2013 ENTRY DRAFT POST 14: THE OILERS AND THE WHL

The Edmonton Oilers have taken a lot of players from the WHL since the Stu MacGregor era began, and the WHL has delivered Jordan Eberle and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins among the 11 selections. It’s actually incredible to see just how often ‘the dub’ shows up on the Oilers draft list. Here’s the math:

NHL TOTAL PLAYERS/WHL PLAYERS DRAFTED BY YEAR AND TOTAL

  • 2012 NHL draft–211 total players, 32 from the WHL.
  • 2011 NHL draft, 211 total players, 33 from the WHL
  • 2010 NHL draft 210 total players, 43 from the WHL
  • 2009 NHL draft, 211 total players, 31 from the WHL
  • 2008 NHL draft, 211 total players, 37 from the WHL
  • FINAL TALLY: 1054 total players, 176 from the WHL
  • PERCENTAGE: 16.7%

OILERS TOTAL PLAYERS/WHL PLAYERS DRAFTED BY YEAR AND TOTAL

  • 2012 NHL draft–7 total players, 1 from the WHL.
  • 2011 NHL draft–9 total players, 3 from the WHL.
  • 2010 NHL draft–11 total players, 4 from the WHL.
  • 2009 NHL draft–7 total players, 1 from the WHL.
  • 2008 NHL draft–5 total players, 2 from the WHL.
  • FINAL TALLY: 39 total players, 11 from the WHL.
  • PERCENTAGE: 28.2%

The Oilers like the west (an average total would have been 6.5 WHL players per 39 drafted) and one assumes they’ll select at least a couple from the WHL again this season. Here are the top players from the WHL this summer, including re-entries.

TOP DRAFT ELIGIBLES 2013, WHL

  1. D Seth Jones: Incredible prospect, projects as a franchise defenseman.
  2. C Curtis Lazar: Nice range of skills, strong player who provides enough offense to bat high in the order.
  3. D Ryan Pulock: Nice skills, and a monster shot. Can play defense too, a nice 2-way defender.
  4. C Hunter Shinkaruk: Somewhat one dimensional, but that dimension (shooter) is golden.
  5. C Nicolas Petan: I know, he’s very small. Don’t care.
  6. D Mirco Mueller: A wonderful young defender. Size, speed, smarts.
  7. D Josh Morrissey: good speed, excellent at moving the puck and solid defensively.
  8. D Madison Bowey: Puck moving defender with good wheels.
  9. L Morgan Klimchuk: Scoring winger has some nice things.
  10. G Tristan Jarry: If we’re to believe SP, then he belongs here.
  11. R Oliver Bjorkstrand: I love this player. Nice range of skills, great numbers and resume.
  12. G Erik Comrie: 7th best SP in the WHL, has been a prospect of interest for a long time.
  13. C Greg Chase: Nice combination of skill and grit.
  14. D Shea Theodore: Chaos D with real offensive talent. Extremely unlikely to be an Oiler.
  15. D Dillon Heatherington: Mobile defender can close gaps.
  16. R Jackson Houck: Impressive player, physical and skilled.
  17. D Cody Corbett: Underrated 2-way defender.
  18. L Myles Bell: Transformation from D to L had incredible results.
  19. D Eric Roy: Big, mobile 2-way defender.
  20. C Connor Rankin: Two-way forward with speed.
  21. G Brendan Burke: Huge goalie, Sean’s boy.
  22. D Mason Geertson: Big stay at home defender.
  23. R Jamal Watson: Speed demon.
  24. D Spenser Jensen: Stay at home defender.
  25. D Kayle Doetzel: Tough DD.
  26. R JC Lipon: Skill winger.
  27. L Edgars Kulda: I like him, 2-way winger.
  28. D Mitchell Wheaton: 6.05, 225.
  29. D Tyler Lewington: Tough defender.
  30. R Connor Honey: Nice step forward.

Chances are that Edmonton will choose 2 (well, 1.692) WHL kids based on previous numbers. The club’s selections are currently #7, #37, #56, #128, #158 and #188. Will MacT’s input change the WHL bias? We wait.

TRADE ASSETS

Shawn_Horcoff_2012

 

One of the things we’ll need to discuss as we get closer to draft day (and hell if Boston wins the Stanley Saturday maybe this breaks on the weekend) is the ‘asset list’ the organization is willing to move. We’ve heard MacT talk about the untouchable list and he’s also added a defenseman since arriving (Anton Belov)–but beyond that he has no loyalty to any of the roster players or prospects. With that in mind–and understanding that all indications are that this thing is going to get blown up–then who is on the ‘keeper’ list? Who is certain to be part of the future?

  • G Devan Dubnyk (at least for this coming season)
  • D Justin Schultz (possible franchise blue)
  • D Oscar Klefbom (MacT saw him ‘real’ good)
  • D Anton Belov (newly signed)
  • C Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (franchise C)
  • C Sam Gagner (MacT likes him as a player and leader)
  • L Taylor Hall (franchise)
  • L Magnus Paajarvi (allow me this one player–makes no sense to deal him)
  • R Jordan Eberle (he’s an Oilers, that’s it and that’s all)
  • R Nail Yakupov (franchise R)

That’s 10 players–meaning there are 13 available slots for next year. The players NOT included above should be considered possible trade assets who could be sent away. Here there are in terms of actual value (my estimation):

  • #7 overall
  • D Jeff Petry
  • D Ladislav Smid
  • R Ales Hemsky
  • C Shawn Horcoff
  • D Nick Schultz
  • D Martin Marincin
  • D Theo Peckham
  • C Anton Lander
  • D Corey Potter
  • L Ben Eager
  • R Mike Brown
  • L Ryan Smyth
  • C Eric Belanger

That’s a long list of trade assets. MacT has some impressive bags of gold.

 THE LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

josey wales

This morning at 10am, we’re on the air with some great guests. Scheduled to appear:

Your questions and comments are welcome, @Lowetide_ on twitter or 10-1260 text. Hope you can tune in!

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79 Responses to "2013 ENTRY DRAFT POST 14: THE OILERS AND THE WHL"

  1. Rondo says:

    You should ask Cam Moon about Kayle Doetzel he could be Oilers #128th pick.

  2. Lowetide says:

    I will!

  3. RexLibris says:

    Most teams have special areas of interest when it comes to scouting/drafting. There are only so many bodies (and picks) to go around. Another local example is the Flames under Weisbrod who have re-focused their scouting efforts on Eastern-seaboard leagues and the NCAA.

    The Red Wings like to take players from all over the CHL but have shown a propensity to look overseas (Russia and Sweden) or take players in the CHL who hail from across the pond.

