2013 ENTRY DRAFT POST 10: WILD TARGET

The Edmonton Oilers are very good at the business of entertainment. A year ago, we were talking about Stu MacGregor’s 5 names (Nail, Murray, Grigorenko, Forsberg and Reinhart) and asking if it was possible they’d select anyone but Nail.

nielson

I think we’ve got the Oilers pick surrounded. They’re going to select Sasha Barkov (if they deal up), Sean Monahan (if he’s at #7) Bo Horvat or Curtis Lazar if they deal down. I don’t think they’ll take a defenseman, and I don’t think they’ll trade down so far they can’t get Lazar.

Bottom line–assuming they don’t deal up or out: if Monahan is there at 7, they take him. If not, they take Horvat, at #7 or later. Book it.

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54 Responses to "2013 ENTRY DRAFT POST 10: WILD TARGET"

  1. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Horvat at 7 is pretty high for the player… did the playoff run fill his sails that much?

    ——-

    sidebar: how much of the draft/UFA playoff boost is due to “performing when it matters” vs and/or simply getting a longer, harder look at a player?

    ——-

    Horvat over Lindholm and the Russian even?

    the wisdom of that move eludes me.

  2. Young Oil says:

    If Monohan is gone, that means that one (or both) of Lindholm and Nichushkin are still available…what makes Horvat a better option than either of them?

    Still hoping they deal up for Barkov though regardless!

  3. Rondo says:

    I think they will make a strong push for Barkov at the draft. At some level I think they know Monahan will be gone before the 7th pick. To get Monahan early would probably be too big of a overpay. Whereas Barkov might be worth it in their eyes.

    I guess you need to make the move on Barkov before Nashville picks. You can’t wait till #7 and see what you have and then decide.
    Should be an interesting day

  4. Lowetide says:

    The only thing I think could happen is someone picking out of turn–which looks like this:

    1. MacKinnon
    2. Jones
    3. Drouin
    4. Barkov
    5. Lindholm
    6. Nichushkin

  5. Young Oil says:

    Lowetide,

    Are you saying thats the only probable situation in which the Oil can get Monohan?

    Not saying I disagree, it makes sense!

  6. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Lowetide:
    The only thing I think could happen is someone picking out of turn–which looks like this:

    1. MacKinnon
    2. Jones
    3. Drouin
    4. Barkov
    5. Lindholm
    6. Nichushkin

    What about a Reinhart possibility? Maybe someone takes Nurse in the 4-6 spots?

    My guess is that Lindholm is the slider of the group and one surprise might be whether the Russian can challenge Barkov at 4.

  7. Lowetide says:

    Young Oil:
    Lowetide,

    Are you saying thats the only probable situation in which the Oil can get Monohan?

    Not saying I disagree, it makes sense!

    Yes. Above I said ‘if Monahan is there at 7′ and that’s how he’d be available. I think Lindholm would be an Oiler if he fell, but don’t believe he will. Nichushkin I’m less convinced will be an Oiler and the other 4 are gone by #5.

  8. Lois Lowe says:

    I take that to mean that the Oilers have selected their targets for a trade up, down to the 9-12 range for Horvat, and the 13-21 range for Lazar. Is that how you see the strategy LT?

  9. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Just looking over last year’s comparison (BM’s list vs actual picks)

    http://www.tsn.ca/draftcentre/feature/?id=9831

    I don’t think we should rule out strange picks in the top 20 (not that we should count on them either… that would be crazy)

  10. Rondo says:

    I see Carolina as the wild card they could take Nichushkin or Lindholm or Nurse. They will have their choice

    Calgary could take Nichushkin Monahan or Lindholm depending on what Carolina takes.

  11. Young Oil says:

    Lowetide: Yes. Above I said ‘if Monahan is there at 7′ and that’s how he’d be available. I think Lindholm would be an Oiler if he fell, but don’t believe he will. Nichushkin I’m less convinced will be an Oiler and the other 4 are gone by #5.

    Thanks for the clarification! I’d be happy with Horvat or Nichushkin, and theres always the possibility of the trade involving the 7th for Gardiner or Couturier!

  12. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: What about a Reinhart possibility? Maybe someone takes Nurse in the 4-6 spots?

    Looking over the BM list I see that he was actually slated to go 4th. In my head I remember that as a reach pick.

    His midseason ranking is 9th:

    http://www.tsn.ca/draftcentre/feature/?id=58415

    Looks like he got the late season/playoff push.

    Man a lot of D went early last year. that will be an interesting thing to track in 5 years… were these good bets? was the forward group slighted with or without cause?

  13. Rondo says:

    LT,

    You should try and interview Dale Hunter?

  14. Kris11 says:

    Nurse could go as high as 5, no? Unlikely, but possible?

