2013 ENTRY DRAFT POST 21: THE UP ESCALATOR

How much would it cost to trade up in this draft? Say, from 7 to 4? At some level the point is moot because there’s not a great chance Nashville will trade Barkov or Drouin (because that’s what they’d be doing by dealing out). However, from an Edmonton pov is it worth it to try anyway?

DESJARDINS’ NHL Equivalencies for 12-13 Forwards

  1. Jonathan Drouin, Halifax (QMJHL)  19-30-49
  2. Sasha Barkov, Tappere Tampere (SM-Liiga) 18-22-40
  3. Elias Lindholm, Brynas (SEL) 15-25-40
  4. Nathan MacKinnon, Halifax (QMJHL) 17-22-39
  5. Max Domi, London (OHL) 15-18-33
  6. Hunter Shinkaruk, Medicine Hat (WHL) 14-19-33
  7. Sean Monahan, Ottawa (OHL) 13-20-33
  8. Anthony Mantha, Val d’or (QMJHL) 17-13-30
  9. Valeri Nichushkin, Chelyabinsk Traktor (KHL) 20-10-30
  10. Adam Erne, Quebec (QMJHL) 9-15-24

Let’s assume that in all other aspects of the game Barkov and Monahan are equal–except offensive potential as reflected in the Desjardins NHLE above. How does that gap–40 points and a complete players skills on a resume to 33 points (Monahan’s total)–transfer into trade value?

2010

  1. Taylor Hall 17-29-46
  2. Tyler Seguin 19-22-41
  3. Mikael Granlund 13-28-41
  4. Vladimir Tarasenko 21-18-39
  5. Jeff Skinner 19-16-35
  6. Jaden Schwartz 12-19-31
  7. Tyler Toffoli 14-16-30
  8. Brett Connolly 14-15-29
  9. Austin Watson 10-16-26
  10. Alex Burmistrov 9-16-25
  11. Ryan Johansen 9-15-24
  12. Nino Niederreiter 14-9-23

2011

  1. Ryan Strome 12-28-40
  2. Sean Couturier 14-24-38
  3. Ryan Nugent Hopkins 11-27-38
  4. Jonathan Huberdeau 15-21-36
  5. Zack Phillips 13-20-33
  6. Sven Bartschi 13-19-32
  7. Gabriel Landeskog 17-14-31
  8. Matt Puempel 15-16-31
  9. Joel Armia 17-11-28
  10. Stefan Noesen 12-16-28
  11. Mark McNeill 11-17-28
  12. Mark Scheifele 8-20-28

2012

  1. Nail Yakupov 18-22-40
  2. Tomas Hertl 19-21-40
  3. Tanner Pearson 15-22-37
  4. Mikhail Grigorenko 16-17-33
  5. Alex Galchenyuk 11-19-30 (16 year old season)
  6. Radek Faksa 12-15-27
  7. Tim Bozon 13-12-25
  8. Zemgus Girgensons 11-14-25
  9. Brendan Gaunce 10-15-25
  10. Teuvo Teravainen 12-8-20
  11. Pontus Aberg 11-9-20
  12. Scott Laughton 8-12-20

If we use 2012 as a comparable season, then it’s about the distance between Nail Yakupov and Mikhail Grigorenko offensively. I’m not certain that we can make those sweeping statements but it does indicate:

  • this is a deep draft
  • there is some indication that the higher NHLE is the better bet
  • Taylor Hall is the best offensive player in this three year cluster based on Gabe’s filter
  • Stu MacGregor and his staff deserve some credit for choosing Taylor v Tyler

So, with that as the backdrop, I would like help in completing the following sentence:

  • The Edmonton Oilers trade the 7th overall selection and _______________________ to Nashville for the 4th overall selection.

Note: Once again, my sincere thanks to Gabriel for all of his efforts, including behind the net and NHLE.

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111 Responses to "2013 ENTRY DRAFT POST 21: THE UP ESCALATOR"

  1. Rondo says:

    What happens if TB takes Nichushkin, it changes the equation. Would Oilers take Barkov over Seth Jones?

    I think Nashville would like a Dman from Edmonton and they would happily take Lindholm at #7.

  2. Ice Sage says:

    So Monahan for Barkov, + 7 pts NHLE… oh wait why not just take Lindholm…? In terms of sacrifices to move up, it’s gotta be a prospect who’s replaceable eg. Gernat, Musil, Fedun, Hamilton, Ewaniuk, Martindale.

  3. admiralmark says:

    Sam Gagner would work since Barkov would be replacing him basically.

  4. Truth says:

    Justin Schultz would be my guess. And I wouldn’t do it.

  5. carefreephil says:

    Gagner + Marincin + 2nd for 4th. Draft Barkov.

    Keep 7th draft Nurse.

  6. Lowetide says:

    admiralmark:
    Sam Gagner would work since Barkov would be replacing him basically.

    I think Barkov would be the 2line C between Gagner and Yakupov, at least that’s a combination you could see happening.

  7. Rondo says:

    Could go the other way trade Hemsky and the 7th for the 4th. Nashville would take Nurse or Lindolm at 7

  8. Jordan says:

    You can’t trade Justin Schultz for ….

    Oh, sorry – wrong thread.