    The most encouraging area of exploration for the Oilers lately has been their ability and willingness to take Swedish players as well as a bourgening interest in Slovakia and Latvia. The Slovaks are overtaking their Czech rivals in hockey development right now and while Latvia may never produce a Forsberg or Sundin they have a grassroots hockey culture that rivals Ontario and there are likely to be some very nice players that can come out of there over the next decade.

    As for the Oilers and the dub, I expect their numbers to be high again this year, but with so few picks it might not translate to a great deal of actual bodies – as you say, two perhaps. Barring a trade that returns another 1st or 2nd round pick.

    I can’t wait to break down the picks by region and responsibility for this year and compare it to the last few Tambellini drafts to see if there is a change in player location to go along with our anticipated change in player type.

  4. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    On the WHL and the draft… is 5 years and 39 players an adequate sample size?

    I honestly have no idea.

    But I wonder about contingency in this regard. How likely is it that a bunch of players from the Q or Europe were on their lists but were gone at the time of the pick.

    Or, imagine a scenario where the Oiler list goes like

    34: Q
    35: Euro
    36: Q
    37: OHL
    38: WHL
    39: Euro
    40: Q

    and they are picking at say 40, but everyone below 38 (WHL pick) is already gone. But for the contingency of other teams, they might have picked from a wide array of leagues.

    Of course, the aggregate over five years, suggests there are a lot more WHL players on that Oiler list than my hypothetical suggests. I’m just not sure — absent having a look at the Oilers’ list — how we can know one way or the other.

    ——–

    “R Jordan Eberle (he’s an Oilers, that’s it and that’s all)”

    That’s the kind of typo that deserves some kind of cat meme: “He’s an Oilers!”

    ———

    “L Magnus Paajarvi (allow me this one player–makes no sense to deal him)”

    I’ll allow it, if you allow me Smid.

  5. Lowetide says:

    Rex: As you know, I love your breakdown of the Oilers scouts recently at ON/NHL Numbers. I wonder if part of the change will be in player type? MacT mentioned something about ‘skill late’ iirc and that probably comes from any league as opposed to a specific one.

    There’s a big kid in the BCJHL (Pope?) who I’ve been looking at too, will try to do a tier 2 post before draft day.

  6. Maverick says:

    I know the theme might be the WHL but with Guy being on the show, could you please ask him his thoughts on a OHL player Ryan Kujawinski from the Kingston Frontenacs. He might be a project, big centre but might be worth the risk. As I mentioned earlier if the Oilers had a 3rd, Ryan would be a player I would take a shot at. (plus we need more Ryans on the team) ;-)

  7. wunderbar says:

    So, the Minnesota Star Tribune is saying that since it will be unlikely that the Wild can buy Heatly out because of injury, they’ve listed Tom Gilbert as a potential trade/buyout candidate.

    Call me crazy, but especailly if there is a buyout, MacT should really look at bringing Gilbert back into the fold. That could do nicely to push Klefbom down the depth chart a bit and give him the time in the AHL he probably needs.

    http://www.startribune.com/sports/wild/211926501.html?page=all&prepage=1&c=y#continue

  8. oilgreg says:

    Teams have a history of shying away from small players; maybe there is a chance Petan falls to us in the second round. Or, maybe the Oilers can combine their two second-round picks and move up to grab him.

    He’s small, but doesn’t play like it. I thought he was the engine of Portland’s number one line.

    I agree with the postings from yesterday that said, ‘ Go with skaters in the early going.’ This of course means staying away from a goalie in the second. Goalies from the later rounds general turn out to be as good as the second & third rounders. I count three goalies from 2011 that were not signed after being second or third round picks (including one that the Oilers selected. But…they did sign their seventh rounder).

    If it was me drafting, I’d take one in the six or seventh round each year. You’re bound to hit on one every five years or so.

  9. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Lowetide: There’s a big kid in the BCJHL (Pope?) who I’ve been looking at too, will try to do a tier 2 post before draft day.

    Do you mean the BCHL?

    The same that gave us late rounders Lucic and Benn…. one day maybe Kharia is in that list (one hopes!)

    Do you mean this guy:

    http://www.eliteprospects.com/player.php?player=57035

    looks like there is a Tambellini connection (adam that is)

    http://www.bchl.ca/leagues/newsletter.cfm?page=70385&clientID=1413&leagueID=2393

  10. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Maverick: (plus we need more Ryans on the team)

    It is actually plausible we could lose all 3 this off-season.

    A dangerously low level of Ryans.

    Where’s O’Marra when you need him?

  11. slopitch says:

    Romulus Apotheosis,

    I dont think its plausible we lose Nuge

    MacT is gonna be the busiest man in Edmonton till mid July. The week leading up to the draft especially.

    .

  12. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    slopitch:
    Romulus Apotheosis,

    I dont think its plausible we lose Nuge

    RNH is in the “Ryan-ether.” He doesn’t count. Only the other 3.

  13. slopitch says:

    wunderbar,

    So did we still lose this trade? I wouldn’t want Gilbert back.

  14. skinny65 says:

    Lowetide, not sure if you have talked about this in an earlier thread, but did you check out the analysis of Lazar on copper and blue? Just wondering about your reaction. They said he didn’t have enough offense.

  15. Bushed says:

    LT: Switch Petry with Gagner and I’ll go along with your lists, although only if Smid were to bring back something of at least equal value (assuming MacT doesn’t undervalue Smid and bring back Toby Peterson v2, or Marty Reasoner AKA Joe Sakic, according to MacT).

    I’m thinking that there may be a little “pump and dump” going on with Gagner, especially considering his upcoming contract…

    Other random thoughts:

    If Boston wins, will that affect the team-building model for MacT?

    Last game looked like Boston got away with a few more penalties than Chicago, notably the both-skates-well-off-the-ice hit by Lucic on Toews.

    Rask looks like he’s clearly winning the goaltending battle; Crawford’s been good, but I’d take Rask for my team every time. Chicago also looking a lot less interested in playing the physical game, or maybe overmatched in team depth as well as size?

    I’m hoping MacT will have brass b*lls when he does trades this summer, but if he also has ” some impressive bags of gold” as you attest, I guess that’s even better….???

  16. Lowetide says:

    skinny65:

    Lowetide, not sure if you have talked about this in an earlier thread, but did you check out the analysis of Lazar on copper and blue? Just wondering about your reaction. They said he didn’t have enough offense.

    I think that’s certainly one of the concerns, along with his being used on the wing as well as center. I’ll be talking about Lazar today with Guy and Cam, maybe McCurdy too.

  17. jonrmcleod says:

    Yesterday Stauffer mentioned that he thought the Oilers would look at acquiring “a guy in the American league” who “is an emerging player, a depth centerman.” Any ideas? Johansen?

