GO NOW

Craig MacTavish hasn’t been on the job long, but he’s certainly going about the task at hand with some vigor. It’s easy to forget just how many transactions have happened (or not happened) since his arrival.

  1. April 15: Oilers move MacTavish into GM role.
  2. April 17: Sign college free agent Andrew Miller.
  3. April 20: Sign D Martin Gernat (2011 draft pick).
  4. April 25: Sign G Frans Tuohimaa (2011 draft pick).
  5. May 4: G Niko Hovinen signs with Metallurg Novokuznetsk (KHL)
  6. May 22: D Andy Sutton announces his retirement.
  7. May 30: Oilers sign D Anton Belov as a free agent.
  8. June 6: L Antti Tyrvainen signs with Jokerit (SML).
  9. June 10: Hire Dallas Eakins as head coach.
  10. June 10: Teemu Hartikainen signs a two-year deal in UFA (KHL)

He’s added two guys who cost only money (Miller, Belov) and may have an impact on the team, two 2011 picks who would have gone back in the draft (and passed on Samu Perhonen from the same draft) and made some room on the 50-man cap list. Plus of course the coach. There’s lots of work to do, but the rfa and ufa list is interesting because the club isn’t signing anyone from those lists–yet.

  1. C Sam Gagner (rfa looking for a big raise)
  2. L Magnus Paajarvi (rfa looking for a nice bump)
  3. D Theo Peckham (rfa persona non grata)
  4. R Ryan Jones (ufa looking for employment)
  5. L Lennart Petrell (ufa looking for employment)
  6. C Jarred Smithson (ufa looking for employment)
  7. D Ryan Whitney (ufa looking for employment)
  8. D Mark Fistric (ufa looking for employment–and a guy who cost a 3rd rd pick)
  9. G Nikolai Khabibulin (ufa looking for employment)

MacT has already told us that Whitney and Khabibulin won’t return, leaving UFA’s Jones, Petrell, Smithson and Fistric as decisions that have to be made (or have been made but are not public information at this time). Among rfa’s we know MacT values Gagner and suspect he values Paajarvi. Peckham is in tribulatióne. Plus of course Horcoff and Hemsky who are about to exit the system.

Here’s what’s interesting. Have a look at transaction totals for the last off-seasons (April 15-Sept 1, draft not included but all transactions otherwise a part of the number below):

  • 2010: 28
  • 2011: 23
  • 2012: 19
  • 2013: 5

My guess is MacT hits 30+ this summer.

The interesting thing about MacT is that only two of the moves will have an impact on the Oilers 2013-14: Eakins and Belov. If we make a “keeper” list of Oilers who are under contract and likely to play in the NHL for the Oilers this season, it might look like this:

  • C: Nuge
  • L: Hall, Smyth
  • R: Eberle, Yakupov, Brown
  • LD: Smid, N Schultz
  • RD: Petry, J Schultz, Belov
  • G: Dubnyk

That’s 12. We could add Gagner, Paajarvi and Klefbom, but we’re not certain that MacTavish will go that route. Massive number of transactions on the way.

edmonton refinery

By the time we get to this point in the draft season, we usually have an idea about what the Oilers are thinking. A year ago, we were talking about Mitchell Moroz because there was enough information in the Edmonton ether to reasonably suggest that was an option. We also had enough on the #1 overall pick to make statements like this one.

This year, there appears to be three reasonable options Edmonton will/is considering:

  • trading up to #4 or #5 for Barkov
  • staying at #7 and selecting Monahan, Horvat or Nurse
  • dealing down (#13 and #43 from Winnipeg, Toronto deal we discussed yesterday) and getting a prospect they value highly later in the first round.

Based on the conversations we’ve had on this blog in the last few days, dealing up has universal appeal and dealing down is extremely unpopular unless immediate and impressive help is on the way.

We’re just over two weeks from the draft, and we’re likely a little over a week from the end of the NHL season. This is the calm before the storm.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE (10am to Noon) ON TEAM 1260

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63 Responses to "GO NOW"

  1. matmik says:

    LT – I’m sure you’ve gone over this before – but is there podcast available for the new show??

    Thanks, Matt

  2. slopitch says:

    I still like moving the pick or pick+player for a good player (ie Couturier). I’ll be happy if they keep the pick or move up with Carolina. It would be nice to add a center.

    Geno just got 8 years @ 9.5 per. I wonder if anything shakes loose in Pitts. Philly also needs to move salary. MacT has so infinite options – its gonna be so interesting seeing which ones he chooses.

  3. cc says:

    LT,

    Your thoughts on this Pelss story that’s making the rounds. I read about it an hour ago from Eric Rogers. Brownlee just tweeted about it. Not looking good.

