SAIL ON PARDUBICE PRINCE?

Jim Matheson’s article about Ales Hemsky this weekend gives us a chance to discuss trade value. The idea of dealing Hemsky has been around for some time–there was a rumor he was headed to Nashville leading up to the deadline a couple of years back (for a 2 and a 4, apparently)–and the two year contract (plus the time to fulfill it) hasn’t really changed the lay of the land.

I wonder if Matheson either has inside info or has read the tea leaves (not difficult after MacT’s press conference), or maybe the organization has thrown out a trial balloon with the MacT verbal and Matheson is following things to their conclusion. Let’s review the exact wording of the GM:

  • MacT:For guys who’ve been here a long time and have suffered through this (rebuilding process), Ales has been a good Oiler for us. I don’t want to talk about him. There is a human side and the last thing I want to do is talk about a guy’s future without talking to him first.”

Matheson’s article is here and quotes Craig Button as wondering if the Oilers could get a 2nd rd pick for him (the Cogliano deal as a comparable). I think that’s the one way Hemsky might end up in Edmonton this fall–if there’s no value, MacT is better off keeping him at least until the deadline. Hemsky’s not 40 or anything, and a strong first half might improve trade value (if that’s an issue).

I do think MacT’s words and then the Matheson’s article suggests the organization has plans to move on. I can’t marry the GM’s comments to anything other than “he’s not in the plans.” As convenient as it would be to blame Matheson for this summer’s Hemsky deal, Craig MacTavish is the one who’ll pull the trigger.

If Hemsky was in the plans, MacT’s verbal would have been completely different than the words above. Hemmer’s gone, it’s only a matter of time.

The French online magazine ‘Hockey 30′ suggests the Edmonton Oilers will go hard after Viktor Stalberg, with Montreal also in the sweepstakes. The magazine says the Blackhawks are focused on bringing back Bryan Bickell. Jim Matheson also has the story, along with a writeup on Bo Horvat.

Reports have Daniil Zharkov signing with Torpedo (KHL). I doubt that’s an Oiler endorsed career move, and wonder if it further weakens their attachment to Valeri Nichushkin at #7 overall.

 

yf common

Today on Team 1260 at 10, the Lowdown with Lowetide hits the air. We’ll have quite a bit of open line time, so I’d like your input on Hemsky. Is he worth keeping around? If they do deal him, what’s a fair return? Scheduled to appear:

Text 101260 and you can also tweet @Lowetide_ plus of course there’s the comments section here. I’m really thrilled with the response to the show so far, thanks for listening and giving your input.

We do have room for more advertisers now, if you’d like to join the fun email me at amitchell@astral.com and I’ll send you some information.

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44 Responses to "SAIL ON PARDUBICE PRINCE?"

  1. Wolfie says:

    I like the Martin Erat comparable someone mentioned. I know prices can be inflated at the deadline for teams looking to make the push.

    The draft is probably the worst time to move Hemsky. The opposite is true. Picks are overvalued at the draft.

    If a second is all the Oilers can get for Hemsky I hope they pass. Even a 2nd and a 4th is a severe underpay. This is still a player who can contribute. Hemsky’s role with the Oilers has changed. I think that more than anything has maybe hurt his value more than anything. Erat never really moved off of Nashville’s 1 line. Hemsky got passed by 2 pretty impressive talents in Eberle and Yakupov. There’s no shame in that. That also doesn’t mean Hemsky is a 3rd liner!

    Given opportunity and the right situation I’m sure Hemsky can still play 1st line minutes and at worst 2nd line on a strong team in need of RW depth.

    Unless the Oilers can parlay Hemsky into a promising prospect a la Filip Forsberg or a top 10 pick at the draft then they have to hold onto him.

    Honestly, I think the solution would be to find a LW that can play with Horcoff and Hemsky (Penner has been brought up). That would take some pressure off the kids.

    For the love of god don’t sell low on Hemsky!

  2. Radman says:

    My guess is that 83 is dealt at the draft to either the Jets or CBJ for their (13th or 14th) pick, which becomes Lazar. He is still a legit top six RW and I suspect the Jets might want to try him with Kane.

