2013 NHL ENTRY DRAFT POST 6: HOW LONG IS TOO LONG?

When should we expect Brandon Davidson to arrive as an NHL player (should he do it)? Is there an acceptable timeline? Colin McDonald was drafted in 2003 and became an NHL regular in 2013, Bryan Bickell was drafted in 2004 and arrived in 2010—how many years should an organization invest in one player?

The answer of course–it depends.  Davidson is not a high draft pick–miles from the first round–so his development timeline is closely tied to the entry level deal he signed coming out of junior. Let’s take Bickell as an example:

  • 20 years old: turns pro, 48, 10-15-25 (AHL) and an NHL cup of coffee (3, 2-0-2)
  • 21 years old: 73, 19-20-39 (AHL) and another cup of NHL coffee (4, 0-0-0)
  • 22 years old: 42, 6-8-14 (AHL)
  • 23 years old: 65, 16-15-31 (AHL) and 16, 1-3-4 (NHL)
  • 24 years old: 78, 17-20-37 and arrived in the NHL

In his fifth pro season–beyond his entry level deal, Bryan Bickell made the step into the NHL. Let’s compare that to Teemu Hartikainen:

  • 20 years old: turns pro, 66, 17, 25-42 and an NHL stay (12, 3-2-5)
  • 21 years old: 51, 14-18-32 (AHL) and another NHL stay (17, 2-3-5)
  • 22 years old: 47, 14-23-37 (AHL) and another NHL stay (23, 1-2-3)

Hartikainen has completed his third pro season, and would appear to be ahead of Bickell at this point in time. The Oilers have other options and may not be as patient as Chicago was with Bickell, and Bickell was a much higher draft selection. So, even with a strong performance, Brandon Davidson has to shine compared to Oscar Klefbom, Martin Marincin and a long list of higher picks. We can say it doesn’t matter–and coaches do say it–but a first round pick is going to get every chance to show the organization they were right–that’s just good business (if not the right decision).

The Oilers have a large group of players turning pro each season. The 2010 entry draft saw Edmonton sign 8 men, and the 2011 edition has produced 7 more (although Rieder was traded before he signed) and an 8th is on the way (Dillon Simpson) unless something goes terribly wrong. So, what does that mean? A lot of new blood in the system since 2010:

  • 2010 fall: Taylor Hall, Jordan Eberle, Magnus Paajarvi, Linus Omark, Teemu Hartikainen, Phil Cornet, Milan Kytnar, Jeff Petry, Chris VandeVelde (9)
  • 2011 fall: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Anton Lander, Cameron Abney, Olivier Roy, Brandon Davidson, Tyler Pitlick, Curtis Hamilton, Ryan Martindale, Mark Arcobello  (9)
  • 2012 fall: Nail Yakupov, Justin Schultz, Toni Rajala, Martin Marincin, Tyler Bunz, Kristians Pelss, Taylor Fedun (7)
  • 2013 fall: Oscar Klefbom, David Musil, Travis Ewanyk, Kale Kessy, Martin Gernat, Frans Tuohimaa (??) (6)

That’s an insane group of players who’ve turned pro in the last few seasons. About 30–an entire AHL team plus taxi squad–all arriving in pro hockey and in the Edmonton organization in a four year cluster. Good problem to have, but the decisions about playing time and who to sign are happening at lightning speed.

The players who have spent extended periods in the NHL have emerged from junior (#1′s, Eberle), college (Petry, Schultz) and Europe (Paajarvi, Omark, Hartikainen, Lander). The Oilers traded away a couple of picks this winter and spring, but could add some picks by dealing a few of the names above. If the Oilers are serious about getting at-bats for these prospects in the AHL, then it makes sense to clear out some of the older players.

The question for you: if we’re going to populate the AHL team with 2 goalies, 8 defensemen and 15 forwards, how many of these kids start next fall in OKC? The blue alone (Davidson, Marincin, Fedun, Klefbom, Musil, Gernat) counts 6 before we add a veteran, and the forwards (Cornet, VandeVelde, Lander, Abney, Pitlick, Hamilton, Martindale, Arcobello, Ewanyk) number 9 without any AHL veteran help.

