GMsgives 40 pts.

    If I am wrong on this I quit with trying to understand advanced stats

    Yes, fixed and thanks! I was using the wrong thingy for SEL.

  13. Rondo says:

    LT

    So does that change your mind regarding Linholm

  14. sliderule says:

    I think Lindholm will be gone before we pick.

    If Carolina wants one of the defencemen I hope that they would take one of our second rounders to move ahead of Calgary and take Barkov Lindholm or Monahan.

    The swedish guys i read rave about Lindholm best since Peter Forsberg yada yada yada.

    He has the best NHLe for swedes since Forsberg and by my eye at WJC looked real good

  15. gogliano says:

    ??? Must be an edit because I read that Oil trade down if Lindholm and Monahan aren’t there.

    In any event, there is even an outside shot both are there when the Oil pick — if Nichushkin and a defenseman not name Seth Jones go in the top 6 then Lindholm/Monahan are the most likely men out. Doubtful, but I can see it happening.

    If it happens I really like this Lindholm kid. But snagging either of them will be a nice #1 pick.

  16. Lowetide says:

    Rondo:
    LT

    So does that change your mindregarding Linholm

    Yes, moved him up past Monahan and Nichushkin. Suspect he’ll be gone though, that’s a wonderful NHLE for a guy who’ll go 5 or so. Crap.

  17. speeds says:

    I am mildly surprised, I wondered if LT might have both, or either, Drouin/MacKinnon ahead of Jones.

  18. Lowetide says:

    speeds:
    I am surprised, I though LT might have both Drouin and MacKinnon ahead of Jones.

    I had Drouin ahead earlier, he might end up there again. Jones is just so impressive, I can’t see how he’ll miss.

  19. Gi JQE says:

    I am on the Linhom bandwagon… really hope he slips. Maybe someone chances on Nichushkin and Cgy takes Monahan.. then Linholm could be there at 7??!?! Personally he is my target. But I will be fine if we can walk away with any of the top Cs.

    I know all the scare around Nichushkin… but he is huge and I believe will end up being the steal in this draft with whatever team takes the chance. My humble opinion: In 5 years he will be concensus 1st overall in a redraft…

  20. Lowetide says:

    GI JOE: Suspect Calgary will take a center, so if Lindholm and Monahan are there at 6 then EDM will get the guy Calgary ranks 2nd. That would probably be Monahan, which is terrific.

  21. speeds says:

    I think they’ll have to trade up to get one of Monahan/Lindholm, but then again,there seems to be some sort of surprise most years.

    Didn’t think Forsberg would be around at 11 last year, or Couturier at 8 the year before, or Fowler at 12 the year before that.

  22. Gi JQE says:

    Lowetide,

    Yup, can’t really complain about that.

    Since I would take Lindholm over Monahan so will Cgy??? … it is Feester…. soooo???

  23. Rondo says:

    I could see Carolina going for a Dman or a winger like Nichushkin.

    Carolina has a number of good centers already

    Eric Staal
    Jordan Staal
    JIRI TLUSTY
    Riley Nash
    Jeff Skinner
    Ruutu

  24. jp says:

    Rondo:
    I could see Carolina going for a Dman or a winger likeNichushkin.

    Carolina has a number of good centers already

    Eric Staal
    Jordan Staal
    JIRI TLUSTY
    Riley Nash
    Jeff Skinner
    Ruutu

    They do have decent C depth, but Tlusty, Skinner and Ruutu all play wing primarily. Hopefully someone steps up and takes Nichushkin or a D though.

  25. Rondo says:

    jp,

    Yeah they are converted wingers.

  26. godot10 says:

    Fisher and Legwand and Gaustad are aging. Nashville isn’t going to trade down. They will pick a centre.

    Carolina is likely to pick a defensemen or use their pick to trade for a defensemen. D is a gaping need there, with a goaltender and forward cluster already in place. Somebody looking for a centre willing to trade a decent defensemen to Carolina is the biggest threat to a centre being available at #7.

  27. supernova says:

    Rondo,

    Agree with you, some of those you mentioned mainly play the wing.

    I also think they are prime to grab another asset to rebuild there system.

    They lost a couple assets acquiring Staal and Mr. Waiver wire has been a bust as a first rounder.