  18. lance says:

    Last night in Tuuka’s presser he mentioned “all the shots came from the outside”. My biggest issue with hockey math is the whole bit of shot quality. Not all shots are created equal, and this morning I woke up thinking that expressing shot quality in radial coordinates could begin to approximate a seemingly critical variable.

    If the NHL is tracking shot location in an X,Y relationship (I think they are), then switching the data to a radial distance away from the offensive net would potentially produce a single conjugate that could begin to replicate shot quality. Since the largest net opening is from 90 degrees, the shot quality could be (distance_function) x (angle/90) where distance_function is some measure of t – 10 feet or something. Whatever is the highest shot probability distance, maybe 10 feet, distance from that optimal radius would measure (^2) against shot quality, just like angle of opening (or relative surface area).

    But then, speed of pass in, number of defenders (and their distance to the shot line) and velocity and trajectory of shooter (and trajectory of defenders both to the shot line and to the shooter) are all functions of shot quality too. I don’t know how much of this the league tracks.

    I don’t want to post under my old handle anymore. Vishnovsky’s long gone, Lowe’s last presser definitely dashed my regard for the guy, then hearing yesterday that their sales pitch is rudimentary and uninspiring, well, I have way too much personal interest in high-end marketing to be anything but genuinely disappointed. For a business pushing $100M annually and routinely dead last amongst its competition, for them to have any marketing program that is not 4A is so sad actually that like asia, I’m dropping the oil reference; not because they fired another coach, again, but because Oilers pitch to their investors (after repeatedly being DFL) was anything except outstanding.

  19. jonrmcleod says:

    lance,

    I’ve been told that the NHL’s shot location data is unreliable.

  20. jfry says:

    lance,

    get ready to have a few regulars chime in that shot quality doesn’t matter. I disagree with them. Goalies consistently speak to outside shots, vs screen shots vs shots they had no chance on. The verbal speaks to the issue having some weight.

    I’ve always found it funny that a community that thinks offensive zone faceoffs affect scoring opportunities, but see no value in shot quality metrics.

    That said, task looks like the michellin man in net. Feels like his pads got taller and wider for the playoffs. There’s no net to see!

  21. BlacqueJacque says:

    Did the Oilers just dodge a bullet or what?

    Streit gets 4 x 5.25 from the Flyers.

  22. Bar_Qu says:

    Bushed,

    If the league encouraged the refs to call the game at even half the level of the regular season, I don’t think Boston would be as far as they are in the playoffs. They are a great team, but they are really taking advantage of the Hudson Bay rules that is happening right now.

    Its too bad really because overall I think it is a great series, but I would hate for the “Boston Bruins model” to become the new norm for teams to emulate. As if the 90s weren’t evidence enough that it makes for bad hockey (clutch ‘n grab and all that).

  23. Tarkus says:

    BlacqueJacque:
    Did the Oilers just dodge a bullet or what?

    Streit gets 4 x 5.25 from the Flyers.

    A contract like that would have put the Oilers in a financial Streitjacket.

    (Final Streit pun, I promise. For now.)

  24. rickithebear says:

    lance:
    Last night in Tuuka’s presser he mentioned “all the shots came from the outside”.My biggest issue with hockey math is the whole bit of shot quality.Not all shots are created equal, and this morning I woke up thinking that expressing shot quality in radial coordinates could begin to approximate a seemingly critical variable.

    If the NHL is tracking shot location in an X,Y relationship (I think they are), then switching the data to a radial distance away from the offensive net would potentially produce a single conjugate that could begin to replicate shot quality.Since the largest net opening is from 90 degrees, the shot quality could be (distance_function) x (angle/90) where distance_function is some measure of t – 10 feet or something.Whatever is the highest shot probability distance, maybe 10 feet, distance from that optimal radius wouldmeasure (^2) against shot quality, just like angle of opening (or relative surface area).

    But then, speed of pass in, number of defenders (and their distance to the shot line) and velocity and trajectory of shooter (and trajectory of defenders both to the shot line and to the shooter) are all functions of shot quality too.I don’t know how much of this the league tracks.

    I don’t want to post under my old handle anymore.Vishnovsky’s long gone, Lowe’s last presser definitely dashed my regard for the guy, then hearing yesterday that their sales pitch is rudimentary and uninspiring, well, I have way too much personal interest in high-end marketing to be anything but genuinely disappointed.For a business pushing $100M annually and routinely dead last amongst its competition, for them to have any marketing program that is not 4A is so sad actually that like asia, I’m dropping the oil reference; not because they fired another coach, again, but because Oilers pitch to their investors (after repeatedly being DFL) was anything except outstanding.

    I have beat this drum for 3 years1 they are rsistent to it.
    1. You need to include the 7 holes available around a goalie.
    the glove side yields about 2% less success.
    Here for your everyday reference, is a description on what numbers 1-7 actually were:

    1 Hole – located at the corner of the net on the ice on the goaltender’s stick side

    2 Hole – located on the corner of the net on the ice on the goaltender’s glove side

    3 Hole – located on the goaltender’s glove side, near the upper cross bar

    4 Hole – located on the goaltender’s stick side, near the upper cross bar

    5 Hole – located between the goaltender’s legs

    6 Hole – located between the goaltenders torso and the stick side

    7 Hole – located between the goaltenders torso and the glove side

    2. Shot type: there are defined curves fro each shot type.

  25. Bag of Pucks says:

    wunderbar:

    Call me crazy, but especailly if there is a buyout, MacT should really look at bringing Gilbert back into the fold.
    http://www.startribune.com/sports/wild/211926501.html?page=all&prepage=1&c=y#continue

    You’re crazy.

  26. Beaker says:

    You know, its really sad. You know you’re in Edmonton when you are hoping for the Finals to be over with so the off season can get going.

  27. Bushed says:

    Bar_Qu,

    Agreed.

    Chara in particular seems to get special license from the stripes. Seems that being huge somehow negates holding/interference penalties? I don’t get it, even with the “playoff rules”.

    I’m hoping Chicago prevails, but have to admit that, penalties aside, Boston looked like the more determined and more skilled team last game. Too many Chicago players looked a lot less interested in paying the price. It will take more than 4 or 5 guys to win (Toews, Sharp, Keith, Seabrook, Bickell), and Bolland needs to wake up, for a start.

  28. Bar_Qu says:

    Bushed,

    I hoping the absence of Hossa is what kept the Hawks under water last night. I frankly have a hard time believing there was more infractions committed by Chicago last night than there was by the Bruins. Even if a few interference penalties were called I suspect the “layers” Julien is so proud of would be less effective in blocking traffic from Rask. (if not non-existent) But this is all the whining of a person who is cheering for the losing team, I guess.