    Can also see Calgary going off the board if Monahan if all of the big 4 and Monahan are picked before 6. Calgary has done some weird stuff at the draft lately, rarely drafts Russians, and might prefer someone else to Lindholm, say Ralph Klein or a psychotic koala bear.

  15. Lowetide says:

    kris: Still, Lindholm is significantly above the others in this draft. If Calgary doesn’t want him, they may trade out.

  16. fifthcartel says:

    I’d be extremely happy with any of Barkov/Lindholm/Monahan, happy with Horvat/Lazar, but expecting a trade down or of the pick itself.

  17. sliderule says:

    The only centers left at seven will be Monahan or Horvat
    If Tampa doesn’t take the Russian the only one left will be Horvat.
    I have a feeling that the oil might even rate him higher than Monahan.He is seven months younger and like Monahan a face-off savant and built like a tank.in the games I saw I can’t remember him getting knocked off his feet.

  18. speeds says:

    I think “book it” is overstating things.

    It’s possible they really like Nichushkin or Lindholm, and are just being coy – they could have interviewed them already in Europe, plus again at the combine, without EDM fans hearing much about it.

  19. Kitchener says:

    Center or bust.

    Book it.

  20. Lowetide says:

    sliderule:
    The only centers leftat seven will be Monahan or Horvat
    If Tampa doesn’t take the Russian the only one left will be Horvat.
    I have a feeling that the oil might even rate him higher than Monahan.He is seven months younger and like Monahan a face-off savant and built like a tank.in the games I saw I can’t remember him getting knocked off his feet.

    I think he must have knocked them off their feet at the combine too. Probably wondered about conditioning, must have shown something.

  21. Kris11 says:

    LT,

    Yeah, that could happen. Calgary could want someone they think would go instead of Lindholm, though.

    Stranger things have happened. e.g. the falls of Fowler and Couturier.

  22. Lowetide says:

    speeds:
    I think “book it” is overstating things.

    It’s possible they really like Nichushkin or Lindholm, and are just being coy – they could have interviewed them already in Europe, plus again at the combine, without EDM fans hearing much about it.

    Sure, but this is the internet! :-) Of course, there’s every chance they love Nurse, or the Russian, or maybe Lindholm (which is my hope, suspect yours speeds). However, based on the verbal since MacT took over, I’m betting one of Barkov, Monahan or Horvat is the guy.

  23. slopitch says:

    Ya I think they should draft a C (or move up). They can always use other assets and cap space to fill the many holes. Just can’t trade both Horcoff and Hemsky for futures.

  24. RexLibris says:

    LT,
    So what you are saying is that it appears as though management has evaluated the potential alternatives, crafted a strategy with clear goals in mind, and will apply whichever presents itself at the time of the draft with clearly defined prospect targets already in place.

    That is some crazy talk even for the internets.

    BTW, count me in on the Lindholm camp. Of course, I was in the Seguin camp, Nugent-Hopkins camp, and Galchenyuk camp before that, so really, what the heck do I know.

    Personally, I would love (LOVE) to see MacTavish trade up to get Barkov, if only to watch the expressions of anguish wash over the faces at the Flames draft table.

    ;-)

  25. Halfwise says:

    Lowetide: Sure, but this is the internet! Of course, there’s every chance they love Nurse, or the Russian, or maybe Lindholm (which is my hope, suspect yours speeds). However, based on the verbal since MacT took over, I’m betting one of Barkov, Monahan or Horvat is the guy.

    I loved a nurse once. Actually, all I loved was the idea of loving a nurse.

    Think I’ll have another drink.

  26. cabbiesmacker says:

    I’ll be booking the pick is traded for / as part of a trade for a younger C

  27. Doug McLachlan says:

    RexLibris:

    Personally, I would love (LOVE) to see MacTavish trade up to get Barkov, if only to watch the expressions of anguish wash over the faces at the Flames draft table.

    Love this, but can’t see how he slips to 5 where Carolina creates a bidding war between Calgary and Edmonton while Rutherford nabs the proto-Pronger in Nurse with either 6 or 7.

    Nashville won’t draft Nichkushin but might they prefer Lindholm to Barkov? Is there any WJC chemistry between Fillip Forsberg and Lindholm that I’m unaware of?

  28. Lois Lowe says:

    I wonder if part of MacT’s overall draft strategy for forwards is for an emphasis on Centres. It seems like it’s fairly easy to convert a kid who has play C all his life to the wings in the pros and quite difficult to teach a kid the C position at the pro level. Obviously there is still an argument for BPA, but I have feeling that MacT’s preference is to take Cs.

  29. spoiler says:

    Halfwise: I loved a nurse once. Actually, all I loved was the idea of loving a nurse.