    Robin Brownlee ‏@Robin_Brownlee 5m
    Breaking story: Oil Kings player and EDM Oiler draft pick has drowned, according to this report: http://www.apollo.lv/zinas/zurnalists-gajis-boja-jaunais-latviesu-hokejists-kristians-pelss/572247

  4. vesci says:

    LT, with the number of NHL ready players still needed for the roster, if the Oilers can get something like the deal you proposed yesterday or a similar deal for an NHL ready center and a later round pick they should seriously consider it. An example of a deal for a center may be Johansen and one of Columbus’s later 1st round picks (14 or 19)

  5. slopitch says:

    @Matt: try soundcloud

    https://soundcloud.com/theteam1260

  6. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Heck of a game last night.

    After the first 10 minutes, I was convinced CHI was going to speed-rail the Bruins through the series… then the Bs scored… Lucic! and I was convinced it was PIT all over again…

    Instead, we finally got some competitive playoff hockey for a change. This is going to be a great series (one hopes) and should allow a lot of divergent narratives about hockey to have meta-arguments.

    ——-

    On the Gardiner trade from last night. YES, I do that trade and target one of the late first round Cs with the 21.

    Also get Ranger.

    Does Ranger, Gardiner and Belov = the top 2 D we’ve been looking for?

    arguably. At any rate, it’s worlds better than what we’ve got now and without really losing anything.

    ———–

    Last night Andi P said Streit was looking for 6 burgers a year!!! 6….

    wow… if he gets that for 3, 4 or 5 years…

    Unless his back 9 is Lidstrom-calibre (which it won’t be) that’s a colossal bungle of assets.

    we just dodged a huge bullet.

  7. russ99 says:

    3 more wins by the Hawks :) and MacT can start on the monumental and needed task of turning over this roster.

    Look the moves Dale Tallon made in a similar situation two years ago in Florida (despite the bump in the road this year) – that could be a good measuring stick.

  8. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    cc:
    LT,

    Your thoughts on this Pelss story that’s making the rounds.I read about it an hour ago from Eric Rogers.Brownlee just tweeted about it.Not looking good.

    Robin Brownlee ‏@Robin_Brownlee 5m
    Breaking story: Oil Kings player and EDM Oiler draft pick has drowned, according to this report: http://www.apollo.lv/zinas/zurnalists-gajis-boja-jaunais-latviesu-hokejists-kristians-pelss/572247

    Holy Crap!!!

    That’s horribly sad.

    Is this confirmed?

  9. Woodguy says:

    I really hope MacT can trade.

    I like his pick of coaches.

    I like that he’s cutting free ineffective UFA/RFAs

    What we don’t know is how he’ll do in trading?

    Will he want “his guy” so bad that he’ll over pay in more transactions?

    He seems very eager, and experienced GM’s might take advantage of that and saddle him with a boat anchor or two.

    Sather is awful with UFA’s and has been a trading master for eons. How he got McDonagh in Gomez trade is still baffling.

    Will MacT be more like Sather or Gainey in that deal?

    As must as his bluster gets in the way of everything Brian Burke owned souls in trades too.

    Destroying Darrell Sutter as a GM, then robbing Bob Murray of Gardiner.

    I hope MacT can do deals like that, as well as old Kevin Lowe deals like getting Gilbert for 20 games of Salo.

    That’s the biggest unknown right now.

    We’ll find out soon how he does, because trades are coming.

  10. Racki says:

    Shocking about Kristians Pelss. It’s still a bit sketchy though, from what Tencer was saying. But I don’t know why someone would make that up. However, maybe it was lost in translation, or maybe it was someone else.. or maybe he actually survived.. who knows. I am surprised to hear that though. He was one prospect i thought might be a bit of a sleeper for our bottom lines down the road. But hockey aside, never good to hear about something like that.

  11. Lowetide says:

    The Pelss story is extremely sad if true but unconfirmed. It’s best to wait until all the information is available in these moments. Very sad for whoever lost their life on that bridge.

  12. cc says:

    I sure as hell hope it’s not Pelss. Here’s the latest tweets from Eric Rogers …

    Eric Rodgers ‏@AHLBarons 6m
    Second report from Latvia “@ArvisLaksa: New info: Relatives are still searching for missing Pelss and rejected reports that he had died!”

    Eric Rodgers ‏@AHLBarons 6m
    @JasonGregor @Robin_Brownlee Family denying he is the one that drowned. Confirms he is missing however

  13. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    apparently Pens signed Malkin.

  14. supernova says:

    Incredibly sad for Pelss’ family, or the family of the young man who drowned.

    I floated this out there a while back, but more relevant now with the Malkin signing.