    ____

    A-hem,

    The Edmonton Oilers trade the 7th overall selection, a 2014 2nd* and Ales Hemsky (half salary retained) to Nashville for the 4th overall selection.

    Nashville gets to test drive the skill F they didn’t get in trade with Mr. Dithers at a reduced cost, and get to keep a pick in the top 10, and get a second in next year’s draft.

    *Only happens if the Oilers are not looking to Offer sheet the Blues or Rags or others…

  9. watchtower64 says:

    Hemsky (gives Nashville some offence, Oilers eat salary)
    the 7th OV
    a 2nd tier prospect

    4th OV
    a 2nd tier prospect

    Draft Barkov
    Keep Gagner and sign to a 5yr x 4.75mil a year and hope that Barkov can fulfil his potential
    within 3-4 years.

  10. Lowetide says:

    Jordan: I like that

    Watchtower64: I like that too.

  11. TheOtherJohn says:

    Barkov is quite young. Monahan is relatively old. Barkov has played against men for 2 years and excelled. Same size as Jonathan Toews. If we can get to #5 and get Barkov I would do it.

  12. rich says:

    LT:

    As someone who lives in Nashville and has talked to some people with the org here’s how I’d answer the question. Again, this is from Nashville’s perspective – not the Oilers perspective.

    Nashville is starved for a skill offensive player. To miss out on a Druin, Mackinnon or Barkov they’d need something coming back that is an established high end skill scorer. Barkov really answers their needs – especially given his size (versus a lot of the smurfs they’ve been used to having up front – Kostitsyn, Erat, etc…).

    Nashville likes Gagner, but not enough to give up on any of the 3 names above – especially with an ELC contract. Eberle is who they ask for.

    I can see one possible way – and only 1, in which Nashville would trade out of that slot – and that would be if Seth Jones fell to them. Yes, Nashville seems to find d-men under rocks, but badly needs for offense and would rather not pick another d-man if they can get the elite scorer they need to fast forward their re-build.

    They will not take Nichushkin because of their experience w/Radulov and the flight risk. Interesting enough, it also appears Sergei Kostitsyn is now off to the KHL as well (and that’s not a bad thing given how his game disappears in the playoffs).

    Not saying it’s a reasonable ask, but given all the ways that this works for Nashville (an ELC, a high skill forward, their first pick in the top 4 since David Legwand back in 1999), you’d have to throw a huge fish to get them to move off that pick – and Gags ain’t gonna do it.

    IMO

  13. Rondo says:

    rich,

    I think you are probably right, Eberle would need to be part of the deal to get Barkov.

  14. Lowetide says:

    Rich: Terrific post. Thanks for that.

  15. admiralmark says:

    Eberle might likely be the ask. But to move up 4 spots in a draft and give away what essentially is a bonafide NHL 1st line star?! Come on… Thats a price far too high for any sane GM.

  16. Rondo says:

    admiralmark,

    Sam Gagner + 7th pick + 56th pick for Barkpv.

    Nashville has no 2nd round pick.

  17. dykema8 says:

    gagner, our first this year and next year for 4th ovrl. get barkov if he’s there. if not then pick up bpa. even if it ends up being drouin. you cant pass up that kind of talent. might seem like a lot but if you think long run it’ll be worth it. our top 6 will be set for the next 15 years..almost.

  18. VOR says:

    Admiralmark,

    Doubly insane in that it is based on an uncertain statistic. There is good reason to believe that the NHLE of .54 for the SM-Liiga is a wild overestimate and the real # is probably lower (Bruce Peters says .42). At .42 Barkov would actually bring less offense to the NHL than Monahan. So you are going to give up Jordan Eberle to trade down.

    I don’t know why people won’t accept that statistics like NHLE need to be updated with new data but it has proven a difficult sell. That does not mean the data sets don’t need to be re-generated. In any reasonable regeneration it appears certain the SM-Liiga drops – the only debate is how far? Given that we know Monahan’s NHLE and not Barkov’s trading up from one to the other, as desperately as many Oilers fans seem to want Barkov, is probably not a good idea. Giving up Eberle is nuts.

  19. Lowetide says:

    VOR: All of this is a guess. If we alter SM-L then we also have to do something about Monahan’s TOI. It’s all a proxy–we all know it isn’t exact.

  20. Tcharger says:

    Ottawa guy back again.

    I honestly can’t see anyone moving out of the top 4, unless you are willing to drastically overpay.

    Is it fair to assume Edm is targeting a D with their first round pick? If so, I don’t really see much point moving up, barring somehow being able to move up for Jones. I think a tonne of the picks after Mackinnon, Drouin, Jones, Barkov (Nichuskin in there as well…but will depend on how much risk teams consider him) anyone could essentially go anywhere…I figure everyone after the top four essentially is +/-4-5 picks of where people are speculating and I wouldn’t be shocked. It will come down to teams personal needs, I think with it being such a deep draft you will see less BPA picks being made, and more addressing specific needs

  21. BlacqueJacque says:

    Lowetide: I think Barkov would be the 2line C between Gagner and Yakupov, at least that’s a combination you could see happening.

    I never want to see Yak struggling on the left side again. He’s a right winger, period.

  22. BlacqueJacque says:

    Rondo:
    rich,
    I think you are probably right, Eberle would need to be part of the deal to get Barkov.

    Call me crazy, but I’d do that in a heartbeat.

