2013 ENTRY DRAFT POST 19: TOP 30 (3.0)

We’re basically one week away from the 2013 Entry draft. As time ticks down it becomes obvious this entry draft will have two Oilers focus points: adding NHL talent (via trade) and adding prospects for the future. The Oilers may draft at 5, 7, 10, 13, 20, or maybe their first selection will be 37. The phrase ‘they’re going to get a great prospect’ may not apply this season to the Oilers.

  1. L Jonathan Drouin: Just like Propp in 1979, it’s the winger who pushes the offense.
  2. C Nathan MacKinnon: Impressive player, terrific Memorial Cup probably gets him #1 overall.
  3. D Seth Jones: It seems he’s falling, but what an exceptional talent–who will be motivated.
  4. C Sasha Barkov: Impressive in all areas. Complete range of skills and high end in most.
  5. C Elias Lindholm: Quality offensive player, is getting overlooked based on rankings I’ve seen.
  6. L Valeri Nichushkin: A man among boys, scoring winger with an explosive quality.
  7. C Sean Monahan: Two-way C whose offense may be underrated by some.
  8. D Rasmus Ristolainen: Very little negative, across the board talent.
  9. D Darnell Nurse: He’s an excellent prospect, 2-way guy with plenty of room to grow.
  10. C Bo Horvat: Two-way C, lacks high end offense. Horvat may succeed on 2 or 3line.
  11. C Curtis Lazar: Scoring C who may end up being a winger. A load, skilled.
  12. D Ryan Pulock: Defender can do it all, plus shot.
  13. C Max Domi: Skilled C with pluck. Offense is very good.
  14. C Hunter Shinkaruk: Pure scorer, lacks in other areas.
  15. C Fredrik Gauthier: 6.05, 210 C with skill, intimidating size and he’ll likely play on a skill line.
  16. L Anthony Mantha: Goal scorers go high, Mantha hit 50 last season.
  17. D Josh Morrissey: Fast, skilled, impressive.
  18. L Kerby Rychel: A trending player, he’s skilled and mean.
  19. C Alex Wennberg: Lanky skill center with speed and quickness; playing in Swe2 league.
  20. L Artturi Lehkonen: Skill winger has some outstanding potential but lacks size.
  21. C Nicolas Petan: Small and extremely skilled.
  22. D Nikita Zadorov: Huge defender with speed, shutdown player.
  23. C JT Compher: Skill C, agitator with talent.
  24. D Mirco Mueller: Smart defender with plenty of skill.
  25. L Adam Erne: Skill W has some toughness.
  26. R Valentin  Zykov: Solid offensive player with good size, plays a physical style.
  27. C Ryan Hartman: Good skater very good awareness a player who is no fun to play against!
  28. D Madison Bowey: Smooth. Fine skater, lots of potential.
  29. L Morgan Klimchuk: Scoring winger has some nice things.
  30. C Laurent Dauphin: A very nice skill player. 

 2013 SUMMER SHOPPING LIST

  1. Top 4D who can play big minutes and multiple roles.
  2. Impact 2-way center
  3. 2line L who with size who can complement the offense
  4. backup goalie
  5. Improved depth at C, D and G.

This is my list, in order of importance. The reason I have defense so high is that the Oilers GF should improve this coming season based only on the continuing maturation of the really good forwards. The Oil will >GF this coming year, but cutting back on the GA is going to be an issue.

12-13 d

Looking at the CorsiON it’s reasonable to wonder just how many of these characters will return. Justin Schultz is secure, the Russian Anton Belov is likely to make the team, and I/we’ve got to assume that Smid and Petry return. However, offloading one in the right deal? Something to ponder. I also wonder if Nick Schultz and that cap hit are tradeable after the season he just had in Edmonton. I suspect Fistric will go to market, Potter will have to prove himself in camp to yet another new coach and Whitney is gone baby gone.

THE LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

guillroy

This morning at 10, we have a loaded show for you on Team 1260. Scheduled to appear:

  • James Mirtle from the Globe and Mail will discuss the NHL awards process, the SC finals and a busy week ahead. 
  • Alan Hull from Copper and Blue will discuss the Oilers at the draft and trade table.
  • Steve Lansky will discuss the SC finals television coverage, the draft and Leafs Nation perculating.
  • Andreas Morse will be by with the latest from FC Edmonton.
  • Jungle Jim Hunter will talk about injuries and long rehab for athletes.

Hope you can join me, questions and comments welcome. @Lowetide_ on twitter or 10-1260 via text.

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59 Responses to "2013 ENTRY DRAFT POST 19: TOP 30 (3.0)"

  1. mumbai max says:

    Just so there is no undue angst about our Swedish D. His name is pronounced the same way it looks, with perhaps some different emphasis. I have lived part time in Sweden for the last 10 years. The F is not silent and neither will be the KLEFBOM!