    What do the penguins do with Letang, he is surely 6.5 to 7.5 mill per year cap hit. Can they afford him,Crosby and Malkin? Add in Neal as well.

    If I am MacT I am pitching ray Shero with Petry, this years first and next years, as well as a couple of other prospects, maybe Marincin, and Gernat.

  15. Woodguy says:

    supernova,

    They keep Letang.

    I think the emergence (and cost) of Beau Bennett makes Neal expendable.

    If the decide to not buy out Fleury (as Shero said), something has to give.

    Neal at $5MM/yr for 5 years at 2LW would be very good..

  16. Mark-LW says:

    Sad news about Pelss or whoever it is that’s missing. That river is quite large and apparently deep; there is a cruise liner docked just downstream from that bridge in Google maps.

  17. Racki says:

    Woodguy:
    supernova,

    They keep Letang.

    I think the emergence (and cost) of Beau Bennett makes Neal expendable.

    If the decide to not buy out Fleury (as Shero said), something has to give.

    Neal at $5MM/yr for 5years at2LW would be very good..

    James Neal would be a nice addition to our group.

    I’m sure he’ll get a good raise too, but I would also like to see Stephen Weiss here, possibly replacing Sam Gagner. Brings much of what Sam does offensively (maybe with less potential for big numbers), but with the defensive ability already there, and faceoff skills, he’d be a great add. He is UFA. He doesn’t fit the size requirement, but we can get by with a small C if the can already play D well and win draws.

    No idea what kind of money he’s looking for though. I’d assume Gagner will earn around the $5m mark.. so if Weiss could be had for within around $500k of whatever Sam earns, I’d be taking Weiss.

  18. B.C.B says:

    I just don’t see most of that list as MacT’s decisions. At least three (and a half, if you include Tyrvainen) have nothing to do with his decision making.

    April 15: Oilers move MacTavish into GM role.
    April 17: Sign college free agent Andrew Miller.
    It was under Tambo’s reign that all the leg work for this deal was done & given the OK. Maybe MacT suggested this player, or was involved scouting him, but I don’t think we can say this was MacT’s decision.
    April 20: Sign D Martin Gernat (2011 draft pick).
    Again with only five days on the job, MacT most likely did not make this decision. This is a player that has been in the long term plans (drafting him with two separate teams in the organization & playing him the WHL) that has Tambo’s fingerprints all over.
    April 25: Sign G Frans Tuohimaa (2011 draft pick).
    May 4: G Niko Hovinen signs with Metallurg Novokuznetsk (KHL)
    This is the first actual point that it is clear that MacT has started to make decisions. It fits the verbal that he said on goaltending on his first press conference (and comments afterwards). The visible signs of a house cleaning going on in the blue paint.
    May 22: D Andy Sutton announces his retirement.
    Nothing to do with MacT!
    May 30: Oilers sign D Anton Belov as a free agent.
    MacT’s biggest move to date (that includes the Eakins hire for me at least) . . . good KHL defender coming into the Oilers with no assets going out!
    June 6: L Antti Tyrvainen signs with Jokerit (SML).
    MacT’s decision, but likely one that even Tambo makes.
    June 10: Hire Dallas Eakins as head coach.
    All MacT all the time.
    June 10: Teemu Hartikainen signs a two-year deal in UFA (KHL)
    Likely to do with MacT: if he really wanted Teemu in oiler silks on opening day, communicating this point would have likely stopped him from signing a two year deal in Russia.

  19. Lowetide says:

    BCB: How many transactions do you hve for Mact? 5? How many do I have? 5?

  20. RexLibris says:

    Hearing about Pelss, I felt sick. Terrible to see any young person lost with so much potential.

  21. RexLibris says:

    Woodguy:
    I really hope MacT can trade.

    I like his pick of coaches.

    I like that he’s cutting free ineffective UFA/RFAs

    What we don’t know is how he’ll do in trading?

    Will he want “his guy” so bad that he’ll over pay in more transactions?

    He seems very eager, and experienced GM’s might take advantage of that and saddle him with a boat anchor or two.

    Sather is awful with UFA’s and has been a trading master for eons.How he got McDonagh in Gomez trade is still baffling.

    Will MacT be more like Sather or Gainey in that deal?

    As must as his bluster gets in the way of everything Brian Burke owned souls in trades too.

    Destroying Darrell Sutter as a GM, then robbing Bob Murray of Gardiner.

    I hope MacT can do deals like that, as well as old Kevin Lowe deals like getting Gilbert for 20 games of Salo.

    That’s the biggest unknown right now.

    We’ll find out soon how he does, because trades are coming.