  28. Lowetide says:

    From Matheson

    The Oilers have three options. They can try hard to move into the top four to get Barkov, who might just be the most ready of the draft picks outside of Jones, although he’s out with a shoulder injury right now; they take the six-foot-five, 230-pound Zadorov at No. 7, if he’s there, or Monahan, but it’s a reach to have him still available at seven.

    “Sky’s the limit with Zadorov,” said London GM Mark Hunter, who sees some of his old Montreal Canadiens’ teammate Larry Robinson in the Russian blue-liner.

    The Oilers could also trade the No. 7 pick and move further back to take either Edmonton Oil Kings centre/winger Curtis Lazar or six-foot-five Quebec Major Junior Hockey League centre Frederik Gauthier, who scored the winning goal for Canada at the world under-18 championshi

    http://www.edmontonjournal.com/sports/hockey/edmonton-oilers/Hockey+World+McDavid+already+considered/8340662/story.html?cid=dlvr.it-twitter-ej_oilers

  29. speeds says:

    My guess is that Matheson is inserting his perception of need there with Zadorov, but it’s also possible he’s hearing something along those lines.

  30. sliderule says:

    Gauthier scares me .

    Nice skater decent hands ,very big but plays soft.

    That is not a good combo for oiler fans who have long memories

  31. speeds says:

    Now that I read the whole section, Matheson more or less just lists what he perceives as the needs of the clubs and then gives that team a player fitting that need. I’m not sure if that’s how most teams draft, particularly in the early first round, so I’m not sure how much weight to give that section of the article.

  32. Lowetide says:

    There was a time when Matheson was very connected, but the Lazar item has been around awhile. Hell, we’ve talked about it for some time here on this blog.

    The Kadorov item does speak to the McIlrath part of the Oilers, but I can’t see MacT drafting a guy who is slow and or doesn’t have a lot of offense.

    DOES Kadorov skate well? The offense looks meh, but does he have PP time?

  33. Rondo says:

    Lowetide,

    Nurse seems to have more offense than Zadorov. If they pick a D my guess Nurse

  34. Lowetide says:

    Zadorov by discipline

    EV: 63, 5-12-17
    PP: 63, 1-7-8
    PK: 63, 0-0-0

    so he must have had some PP time, but Maata is the puck mover. I’ll have to read up, it sounded to me like he was a stay at home type, suspect that’s what he’ll be as a pro.

  35. speeds says:

    Lowetide:
    There was a time when Matheson was very connected, but the Lazar item has been around awhile. Hell, we’ve talked about it for some time here on this blog.

    Lazar has been around for awhile, but why? Is it because EDM really likes Lazar? Is it because it’s an easy narrative – Lazar plays for the Oil Kings, style of play seems to fit what some believe is EDM’s area of need?

  36. spoiler says:

    I have Drouin first. But I havent had a chance to parse the playoffs yet.

    LT…

    Any chance of a post doing the NHLEs of the Top 10 of the Hall draft onwards so we can compare the respective top 10s and see if this draft is as deep as advertised and whether trading that pick is smart or not? I can’t even remember Gagner’s NHLe and we’re pickin about the same spot.

  37. Lowetide says:

    speeds: Lazar has been around for awhile, but why?Is it because EDM really likes Lazar?Is it because it’s an easy narrative – Lazar plays for the Oil Kings, style of play seems to fit what some believe is EDM’s area of need?

    This is what I know:

    1. Going into the year, Lazar was ranked in Bob McKenzie’s pre-season top 10
    http://www.tsn.ca/draftcentre/feature/?id=9600

    2. I have a group of people I talk to–media, guys who talk to scouts, etc–and ALL of them told me all winter that Lazar was ranked way too low.

    3. When Lazar started scoring again (39 goals in his last 64 games, including playoffs, if I’m counting correctly) I got all kinds of information about him moving up.

  38. VanOil says:

    Tikkanen needs a job! (or at least a better one)

    I would love him to run a finishing school for young Oiler Nordic hockey players this summer. Now he can serve sausages.

    http://www.iihf.com/competition/352/home/blog.html

    http://www.grillimaisteri.fi/gmtube/tiki

    As Oilers now have a Coach who is a great communicator, a GM who is a very good one how about a little strange?

  39. Lowetide says:

    spoiler:
    I have Drouin first.But I havent had a chance to parse the playoffs yet.