  2. Lowetide says:

    KLEFBOM KLEFBOM KLEFBOM KLEFBOM KLEFBOM KLEFBOM KLEFBOM KLEFBOM KLEFBOM KLEFBOM KLEFBOM KLEFBOM KLEFBOM KLEFBOM KLEFBOM KLEFBOM KLEFBOM KLEFBOM KLEFBOM KLEFBOM KLEFBOM KLEFBOM KLEFBOM KLEFBOM KLEFBOM KLEFBOM KLEFBOM KLEFBOM

  3. Oiler_Kiwi says:

    Lowetide:
    KLEFBOM KLEFBOM KLEFBOM KLEFBOM KLEFBOM KLEFBOM KLEFBOM KLEFBOM KLEFBOM KLEFBOM KLEFBOM KLEFBOM KLEFBOM KLEFBOM KLEFBOM KLEFBOM KLEFBOM KLEFBOM KLEFBOM KLEFBOM KLEFBOM KLEFBOM KLEFBOM KLEFBOM KLEFBOM KLEFBOM KLEFBOM KLEFBOM

    Lowetide, seeing it typed out like that reminds me of the Tom Jones song Sex Bomb

  4. dulock says:

    2line L who with size who can complement the offense-Could this also be a centre? MacT said he likes Gagner on RW.

  5. sliderule says:

    I keep reading all the trade proposals giving up our number seven for defensive help.

    The problem with that is that all our good prospects are defenders.Marcinin ,Klefbom,Gernat ,Musil and Fedun are in the system and you have to figure one of the older ones will make the team.Hell
    Boston has Krug playing a bunch and he is 5 ft 8 and 180 lbs.We have the same size defender playing in Denver with the same stats so the future is bright.

    Then you look at center were we have the injured RNH and unsigned Gagner.At this point in their careers neither can win a face-off to the point even the folks who say they don’t matter have to agree it is a problem. In the minors they have Lander.After that it’s all she wrote folks.Nothing!!

    This draft has two centers in Monahan and Horvat who are face-off savants and are solid defensively.
    One or both of them will be there at seven.Their offensive stats are as good or better than Bergeron ,Getslaf or Staal had in their draft year.You won’t be getting a Crosby but you will get a solid second or third line center with size and offensive upside.

    If we throw away the draft pick for someone who the trading partner thinks is expendable MacT will have made his first major mistake.

  6. Martin Lundén (dohfOs) says:

    mumbai max:
    Just so there is no undue angst about our Swedish D. His name is pronounced the same way it looks, with perhaps some different emphasis. I have lived part time in Sweden for the last 10 years. TheF is not silent and neither will be the KLEFBOM!

    Ehrm.. the F in Klefbom is indeed silent. If you’ve lived here part time it’s pronounced similiar to that of an Ä (ae), ~klaäbom or klaebom (with a hard K and the o is almost more of a u), especielly where he derives from (Karlstad, Värmland). If you hear another version it’s probably because they don’t know how to say it (I bet you some of you YEG folks have no idea how to pronouce some MTL-names f.e)..

    Also, not that you do it in this post LT but there are so many that says Lindholm might end up on the wing. He won’t. Sure, he did play on the wing for the most part of 12/13 but he’s a center that wants to lead his own line. The only reason why he was used on the wing with Brynäs is his age along with Brynäs having more centers than they had room for originally.

  7. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    This could go anyway.

    One lingering question I have is who the Oilers value enough to keep the 7th?

    I think it is safe to say, barring some Gardiner like trade, they keep it for the following:

    NM, JD, SJ, SB… and I’d guess Monahan is safe in that group. But I wonder about Lindholm and the big Russian… I think they may well pass on those two. I think that would be a mistake… unless the return is something like Gardiner.

  8. dawgtoy says:

    Martin Lundén (dohfOs),

    Thanks for the info on Lindholm. Good to know he’s a center at heart.

  9. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    I have no idea how pronounce Swedish names, but I am delighted to see everyone enjoy their phonetic preferences.

    For myself, I greatly prefer the inclusion of the “f” in Klefbom. It really ties the room together.

  10. sliderule says:

    Romulus Apotheosis,

    If Leafs thought Gardiner was a solid top four who could maybe be top two do you think they would trade him?
    The trading team knows it’s own players best as Oil have found out with players like Whitney and Schultz the elder.

  11. Rondo says:

    sliderule,

    I would think Dallas Eakins knows Gardiner the best.

  12. sliderule says:

    Rondo,

    I appreciate Eakins has seen him at AHL level.

    Big difference between that and NHL.Hope the rookie coach can differentiate .

  13. Jesse says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: I have no idea how pronounce Swedish names, but I am delighted to see everyone enjoy their phonetic preferences.For myself, I greatly prefer the inclusion of the “f” in Klefbom. It really ties the room together.

    This aggression will not stand, man.