    Gauthier was in charge of the Canadiens during the Gomez-McDonagh trade, Gainey’s daughter had just gone missing on that tall-ship accident. That trade was on Gauthier, although Gainey had ups and downs during his career as well.

    Burke did rob some people blind, but his own ego also took a sizeable chunk out of his legacy in the Kessel deal.

    I agree, though, it has been far too long since Oilers fans have felt like their GM could win a trade.

    Personally, I think they use Hemsky to address defense, swapping offense for defense is an easier sell to many GMs than established defense for future prospects.

  22. supernova says:

    Racki: James Neal would be a nice addition to our group.

    I’m sure he’ll get a good raise too, but I would also like to see Stephen Weiss here, possibly replacing Sam Gagner. Brings much of what Sam does offensively (maybe with less potential for big numbers), but with the defensive ability already there, and faceoff skills, he’d be a great add. He is UFA. He doesn’t fit the size requirement, but we can get by with a small C if the can already play D well and win draws.

    No idea what kind of money he’s looking for though. I’d assume Gagner will earn around the $5m mark.. so if Weiss could be had for within around $500k of whatever Sam earns, I’d be taking Weiss.

    Woodguy,
    Racki,

    I think it boils down to keeping Letang or Neal as well. Shero seems to be a pro-active GM and is probably in contract talks with Letang already. Shero might be open to hearing some offers that stock his team. If Letang is looking for above 7 million per he might be more open to moving him. In my opinion there aren’t alot of 1′s and 2 defenceman available. He might be the most available of them out there.

    Not saying its Likely but i think now is the time to make shero an offer. Letang and Schultz on the back-end would be fantastic with the transition game for years. They can both skate, and have excellent vision.

    I would be interested in Neal as well , but he strikes me as a “soft” tough. He has size and skill but would be much more inclined to overpay on free agency for a Horton or Clarkson, and not have to give up assets.

    In My opinion I think MacT should sign a top 6 in Free agency (even as a overpay) and use assets to trade for as good of D as possible.

    I am sure Bickell has priced himself into the 3 plus million range now, Clarkson is probably 5 plus, Horton 5 -6. I would take any of these 3 at as short of term as i could get.

  23. supernova says:

    Mike Colligan ‏@MikeColligan 14s

    Shero on Letang: “If we don’t have a deal by the draft, does that mean we’re trading him? I can’t even speculate that. I don’t even know.”
    Collapse

    just as i had finished posting. there is a possibility

  24. rickithebear says:

    Racki:
    Weiis has been on my list for the summer.
    Re: ability and Cost.
    A healthy weiss is that complete Center.
    Handles tough Comp Even,
    top PK, top PP,
    Hits,
    Takeaways,
    ,53% face-off,

  25. Beaker says:

    Yes please for Neal or Letang. No idea what we could give up that Pittsburgh would take for either of them.

  26. RickDeckard says:

    RexLibris,

    The Kessel trade isn’t nearly as bad as the media make it sound. Hamilton is scratched and Knight is an AHLer. Seguin is nowhere near Kessel. Giving up Seguin was quite literally the second worst outcome possible and Kessel was still worth it.

  27. Beaker says:

    RickDeckard,

    Depends on how you want to look at it. For the first 5 years TO wins that trade… after that? We’ll see. You also have to consider value when evaluating trade. Boston basically HAD to trade Kessel which lessens his value so you have to measure the trade to the context.

    It’s like saying getting Streit to a 4th rounder or w/e is a steal because look you’re getting this top pairing type dman for a 4th round pick but if you look at context then you see he had no contract and hes old so that trade seems about right.

  28. cadooo says:

    matmik,

    I couldn’t find a feed that was just the lowdown so I made one myself with yahoo pipes. http://pipes.yahoo.com/pipes/pipe.run?_id=a64d38d7325b185fffce6fd13049f0d1&_render=rss

    That pulls in all the lowdown shows from the full feed.

  29. uni says:

    RickDeckard,

    Keep in mind that Seguin is 21 and still getting better (on a deep Bruins team that can take it’s time with him), and that Hamilton is a 19 year old defenceman.

    Jarred Knight if he ever makes it will be a 3rd line player at best, but he’s supposed to spend some time in the AHL for seasoning.

    As Breaker stated, in 5 years, how does this deal look? If Seguin becomes a point per game solid 2 way center and Hamilton reaches his potential as a #1 defenceman with all those physical tools it’ll be a doozy.

  30. slopitch says:

    Jeez if Streit thinks he can get 6 mill, what does Letang think he’s worth? Subban is the most underpaid player in the league!

