SHAWN HORCOFF RE 12-13: THE PRICE YOU PAY

One day, all of these kids are going to look back and thank Shawn Horcoff. I don’t know where he’ll be then, but he won’t be captain of the Edmonton Oilers when the good times get here.

Shawn Horcoff 10-11

  • 5×5 points per 60: 1.47 (6th among regular forwards)
  • 5×4 points per 60: 4.99 (1st among regular forwards)
  • Qual Comp: toughest among regular forwards
  • Qual Team: best available teammates among regular forwards
  • Corsi Rel: 7.0 (4th best among regular forwards)
  • Zone Start: 50.6% (7th easiest among regular forwards)
  • Zone Finish: 46.6% (13th best among regular forwards)
  • Shots on goal/percentage: 78/11.5% (5th among F’s but DNQ)
  • Boxcars: 47gp, 9-18-27
  • Plus Minus: -1 on a team that was -52

Shawn Horcoff 11-12

  • 5×5 points per 60: 1.04 (9th among regular forwards, 299th in NHL)
  • 5×4 points per 60: 3.20 (7th among regular forwards)
  • Qual Comp: toughest among regular forwards
  • Qual Team: 5th best available teammates among regular forwards
  • Corsi Rel: -1.0 (7th best among regular forwards)
  • Zone Start: 43.9% (2nd toughest, 13th easiest among regular forwards)
  • Zone Finish: 45.4% (11th best among regular forwards)
  • Shots on goal/percentage: 123/10.6% (6th among F’s)
  • Boxcars: 81gp, 13-21-34
  • Plus Minus: -23 on a team that was -26

Shawn Horcoff 12-13

  • 5×5 points per 60: 1.34 (9th among regular forwards)
  • 5×4 points per 60: 3.13 (8th among regular forwards)
  • Qual Comp: 8th toughest among regular forwards
  • Qual Team: 8th best available teammates among regular forwards
  • Corsi Rel: -4.4 (10th best among regular forwards) (-13.77 CorsiON)
  • Zone Start: 42.1% (4th toughest, 12th easiest among regular forwards)
  • Zone Finish: 45.2% (14th best among regular forwards)
  • Shots on goal/percentage: 41/17.07% (2nd among F’s>40 shots)
  • Boxcars: 31gp, 7-5-12
  • Plus Minus: +8 on a team that was -15
  1. What do these numbers tell us? He’s no longer facing the toughs, and that’s news. The offense didn’t come back like one would have wanted, and he got PP time and had a solid to amazing shooting percentage. Part of that could be linemates, but brother Horcoff’s offense is going away as each season goes by.
  2. Did he play a lot on the PP? He was the same on PP and PK as a year ago, a little less at even strength. They’re chipping away at his ice time slowly but surely, and with Nuge and Gagner ahead of him that trend will continue. I could see a day when they play Horc on the wing, falls in line with MacT’s “we have a lot of centers” philosophy.
  3. Lots of faceoffs? Third on the list this time, behind Gagner and the Nuge. 49% overall, not his best but miles better than the kids.
  4. Two more seasons at a 5.5M cap hit. They’ll never get rid of him. I’m sure the Oilers could deal him if it came to that, he’s a $4M salary in 13-14 and then $3M the following year. I think they keep him at least another year.
  5. The Oilers were crappy when he was hurt. True, Horcoff is one of those veterans who can settle down a line. He was also in some good luck (shooting percentage, plus minus) but it was nice to see him getting a few cheers along with the boos.
  6. You always talk about Smyth’s career after he retires from the game, but Horcoff would be a better candidate for coaching or the front office. Agreed. Horcoff seems to have a lot of things going for him. Good point.
  7. Why this song? As with all of the players we’re talking about, Springsteen has about 20 songs that could work. I thought of ‘Stolen Car’ because the hero of the song is trapped, or The River or Fade Away–pretty much the entire River album applies. The Price You Pay is about making decisions, paying for them–good and bad–and not really thinking about how many decisions you make in youth that have massive implications as you grow older. It’s true for all of us, and I’m not suggesting Horcoff would have turned down the money or left via free agency–but those decisions come at a price and you pay for it. The marker comes due, for millionaires and normal men.
  8. He’s an excellent captain. I think so, also think he’ll step down over the summer.
  9. WHAT? I think this is the summer Edmonton makes the shift, they’ll move one of Hall or Eberle into that role. Maybe they wait another year but this seems like the time to make the change and turn north.
  10. What will his role be next season? More of the same. Mentor the next group: Paajarvi, Hartikainen, probably Rajala, Pitlick. Since 2010 fall, pretty much every forward has been helped along by Horcoff in one way or another. I think he’s been a leader in this way.
  11. Why isn’t Horcoff a popular player? I think it’s the money. Last year, it was “all that money for -23″ and this year it’s about the offense. I know why salaries are public and don’t want to go back, but it does make players a target when this sort of thing happens.
  12. How will he be remembered? Depends on your point of view. Some will remember the contract, the feet of clay and the missed opportunities goalmouth. Some will remember the blocked shot (with his face) in Detroit, answering the bell even on those nights when all was lost during the anthem, and the fact that he was the best “dirty work” option on the team for a long time.
  13. You always liked him. From the first time I saw him mark his man, gain position and ride him out of the play as a perfect pass zipped through the slot, fall 2000 TC. I’ll be writing a ‘Sail on, Trail Smoke Eater’ sooner than later, but I’ve enjoyed watching Shawn Horcoff play hockey. Very much.
  14. It’s been a tough climb for him since the Oilers traded Pronger. It’s the price you pay.