  14. rickithebear says:

    Even GD teams usually make the Playoffs.
    Defence GD = ((GF/60-AVG)*82)/60 + ((AVG-GA/60)*82)/60

    Even:
    Potter +20
    Fistric +10
    Petry +7
    Smid +2
    Whitney -10
    N. schultz -26
    J. schultz -29
    N. schultz averaged -6 GD for the last 5 years @ even Facing 1st Comp
    and -26 with J. schultz facing 3rd comp.

    No whitney and J.schultz and we were in the playoffs last year.

    PK:
    Fistric +14
    N. schultz +10
    Petry +10
    Smid +9
    potter +4
    J.schultz -7
    Whitney -9
    No fistric and N. schultz we will have to make up +12G in the season

    PP:
    12-13
    Whitney +4
    j. Schultz +3
    Potter -1
    11-12
    Potter +3
    Whitney +2
    Petry +1
    Barker +1

    J. Schultz was an awful Dman last year.

    Smid-Petry +14 Pr versus 1st Comp
    Fistric-Potter +24 D PR versus 2nd/3rd Comp
    N. schultz-J. schultz -25 D pair versus 3rd

    Smid-Petry
    N. Schultz- Belov
    Klefbom- XXX
    that is 25 goals to the good if Belov and klefbom are Average.

  15. Mr DeBakey says:

    No whitney and J.schultz and we were in the playoffs last year.

    The Oilers should have added a Top-4 d-man last summer?
    Who could’ve foreseen that!

    Defence GD = ((GF/60-AVG)*82)/60 + ((AVG-GA/60)*82)/60

    Avg is team? League? Conference?

  16. jfry says:

    id like to get Fraser out of Toronto. Gardiner seems like wishful thinking.

  17. lance says:

    So I forgot the french press. In the closet was a percolator from the camping gear. The lady and I agree that coffee must begin with boiling water, but she prefers the press. This morning its pretty rugged despite memories of it being the best coffee ever whilst camping. This morning’s questionable production may be the fault of the brew master, or it may be that she’s just been right the whole way. “An honest man who finds he is wrong either changes his behaviour or ceases to be honest” (Unknown). At this point I too prefer denial.

    Does anyone actually prefer a percolator to a french press?

    Wish there was a kafbomb.

    If Eakins thinks Gardiner is worth the 7th, then so it is. I hope Petry is here next year, but I’d flip him for Couturier straight up. With that, the one trade in light of the other would I think make the Oilers a significantly better team.

  18. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    sliderule:
    Romulus Apotheosis,

    If Leafs thought Gardiner was a solid top four who could maybe be top two do you think they would trade him?
    The trading team knows it’s own players best as Oil have found out with players like Whitney and Schultz the elder.

    I appreciate this, but teams have a history of both under and over valuing players. It is certainly possible — given Gardiner’s time in the AHL this year — that they undervalue him, or at least that Carlyle does.

    Also, there is a long tradition of top 4 Ds being traded. It isn’t nearly as rare as we like to think it is. It simply costs a lot unless you find someone undervalued by the current team.

  19. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Jesse: This aggression will not stand, man.

    One of my favorite parts of that movie is the way the Dude internalizes the language of others and makes it his own, almost like mantras.

  20. lance says:

    rickithebear: . schultz averaged -6 GD for the last 5 years @ even Facing 1st Comp
    and -26 with J. schultz facing 3rd comp.

    That to me is staggering. I’ve never seen the JS liabilities painted that clearly. I think its because you included the math. Sad face for Schultz Sr. Looks like he’s clear on the Horcoff train of shit minutes and no glory.

    Mr. Debakey-
    Good catch, though I can’t imagine it would make much difference provided they’re all done the same way.

  21. Wolfie says:

    TheOtherJohn: Wolfie
    If your point is Sam’s just as good as Richard’s, Couture and Couture it is not even close. All 3 will be given very serious consideration on the Sochi team. Gagner is the 4th or 5th best forward on a 24th place team
    I’ll be the first to admit that my knowledge of advanced stats is limited. Most of my exposure to it has been at this site. I think these stats do a good job of telling us what has happened. However, these stats do have limitations.
    Edmonton was outshot badly this season. On average the Oilers were outshot by 6 per game. San Jose outshot their opponents by almost 3 per game. If my rudimentary math skills are right that’s about a 9 shot swing per game!
    Only 3 Oilers had a positive CorsiOn last year…. Hall, RNH and Eberle. Do you know what that tells me? It tells me the Oilers in general were pretty bloody awful last year. Gagner was saddled for the most part with a raw rookie(Yak) a seemingly disinterested vet (Hemsky) and absolute chaos on the blueline. To attribute that lines failings solely on Gagner is a mistake.
    Hockey is a funny game. There are so many moving parts that even the most dominant of players only affect the game marginally. Crosby and Malkin are generally regarded as killers yet they couldn’t make a positive impact against Boston. Why? Because there are 11 other players on the ice at the same time that each have their own affect on what’s going on. To compare Gagner’s Corsi stats to those of Couture, Richards et al is comparing apples to oranges. I would argue that Gagner in Couture’s spot with the Sharks would yield similar and potentially better results given the quality of teammates Couture played with. For an example you need look no further of how Andrew Cogliano is doing in Anaheim.
    Do the Oilers suck because Gagner sucks? Possibly but the likely answer is that Gagner’s underlying numbers are bad because the Oilers are bad. You might be able to convince me otherwise but I’m buy what you’re selling just yet. There aren’t any big, two-way centre’s with Gagner’s offense available. Horvat, Monahan etc… may turn out to be better than Gagner but I can guarantee you that it won’t be this year and probably not next year either. Meanwhile Gagner is still maturing and should still improve. I don’t think we’ve seen his best yet.

