HARD TARGET SEARCH

Alright, listen up, people. Our fugitive has been on the run for ninety minutes. Average foot speed over uneven ground barring injuries is 4 miles-per-hour. That gives us a radius of six miles. What I want from each and every one of you is a hard-target search of every gas station, residence, warehouse, farmhouse, henhouse, outhouse and doghouse in that area. Checkpoints go up at fifteen miles. Your fugitive’s name is Dr. Richard Kimble. Go get him. -Deputy Marshall Samuel Gerard, The Fugitive

The Edmonton Oilers under new GM Craig MacTavish are going to attempt a massive transition: from promise to prime. For an organization that has not had success–and let’s face it the post-lockout Oilers have been the proverbial sisters of the poor–the climb from bad to average can take forever. I’ve mentioned the Jimmy Devellano book a million times, but in those pages is the story of a bad club climbing inch by inch and step by step out of the cellar and finally finding the range (14 years after drafting Yzerman).

I keep trying to marry the current roster with what it’ll look like when its successful, and it seems to easy. Add the 2000-01 third and fourth lines to the top 2lines currently and you’re good to go (that would be Nuge-Hall-Eberle, Gagner-Paajarvi-Yakupov from today and Marchant-Moreau-Grier and Murray-Cleary-Laraque from a dozen years ago) up front–and you know MacT put that team together with Kevin Lowe so they would seem to have a good shot at doing it.

History tells us that these things take time. Craig MacTavish is a smart guy–I think he’s the smartest guy in Oilers management since Sather and truly believe he has many of the things required to do the job–but the list of ‘things to do’ is enormous this year. If he can make all these moves and form a team that makes the second season in one summer, he’ll deserve the GM of the year award and he’ll get it. I do think we should pause for a moment and think about how many pieces need to be put in place, and to allow for the fact that not all of the ‘bets’ he makes will work out.

zeta-jones

BAKER’S DOZEN!

  1. Sign Sam Gagner to a multi-year deal that has begins with a number in the 4′s.
  2. Get Paajarvi signed and then find a role that suits him (suspect it’s 3line).
  3. Deal Hemsky for immediate help (even if its a checker).
  4. Deal Horcoff or slot him into the 3line job for which he is actually ideal.
  5. Find a 2line L who can complement Gagner-Yakupov with puck retrieval, blocking out the sun, etc)
  6. Find a 3line C and L to play with Paajarvi
  7. Find a 4line C to play with Smyth/Brown
  8. Decide on Lander/Belanger or other for 13F (or 14F if they go with 7D).
  9. Top 4 defender (a genuinely effective one, no ‘almosts or sortas’)
  10. Better blue depth (MacT has done this with Belov, plus Klefbom/Fedun/Marincin)
  11. Backup goalie
  12. AHL #1/NHL #3 goalie
  13. Sign Paul Ranger

On the eve of this summer exploding, I think we should take a moment and think about the size of the boulder MacT will be pushing up that very steep hill to the playoffs. It’s no longer Everest, but it’s still a very big mountain.

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95 Responses to "HARD TARGET SEARCH"

  1. mumbai max says:

    What do we know about the reported Hemsky for Zack Smith deal? Smoke or fire?

  2. Lowetide says:

    Hasn’t been reported yet, still just conversation online. I do think it makes some sense in that it addresses need for both teams. I would certainly hope the Oilers get a pick as well, but Hemsky’s value has always been overrated by Oiler fans according to the media who have gone on record in regard to 83.

    We’ll see. Smith for Hemsky is a tremendous deal for Bryan Murray, an absolute killer.

  3. zilong says:

    Fussy Britches with a few posts late last night, including this:

    @TreenasOil: Proposed deal from Coyotes K Yandle and J Melindy for Ales Hemsky Oilers 2nd rd and rights to Omark as per Garfield

    She also says there are multiple other teams with offers.

    Yandle has a name, but he’s not what we need. I’d be looking at immediately flipping him.

  4. DBO says:

    Gonna be 8 crazy nights. Or 30, I’m not sure.

    I mentioned a whole bunch of deals Friday. I still hope for a few solid trades before draft.
    - I doubt we get anything for Horc without eating cap.
    - I hope for more seasoned help in the Hemsky deal (I mentioned Stafford) but suspect we get a kid like Smith or Neiderreiter.
    - I found my fav dman target. Said deal Friday
    7th and Potter for coburn and 11th. May need to add a prospect but that is the kind of deal I hope for.

    The ufa ‘s are many. I think the compliance buyouts may surprise us with quality. We may get a big lw without getting in the bidding war I expect for Clowe and Bickell. Maybe Malone from Tampa on the cheap. Maybe Penner. Maybe Gilbert. Maybe all 3 (move Paajarvi to RW)

    The mantra may become “what’s old is new again “

  5. oilabroad says:

    I would take Smith for one year of Hemsky and never look back…. watching the scf, and seeing bickel, lucic etc, there is no doubt we need some of that in the top 6. Is there anyone out there who would fit the role that would be easier to pickup than Penner? He may not be ideal, but ideal is going to be a major overpay… Smith, Penner, a Lapierre type for 4th line and try to pry Boychuk out of Boston and we are good enough to get back into the dance imo

  6. godot10 says:

    If it is Hemsky for Zack Smith, so the Senators can test drive Hemsky with limited risk as an Alfredsson replacement, I think the Oilers are eating half of Hemsky’s salary. I wonder what else the Oilers woud be sending Ottawa’s way in that deal. Maybe the rights to Omark. Which would allow Ottawa a cheap look at two pretty good offensive forwards with no long term risk.