  31. Racki says:

    rickithebear:
    Racki:
    Weiis has been on my list for the summer.
    Re: ability and Cost.
    A healthy weiss is that complete Center.
    Handles tough Comp Even,
    top PK, top PP,
    Hits,
    Takeaways,
    ,53% face-off,

    Yah he has the tools that we need in order for players like Hall and Yakupov to do what they do best. I know it frustrated fans, but I liked seeing Hall and Eberle with Horcoff when they played together, because, while he has a bit suspect of hands in the o-zone, he allowed them to play their offensive game. This game we play of getting the puck back all the time is a bit of a hindrance. Hall and Eberle are good enough that they can win some battles for position, but I think if Weiss played 2nd line with say Yakupov and a big body with hands, we’d see some great offense generated without leaking too many goals against.

    So yah, he’s on my wish list too.

    Other wish list item… “stud” d-man.

    Don’t need either, but it sure would help this team out.

  32. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    On Seguin,

    his non-production in the Playoffs is a real head-scratcher. I haven’t paid attention to the fancy stats since the first round, but IIRC vs. Toronto he was getting a lot of shots and simply having terrible luck.

    Don’t know if that is still the case, or what. But he’s definitely being carried along by other forces on that team right now.

    On him vs. Kessel, you have to also remember the value of ELC years. that gives you room to fiddle with your roster that Toronto doesn’t have… and really won’t have once Kessel gets paid in the future.

    On Streit vs. Subban. Subban is much better but it is not atypical for young players to take the small dollars early and stick it to the team on their second contract post ELC. Nor is it atypical for older players to get stupid overpaid.

    Glad Streit isn’t our problem. Wish Subban was.

  33. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    BTW does this Krug remind anyone else of MAB?

    all that short chaos.

  34. SoxandOil says:

    I wonder if MacT sees a role for Fistric on the 4th line.

  35. uni says:

    Romulus Apotheosis,

    Rumour was that Subban refused to look at RFA offer sheets. It was Habs or bust. If that’s true (and I can’t think of a damn reason why he would do that) he really painted himself into a corner and management could just wait him out.

    I don’t know if that’s the contract I would have offered him though, because unless he’s just atypical and super loyal and happy to play for Canadiens and take big pay cuts, he’s really going to take them to the cleaners on his next contract. I don’t know how much of a factor goodwill plays into negotiations, but after the last contract, I can’t imagine Subban and his agent has any for management.

  36. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    uni:
    Romulus Apotheosis,

    Rumour was that Subban refused to look at RFA offer sheets.It was Habs or bust.If that’s true (and I can’t think of a damn reason why he would do that) he really painted himself into a corner and management could just wait him out.

    I don’t know if that’s the contract I would have offered him though, because unless he’s just atypical and super loyal and happy to play for Canadiens and take big pay cuts, he’s really going to take them to the cleaners on his next contract.I don’t know how much of a factor goodwill plays into negotiations, but after the last contract, I can’t imagine Subban and his agent has any for management.

    I hadn’t heard that rumor, but I think it is safe to say, Subban (unless his play falls off the mountain) is going to feed that contract back to Montreal in spades next time around.

    I note, however, that signing the low-ball offer didn’t seem to help him with those quarters that think he’s a “hot dog” and over-rated. So, I’m not sure his loyalty paid off perception wise…

    of course… that situation is like the “doomsday devise” in Dr. Strangelove. It doesn’t work if you don’t publish its existence.

  37. supernova says:

    uni,
    Romulus Apotheosis,

    I have been to a couple games in Montreal this year, I am fairly certain the rumor he refused to sign offer sheets is true.

    As well he is a huge Fan Favorite in Montreal, he is by far the biggest fan favorite, if he does indeed win the Norris (as reported by Kypreos) his folklore will only grow, his next contract will be massive as ownership will feel the pressure to keep him.

    The strange thing to me was Price was not regarded that highly, they think he is decent but not a big fan favorite.

  38. commonfan14 says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: On him vs. Kessel, you have to also remember the value of ELC years.

    I’m not sure how valuable Seguin’s ELC years have been cap-wise. The deal has carried a cap hit of $3.55 million, and at the end of it we find him playing 3rd line wing.

  39. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    commonfan14: I’m not sure how valuable Seguin’s ELC years have been cap-wise. The deal has carried a cap hit of $3.55 million, and at the end of it we find him playing 3rd line wing.

    If you judge him by this weird playoffs sure… but I think his first 3 years in the NHL were pretty damn good value for that money. last year he was great. this year very good. his first year, reasonable for a very young rookie.

  40. Mark-LW says:

    supernova,

    I didn’t know that the Canadiens confirm rumors to fans at the games. Why don’t they ever do the same for me at the ones I go to? Do you sit with Subban’s agent?

