THE TOP 6F RE: WINNERS AND LOSERS

In reviewing this year’s RE versus actual factual, the difference in results between the top 6F and the bottom 6F is striking. Let’s start with the top 6F and we’ll get to the rest later.

  1. Taylor Hall 45, 16-34-50 (1.11 point per game) RE 39-21-19-40 (1.03 point per game) +4
  2. Sam Gagner 48, 14-24-38 (.792 point per game) RE 43, 11-21-32 (.744 point per game) +2
  3. Jordan Eberle 48, 16-21-37 (.771 point per game) RE 44, 14-18-32 (.727 point per game) +2
  4. Nail Yakupov 48, 17-14-31 (.646 point per game) RE 45, 11-15-26 (.578 point per game) +3
  5. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins 40, 4-20-24 (.600 point per game) RE 42, 13-26-39 (.929 point per game) -13
  6. Ales Hemsky 38, 9-11-20 (.526 point per game) RE 35, 8-24-32 (.914 point per game) -15
  7. Magnus Paajarvi 42, 9-7-16 (.381 point per game) RE 39, 3-9-12 (.307 point per game +3

History teaches us that plunges is performance are due to: age catching up; injury; change of role. For Nuge, we know it was injury. For Hemsky, a change in role (Hemsky’s EV minutes were reduced by 2:30 a game this past season) was part of it, along with injury and some other things the Oilogosphere is sussing out.

The RE for these 7 gents appears to have done a reasonable job of prediction success. As a group total, we get:

  • Actual: 85-131-216
  • RE: 81-128-209

 

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17 Responses to "THE TOP 6F RE: WINNERS AND LOSERS"

  1. doritogrande says:

    If the final number there is the differential between RE and actual, your numbers are not right.

    Taylor Hall is a fun NHL player to watch at 21.

  2. Lowetide says:

    doritogrande:
    If the final number there is the differential between RE and actual, your numbers are not right.

    Taylor Hall is a fun NHL player to watch at 21.

    It’s the RE point per game multiplied by actual GP, and then subtracted from the actual number.

  3. ASkoreyko says:

    doritogrande:
    If the final number there is the differential between RE and actual, your numbers are not right.

    Taylor Hall is a fun NHL player to watch at 21.

    Might want to check your math again:

    Hall = 1.11 -1.03 = .08 * 48 games = 3.84
    Gagner= .792 – .744 = .048 * 48 games = 2.304
    Eberle= .771 – .727 = .044 * 48 games = 2.112
    etc.

    I have to say LT this is damn impressive, however it does expose your long standing loyalty to Hemsky. Looks like we are going to have to start adjusting our perceptions of Ales and even looking at his contract as an overpay. Although in keeping with long-standing Oiler tradition we will be paying him well for his past performances and loyalty!

    Even if he has terrible body language…

  4. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Startlingly accurate LT.

    Grabbo with a pair of really solid shifts. Toronto’s Hemsky. Can’t wait until he’s an Oiler and half the faithful hate him.

  5. Cobbler says:

    RNHs drop in production could certainly be explained by the injury, but I wonder how much the drop had to do with his stated objective of becoming more defensively responsible.

    That certainly shows in his numbers (improved Corsi; more demanding QualComp and Zone Start), which seem to indicate he held the opposition well.

    So both would seem reasonable avenues for the drop in the boxcar. That shot percentage seems a tell on the injury though.

    How much less PP time did Hemsky get this year relative to others?

  6. Lowetide says:

    Cobbler: Slight uptick, about 20 seconds, for 83 on this year’s PP

  7. Cobbler says:

    Hmmm….surprised at that. I guess that doesn’t help explain Hemsky’s lower production.

    I see now going back to your RE post on Hemsky that his 5v4 scoring was quite high.

    Love the RE series of blogs.

    Thanks LT!

  8. hags9k says:

    Awesome job with RE LT! Very accurate. Can’t wait for summer and fall for the 13-14 edition to start rolling out.

    I wasn’t as up in arms about Eberle’s RE as some were, I felt your prediction of a drop back towards the mean was fair enough. But I will say that I rolled my eyes every time you put 83 before 14 on the off season RW depth charts.

  9. FPB94 says:

    Jonathan Drouin with 11-23-34 in 16 playoff games.more than 2 PPG.

    Depending on how he and Mackinnon will play at the Memorial Cup it might shift the rankings.

  10. Captain Happy says:

    FPB94:
    Jonathan Drouin with 11-23-34 in 16 playoff games.more than 2 PPG.

    Depending on how he and Mackinnon will play at the Memorial Cup it might shift the rankings.

    Colorado will take Jones.

    Florida will tale Drouin.

    Next.

  11. FastOil says:

    Thanks for this, your perspective is unique and appreciated amongst the Oiler blogs. Amazingly accurate.

  12. spoiler says:

    FPB94:
    Jonathan Drouin with 11-23-34 in 16 playoff games.more than 2 PPG.

    Depending on how he and Mackinnon will play at the Memorial Cup it might shift the rankings.

    I really really like Drouin. I think he has the most talent of the top 3. Jones has size, reach, strength that Drouin will never have, but I don’t think he has him beat for smarts, vision, hands, skating. I’d probably have to take Jones if I was the Avs, because he looks like he can help a team win in more ways, not to mention give you at least 5 minutes more a night. But damn I like that Drouin.

  13. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    spoiler: I really really like Drouin.I think he has the most talent of the top 3.Jones has size, reach, strength that Drouin will never have, but I don’t think he has him beat for smarts, vision, hands, skating.I’d probably have to take Jones if I was the Avs, because he looks like he can help a team win in more ways, not to mention give you at least 5 minutes more a night.But damn I like that Drouin.

    Not to mention there’s a huge story line for Colorado to buy into with that Jones pick. That’s got “mini Tebow” situation all over it….

  14. Ivan says:

    Wow. LT, you retain the crown of “Most Realist Prognosticator in Oilerville, and Perhaps the World”
    As if there was any doubt. Nobody follows this team as well, as clear-headed, or as consistently brilliantly as you. We are lucky to have you, and I for one appreciate your passion, balance, fairness and plain old fan-ness. Through some pretty tough times, you have always provided the balance, the realistic positivity, and the damn fine writing that keeps me going with this team.
    Outstanding work on the RE, I can’t wait for next season’s series!

  15. Zipdot says:

    Wow, a lot of gushing and praise for Lowetide today…

  16. Hammers says:

    LT the problem is who stays and who goes . Not 1 big tough SOB in the bunch . . The west is tougher & bigger than the east and to move forward we need some of that skilled toughness. My guess 2 of your 7 are gone next year .

  17. frenchfrog says:

    Somehow you predicted Eberle would have a broken thumb to bring his numbers down! That’s skill.

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