THE BOTTOM 6F RE: WINNERS AND LOSERS

The Oilers bottom 6–really the veterans–were the problem this past season. Among forwards, who among the 3 and 4 lines delivered enough offensively to be considered a winner based on expectations?

  1. Ryan Smyth 47, 2-11-13 (.277 point per game) RE 40, 9-13-22 (.550 point per game) -13
  2. Shawn Horcoff 31, 7-5-12 (.387 point per game) RE 44, 6-10-16 (.364 point per game) +1
  3. Lennart Petrell 35, 3-6-9 (.257 point per game) RE 31, 2-3-5 (.161 point per game) +3
  4. Ryan Jones 27, 2-5-7 (.259 point per game) RE 41, 7-5-12 (.293 point per game) -1
  5. Eric Belanger 26, 0-3-3 (.115 point per game) RE 45, 6-6-12 (.267 point per game) -4
  6. Teemu Hartikainen 23, 1-2-3 (.130 point per game) RE 29, 5-5-10 (.345 point per game) -5
  7. Ben Eager 14, 1-1-2 (.143 point per game) RE 29, 3-2-5 (.172 point per game) even
  8. Darcy Hordichuk 4, 0-0-0 (nil) RE 26, 0-1-1 (.038 point per game) even

History teaches us that plunges is performance are due to: age catching up; injury; change of role. I think Ryan Smyth’s role did change, but the offense was disappointing. I do think we should expect some recovery offensively from him next season. Horcoff is about right, Petrell maybe a little better than alright, Jones had that eye injury and considering that and his output I don’t think we can get too mad about the offensive output.

Belanger has been a disaster, Hartikainen did not step forward offensively, and we saw that much of that appears to be bad luck (no points for while he was on the ice at evens this season, despite a CorsiRel that was close to even).

Now, before we see how the RE series predicted this group, let’s once again review the top 6 forwards and the RE prediction

TOP 6 FORWARDS RE

  • Actual: 85-131-216
  • RE: 81-128-209

BOTTOM 6 FORWARDS RE

  • Actual: 16-33-49
  • RE: 38-43-81

Incredible. The top 6 outscored the prediction by 4 goals, but the bottom 6 were 22 goals shy of what I posted as reasonable. This won’t come as any kind of news, but Craig MacTavish could be justified in flushing all 8 forwards above and starting all over again.

I’ll look at the defense starting Saturday.

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31 Responses to "THE BOTTOM 6F RE: WINNERS AND LOSERS"

  1. Smarmy says:

    Just one big dumpster fire.

  2. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    “I think Ryan Smyth’s role did change, but the offense was disappointing. I do think we should expect some recovery offensively from him next season.”

    I think whatever he gains back from change of role will probably be lost to age. Perhaps, and then some.

  3. BlacqueJacque says:

    Smyth is turning 38- not 28 – next season, LT.

  4. Lowetide says:

    BlacqueJacque:
    Smyth is turning 38- not 28 – next season, LT.

    If Smyth were 28–on this team–life would be grand!

  5. Lowetide says:

    Hartikainen (Rajala)

  6. speeds says:

    For anyone that’s watched OKC throughout the year, would you say that Rajala is a player that has noticeably been improving throughout the season, or has he been more steady throughout once given the opportunity and ice time after the NHL season started?

  7. Lowetide says:

    Fedun (Arcobello)

  8. Lowetide says:

    speeds:
    For anyone that’s watched OKC throughout the year, would you say that Rajala is a player that has noticeably been improving throughout the season, or has he been more steady throughout once given the opportunity and ice time after the NHL season started?

    I haven’t watched all of the games, but he’s dangerous in every one I’ve seen him in.

  9. Lowetide says:

    Stretch (Rajala)

  10. Kris11 says:

    I think when Rajala was drafted I said something like he looked more like he was drafted to play Dungeons and Dragons than to play professional hockey.

    Prove me wrong, Toni Rajala. Prove me wrong.

  11. prairieschooner says:

    Are you guys just blueskying goalscoring combinations?

    Let me have a go….

    Arcobello (Gernat)

  12. Lowetide says:

    lol. No. OKC is up 3-0 in G5 (and up 3-1 in games) and could win their series against Texas tonight.

  13. OilLeak says:

    Lowetide:
    Stretch (Rajala)

    Oilers drafting strategy should consist of drafting Finns and Swedes only.

  14. jp says:

    Nice to see the Barons poised to move on.

    Anyone know what Lander’s injury is?

  15. RickDeckard says:

    OilLeak,

    Ristolainen at 7?

  16. Traktor says:

    Just looked at the AHL boxscores and noticed OKC has a player with the last name Stretch.

    I went the entire year thinking that was LT’s nickname for Marincin.

  17. Lowetide says:

    jp:
    Nice to see the Barons poised to move on.

    Anyone know what Lander’s injury is?

    Jaw, I think someone said.

