RYAN NUGENT-HOPKINS RE12-13: 4TH OF JULY

I would estimate that Ryan Nugent-Hopkins shot high on 20 5-bell chances from the slot this year. It –like his season–was frustating to observe.

RYAN NUGENT-HOPKINS 11-12 (all numbers courtesy behind the net and nhl.com)

  • 5×5 points per 60: 1.98 (3rd among regular forwards)
  • 5×4 points per 60: 7.30 (1st among regular forwards, 1st in NHL)
  • Qual Comp: 4th toughest among regular forwards
  • Qual Team: 2nd best teammates among regular forwards
  • Corsi Rel: 5.6 (6th best among regular forwards)
  • Zone Start: 62.5% (easiest among regular forwards)
  • Zone Finish: 53.6% (2nd best among regular forwards)
  • Shots on goal/percentage: 134/18 13.4% (2nd among F’s>100 shots)
  • Boxcars: 62gp, 18-34-52 .839
  • Plus Minus: -2 on a team that was -26

RYAN NUGENT-HOPKINS 12-13 (all numbers courtesy behind the net and nhl.com)

  • 5×5 points per 60: 1.29 (10th among regular forwards)
  • 5×4 points per 60: 4.91 (4th among regular forwards)
  • Qual Comp: toughest among regular forwards (1st line opp)
  • Qual Team: 4th best teammates among regular forwards
  • Corsi Rel: 19.2 (3rd best among regular forwards)
  • Zone Start: 52.0% (3rd easiest among regular forwards)
  • Zone Finish: 48.5% (9th best among regular forwards)
  • Shots on goal/percentage: 78/5.13% (7th among F’s>70 shots)
  • Boxcars: 40, 4-20-24 .600
  • Plus Minus: -2 on a team that was -15
  1. What do these numbers tell us? He was injured. He also had some bad luck and maddeningly kept missing the freaking net! I think his shoulder must have buggered him up in some way that impacted his accuracy. His scope was askew. His cross-hairs were discombobulated.
  2. Getting kind of technical here, you’re losing me. Sorry. Plus he didn’t score as much as he should have because the hockey Gods saddled him with a 5-spot in shooting percentage. Even with a 10% shooting percentage he scores 4 more goals and the season looks a little better.
  3. Is there anything positive about the offense? Sure. PP looks good (not witch like, but solid) and he did have a nice finish to the season (final 22: 3-14-17 +3). Look, he’s a helluva hockey player but was clearly injured this year so the entire stat line is kind of a ruination.
  4. His offense at 5×5 isn’t awe inspiring. His rookie 5×5/60 (1.98) trails Yak’s rookie number (2.20) but was clear of Hall’s rookie total (1.78).
  5. He’ll never be an offensive dynamo. It would be insane to make any kind of sweeping statements based on a shortened, injured season.
  6. What can we say for certain about him? He’s so good on the powerplay that I think we can (even this early) safely suggest he’s going to post some glorious 5×4 numbers in the future. He’s already pretty good at the portion of the game that requires him to play defense. Nuge makes good decisions and wins battles, gets in lanes and slows progress. He’s exceptional at anticipating and stealing pucks on the back check.
  7. There’s no measurement for that. Sure there is. When we talk about CorsiRel or CorsiOn, we’re talking about possession. We don’t count the seconds where the puck is going in the right direction, but shots and attempted shots for and against is the best way to measure all those little things like backchecking and stealing the puck, slowing entry into the Oiler zone, etc. Unfettered opposition is bad, and Nuge doesn’t allow as much fetter as some of the other youngsters. It’s all in his Corsi number.
  8. So what can he be? I think we’ve seen enough of RNH to say could be a dynamic 2-way C who can play in all three disciplines and impact the game. I think he’ll be a very good EV scorer and a tremendous PP quarterback.
  9. What can’t he be? A power forward.
  10. Can he be better than Hall? Sure, although Hall looks like he’s going to be tough to catch. I don’t think he’ll be a better 5×5 offensive player than Hall or Yak, but that may be due to the position he plays (and the difficulty of it).
  11. Oilers should have taken Landeskog. Why? Nuge outscored Landeskog (24 to 16 points) and plays a more difficult position. Nuge had a tough year, that doesn’t mean anyone should be distancing themselves from him.
  12. Why this song? I could have chosen a hundred “growing up” Springsteen songs, but I like this one because it’s melancholy and beautiful. The accordian is a nice touch, love the accordian. Plus, the hero in this song isn’t exactly Joe Cool, and the song is quiet, subtle and yet still manages to be powerful.
  13. I think you’re overstated the injury and its impact. It has been an issue for a long time.  Willis posted this: Nugent-Hopkins has been plagued by shoulder injuries since entering the NHL, missing time twice in his rookie season. The second injury came in just Nugent-Hopkins’ second game back after missing a month to the first one, and at the time assistant coach Steve Smith suggested that Nugent-Hopkins may have aggravated the previous injury. Back in December, Nugent-Hopkins’ shoulder was again in the news, as his status for the World Juniors came into some doubt thanks to another injury – though ultimately Nugent-Hopkins did play, and played well. Krueger’s comments that this won’t be an on-going issue are encouraging, but as this is Nugent-Hopkins’ fourth injury in less than two years it is very much an issue worth keeping an eye on.
  14. Which was followed by surgery. Is this a long term item? Probably not. Hall went through it and is as good or better. The injuries are the same but not identical and you never know how a player will recover, but early signs are positive and he’s a teenager who should heal quickly. It’s a labral tear according to the player. The comments section in this blog around the time of surgery suggest he should be able to overcome this issue and be productive.
  15. If he was winning battles with a bum shoulder, imagine what he’ll do with a good one! It’s like Hall’s season before surgery (although not at that level). The Nuge should return better than ever, and next season hopefully we can begin to figure out exactly what kind of center RNH will be as a mature player.
  16. How much do you like him? I love this kid! He’s outstanding in so many areas of the game and just turned 20.
  17. How much better is he with Hall and Ebs? A lot. If we look at wowy Nuge/Hall, it’s 54.8/40.5, Nuge/Eberle it’s 52.3/38 (this is zone adjusted/close). If we look at individual Corsi in close games, the gap between Hall/Ebs is drastic.
  18. Wow. Was that the injury? Mostly injury, but even as a rookie Nuge was more exposed and we shouldn’t be surprised. He’ll make massive steps in these advanced stats (barring injury) as time rolls along.
  19. So you’re not worried about Nuge? He’s an outstanding young player. Oilers are lucky to have him. The only problem is injury and the minor irritant that is this season.
  20. Why is is irritating? It doesn’t really give us a window into his progress. We SEE him doing good things, and they are reflected in CorsiRel (along with the Hall push), but he didn’t do enough things in year two that could show progress. We know it’s the injury, but it is still frustrating.