    Eberle for Barkov, Barkov on the second unit, Yak moves up to the top line (b/c of lack of skill), Gagner takes the right side on the second line.

    We’d have:

    Hall-Nuge-Yak
    MPS-Barkov-Eberle

  23. VOR says:

    LT,

    Blacque Jacques just nicely made my point. He knows what Eberle is but would still trade him for Barkov. You are seriously saying you’ve all built in the appropriate possibility of Barkov (or Monahan for that matter) being a complete flop? After all, whatever Eberle is, he isn’t a complete flop. Barkov also played over 19 minutes and we have no way of knowing how good his linemates or opponents were (nor do we for Monahan). That is why giving up a major asset to move up is idiocy. There is no way of predicting either the value or the cost.

  24. Rondo says:

    Not going to happen, too expensive to trade down. I’d be happy with Monahan or Lindholm or Nurse

  25. OilClog says:

    Eberle in a redraft goes top 5. So we’re trading Mr.Clutch and our own 7th for the 4th.. Which may never materialize to equal Mr.Clutch? My head hurts.

    Hemsky, Horcoff, Omark, 7th

    4th, Gaustad.

    Probably draft Barkov, have Gaustad as a stop gap. Move on to fill other holes.

  26. Lowetide says:

    VOR:
    LT,

    Blacque Jacques just nicely made my point. He knows what Eberle is but would still trade him for Barkov. You are seriously saying you’ve all built in the appropriate possibility of Barkov (or Monahan for that matter) being a complete flop? After all, whatever Eberle is, he isn’t a complete flop. Barkov also played over 19 minutes and we have no way of knowing how good his linemates or opponents were (nor do we for Monahan). That is why giving up a major asset to move up is idiocy. There is no way of predicting either the value or the cost.

    Where did I say I’d give up Eberle to move up?

  27. Lowetide says:

    BlacqueJacque: I never want to see Yak struggling on the left side again.He’s a right winger, period.

    sure, agreed. Gagner can play LW, no worries there. He struggled early in his career but LW is fine for Gagner. And of course he’s played C too so can help out there in a pinch.

  28. Lowetide says:

    Rondo:
    Not going to happen, too expensive to trade down. I’d be happy with Monahanor Lindholm or Nurse

    Could be, and the post from Nashville above lays things out pretty well imo. So that said, I agree that if the cost is Eberle you don’t make that trade.

    Next option? Take the pick at #7 or deal down. Interesting week.

  29. oilabroad says:

    this eberle and gagner talk is nonsense, the gap is not that big between players, it comes down more to positional need… I would offer up our 2 seconds this year or our first next year along with 7 for number 4… even though Barkov is what we need, the more I read about the other guys the more content I am sitting at 7 and taking Lindholm or Monahan

  30. oilabroad says:

    put another way, the gap between 7 and 10 is bigger than 4 and 7, as there are 7 in the top tier, would we expect Dallas to offer up Benn to move up those 3 spots?? Not a chance

  31. godot10 says:

    Monahan would have gone #2 last year. It costs far too much to move up. It would cost the #7 and Eberle.

    Monahan (and Lindholm and Nurse) are really good players. Trying to trade into the top 4 is foolish because the uncertainty error in development if far greater than any talent different between Barkov and Monahan. Even for Seth Jones if he falls to 4, when you can draft almost the equivalent guy Nurse at #7.

    The Oilers also might be able to sit at #7 and get Couturier for Nichushkin on the draft floor.

    If the Oilers didn’t have Nugent-Hopkins already, I might think differently, but Monahan is well clear of any threshold to worry about minor dfferences at this point between Barkov and Monahan.

  32. fuzzy muppet says:

    BlacqueJacque: I never want to see Yak struggling on the left side again.He’s a right winger, period.

    I couldn’t agree more. Gagner is a fine player but keeping him is not nearly as important as Yakupov and his development. He was terrible on the left side

  33. BlacqueJacque says:

    godot10,

    Monahan isn’t getting by Calgary, unless one of the top 3 forwards (Mackinnon, Barkov, Drouin) somehow slips down.

    The Flames have a wicked hard-on for Monahan.

    They’ve lacked a top line centre since… I don’t even know when. Early 2000s? They dealt Savard because he was too small. They don’t like small centres.

  34. BlacqueJacque says:

    In fact, I’d argue that if somehow both Drouin and Monahan were available at #6, there would be some serious hand-wringing among Flames management about who to pick. They know from experience that even the best winger in the world can’t carry a team (and you can make serious arguments that not only was Iginla the best winger in the world, but the best player in the world for a few years). The Flames would pick Drouin, but only because the numbers are so absurd and the fanbase would revolt.

  35. Lowetide says:

    BlacqueJacque:
    godot10,

    Monahan isn’t getting by Calgary, unless one of the top 3 forwards (Mackinnon, Barkov, Drouin) somehow slips down.

    The Flames have a wicked hard-on for Monahan.

    They’ve lacked a top line centre since… I don’t even know when.Early 2000s?They dealt Savard because he was too small.They don’t like small centres.

    rumor today they’re in love with Lindholm. It is silly season, of course.

  36. spoiler says:

    Monahan’s TOI included significant PK time, but given what is said about Barkov’s defensive IQ, I suspect the same is true there.

