2013 ENTRY DRAFT POST 9: 31-60

Oiler fans have reason to look forward to day 2 (or this season, later that same day) of the entry draft. Second round+ selections over the years include Mark Messier, Glenn Anderson and Jari Kurri. I don’t believe modern Oiler fans expect that kind of return with the second rounders this season, but if the club can acquire a Miro Satan or Kirk Maltby no one would complain.

STU’S SECOND ROUND (SO FAR)

  • 2008: None
  • 2009: C Anton Lander
  • 2010: R Tyler Pitlick, D Martin Marincin, L Curtis Hamilton
  • 2011:  D David Musil
  • 2012: L Mitchell Moroz

Apparently (I never know how to apply these studies to a modern era, and the NHL keeps changing the modern era rules) 25% of second round selections enjoy careers of 200 games or more. My experience with most Oiler fans suggests Stu MacGregor is average to slightly above average (I don’t agree, btw) so that would mean that we should expect exactly 1.5 NHL players from the current crop (it’ll be a full 2 players if the Oilers use both of their second round picks this season).

Fair? Or do we need to apply a special “Stu tax” as we’ve done with his first round selections?

COUNTDOWN TO ECSTASY

  • Anton Lander 67

So far, only one of the second round selections has played in the NHL, and I do believe you can make a strong argument that those games should have been played in the AHL or SEL. Among the other second rounders, Marincin would appear to be closest to the NHL but I wouldn’t count out Tyler Pitlick getting the nod before him. Hamilton is barely holding on to a pro career, Musil’s about to turn pro and Moroz is one year away from going to the AHL (all things remaining equal).

I think we can argue the MBS picks are on track to produce 1.5 per 6, but of course in order to be above average he’d need to deliver two of these selections to the NHL. Is that reasonable? Probably, but we’ll have to wait and see.

THIS YEAR’S SECOND ROUND

Oilers selections are (currently) #37 and #56. Based on MacT’s verbal, I think there’s a chance the club deals #7 for a first and a second (say #13 and #43)–making this year’s second round a major item for the procurement department. Last night, I posted my top 30. What does the second 30 look like? Again, this is my list, complete with bias and NHLE and love of wide range of skills guys.

I have paid special attention to goaltending and center, two areas I believe Edmonton will be concentrating in this draft. All comments with * are Craig Button via tsn, otherwise it’s me stealing from Pronman and rephrasing or riffing on my own.

  • #31–C Ryan Hartman: Good skater very good awareness a player who is no fun to play against!*
  • #32–G Tristan Jarry: If we’re to believe SP, then he belongs here.
  • #33–R Michael McCarron: PF has improved his foot speed. Oilers are on him, I’d bet money on it.
  • #34–L Pavel Buchnevich: Exceptional skill winger, puck skills are the main calling card.
  • #35–D Chris Bigras: Two-way defender with good speed and surprising defensive acumen for his age.
  • #36–G Zach Fucale: His skills very good: skating, lateral mobility & positional approach to the game.*
  • #37–L Andre Burakowsky: Good puck skills, can make plays at high speed and driving to the net.*
  • #38–R Oliver Bjorkstrand: I love this player. Nice range of skills, great numbers and resume.
  • #39–G Erik Comrie: 7th best SP in the WHL, has been a prospect of interest for a long time.
  • #40–L Jacob de la Rose: Can play any F position, gets opportunities, may not be a natural scorer.*
  • #41–L Jason Dickson: Very good skater with quickness, agility.*
  • #42–L William Carrier: Big guy with skill, Pronman’s description of his skating is interesting.
  • #43–D Steve Santini: A solid defender with good speed, very strong, physical player.
  • #44–L Anthony DuClair: Speedy winger with some skill, lacks consistency.
  • #45–R Justin Bailey: Nice range of skills, impressive resume save for being an awkward skater.
  • #46–R Nick Sorenson: Tall, thin winger with a nice range of skills.
  • #47–L Anton Slepshyev: Passed through last year’s draft, remains a quality prospect.
  • #48–L Emile Poirer: Slightly older prospect, but a wonderful  resume.
  • #49–L Juuso Ikonen: Small, ridiculous skill and an elite passer.
  • #50–R Jimmy Lodge: Skill winger who can impact the game.
  • #51–C Greg Chase: Nice combination of skill and grit.
  • #52–R Marko Dano: Skilled 2-way forward.
  • #53–C John Hayden: Big center with some skill.
  • #54–D Linus Arnesson: Defensive defender is an excellent skater.
  • #55–L Peter Cehlarik: Skill W with size.
  • #56–D Shea Theodore: Chaos D with real offensive talent. Extremely unlikely to be an Oiler.
  • #57–D Robert Hagg: Has very good skating ability with quickness, agility & power.*
  • #58–D Dillon Heatherington: Mobile defender can close gaps.
  • #59–D Keaton Thompson: Consistent 2-way defender.
  • #60–C Miro Aaltonen: 20 year old C with great skill. Undersized.