    Think I’ll have another drink.

    11th floor, Mackenzie Tower, Lister Hall… Like a trip up to nurse heaven.

  30. Ryan says:

    The problem with drafting Nurse would be all the material it would give principe. Anyone else seen one flew over the cuckoo’s nest?

    Not sure why, but I’m not a Bruin’s fan. Had something to do with a turnbuckle. Funny how things like that affect some people.

    Seguin’s been a dud these playoffs so far.

    Love quenneville hockey, go Hawks! Clap clap.

  31. Lowetide says:

    Lois Lowe:
    I wonder if part of MacT’s overall draft strategy for forwards is for an emphasis on Centres. It seems like it’s fairly easy to convert a kid who has play C all his life to the wings in the pros and quite difficult to teach a kid the C position at the pro level. Obviously there is still an argument for BPA, but I have feeling that MacT’s preference is to take Cs.

    Agreed. MacT loved centers who played wing, and loved to convert wingers to center. MacT will have all these guys taking faceoffs this fall I’d imagine. Penalty killing, it’ll be a scream.

  32. Henry says:

    spoiler: 11th floor, Mackenzie Tower, Lister Hall… Like a trip up to nurse heaven.

    Is that place still standing?

    Has anyone painted it since 1988? or washed it?

  33. Captain Happy says:

    The #7 and Marincin for Sean Couturier.

    If the Flyers want some cap relief, trade Horcoff (keeping half his cap hit and salary) for Scott Hartnell.

    Trade Gagner and Hemsky and a conditional pick to Phoenix for Keith Yandle and the 12th pick.

    Giddyup.

  34. Kitchener says:

    Henry,

    I did something else in it 2002-2005.

  35. Lois Lowe says:

    Lowetide: Agreed. MacT loved centers who played wing, and loved to convert wingers to center. MacT will have all these guys taking faceoffs this fall I’d imagine. Penalty killing, it’ll be a scream.

    I think a preference for centres over wingers in the draft is also consistent with MacT’s affinity for the ‘big brain’ types. If centre is the harder position to learn and requires a greater in-game awareness, there’s more likelihood that the brighter forwards are going to be found in the middle.

  36. Henry says:

    If the Oilers get an established centre for the next few years do they switch their target to a top defenseman? Let’s say that Sather buys out Brad Richards and the Oilers get him for $4M or so for 3 years. Do they still go after Monahan or Horvat?

  37. slopitch says:

    I have no interest in Richards. We have better PP options.

  38. godot10 says:

    1) The wild card in this draft is if Colorado trades out of #1. That would really shake up the draft, and things would be hard to predict.

    Assuming #1 doesn’t happen, I think the top 4 are pretty predictable.

    Jones, MacKinnon, Drouin, Barkov

    2) Carolina is where it gets interesting. Carolina will trade that pick for a legit top 4 all-around defenseman. This is where someone trades that D to Carolina for Nichushkin. If there is no offer for Nichushkin, then Carolina holds an auction for Monahan between Calgary and Edmonton and maybe the Maple Leafs. MacT might be content with Horvat, so he might pass on the bidding war, because he wants to keep the two 2nd round picks.

    3) If Philly wants Nichushkin (I don’t think they can part with a defenseman to satisfy Carolina), the Oilers might be able to get Couturier with the #7. Philly might prefer Bobby Ryan for Couturier, but he might not be available.

    4) Kris Letang is NOT value for money, and he is not a tough minutes defenseman. Why pay full value for Letang if you already have a future version of Letang in Justin Schultz. The Oilers are going to be playing BIG teams in LA, Anaheim, and San Jose. Letang was useless again the BIG Bruins. He sucked against a big team, even with the two best players in the world. Get cheaper more appropriate defensemen the Oilers need, and just let Justin Schultz become Kris Letang.

    5) Stephen Weiss is almost exactly the age Horcoff was when Horcoff got that big contract. Stephen Weiss is likely on the downslope, just like Horcoff was. The Oilers have been down this road giving 30 something players big contracts. Horcoff, Moreau, Staios, Souray. Weiss’s contract is going to have dollars and terms. It would be a rebuild killer in addition to no value for money.

  39. OilLeak says:

    Lowetide: Agreed. MacT loved centers who played wing, and loved to convert wingers to center. MacT will have all these guys taking faceoffs this fall I’d imagine. Penalty killing, it’ll be a scream.

    This is another reason why Lindholm should be the target with the 7th pick, has played both center and wing, could eventually develop into that 2-way utility forward on the second line. Man, I hope the OIlers don’t pass on the guy if given the chance.