    LT…

    Any chance of a post doing the NHLEs of the Top 10 of the Hall draft onwards so we can compare the respective top 10s and see if this draft is as deep as advertised and whether trading that pick is smart or not? I can’t even remember Gagner’s NHLe and we’re pickin about the same spot.

    Sure, but they’re right here:

    http://lowetide.ca/blog/2010/04/desjardins-nhle-for-2010s-best-draft-prospects.html

    http://lowetide.ca/blog/2011/03/math-gone-wild.html

    http://lowetide.ca/blog/2012/06/draft-week-post-7-desjardins-nhle.html

  40. gogliano says:

    Good to see Kesler isn’t, in fact, dead.

  41. sliderule says:

    The NHLe for Gagner was 55 and he got 49 in 78 games.

    In OHL he played with Kane and got 83assists which skewed his conversion.

    Hall had an NHLe of 46 which he beat handily as he missed a part of the season because of injury

  42. RickDeckard says:

    Monahan, Lindholm, Nichushkin, Ristolainen or bust. No trading down, no trading up and no reaches. Take the player, finish the late rounds and walk away at peace.

  43. Derek says:

    I find it quite interesting that we all seem to agree on taking BPA in the first round as team needs change during the development time of a prospect, however here we all are, trying to guess which teams ahead of Edmonton take who based on current need and the makeup of their rosters/prospects.

    I’m fine with either of Monahan or Lindholm, I wanted Lindholm previously due to the perceived footspeed issue with Monahan and the NHLe number does nothing to discourage that. Someone here stated earlier that playing with Calle Jarnkrok may be skewing his numbers, but an NHLe of 40 for a player that may be available in the 7 slot is phenomenal. A peek back (http://lowetide.ca/blog/2012/03/nhle-for-2012s-forwards.html) shows that to be in Seguin/Skinner/Tarasenko territory.

  44. gogliano says:

    Is Captain Triste/DS and F blocked on this site?

  45. Lowetide says:

    gogliano: Is Captain Triste/DS and F blocked on this site?

    Not blocked, but his posts are reviewed.

  46. Ducey says:

    gogliano:
    Good to see Kesler isn’t, in fact, dead.

    Is it bad that I had to think about that?

  47. speeds says:

    spoiler:
    I have Drouin first.But I havent had a chance to parse the playoffs yet.

    A brief look:

    Halifax is 14-0.

    Drouin 14 GP 10G 20A for 30 pts, +19
    MacKinnon 14 GP 9G 20A for 30 pts, +15

  48. pboy says:

    Wow, I wonder who the next coach of the Canucks is going to be?

  49. Rondo says:

    Alain Vigneault will be available as a coach next year.

  50. Derek says:

    This Vancouver game is amazing. BTW

    E: Schneider may be available too!

  51. gogliano says:

    MacKinnon is almost a half year younger (he is almost a 2014 draft) and plays the more difficult position. I can see the Drouin over MacKinnon case but I’d pick the center if I was slotted at #2.

  52. Gerta Rauss says:

    I find it a little disturbing that Matheson doesn’t even see Lindholm as one of his 3 options-even if we accept his selections for the first six spots, Lindholm will be there for the Oilers at 7.

    I hope the org sees things differently.

  53. Cameron says:

    I know that Nichushkin is often listed as a RW, but my understanding is that he also has spent time at C. If he legitimately projects out ast a C, does that alter the consideration of where he is picked?

  54. PunjabiOil says:

    I’m of the opinion you take either one of Lindholm or Monahan – whoever is available at 7. If all are gone, take Nichushkin.

    The 2 years of being in the KHL doesn’t concern me at all. Is Nurse actually expected to be a contributor at 18 or 19?

    Of course not.

    The Oilers are in a very gifted spot – there isn’t much separating the 2nd tier of top end prospects (5-7), so if they play their cards right, they will end up with a very good prospect.

    They can screw it up however by moving down for an extra 2nd round pick that has a 15% chance of making the NHL.

  55. Gerta Rauss says:

    PunjabiOil,

    Agree with all of that-they are also in a position to see if Carolina wants to swap picks if someone in the top 4 takes a wildcard and Barkov is available. I really doubt that happens, but you never know. This talk of trading down scares the hell out of me.