    Lindholm also played in a men’s league and has an NHLE that ranks with Barkov’s. Scouts remark at his physical strength and he’s a better skater than Barkov.

    Monahan played on a shite team. I think that really has to be taken into consideration. It cuts into a player’s points. In other circumstances, it gives a boost… Gagner, Kostitsyn, Laurie Boschman, lots of examples through history.

    Woodlief includes Monahan in the top tier, and refers to him as a 1st line C, not a 2nd.

    Whereas Barkov has the greatest upside, and it could be tremendous, all three of these are very good players. Or Barkov might be Couturier… defense is one of his greatest strengths. You couldn’t give the other side of the trade, both the 7 pick and someone like Gagner, much less Eberle.

    That might be the ask, but no way do you touch it.

    My opening offer is 7th and ANA 2nd, and I’m willing to go 7th and EDM 2nd and a middling minor prospect of their choice. Then we find out how highly Nashville values the other two Centers behind Barkov and the addition of a good quality second pick in a deep draft.

    If they think the separation between the prospects is too great, then I smile and “say thank you for your time” and make damn sure at the end of the day the other guy isn’t holding two first liners to my one.

  37. ashley says:

    I think VOR has this right. The history tells everything. There will be diamonds all the way down to the early second round in this draft. Lucky for Calgary with 3 picks. A few players in the top 10 will disappoint. It’s too hard to know who in advance.

    As the predictions sit today, they’ll get a good player at 7 if they keep it. I wouldn’t trade up, but if they were considering it, I wouldnt’ offer any more than our second round pick.

    It’s hard at draft time. Everyone is excited. The NHLE and scout’s opinions seem to set a draft order in stone, and people talk about massive dropoffs in talent from one pick to the next.

    However, it often plays out differently in the years after the draft. So I’d rather see the Oilers capitalize on the draft mania. Find some team below them who has fallen in love with a player and take roster player(s), and their second round pick to trade down. If they stay in the top 20, the Oilers will still get a good player in this draft (Lazar?), and some other assets to maintain a pipeline of talent for the future.

    Since this rebuild started I’ve gone from young adult to middle aged. Life is short, and enough is enough. I want some NHL players on this team, not necessarily another project to follow in junior/Sweden for 2 years.

  38. BlacqueJacque says:

    Lowetide,
    Interesting. I was hearing otherwise, but my only sources are Flames fans.

    I wouldn’t mind if they picked up Lindholm.

    I’m not one of those guys who thinks you need big forwards, even less so big centres (after all, it’s usually the wingers doing the dirty work in the corners and getting crushed along the boards going through the neutral zone), but Monahan is more of a known two-way quantity and already plays the North American game.

  39. Lowetide says:

    spOILer: Very sensible approach. Suspect there’s no trade from either side.

  40. spoiler says:

    The ice they are playing on tonight is ridiculously bad.

  41. Rondo says:

    spoiler,

    Remember Boston left the doors open when the played Edmonton for the SC.

    Home court advantage

  42. BlacqueJacque says:

    spoiler,

    I thought an article on… ON? Coppernblue? Anyway, an article on one of those two made the opposite point about good players on bad teams – they outperform. By being one of a few if not the only scoring threat, they get some more attention but more opportunities.

  43. Doug McLachlan says:

    LT, I think you talk to NSH for sure but if the price to move up is as dear as all this – pass. BPA at 7. Increasingly convinced it will be one of Monahan or Lindholm. Not too shabby.

    The real value of the calls to Poile, Yzerman, etc is to discover the value of a Hemsky, a Horcoff, etc.

  44. Rebilled says:

    Any chance Murray is looking to trade us Spezza to offload him because of his injuries?

    $5 mil next year, $4mil after that($7 mil cap hit). Was a rumour a few years back no?

  45. Thinker says:

    I think it will take gagner, plus 7, with maybe a second. I don’t think thats worth it. Maybe if it was gagner for barkov straight up, but even then your trading a proven borderline 1st line center for a player who could potentially be a top 20 c in the league. Not to mention your giving up a quality asset as well. I think oiler fans have a tendency to undervalue certain players, so I’m going to give an example using other players to illustrate my point. The trade would be like voracek and couturier plus a possible second for brayden schenn. The price point is too high, and would leave a massive hole at center. Hold the pick, and draft nichushkin for lw if he’s there, or choose monohan/lindholm to solidify the center position.

    Also I think I should mention the liklihood that MacT has a deal lined up to trade up already. Why else would he force horcoff out the door now? It isn’t unfathomable that none of the nhl-ready centers are left on the board at 7. Horcoffs departure leaves a big gap at center, and it doesn’t make sense to create such a large hole without some plan to fill it.

  46. Psyche says:

    spoiler,

    Spoiler, I greatly appreciate the Boschman reference. Thank you from this daily reader of LT’s great blog!

  47. Gerta Rauss says:

    Meadow Soprano just said that the Avanlance plan to take Mackinnon with the first pick, and start him as the 3C. She was quoting and ESPN interview with Patrick Roy.

  48. crude says:

    During the 2nd intermission on CBC they said Roy (Colorado) is going to pick Mackinnon, and that he will start as the number 3 centre. Misdirection? or does it make a lot of sense when considering the Stastny situation?

  49. Doug McLachlan says:

    Perhaps Statsny is in play?

