SAIL ON SUMMER?

I spoke to James Mirtle today, we talked about the Leafs and the decisions they have to make this summer. James feels the Leafs can return the roster intact if they choose, but that’s about it–there isn’t a mile of money to add help, so they’ll need to shuffle someone out of the deck to improve. Could be Grabovski leaving, but beyond MacArthur and (buyout) Komisarek they can return intact.

The cap difficulties come from RFA’s Tyler Bozak ($1.5M and expecting a raise), Nazem Kadri ($1.72M with bonuses and expecting a raise), Cody Franson ($1.2M and expecting a raise) and Carl Gunnarsson ($1.325M and expecting a raise).

The Oilers have RFA’s Sam Gagner ($3.2M and expecting a raise) and Magnus Paajarvi ($1.5M and expecting a raise).

When we’re putting together roster and lineup ideas, we as a group slot Gagner in at around $4.5M and give him three years. That seems right to us, but what if Sam Gagner and his agent are asking for well north of $5M? Gagner finished with 38 points, that was 37th among forwards this season. Among the players in that range were Jordan Eberle ($6M next season), Brad Marchand ($4.5M) and Teddy Purcell ($4.5M).

The Oilers are going to be buying free agent seasons, two or more one would guess. Is $5M more realistic?

  • MacT:  “Sam had an unbelievable year (38 points in 48 games) and has developed into a leader here by all regards. In the limited discussions with the group (of players) in there, he’s got the type of character we want. We’ve had a few years of it being too much of a circus in there and that has to change.”

I think MacT will get Gagner signed, whether it’s the $4.5M times three deal or something a little north of it.

One way the new GM could get Gagner under the cap? Buying out the captain.

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17 Responses to "SAIL ON SUMMER?"

  1. Captain Happy says:

    The Oilers need to be very, very careful in their assessment and signing of Gagner.

    He’s always been a streaky player who disappears for long stretches of time and basing a new contract on his performance in a 48 game season is fraught with peril.

    Worth noting that, in his last 10 games, Gagner scored 0 goals and 4 assists and all 4 of those assists were 2nd assists,

  2. spoiler says:

    Buying out Horcoff would be idiotic. If you’re not keeping him… trade him. That contract is weighted perfectly for a trade and right now Horc is doing more to win hockey games than Gagner.

  3. spoiler says:

    And that’s if the Oil are that cap strung, which I don’t believe they are. And they’d likely trade Hemsky first.

  4. rich says:

    LT:

    One thing about MacT’s comments on Gagner. We keep saying this mean’s he’s going to be back, he’s in the plan’s, blah blah.

    What about another possibility? He’s setting the value high for a possible trade?

    A possibility? A probability?

  5. Mr DeBakey says:

    Buy out Horcov so that Gagner can be paid $5mm+?

    I think they’d be further ahead trading Gagner and keeping Horcov.
    Asset management and all that.

    But, It’s something to ponder.

  6. LostBoy says:

    spoiler:
    And that’s if the Oil are that cap strung, which I don’t believe they are.And they’d likely trade Hemsky first.

    Well, yeah, but trading Hemsky is one thing, doing it without taking some problem salary back is another. It’s tough to think of a lot of trade scenarios where we clear a significant amount of that cap space. Playing the adding free agent wingers game is fun (my fantasy list: Clarkson, Horton, possibly trade for RFA Clutterbuck, in total fantasyland trade for Lucic’s $6m cap hit, not interested in Stalberg who enjoys a charmed and sheltered life in Chicago) but it’s hard to come up with many realistic cap scenarios. C is already paper thin, can’t possibly lose both Horcoff and Gagner. But the only way to free much space is one of Horcoff or Gagner, somehow shedding Hemsky’s hit, and possibly clearing Nick Schultz’s.

    (hi Spoiler, this is jadrain of yore)

  7. whale says:

    Unforetunitly, both must go. Be placed with WOW or someone with a similar sounding name.

  8. rickithebear says:

    spoiler:
    Buying out Horcoff would be idiotic.If you’re not keeping him… trade him.That contract is weighted perfectly for a trade and right now Horc is doing more to win hockey games than Gagner.

    i have gone to bat for horcoff for years.
    After this year. tYour statement is silly.

    gagner
    top 10 PP centre
    Top 3 PK Center
    Top 20 points centres
    top 20 Blocks, hits , takeaways for scoring centres.
    He amd getzlaf the only two.

    The lack of FO % is critical, hence the talk of wing.
    But the rest trade
    Hemsky @ 5M on the wing or Gagner @ 4.5 to 5M
    Fucking no brainer.

  9. Kris11 says:

    LT,

    Wouldn’t Horcoff be tradeable now? His cap hit is higher than his salary, which matters for the low-budget teams like Nashville and Phoenix, etc., who could use a guy like Horcoff.

    I think you need to trade Hemsky for a top 4D, and you’ll probably get one with a similar cap hit. But that alone solves a lot of problems on D, (Maybe you sweeten the pot, if a good enough D is available.)