  56. PunjabiOil says:

    I find it a little disturbing that Matheson doesn’t even see Lindholm as one of his 3 options-even if we accept his selections for the first six spots, Lindholm will be there for the Oilers at 7

    I hope the org sees things differently.
    .

    I doubt the Oilers even have their final list done right now, and even if they have, they’ve been much more tight lipped as opposed to in the past when Lowe was GM.

    And as always, things can change.

    Like last year – perhaps Katz interfering was the best thing he did for the organization..

    Two Oiler employees that I know personally have told me that Stu and Lowe wanted Murray, Tambellini was undecided but said they should go with the scouts opinion, and Katz wanted Yakupov. Perhaps fan sentiment against Stauffer’s hints of the Oilers drafting Murray swayed Katz?

    Never thought the Oilers were ever bullish on Yakupov. As MacT mentioned in the HNIC after hours session, there was some concern about Yakupov before he got to Edmonton, and how he’d be as a teammate.

    As for D.S. F’s posts being reviewed – it’s about time. You give someone an inch, they take a mile.

    It’s quite sad, actually.

  57. fifthcartel says:

    Wonder what changes Vancouver is going to make after this series.

  58. gogliano says:

    PunjabiOil:
    I find it a little disturbing that Matheson doesn’t even see Lindholm as one of his 3 options-even if we accept his selections for the first six spots, Lindholm will be there for the Oilers at 7


    I hope the org sees things differently.
    .

    I doubt the Oilers even have their final list done right now, and even if they have, they’ve been much more tight lipped as opposed to in the past when Lowe was GM.

    And as always, things can change.

    Like last year – perhaps Katz interfering was the best thing he did for the organization..

    Two Oiler employees that I know personally have told me that Stu and Lowe wanted Murray, Tambellini was undecided but said they should go with the scouts opinion, and Katz wanted Yakupov. Perhaps fan sentiment against Stauffer’s hints of the Oilers drafting Murray swayed Katz?

    Never thought the Oilers were ever bullish on Yakupov. As MacT mentioned in the HNIC after hours session, there was some concern about Yakupov before he got to Edmonton, and how he’d be as a teammate.

    As for D.S. F’s posts being reviewed – it’s about time. You give someone an inch, they take a mile.

    It’s quite sad, actually.

    This post is plausible because of its portrait of Tambellini in the whole affair.

  59. fuzzy muppet says:

    I know lots of folks don’t like fighting, but it sure adds drama to a game. That Ottawa/Montreal series is now at a whole new level and is entertaining as hell. The timeout by Mclean with 17 seconds left in that blowout only adds more bad blood.

    Good Lord, Playoff hockey is unparalleled. Nothing compares to it.

  60. Ducey says:

    fifthcartel:
    Wonder what changes Vancouver is going to make after this series.

    1.Coaching change
    2. Trade a goalie
    3. Depending upon how well #2 goes, look at a new GM.

    Gillis fumbled the whole Lou Lou affair and has not brought in any offense to help the twins. Vancouver’s D looks pretty suspect with 4 guys playing 23 minutes a game. 2 of those, Hamhuis and Bieksa, have not looked that good to me. They have no 4th line. They are not even a really big team anymore. The Kassian trade was a poor move. On top of all that they have to cut salary (although I guess getting rid of Luongo and buying out Ballard would fix that).

    We knew the window was closing, but it may be shut now unless they can convert a couple of key guys into some youth.

  61. dessert1111 says:

    The more I watch Oil Kings the more I would be okay if they traded down and took Lazar. Assuming they got a reasonable return, of course. But I’ve never seen Lindholm play and think Monahan is overrated….he scares me the most out of all the guys in the 7 range.

  62. RickDeckard says:

    Is Edler on the trading block? If so, what do the Oilers offer for him?

  63. Lucinius says:

    Ottawa and San Jose winning was excellent.. and the Islanders should have won.

    Pens/Islanders series is the only one not going how I want it, though I was hoping the Hawks would take the Wild out in 4 or 5 and its looking like it might take 6.

    But if the Canucks get swept? GLORIOUS.

  64. Truth says:

    AV is getting heavily out-coached and I love it. Their frustrating offensive zone pressure of consistent D-man pinching on the wingers is meticulously picked apart and the Sharks of new, led by Couture, are now fast enough to benefit off of the odd-man rushes that ensue. The Canucks bandwagon is going to have to lay off a few draft horses right away.

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