  41. Bag of Pucks says:

    Did anyone catch Elliotte Friedman’s advanced stats mention on the HNIC broadcast last night?

    He was basically citing an advanced stats site that talked about the large and beneficial impact Horton has had on his linemates’ production in both FLA (Weiss, Frolik) and BOS (Krejci, Lucic).

    The name of the site went by too fast (hockeyanalysis or maybe, hockeydb?). By chance, does anyone know the site Friedman referenced?

  42. Lois Lowe says:

    Really sad to hear about the kid in Latvia, Pelss or otherwise. Mental illness is real, scary and (somewhat) preventable. I hope everyone makes the effort to know if their loved ones are struggling with depression and if there’s anything that they can do to help shoulder the load.

  43. Wolfpack says:

    Bag of Pucks: Did anyone catch Elliotte Friedman’s advanced stats mention on the HNIC broadcast last night? He was basically citing an advanced stats site that talked about the large and beneficial impact Horton has had on his linemates’ production in both FLA (Weiss, Frolik) and BOS (Krejci, Lucic). The name of the site went by too fast (hockeyanalysis or maybe, hockeydb?). By chance, does anyone know the site Friedman referenced?

    You will want to check back and take a look at Coach’s Corner – it was Ron McLean that mentioned it to Cherry.

  44. Bag of Pucks says:

    Wolfpack: You will want to check back and take a look at Coach’s Corner – it was Ron McLean that mentioned it to Cherry.

    Damn my old guy memory!

    Thanks Wolfpack : )

  45. skinny65 says:

    Woodguy, when you talked about Burke you said he robbed Murray of Gardiner. Well people were talking about Beauchemin for the norris earlier in the year. So I dont think that trade was particularly one sided. Yeah Lupul has been great, but he’s always hurt. That one was pretty even
    Sorrry, cant let anyone talk up Burke too much!!!

  46. Captain Obvious says:

    The only way to build a powerhouse team is to get guys before they are stars because the price for so-called proven talent is so high.

    That’s why trading for Gardiner is such a good idea. He has the upside of Letang or Keith without the price tag. If he doesn’t improve at all he’s still in the top half of NHLdmen, and if he does improve you have a star player. That’s why it is such a no brainer to trade the #7 pick for him.

    1) Same likelyhood of getting a star (actually Gardiner is more likely but I’m trying to be fair)
    2) 100% more likely to be a good NHL player (Gardiner is good right now)
    3) Concentrates the talent in the present where it is needed (the Oilers window is now not four years from now–scorers peak early).

  47. Racki says:

    Bag of Pucks:
    Did anyone catch Elliotte Friedman’s advanced stats mention on the HNIC broadcast last night?

    He was basically citing an advanced stats site that talked about the large and beneficial impact Horton has had on his linemates’ production in both FLA (Weiss, Frolik) and BOS (Krejci, Lucic).

    The name of the site went by too fast (hockeyanalysis or maybe, hockeydb?). By chance, does anyone know the site Friedman referenced?

    Wolfpack: You will want to check back and take a look at Coach’s Corner – it was Ron McLean that mentioned it to Cherry.

    Not the first time I’ve heard Ron MacLean reference advanced stats. He mentioned Corsi once, and a website.. I want to say it was Behind The Net, but I’m not sure. I think Elliott Friedman has used shift info from timeonice.com before too.

  48. rickithebear says:

    Racki: Other wish list item… “stud” d-man

    Never quite got the idea of a stud Dman.
    there is 47 minutes of Even play
    6.5 minutes of PP
    6.5 minutes of PK
    When i look at a Dman. i am looking for GF and GA over league average
    2.33 Gf and 2.33 GA/60 @ even
    6.00/60 GF and GA on special teams.
    There are alot of offensive Dmen who’s points totals are padded on PP.
    but have no more Goal differential affect on the game than a great PK damn. who is likely getting 50 to 60 % less on the Cap.

    letang for example:
    he is 1.91GF/60 better than average on the PP with 4.25 minutes of play.
    that is 11 goals to the positive

    On the PK he is 6.52GA/60 for 2.1 minutes that is -2 goals.

    Even play Letang generates 23 ev p and averages 19EVA
    He is 1.14EVp/60 with a 52.3 zone start

    he played 60% of his time with Crosby, Malkin, Dupuis, Kunitz, Kenedy, Staal, Cooke, Neal.
    He is 2.71 GA/60 @ 17.2 minutes that is -11 goals versus average
    he is 3.32 GF/60 that is that is +25 goals.
    Letang is +23 goals for a season

    Petry:
    PK:
    4.22 GA/60 for 3.26 minutes +8 goals
    PP:
    Played one full season 6.51GF/60 @ 2.05 min +2 goals
    Even:
    19 even points and 18 EvA
    .91 EVp/60 49% zone start.
    Playing 39% of the time with Gagner, Hall, Eberle, Hemsky, RNH.
    2.24GA versu sfirst comp 17.25 min +2 G
    2.53 GF/60 +5 goals
    Petry is a +17G Dman.
    If letang came to our team he would get 2 min of pp cause he ssi not better than J. Schultz by result.
    that is 6 less goals to the good on the PP.
    which already makes him a +16 GD dman on our team.