  50. Tcharger says:

    Rebilled,

    I would be shocked if Murray was moving Spezza….The starting price would be one of your 1st overalls and likely your 1st round this year, and then intangibles from there.

  51. crude says:

    Doug McLachlan:
    Perhaps Statsny is in play?

    Would seem that way then.

  52. Gerta Rauss says:

    Doug McLachlan,

    If they take Mackinnon at 1, they have a lot of Centers-you would think that Duchene isn’t going anywhere, and they’ll have to qualify ROR at $6.5 after next year. They are all under contract for ’13 season, I guess they can wait until summer 14 to make a decision if it comes to that.

  53. BlacqueJacque says:

    Doug McLachlan:
    Perhaps Statsny is in play?

    Either that, or they want to rid themselves of O’Reilly.

  54. Lowetide says:

    The saddest thing about Tony Soprano dying is that I don’t know if Meadow made it through the explosion. It’s the most sadness I’ve felt about a television show since the end of Six Feet Under, which made me cry.

  55. crude says:

    BlacqueJacque: Either that, or they want to rid themselves of O’Reilly.

    Right, right, it was O’Reilly making all the fuss last year not Stastny. I get my multi-millionaires confused sometimes.

  56. spoiler says:

    BlacqueJacque:
    spoiler,

    I thought an article on… ON?Coppernblue?Anyway, an article on one of those two made the opposite point about good players on bad teams – they outperform.By being one of a few if not the only scoring threat, they get some more attention but more opportunities.

    The players we are discussing are all be given every opportunity. That’s not a variable. Quality of teammates is a variable and it effects points which effect NHLE.

  57. spoiler says:

    The Pickle, who else?

  58. BlacqueJacque says:

    crude,

    Easy mistake.

    Both have big contracts. One is an selfish holdout who got too much money, the other is a consummate pro and teammate who has given his team everything and got a fair deal but his body seems to be breaking down at an early age.

    Lacroix was a terrible GM. Arguably worse than Tambellini.

  59. BlacqueJacque says:

    spoiler,

    I thought QoT was widely dismissed as a significant statistic. Less than 1% effect/correlation or whatever?

  60. Gerta Rauss says:

    Holy crap

  61. fuzzy muppet says:

    Unreal Game 6….unreal

  62. spoiler says:

    Unbelievable turn of events.

  63. Gerta Rauss says:

    Gerta Rauss:
    Holy crap

    Holy crap

  64. fuzzy muppet says:

    And cue the off-season…when do these trades start??

  65. striatic says:

    Jesus.

    I feel for Boston fans. That’s a hell of a way to go out.

  66. Lucinius says:

    What a collapse by Boston. Not as bad as Toronto’s, but god damn. They had game seven and they stopped playing.

    Watched every Boston game and liked the team, but Seguin is not a franchise player in Boston. Very good player, but not a franchise player. I’d take Hall over Seguin any day of the week.

  67. Kris11 says:

    Chicago deserved that all year. Powerhouse team.

    Bruins are excellent, but not quite enough.

    Great hockey.

    Now make the Oilers good please.

  68. Gerta Rauss says:

    Kane for Conn Smythe..?..Toews..?

  69. RickDeckard says:

    Chicago Stronger

  70. striatic says:

    Boston just got a taste of what the entire Western Conference had to deal with this season, but that the East was spared.

  71. russ99 says:

    Wow. Gonna be a hot time here in Chi-town tonight.

    Strikes a blow against clutch grab trap goon hockey league wide. :D

    You need skill and grit to win.

  72. russ99 says:

    Gerta Rauss,

    Crawford.

  73. spoiler says:

    BlacqueJacque:
    spoiler,

    I thought QoT was widely dismissed as a significant statistic.Less than 1% effect/correlation or whatever?

    Significant or correlated to what?

    Are you telling me if Joe Thornton played all year with the same ice time, but with third liners, his point total wouldn’t be affected? That’s the only outcome we’re looking at here… NHLE. And there are countless examples of this, up and down.

  74. Lowetide says:

    congrats to the fans of the Chicago Blackhawks, this is a great win and they were the better team. I’m kind of glad this isn’t the Oilers losing in the finals, don’t know how many more of those I can go through.

  75. striatic says:

    from the perspective of an Oilers fan, this was the result i wanted to see. i feel Chicago was the most similar to Edmonton in terms of build and style of play of all the final four teams.

  76. RexLibris says:

    I think we have to assume an overpay is required to get Barkov and it would likely be something like the 7th overall and Eberle for the 4th and Josi.

    Looking at it from another perspective, Flames fans have been trying their hand at the same mental exercise for a few months now and my objective advice to them has been “start with the 6th overall and either Baertschi or Backlund to get things going”, so I can’t justify it costing the Oilers anything less. And to be frank, the Oilers don’t have a prospect middle ground to make up the difference between Eberle and Paajarvi when it comes to offensive forwards.

    Hemsky doesn’t fit the age-range/affordability factor, Paajarvi looks like a 3rd line player who can chip in 40 pts on a good year, and the Predators don’t need Marincin.

    Adding Barkov for Eberle may be a good move in the long run, but it extends the timeline and effectively goes against what MacTavish has said he will try to do this summer.

    I agree, we’d all like to see Barkov pull on the Oil Drop next Sunday, but I think we may have to admit that that dog won’t hunt.