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54 Responses to "RYAN NUGENT-HOPKINS RE12-13: 4TH OF JULY"

  1. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    “Nuge doesn’t allow as much fetter as some of the other youngsters”

    It is these kind of lines that make you one of my favorite writers. You always drop them like crumbs in the middle of the post and I imagine you laughing endlessly to yourself as you concoct them.

    ——-
    On RNH, as I said on the Eberle post, if you look at the totality of his hockey year and not simply his NHL year (as I acknowledged in the Eberle post, I don’t mean to over-value non-NHL results here, just adding some context), RNH looks a lot more solid.

    OKC: 19 8-12-20
    WJC: 6 4-11-15

    Taking those numbers into consideration with his injury, it looks like the totality of his hockey year isn’t so far off course. Certainly not far enough off course to keep me up at night.

  2. Lucinius says:

    Been looking at the various rosters for the World Championships… not surprised Sweden lost, actually. Their team is not nearly as strong as it could have been. Part of it is, of course, several key players are still playing in the NHL Playoffs.. but there’s a couple players even Paajarvi should have beaten out.

    Russia also gets negative marks for no Yakupov! I mean.. no Yak!!

  3. Lucinius says:

    Wow. Ruff is using Brodie on his first PK unit.. and it already burns Canada. 1-0 Denmark.

  4. bookje says:

    I know something you don’t know…
    I am not left handed!

  5. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Denmark is somehow up 1-0 on Canada… just found a stream, didn’t see the goal.

  6. Lucinius says:

    Romulus Apotheosis,

    Danes had a powerplay. Rushed into the zone, Brodie was too wide out and it opened up a massive 10 foot feet between the defenders and basically gave the goal scorer a breakaway who put it home glove side of Dubnyk.

  7. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Hall-Ebs with a great shift and Canada is starting to make things happen.

  8. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Lucinius,

    Thanks… I should have refreshed before posting to see your post on the goal.

  9. Lucinius says:

    Credit to the Danes so far.. skating with Canada and their stick work has been excellent, as has been their pursuit.