    Plus getting to play 40 % of the time with the oilers elte versus 60% with pitts elite may have an adverse affect on his GF @ even.

    i am sorry but there is no way you can convince me a Letang for petry gains us goal differential.
    versus the league average. hockeys version of WAR only measured by goals over replacement (GOR)

  49. BlacqueJacque says:

    Yay, civilization!

    OK, what if MacT is pretending to talk about dealing down, but he’s really ready to deal for #5 if Barkov slips there, or if the scouts are in love with Monahan? Carolina already has two great centres. Maybe they’d be willing to settle for Nurse + our second?

  50. supernova says:

    Mark-LW:
    supernova,

    I didn’t know that the Canadiens confirm rumors to fans at the games. Why don’t they ever do the same for me at the ones I go to? Do you sit with Subban’s agent?

    Mark-LW,

    So time for shot taking hey

    I said they were my observations, and I believed them to be true. I didn’t say they were true, just that I could believe them.

    My observations.

    thanks, stay Classy Mark!

  51. supernova says:

    skinny65:
    Woodguy, when you talked about Burke you said he robbed Murray of Gardiner.Well people were talking about Beauchemin for the norris earlier in the year.So I dont think that trade was particularly one sided.Yeah Lupul has been great, but he’s always hurt.That one was pretty even
    Sorrry, cant let anyone talk up Burke too much!!!

    skinny65,

    fair points, this might be the inverse of the Kessel trade where Toronto fans have to be patient. This one didn’t get near the attention because Beauchmein plays on the west coast.

    Burke is a very efficient trade maker and he tends to be willing to give up value as well as get value, which is very fair.

    I think Hockey would benefit from Burke being in New York when Sather is done.

    I am not the biggest Burke fan but he would be the media attention that Hockey needs.

  52. Jordan says:

    rickithebear,

    That’s a really neat comparative analysis RICKITHEBEAR.

    I don’t suppose you’d do that for all the UFA/RFA D-men in the league, would you? =)

  53. Racki says:

    rickithebear: Never quite got the idea of a stud Dman.
    there is 47 minutes of Even play
    6.5 minutes of PP
    6.5 minutes of PK
    When i look at a Dman. i am looking for GF and GA over league average
    2.33 Gf and 2.33 GA/60 @ even
    6.00/60 GF and GA on special teams.
    There are alot of offensive Dmen who’s points totals are padded on PP.
    but have no more Goal differential affect on the game than a great PK damn. who is likely getting 50 to 60 % less on the Cap.

    letang for example:
    – snipped to keep this quote short

    Petry:
    – snipped to keep this quote short

    i am sorry but there is no way you can convince me a Letang for petry gains us goal differential.versus the league average. hockeys version of WAR only measuredby goals over replacement (GOR)

    That’s a whole lot to read through, but you’re going to write off the complete defenseman by comparing 2 players???

    What about Pronger/Lidstrom (when they played)… Weber.. Doughty.. Pietrangelo… etc..? I don’t think it would be a tough sell to show the impact a guy like Pronger had on the Oilers when he was here.

    For the record, I actually really like Petry, and think he’s a good d-man… good bang for your buck d-man (and from what I’ve seen of him in college, I think we’ve only scratched the surface). I don’t expect you to sit there and review every d-man in the league over a span of several years, but it seems like a weak theory to throw aside the positive impact of having an all-around d-man on your team by comparing a year of Kris Letang to a year of Jeff Petry.

    Also, my preference in d-men isn’t the same as many. When I say “stud” d-man, I’m talking about a guy who brings the complete package… physical, defensive, offensive, good puck handler.. a mix. But any d-man that I want on my team has to have a strong ability to defend, first and foremost. I think Letang’s bias has changed to more offensive minded since being with the Pens.

    Anyways, I wouldn’t be so quick to write off the impact of having a rock on the blueline from one comparison. Maybe you’ve done more research beyond this though..

  54. B.C.B says:

    Lowetide,

    I think MacT has
    April 25: Sign G Frans Tuohimaa (2011 draft pick).
    May 30: Oilers sign D Anton Belov as a free agent.
    June 10: Hire Dallas Eakins as head coach.