    Prove me wrong, MacTavish.

  77. ashley says:

    CHI beats LA and BOS with a smaller, skilled team. DET also contended with smaller team.

    Let’s leave the coke machines and endless search for size, and get back to building this team with skill.

    Welcome back Chicago model.

  78. Tarkus says:

    I’d be content if the Oil stood pat at #7 and called out Lindholm’s name.

    If he’soff the board then–and assuming Monahan is likewise–Nurse would be a nice prize too.

  79. spoiler says:

    ashley:
    CHI beats LA and BOS with a smaller, skilled team. DET also contended with smaller team.

    Let’s leave the coke machines and endless search for size, and get back to building this team with skill.

    Welcome back Chicago model.

    I think what everyone wants is a nice mix. Like Chicago, lol.

  80. ashley says:

    Wow, this blog is in love with Barkov. Dangerous stuff. Falling in love and all that. You don’t even know yet if your family is going to like him, and what he’s going to be like when hanging out with your friends. Do you really want to go all in with a guy you just met?

    If you gave Carolina or Nashville the chance to walk away from the draft with Eberle and Monahan/Lindholm, I suspect they would be knocking each other over to sign the trade papers.

  81. Lowetide says:

    ashley:
    Wow, this blog is in love with Barkov.Dangerous stuff.Falling in love and all that.You don’t even know yet if your family is going to like him, and what he’s going to be like when hanging out with your friends.Do you really want to go all in with a guy you just met?

    If you gave Carolina or Nashville the chance to walk away from the draft with Eberle and Monahan/Lindholm, I suspect they would be knocking each other over to sign the trade papers.

    I still don’t know where people are reading about Eberle. Who said Eberle?

  82. striatic says:

    spoiler: I think what everyone wants is a nice mix. Like Chicago, lol.

    agreed. i wouldn’t describe Chicago as “smaller”. “average size” maybe.

    still, the Oilers are closer to attaining Chicago’s mix than they are to building up to the size of Boston or LA.

  83. wheatnoil says:

    GREAT series between Boston and Chicago.

    How many trades get announced tomorrow and Wednesday in the NHL? I’m guessing 3 trades tomorrow, 5 more on Wednesday.

  84. striatic says:

    Lowetide: I still don’t know where people are reading about Eberle. Who said Eberle?

    i think the implication is that Eberle is what it would take to win the pick, even if no one is saying his name.

  85. dessert1111 says:

    Great end to the game. Chicago deserved it.

    I think the most Edmonton could give up to move from 7 to 4 is the pick plus Hemsky and N Schultz or the pick plus a 2nd rounder.

    If you include Gagner in a deal it could haunt immensely.

    Trading Eberle to move from 7 to 4 is absolutely insane.

    I am happy with selecting Monahan or Lindholm, but if it’s Nurse I’d rather move down. Don’t think there is a feasible deal to move up unless Nashville doesn’t like Barkov.

  86. Henry says:

    dessert1111:
    Great end to the game. Chicago deserved it.

    I think the most Edmonton could give up to move from 7 to 4 isthe pick plus Hemsky and N Schultz or the pick plus a 2nd rounder.

    If you include Gagner in a deal it could haunt immensely.

    Trading Eberle to move from 7 to 4 is absolutely insane.

    I am happy with selecting Monahan or Lindholm, but if it’s Nurse I’d rather move down. Don’t think there is a feasible deal to move up unless Nashville doesn’t like Barkov.

    dessert1111,

    Poile is a smart man and probably won’t make a desperation move. But that team looks like it will chop the puck in to bits before it scores.

    The 7th and Hemmer is more than fair. Anything else is an overpay. With the 7th and the talent they have, the Oilers don’t have to overpay for anything other than a top defenseman.

  87. Gerta Rauss says:

    Lowetide: I still don’t know where people are reading about Eberle. Who said Eberle?

    It was Rich that suggested ” Eberle is who they ask for”- he did not suggest a trade of Eberle directly. The suggestion kind of snowballed after that.

    Trading Eberle to move up is nuts.

  88. wheatnoil says:

    Gerta Rauss: It was Rich that suggested ” Eberle is who they ask for”- he did not suggest a trade of Eberle directly. The suggestion kind of snowballed after that.

    Trading Eberle to move up is nuts.

    I believe the the technical term is “bat-shit crazy”.

  89. Captain Happy says:

    Henry: dessert1111,

    Poile is a smart man and probably won’t make a desperation move.But that team looks like it will chop the puck in to bits before it scores.

    The 7th and Hemmer is more than fair.Anything else is an overpay.With the 7th and the talent they have, the Oilers don’t have to overpay for anything other than a top defenseman.

    Good grief.

    Hemsky at $5M has negative value.

    If anyone wanted him he would already be gone.

  90. Lowetide says:

    Gerta Rauss: It was Rich that suggested ” Eberle is who they ask for”- he did not suggest a trade of Eberle directly. The suggestion kind of snowballed after that.

    Trading Eberle to move up is nuts.

    Ah, okay. Thanks!