when harry

The Lowdown with Lowetide is on Team 1260 at 10 this morning. It’s the Friday edition, so we’ll have a little fun and some open line. Scheduled to appear:

Hope you can tune in, plenty of Oiler talk too.

 

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25 Responses to "SHAWN HORCOFF RE 12-13: THE PRICE YOU PAY"

  1. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    I think Horcoff authored two good stories this year almost by accident and we’ll be feeling their impact for years to come.

    1) When he went down two things came into glaring relief to the punters not paying careful attention to the team but constantly shouting about it: a) Horcoff matters to this team, a lot; b) management is hopelessly incompetent.

    It was nice to hear the commentariat take notice of Horcoff’s worth and finally appear to turn on the mgt. in full force.

    2) When Yakupov, gleaming with smiles, said “I love playing with my captain” he accomplished 3 things: a) He further endeared himself to the fanbase; b) he reminded everyone that Horcoff, surrounded by these talented kids, is important; c) he contributed to the critical MacT fund “Yakupov is a good teammate”

    That third item is probably the most important longterm, but there is something special about watching this brash Russian kid (a guy people can’t seem to help themselves from imposing negative attributes on) show he not only gets the chain of command, he thrives under it.

    ———–

    “What will his role be next season? More of the same. Mentor the next group: Paajarvi, Hartikainen, probably Rajala, Pitlick. ”

    This piece LT… gave me pause.

    This season we’re going to see not only Rajala, but Pitlick in Oiler silks?

    A bit of a stretch, no?

  2. Lowetide says:

    Rom: After Rajala’s season, I can’t see how you don’t give him a full shot in the fall. As for Pitlick, he’s a guy the club will have a long look at if he can stay healthy and post some numbers in OKC. I’m not saying they’ll play 50 games, but suspect both with get called up at some point next season

  3. Racki says:

    I’ve always liked Horcoff. I’m not sure if he magically lifted the team out of the ashes briefly when he returned this year, but it did seem that way. I think he still could have value on the team. He centered Hall and Yakupov and what appeared to also be Yakupov and Paajarvi in the final games and looked good. I think he could still slot in with 2 of the 3 and look fairly good.

    That said, there is a lot of room on this team for improvement and they may have to move him (I think he can be moved) in order to move this team forward.

  4. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Lowetide:
    Rom: After Rajala’s season, I can’t see how you don’t give him a full shot in the fall. As for Pitlick, he’s a guy the club will have a long look at if he can stay healthy and post some numbers in OKC. I’m not saying they’ll play 50 games, but suspect both with get called up at some point next season

    Cool.

    Rajala I figure has earned a strong cup of joe, but figured the Oil may not give it to him based on his size. Still though, I expect to see him in the NHL somewhere next year for a limited time.

    Pitlick I thought would be a much bigger stretch to be honest. I guess it all depends on whether he can put up some crooked numbers… that is probably what makes the call-up seem so far away… how likely is that?

  5. DBO says:

    Horc is a solid 3rd line centre and mentor. Don’t look at cap when thinking of what he brings. For cap reasons he may go in 2014 but right now he is desperately needed.

    Side note, was anyone listening to Rishaug on 1260 yesterday or this morning? My online feed cut out just as he was telling us the offer for Hemsky at the deadline. Did anyone hear it?

