If Corey Pronman’s list holds true, the Edmonton Oilers will select two-way C Sean Monahan at #7 overall at the 2013 NHL Entry draft June 30th. Pronman does an excellent job on his list, and then fills in the scouting blanks as well as anyone I’ve read (and I’ve read McKenzie, Button, Redline, ISS, and a few others). Among the items of interest:
- Pronman’s 1-2-3 turns McKenzie’s list upside down. Corey’s list: Drouin, MacKinnon, Jones. McKenzie’s list: Jones, MacKinnon, Drouin. I think that’s an indication that this is a pretty close race and we shouldn’t be surprised at the name called first–unless it’s someone other than this trio. Jones is my pick for #1 overall.
- He has the Russian Nichushkin (#4) ahead of Finn Barkov (#5) followed by Lindholm and then Monahan. Speeds’ list (iirc) also has Monahan behind Lindholm, as does McKenzie. Monahan could fall to Edmonton if someone takes the Russian. The most likely team? Lightning.
- The defense has only 2 players in the top 10 (Ristolainen and of course Jones), but 4 in the 11-20 portion of the draft (Nurse, Pulock, Zadorov, Morrissey). If the Oilers trade out of the #7 spot, I’d guess it would be with the intention of taking one of Nurse, Zadorov or Lazar at their new number.
- Anthony Mantha is rated #22, I have him hovering around the #10-#12 mark.
- #25 is JT Compher, Kirk Luedeke mentioned him as a quality prospect when I talked to him this week. If you’re like me and have the top 10 surrounded but need to figure out 11-20, don’t forget this guy.
- Curtis Lazar is #29 on Corey’s list. Maybe we see a repeat of last year’s heartbreak when Samuelsson was chosen late first round with Edmonton wishing and hoping in the early 30′s. I expect he goes much earlier, in the 12-15 range.
- #31 is Gauthier and #32 is Petan. If the Oilers are to follow MacT’s wishes and go after skill, one of these two prospects might be under consideration.
- Kerby Rychel has fans who frequest this blog, he’s at #44.
- Anton Slepyshev, who was available and well ranked a year ago, is at #45. One of the great things about Pronman’s list is that he does indeed rank players who were eligible a year or two ago.
- At #47, Michael McCarron was mentioned by Guy Flaming this week as a very interesting player. Worth following, Oilers took his brother in the ’12 draft.
- G Tristan Jarry is at #89, I’d bet money Edmonton has him high on their list.
- #99 is Greg Chase, who looked good during the playoffs against the Oil Kings. Interesting player.
- Adam Tambellini is #104. Would Edmonton take him? I bet they would if the was the top guy remaining on their board.
- #118 is JC Lipon, who has become famous this season.
- Eric Comrie is #127, I think he might be the first NA goalie off the board.
- #187 is Oil King defender Cody Corbett. I thought he might go last season.
PRONMAN’S LIST LAID ONTO THE OILERS DRAFT PICKS
If we marry Pronman’s list to the Oilers draft numbers, we get the following:
- #7 Sean Monahan: I imagine the Oilers rush the stage to announce his name, Monahan at 21 or 22 might end up being the exact item EDM is looking for now, and he also appears to be BPA at that number. I think the Oilers deal down if he’s not there.
- #37 Anthony DuClair: Projected as a first round talent entering the season, he was meh offensively this year and has seen his numbers plummet (didn’t help that Grigorenko wasn’t around). Whispers of attitude problems sounds distinctly non-Oiler, but the young man does have skill.
- #58 (ANA pick, final number could change) Will Butcher: Part of that magical USNTDP team that produces defensemen by the dozen, here’s what nhl.com had to say about him: The 5-foot-9.5, 191-pound offensive-minded defenseman offers tremendous speed and intelligence and is instinctual with the puck. A left-handed shot, Butcher has good vision, is calm in transition and can quarterback the power play.
- #128 Mitchell Wheaton: Huge (6.05, 225) defensive defenseman whose style of play has been compared to Chris Tanev.