    Smith is a reasonable bet. Zibanejad makes Smith a very expensive 4th line centre in Ottawa. He would get a 3rd line shot in Edmonton.

  7. Zack says:

    Do you think it would be worth prying away Zenon Konopka from the Wild? I don’t think it would take too much and in my opinion he’d be a great option for 4C. It’d be hell playing against him, Smyth and Brown.

  8. Bruce McCurdy says:

    While it’s true Lowe & MacT put together the 2000-01 team, that fantastic MGM Line was the result of three separate trades, all of them made by Glen Sather in the mid-to-late 90s. Pretty significant swaps, all of them — the simplest was the one for one in which he got Todd Marchant for one Craig MacTavish.

    Airlift that line onto the current team & we’d be cooking with gas. If only …

  9. Woodguy says:

    Lowetide:
    Hasn’t been reported yet, still just conversation online. I do think it makes some sense in that it addresses need for both teams. I would certainly hope the Oilers get a pick as well, but Hemsky’s value has always been overrated by Oiler fans according to the media who have gone on record in regard to 83.

    We’ll see. Smith for Hemsky is a tremendous deal for Bryan Murray, an absolute killer.

    Smith at $1.88MM for 4 years has a lot of value if he can play 3C.

  10. Lowetide says:

    Woodguy: Smith at $1.88MM for 4 years has a lot of value if he can play 3C.

    And Ales Hemsky could score 80 points in Ottawa. I don’t think Smith for Hemsky straight up is full value.

  11. godot10 says:

    Zack:
    Do you think it would be worth prying away Zenon Konopka from the Wild? I don’t think it would take too much and in my opinion he’d be a great option for 4C. It’d be hell playing against him, Smyth and Brown.

    No. Two years ago, yes. But today, no. The Oilers need better than that. If Gagner is your 2nd line centre (for the next couple of years). Both your 3rd and 4th line centres have to be able to take D-zone draws against tougher opposition.

    You want a bunch of 3rd line type centres who can play both centre and wing and who can be relied on in a D zone faceoff situation. (Essentially, one really wants two pretty equal 3rd lines…a 3+, and a 3-).

    So you try to being collecting them. Zack Smith, Anton Lander.

    Smith between Lander(LW) and Paajarvi(RW) as a 3rd line in a couple of years. Two guys on it who can take a draw. Lander might be more suited to left wing at the NHL level at this point.

    I think Yandle would be a good alternative pickup for Hemsky plus. Not ideal, but he is a legit NHL defensemen. He would always be tradeable. The term is ideal to bridge the gap to the Oilers young defensemen. Klefbom, Marincin, and Gernat would not have to be rushed.

    The cap crunch takes away a lot of the Oilers competition in that trade from Eastern teams.

  12. Zack says:

    godot10,

    Oh, I definitely agree with the Smith trade/scenario, especially at his cap hit as Woodguy pointed out. Actually looking at Ottawa’s cap situation they are looking pretty good in the mean time, even with the contracts they have to sign in the next couple seasons. However, you don’t think Konopka would be a good fit for 4C, with his face-off history?

  13. Woodguy says:

    SInce Horcoff’s buyout is so cheap ($1.16 x 4 years) I can see MacT having a very low threshold for retaining salary in a Horcoff trade.

    If I’m MacT I don’t agree to anything past $500K unless I get something coming back, and the most likely Horcoff trades are 4th round picks coming back, which isn’t enough value to hold more salary.

    So the only fit I really see is a team that :

    a) Is a contender
    b) needs a 3/4C
    c) has lots of cap space

    Those 3 criteria narrow down the list to:

    Ottawa (if they trade Smith)
    St. Louis

    St. Louis has a good 3C in Sobatka, and Ott does with Smith, but there are 4C opening on both team and if the Oilers hold $500K, then Horcoff only actuall costs $3.5 and $2.5.

    I think that’s too rich for STL, so that deal only gets done if Oilers hold more salary and get something decent back.

    OTT might be a fit.

    I wonder if you can do a Hemsky + Horcoff (some a bit of retained salary) for Smith +?

    I don;’t believe the Greening rumours, leaves a huge hole at 2LW for OTT with no one coming to fill it…..unless they have a deal in priciple for MacArthur or Clarkson, and I doubt that is the case.

  14. mumbai max says:

    Woodguy: Smith at $1.88MM for 4 years has a lot of value if he can play 3C.

    I agree. Taking contracts into account this is a fair deal for the Oil straight up. Funny what seems to be happening with the value of Hemsky. First we overvalued him. Now it seems like we may have undervalued him. There seems to be a lot of action. No denying his skill set, and there is NONE of that in the UFA crop. MacT seems to have a great opportunity here. Hemsky for Smith would be acceptable, but it seems there may be a BIGGER pot of gold at the end of the Hemmer rainbow!

  15. Woodguy says:

    Lowetide: And Ales Hemsky could score 80 points in Ottawa. I don’t think Smith for Hemsky straight up is full value.

    And Hemsky could also play 40 games and get 18pts.

    I love Hemsky, but he is still has injury risk associated with him and a $5MM price tag.

    His offensive upside gives him value, but that value is tempered.

    Would love to get as many 2nd rounders in trade this year as possible.

  16. Woodguy says:

    Zack:
    Do you think it would be worth prying away Zenon Konopka from the Wild? I don’t think it would take too much and in my opinion he’d be a great option for 4C. It’d be hell playing against him, Smyth and Brown.

    I don’t have time to dig up the numbers, but I looked closely at Knopka a few times and basically you’re better off with Smithson.

    In other words, you are better off without either.