If they stay at 7, 37 and 56, I think the Oilers end up with:

  • #7: Monahan, Nurse or Horvat
  • #37: Dauphin, Jarry or McCarron
  • #56: Chase, Arnesson or Heatherington

If they deal #7 and end up with #13 and #43, I think they end up with:

  • #13: Horvat or Lazar
  • #37: Dauphin, Jarry or McCarron
  • #43: Bjorkstrand, Comrie or Santini
  • #56: Chase, Arnesson or Heatherington

What say you? The better plan? I like both of them.

Photo of Tyler Pitlick courtesy Rob Ferguson. All rights reserved

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55 Responses to "2013 ENTRY DRAFT POST 9: 31-60"

  1. Rondo says:

    Do you think if Oilers take a Dman at 7 they will be more inclined to take a Center at 37 or vice versa.

  2. Lowetide says:

    Oilers traditionally go F and then D. This season, I think they might take a goalie at #37, so it could go F, G and then D. Oilers have a lot of blue.

  3. TheOtherJohn says:

    Do not know anyone credible that discounts 1OV picks. Think, though, it really has been a Q of getting a very good player out of that pick. we did not take Alexandre Daigle. Sequin, Landeskog, Murray would be another very nice trio

    Our 2nd round picks over the last 3 years have been 31, 31 and 32. I assume if 25% of the 2nd round picks in any given year, that the % of 2nd round picks at 31/32 would be much much higher than 25%.. So far none of them has pulled a Ryan OReilly and walked into pro camp and taken a job. Marincin is trending quite nicely and may have a 200 game career.

    Not sure, so far, Oiler 2nd picks are even tracking average unless you include Matt Greene and Petry

  4. Mr DeBakey says:

    Slepyshev is under contract with Ufa next year.
    If they add another 2nd rounder, he’d be a reasonable choice, Emile Poirier too.

    I like Heatherington with a 2nd Rounder, he’d be my first choice in mid Round 2

    Earlier picks gotta be Centers, if at all possible.

  5. Lowetide says:

    TOJ: I’m fine with being very strict about giving credit for 10V, but Hall, Nuge and Yakupov do indeed appear to be the correct names. I think it is extremely unfair to say “well, fine, we won’t bury the scouting staff but no credit is due” when we all know they’d have been burned at the stake for screwing up.

    And I agree, early second rounders should have an extra degree of success, but am wondering what kind of degree would be fair?

  6. cabbiesmacker says:

    Lowetide:
    Oilers traditionally go F and then D. This season, I think they might take a goalie at #37, so it could go F, G and then D. Oilers have a lot of blue.

    None of those D project as sure things however and I have a feeling if Nurse is available at 7, and I don’t believe he will be, that they’ll go that way. IMO he projects to be a stronger asset at his position than either of the F’s rumoured to be the 6 – 7.

    Oilers might trade for the F’s and go D and G to start this year off.

  7. Captain Happy says:

    Scott Cullen at TSN has gone through the drafts from 1994 to 2005 and broken down what you should expect from every group of 5 draft picks (1-5, 6-10 etc.)

    While he found the 31-35 group had a 26% chance of playing 100 NHL games, players selected later in the second round have actually performed slightly better.