    OTOH, my son can’t deal with another team losing to the Bruins. He’s already gone to pieces 4 times with them continually winning over his other teams. ;-)

  29. lance says:

    jfry,

    O zone faceoffs, like all faceoffs, seem to matter for about the next 20 seconds. Further, the difference between 45% and 55%, or 6/game (@60 faceoffs/game), effectively affects play for 120 seconds /60, or 6 drives the other way, half of which are broken up in centre ice, so, one drive per game (@20min/g). Seems kinda insignificant regarding quality of a centre ice man.

  30. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Woodguy,

    Concerning your on-going commitment to “naming” adv. stats in an agreeable manner, here’s a very interesting article:

    http://www.newyorker.com/online/blogs/elements/2013/06/psychology-language-power-of-names.html

    an fun quote:

    Beyond their meaning, words also differ according to how easy they are to pronounce. People generally prefer not to think more than necessary, and they tend to prefer objects, people, products, and words that are simple to pronounce and understand. In 2006, my colleague Daniel Oppenheimer and I investigated the performance of hundreds of stocks immediately after they were listed on the financial markets between 1990 and 2004. We discovered that companies with simpler names that were easier to pronounce received a greater post-release bump than did companies with complex names. (I also wrote about this phenomenon for the New York Post.) The effect was strongest during the first few days of trading, when investors had little information about the stock’s fundamentals and were more likely to be swayed by extraneous factors. (We also ran a series of additional analyses to rule out the possibility that the effect was driven by different naming trends across different industries, company sizes, or countries, and the possibility that successful stocks seem to have fluent names merely because they’re mentioned more often in the media.) Even stocks with pronounceable ticker codes (e.g., KAR)—the letter strings that investors use to refer to each stock—outperformed those with unpronounceable ticker codes (e.g., RDO) in the short run. An investor who placed a thousand dollars in the ten most fluently named stocks between 1990 and 2004 would have earned a fifteen-per-cent return after just one day of trading, whereas the same thousand dollars invested in the ten least fluently named stocks would have earned a return of only four per cent. (In the magazine last year, John Colapinto wrote about the virtues of simplicity in choosing brand names.

  31. lance says:

    rickithebear,

    I’m not sure “they” are resistant, first because I don’t believe in they, but second because I’ve never seen anyone able to incorporate holes 1-7 into an equation. Shot probability curves for each location may work, I don’t know what they are or how to incorporate them such that the final tally is intelligible without some secondary understanding of its units. The NFL brought in QB rating a few years ago, I don’t understand what it means other than to say that 122 seems real good.

    When you say: “2. Shot type: there are defined curves fro each shot type” do you mean we can use a formula that measures the difference in shot probability between 1. a six foot break away shot to the 7 hole at 42 mph; and 2. a point shot with a bunch of traffic at 83 mph high glove (3 hole), without saying that the first shot is 7/3 better than the second?

    If so, I don’t know how to do that.

  32. Lloyd B. says:

    lance,

    TSN has an interesting section called game tracker where you can isolate where the two teams shots came from. Last night being generous I count 7 of Chicagos coming from the slot. 21 for the Bruins. So even if the data is not perfect it really shows a great trend. Also interesting to note that a huge number of Chicagos shots came from one particular area out of the slot and near the boards. Low percentage at best. The Bruins had 15 from the paint alone !

  33. lance says:

    Romulus Apotheosis,

    http://www.kabalarians.com/

    Somehow they have figured out a mathematical analysis of names through vowel placement and I don’t really know what all. I know of two people and one corporation that used this and all profess a massive change in their lives.

    Somehow though it involves the zodiac so probably our local astrologer Bruce may need to explain that. I think there may be a fire dance too. Not sure about that.

    Sorry to derail the thread. I woke up thinking about math. And now this.

  34. fuzzy muppet says:

    hmmm, Corbin Knight acquired by Calgary for a fourth round pick. Would you rather have him or Mike Brown??

    Thanks Tambo!

  35. mps91 says:

    http://www.startribune.com/sports/wild/211926501.html?page=all&prepage=1&c=y#continue

    The Oil need to be all over this. An MPS-Brodziak-Clutterbuck 3rd line would be ideal. Fast on the forecheck, physical, size down the middle, good defensively and 3 guys that will chip in ~30 pts.

    Minny is looking to shed salary so will likely want picks/prospects. Perfect fit.

  36. Bag of Pucks says:

    Still finding my way with behindthenet, but is it fair to say Tom Gilbert was the #5 defenseman on Minny based on last year’s stats playing fairly sheltered mins (TOI, QoC, ZoneStart. etc.).

    Is that a fair conclusion or am I missing something?

  37. wheatnoil says:

    fuzzy muppet:
    hmmm, Corbin Knight acquired by Calgary for a fourth round pick.Would you rather have him or Mike Brown??

    Thanks Tambo!

    I thought the Brown 4th rounder was a 2014 pick?

    Either way, if the Flames offered a 4th rounder, then MacT would have had to increase to a 3rd rounder… which he doesn’t have due to the Fistric trade, and he probably didn’t want to trade a 2nd rounder, which is fair. Too bad though, sounded like an intriguing prospect. Here’s hoping he blows off Calgary and doesn’t sign there, opting for free agency.

  38. TheOtherJohn says:

    The Outlaw Josie Wales on day Bruce is on Lowdown. Coupled with picture of John Vernon as Fletcher. Vernon had a great line in movie in response to Senator “don’t piss on my back and tell me it’s raining”. Could certainly hear Bruce use that line. Course Dan George had a ton of memorial lines in that movie

  39. Mr DeBakey says:

    but is it fair to say Tom Gilbert was the #5 defenseman on Minny

    It looks like he had a mentoring role with a couple of younger D-men
    He played just over 55% of his 5v5 minutes with Stoner
    And about 25% with Falk

    Stoner’s G% and Corsi% were both better with Gilbert than not with.

  40. Blackbyrd says:

    We’re friends with the family, but I babysat Connor Honey (#30 on the Dub prospect list) for years. I know he’s a bit of a longshot to ever make the show, but he’s got decent size, some meanness, some skill (although I’ve heard that skating’s an issue), and a hell of a lot of try. Played on a terrible team (Seattle) though. I really hope he gets at least a cup of coffee at some point in the future. His twin brother’s a goalie for Brandon, I believe, but not likely to be drafted.

    …I feel old.

  41. Bag of Pucks says:

    Mr DeBakey:
    but is it fair to say Tom Gilbert was the #5 defenseman on Minny

    It looks like he had a mentoring role with a couple of younger D-men
    He played just over 55% of his 5v5 minutes with Stoner
    And about 25% with Falk

    Stoner’s G% and Corsi% were both better with Gilbert than not with.