  18. jfry says:

    LT, a little surprised how low your RE was for Harti, given how much pump you have for him. with your RE, he’s a marginal prospect at best, yet you seem to assert he’s more than that. And he fell well short of your RE.

    have you re-evaluated your position on Harti?

    Also, thanks for this series.

  19. dessert1111 says:

    Rajala has been offensively dynamic all year, but I’ve noticed improvements in his defensive game over the year.

    I still like Arco more as an all-around player, but Rajala is now a close second, and he is younger. If either was four inches taller and 40 pounds heavier he’d be an Oiler already.

  20. jfry says:

    Traktor live?!!!!

  21. OilLeak says:

    RickDeckard,

    If lindholm is gone, I’d take ristolainen.

  22. OilLeak says:

    dessert1111,

    I’d like to see get Arcobello get a real shot next year too, but if he does it probably won’t be with the Oilers.

  23. Lowetide says:

    jfry:
    LT, a little surprised how low your RE was for Harti, given how much pump you have for him.with your RE, he’s a marginal prospect at best, yet you seem to assert he’s more than that. And he fell well short of your RE.

    have you re-evaluated your position on Harti?

    Also, thanks for this series.

    I took at guess
    http://lowetide.ca/blog/2012/07/re-12-13-teemu-hartikainen.html

    First entry:

    How much will he play? It’s so difficult to read this roster as it now stands. I’m guessing that he’ll get half a job for a full season. If that makes any sense.

  24. nelson88 says:

    I think Lander is actually “lower body injury”

    Thank god for the Thunder and Barons to give us something to cheer about/follow. While there are still some duds it is nice to see a meaningful number of the picks not taken top 10 in the last 5 years starting to find their range. The Senators this year are a great example of AAA success translating into needed depth and major league success.

    Lots of positives ahead for Oiler fans.

  25. dessert1111 says:

    OilLeak:
    dessert1111,

    I’d like to see get Arcobello get a real shot next year too, but if he does it probably won’t be with the Oilers.

    Would he be worth anything in a trade? I tend to agree, but there is some possibility, depending on how MacT re-shapes the line-up and who is still around.

  26. speeds says:

    Another similar question for those that have been watching OKC this year, have you noticed improvement over the course of the season in Fedun?

  27. OilLeak says:

    dessert1111: Would he be worth anything in a trade? I tend to agree, but there is some possibility, depending on how MacT re-shapes the line-up and who is still around.

    It would have to be an AHL prospect for prospect trade. Until Arcobello proves himself capable at producing at the NHL like Conacher did, he won’t be worth much.

    I couldn’t imagine Arcobello or Rajala being worse than the dregs the Oilers dressed on the 4th line this year. A very progressive GM and coach would be required to change the mindset that this organization has had regarding depth players and I don’t know how progressive MacT is at this point.

  28. SK Oiler Fan says:

    Horc and Harti only ones worth keeping for next year. Smyth is done. He looked done 10 games in, how’s he going to handle 82 games?

  29. TheOtherJohn says:

    Any one other than me watching Toffoli’s 3rd period thinking DAMN wish the Oilers had 3 picks in the 2010 draft so that we could steal a player like Toffoli’s. Wait, we did have 3 picks in the 2nd round and selected 2 low scoring AHL forwards with injury problems and a maybe prospect in Marincin.

    Maybe it’s time to cede the “Magnificent Bastard” nickname to LAK amateur scounting head who keeps picking miracles out of his ass!!!

    Toffoli’ scored 37 goals in his draft year (ie Lazar like #’s) followed by seasons of 108 points & 100 pts (in 52 games) and 51 pts. In the AHL this year

    Keep saying it but there is not a lot of evidence of superior draft picks by Edmonton outside of top 10 picks

  30. gcw_rocks says:

    “but Craig MacTavish could be justified in flushing all 8 forwards above and starting all over again.”

    Interesting to reach that conclusion before factoring in cap hit. If you factor in cap hit, the situation looks even more grim. If he had the balls to flush them all and replace them with players like Goc, McArthur, Stallberg, Dupruis, Gordon, or like players, he would have my attention.

  31. dessert1111 says:

    speeds:
    Another similar question for those that have been watching OKC this year, have you noticed improvement over the course of the season in Fedun?

    Absolutely. He looks more confident, but most noticeably perhaps is his offense coming along. He has always offensive in spurts, and I remember right before his freakish injury he looked quite adept at jumping into the play, but post-injury for awhile he looked a little less confident. I would suggest he is OKC’s most complete defender and most NHL-ready as is, but with Marincin’s age and expected trajectory I would think he will pass Fedun by Christmas.

    I don’t know how or when to give them a shot, but it seems like aging prospects like Fedun and Arco (especially the college ones who develop a bit later) need to be given some sort of push at some point or else they are wasted assets. They haven’t shown enough to be worth much of anything, but have shown well enough (imo) that it would be pre-mature to write off NHL careers. Rajala is a bit different because he’s a few years younger, but all these guys will need a shot sooner or later.

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