    His study was done 4 years ago so there may be some changes since teams are bringing in younger players sooner than they did in the past.

    http://www.tsn.ca/columnists/scott_cullen/?ID=267960

  8. cc says:

    TheOtherJohn,

    i thought the early second would have run higher too. But its rouhly the same, I looked at 10 years worth of drafts and it doesnt sway one way or the other. Now it should be noted that better teams draft later and likely have better scouting departments. Detroit for example have been killin the second round. I believe they hit on almost 50%.

    But teams like Atlanta even though they had early 2nd round picks did horrible.

  9. fifthcartel says:

    Dan Tencer ‏@dantencer 4m

    MacT calls snap media avail in 2 hours

    Hmm?

  10. cc says:

    LT love the prospect and draft stuff, tnx, one guy i have been following s Zach Natasiuk (sp) good physical twoway player. Seems like a poor mans Lazar

  11. Lowetide says:

    CC: He’s in the next stanza.

  12. fifthcartel says:

    Dan Tencer ‏@dantencer 1m

    Staff internally found out about this within the last half hour. It’s obviously something big. Very easy to wonder if it’s the coach…

    What!!

  13. Lowetide says:

    Tencer said wonder about the coach? Tencer said wonder about the coach?

  14. Rondo says:

    fifthcartel,

    I’m guessing Paul Maurice will be hired.

    and pick #128- Kayle Doetzel

  15. OilTastic says:

    i’d like to see the Oilers snag McCarron at #37, but i don’t trust the Habs, who have picks #34 and #36, will let him slip by them. even Chicago could take a chance on him at #30.

  16. asiaoil says:

    Jones, Mac & Drouin are locks at 1/2/3 and Mac is the only move-up target worth exploring for us. Gagner, #7, #37 & #43 for #2? That’s a load of assets but worth it for Mac IMHO.

    The next tier ALL have issues: Barkov (injury, speed), Nichushkin (Russian, hockey IQ), Lindholm (size, upside), Monahan (upside). So I think one or two teams ahead of us have the potential to go slightly walkabout and take Nurse and/or the Finn before the Swede and Monahan. Nashville’s not too keen on Russians right now and they have Legwand, Gaustad, Ficher and Forsberg at C and have little left beyond Weber/Klein on the blue. Carolina has no need for a center and clearly needs defense and maybe a winger. Calgary is a disaster everywhere and they would be smart to trade given what they will get at #6 – but who knows what those guys will do. So lots could happen and I expect something really nice could fall to us at #7 – but unless we get Mac – trading up doesn’t make a lot of sense to me.

    I could however get very interested in trading with Carolina even without getting their #5 pick to acquire Ruutu – maybe a deal like Hemsky and one/both of the second rounders. Ruutu would fix a lot of what ails the 2nd line and then we could deal Gagner for a dman and pick one of the young centers at #7. Or trade Philly the #7 pick plus/minus for Couturier who is an ideal 2nd line C for us. Lots of options and we’ll see what Mac can do under the gun.

    As for Round 2 – good place for late developing big forwards and dmen – a little early for goalies.

  17. tcho says:

    Sorry – bit of a hijack. I hate articles with this tone:

    http://www.tsn.ca/nhl/story/?id=425004

    “The Penguins – what went wrong?” What a crappy performance, eh? There are 26 other teams in the NHL that would love to have dominated in rounds 1 and 2 before losing to a very tough Bruins squad. In a short series there is a lot of random that creeps in – I think the best you can do as a GM is try to build a team with a good shot, and then push percentages with deadline trades, and I don’t think there’s any doubt that Shero did that.

    Draft-wise, I do think the jury still has to be out on Stu, but not for too much longer. The cumulative results of bad decisions year after year can have a real and debilitating impact on the big club. More Eberle, less Abney please. :-)

  18. smellyglove says:

    LT,I haven’t seen any empirical evidence to suggest that MBS is an average let alone an above average head scout. However, I agree that it is difficult to measure and that bungling player development can hamper good selections.

    Personally, I like to look at the five players picked after an Oilers selection; would those players have been better picks? If so, and if this happens regularly, then we are in trouble.

    With regards to the metrics on the percentage of second round picks “making it”, it treats all 2nd rounders as if they are the same. There is a big difference between, say, a #32 and a #58 selection. If you are perpetually picking at the beginning of the 2nd round then you better have a better average of players “making it” than teams picking late 2nd round.