    So Gilbert’s the #5 D man in a mentoring role?

    TOI/60 is 5th overall among Minny D
    Corsi Rel QoC is 5th overall among Minny D
    Corsi QoC is 7th overall among Minny D
    Corse Relative is 6th overall among Minny D
    OffZone Start % is 3rd overall

    The above seems to paint a pic of a D man who’s on the bottom pairing, plays against softer competition with fairly favorable zone starts? Is that accurate?

    To clarify, I’m not sure how his D partner(s) or ‘mentoring’ role is germane to his placement on the depth chart? He’s either getting the mins and the tough zone starts/competition or not, correct?

    If yes, and the argument can and probably should be made that the Schultz’s would be a bottom pairing on most teams with proper D depth, it looks like Gilbert and Schultz played very similar roles last year (i.e. bottom pairing vets teamed with young prospects).

    If yes, it would seem we should avoid Gilbert as a post buyout acquisiton as we are seeking Top 4 (or ideally a Top 2) D and not another 5-7 which we have a plethora of?

  42. rickithebear says:

    lance: a six foot break away shot to the 7 hole at 42 mph; and 2. a point shot with a bunch of traffic at 83 mph high glove (3 hole

    Stats vary by individual. but there are average results.

    Shot quality exists and Ryder shows the curves versus average for each shot relative to distance.
    Read pages 1-9 all else is to general.

    http://hockeyanalytics.com/Research_files/Shot_Quality.pdf

    I found an image a while back showing the success rate of shots directed at each hole.
    1 – 13%
    2 – 11%
    3 – 67%
    4 – 65%
    5 – 17%
    6 – 29%
    7 – 27%
    this does not include the 0% locations.

    Man i need to live on Ryder’s site.

    http://www.hockeyanalytics.com/Research_files/Player_Contribution_System.pdf

  43. Gerta Rauss says:

    wheatnoil: I thought the Brown 4th rounder was a 2014 pick?

    Either way, if the Flames offered a 4th rounder, then MacT would have had to increase to a 3rd rounder… which he doesn’t have due to the Fistric trade, and he probably didn’t want to trade a 2nd rounder, which is fair. Too bad though, sounded like an intriguing prospect. Here’s hoping he blows off Calgary and doesn’t sign there, opting for free agency.

    You are correct-our 4th rounder this year was used on Smithson.

    Either way, I don’t think it would have mattered-I think there is a family connection to the Flames(father??) and Calgary asked (and was granted) permission to talk to him prior to the deal. I think this kid had decided he wanted to play for the Flames and that is that.

  44. art vandelay says:

    This blog defines “assets” differently from how I – and most of the rest of the world – does.
    Everyone listed after Nick Schultz is filler, to be charitable. And might be more realistically classified as a liability.
    When autumn rolls around and there are only 3 new faces on the Oilers, I hope nobody acts surprised.
    The hockey world is not lined up to take Edmonton’s junk.

  45. spoiler says:

    Very, very, very OT…

    Snowden stuff has been posted a couple of times here, so I thought I would post a link to Naomi Wolf’s blog and her concerns that Snowden himself might be a NSA Op (a limited hangout or something similar), due to the unusual nature of his whistle-blowing:

    https://www.facebook.com/notes/naomi-wolf/my-creeping-concern-that-the-nsa-leaker-is-not-who-he-purports-to-be-/10151559239607949

    I can also never get MC79′s comments section to work for me, so I’m hoping he sees the link here.

  46. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    spoiler: Naomi Wolf’s

    You might have stopped there.

    Wolf doesn’t offer the world much beyond an excuse for pseudo-intellectuals and professional public academics to bicker with one another about buzz words.

    For the schadenfreude, though, I did enjoy reading the reviews of her latest work:

    http://www.salon.com/2012/09/12/critics_attack_naomi_wolf/

  47. Jesse says:

    art vandelay,

    Hi Art!

  48. Hammers says:

    The main point here I think is we are into a McT rebuild . Doesn’t matter if we think of players staying or being an asset for trading, it is now what McT does . Untill he actually buys out a player , trades a player or a draft pick we will have no real idea of how he views what he has . We all like to guess or use stats but the truth is we don’t really have a clue . Personally i’m OK with that as I think he is the right man for the job . There are 2 GM’s I wouldn’t be surprised to see him make deals with one Gillis his old agent and the other Sather the guy who got him when he came out of jail . Not long to wait.

  49. godot10 says:

    Can’t blame Knight choosing Calgary over Edmonton on Tambellini. Knight is a UFA on August 15. He talked to all the teams who agreed to Florida’s terms for talking to him. Calgary was his choice. If he had chosen Edmonton, MacT and Tallon would have agreed on something.

    Not everything is Tambellini’s fault.

  50. stevezie says:

    Romulus Apotheosis,

    I think she offers some nuanced thoughts on abortion. Though in fairness, pseudo-intellectual would probably not be the least accurate thing anyone has ever called me.

    I won’t even tell ou guys about the least accurate thing anyone has ever called me.

    Is anyone else finding this Finals incredibly boring?

  51. spoiler says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: You might have stopped there.

    Wolf doesn’t offer the world much beyond an excuse for pseudo-intellectuals and professional public academics to bicker with one another about buzz words.

    For the schadenfreude, though, I did enjoy reading the reviews of her latest work:

    http://www.salon.com/2012/09/12/critics_attack_naomi_wolf/

    This was exactly the kind of comment that made me leery of posting the link… one that goes after the author and not the ideas. Pseudo-intellectual indeed. Oh, the irony.

  52. wheatnoil says:

    godot10:
    Can’t blame Knight choosing Calgary over Edmonton on Tambellini.Knight is a UFA on August 15.He talked to all the teams who agreed to Florida’s terms for talking to him.Calgary was his choice.If he had chosen Edmonton, MacT and Tallon would have agreed on something.

    Not everything is Tambellini’s fault.

    This is a valid point. I put up my post before I knew more information about the Knight transaction, though some thought on my part probably would have made it clear that the deal wouldn’t have been made had Knight not agreed to sign there before-hand.

  53. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    godot10:
    Can’t blame Knight choosing Calgary over Edmonton on Tambellini.Knight is a UFA on August 15.He talked to all the teams who agreed to Florida’s terms for talking to him.Calgary was his choice.If he had chosen Edmonton, MacT and Tallon would have agreed on something.

    Not everything is Tambellini’s fault.

    I guess I missed where someone blamed Tambellini here…

    Seems pretty clear we took a swing and a miss. I suspect he took the meeting with EDM as more of a courtesy than an actual option.

    stevezie:
    Romulus Apotheosis,

    I think she offers some nuanced thoughts on abortion. Though in fairness, pseudo-intellectual would probably not be the least accurate thing anyone has ever called me.