Who stays? Who slides? Who do you trade? Which rfa’s do you walk away from?

(photo of Brandon Davidson courtesy Rob Ferguson. All rights reserved).

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46 Responses to "2013 NHL ENTRY DRAFT POST 6: HOW LONG IS TOO LONG?"

  1. Lowetide says:

    Arcobello (Fedun, Lander) 1-0 OKC but Grand Rapids tied it up already.

  2. Captain Happy says:

    You know the Barons are playing tonight, right?

    1-1 at the end of the 1st. GR outshooting the Barons 11-9.

  3. DBO says:

    MacT has mentioned that the NHL club will have more say on who plays in the AHL. So I expect we’ll see a ton of icetime given to the draftees, and not many vets brought in to help.

    And i expect Lander and Hartikainen (not waiver elig) to be the extra forwards on the big club at the least so that is a spot or two opened up for some vet depth.

    http://oilersnation.com/2013/6/4/the-oklahoma-city-barons-will-receive-more-direction-from-the-oilers-than-they-have-in-the-past

  4. Lowetide says:

    DBO: Hartikainen is now eligible for waivers iirc.

  5. DBO says:

    Lowetide,

    right. so he has to start with big boys. By the way, great write up comparing him to Bickell. Funny how we always want our young guys to be 27 and “getting it”. same thing with everyone wanting Gagner gone for Weiss. Both Harti and Gagner track better at their age then those two players, yet everyone seems to be willing to deal our kids for more established vet players with less upside who will more then likely decline, whereas Harti and Gagner should continue to improve as they mature and learn.

  6. Lowetide says:

    DBO: Thanks! 2-1 GR now, early 2nd.

  7. VOR says:

    The Red Wings keep finding Swedes late. Adam Almquist looks like a possible NHL player taken at 210 OV in 2009.

  8. Cobbler says:

    c’mon win the second half boys!!!!

  9. Lowetide says:

    3-1 GR after two. Barons are in tough now.

  10. Lowetide says:

    Arcobello (Cheechoo) 3-2. Come on boys!

  11. Lowetide says:

    Rajala (Hotham, Lander)

  12. Lowetide says:

    3-3 tie very late.

  13. Lowetide says:

    4-3 OKC Jones!

  14. theres oil in virginia says:

    You mean 4-3 OKC Who-The-Hell-Is-Randy-Jones!

    I love that guy!

  15. blackdog says:

    Driving that train, high on cocaine, OKC Jones is ready, watch your speed

  16. Lowetide says:

    Man. Whatta game!

  17. theres oil in virginia says:

    Bummer for Who-The-Hell-Is-Randy-Jones, they’ve changed the scoring to Lander (Jones).

  18. Lucinius says:

    Missed it, but looks like a good game for Lander in his return.

  19. Lowetide says:

    BDHS: Great Casey Jones reference btw. Exceptional.

    TOIV: Lander needs it!

  20. prairieschooner says:

    Lander returns to the line up with a goal and 2 helpers

  21. prairieschooner says:

    One game at a time
    One period at a time
    One shift at a time
    Play off Hockey

    Coach Nelson has those guys going pretty well
    I wonder if he is going to be considered for Ralphs consigliere position?

  22. Lucinius says:

    Oh man… TSN is hilarious. Puck over the glass song… hah.

  23. Cobbler says:

    Yeeeessss!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    Nice character win!

  24. Derek says:

    If that was meant to be amusing then why does my skin feel like its going to crawl away?

  25. Numenius says:

    Turned on the OKC game when they were losing 3-2 and they scored 2 goals to win. Amazing.

    I’ll only use my power for good.

  26. Lucinius says:

    Man.. did we get the wrong King d-prospect in Tuebert. We should have pried Voynov out of them, even if it cost us a bit more.

    Derek; I found it hilarious. Granted, hilarious in that ‘oh my god that was so awful it’s good’ way. But hilarious nonetheless.

  27. Woodguy says:

    So how many years did Bickell have to clear waivers every fall and no one picked him up?

    Do we worry too much about losing players like Harski on waivers?