- #158 Jake Guentzel: Small and fast, this story has him at 5.06, 135 in 2010 fall (he’s 5.08, 140 now according to Central Scouting) and I’m worried about him already.
- #188 Vladimir Tkachev: Skilled Russian center with decent size.
Corey’s list is made this way, and I think it’s the best list in the business. It is NOT like the McKenzie list, where Bob is collecting information and then slotting the players based on what he’s been told. Bob doesn’t project anything, Corey’s list by definition is doing exactly that based on the information made available via viewing, video and talking to the industry. Two different photos of the same moment in time.
WHAT WILL THE OILERS DO?
The Oilers are going into this draft (imo) hoping Sean Monahan will be there, but would bet that Calgary grabs him and the Russian falls. I don’t think the Oilers will select Nichushkin–that’s based on the contract (2 years and the only way to get out of it is if the player buys himself out, according to Stu MacGregor via Jason Gregor) and team bias–I don’t think they’re ever going to draft a guy who is as involved in the crazy world of the KHL as deeply as this player.
So, at #7 I think the Oilers deal down–I’ll guess to Winnipeg–and pick up picks #13 and #43. And I believe the draft picks might look like this:
- #13 Curtis Lazar: May end up playing the wing by the time he arrives in the NHL, but the physical, skilled forward (6.0, 190 according to Central Scouting) has been terrific in the Oilers back yard all season (and before). The club hasn’t taken an Oil King in the first round so far, but that ends this season.
- #37 Kerby Rychel: Qualifies as a skilled winger (40-47-87 in 68 OHL games) and has size too (6.01, 205) and some truculence (almost 100 pims). I’m stealing this quote from Jonathan Willis and this article, but the reason behind picking both Lazar and Rychel is contained in this quote:
- Stu MacGregor: “Things are different [under MacTavish than they were under Tambellini]. Mac has a theory you need lots of skill and that you need skill to be able to make plays, but he also is saying ‘we need the passion of players to be able to compete’ which is something that we’ve tried to find. He believes that we’ve got to get a little bit bigger; these aren’t things that people would be surprised by. Mac has his theories and his ideas of what needs to be done; he followed us a lot during the season, I think he knows us pretty well. This is his first year-end meeting that he’s sat in on. He’s given us some ideas of things that he likes and wants. Part of that is discussion with us, myself and him and also within the group, just kind of the way he sees the world. Every GM sees things a little bit differently, and he works a little bit from a coaching standpoint in that guys have to be able to think, players have to be able to figure out what the coach is showing and teaching. He makes us think, and make sure that we’re trying to find those types of players that have that hockey sense and understanding of systems, playing within a group, being able to adapt to circumstances and things like that.”
- #43 Erik Comrie: Tristan Jarry is the other choice for ‘future goalie’ and the Oil Kings crazy SP (.936) may make him a better bet. I think they might feel Comrie is more established and they’ve seen more evidence. If they take either goaltender, I expect the Oilers will consider the future taken care of at this position. They’ll add an NHL backup, but with Roy, Bunz and now Tuohimaa at the pro level they can bridge the gap until Jarry/Comrie are ready.
- #58 (ANA pick, final number could change): Viktor Arvidsson Elite Prospects: “A smallish winger with good speed and impressive technical skills. Really noticeable on the ice with his creativity. Has a fine shot and potential to become a pretty high scoring player. Works pretty hard too and does not ignore his defensive responsibilities.”
- #128: Cole Ully: draftsite.com: “Deceptive scorer and playmaker who can take care of business at high speed. Smaller player who is still adapting to playing against the bigger WHL veterans. He needs continued weight training and girth. Has soft hands, and is a smooth passer on the attack.”
- #158: Zach Bell: Good size, some evidence of being able to move the puck and he has flourished in a very good league. Good decisions, good first pass according to scouting reports and he has a plus shot and size.
- #188: Ashton Sautner: I wondered about his being passed over one year ago, and his performance this spring after the Reinhart injury surely must have turned some heads. At this point in the draft you’re picking a future AHL roster, suspect Sautner has done enough to earn a pick.