    I won’t even tell ou guys about the least accurate thing anyone has ever called me.

    Is anyone else finding this Finals incredibly boring?

    To me pseudo-intellectualism is exactly what Wolf trades in. She glosses over myriad disciplines she has no training in, grabs whatever she can to suit her argument and then promotes her argument as some radical, counter-intuitive insight which promises to reshape established paradigms. Always pitching in the normative frame of high dudgeon.

    Yes. they are quite boring. I blame the bruins and their stifling system. The series, however, is a great deal more entertaining than the Bos-Pit series.

    spoiler: This was exactly the kind of comment that made me leery of posting the link… one that goes after the author and not the ideas. Pseudo-intellectual indeed.Oh, the irony.

    Wolf has a long track record of bs and insipid self-promotion. I feel comfortable ignoring her insights into anything.

    And her theory, such as it is, belongs on Coast-to-Coast AM. It is entertainment.

  54. Good-Natured Locomotive says:

    Lowetide, first time commenting but have been a longtime reader.
    With your interest in David Pope I wanted to gauge your interest/knowledge in another BCHL kid, Jedd Soleway. 6’3, 215, RH shot, overager who finished the season as the top line centre for the Penticton Vees and will be playing at Wisconsin this fall. Could be an intriguing late round project, maybe similar to John McCarron but a much needed RH centre.

    http://www.buckys5thquarter.com/2013/4/22/4254190/bchl-recruit-jedd-soleway-set-to-fill-brendan-woods-roster-opening

  55. jake70 says:

    Thanks to the fellows discussing Naomi Wolf, got her mixed up with Naomi Klein, whose No Logo I have to finish…started it several years ago….put it down and forgot about it..lol.

    I find this finals boring as well. Of course lack of emotional investment can make most things boring. Side note – I would love to see Bettman squirm with a Winnipeg-Ottawa final. NBC would back out of their contract….lol.

    On the WHL players, I assumed (as well as talent) it was to help counter the “Siberia” thing. These WHL players know the landscape and wouldn’t be neccesarily scared off by the chilly prairie winters.

  56. theres oil in virginia says:

    I’ve been looking a bit closer at some advanced stats. I understand that Corsi is blocked shots + missed shots + shots on net, for and against. Missed shots are bad enough, but how can blocked shots possibly count as offense? If anything, they often end up going the other way. Is there nothing better than Corsi?

  57. Woodguy says:

    Bag of Pucks: So Gilbert’s the #5 D man in a mentoring role?

    TOI/60 is 5th overall among Minny D
    Corsi Rel QoC is 5th overall among Minny D
    Corsi QoC is 7th overall among Minny D
    Corse Relative is 6th overall among Minny D
    OffZone Start % is 3rd overall

    The above seems to paint a pic of a D man who’s on the bottom pairing, plays against softer competition with fairly favorable zone starts? Is that accurate?

    To clarify, I’m not sure how his D partner(s) or ‘mentoring’ role is germane to his placement on the depth chart? He’s either getting the mins and the tough zone starts/competition or not, correct?

    If yes, and the argument can and probably should be made that the Schultz’s would be a bottom pairing on most teams with proper D depth, it looks like Gilbert and Schultz played very similar roles last year (i.e. bottom pairing vets teamed with young prospects).

    If yes, it would seem we should avoid Gilbert as a post buyout acquisiton as we are seeking Top 4 (or ideally a Top 2) D and not another 5-7 which we have a plethora of?

    That’s all pretty close to fair.

    You mentioned in a previous post about looking for the site that discusses WOWY’s that site is:

    http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/

    Here is Gilbert’;s page for 5v5 last year: http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/showplayer.php?pid=397&withagainst=true&season=2012-13&sit=5v5

    One cool feature is that is shows you 5v5 TOI together.

    We see that GIlbert played mostly with Stoner, then with Falk.

    Looking at NHL.com and BTN we see that he was probably playing 3rd pairing when with Falk and 2nd pairing with Stoner, so his numbers come out at about a 4.5 overall.

    Gilbert was actually 4th on MIN in overall TOI/gm and 5th in 5v5 TOI.gm

    Gilbert was 2nd PK and 2nd PP.

    Stoner was 2nd PK and didn’t play PP

    Spurgeon was 2nd PK and 1st PP

  58. Woodguy says:

    lance:
    Last night in Tuuka’s presser he mentioned “all the shots came from the outside”.My biggest issue with hockey math is the whole bit of shot quality.Not all shots are created equal, and this morning I woke up thinking that expressing shot quality in radial coordinates could begin to approximate a seemingly critical variable.

    If the NHL is tracking shot location in an X,Y relationship (I think they are), then switching the data to a radial distance away from the offensive net would potentially produce a single conjugate that could begin to replicate shot quality.Since the largest net opening is from 90 degrees, the shot quality could be (distance_function) x (angle/90) where distance_function is some measure of t – 10 feet or something.Whatever is the highest shot probability distance, maybe 10 feet, distance from that optimal radius wouldmeasure (^2) against shot quality, just like angle of opening (or relative surface area).

    But then, speed of pass in, number of defenders (and their distance to the shot line) and velocity and trajectory of shooter (and trajectory of defenders both to the shot line and to the shooter) are all functions of shot quality too.I don’t know how much of this the league tracks.

    I don’t want to post under my old handle anymore.Vishnovsky’s long gone, Lowe’s last presser definitely dashed my regard for the guy, then hearing yesterday that their sales pitch is rudimentary and uninspiring, well, I have way too much personal interest in high-end marketing to be anything but genuinely disappointed.For a business pushing $100M annually and routinely dead last amongst its competition, for them to have any marketing program that is not 4A is so sad actually that like asia, I’m dropping the oil reference; not because they fired another coach, again, but because Oilers pitch to their investors (after repeatedly being DFL) was anything except outstanding.

    Here’s two articles you might find interesting.

    http://nhlnumbers.com/2012/6/26/shot-quality-revisited-a-look-at-the-correlation-between-scoring-chances-and-shot-totals

    http://nhlnumbers.com/2012/7/3/shot-quality-matters-but-how-much

  59. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    theres oil in virginia:
    I’ve been looking a bit closer at some advanced stats.I understand that Corsi is blocked shots + missed shots + shots on net, for and against.Missed shots are bad enough, but how can blocked shots possibly count as offense?If anything, they often end up going the other way.Is there nothing better than Corsi?

    The idea is that if a shot was blocked, a shot was taken, therefore the shooting team had possession and more importantly possession in the attacking zone.