  19. vesci says:

    Rondo,

    Rishaug just tweeted that it is not Maurice.

  20. Rondo says:

    vesci,

    Okay how about this

    Revolutionary will win the Belmont Stakes

  21. fifthcartel says:

    Horcoff buy out? This is the most exciting Oiler Saturday in a while.

  22. sliderule says:

    At 7 I hope they take Monahan Lindholm or Horvat. The second line center
    No 37 fucale or Jarry our new goalie hope
    No 56 John Hayden big center with hands and good u 18

    If they trade down Horvat will be gone and they will take lazar who will play wing in NHL..

    In my view it would be big mistake as Horvat has everything we want tough ,stays on his feet good hands second best in facoffs in OHL and better straight ahead speed than given credit for.

    If we move down and miss out on this guy it will bite the oil in the ass like passing on Parise.

  23. Rondo says:

    sliderule,

    Carolina will probably take Nichushkin and possibly Nurse.

    Calgary will take Monahan, unless Nichushkin falls to 6 then who knows

    Edmonton probably left with Lindholm Nurse and Horvat

  24. Lowetide says:

    Rondo:
    vesci,

    Okayhow about this

    Revolutionary will win the Belmont Stakes

    Thanks for reminding me. I’ve had a hard time remembering these last year, always miss the Belmont.

  25. smellyglove says:

    Rondo,

    Rondo:
    sliderule,

    Carolina will probably take Nichushkinand possibly Nurse.

    Calgary will take Monahan, unless Nichushkin falls to 6 thenwho knows

    Edmonton probably left with Lindholm Nurseand Horvat

    I doubt that Carolina takes Nurse, Rutherford doesn’t like taking defense in the first round. I could see them taking a winger in the Russian.

    I want Monohan. Failing that Horvat.

  26. dawgtoy says:

    @DarrenDreger: No question, Krueger is out in Edmonton.

  27. Lucinius says:

    ….. Oilers need to stop the roulette coaching crap.

  28. Lowetide says:

    Look like Eakins is the man. Man. Man o man. We’ve had more coaches in the last 4 years than Wilt had…well you know the rest.

  29. Rondo says:

    Dallas Eakins to become new head coach Krueger let go according to Rishaug

  30. dawgtoy says:

    @mirtle: Eakins and MacTavish sat down 1-on-1 in Toronto last weekend. Now @DarrenDreger and @TSNRyanRishaug both believe he’s Oilers next coach.

  31. fifthcartel says:

    Holy Eakins. What’s this guy like?

  32. Bad Seed says:

    I betcha MacT doesn’t saddle him with Smith & Buchberger.

  33. Smarmy says:

    Uh I don’t think I like a head coach change. They didn’t even give Krueger a proper season to see what he could do with the team and they bring in another guy with no NHL experience and keep all the assistants?

  34. "Steve Smith" says:

    Well, I generally like Krueger, but I said at the end of the season that if a new GM came in and decided he had to go, I’d be okay with that, so long as it wasn’t Tambellini making that decision. So I guess I’m bound not to object to this, but I’m not sure I like it.

  35. Smarmy says:

    Please say you’ve acquired Malkin for Horcoff, Hemsky and your next two first rounders. :)

  36. "Steve Smith" says:

    I guess I’ll reserve judgement until I see LT put Dallas Eakins in a box, which I trust will happen soon.

  37. "Steve Smith" says:

    This Mirtle article from a few days ago makes me wonder if the Oilers’ first choice was Krueger-Eakins, but Eakins wouldn’t go for it, and the Oilers decided that they’d rather have just Eakins than just Krueger. That’s maybe defensible.

    I still feel bad for Krueger on a human level, though; largely a victim of circumstance. Doubt he gets picked for another NHL head coaching job anytime soon.

  38. Rondo says:

    A little background regarding Dallas Eakins

    http://oilersnation.com/2012/2/16/dallas-eakins-2

  39. Ducey says:

    Bad Seed:
    I betcha MacT doesn’t saddle him with Smith & Buchberger.

    Sure hope not.