    I had to repost this in this thread because I didn’t get a chance to discuss it further last night.

  22. godot10 says:

    jfry:
    id like to get Fraser out of Toronto. Gardiner seems like wishful thinking.

    Mark Fraser is Scott Ferguson, a really good #7D.

    Gunnarsson is the guy we should want from Toronto, some who can help on D now on the top 4 at both ends of the ice and who is young enough to be part of the future.

  23. Jesse says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: One of my favorite parts of that movie is the way the Dude internalizes the language of others and makes it his own, almost like mantras.

    I just watched it last weekend. So many small, classic moments — where he gets dragged from one limo to another, where he gets nailed in the head by a coffee mug and calls the police chief a fascist, the spreading the ashes scene. Yeah. Just a great movie.

  24. Wolfie says:

    Sorry about the bad format of that last post. Copied and pasted it and tried to edit it but wouldn’t load in time.

  25. godot10 says:

    rickithebear:

    N. schultz averaged -6 GD for the last 5 years @ even Facing 1st Compand -26 with J. schultz facing 3rd comp.

    The Schultz’s were NOT facing 3rd comp. They were playing in a top 4 role. Justin Schultz needed to play on a 3rd pairing at even strength. It is unfair to judge him because Tambellini and Lowe threw him into the deep end. He is going to be fine. Remember there was hardly any practice time last year also, for the coaches to work with him.

  26. Numenius says:

    Wow. Those Corsi numbers suggest that we really should keep Fistric for at least one more year.

  27. fifthcartel says:

    Woah, crazy floods going down in Calgary.

  28. Captain Happy says:

    Eric Francis ‏@EricFrancis 13m

    BREAKING: Water is up to row 10 at Saddledome. Dressing rooms completely submerged. Jumbotron rm & all equipment destroyed. #yycflood #NHL

  29. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Wow, this Lansky is brutal on this coaching question.

  30. Captain Happy says:

    gary lawless ‏@garylawless 4m

    NHL source tells me John Tortorella has been offered #Canucks job and two sides are close to a deal #nhl #canucks Torts will coach Canucks

  31. Woodguy says:

    Torts coaching the Dys is official!!

    The comedy quotient just went up in the new division.

  32. Gordies Elbow says:

    fifthcartel:
    Woah, crazy floods going down in Calgary.

    Sounds like it’s up to row 14 in the Saddle Dome. Lost the jumbotron control room, dressing rooms, media rooms.

    Calgary might be building a new rink sooner, rather than later.

  33. TheOtherJohn says:

    Wolfie

    You missed the relatively straight foeward nature of my point. You, somehow, grouped Gagner with Richards, Bergeron and Couture. Do not care what metric you want to use. Saw em good, analytics, etc. Mike Babcock and Ken Hitchcock want ZERO part of Sam Gagner in Sochi, mostly as a result of defensive shortcomings, and each of the other 3 will get serious consideration

    So you can refer to weak linemates, better teams, use whatever you want. Two of the smartest coaches in the leagues want nothing to so with the 4th or 5th best forward on the 24th team in the league. Richards, Bergeron and Couture they are looking at

  34. mps91 says:

    sliderule: I keep reading all the trade proposals giving up our number seven for defensive help.The problem with that is that all our good prospects are defenders.Marcinin ,Klefbom,Gernat ,Musil and Fedun are in the system and you have to figure one of the older ones will make the team.HellBoston has Krug playing a bunch and he is 5 ft 8 and 180 lbs.We have the same size defender playing in Denver with the same stats so the future is bright.Then you look at center were we have the injured RNH and unsigned Gagner.At this point in their careers neither can win a face-off to the point even the folks who say they don’t matter have to agree it is a problem. In the minors they have Lander.After that it’s all she wrote folks.Nothing!!This draft has two centers in Monahan and Horvat who are face-off savants and are solid defensively.One or both of them will be there at seven.Their offensive stats are as good or better than Bergeron ,Getslaf or Staal had in their draft year.You won’t be getting a Crosby but you will get a solid second or third line center with size and offensive upside.If we throw away the draft pick for someone who the trading partner thinks is expendable MacT will have made his first major mistake.

    This. Exactly this.

    Finally we have a shot at drafting the kind of centre we’ve longed for, so we need to take advantage. These are the types of guys that are impossible to trade for, and require a huge overpay as UFAs.