  40. fifthcartel says:

    Agreed on Kris Letang. The Oilers don’t need Kris Letang at 5-7 mill, they need a Kris Letang-like D who is on a ‘bargain’ contract to compete with. Usually though that comes from the pipeline.

  41. franksterra says:

    OT, but fourth period ‘reporting” Bryz and Briere are being bought out

  42. dohfOs says:

    Well hello there (and yes, I’m alive).. Anyways.. For once (with the exception of Klefbom and Samuelsson), I actually hope the Oil select a Swede. Lindholm could be an ace at #7 and even Wennberg might be a solid selection. With that said, I’d obviously pick Barkov ahead of both of ‘em but I very much doubt the Oil will get the chance to select him. Speaking of Swedes, I’d be content with the Oil picking up De la Rose with either one of their 2nd round picks. Some might say he doesn’t contribute enough offensively but I reckon that has more to do with Swedish teams not putting juniors in a position to score (similar to Forsberg). De la Rose has a tremendous upside with his physical and positional game.

    Other than that. I personally know too little abut Horvat to say anything about him.

  43. Woodguy says:

    Don’t discount the OIlers making a big pitch to move up to #2.

    Could be a “WOW” trade.

  44. russ99 says:

    I wouldn’t move Marincin unless the return is quality.

    Kid has shown promise with real improvement throughout the year in OKC should be an NHL player after another year of development in the AHL, plus we could be on to something when a guy of his size fills out.

    The rest of our D prospects haven’t played above junior level or played overseas, and we won’t know what we’ll get until they play in a tough North American league.

    We have good prospects in the defensive pipeline but so were Plante and Teubert, who were even more highly touted than who we have coming up.

  45. gcw_rocks says:

    Someone above, perhaps Carolina, needs to take a d-man or somone’s head scout needs to have a man crush on Lindholm before Monahan falls to the Oilers. Odds of that aren’t great.

  46. Lowetide says:

    dohfOs:
    Well hello there (and yes, I’m alive).. Anyways.. For once (with the exception of Klefbom and Samuelsson), I actually hope the Oil select a Swede. Lindholm could be an ace at #7 and even Wennberg might be a solid selection. With that said, I’d obviously pick Barkov ahead of both of ‘em but I very much doubt the Oil will get the chance to select him. Speaking of Swedes, I’d be content with the Oil picking up De la Rose with either one of their 2nd round picks. Some might say he doesn’t contribute enough offensively but I reckon that has more to do with Swedish teams not putting juniors in a position to score (similar to Forsberg). De la Rose has a tremendous upside with his physical and positional game.

    Other than that. I personally know too little abut Horvat to say anything about him.

    Welcome back!

  47. nelson88 says:

    Woodguy: Don’t discount the OIlers making a big pitch to move up to #2.Could be a “WOW” trade.

    Assuming McKinnon falls to #2 would you move Yak and the #7 pick (as the foundation and do what you need to in order to even up the trade) to get him at 2? I love Yak and would prefer to move lesser assets to get an excellent but lesser player in Barkov or Monahan but I think if that deal is on the table I would take it.

  48. Lowetide says:

    I wouldn’t move Yak for MacKinnon. Seriously.

  49. fifthcartel says:

    Arcobello gets signed. Surprised he didn’t go to the SEL.

  50. ashley says:

    godot10,

    Your Letang analysis is excellent save one part: The Bruins aren’t really that big.

  51. Hambone678 says:

    Will Emily Blunt still be available at #7?

  52. ashley says:

    Lowetide:
    I wouldn’t move Yak for MacKinnon. Seriously.

    I was reading draft analysis on other team’s sites a few weeks ago. I can’t find it now, but one blogger had a good article up comparing 2012 & 2013 drafts as if all the players were available in a single draft. After presenting his data he concluded that it would be a coin flip between Yak and Drouin at #1. Then he had all 2013 draftees until pick 7 where he put Galchenyuk and Ryan Murray was in the teens.

    I’m not sure about the authority of the analysis, but it’s interesting to see. Draft experts talked about a large gap between Yak and the rest of the crowd in 2012 which this analysis would confirm. The lottery win was an enormous gift. Thank GOD we didn’t pick Murray.

    I’ll keep looking for the article.

  53. Bag of Pucks says:

    One of the most annoying aspects of the Internet? The ongoing bastardization of the English language.

    Verbal is no more a noun (verbals) than compete is an adjective.

    Note to Millenials: using language like “His verbals emphasize a high compete level” does not make you send trendy. It makes you sound illiterate.

  54. RickDeckard says:

    This whole thing reminds me of Toronto fans in the lead up to last year. They were so focused on getting Grigs or Gally that they were completely blindsided by Rielly. Edmonton is a little more transparent but I am a big believer in the ability of others to be unpredictable.

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