    MacT is like a guy taking over as the new Don. One minute you are having a nice meeting with him, the next you are out in the desert digging your own grave.

    He is not messing around.

  40. Marc says:

    smellyglove,

    As Captain Happy and CC have pointed out above, it simply isn’t true to say that there is a big difference between, say, a #32 and a #58 selection. There isn’t. 3 out of 4 picks at either slot bust.

    If Klefbom is an NHL player (and all scouting reports suggest he will be) Stu will have gone 6/6 with his first round picks. That is empirically above average, as statistically you would expect one of the 3 non-first overall picks to be a complete bust.

    If any two of Lander (already at 56 games), Marincin, Hamilton, Pitlick, Musil or Moroz play 200 games in the NHL, Stu will be above average with second rounders too.

    It’s too early to tell about the later picks at this point, but if any 3 of the 24 players picked by Stu in the third round or later – say Hartikainen, Gernat and Khaira – make it, he’ll be average. Any more than that ie. Simpson, and he’ll be above average there as well.

    We won’t know for sure for another 4 or 5 years, but at this stage Stu is tracking average to above average.

  41. dawgtoy says:

    @TheFourthPeriod: Told Dallas Eakins has been locked in as coach of the Oilers. He’ll be officially introduced in the next few days

  42. "Steve Smith" says:

    dawgtoy,

    Then what the hell are they announcing in seven minutes?

  43. dawgtoy says:

    LOL, who the hell knows? Why bother with a presser when twitter and the insiders get the info first?

  44. Lowetide says:

    Krueger’s firing.

  45. Lucinius says:

    Not a fan of this, even as someone who was a bit non-plussed with how Krueger handled the team during games.

  46. wordbird says:

    Seriously? so, another new coach, yet another system. what happened to maintaining a little consistency, having the system unity between NHL and OKC team? seems like two steps back…

  47. jake70 says:

    Interesting. Anyone see this comming?

  48. wordbird says:

    Hmmm, certainly sets the table for an Oil/Leafs trade or two…

  49. Lucinius says:

    wordbird,

    There was no system unity between the Oilers and the Barons; they played different systems in all three zones.

    MacT has been very.. blunt in this press conference. Admitted the lack of consistency in coaching is a concern, but he had larger, more important ones (whatever that means). Also basically came out and said the new coach will have the ability to pick and choose his coaching staff.

    I think this is all a year too early, at least, on Krueger.. but I guess they didn’t think Eakins wouldn’t be available in the future or whatever.

  50. dawgtoy says:

    The most terse I’ve ever heard MacT, wow.

  51. jake70 says:

    Eakins (assuming it’s him) is 46, relatively young. Horcoff out, Hemsky out. Youth being served all around.

  52. Rebilled says:

    This is becoming a stupid Oiler tradition in many ways.

  53. Rondo says:

    Assuming it is Eakins I wonder how much he could influence the 2013 draft

  54. gcw_rocks says:

    We are officially in rebuild 3.0. Pending controversy with Horcoff and Hemksy, and a rookie head coach, from that pathetic organization the Leafs. Yes, rebuild 3.0 is off to a bold start. Of course sometime bold things are also stupid things. Won’t surprise me at all if this falls into the stupid category a year or so from now.

    Very interested to see what happens with the assistants. If the assistants don’t get fired with Krueger, then that’s pretty fucking sad. Not sure how you can bring in a new coach and saddle him with the same assistants. Unless, you know, old boys club still rules the roost.

  55. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    I’m still having a hard time reconciling Button’s placement of Fucale inside the top 10.

    It probably shouldn’t bother me so much, idiosyncratic affection for players is basically the name of the game in an individual’s list… but it such an outlier and on a Goalie… wow… it just bothers me.

    On the second rounders….

    two separate lists are probably at issue.

    The picks that frustrate because they aren’t firing on all cylinders post draft (Pitlick, Hamilton) and the picks that are deemed walkabout reaches for some perceived organizational need that cuts against the bias of the faithful (Moroz).

    At any rate, I’ll be watching this year’s second round with great interest.

    As an exit question… why use a 2nd on a G? My sense is a great G at draft age is almost useless information. I’d take 2 Gs in the late, late rounds and wait.

    any thoughts?

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