  91. Rondo says:

    http://ohlprospects.blogspot.ca/2013/06/final-mediascout-top-10-for-2013.html

    Darnell Nurse – Defenseman – Sault Ste. Marie Greyhounds
    Received Votes From: 15/15
    Highest Placement/Lowest Placement: 1st (5x)/5th (2x)
    The Scoop: With his size, skating ability, and two way capabilities, Nurse has an incredibly high ceiling. He has been terrific internationally for Canada and was also the OHL’s Scholastic Player of the Year, which points to his maturity. Defenseman like him do not grow on trees, especially with his athletic bloodlines and background (father was a CFL’er). It should come as no shock that votes seem to be split as to whether Nurse or Sean Monahan is the top OHL player available this year.
    Comments:
    “My favorite OHL prospect as his potential going forward is through the roof. He is a strong physical player that is able to throw his weight around and make a big impact despite still being on the wiry side. Just wait until he gains another thirty pounds of muscle, with the aggressiveness and meanness he exhibits, he could be a true monster. Nurse skates very well for his size and has some intriguing offensive tools to continue developing as he becomes that strong two-way presence. An injury to his finger, picked up towards the end of the year, left him with a torn tendon that had to be surgically repaired causing him to miss the U18’s in Sochi, Russia and the NHL Combine fitness testing. That alone speaks volumes to how determined and gritty this kid is, as his play did not suffer one bit even with a difficult injury like this to play through. I feel he has top pairing potential with NHL All-Star upside.” – Dan Stewart

    “Highly athletic and extremely competitive, Nurse would have captained Team Canada U18 World Championship team had it not been for a ruptured finger tendon. Stepped up his game this season leaps in bounds especially in the absence of Sproul and Miller who battled injuries this year. Master of the poke check as he does a great job getting into shooting and passing lanes. Can become over zealous in his own zone and needs to allow the play to come to him, nonetheless this enthusiasm is also viewed as a strength as he does not give the opposition an inch to operate with down low. Passing skills needs some improvement as he had a tendency to rush the puck up and break out of the zone on his own failing (at times) to connect on his first passes. Top end speed needs an upgrade however he has tremendous lateral agility and is able to pivot effortlessly to stay with the play. Nurse has all the capabilities of being a stout shut down defender and has already exhibited that quality in the OHL as he was is often pitted against other team’s best forwards including defending against Nail Yakupov in his rookie season. Once Nurse fills out, he will be very difficult to play against at the pro level.” – David Burstyn

  92. RexLibris says:

    Lowetide: Ah, okay. Thanks!

    Yeah, that is what I was working off of, namely what would David Poile ask for, not necessarily what comes out of MacTavish’s mouth when offering the deal.

    Poile wouldn’t be doing his job if he didn’t ask, and MacTavish wouldn’t be doing his if he didn’t try and talk him down into his preferred price range.

    Its haggling, and as much as I hate it in real life, I admire it in GMs.

  93. RexLibris says:

    Patrick Roy: Nathan McKinnon would be our pick if the draft were held today.

    As opposed to, say, a few days from now?

    Is this telegraphing one’s punch or trying to play rope-a-dope with Florida or Tampa Bay?

  94. wheatnoil says:

    RexLibris:
    Patrick Roy: Nathan McKinnon would be our pick if the draft were held today.

    As opposed to, say, a few days from now?

    Is this telegraphing one’s punch or trying to play rope-a-dope with Florida or Tampa Bay?

    It is very strange. If they announce they want MacKinnon and then shop the #1 pick to Florida, then it becomes quite clear that they’re bluffing. Rumour is that Florida wants MacKinnon, so they would want to trade up and get him before Colorado. However, if Colorado is willing to trade with them, that means that Colorado doesn’t really want MacKinnon, since they’re essentially giving him up in the trade. Which means that the whole thing is a bluff. Which means that as soon as Colorado is willing to accept a trade, Florida knows that it shouldn’t trade because Colorado is bluffing.

    Or… they just want MacKinnon.

  95. striatic says:

    wheatnoil: However, if Colorado is willing to trade with them, that means that Colorado doesn’t really want MacKinnon, since they’re essentially giving him up in the trade.

    not really.

    they might really want MacKinnon more than Jones, while also liking Jones + an asset more than just MacKinnon.

  96. wheatnoil says:

    striatic: not really.

    they might really want MacKinnon more than Jones, while also liking Jones + an asset more than just MacKinnon.

    True.
    I guess I just question the quality of asset that one could get moving from #1 to #2 in this particular draft, with such a tight range between the top 3 picks. I suppose that’s just what Colorado is doing, trying to get a sense of the market out there, but it would have to be a pretty substantial asset to make a team want to give up on the player they truly want at number 1.

    That said, I guess the question is whether Florida sees a larger gap between MacKinnon and Jones than Colorado does.

  97. wheatnoil says:

    Lowetide:
    This is incredible

    http://canucksarmy.com/2013/6/24/did-the-canucks-post-their-2010-draft-board

    Holy crap! That is fascinating stuff, if true.

    Interesting that the Canucks had Pitlick a little later (at 47), though they had Marincin and Hamilton squarely in the 2nd round as well. Would love to get my hands on Stu’s equivalent of this sheet.

  98. Kitchener says:

    Really – we’re back to talking about Barkov?

    Oilers need 8s, 10s & Jacks, not another King. Sheesh. The years of top 4 picks are past.

    Trading up is a good blog topic, but I hope to Lord Stanley the Oil don’t do it.

  99. fifthcartel says:

    So happy the off season can start.