    Neither are NHL caliber players.

  17. oilabroad says:

    Lowetide,

    and if hemsky does score 80 points, he will sign for big dollars with another team the next summer. I would rather take the value contract for 4 years than 1 year of Hemsky…. Every year we seem to have the same conversation about Hemsky, and every spring we talk about how we should traded him ealier in the year.. time to move on, Hemsky has no more 80 pt seasons in him

  18. Rondo says:

    DBO,
    “7th and Potter for coburn and 11th. May need to add a prospect but that is the kind of deal I hope for.”

    Braydon Coburn should be in his prime, He is not physical , not much offense, plays big minutes.

    In 2yrs Darnell Nurse will be a better player than Braydon Coburn

    No way would I make that trade

  19. Lowetide says:

    Woodguy: And Hemsky could also play 40 games and get 18pts.

    I love Hemsky, but he is still has injury risk associated with him and a $5MM price tag.

    His offensive upside gives him value, but that value is tempered.

    Would love to get as many 2nd rounders in trade this year as possible.

    You know the secondary numbers better than I do, but the Smith evidence isn’t backed up by 4 years of data and we don’t know who’s zooming who in the capital.

    I understand there’s risk, but Smith isn’t exactly a proven 3line option. He had a solid year and it looks like this season was uneven, and counting on him for offense would be unwise. So, that’s a guy who can play for you, but should be available for less value than 83.

    I understand completely the idea behind the deal, but would hope there’s (at the very least) a 2nd rd pick as a lottery ticket for the future in the deal.

  20. Woodguy says:

    Lowetide: You know the secondary numbers better than I do, but the Smith evidence isn’t backed up by 4 years of data and we don’t know who’s zooming who in the capital.

    I understand there’s risk, but Smith isn’t exactly a proven 3line option. He had a solid year and it looks like this season was uneven, and counting on him for offense would be unwise. So, that’s a guy who can play for you, but should be available for less value than 83.

    I understand completely the idea behind the deal, but would hope there’s a 2nd rd pick as a lottery ticket for the future in the deal.

    I can see your point.

    Another 2nd is valuable this year.

  21. G Money says:

    As I see it, point by point:

    1 – Samwise is a capable 2C with acknowledged concerns (faceoffs). I think his defensive zone concerns are less than stated – I am in the “blame Ralph’s system” camp. He was better the previous year. I worry that any reasonable contract will result in Samwise taking the same kind of heat from fans that Horcoff has taken all these years. Fans seem to expect a perfect 1C (scoring, size, 2-way play) for the cost of a 2C, and anything less will be deemed a ripoff.

    2 – I think Paajarvi is ideal as 3L with speed to play up the lineup once in a while. 2L is a misfit, don’t think MPS has the hands or the meanness.

    3 – a healthy Hemsky is a legit 1R, but unfortunately his play the last two years has vastly degraded his value, and understandably so. He and some salary goes for one of 3C or 4C I would guess

    4 – I like Horcoff better as 4C; I don’t think he’s “ideal” at 3C anymore. I think his speed is starting to visibly leave him, and will have him in tough checking as 3C. Should still be a solid 4C.

    5 – Big 2L = priority #1 for me. There are too many holes in our D to fix in one year. If we can get our 2nd line to be an outscorer, or even a sawoff, it will be a huge swing from last year, even with so-so D. This is what I would trade #7 + a defensive prospect for. The question is – will anyone be available. Pray for cap fallout.

    6 – 3C/3L – hopefully this is something that can be found in a Hemsky trade/FA for only a mild overpay

    7 – 4C – Horcoff or a Horcoff swap preferred over yet another FA overpay. I like Jones better than Brown for 4R, at least the guy can play. He might even be available at a discount due to being slowed up by injury. I am comfortable that a 4th line of Smyth/Horcoff/Jones is a capable one (and vastly improved over last year).

    8 – 13F – Belanger needs to go; it seems clear as an outside observer that at least some of his struggles are because he doesn’t want to be here. Don’t need that grief. Jones as 4R puts Brown as 13F. Leave Lander to ripen on the farm another year, he might be a solid 4C replacement if Horc stays around another year.

    9 – Top 4D = Priority #2 (after 2L), but I’m not sure if one will be available this season. Always at a premium in trades and always at a ludicrous premium in FA, especially for the “Must Overpay Oilers”.

    10 – Better blue depth … I think a swap of Whitney for Belov is a significant improvement, without even seeing the guy. Don’t think Whitney would make the Russian national team, they like players with two feet! Potter as 5D is OK with me, he’s better than given credit for, and fine for this year on 3rd pairing. On a good team (i.e. after NEXT summer), he needs to be 7D. That might be all on this front this year. Would like to see Fistric back, but only at a reasonable price, and maybe not needed if we do point #13.

    11 – Backup goalie. Back when it was a buyer’s market for goalies, Tambo paid a truffle price for a fermented potato. Now it’s more of a seller’s market, or maybe at least a balanced market, and we may *have* to pay a premium for an average backup goalie.

    12 – AHL #1/NHL #3. Danis for the first. Second TBD. See point #11

    13 – Ranger. See point #10

  22. PunjabiOil says:

    Would prefer Colin Greening instead

  23. Lowetide says:

    Here’s a nice little hat tip to systems, coaching and experience. The Senators have 12 forwards in the black CorsiON, Edmonton has 12 forwards in the red CorsiON.

    Question: if Smith had played in Edmonton this season, what are the odds he would have been the fourth Oiler forward in the black?