    For these RFAs its 3rd and long and time to punt:

    Teubert, Colten
    Cornet, Philippe
    Hovinen, Niko
    Tyrvainen, Antti
    Peckham, Theo
    Plante, Alex

    Theo has 160 NHL games under his belt.

    Surely you can pick up a 5th or so for him at the draft.

    Might turn Tuebert into something too, but I doubt it.

  28. Woodguy says:

    Lucinius:
    Man.. did we get the wrong King d-prospect in Tuebert. We should have pried Voynov out of them, even if it cost us a bit more.

    Derek; I found it hilarious. Granted, hilarious in that ‘oh my god that was so awful it’s good’ way. But hilarious nonetheless.

    I was wanting Voynov straight up (on record in a few LT threads on it around the time of the trade)

    Klef might turn out ok, but it will take a lot more luck than just grabbing Voynov.

    Might not been available as well.

  29. ashley says:

    Lucinius:
    Man.. did we get the wrong King d-prospect in Tuebert. We should have pried Voynov out of them, even if it cost us a bit more.

    Derek; I found it hilarious. Granted, hilarious in that ‘oh my god that was so awful it’s good’ way. But hilarious nonetheless.

    Are you kidding me? The Oil fans, management + Matheson, Stauffer, and other media types want nothing to do with midget NHL players. Voynov is below the magical 6’0″ threshold, and for a dman, that is distinctively small. Teubert was the only dman on the Oilers radar in that Penner trade. Big and mean. Yeah, baby.

    The Oilers want to get heavier. The Oilers want to get bigger. We don’t need guys to put the puck in the net. All we need are tall players that are heavy (RNH is a tall player, but not heavy, so also gets thrown in the midget pile), and then we are going to see something different around here.

  30. gcw_rocks says:

    I think they flush Plante, Tuebert, Hoiiven, Peckham, Tryvainen, Vande Velde, Abney, and maybe House. I think Cornet has earned himself another year.

    As far as veterans, I would like to see them bringing in 2. Veteran d-men to work with the 6 kids, plus strong defensive AHL veteran forwards, giving the prime offensive minutes to the kids. Finally, they should play Moog-Fuhr with Roy and Danis, switching off each game regardless of outcome to get Roy enough minutes.

  31. fifthcartel says:

    Can they just buy out Abney or send him home?

    Lander with 8 points in 7 playoff games. Anything there?

  32. Lowetide says:

    fifthcartel:
    Can they just buy out Abney or send him home?

    Lander with 8 points in 7 playoff games. Anything there?

    Too small a sample. Lander had one solid offensive season in SEL, hasn’t shown a thing since arriving in NA. We’d need to see a year of that.

  33. RickDeckard says:

    fifthcartel,

    Can’t buy out an ELC under regular rules so I imagine the amnesty is similar.

  34. Kris11 says:

    I believe in Anton Lander.

    If I was MacT, and Incouldn’t find a great option at 4C, I’d throw Lander on there to start the season and see what happens.

    Call me crazy.

  35. fifthcartel says:

    Lowetide,

    I’m not sure if he’s waiver eligible, but I agree this isn’t a strong enough sample size, however, I hope he can carry this into next year if he starts in the AHL to start and show he score more than he has.

    RickDeckard,

    Hopefully they cut ties with him after his ELC.

  36. Lowetide says:

    Fifth: Lander doesn’t have to clear waivers, but Hartikainen will in the fall.

    kris11: I’m cheering for Lander but don’t know if he has enough offense.

  37. spoiler says:

    Last game the CBC crew said LA didn”t want Voynov a couple of years ago and struggled to find a trade partner….

    Sometimes guys look like shit and then they take a step. And you never know who that’s going to be. A Fool”s Game.

  38. Marc says:

    ashley: Are you kidding me?The Oil fans, management + Matheson, Stauffer, and other media types want nothing to do with midget NHL players.Voynov is below the magical 6’0″ threshold, and for a dman, that is distinctively small.Teubert was the only dman on the Oilers radar in that Penner trade.Big and mean.Yeah, baby.

    The Oilers want to get heavier.The Oilers want to get bigger.We don’t need guys to put the puck in the net.All we need are tall players that are heavy (RNH is a tall player, but not heavy, so also gets thrown in the midget pile), and then we are going to see something different around here.