    After that, you can trade one of Gagner or Horcoff, but then you need to add a serious center as a replacement, which ain’t easy. Unless you move Hall to C, which would also solve a lot of problems.

    With Hemsky and one of Horcoff/Gagner gone and Hall at C, we get:

    X-RNH-Yakupov
    X-Hall-Eberle
    MPS-Remaining of Horc/Gagner-X
    Hartikainen-X-X
    Brown

    HemskyReturn-Petry
    Smid-Schultz
    Schultz-X
    Potter, Klefbom

    Dubnyk
    X

    You need to fill in the X’s with the Gagner/Horcoff return and UFA’s, with concern about the cap. Doable, but tricky.

  10. VanOil says:

    As passing of the guard view of Oilers salaries.

    Forwards
    Hemsky is holding Gagner’s raise
    Ryan Smyth is holding Paajarvi’s bridge deal
    Belanger is holding the 3d/4th line centers money (Mattias)
    Horcoff is holding Yakupov’s raise
    Gagner’s old pay goes to a #2 Left wing (Niederreiter)
    RHN needs the Cap to go up.

    Defense
    Whitney is holding the new Left D’s raise
    Nick Schultz is holding Petry’s raise
    Justin Schultz needs the Cap to go up.

    Goalies
    Khabibulin is holding both the new backups cash and a big raise for Dubnyk if he earns it by winning a playoff series.

    As long as we don’t go big game hunting for players like Weber and our D pipeline produces the odd player we should be OK. A cap jump back to 70M after one tight year seems to be on the cards until everyone gets bored with endless un- winter un-classics.

  11. Thinker says:

    I don’t understand hall to c. Take your only top 10 scorer, put him in an uncomfortable situation, and decimate the left side. Why? Shits and gigs? Keep the only line that works together and grab some cheap pieces for the bottom 9. I also think the time to trade hemsky has passed. He is going to become cheaper after next year, and he has always been good defensively. Keep him for the 3-line so that you have an extra top six forward, and a quality player . The way I see it:
    Hall rnh eberle
    Xxx(bigger ufa) gagner yakupov
    Paajarvi xxx(hopefully monoghan) hemsky
    Hartikainen horcoff jones
    Lander brown

    Xxx jschultz
    Xxx petry
    Smid schultz
    Fistric

    Dubnyk (i see him as a moog, 1A)
    Xxx

  12. boopronger says:

    For the 2013 season

    Gagner – 38 points in 48 games
    Wellwood – 15 points in 39 games

  13. Ribs says:

    The discounts have to start somewhere. I had hoped they’d get Hemsky at a lower price and now it’s biting them in the ass. If Gagner wants to stick around, he needs to play ball.

  14. VanOil says:

    If the price of Tanev is only a second round pick, as suggested by Canucks fansite http://canucksarmy.com/2013/5/16/chris-tanevs-next-contract

    Offer our top 2nd round pick and add Teubert as a sweetener. We can coke machine and foreign goalie hunt in the 5th and 6th rounds.

  15. leadfarmer says:

    Why would you buy Horcoff. Even if you dont want him and cant give him away for free, you can always trade him for a 7th and retain a million on his contract. I’m sure some team that has plenty of cap space or trouble hitting the floor would take him for 3mil and 2 mil over next two years. Sure 91 can ask for a raise, give him another $100 000. He is not worth 2 million right now and I hope Maclowhowsollini negotiates well. 89 4.5 mil would be my upper limit. Sign him for 3 years, and draft his replacement this summer. If he improves keep him in the future, if he doesnt trade him.

  16. rickithebear says:

    leadfarmer:
    Why would you buy Horcoff.Even if you dont want him and cant give him away for free, you can always trade him for a 7th and retain a million on his contract.I’m sure some team that has plenty of cap space or trouble hitting the floor would take him for 3mil and 2 mil over next two years.Sure 91 can ask for a raise, give him another $100 000.He is not worth 2 million right now and I hope Maclowhowsollininegotiates well.89 4.5 mil would be my upper limit.Sign him for 3 years, and draft his replacement this summer.If he improves keep him in the future, if he doesnt trade him.

    this has allways made sense for hemsky and Horcoff.
    We have the ability to pay salary the next two years.
    Question is identify who can use that situation.

    VanOil thanks for laying out the dollar holds!

  17. russ99 says:

    Horcoff is going to be an interesting story this summer.

    I’d love for the Oilers to find a trade suitor, and if nothing looks good, buy him out – but timing’s not going to work that way.

    Buyouts need to be done by June 30, and Horcoff switches from NTC to 10-team limited NTC on July 1st.

    IMO, Belanger & Smyth are better bets for buyout (only one season left on contract) and if we can’t make a deal dumping Horc in July, keep him for 4th line duty (salary goes down from $6 to $4M) and find a buyer at the deadline.

    BTW – his trade protection is gone next July and he’s due a $3M salary the last season of his contract in 14-15, so by then he’ll be very tradeable if we need the cap room.

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