    Horvat/Monahan and Nuge will give us the gritty 2-way C to combine with our PPG 1C- the perfect combination.

    This should be a no-brainer.

  35. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Woodguy:
    Torts coaching the Dys is official!!

    The comedy quotient just went up in the new division.

    If true, this is hands down the best off-season news.

    Players can hit or miss, but Torts is guaranteed entertainment. The conference just got hilarious. We all win.

  36. Bag of Pucks says:

    Wolfie:
    To compare Gagner’s Corsi stats to those of Couture, Richards et al is comparing apples to oranges. I would argue that Gagner in Couture’s spot with the Sharks would yield similar and potentially better results given the quality of teammates Couture played with. For an example you need look no further of how Andrew Cogliano is doing in Anaheim.

    Thanks for continuing on this conversation. I’ve recently dived into the deep end on advanced stats as well and agree it can be daunting evaluating players with these new metrics at hand.

    To clarify, I wasn’t comparing Gagner’s Corsi to Richards/Couture. What I was comparing is their Corsi Rel QoC 5 v 5

    Gagner -0.036
    Couture .997
    Bergeron .627
    Richards .611

    I believe this stat is actually a ‘quality of competition’ metric that looks at the corsi numbers of the players (i.e. a rough approximation of puck possession) for the players that Gagner faces in comparison to the quality of players faced by Couture, Bergeron, etc.

    Your argument yesterday was that Gagner’s production is greater than Richards, Bergeron, etc. What the above stat reveals is that Sam on average plays much softer competition. Couture, Bergeron, Richards on the other hand are expected to produce (i.e. push the river as LT is fond of saying) against much tougher competition.

    This is a big reason as ‘TheOtherJohn’ says that they are being considered for Sochi. It’s one thing to put up a 3 point night on a regular season Tuesday against the Blue Jackets’ scrubs. It’s quite another to do it in the playoffs against the top lines of the top teams.

    Further, I would hardly characterize Yakupov and Hemsky as boat anchors. Yakupov is a one shot sniper. Hemsky’s problems developing chemistry with seemingly every Oiler outside Horcoff are well documented, but the man is skilled and productive when the spirit moves him. That said, I’ve often wondered why Samwise didn’t get more chances to play with Hall and Eberle after that magical 8 point night.

    Even if Sam has poorer linemates than Richards, Couture, Bergeron, etc., that should have less impact on the primary weaknesses we are criticizing him for in this conversation (i.e. his faceoff skills, defensive zone awareness and checking assignment proficiency).

    If we’re going to absolve Samwise of his weaknesses because he plays for a crappy team, I think the only valid reason for doing that is if if you can definitively show that he makes the players around him better (i.e. he’s better than his linemates and thus deserves better linemates). Possibly the Volmann Sledgehammer has already proved that’s not the case?

  37. fifthcartel says:

    Jim Matheson ‏@NHLbyMatty 4m

    very quiet on Oil trade front. I still think they will try and deal for BUFF winger Drew Stafford.

    Not sure how I feel about Stafford.

  38. Wolfie says:

    TheOtherJohn:
    Wolfie

    You missed the relatively straight foeward nature of my point. You, somehow, grouped Gagner with Richards, Bergeron and Couture. Do not care what metric you want to use. Saw em good, analytics, etc. Mike Babcock and Ken Hitchcock want ZERO part of Sam Gagner in Sochi, mostly as a result of defensive shortcomings, and each of the other 3 will get serious consideration

    So you can refer to weak linemates, better teams, use whatever you want. Two of the smartest coaches in the leagues want nothing to so with the 4th or 5th best forward on the 24th team in the league. Richards, Bergeron and Couture they are looking at

    I understand your point perfectly clear. Those players mentioned were brought up by someone else so I continued with it. The fact that Gagner isn’t being considered for Sochi really isn’t a slight.

    Hall might not even make Team Canada for Sochi!

    My point is if Gagner were playing elsewhere, he’d likely be posting better counting and underlying numbers due to better support. And we’d likely be talking about trying to acquire a guy like him.

  39. Bag of Pucks says:

    Btw, there’s a nice writeup from Staples here that discusses Gagner.

    http://blogs.edmontonjournal.com/2013/05/23/ralph-krueger-did-ok-handling-his-centres-even-sam-mr-streaky-gagner/

    The conclusion Staples arrives at is that you have to pair Gagner with winger(s) who are very defensively responsible to make up for the fact that Sam is not.

    Personally, rather than finding other players to help out a C who’s not a strong two way player, I’d prefer they just plug in a dominant two way C (the playoffs prove this role is essential) and either move Sam to the wing or trade him.

  40. Wolfie says:

    Bag of Pucks: Thanks for continuing on this conversation. I’ve recently dived into the deep end on advanced stats as well and agree it can be daunting evaluating players with these new metrics at hand.