  24. Mr DeBakey says:

    So the only fit I really see is a team that :

    a) Is a contender
    b) needs a 3/4C
    c) has lots of cap space

    Those 3 criteria narrow down the list to:

    Ottawa (if they trade Smith)
    St. Louis

    Brooklyn!
    To me the Islanders are the answer.
    Rising team, Cap space, on a budget.

    Especially if they want Strome & Niederreiter on the big club next year.
    Put Horcov in between them and Bob’s yer uncle.

    And I know the Isles are scrapping with Niederreiter.

    For a third.

  25. Rondo says:

    I think Fedor Tyutin would be the right player for the Oilers to go after for many reasons.

  26. theres oil in virginia says:

    If I go to my neighbor and ask him to sell me a part of his property (which adjoins mine), I’m not likely to get a good deal. I need to buy (obviously, since I approached him about it), but he doesn’t need to sell (he was just minding his own business when I came along). Unless I find a neighbor who is in need of my cash, I’m screwed. Hopefully, MacT is finding his “neighbors” that are in need as well. So, does Ottawa need a year of Hemsky? Enough to give up four years of a value-priced role player? And a 2nd round pick?? Or was Murray just minding his own business when MacT came along with a pocket full of Hemsky?

  27. Lowetide says:

    Rondo:
    I thinkFedor Tyutin would be the right player for the Oilers to go after for many reasons.

    Me too.

  28. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Did anyone else have trouble getting on to the site in the last half hour?

    I thought LT forgot to pay his web bills again. ha!

  29. godot10 says:

    Lowetide: You know the secondary numbers better than I do, but the Smith evidence isn’t backed up by 4 years of data and we don’t know who’s zooming who in the capital.

    I understand there’s risk, but Smith isn’t exactly a proven 3line option. He had a solid year and it looks like this season was uneven, and counting on him for offense would be unwise. So, that’s a guy who can play for you, but should be available for less value than 83.

    I understand completely the idea behind the deal, but would hope there’s (at the very least) a 2nd rd pick as a lottery ticket for the future in the deal.

    The pre-2005 Edmonton Oilers and the current NY Islanders built their teams in part by scouring the bottom half of NHL rosters and the AHL.

    Jason Smith, Steve Staios, Marty Reasoner, Mike Grier, Jim Dowd, Tommy Salo, etc.

    Zack Smith is a far better risk reward than a Horcoff-like 30-something contract with large dollars
    and duration for a player soon to be on decline like Clowe or Weiss.

  30. Captain Happy says:

    The invites to the Swedish Olympic team:

    Goalies

    Jhonas Enroth
    Viktor Fasth
    Robin Lehner
    Henrik Lundqvist

    Defencemen

    Jonas Brodin
    Alexander Edler
    Oliver Ekman Larsson
    Jonathan Ericsson
    Nicklas Grossman
    Erik Gustafsson
    Victor Hedman
    Niklas Hjalmarsson
    Erik Karlsson
    Niklas Kronwall
    Douglas Murray
    Johnny Oduya
    Henrik Tallinder

    Forwards

    Patrik Berglund
    Nicklas Bäckström
    Jimmie Ericsson
    Loui Eriksson
    Johan Franzén
    Carl Hagelin
    Patric Hornqvist
    Marcus Johansson
    Marcus Krüger
    Gabriel Landeskog
    Oscar Lindberg
    Joel Lundqvist
    Gustav Nyquist
    Niklas Persson
    Daniel Sedin
    Henrik Sedin
    Alexander Steen
    Henrik Zetterberg

  31. Lowetide says:

    Godot10: I understand, but Hemsky? REALLY?

  32. Ca$h-Money! says:

    Lowetide,

    The problem becomes, Hemsky hasn’t really had a “good year” since 2008-2009. He’s either put up good numbers in injury shortened seasons, or very mediocre numbers in slightly-less injury shortened seasons. That’s almost like signing an aging goalie because he won a cup for or five years ago… wait…

    Anyway, point is that we all know he’s talented, but it’s impossible to get “full value” for that commodity. It’s like when I’m discussing higher-end houses with people. They’ll ask me what it’s worth: my first answer is always “a house is worth what someone will pay for it”. When you are looking at higher end homes, the fact that it’s “worth” $1,000,000 (I’m in Lethbridge so keep that relative value in mind) doesn’t mean much. If it’s a two storey home, and there are only 3 people in town interested in buying a million dollar home right now, and they all want bungalows… then it isn’t worth $1,000,000, it’s only worth whatever the discount on $1,000,000 needs to be to get those buyers to change their tastes.

    Hemsky is a $1,000,000 house in Lethbridge.

    I’m 100% sure I’m the only person that has ever called him that.

  33. PunjabiOil says:

    Not sure if Bob Stauffer is hinting at the Oilers interest?

    Bob Stauffer ‏@Bob_Stauffer 9h

    Am hearing that is sounds like the #fFlyers might be shopping a guy like Braydon Coburn

  34. theres oil in virginia says:

    Ca$h-Money!:

    Hemsky is a $1,000,000 house in Lethbridge.

    …and nobody knows the extent of the termite damage. (Regehr being the chief termite.)

  35. Lowetide says:

    PunjabiOil:
    Not sure if Bob Stauffer is hinting at the Oilers interest?

    Bob Stauffer ‏@Bob_Stauffer 9h

    Am hearing that is sounds like the #fFlyers might be shopping a guy like Braydon Coburn

    They should be. Coburn was a guy I wanted last year when he was UFA, didn’t look at this season but he’s a very nice option.

  36. Rondo says:

    Lowetide,

    I don’t like him, he should be in his prime, he is not physical and does not put up much points even though he plays big minutes. The cost would be too high. Fedor Tyutin is much better.