  6. Jordan says:

    I like Horcoff for a lot of the same reason’s I loved Jason Smith when he was with the Oilers.

    He did everything he could to help the team. He led by example. He took responsibility, and never blamed anyone else for failure. And he did it all with a (usually broken) smile.

    Now, the OT stuff…

    Lots of talk out of MON now that they’ve been eliminated – huge story line there about their small weak D corps. Lots of talk about moving players to get bigger back there. Anyone’s name outside of Subban mentioned as moveable, but I can’t help but think that for the right pieces, PK would move too.

    If the Oilers need a top pairing d-man… it seems feasable to target a team that is looking to re-work its backend. Looking at the BTN numbers for the season and the playoffs… He looks quite competant. Gorges does too for the regular season, but his playoffs… ugh…. not so much. Did anyone who watched more than a couple minutes see why his game fell apart in the post season?

  7. LMHF#1 says:

    If the Oilers are serious about having a competitive training camp with a talented roster of forwards from line 1 to line 4, not only will Mr. Rajala get a full shot, but this guy I’ve heard a little about named Linus Omark would be there as well. (it’s a smart move whether he makes the team or other teams know he can be obtained and is in NA. I’m pretty sure if they evaluate on play, he makes the team).

  8. Lois Lowe says:

    If the Oilers are doing the Detroit model, then Rajala only sees about 10 games next season in the NHL. He can continue to ripen in the AHL with little detriment.

  9. bookje says:

    Shawn Horcoff is Shawn Horcoff and to different people that means very different things. I don’t think it will ever be settled. It’s been a long road for those of us commenting and blogging, imagine what it has been like for him. With that said, as LT says, for $5.5 million per year, I would gladly be Shawn Horcoff.

    I hope he remains a part of the team over the next two years and gets to enjoy them with a couple of good playoff runs.

  10. cc says:

    Salary cap permitting I think that Horcoff could play out his contract with the Oilers. The Oiler’s organization is extremely, to a fault, loyal. And Horcoff has been an excellent soldier for this team.

    I know that 5.5 cap hit is crazy, but his base salary is 3 million. They will need to somehow budget in the neighbourhood of 6 million for Yakupov when they extend him. Keeping Horcoff in the fold until Yakupov’s entry level deal is up kinda makes sense. At the end of the deal Horcoff will be 36 and I could see him signing 1 year contracts until he retires and play in the bottom 6, again mentoring kids along they way.

  11. Buddy says:

    cc:
    The Oiler’s organization is extremely, to a fault, loyal.

    You must be new to Edmonton. With ex-boys-on-the-bus in management, obviously, yes. With players, not so much.

  12. Rondo says:

    I’m sure Lowetide is going to question Corey Pronman on this ranking

    http://www.hockeyprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=1522

    29. Curtis Lazar

  13. Lowetide says:

    Rondo:
    I’m sure Lowetide is going to question Corey Pronmanon this ranking

    http://www.hockeyprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=1522

    29. Curtis Lazar

    I think that’s where he had him or close to last time. I love Pronman’s list, he isn’t guessing at where they’ll go just putting them in order of his preference. Corey isn’t saying he’s going to be drafted there, he’s saying that is where he should go.

    I have no problem with that.

  14. Нинтендо⁶⁴ says:

    Rondo,

    80. Tyler Hill

    Taylor vs. Tyler! If only Steve had kept the 3rd round pick.

  15. Hammers says:

    Romulus Apotheosis,

    Wouldn’t mind seeing that whole line as our 4th Rajala , Lander , Hartski especially if McT adds 2 character players with the guts & smarts in top 9 .

  16. Rondo says:

    Lowetide,

    What I meant was I thought you thought that Lazar would fall into the 10-15 spot.

    Maybe this is for another article but here goes

    Realistically it sounds like Oilers picking in the 7th spot will have a chance at Monahan, Lindholm or Nichushkin. Do you have a preference between these players.

  17. Doug McLachlan says:

    Rondo: Lowetide, What I meant was I thought you thought that Lazar would fall into the 10-15 spot.Maybe this is for another article but here goesRealistically it sounds like Oilers picking in the 7th spot will have a chance at Monahan, Lindholm or Nichushkin. Do you have a preference between these players.

    I believe LT would order them as you have Monahan, Lindholm and then Nichushkin. I seem to recall that Desjardain’s NHL conversions would have them at 33, 30, and 30pts in that order – though I believe he has more confidence in his OHL conversions than either SEL or KHL.