    To clarify, I wasn’t comparing Gagner’s Corsi to Richards/Couture. What I was comparing is their Corsi Rel QoC 5 v 5

    Gagner -0.036
    Couture .997
    Bergeron .627
    Richards .611

    I believe this stat is actually a ‘quality of competition’ metric that looks at the corsi numbers of the players (i.e. a rough approximation of puck possession) for the players that Gagner faces in comparison to the quality of players faced by Couture, Bergeron, etc.

    Your argument yesterday was that Gagner’s production is greater than Richards, Bergeron, etc. What the above stat reveals is that Sam on average plays much softer competition. Couture, Bergeron, Richards on the other hand are expected to produce (i.e. push the river as LT is fond of saying) against much tougher competition.

    This is a big reason as ‘TheOtherJohn’ says that they are being considered for Sochi. It’s one thing to putup a 3 point night on a regular season Tuesday against the Blue Jackets’ scrubs. It’s quite another to do it in the playoffs against the top lines of the top teams.

    Further, I would hardly characterize Yakupov and Hemsky as boat anchors. Yakupov is a one shot sniper. Hemsky’s problems developing chemistry with seemingly every Oiler outside Horcoff are well documented, but the man is skilled and productive when the spirit moves him. That said, I’ve often wondered why Samwise didn’t get more chances to play with Hall and Eberle after that magical 8 point night.

    Even if Sam has poorer linemates than Richards, Couture, Bergeron, etc., that should have less impact on the primary weaknesses we are criticizing him for in this conversation (i.e. his faceoff skills, defensive zone awareness and checking assignment proficiency).

    If we’re going to absolve Samwise of his weaknesses because he plays for a crappy team, I think the only valid reason for doing that is if if you can definitively show that he makes the players around him better (i.e. he’s better than his linemates and thus deserves better linemates). Possibly the Volmann Sledgehammer has already proved that’s not the case?

    To be fair I can’t say for sure whether or not Gagner is the problem or the answer.

    The one glaring problem I see about Quality of Competition is it doesn’t account for the fact that Edmonton doesn’t play the same teams the same number of times as say San Jose. That could be a good or a bad thing in this comparison given the fact that the NW division was pretty bad again this year.

    Edmonton’s 2 line was a disaster. While Yak and Hemsky aren’t anchors there was virtually no cohesion on that unit. The fact that Gagner put up the counting stats this year despite that has to say something in regards to his offensive ability.

    That lack of cohesion really showed in how poorly they defended. Add to that the fact that J. Schultz was in over his head and Whitney was a disaster. Aside from Petry and Smid the defense in general was a mess. It would have taken a heroic effort from anyone to stem the tide on that line.

    I guess what I’m trying to say is that the numbers tell us that Gagner was in a bad spot this year. I don’t think they tell us he was for sure the problem but what is obvious is he needs help. The coaching staff needs to make sure they have a system in place that eliminates confusion and better structure in defending. If that happens I’d be willing to bet you’ll see his underlying numbers take a dramatic turn for the better.

    I could be wrong. He isn’t a guy that can do it on his own but if he had the right mix to work with…

  41. FastOil says:

    Lowetide:
    KLEFBOM KLEFBOM KLEFBOM KLEFBOM KLEFBOM KLEFBOM KLEFBOM KLEFBOM KLEFBOM KLEFBOM KLEFBOM KLEFBOM KLEFBOM KLEFBOM KLEFBOM KLEFBOM KLEFBOM KLEFBOM KLEFBOM KLEFBOM KLEFBOM KLEFBOM KLEFBOM KLEFBOM KLEFBOM KLEFBOM KLEFBOM KLEFBOM

    I’ll feel free to pronounce his name with my own accent. Funny how many Canadians feel the need to be able to speak with an accent not their own. I run into this at work being corrected by Europeans often when I say their name with my accent, at the same time them mispronouncing mine in English and not caring.

    I also ran into this in Australia with many of them correcting me to say city/suburb names how they do with atypical vowel sounds for the rest of the English speakers and dropped letters. Again many were not worried they couldn’t say Canada without ‘er’ on the end or my name because they would drop too many letters.

    I was there long enough my accent did slowly start to change and I began to hear it. I felt like I spoke like John Wayne, slowly with a lot of drawl, it was weird.

    I like my Western Canadian accent:

    KLEFBOM KLEFBOM KLEFBOM KLEFBOM KLEFBOM KLEFBOM KLEFBOM KLEFBOM KLEFBOM

  42. rickithebear says:

    godot10: The Schultz’s were NOT facing 3rd comp

    Corsi is refelctive of a teams stystem effectivness.
    you win with Goals.