  37. Lowetide says:

    Rondo:
    Lowetide,

    I don’tlike him,he should be in his prime, he is not physical and does not put up much points even though he plays big minutes.The cost would be too high. Fedor Tyutin is much better.

    Tyutin is better agreed, but we don’t know if he’s available.

  38. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    If there is no trade for Horcov, such that he has to go and do his own dirty work… the relation between the two sides must be either soured or simply amicably ended for them to entertain buying him out.

    We need NHL Cs and we have one, a good 3C.

    It is starting to feel like maybe we are going to walk away simply to solve an HR problem rather than addressing team needs.

    If there is no trade, sit him down, make nice and say we’ll try again… but in in the mean time play well for us and you may just find yourself on that contender.

  39. Woodguy says:

    Zack Smith’s WOWY last year

    Small sample, but a snapshot

    Top 15 line mates in descending order in terms of most TOI together to least

    Team mate – Shot Attemps For together – Team mate without – Difference

    NEIL, CHRIS 54.2 54.3 -0.1
    METHOT, MARC 55.2 51.4 3.8
    GONCHAR, SERGEI 54.4 52.8 1.6
    GREENING, COLIN 55.1 52.5 2.6
    PHILLIPS, CHRIS 50.5 52.4 -1.9
    GRYBA, ERIC 46.3 49.6 -3.3
    BISHOP, BEN 52 48.6 3.4
    WIERCIOCH, PATRICK 54.4 58.9 -4.5
    DZIURZYNSKI, DAVE 43.7 48 -4.3
    BENOIT, ANDRE 52.8 57 -4.2
    ALFREDSSON, DANIEL 60.1 53.5 6.6
    LATENDRESSE, GUILLAUME 48.7 53.3 -4.6
    KARLSSON, ERIK 63.9 56.4 7.5
    CONDRA, ERIK 49 56.7 -7.7
    MICHALEK, MILAN 66.7 53.2 13.5

    If we call Neil a wash, then 7/14 team mates were better with him

    The Dmen Benoit and Weirchioch played behind the 1st line mostly when not with Smith so the drop there isn’t a terrible as it looks.

    Looking at this and his other shot differential stuff, zone starts (toughest C on the team) leads me to believe this guy could be a player and 4 years at $1.88MM might be equal value for 1 year of Hemsky.

    If he keeps improving under Eakin, the Oilers can win this trade as a cheap and effective 3C is a pretty valuable tool.

  40. DBO says:

    Lowetide,

    Ha. floated that Friday Mr. Stauffer. hope i helped manifest it because I think he is as good a fit as we can find.

  41. Woodguy says:

    Oops, missed taking out Bishop.

    Sorry

  42. Lowetide says:

    Woodguy:
    Zack Smith’s WOWY last year

    Looking at this and his other shot differential stuff, zone starts (toughest C on the team) leads me to believe this guy could be a player and 4 years at $1.88MM might be equal value for 1 year of Hemsky. If he keeps improving under Eakin, the Oilers can win this trade as a cheap and effective 3C is a pretty valuable tool.

    I’m warming up to the idea of Smith (I can cheer for Hemsky in Ottawa no problem) but hope to hell the Oilers get a pick too. If Hemsky has a strong season with the Senators–and he could–then this trade could look ridiculous in a hurry.

  43. Woodguy says:

    This ignores some stuff, but fun to post:

    Hemksy 5v5 pts/60

    11/12 1.57
    12/13 1.40

    Smith 5v5 pts/60

    11/12 1.50
    12/13 1.10

    Smith had slightly harder zone starts and less offensive team mates.

    Makes the deal look much closer when you consider the contract length (a very key factor in value of a player)

  44. DBO says:

    wow
    Jonathan Bernier has been traded to Toronto for Matt Frattin, Ben Scrivens, and a second round pick in 2014 or 2015 (Toronto’s option)

  45. Hall Awaits says:

    James Mirtle ‏@mirtle 23 Jun
    Leafs acquire Bernier from the Kings for Matt Frattin, Ben Scrivens and second round pick in 2014 or 2015.

    After seeing the price, i’m kind of glad Oil had no shot at Bernier. I thought Scrivens had a legitimate chance of ending up on the Oilers roster next season to. Back to Khudobin daydreaming I suppose…

  46. Lowetide says:

    DBO:
    wow
    Jonathan Bernier has been traded to Toronto for Matt Frattin, Ben Scrivens, and a second round pick in 2014 or 2015 (Toronto’s option)

    I don’t like that trade for Toronto or for the Oilers new division.

  47. DBO says:

    Lowetide,

    agreed. frattin solid. scrivens solid backup and they save money. kings did well

  48. fifthcartel says:

    Damn, Matt Frattin would have been a solid depth pick up. Same with Scrivens. So, if there are supposed trades….. can’t they be announced as well?

  49. DBO says:

    fifthcartel,

    trades can happen right now. no waiting.

  50. LMHF#1 says:

    Turning over a team shouldn’t be near as hard as some of these guys make it seem. I’d wager most are simply too cautious or not given license from above. They maintain commitments to players who could be readily replaced and it holds them back.

    What I do find odd is that MacTavish is not following an iron rule of business/politics. Under promise, then over deliver. He should be playing this closer to the vest and then blow people away. If he comes up short the way the team has in recent years, he’ll be bbq’ed.

  51. Young Oil says:

    Purely looking at save percentage and age:

    Bernier last year: 0.922, age 24
    Scrivens last year: 0.915, age 26
    Reimer last year: 0.924, age 25

    All this when LA is clearly a superior team.