    A better corsi # is a good approx. of possession numbers related to attacking/defending.

    On the specifics of a blocked shot, consider this: is it better to be blocking shots or taking them (at evens)? Better right? So a player with a lot of blocked shots (at evens) indicates that player has troubled gaining possession and moving the puck in the other direction. However, it also means that when pinned down that player is at least doing everything he can to frustrate the other teams’ offence.

    This is Smid.

    he won’t help you turn the puck the other direction or keep it there. But he will help you keep the puck away from your own net.

  60. Bag of Pucks says:

    Woodguy: That’s all pretty close to fair.

    You mentioned in a previous post about looking for the site that discusses WOWY’s that site is:

    http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/

    Here is Gilbert’;s page for 5v5 last year:http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/showplayer.php?pid=397&withagainst=true&season=2012-13&sit=5v5

    One cool feature is that is shows you 5v5 TOI together.

    We see that GIlbert played mostly with Stoner, then with Falk.

    Looking at NHL.com and BTN we see that he was probably playing 3rd pairing when with Falk and 2nd pairing with Stoner, so his numbers come out at about a 4.5 overall.

    Gilbert was actually 4th on MIN in overall TOI/gm and 5th in 5v5 TOI.gm

    Gilbert was 2nd PK and 2nd PP.

    Stoner was 2nd PK and didn’t play PP

    Spurgeon was 2nd PK and 1st PP

    Thanks, this is very helpful.

  61. TheOtherJohn says:

    Spurgeon is a very good player. Moves the puck very well, thinks the game even better. Undersized but would have a place on my D any day. Played K of C in Edmonton. I’d offer sheet him in a heartbeat and with Minny cap situation they’d be in a pickle

  62. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    theres oil in virginia,

    You might prefer fenwick, which excludes blocked shots.

    http://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/2012/7/25/3184137/intro-to-advanced-hockey-statistics-fenwick

    even better is to look at fenwick close #s which takes into account the score, i.e., up or down by up to 2 goals. the idea being that teams function differently when the score is “close”

  63. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: Better right?

    crap. should read:

    “it’s better to be taking right?”

  64. B S says:

    theres oil in virginia:
    I’ve been looking a bit closer at some advanced stats.I understand that Corsi is blocked shots + missed shots + shots on net, for and against.Missed shots are bad enough, but how can blocked shots possibly count as offense?If anything, they often end up going the other way.Is there nothing better than Corsi?

    Someone can/will correct me if I’m wrong, but I believe Fenwick is essentially Corsi, but excluding blocked shots. Corsi gets tossed around a lot, but it’s only particularly useful as a proxy (estimate) for possession by that player/team as anytime a player is shooting the puck, they had possession, whether it was blocked or not. The main idea behind its use as a comparable being that players possessing the puck more than their opponents are more useful/better players than those that have less possession. If actual possession numbers become available, corsi becomes far less relevant, but to my knowledge there is no reliable source for possession data in the NHL to date.

    Personally, I only find Corsi to be relevant to a players value if you’re concerned with a possession heavy style of hockey.

  65. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    B S: If actual possession numbers become available, corsi becomes far less relevant, but to my knowledge there is no reliable source for possession data in the NHL to date.

    lately CBC has been (on occasion) offering simply possession in zone time the way soccer does (i.e., the puck was in the x zone for 28 mins and in y zone for 32 mins).

    this data would be pretty easy to collect and publish… but no one has done it yet.

    I remain pessimistic it will sublate rather than simply supplement corsi.

  66. prairieschooner says:

    Gregor had a guy on from Calgary and asked what value Hemsky might have around the league
    The guy said zero! and that the Oilers should consider a compliance buy out, same for Horc although he felt there may be more of a market for him.
    Gregor let the guy talk but you just sensed that he was stunned by his comment. WTF came to my mind as I am sure it did to Gregor.
    It got me thinking about my time in Winnipeg when our whole street used to put on an annual garage sale and invariably we would end up buying each others unwanted items.
    I think we may see something similar going into a new season.

  67. Rebilled says:

    I expect more trades with Minny(especially) and Colorado now that they’re in a different division.

    Guess Tambo may have burned our bridges with LA at ‘the right time’.

  68. fifthcartel says:

    Hemsky definitely has some value. Horcoff would be the likely buy out candidate between the two.

  69. B S says:

    Romulus Apotheosis,

    Yeah, just saw you answered his, or her (not sure if it’s been verified previously), question before me. I was trying to remember who was showing possession times (haven’t bothered watching much of the playoffs this year), but they haven’t been consistent about it , making me wonder who’s providing the data. I much prefer zone time to Corsi, but it does sound like there’s becoming a massive following for Corsi, and given how slow the MSM was to pick up Corsi, I can just imagine it’ll be some time before a real possession stat supplants it.

  70. theres oil in virginia says:

    Romulus Apotheosis,
    B S,
    Thanks for the responses. Fenwick will be my next thing to look into. I recall seeing here previously the discussion of Fenwick vs. Corsi. I particularly like the idea of Fen Close, as I agree that game situation has an impact on the game. (Example: Up by a goal, you’re going to give up a lot of shots.)

    Rom, the Smid anecdote is good. It’s the counter-anecdote to the Nick Schultz anecdote (which is what got me started on this – Schultz vs Gilbert). Smid blocks a lot; Schultz has a lot blocked (which probably quickly lead to Smid blocking a few).

    I think all blocked shots are not equal. Smid blocks shots down low, which don’t usually change possession, Schultz has shots blocked from the point frequently, which lead to a breakout.

  71. theres oil in virginia says:

    B S:
    Romulus Apotheosis,

    Yeah, just saw you answered his, or her (not sure if it’s been verified previously), question before me.

    Not sure if this can be verified on this platform, but…”his”.

    Someone posted a link to a video here recently which comes to mind (History of The World?), as does Crocodile Dundee: “He’s a Sheila”, or something to that effect.

  72. godot10 says:

    Hemsky has been injured for the last three seasons. He has a big ticket for one more year, in a year with the salary cap coming down 10%. To believe that he has any significant trade value is delusional.

    If he is traded, it is for a 3rd round pick at best, or the Oilers are eating a significant part of his salary, or they are taking back a bad contract in return.

    Hemsky, Havlet, and Heatley…all essentially have no trade value, or in Heatley’s case, negative value.

  73. theres oil in virginia says:

    There’s 25 years between me and this movie, I can’t believe I remember it:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6fzrE8lGJds

    Sorry, it’s a crappy clip, best I could find. Is there an internet version of the “Sheila test”? (I’d pass that test – or are you supposed to fail that test?)
    <-Not sure how to make a smiley face, but that would go here.