    You can clearly see skill level difference.. but so far good stick work and effort level is evening things out a touch. If the Danes make a mistake or get a little tired it could get ugly.

  10. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Hall with a huge hit behind the net and two great chances in tight…

    Cannonball!

  11. justDOit says:

    Romulus Apotheosis:
    Denmark is somehow up 1-0 on Canada… just found a stream, didn’t see the goal.

    Can you enlinken me then, please?

  12. hockeyguy10 says:

    TSN But you have to listen to Crawford

  13. justDOit says:

    hockeyguy10,

    The Crawford Creak (shudders)…

  14. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    stream hunter eu

  15. Lucinius says:

    Canada kept the first powerplay unit out there for the entire powerplay.. ugh. As good as that unit is.. I’ve never been fond of keeping an entire unit out there for the full powerplay. A single player, sure (Ovechkin is a prime example of this). But an entire unit? No.

  16. Lucinius says:

    Not thrilled with the play of a lot of Canadian players so far, especially on D.

  17. Lowetide says:

    Canada is as dull as dish water.

  18. Lucinius says:

    So… Hall is not on the powerplay, period. He’s not on the first or second unit.

  19. justDOit says:

    Looks like most teams that have been cobbled together quickly.

  20. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    justDOit:
    Looks like most teams that have been cobbled together quickly.

    giant ice surface too… the camera can’t even seem to contain it… I think they need a higher vantage point the camera man seems to struggle to pick up the entirety of the play a lot of the time.

  21. Lowetide says:

    duChene. Wow.

  22. Lucinius says:

    So second unit has Eberle on left wing, Simmonds on right wing. I’m sorry, but Hall >> Simmonds and it’d put Eberle back on the right wing on the powerplay.

  23. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Lowetide:
    duChene. Wow.

    He was great in the Spengler too… seems to love international hockey.

    another small guy that plays like a powerhouse.

  24. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Lucinius:
    So second unit has Eberle on left wing, Simmonds on right wing. I’m sorry, but Hall >> Simmonds and it’d put Eberle back on the right wing on the powerplay.

    It was Hall, Eberle and Duchene earlier… my guess is that Ruff is still sorting out his lines and shuffling with Ladd gone missing.

  25. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Stamkosian!!!

  26. Lucinius says:

    Romulus Apotheosis,

    Its Hall and Eberle with Duchene on the second line, but Hall has yet to see the powerplay (they have Simmonds out there instead.. net presence reasons, apparently).

  27. justDOit says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: giant ice surface too… the camera can’t even seem to contain it… I think they need a higher vantage point the camera man seems to struggle to pick up the entirety of the play a lot of the time.

    And this 1:1 aspect ratio on the stream ain’t helping that.

  28. Hammers says:

    Nuge & Hall are the reasons you trade #7 this year . Both had Bum shoulders in junior that the team obviously overlooked or didn’t know and that can be a big problem . Not saying there not great players but what if this surgery doesn’t turn out like Hall’s . I’m surprised teams / oilers aren’t more aware of these types of things .

  29. Lowetide says:

    I’m fine with Hall not being on the PP. I have a feeling that slight’s against Hall will be paid back.

    With interest.

  30. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    That photographer’s Euro-Mullet is all class.

  31. justDOit says:

    Groups of people who are likely to face a lot of rubber (in no particular order):

    Rioting Canuck fans

    Bangkok prostitutes

    Denmark goalies

  32. Lucinius says:

    Now Ladd in for Eberle on the second unit. Hopefully its just to get him more ice time after sitting for awhile with potential issue with the period ending.

  33. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Lucinius:
    Romulus Apotheosis,

    Its Hall and Eberle with Duchene on the second line, but Hall has yet to see the powerplay (they have Simmonds out there instead.. net presence reasons, apparently).

    it was the PP… got it. missed that somehow.

    justDOit: And this 1:1 aspect ratio on the stream ain’t helping that.

    “this feed has been corrected to fit your ancient tube tv”

    Hammers:
    Nuge & Hall are the reasons you trade #7 this year . Both had Bum shoulders in junior that the team obviously overlooked or didn’t know and that can be a big problem . Not saying there not great players but what if this surgery doesn’t turn out like Hall’s. I’m surprised teams / oilers aren’t more aware of these types of things .

    I share your reticence about the Oilers managing player injuries, but not your reticence about Nuge’s recovery or the idea that we need to buy success now with that pick.