    I am baffled as to why the Leafs felt the need for Bernier when they already have a competent 1/2 tandem. How is Bernier an upgrade above Reimer? He isn’t even a huge upgrade over Scrivens (in my opinion), certainly the gap isn’t enough between them to warrant giving up a 2/3 line winger AND a 2nd round pick?

    I know there are more important statistics than save percentage, but no matter how I look at it, it doesn’t make sense.

  52. fifthcartel says:

    DBO,

    Hmm, makes me question why wait till after final. I doubt BOS/CHI are involved.

  53. Captain Happy says:

    Young Oil:
    Purely looking at save percentage and age:

    Bernier last year: 0.922, age 24
    Scrivens last year: 0.915, age 26
    Reimer last year: 0.924, age 25

    All this when LA is clearly a superior team.

    I am baffled as to why the Leafs felt the need for Bernier when they already have a competent 1/2 tandem. How is Bernier an upgrade above Reimer? He isn’t even a huge upgrade over Scrivens (in my opinion), certainly the gap isn’t enough between them to warrant giving up a 2/3 line winger AND a 2nd round pick?

    I know there are more important statistics than save percentage, but no matter how I look at it, it doesn’t make sense.

    Bernier (.922) had a better save percentage than Quick (.902) last season playing behind the same team.

    Bernier is only 24 years old and has massive upside after spending a few years being tutored by Ron Hextall.

    That a team was able to acquire him for a depth player and goalie who wasn’t in the teams plans is quite a coup.

    From the Kings POV, they acquired a 25 year old who has great wheels and a great shot although he’s been inconsistent and, since Frattin is being paid only $925K, he’s a great value.

  54. cc says:

    I just wanted to give a couple of thoughts from both sides with regards to the rumored Smith vs. Hemsky deal. As an Oiler fan living in Ottawa. I think on the surface this deal works for both sides.

    First off from the Sens point they get the better player in the deal. They have a lot of depth down the middle; Spezza, Turris, Zibanejad, Pageau, O’Brien, Derek Grant, Jim O’Brien. I know I’m missing some people. They can easily fill out the bottom two lines.

    From an Oilers standpoint. They don’t need to replace Hemsky, they need to replace Horcoff. Essentially they are replacing Horcoff with this deal. Replacing Horcoff is harder than replacing Hemsky. Looking at the Free Agency market it’s easier to sign a FA winger than it is to sign a two-way center. On the FA they can then fill the void with Hemsky by signing either Stalberg or MacArthur (who each have put up more PTS/60 the last 3 season than Hemsky) at less money than Hemsky was scheduled to make. Acquiring Smith gives the Oilers an easier approach to Free Agency. So the Oilers might lose the deal from the player vs player standpoint. But they can win the deal with how they fill their roster. Think of it the same way as how the Bruins lost the deal with SJ for Thornton. But saving the capspace allowed them to go out to get Chara. Obviously not on the same scale, but it’s just how you fill out the roster. So with those thoughts, who cares if Hemsky out performs Smith. It doesn’t matter he wasn’t part of the Oilers plans and the Oilers needed to fill a gap in their lineup.

    Now if you compare Smith versus Horcoff. (who is the player in the lineup Smith will be replacing). First realize Smith is signed for 4 more seasons and his cap-hit is 3.7 million less than Horcoff. Smith is younger, bigger, cheaper with similar Pts/60 & CorsiRelQoC. Let’s say they buy out Horcoff after this deal from a cap standpoint the OIlers would be sitting pretty they could easily afford Stalberg & MacArthur. So let me ask people would you do this deal?

    Hemsky & Horcoff for Zack Smith, Clarke MacArthur& Victor Stalberg (with probably 3 million dollars of cap space to spare).

  55. gcw_rocks says:

    Hemsky for Smith works for me. Smith and Paajarvi is start of a decent third line.

  56. Captain Happy says:

    Ron Hextall on the Bernier trade:

    http://youtu.be/h3L-7UC0uQo

  57. Young Oil says:

    Captain Happy,

    Those are all good points, but I still don’t see why Toronto needed Bernier, when Reimer has been doing so well for them, and is of a similar age.

    Don’t get me wrong, Reimer+Bernier in theory will be a great 1/2 tandem, but personally I think the Kings won this trade, considering Bernier didn’t fit in their plans either. Maybe I’m just too high on Frattin, I’ve really liked what I’ve seen from him.

    Also, I believe that there had been many reports that Bernier wanted a trade because he wanted to be a clear cut #1 goaltender (correct me if I’m wrong, I’m not totally sure on this). Ideally (for the Leafs), this new situation it will create healthy competition in Toronto, but it will likely just cause drama.

  58. dominoguy says:

    Because Bernier is now a trade piece for Leafs?

  59. Captain Happy says:

    Young Oil:
    Captain Happy,

    Those are all good points, but I still don’t see why Toronto needed Bernier, when Reimer has been doing so well for them, and is of a similar age.

    Don’t get me wrong, Reimer+Bernier in theory will be a great 1/2 tandem, but personally I think the Kings won this trade, considering Bernier didn’t fit in their plans either. Maybe I’m just too high on Frattin, I’ve really liked what I’ve seen from him.

    Also, I believe that there had been many reports that Bernier wanted a trade because he wanted to be a clear cut #1 goaltender (correct me if I’m wrong, I’m not totally sure on this). Ideally (for the Leafs), this new situation it will create healthy competition in Toronto, but it will likely just cause drama.

    Two young, quality goaltenders is a very nice problem to have and, if the two of them have to fight for the starters role, all the better.

    I also like Frattin a lot but you have to give up quality to get quality and replacing a winger is a lot easier than getting a solid young goaltender.