    For measure versus GD QofC And QofT are the true line measures.
    1st .011+
    2nd .011 to -.031
    3rd -.031 or less
    Petry .038 upper 1st
    Smid .030 Upper First
    fistric -.023 Lower 2nd
    Whitney -.029 Lower 2nd
    J.schultz -.033 upper 3rd
    N. Schultz -.040 mid 3rd
    By comp J.schultz shared a 2nd/3rd pairing role with fistric and whitney.

    i would be ok with a Fistric and J. schultz 3rd
    i have stated this all along.
    .
    D pair structure
    Is dictated by speed pocession entry ot the o zone.
    faciltated by the continuation of preventing obstruction along the boards and high center blue.
    During the regular season.
    the box area caters to 03-04 play. As such the Chara and Fistric like Dman is critical to perimeter shot paterns.

    N. schultz and J.schultz were not suited for box protecton.
    plus a Strong backcheck winger needs to be on j. schultz’s dominate side.
    Smid 6’3″ 225
    Petry 6’3″ 200lb
    N. Schultz 6’2″ 200
    J Schultz 6’2″ 185
    Fistric 6’2″ 235
    Belov 6’4″ 215
    Klefbom 6’3″

    Mr DeBakey: Avg is team? League? Conference?

    league
    Even 2.33G/60
    Special teams 6.00G/60

    i am setting up the desjardins data to get the 96 situation averages for GD based on Teamates and Comp
    so we can get a players performance compared to true situation average.
    Ex. 1st Comp 3rd teamates 40 %zone start. G/60

    For now the Norm.

  43. Bag of Pucks says:

    Wolfie

    I could be wrong.He isn’t a guy that can do it on his own but if he had the right mix to work with…

    It’s possible, but he’d still suck at faceoffs. That, in and of itself, is reason enough to move him to the wing for me.

    For me, the underlying subtext to this conservation is “when is it legitimate to make excuses for a player?”

    Personally, I think it’s a dangerous path to tread for an org with aspirations of winning the Cup. Making excuses for players and hoping for players to improve greatly year on year smacks of ‘wishful thinking’ to me and I think it’s one of the primary root causes of why the Oilers have under-performed for so long.

    At a certain point, this team needs to stop ‘wishing’ that Hemsky will develop better chemistry with his linemates, and stop wishing that Gagner’s faceoff skills will improve, and stop wishing that Horcoff or Whitney will stay healthy, and stop wishing that Klefbom can immediately step in as a Top 4 option, and stop wishing that Hartikainen will solve the Top 6 power forward gap, and simply assess these players in the vein of ‘they are what they is, and is that good enough to win a Cup with?”

    There’s an old saying in management “Plan for the worst and hope for the best” It’s one credo I think Oiler management would do well to remember.

  44. mustang says:

    fifthcartel:
    Jim Matheson ‏@NHLbyMatty 4m

    very quiet on Oil trade front. I still think they will try and deal for BUFF winger Drew Stafford.

    Not sure how I feel about Stafford.

    He’s been pushing for Stafford for a long time now, not sure why. I just can’t see Stafford as somebody we need or should go after unless the price is a bag of used pucks~

  45. rickithebear says:

    sanm gagner’s 43.8% Fo success rate is detrimental to Shot count.
    he is usually on the ice for a 41.2% win rate.

    An offensive zone win usually yield shots at a 50% rate.
    All other pocession rates are 37% shots/pocession.

    ozone:
    101 wins 51 SF
    115 losses 43 SA
    Neu Zone
    84 wins 31SF
    131 losses 48 SA
    Def Zone
    77 wins 28 SF
    127 Losses 63 SA

    110SF – 154SA = -44 SH/48 Games = -.917Sh/gm 14.28min/gm

    (60/14.28) = 4.20 * .917 = -3.85 SH/60
    that is a large % of his -6.6Sh/60 differential .917 of 1.57Sh/gm
    Can you imagine him with a 53-57% center while playing the wing.

  46. Bag of Pucks says:

    mustang: He’s been pushing for Stafford for a long time now, not sure why. I just can’t see Stafford as somebody we need or should go after unless the price is a bag of used pucks~

    Clearly I’ve offended this poster if he’s advocating sending me to Buffalo (i.e. the armpit of NA)

  47. mustang says:

    Bag of Pucks: Clearly I’ve offended this poster if he’s advocating sending me to Buffalo (i.e. the armpit of NA)

    LOL, never even noticed your handle. Is your real name Ray Emery, maybe you could be our backup this year, I hear we need one.

  48. melancholyculkin says:

    Bag of Pucks,

    You shouldn’t compare raw qualcomp numbers across teams, only the players rankings relative to their teammates.

  49. Bag of Pucks says:

    melancholyculkin:
    Bag of Pucks,

    You shouldn’t compare raw qualcomp numbers across teams, only the players rankings relative to their teammates.

    Thanks MC. I’m definitely developing a love/hate relationship with advanced stats!

  50. VanOil says:

    Shopping List targets
    Top 4D who can play big minutes and multiple roles.
    – Gardiner or Kulikov works for me. Don’t know what they will cost. If Eakins thinks Ranger can be top 4ish I will give him the benifit of the doubt.

    Impact 2-way center
    What would it take to get Brock Nelson out of NYI, they are loaded with Centers. How about swamping first round picks with them (15th) he is Monahan 2 years further along. Or would Rajala and Teubert + do it?