  3. oilabroad says:

    I dont think the return for Hemsky has to be great in order to move him, I just think it has to be a player who is a better fit right now based on what we need… an exchange of big contracts. If we get a gritty third liner who is over paid for a year or two, make the trade. Keeping Hemksy and paying him 5M to play on the third line in a role he is not suited for makes no sense

  4. leadfarmer says:

    Radman,

    No way that offer is on the table. At best he will get a pick in the 20s. Right now he is a good complimentary piece but not worth 1/12 of a cap hit.. Guessing he’ll fetch a 2nd rounder and a B- prospect or 3rd rounder

  5. Radman says:

    Totally agree that Zharkov’s heading back to the motherland pulls Nichushkin off the radar screen. Doubt he was there to begin with. I still wonder if there is enough worry amongst the tall foreheads about 64 and his heritage. He could easily me their top scorer, but I suspect he is the guy they would part with first in any blockbuster.

  6. leadfarmer says:

    What still amazes me is that Smid and Petry combined finished the year even in +/- on a team that couldnt score for the life of them on 5v5

  7. slopitch says:

    Id sure like to know why Stalberg was benched for games 1 and 2 this series. He looked good last night. I thought I remember his Vollman graph having him quite sheltered. I was at the game 2 in Chicago and I heard multiple fans bitch over Stalberg not playing. Although as much as I like him, this team cant afford any more roster positions on players that need sheltering.

  8. Radman says:

    leadfarmer,

    You may be right. Injury history and contract are issues. The Jets just missed this year and need some offense. The draftable cluster of players in that range aren’t going to impact the their team right away. He is still 29 and a proven NHL player who can score. I’m not sure I believe Button in terms of the market.
    Guess we’ll see what kind of salesman MacT is.

  9. Chunklets says:

    Here’s the Torpedo website report on the signing of Zharkov. It doesn’t say how long his contract is for, but if it’s only 1 year, then that might not be a bad thing at all from the Oilers’ persepective.

  10. Truth says:

    If there is a trade that makes sense and brings reasonable return, pull the trigger, but if Hemsky can’t bring a reasonable return leave him on the team. The Oilers should be serious about being a better team next year and trading a good player away for nothing or marginal return is a mistake. If he is only worth a 2nd round pick right now he should be worth at least the same or more at the deadline.

    IMO Hemsky would be a great add-on in a trade that centered around an Oilers pick and a returning big body with skill. The trade partner gets equal replacement for scoring plus the potential of the pick for a player that the team cannot afford long term, hopefully

  11. Jordan says:

    Re: Zharkov

    Developing in a Pro league – Check
    Playing against Men – Check
    Ease access for pro development team – Fail

    The big issue here is just going to be the team’s ability to shape player development. They still own his rights for a while, and if he develops – great.

    Quest for the interweb greymatter assembly – How long do the Oilers retain he rights with him signing in the KHL – is it indefinite Or does it only last until he’s 20?

  12. mustang says:

    I think the perfect place for Hemmer would be in a trade with Boston. He is made for the #1 line David Krejčí, Milan Lucic, Ales Hemsky. Maybe we could get Boychuck or Ference in return. I like Boston, and I want Hemmer to have a good home with a real chance to win..perfect.

  13. cdean says:

    I don’t think that the Oilers will deal Hemsky until the trade deadline. But on another note LT,
    I am wondering about the status of Arcobello. He is a RFA and subject to waivers if I am correct. What are the possibility of the Oilers having him start on the fourth line so they don’t lose him?

  14. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    mustang,

    He played with Krejci during the lockout too and seemed to enjoy himself and play very well… I’d have to think that would ease the transition for him and help him show the nay-sayers the door.

    On Zharkov… I think him playing in the OHL probably helps us out. He knows the NA game and likes it… I’m guessing he didn’t want another year of junior and wasn’t given any indication there was an AHL spot for him yet… A year in the KHL is not a big deal…

    Tarasenko, right?