    Lombardi is obviously interested in making his team younger, faster and cheaper…exactly what he should be doing at this point.

    A line with Toffoli, Frattin and Linden Vey should be fun to watch in a couple of years.

  60. jonrmcleod says:

    LT, I sort of mentioned you in my sermon today. It had something to do with Al Gore.

  61. jonrmcleod says:

    PunjabiOil,

    Spector mentioned Coburn to me on Twitter the other day. Perhaps he heard the Oilers are interested.

  62. PunjabiOil says:

    I generally don’t buy the idea that MacT has some deals lined up and is waiting for the Finals to be over until it is announced.

    He may be working on it, but I don’t believe the deals are done.

    That said, if this purported theory is true, then perhaps it’s a big name like Luongo and the Oilers are civilly keeping it under the wraps to prevent NHL disruption?

  63. Young Oil says:

    Captain Happy,

    I’ve just been paranoid of letting two young goaltenders battle it out ever since the debacle with Deslauriers and Dubnyk. Obviously Bernier and Reimer are vastly superior to Deslauriers and Dubnyk, and the situation is different because there isn’t a veteran goaltender (Roloson) in the mix, but the risk of ruining a goaltender’s confidence and seeing a drop in their quality of play is always there. But I guess there’s an associated risk with any trade, and goaltenders need to have a strong mind in order to have success. But I digress.

    Bottom line, I’m just very jealous of the Kings, because I was drooling over the possibility of having Paajarvi, Zach Smith, and Frattin as a 3rd line for a decade.

  64. Lowetide says:

    jonrmcleod:
    LT, I sort of mentioned you in my sermon today. It had something to do with Al Gore.

    Was it the EVILS of the Al Gore?

  65. jonrmcleod says:

    Lowetide,

    No, I was talking about how some people wrongly credit Al Gore with inventing the internet. I said, “I know some people who refer to the internet as the ‘Al Gore.’” And, no, I wasn’t preaching about the internet. It was an illustration.

  66. DBO says:

    well LT you mentioned him before.

    Darren Dreger ‏@DarrenDreger 52s
    Some rumblings Phaneuf may be in play. Nonis says he will trade just about anyone, but says no one has called on the captain…yet. #TSN

  67. Lowetide says:

    jonrmcleod:
    Lowetide,

    No, I was talking about how some people wrongly credit Al Gore with inventing the internet. I said, “I know some people who refer to the internet as the ‘Al Gore.’” And, no, I wasn’t preaching about the internet. It was an illustration.

    Cool. Well, I’m not wrong about it, just quoting Mr. Gore himself.

  68. VanOil says:

    Braydon Coburn is out with a separated shoulder. This makes him, for better or worse, an honorary Oiler already. I think there are better options.

    I thought Scrivens would follow Eakins to the Oilers, to bad he is a fine #2. LA is shaping up to be the next Detroit (perennial contenders) of the new Western conference.

    While we are all excited to see the future now, September is a long way off. Making to many commitments now before the Buyouts fill in the UFA roster seems rash. I am wary of UFAs in general as I do not like overpaying for older players but this year could have a lot of very rich players looking for a job that is exciting and fulfilling rather than high paying.

    Zack Smith would be playing up the line up the line up a 3C. I am not opposed to him, just happier to project him as 3C/4C rather than a straight 3C. I agree with LT, I would like a 2nd rounder coming back to balance the deal and would feel comfortable cheering for Hemsky with the Sens.

    A 3d line of Smith, Paajarvi and Rajala would impress my more than Lander as you should have (to paraphrase MacT) at least some one on the line that is a threat to score.

  69. oilersfan says:

    I had thought the rumour was Zack Smith AND Colin Greening for Hemsky, no?

    That would balance it out and give the OIlers 2/3 of a decent third line, add MPS and it is a decent one.

  70. Smarmy says:

    Have teams always been allowed to trade during the cup finals?

    Seems sort of foolish. Imagine if the Leafs had acquired Luongo. Attention would be away from the final. Seems silly.

  71. fifthcartel says:

    I thought it was ‘frowned upon’, but it could have to do with the possibility of a Bernier offer sheet.

  72. jonrmcleod says:

    Lowetide,

    An excerpt from my sermon manuscript:

    Who invented the internet? Sometimes (former U.S. Vice President) Al Gore gets credit for inventing the internet. (I know of some people who refer to the internet as the “Al Gore.”) Gore never actually said he invented the internet. But he did say, “During my service in the United States Congress, I took the initiative in creating the internet.”

  73. Gerta Rauss says:

    Yeah, I think the league would prefer that trades take place after the finals are completed, but it’s not written in stone. I don’t think it’s a coincidence this trade was announced on an off day.

  74. Gerta Rauss says:

    jonrmcleod,

    I hope you’re working with the guy upstairs to get us a 1LD-Mac T needs all the help he can get.

  75. speeds says:

    Tweet from Josh Rimer:

    Hearing Leafs have had discussions with Oilers about Sam Gagner. Leafs are looking for a young centre and he certainly fits the bill.— Josh Rimer (@JoshRimerHockey) June 23, 2013

  76. Rondo says:

    Gerta Rauss,

    Braydon Coburn is an overrated D-man . If they do trade for him I hope they don’t give up much. Philly is trading him for a reason.

  77. jonrmcleod says:

    Gerta Rauss,

    I can’t get through. There are too many people praying from the Vatican of the NHL (i.e., Toronto).

  78. RexLibris says:

    Lowetide: Was it the EVILS of the Al Gore?

    More likely about the ELVIS of the Al Gore.