    2line L who with size who can complement the offense
    - Two birds with one guy, Shawn Matthias, he can play Center or Left Wing and is a Giant. The perfect foil for Gagner and Yak. Play him at Left but have him take defensive zone draws. Would Florida trade his RFA rights to Edmonton for Horcoffs cap floor friendly contract and mentoring skills?

    backup goalie
    - Sadley missed out on the Euro free agents but this should be a fairly easy free agent fix as long as he is not ancient and expensive.

    Improved depth at C, D and G
    C & G depth is a worry the draft should address. Our D pipeline is stacked I would like to see Kelfbom, Fedum and Marincin all get a cup a coffee in the show next year.

  51. VanOil says:

    Do you think Batman secretly wishes he had thought of Flooding Rexall a few years back? Will the province pony up money for Calgaries rink and call it flood relief?

  52. spoiler says:

    VanOil:
    Do you think Batman secretly wishes he had thought of Flooding Rexall a few years back? Will the province pony up money for Calgaries rink and call it flood relief?

    The Alberta Disaster Relief Fund only compensates homeowners for their loss of essential items and only on an ACV basis (ie not replacement cost).

    I think there would be an uproar if the Province ponied up money for the Saddledome.

    Also, my understanding is that commercial properties can buy Flood insurance, whereas homeowners cannot.

  53. rickithebear says:

    melancholyculkin:
    Bag of Pucks,

    You shouldn’t compare raw qualcomp numbers across teams, only the players rankings relative to their teammates.

    Has desjardin changed how he does Comp?
    From day one i compared Qual Comp and found a 1 to 1 corelation with player scoring rates.

    You are trying to deal with player affect.
    that is done on a player by player basis @
    Stats.hockeyanalysis.com

    Were Smyth last year was a 9 point player with petrell, eager and Brown for 50% of his play
    and a top 30 even scoring LW with the rest of the players.

  54. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Hilariously interesting:

    The likely rationale for the hiring of Tortorella is that he is the man who can whip stronger performances from a veteran team, led by the Sedin twins, who turn 33 in September. Tortorella, beyond his bluster, has, like Vigneault, demonstrated innovative thinking, such as deploying players aggressively in the offensive or defensive zones to achieve better results. That said, Vancouver and New York had similar problems in the shortened 2013 season, such as weak power plays.

    The Tortorella decision was likely influenced by the Canucks owner, billionaire Francesco Aquilini. He is, in general, active with the team throughout the year, in constant contact with Gillis several times a day, though the owner generally leaves his president to run the team. This time, however, Aquilini is believed to have played an active role in the interviewing and hiring of the coach, a result of the disappointment of watching his large investment in the team result in nothing.

    Aquilini has always provided Gillis the millions to spend right to the salary cap and also much more to provide additional assets such as a posh locker room and team facilities at Rogers Arena in Vancouver, as well as a sleep doctor and a troupe of other specialists. It is unclear whether Tortorella is interested in seeing his players have yoga sessions among their fitness routines, a staple of recent years.

    Aquilini has a reputation for emotional, at times petulant, outbursts – particularly well-known for his upset and anger at reporters in the Canucks locker room after his team collapsed in Game 7 of the Stanely Cup final two years ago and lost 4-0 to Boston. Vigneault’s relatively mild manner was not in sync with Aquilini. Vigneault would often leave it to his players to hash out problems in between periods in games in which the team had problems.

    http://www.theglobeandmail.com/sports/hockey/globe-on-hockey/canucks-on-the-verge-of-hiring-john-tortorella/article12748907/

  55. rickithebear says:

    While Corsi relative is lovely for General Comp

    Saad has a Corsi of 15.07 and relative Corsi of 9.
    Bollig has a corsi of 13.35 and relative corsi of 7

    I do not want any referential comp based on this idiocy.

    i will take the comp based on
    Saad 2.22 EVP/60 1st comp
    Bollig 0.00 EVP/60 4th comp.

    Bag of pucks which comp is more reflective of the player?
    LOL!

  56. Нинтендо⁶⁴ says:

    VanOil,

    They’d have to match whatever they give the Flames. Oilers have been way underwater for ages and the Flames are just starting.

    Flames were going to start their narrative anyways. A new rink is too far away. So after disaster funds pay to fix the Saddledome they”ll push to move from the flooded Stampede area to the flooded downtown.

  57. Нинтендо⁶⁴ says:

    Нинтендо⁶⁴,

    BTW, The Saddledome is owned by the City of Calgary (leased out to a non-profit like Rexall). Can’t imagine it not qualifying for fed/prov flood relief funds. I doubt it will be shuttered until a new arena is built. If public funds go to repairing the Saddledome then a new arena should get no more or less than here.

  58. Dead Oiler walking says:

    We could of course move up from 7 if we include Horcoff (pronounced Horcov; the immigration agent just misspelled it when his ancestors arrived)

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