  15. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    cdean:
    I don’t think that the Oilers will deal Hemsky until the trade deadline.But on another note LT,
    I am wondering about the status of Arcobello.He is a RFA and subject to waivers if I am correct.What are the possibility of the Oilers having him start on the fourth line so they don’t lose him?

    Remember the C-apocalype this year? Arco came up for RNH only. I think they have him pegged as a 1 or 2 option only… i.e., they are stuck in the skill vs. grind line thinking…

    Unless… MacT is offering a radically different approach I think him and Miller are blocked.

  16. cdean says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: Remember the C-apocalype this year? Arco came up for RNH only. I think they have him pegged as a 1 or 2 option only… i.e., they are stuck in the skill vs. grind line thinking…

    Unless… MacT is offering a radically different approach I think him and Miller are blocked.

    Does that mean they will risk waivers? How big of a risk is it?

  17. Truth says:

    mustang,

    I would be satisfied with Hemsky and the Cogliano pick for one of those 2 D’s (Boychuck or Ference) and the rights to deal with Horton before he goes UFA. Pure fantasy trade talk of course, it would never happen.

  18. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    cdean: Does that mean they will risk waivers?How big of a risk is it?

    I couldn’t say… this is speeds’ realm, isn’t it?

    this year there was no “re-entry waivers” right? ie., you could come up without going on waivers but not go down… maybe that is extended.

    if they sign him… my guess is they expect him to stay as a AHLer with injury call-up only.

  19. Bar_Qu says:

    Just read the Matheson article and I think he is being fair. We know how good Hemsky is and can be, but his value to someone looking from outside would be less. Getting picks for him this summer is the likeliest scenario, and that sucks.

    The ultimate would be getting one of CBJ’s first round picks for him, but I wonder if the Oil even get a second, realistically.

  20. Doug McLachlan says:

    Re Hemsky, we still need to focus on getting NHL players. Hemsky, warts and all (everybody say “shooot”), is a good NHL player. Not getting an NHL player back in a trade for #83, at this point, makes little sense to me. A pick, even #14, does not add to this core so it does not make sense. We discussed a certain Ryan Johansen out of Columbus this weekend. Hemsky and what for Johansen and Tyutin?

    On the “what might be out there” front… Before the playoffs, and an unlikely Leaf push to a game 7 in the opening round, we were discussing the idea of getting under-appreciated M.Grabovsky and J.Gardiner out of Toronto. I know that Damian Cox, as with many MSM-types, is much maligned here but I was curious in today’s piece on MSLE :
    http://www.thestar.com/sports/leafs/2013/05/21/maple_leafs_will_get_tim_leiwekes_attention_soon_as_mlse_continues_tidal_wave_of_change_cox.html
    he drops this little throw-away line “Or maybe he (referring to Dave Nonis) might move 22-year-old Jake Gardiner, a marvel in the post-season, if he can get into the top 10 selections of this year’s draft.” All in favour of our #7 for Jake Gardiner raise their hand.

  21. Kris11 says:

    Here’s a weird thought. I think Hemsky is a good player. And I suspect a lot of GM’s do, too. And maybe somethink he isn’t such a bad overpay.

    I’m still not sure that there is a deal for Hemsky that can be done this offseason. The compliance buyouts and lowered cap make this a weird offseason.

    I’m not sure that there is a team that wouldn’t rather take a chance at UFA’s than take Hemsky’s salary. And once the UFA’s are all bought, the remaining teams might say “meh” and not take his salary at all, unless they can send bad salary back, which Edmonton can’t take (unless it is a Dman who is overpaid, but I can’t find such a Dman that makes sense for someone else to trade for Hemsky.)

    Really, I don’t see a doable trade for Hemsky. Not to say it won’t happen. But what is a doable trade?

    I doubt anyone takes his salary and won’t send a lot back in the form of an overpaid player. Is there such a player that the Oilers would take for Hemsky?

  22. Rondo says:

    I’ve got to think Edmonton would do their due diligence regarding Nichushkin. I don’t know what their relationship is to Nichushkin agent, for that matter who is his agent? Perhaps Yakupov could be of some assistance.