  79. PunjabiOil says:

    How are Coburn’s underlying numbers?

    If Oilers trade Gagner to Toronto, you’d hope an extended Phaneuf would be coming back the other way?

  80. Lowetide says:

    jonrmcleod:
    Lowetide,

    An excerpt from my sermon manuscript:

    Who invented the internet? Sometimes (former U.S. Vice President) Al Gore gets credit for inventing the internet. (I know of some people who refer to the internet as the “Al Gore.”) Gore never actually said he invented the internet. But he did say, “During my service in the United States Congress, I took the initiative in creating the internet.”

    Is this a ‘define what is is” conversation? :-) Anyway, I’m pleased to have been part of your sermon and hope God thinks better of me for it. Lord knows I need the help!

  81. Gerta Rauss says:

    Rondo,

    It wasn’t me pushing for Coburn, although I wouldn’t mind him. I think Meszaros could fill a similar role and would come much cheaper.(and provide Philly with similar cap relief)

    I like Tyutin out of CBJ, but for the life of me, I can’t understand why the Jackets would trade him

  82. jonrmcleod says:

    Lowetide,

    I hesitate to preach on a hockey blog. The anecdote on Al Gore was illustrating how salvation is purely by God’s grace. No credit should be given to man. In other words, religion is not the way of acceptance with God–it’s the cross.

  83. Woodguy says:

    speeds:
    Tweet from Josh Rimer:

    Based on the LAK deal I hope MacT does some deals with Nonis.

  84. Smarmy says:

    Woodguy: Based on the LAK deal I hope MacT does some deals with Nonis.

    Nonis (to me) is basically a slightly better Tambillini who has the benefit of looking like a giant baby.

  85. Gerta Rauss says:

    Woodguy,

    Sounds like the Leafs retained some salary in the deal to boot. Nice deal for Lombardi.

  86. jonrmcleod says:

    I would think that it’s highly possible that the Oilers could pry Gardiner from the Leafs in a Gagner deal.

  87. VanOil says:

    PunjabiOil: Braydon Coburn

    Coburn most important number is 4.5M cap hit and an even higher salary. Phili even after the Briere buyout are in Cap hell. Phili need to get rid of him but can really afford to keep any salary or take any back. Sure the will likely also buyout Bryzgalov but then replace him with who? Luongo?

    The only cap page I have ever seen as brutal as this was when Chicago last won the Cup. Mind you they had just won the Cup, Phili did not even make the playoffs. Some smart GM is going to fleece a few usable parts from Phili this some. I don’t know if would Oilers want any, Coburn does not seem ideal.

  88. VanOil says:

    jonrmcleod:
    Lowetide,
    I hesitate to preach on a hockey blog.

    Thats OK, it balances todays news that one of the most devote atheist in hockey (Scrivens) is going to the city of Angels.

  89. Lowetide says:

    jonrmcleod:
    Lowetide,

    I hesitate to preach on a hockey blog. The anecdote on Al Gore was illustrating how salvation is purely by God’s grace. No credit should be given to man. In other words, religion is not the way of acceptance with God–it’s the cross.

    It’s cool, I don’t mind and maybe I’ll learn something. :-) And as proof, this is the third time you’ve quoted your sermon and I finally get it! :-)

  90. PaperDesigner says:

    VanOil: Coburn most important number is 4.5M cap hit and an even higher salary. Phili even after the Briere buyout are in Cap hell. Phili need to get rid of him but can really afford to keep any salary or take any back. Sure the will likely also buyout Bryzgalov but then replace him with who? Luongo?

    The only cap page I have ever seen as brutal as this was when Chicago last won the Cup. Mind you they had just won the Cup, Phili did not even make the playoffs. Some smart GM is going to fleece a few usable parts from Phili this some. I don’t know if would Oilers want any, Coburn does not seem ideal.

    If you’re shipping out Horcoff and maybe all Philadelphia wants is cap relief, maybe Coburn is a guy you can get for free?

    The problem is that the guy that the Oilers need is a player type that’s probably the hardest to acquire–the dominant number one defenceman. A player who is so good, he can stabilize a number 3 or 4 defenceman into a number two, and takes up enough hard minutes that the second pairing can start to do more than simply survive their minutes.

    The problem is… how do you get that guy? He doesn’t get dealt very often.

    I don’t know if adding another guy who is a competent player, but not truly dominant, does enough. It might mean the first pairing will get run over, but they will allow the second and third pairings to do okay. Is that enough? I don’t know.

  91. spoiler says:

    Gerta Rauss:
    jonrmcleod,

    I hope you’re working with the guy upstairs to get us a 1LD-Mac T needs all the help he can get.

    We Hockey Fans are very fortunate in that we are able to pray to a Living Gord.

  92. spoiler says:

    jonrmcleod:
    Lowetide,

    An excerpt from my sermon manuscript:

    Who invented the internet? Sometimes (former U.S. Vice President) Al Gore gets credit for inventing the internet. (I know of some people who refer to the internet as the “Al Gore.”) Gore never actually said he invented the internet. But he did say, “During my service in the United States Congress, I took the initiative in creating the internet.”

    Well done. It is totally an urban myth that Al Gore said he “invented” the Internet. Has a life of its own, that one.

  93. "Steve Smith" says:

    Rondo,

    Thank you, Rondo; posting that was not at all a terrible idea.

  94. Bag of Pucks says:

    Expectations are a funny thing. Two weeks, Paul Ranger wasn’t even on the radar screen for Oiler fans. Now he’s a must have on MacT’s to do list?

    No wonder they look at the fanbase as two tiers.

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