  100. RexLibris says:

    wheatnoil: It is very strange. If they announce they want MacKinnon and then shop the #1 pick to Florida, then it becomes quite clear that they’re bluffing. Rumour is that Florida wants MacKinnon, so they would want to trade up and get him before Colorado. However, if Colorado is willing to trade with them, that means that Colorado doesn’t really want MacKinnon, since they’re essentially giving him up in the trade. Which means that the whole thing is a bluff. Which means that as soon as Colorado is willing to accept a trade, Florida knows that it shouldn’t trade because Colorado is bluffing.

    Or… they just want MacKinnon.

    Is it just me or is this starting to sound like the plot to a 90210 episode….er,…or so I’ve been told.

    *awkward pause*

    ;-)

  101. RexLibris says:

    Lowetide,

    Hey LT,

    Did you get a chance to read that article I’d sent you? Curious as to your thoughts.

  102. Lowetide says:

    RexLibris:
    Lowetide,

    Hey LT,

    Did you get a chance to read that article I’d sent you? Curious as to your thoughts.

    I haven’t sorry. Will try to get to it (been crazy).

  103. RexLibris says:

    Lowetide: I haven’t sorry. Will try to get to it (been crazy).

    Yeah, I know this is the silly season. I mean you’re average what, 2 -3 blog posts a day (not to mention the radio gig) and we have only just wrapped up the season? Didn’t mean to pester you, just thought I’d inquire.

    Any progress on bugging MacTavish’s phone?

    Best of luck to you and here’s hoping you’ve got some time booked off after July 5th. :)

  104. dangilitis says:

    Nashville would be awful trading partners for the reason Rich mentioned. Our depth is in D-man prospects a year or two away from NHL work, and Nashville wants offensive help now.

    Gagner + Marincin + 2nd rd for Barkov is oh so stupid, especially seeing as how that means we keep 7th overall and draft a Monahan – that sounds like a rebuild to me.

    The ultimate question is this if people are crazy enough to trade Gagner as part of a deal: how long before you see Barkov surpassing Gagner? If the answer is more than 1 full season, that’s another year out of the playoffs. If its more than 3 years, then the contract window of Hall closes fast. If it’s I don’t know (which is a highly realistic answer), then it’s gambling. Don’t gamble with a useable asset like Gagner.

    Last, lets point out how the diference between Monahan and Barkov is not only similar to Grigorenko and Yakupov, but also Landeskog and RNH. If you asked me to pick between possessing a combo of Landeskog + Gagner vs RNH, that’s a much tougher decision for me, and that’s what anyone here is proposing when they throw Gagner into a trade discussion to move up 3 spots.

  105. TheOtherJohn says:

    Under no circumstances would you trade Eberle & the 7th pick for #4 or #5. That’s way way too much

    Ah yes the Chicago is a small team story. Pat Kane: yup pretty small. With skates off he’s Bettman’s size. But the big minute forwards over the post season outside of Kane are: Toews (208 lbs), Hossa (210 lbs), Sharp (200lbs) Bickle (233lbs) Handzus (215lbs) and Saad (198 lbs)

    With the exception of Kane those are all good sized forwards And all highly skilled

    Ok the last line was just to get Woodguy going because Handzus got an increased workload in the playoffs

  106. G Money says:

    Just some interesting data for conversational fodder (from http://mirtle.blogspot.ca/2013/01/2013-nhl-teams-by-weight-height-and-age.html)… NHL average team size for opening rosters 2013.

    (numbers are rounded, height, weight, age)

    Boston 6’1″ 200.0 lbs 28.5 yrs
    Calgary 6′ 1″ 195.5 lbs 28.3 yrs
    Chicago 6’0″ 203.0 lbs 27.7 yrs
    Edmonton 6’2″ 203.8 lbs 27.6 yrs*
    Los Angeles 6′ 1″ 209.7 lbs 27.3 yrs

    NHL Average 6’1″ 203.5 lbs 28.2 yrs

    * Average Oiler age w/o Khabibhulin is 12.3 yrs**
    ** Joke

  107. gcw_rocks says:

    Since in the past the main currency for moving up seems to have been picks, I think the price is adding a second round pick and maybe a fifth or a second tier prospect like omark or cornet.

    How many games has Gagner played at LW? How recently was this? How successful was he? Saying move gagner to the wing seems like a pretty big gamble to me.

  108. godot10 says:

    G Money:
    Just some interesting data for conversational fodder (from http://mirtle.blogspot.ca/2013/01/2013-nhl-teams-by-weight-height-and-age.html)…NHL average team size for opening rosters 2013.

    (numbers are rounded, height, weight, age)

    Boston6’1″ 200.0 lbs 28.5 yrs
    Calgary6′ 1″ 195.5 lbs 28.3 yrs
    Chicago6’0″ 203.0 lbs 27.7 yrs
    Edmonton 6’2″203.8 lbs 27.6 yrs*
    Los Angeles 6′ 1″ 209.7 lbs 27.3 yrs

    NHL Average 6’1″ 203.5 lbs 28.2 yrs

    * Average Oiler age w/o Khabibhulin is 12.3 yrs**
    ** Joke

    Sometimes it is important to know the significance of the difference between “average” and “median”. Or to actual look at the distribution and see if it looks anyting like a “normal distribution” before, and whether the term “average” is relevant to describing that distribution.

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