    Matty has reported on a couple of occasions that the Oilers that the Oilers have long like Voynov and tried to get him in the Penner deal but LA wouldn’t give him up, so I don’t think what you’re saying is right.

  39. OilLeak says:

    Lowetide,

    I think with another complete year in the AHL lander will be fine, won’t bring a lot of offense but will fill a depth role. At this point I’m more concerned about Hartikainen in the NHL, the guy is slow and doesn’t have a lot tools or the defensive game make up for it.

  40. gcw_rocks says:

    RickDeckard,

    Where did you find that? I have not been able to find anything that says you can’t buy out an ELC. The buyout provision refers to being able to buy out any SPC. The ELC, as far as I can see, is a form of SPC. I haven’t found anything that specifies that an ELC is seperate and distinct from an SPC.

  41. Bank Shot says:

    gcw_rocks:
    RickDeckard,

    Where did you find that?I have not been able to find anything that says you can’t buy out an ELC.The buyoutprovision refers to being able to buy out any SPC.The ELC, as far as I can see, is a form of SPC.I haven’t found anything that specifies that an ELC is seperate and distinct from an SPC.

  42. russ99 says:

    The difference between Voynov and Teubert is that Tuebert had issues after he was drafted and before the Oilers made that deal. Voynov always was looked upon as having a higher ceiling, all Teubert had was size and his draft pick number.

    And we went for the bigger player, yet again…

    Want to see more brains used in Oiler player acquisition, not trying to fill spots with specifically sized players or to chase after the next Lucic or Regehr that will probably never come.

    Why invest so much in scouting and analytics if we’re not going to use it? Glad that MacT seems to bring some of those smarts (and much needed decisiveness) as GM, but we still have much of the same people in the organization as under Tambellini under him.

  43. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Lowetide: I’m cheering for Lander but don’t know if he has enough offense.

    Cherrypicking, but here are Lander’s numbers for his last 5 AHL regular season games plus playoffs to date:

    11 GP, 10-7-17, +14

    Not a big enough sample to differentiate between “hot streak” and “figured it out”, but a promising development all the same. At minimum, that’s a hell of a hot streak, and at a time the team really needed it.

  44. ashley says:

    Marc: Matty has reported on a couple of occasions that the Oilers that the Oilers have long like Voynov and tried to get him in the Penner deal but LA wouldn’t give him up, so I don’t think what you’re saying is right.

    Could very well be as my post was in hyperbole.

    The LT crowd had it right though. I remember more than a handful of posters here saying the target should be Voynov. In retrospect, foregoing LA’s first round pick and just taking Voynov for Penner would have been a great deal. Hard to know that at the time.

    Still, the fanbase and Matheson, and Spector, and Don Cherry would have vilified that trade as soon as it came across the wire. A 5’11″ defenseman prospect? After all, the Oilers were amongst the lowest in the league last year in hits and fights, and also finished low in the standings.

    Add to that the fact that a couple of their ultra talented forwards are below 6’0″, and you can see the obvious cause-and-effect here folks.

  45. Captain Happy says:

    ashley: Could very well be as my post was in hyperbole.

    The LT crowd had it right though.I remember more than a handful of posters here saying the target should be Voynov.In retrospect, foregoing LA’s first round pick and just taking Voynov for Penner would have been a great deal.Hard to know that at the time.

    Still, the fanbase and Matheson, and Spector, and Don Cherry would have vilified that trade as soon as it came across the wire.A 5’11″ defenseman prospect?After all, the Oilers were amongst the lowest in the league last year in hits and fights, and also finished low in the standings.

    Add to that the fact that a couple of their ultra talented forwards are below 6’0″, and you can see the obvious cause-and-effect here folks.

    The only KIngs forward under 6’0″ is Mike Richards at 5’11″ 200.

  46. dessert1111 says:

    Walk from Teubert, Tyrvainen, Hovinen, Plante. Likely Cornet as well — he is producing reasonably on a skill line, but he looks to be that line’s passenger (Arco + Cheechoo).

    I would try to get something for Peckham but if not probably not qualify him either.

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