  74. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    B S: I was trying to remember who was showing possession times (haven’t bothered watching much of the playoffs this year), but they haven’t been consistent about it , making me wonder who’s providing the data.

    I gather CBC has been crunching the zone time on their own. If the NHL was logging the time you’d think they would publish it rather than give it solely to the CBC.

    Sidebar: there has been a lot of speculation about what stats individual teams use and keep and don’t publish. presumably something like zone time is kept.

    B S: given how slow the MSM was to pick up Corsi,

    CBC has been doing corsi all playoffs so far… they just refer to it as “all shot attempts” rather than the arcane sounding “corsi” (this has been Woodguy’s hobbyhorse for a while… demystifying the names we use).

    When you abandon the name “corsi” you free yourself up to the simple story the stat tells, ie., you are no longer bound to the false narrative that “corsi” offers some secret special knowledge.

    The way CBC pooh-poohed “corsi” vs. how seamlessly they use “all shot attempts” in their broadcasts is an amazing case study.

    theres oil in virginia,

    the article I posted on fenwick is a good starter IMO and it covers fenwick “close”. it is a simple read and not overly complicated.

    http://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/2012/7/25/3184137/intro-to-advanced-hockey-statistics-fenwick

    if you are a visual learner this is a good intro too:

    http://www.habseyesontheprize.com/2013/4/4/4178716/why-possession-matters-a-visual-guide-to-fenwick

    keep in mind — re: not all blocked shots are the same — that these stats (corsi, fenwick) only work with a large sample size. ie., they work by aggregation and in general. particular plays are always going to look like outliers in that context.

  75. theres oil in virginia says:

    Romulus Apotheosis:
    the article I posted on fenwick is a good starter IMO and it covers fenwick “close”. it is a simple read and not overly complicated.

    Thanks, looking at it now.

    I’d take your “particular plays are outliers” one step further, ie. that particular players are outliers (hence, Smid and Schultz), which is where my concern comes from when using Corsi to rank a player’s usefulness.

  76. B S says:

    theres oil in virginia: Not sure if this can be verified on this platform, but…”his”.

    Someone posted a link to a video here recently which comes to mind (History of The World?), as does Crocodile Dundee: “He’s a Sheila”, or something to that effect.

    I’ll take your word for it. I just didn’t want to be presumptuous.

    Romulus Apotheosis: I gather CBC has been crunching the zone time on their own. If the NHL was logging the time you’d think they would publish it rather than give it solely to the CBC.

    Sidebar: there has been a lot of speculation about what stats individual teams use and keep and don’t publish. presumably something like zone time is kept.

    CBC has been doing corsi all playoffs so far… they just refer to it as “all shot attempts” rather than the arcane sounding “corsi” (this has been Woodguy’s hobbyhorse for a while… demystifying the names we use).

    When you abandon the name “corsi” you free yourself up to the simple story the stat tells, ie., you are no longer bound to the false narrative that “corsi” offers some secret special knowledge.

    The way CBC pooh-poohed “corsi” vs. how seamlessly they use “all shot attempts” in their broadcasts is an amazing case study.

    I realize that it’s “all shot attempts” on CBC, I just mean that Corsi has been around for a while now, but TSN and CBC only started using it this season (under any name). I just suspect that if someone were to come up to them and say “hey, what if, instead of Corsi we just track their possession time with the puck” most of them (Healy, Stock, Ward, and even the Elliotes and Mackenzies) would just bear down and start growling incoherently as their tiny brains tried to comprehend that the stat they spent all year trying to understand could be replaced by a much simpler (but more difficult to track) statistic.

    Re: stat usage by teams, I suspect that most teams are still using Nielson numbers or some similar stat line (scoring chances for vs against) as their main statistical estimation of player skill and quality. Krueger did this, and I would expect Eakins to rely on it as well (one of the many reasons I’m not convinced by the value of this coaching change).

  77. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    B S,

    For sure. Throughout the year I noted when they pulled this “all shot attempts” and it was very rare. During the Playoffs they’ve been using it more. But it is still a new, novel thing for them. The tide is turning though.

    Bruce would have greater insight into what the teams themselves keep track of since he’s on that advisory committee… maybe not, I’m just guessing. But he’s probably under some non-disclosure ban.

    I would guess they track scoring chances on their own for sure and may even get as complicated as Tarasov numbers.

  78. lance says:

    I’ll launch a guess that most networks have access to numbers guys who are at least as smart as me. For instance they could pay off a math prof at the U of T to look it over and then give them a quick class. I’ve never been overwhelmed by the inherent quality of the metric as a measure for player performance because I didn’t think it captured enough data to make the data point legit. Seemed like a series of wrong answers, albeit a really long series.

    While its interesting to correct the data points by including a measure of shot quality, it doesn’t become a purist’s science remotely, yet I think it can be significantly better. If we can better express the value of each event then over large sample sizes analyze improved data, our math will better approximate.

    Ricki I started reading those papers then a little nap. Prior, however, I noticed your percentile assessment says that high blocker has a 67. I don’t think it means of all shots directed high blocker, 67% go in. But I certainly like the idea of assessing the relative probability of each hole for each shot.

    A right handed shot from the right side, at 17 km/h (instanteous speed at point of release aleveing any requirement to include rate of change) with a trajectory at -23 degrees to the y axis (x = goal line) shooting high blocker (across the RH goalie) would have a lower percentage than Taylor Hall streaking down the left wing with a trajectory down into the corner because one is making the relative hole surface area bigger (Hall), and the other makes the cross sectional area of the target smaller, and with a goalie who is late to react to change, the first shot has almost no chance of going in (as the skater moves away from the slot). Whatever the case, if we knew trajectory and velocity at the point of release, we could measure all that madness then weigh each variable at our discretion.

    I think shot quality has to measure other underlying factors on the ice and give each factor a relative weight. For instance, a shot from the blue through traffic is obviously better than the dump and change shot from the blueline. Same shot, same speed, same location, but totally different probabilities of success. If we can find a means to incorporate these variables and then each mess with the relative weights of each function, then I think there is a chance to upgrade these shot metrics to the point where the math guys at TSN are intrigued.

    Is there any chance that this site or nhlnumbers or someone could create a spreadsheet forum that discusses only math, (no trade proposals) and doesn’t roll daily? I think we lose a lot of valuable ideas in these comments because no one can see them all together. I’d love to be able to propose a formula in a cell, copy the cell down, then let others see my idea as an overlay to someone else’s spreadsheet.

  79. Zack says:

    I would look into Patrik Bartosak if I were the Oilers scouting staff, another over ager, who plays for the Red Deer Rebels, could probably scoop him up in the later rounds.

    GAA: 2.26
    SV%: .935
    W/L: 33-14
    SO: 5

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