    Sounds like they want Monahan but as i’ve said earlier picking #7 you put out a lot of misinformation. Picks 1-4 is harder to bluff as it seems we know the top 4 we don’t know the order.

    Regarding Hemsky either he is used to move up in the draft. Or they keep him because he will not be worth trading. I do believe he is valuable to the Oilers.

  23. HeavySig says:

    ”All in favour of our #7 for Jake Gardiner raise their hand.

    I have been throwing out Gardiner’s name for a couple of years now, so I wouldn’t mind him on the Oilers. #7 for him seems a bit steep, though. Maybe a swap of Oil #7 for Leaf #21 plus Gardiner? That probably tilts it a bit too far the other way, though.

  24. russ99 says:

    Why bother with Gardiner? He’s not much further along than J. Schultz, and they are similar players.

    If we’re making moves like that for a defenseman, we need someone better and more experienced.

    If we’re doing that why not just draft Nurse at #7?

  25. Kris11 says:

    I tell you, I take Nicushkin in a heartbeat at 7th. (I’d take him as high as 4th or 5th, behind Drouin, Jones, Mackinnon, and maybe Barkov.) He is higher risk than Monahan or Lindholm, because of the risk of flight to the KHL, but he is also higher reward than, IMO, anyone in the draft other than Drouin (and maybe Jones, maybe).

    Kid could be absolutely dominant in a few years and he is a big forward, which is exactly what the Oilers say they want.

    You have to weigh risk and reward. There is more risk and reward with Nicushkin.

  26. leadfarmer says:

    HeavySig,

    I like Gardiner but with arrival of Schultz and emergence of Petry, I dont know where he would fit in the future. I mean someone’s got to play defense.

  27. TheOtherJohn says:

    If all we can get for Hemsky is a 2nd, it sa complete no brainer. Hold on to him till the trade deadline. Its not like we have 12 NHL calibre players and no open spots for 83. We ought not to be moving NHL players out unless we get better players coming back.

    This is all about getting players who can play at this level.

    P.S. its not like our 2nd round picks, Petry excepted, have exactly been kicking it

  28. Captain Obvious says:

    Trading an NHL quality player for a second round pick is a sucker’s bet.

    In other news, Jake Gardiner is great.

  29. asiaoil says:

    Unless you can deal Hemsky to NAS to move up from #7 to #4 and get Barkov or Mac – or – you get another real NHL player that fits a need (big winger who can play or big 3rd line C) then you keep him. As others have pointed out – we need real players and the guy has more talent than anyone outside the wonder kids. Deal at the deadline if necessary when values are higher or keep him for a playoff push. More low picks are meaningless to this team’s immediate needs or future.

  30. rich says:

    @asiaoil:

    Nashville is not going to trade out of #4 for Hemsky when Barkov solves a problem on the ice for them and comes in as a long-term financial solution. Even if Barkov goes before 4, NAS gets Druin or MacKinnon – a skilled talent with a lot of road in front of them. Poile may not have won a championship, but he’s not dumb.

    But to your point – I would not be surprised if Hemsky stays and plays with Horcoff next season and Gagner gets traded. Gagner will bring more in a trade than Hemsky and per the work the Tyler Dellow is doing right now, I’m more convinced than ever that the problem on that line is Gagner – not Hemsky.

    Also, Hemsky and Horcoff have a history of working well together.

    Don’t get me wrong, I like Gagner but he’s not good on the face-off and it’s killing the team. So unless you send him to wing and hope Hemsky can bring back an experienced NHL center or a top 4 D-man, it makes no sense to trade Hemsky now when his value is lowest. Hold off until the next tradeline when teams have cap room if you’re going to unload him. And I think buying him out would be worse.

    I do think Gagner will bring back more and I read MacT’s comments at the end of the season press conference as setting the bar for a trade.

  31. bendelson says:

    In an effort to actually improve the team , they should trade somebody (for somebody better)…

    Hemsky, Gagner, MPS… And picks.

    Hopefully MPS stays.
    Gagner… Hard to say.

    Which leaves Hemmer and picks…

    MacT has his hands full.