    Personally, I am very intrigued by the 6’4″ Russian with the slick hands. I really feel that the “Russian” factor is impacting his rankings and potentially his draft order. Recall, if you will, that there was concern that Yakupov wouldn’t show for the Oilers either. Anyone thinking we should have tossed his jersey back and made a different selection last year? If Stu McGreggor has Nichushkin at the top of his list – draft the kid and take another potentiall #1 overall to the bank.

  18. fifthcartel says:

    Would Columbus trading up from 14 + LAK or NYR first be a reasonable scenario? Even though I’m still against moving down.

    Then Edmonton gets Lazar and another D prospect.

  19. Rocknrolla says:

    Man… Shultz the younger looks awfully good with Stamkos and Giroux at the WC on the PP…Great experience for him to be playing with these guys. He’s probably dog tired and on fumes, but a nice way to end his season. Great things are ahead here…

  20. VanOil says:

    In honor of a good old guy like Horcoff some young gun moves for the summer. All requiring 3 for 1 deals freeing up Blue Line space in OKC.

    2013-2014
    Hall-Nuge-Eberle
    Niederreiter-Gagner-Yakupov
    Paaravi-Horcoff-Matthias
    Hartikienen-Lander-Smith/Brown
    #7 Pick in AHL

    Staal-Schultz Jr
    Pettry-Smid
    Kelfbom-Schultz Sr
    Fedum-Potter

    Mattias to play center when Nuge is injured or when Gagner can’t win a draw, 2nd and 3d lines to be run as a blender.

    3, 3 for 1 Moves to get there:
    Rajala , Anaheim’s 2nd round pick, Teubert to NYI for Niederreiter
    2014 2nd round pick, Omark, Belanger to FL for Matthias RFA rights
    Hemsky, Bigos and Moroz to NYR for Mark Staal possibly eating 1m of Hemsky’s salary.

    2014-2015
    Niederreiter-Nuge-Eberle
    Hall-2013 #7-Yakupov #7 wins Calder – Matthias takes own zone draws for him
    Paajarvi-Gagner-Matthias
    Hartikienen-Lander-Old Vet/Prospect

    Kelfbom-Schultz
    Staal-Maranchin
    Petry-Smid
    Fedum-Smid-Simpson-Germat

  21. hockeyguy10 says:

    VanOil,

    Staals career could be over. He played 1 game and is going to miss his second in a row now because he still has blurred vision. Pass.

  22. VanOil says:

    hockeyguy10,

    Such a shame. I was not aware he took another knock the the noggin.

    Maybe Kulikov from Florida could replace him on my list as he is still young and i am feeling old just watching the playoffs.

  23. Cameron says:

    Doug McLachlan: I believe LT would order them as you have Monahan, Lindholm and then Nichushkin.I seem to recall that Desjardain’s NHL conversions would have them at 33, 30, and 30pts in that order – though I believe he has more confidence in his OHL conversions than either SEL or KHL.

    Personally, I am very intrigued by the 6’4″ Russian with the slick hands.I really feel that the “Russian” factor is impacting his rankings and potentially his draft order.Recall, if you will, that there was concern that Yakupov wouldn’t show for the Oilers either.Anyone thinking we should have tossed his jersey back and made a different selection last year?If Stu McGreggor has Nichushkin at the top of his list – draft the kid and take another potentiall #1 overall to the bank.

    I believe you are mistaken Doug, the NHLE for Lindholm was identical to Barkov, 40pts, and as a result the order would be; Lindholm, Monahan, Nichushkin. I fear that the most likely order of draft will be;

    1. Jones
    2. Drouin/MacKinnon
    3. MacKinnon/Drouin
    4. Barkov
    5. Lindholm/Nichushkin/Nurse
    6. Lindholm/Nichushkin

    7. Monahan/Nurse

  24. dangilitis says:

    I’ll never forget a toothless Smyth feeding Horcoff for the triple OT goal against SJS with backs against the wall in Game 3. Also used to live in my building in 2003-04 and was a standup guy from all my encounters with him (including when he acted nicely to my bandwagon friend who was wearing a Flames shirt but didn’t know shit about the team). I still think they can’t afford to keep him past next year and think there’s a possibility he could play for us at a cheaper cost in the future. i think he could play until late 30s because he trains his ass off every summer, that is, unless he is satisfied with his huge payout over the last few years…

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