    Transactions under Tambo’s “leadership”:
    April 17: Sign college free agent Andrew Miller.
    April 20: Sign D Martin Gernat (2011 draft pick).

    Transactions of Oiler’s Property that have more to do with the Player rather than the GM:
    May 4: G Niko Hovinen signs with Metallurg Novokuznetsk (KHL)
    May 22: D Andy Sutton announces his retirement.
    June 6: L Antti Tyrvainen signs with Jokerit (SML).
    June 10: Teemu Hartikainen signs a two-year deal in UFA (KHL)

  55. rickithebear says:

    Racki: for me it is a way to assign value to a player and Dman.

    i would love letang for our team.

    But not for the only Dman. top 40
    1. tough Comp EV GA
    2. EVA
    3. PKGA
    4. HITS/gm
    5. Blocks/Gm
    6.Take aways/GM

    Getting letang without giving up Petry.
    YES!

    you need to look at all the playoff teams.
    lok at the cap hit for ther highest 3Fwd contracts
    then 4 & 5
    then 6 &7
    then 8 & 9
    Finally 10-14
    It gives you a good idea were our money needs to be.

    look at the distribution of cap value in terms of
    first D pair
    2nd D pair
    top 4 as a whole.

    We are paying 3.775M to J. schultz
    PK:
    .57 minutes 15.26GA/60 -8G for 34 seconds of pk per game
    PP;
    he had a massive drop in PP results
    6.75GF/60 for 2.96 min +3G
    Even
    Faced 3rd comp
    .96 EVp/60 @ 16.92 min
    2.22 GF is -3 goals
    3.47 GA is -27 goals

    this young man puts us -35GD for a full season.

    Mark Fistric:
    PK
    3.49GA/60 @ 2.05min +7 goals
    Even
    Faced 2nd/3rd comp
    13.13 min @ 45.7 zone start
    he was 1.10 EVP/60 tops for the team.
    2.01GF/60 is -6 goals
    1.46 GA/60 +16 goals

    So fistric facing lower 2nd pairing comp for 13 minutes
    and just pking 2 minutes a game was a +17 GD dman

    Playing a full season he would have equal GD affect as petry and letang on an oiler team.
    the difference would be a lower comp @ even.
    Elite pker and
    One of the best low comp GD in the League.
    Keep the guy!
    it allows for less efective results at a higher comp and still come out ahead!

    Isn’t that what you want?

  56. Hammers says:

    To the point . When players opt for Swedish /Finish/ Swiss league they know they won’t make it . But want more than AHL pays . OK with me . Question is when does McT sign Gags & Magnus or are they along with Horc & Hemmer trade pieces . Do we see deals like Hemmer & N.Schultz for Tyutin & 2nd rd pick . Horc & Omark to Detroit for ???? . Gags & Peckham to Toronto for ???? . The possibilities are out there but my point is I think you will see something packaged with any of the above players either dfraft picks or other players .

  57. sliderule says:

    LT
    On the show today you reported Horvat has been in town.

    Have they had any other interviews?

    It would piss off the various captains but I think MacT holds the pick and takes Monahan or Horvat

    In years past they have only brought in two or three but with possibility of moving down bringing in more might give inclination of their thinking

  58. Jordan says:

    rickithebear,

    To be fair, I want all of my D pairings to have + GD, and the bigger the +, the better.

    But, if the Oilers are committed to playing JS on the toughs next year… I’d much rather the team kill it on the dregs. I’d be interested to see if they run something like the Bulldog line of old, with MP, AL & TR/LO whose purpose is to outscore the other team’s 4th, and not beat the snot out of the other team’s 3rd D pairing.

  59. prairieschooner says:

    Hey LT

    Nice job with the quiz you ran on the show today!!
    I thought it was SNL hockey version of Jeopardy

  60. Lowetide says:

    prairieschooner:
    Hey LT

    Nice job with thequiz you ranon the show today!!
    I thought it was SNL hockey version of Jeopardy

    lol. Connor suggested it, pretty loose radio but it was fun all the same.

  61. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Lowetide: lol. Connor suggested it, pretty loose radio but it was fun all the same.

    I was stuck here in Toronto yelling “Frans Frans Frans you idiots!” at my computer.

    Yes, though… very entertaining radio.

  62. Lowetide says:

    sliderule:
    LT
    On the show today you reported Horvat has been in town.

    Have they had any other interviews?

    It would piss off the various captains but I think MacT holds thepick and takes Monahan or Horvat

    In years past they have only brought in two or three but with possibility of moving down bringing in more might give inclination of their thinking

    Story is up, Monahan also in town. I expect it’s between those two now, unless the Oil deal up for Barkov.

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