  32. HeavySig says:

    I think Gardiner is a better option for the Oiler’s near future than any defenseman in the draft not name Seth Jones. He has played in the NHL for a whole season and while he may have regressed slightly this year, he did bounce back with a good playoff.

    I don’t think the Oilers are deep enough at D to look down their nose at him at all. If you consider the left/right shooting pairings from last year;

    Smid/Petry
    N.Schultz/J.Schultz
    Whitney or Fistric/Potter

    Now eventually Klefbom fits in with the left shooting crowd, but for now, it is apparent that beyond the rapidly diminishing skills of the (maybe) soon to be departed Mr. Whitney, the Oilers have nothing to speak of for offense in the lefty half of the D pairings.

    We always hear about the length of time it takes for a Dman to grow into the role after being drafted, but in Gardiner there is a real NHL player emerging. If you want to let other teams do your defenseman development for you, and they are willing to part with him, then this is when you step up and make that kind of move.

    Gardiner/Petry
    Smid/J. Schultz
    N.Schultz/?

    Crazy, I know, but it would be fun to watch Gardiner and Schultz with a couple of the kids in 4X4 OT.

    Or, we could draft the big center that we know that we need ;)

  33. B S says:

    bendelson,

    I have to admit, out of those three, I trade Hemsky. Paajarvi will be better than any trade value you will get for him, trading Gagner will create a bigger hole than his return could fill, while Hemsky is an expensive 3rd line winger on this team.

    I do think value can be had for Hemsky, as Wolfie mentioned he’s a good 1st or 2nd line winger on many other teams in the league, including contenders like Boston, NY, or even Chicago. I haven’t been on the trade Hemsky bandwagon before because it’s obvious the guy likes playing for Edmonton and plays hard, but he just doesn’t mesh with the team anymore (watching him bypass an open Yakupov in the slot 3 times on 1 shift became unbelievably frustrating). His cap hit is the only knock on him. his skill and work ethic have clear value on the market. I would expect a late 1st round pick, or an expensive player in a trade for him (or Ryan Johanson, but personally I’d take the player). And for those of you citing Button for trade value, for shame, there’s a reason he isn’t a GM anymore and you should know better.

  34. Kert says:

    HeavySig:

    Crazy, I know, but it would be fun to watch Gardiner and Schultz with a couple of the kids in 4X4 OT.

    Or, we could draft the big center that we know that we need

    It would be even more fun to watch them in 5×5 OT.

  35. bendelson says:

    B S,

    I hope you are right. I suspect Hemsky brings very little return.
    Hence the MacT has his hands full comment.

  36. B S says:

    bendelson,

    I tend to agree that some of the value in trading Hemsky is the cap space it frees up, (see Ryan Smyth and the LA Kings), but unless I am replacing him with another good NHL player (either through trade or FA) I wouldn’t trade him. I would trade him for 1st round pick if I know I’m going to then sign or trade for a good 2nd-3rd line checking winger with skill, or D-man with his money. If I’m not getting that I keep him. Hemksy’s a good player, but he’s been bypassed by two exceptional talents on the RW.

  37. mustang says:

    Truth:
    mustang,

    I would be satisfied with Hemsky and the Cogliano pick for one of those 2 D’s (Boychuck or Ference) and the rights to deal with Horton before he goes UFA.Pure fantasy trade talk of course, it would never happen.

    Ya that would be great if something along those lines could workout. No your right it would never happen, pne can hope I guess, seems as that is all we ever have in this town.

  38. mustang says:

    rich:
    @asiaoil:

    Nashville is not going to trade out of #4 for Hemsky whenBarkov solves a problem on the ice for them and comes in as a long-term financial solution.Even if Barkov goes before 4, NAS gets Druin or MacKinnon – a skilled talent with a lot of road in front of them.Poile may not have won a championship, but he’s not dumb.

    But to your point – I would not be surprised if Hemsky stays and plays with Horcoff next season and Gagner gets traded.Gagner will bring more in a trade than Hemsky and per the work the Tyler Dellow is doing right now, I’m more convinced than ever that the problem on that line is Gagner – not Hemsky.

    Also, Hemsky and Horcoff have a history of working well together.