    Also, I think the new norm coming out of JR is now a player’s first major nagging injury. It’s like a right of passage and the exception seems to be a player coming up without a major injury.

  34. jake70 says:

    Romulus Apotheosis:
    That photographer’s Euro-Mullet is all class.

    Lol, camera zooms in on him pocketing that wayward puck…..looked like a kid with his hand in the cookie jar. In his defense, the puck did hit him on it’s way down from over the glass.

  35. Lucinius says:

    Canada is winning now due to POISE!

  36. Lucinius says:

    Well, now apparently neither Eberle or Hall on the powerplay units.

  37. Lucinius says:

    Not a big fan on the second line, honestly. I mean, its a very good line, but Duchene and Hall don’t go together well thus far; both are puck carriers. Maybe they’ll work that out.

    Haven’t really noticed Hall tonight aside from one or two shifts.

  38. CM says:

    “•5×4 points per 60: 4.91 (4th among regular forwards, 1st in NHL)”

    LT is there a typo in there? I’m assuming if Nuge is 4th on the oilers he isn’t 1st in the NHL.

    Thanks, CM

  39. Lowetide says:

    CM:
    “•5×4 points per 60: 4.91 (4th among regular forwards, 1st in NHL)”

    LT is there a typo in there? I’m assuming if Nuge is 4th on the oilers he isn’t 1st in the NHL.

    Thanks, CM

    Yeah, copy and pasted last year’s and forgot to delete. Will fix.

  40. TheOtherJohn says:

    He just turned 20, is playing tough competition, had a sore shoulder, is further along defensively than Gagner and is scoring over 100 games at a .745 points per game clip.

    Did I mention he JUST turned 20?

    Nothing to see here, move along……….

    Put another way: EVERYBODY loves Eberle, great player, GREAT, smart, skilled, super sniper….just killing it. Hyperbole intended. Ebs is scoring at a .8 pts per game clip at age 23.

    Not sure how one player is STUPENDOUS, scoring at the same clip as 20 year old (w a bum shoulder) and there are questions with him

    Expect he ends up the 3rd best player on this team. Kinda like a similarly quiet Finn who just got the job done

  41. justDOit says:

    Giroux, Stamkos and Ladd. Now THATS a line!

  42. Lowetide says:

    TOJ: see point #16.

  43. TheOtherJohn says:

    LT

    I know you are real fan of kid

    It’s the old Bill James idea 20 home runs at 20 yrs of age is not like 20 hr at age 23. One accomplishment is not like the other. Might have been talking of Mel Ott???

  44. Lowetide says:

    TheOtherJohn:
    LT

    I know you are real fan of kid

    It’s the old Bill James idea 20 home runs at 20 yrs of age is not like 20 hr at age 23. One accomplishment is not like the other. Might have been talking of Mel Ott???

    lol. The one that always struck me was Robin Yount. He couldn’t hit a lick at 18, but he was in the majors with a few extra base hits. I didn’t know it until I started reading Bill James years later, but Yount’s rookie season–beside an older rookie 2b I’ll say was named Gonzales or Garcia but I’ve forgotten–is a perfect example of what you’re saying.

    Major leagues at 18? That’s a massive tell.

  45. bones says:

    Did you hear the cops finally busted Madam Marie for tellin’ fortunes better than they do… This boardwalk life for me’s through, you know, you ought to quit this scene too

  46. Rebilled says:

    Recommend the Canada highlights on the Oiler site.

    English commentator noted that one of the Canadian players in the red vest ‘struck the rim’ at one point.

    Amazing pass by Hall on the 2nd goal.

  47. Rebilled says:

    *3rd goal

  48. Rebilled says:

    *Eberle, Jesus.

  49. Lowetide says:

    Good name.

  50. Lucinius says:

    Every time I watch the Rangers play I am struck by one single thought;

    Poor bloody Lundqvist playing for the Rangers. Imagine what he could do on a better team.

  51. Rebilled says:

    Lowetide,

    Don’t puck with the Jesus.

  52. stevezie says:

    Souray is healthy scratched tonight. Has anyone been watching the Ducks series? Has he really been that bad? I thought he was anchoring their blueline.

  53. Lowetide says:

    Took a penalty late last night, coaching staffs don’t like that kind of thing. Maybe that’s it.

  54. RickDeckard says:

    stevezie,

    Took a horrible slashing penalty in the last minute of regulation that led to GWG in OT.

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