    Don’t get me wrong, I like Gagner but he’s not good on the face-off and it’s killing the team.So unless you send him to wing and hope Hemsky can bring back an experienced NHL center or a top 4 D-man, it makes no sense to trade Hemsky now when his value is lowest.Hold off until the next tradeline when teams have cap room if you’re going to unload him.And I think buying him out would be worse.

    I do think Gagner will bring back more and I read MacT’s comments at the end of the season press conference as setting the bar for a trade.

    Ya know something Rich, your right it wouldn’t suprise me at all if Gags is traded. MacT pumped his tires at the end of the year pressor so I could see him on the move instead. I believe one or other won’t be here come Training camp.It really is the perfect time to trade Gags if thats the plan.

  39. admiralmark says:

    I’ve never liked Hemsky that much(i know travesty). Just dont like his style, his giveaways, his annual inj’s, his attitude. I have voiced plenty on hoping he could be traded. Its sad he wasn’t dealt a couple years ago during that fleeting moment he played well and wasnt injured. But here we are now. And I will say if all MacT can get is a 2nd round pick.. then it would be piss poor asset management to trade him. Personally if thats the case I would showcase him on one of the top 2 lines, pad his stats all we can and deal him to highest bidder at the trade deadline. Only problem is knowing him he will get injured 1-2 weeks before the trade deadline.

  40. misfit says:

    NHL GM’s make a lot of odd decisions on players, but I have to think that a smart one would be in on Hemsky. Especially if we’re talking about a team like Columbus who have cap space and can point to a poor powerplay as a reason for their lack of success. Hemsky has durability issues and was down on the RW depth chart this year, but is still an impact player on the powerplay.

    The Jets have not been shy about expressing their need for top 6 scoring and had the league’s worst powerplay last year.

    Boston had the league’s 5th worst powerplay, have a player with proven chemistry with Hemsky, and could be losing Horton in the offseason. If they can send back another salary or get the Oilers to retain some of Hemsky’s dollars, it could end up being a very worthwhile move for them.

    There are a lot of teams who would be smart to make a move for Hemsky in the offseason, but whether or not any of them do is another thing altogether.

  41. misfit says:

    Gardiner is an interesting name because he fits the description exactly of what Kreuger identfied as the one area he wanted to see addressed this season. A left shooting, puck mover and powerplay defenseman. He’s a $1M cap hit for anohter season, and would give us another puck mover among the top 6D (which I think is a bigger need than another stay-at-home type, especially at LD).

    Of course, I don’t really get why the Leafs would move him at this stage of his career.

  42. Wolfie says:

    If Hemsky goes to Winnipeg, I could see Byfuglien coming back the other way. There’s been a mini witch hunt in Winnipeg with regards to the big Buff. He is certainly a polarizing figure. When he’s on he’s Norris trophy good. When he’s off he’s terrible.

    Salaries are similar for next year but Byfuglien has 3 more years on his deal. I’m not sure if that’s a good or bad thing for the Oilers. There would probably have to be some other elements to a deal to make it work. I would be surprised if Byfuglien wasn’t moved this summer. Trouba is getting a ton of love right now and he has been impressive in small sample sizes with the WJC and WC.

    I think the Jets will always be budget conscious but will spend the money when needed. They haven’t been able to find a fit for Evander Kane so maybe Hemsky fits the bill?

  43. art vandelay says:

    I’d like to see all the links to Dotdotdot’s columns where he sang the praises of Alice. And then links to the archives around here where Oiler fans talked him up like he was the next Wayne Gretzky when everybody else could see he was more like the next Marc Habscheid.
    Wasn’t it just last year when it was posited that Alice would look great if only he could play with some actual talent in, if I recall, Detroit?
    Now he’s untradeable. To anybody.
    To quote Mayor Quimby: “You’re nothing but a bunch of fickle mush-heads.”
    To be fair, there are still some Kool-Aid drinkers: “Given opportunity and the right situation I’m sure Hemsky can still play 1st line minutes and at worst 2nd line on a strong team in need of RW depth.”
    That’s funny.

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