MAKES AMAZING LOOK STUPID

With each passing MacT actuality, we hear more and more about “the plan” and the plan is aggressive. VERY aggressive. I thought ’8 or 9′ changes (from late April) would be a massive turnover, but it’s possible this summer will see fully half the roster change (which, considering there’s 23 players, means cutting some poor guy in half).

If we make an “incumbent” list, it might look like this:

  • Nuge-Hall-Eberle
  • Gagner-(scoring L)-Yakupov
  • (checking C)-Paajarvi-(checking R)
  • (checking C)-Smyth-Hartikainen
  • M Brown-(extra)
  • Smid-Petry
  • Schultz-Schultz
  • (Belov)-(Klefbom)
  • Potter
  • Dubnyk
  • (backup)

belanger5

It was earlier this year when this team stepped into an elevator shaft as Horcoff went down. I’m all for out with the old, let’s just make sure ‘in with the new’ is a better mousetrap. Fifteen spots in bold (above) are starters (and guys like Lander would be callups), 8 new men from last season. Gone would be:

  • Shawn Horcoff
  • Ales Hemsky
  • Eric Belanger
  • Ben Eager
  • Darcy Hordichuk
  • Ryan Jones
  • Lennart Petrell
  • Jarred Smithson
  • Theo Peckham
  • Mark Fistric
  • Ryan Whitney
  • Nikolai Khabibulin

One dozen guys–much of the Tambellini free agency windfall–will be gone. There’s no doubt MacT can find a replacement 3line C–those guys are out there and their cap hit is much lower than #10′s–but it adds another chore to a large list:

  • scoring L
  • top 4D (this would be an exchange–maybe N Schultz exits)
  • top 6D (already added–Belov)
  • top 6D (already added–Klefbom)
  • 3line C
  • 3line R
  • 4line C
  • extra forward
  • backup goalie

I’m not sure it would be wise for any GM–even an experienced one–to tackle this kind of summer. But here we are. Hopefully Sam Pollock’s diabolical brain has a doppelganger that drives our guy.

mouse

 

Lowdown with Lowetide is on the air at 10 this morning–Team 1260–and we’ve got lots to discuss. Scheduled to appear:

Hope you can join me.

written by

The author didn‘t add any Information to his profile yet.
Related Posts

84 Responses to "MAKES AMAZING LOOK STUPID"

  1. FrankenOil says:

    LT,

    Is there anywhere that MacT has said Jones won’t be back (like he has with Whitney, Khabbi, Horcoff and Hemsky)? I’m not the biggest fan of Jones (or really one at all) but as it stands, he’d be an option to keep for some competition on the bottom lines at a reasonable price and at least the Oilers could negotiate with him right now.

    Also, I’m beginning to believe that we will see a few more European signings in the coming days n order to at least add more competition and to try and knock a few more of the items off the to-do list.

    Hello Patrick Thoreson?

  2. Lowetide says:

    Frankenoil: No, nothing on Jones departing and perhaps that is a player they keep. I see Jones ties a little bit to Hartikainen and Mike Brown, so if they sign Jones it’s probably bad news for one of those guys. I also wonder about the eye injury.

  3. Lowetide says:

    PS, would LOVE to see Thoresen back.

  4. Rondo says:

    It seems MacT talked his way into a corner. If he trades them it won’t be enough coming back, and if he can’t trade them well

  5. Undisclosed_Personal_Reasons says:

    I’m late to the party, but I think there was some strategy behind Mact’s decision to announce those players as available.

    The trade market for Horc and Hemsky is going to be for a) teams trying to hit the floor b) teams looking to get rid of similar “burdens.” With the cap going down I think the latter is what MacT is targeting. There are only so many burdensome players who are worth taking a flyer on and it’s important to make sure your team is in the conversation. This announcement helps ensure other teams and media are drumming up trade scenarios involving Horc or Hemsky.

    Regardless, making the announcement doesn’t hurt whatever trade value they may have had.

    That said, I would have been fine keeping both, particularly Horc.

  6. FrankenOil says:

    MacT doesn’t have to fix every hole between now and training camp. He could fill the last few during training camp and before the first regular season game by seeing who gets squeezed out elsewhere and what veterans are looking for work (and actually tinkering with the team before the trade deadline).

    Also, I think LT may see his worst nightmares come true and see Hemsky in Detroit. They are going to have some money to play with and they have a lot of interesting pieces. Would a Kindl+Emmerton for Hemsky trade be palatable?

  7. misfit says:

    I think we could still see Horcoff back next year. I don’t imagine there’s much of a trade market for him, and they still have the compliance buyout option next offseason (I don’t see the point in buying him out this year without a suitable replacement already on the roster). With the length of the contract I’d be less inclined to retain salary in a deal, especially when you have an option available to you of buying him out with no cap penalty.

    Hemsky, on the other hand, only has one season left, so retaining even a significant portion of his deal is managable under the cap, and it should greatly increase his value to another team. I see a team like Boston, who has their #1 RW heading to free agency and commanding a salary that they likely can’t afford, seeing a lot of value in a top 6 winger like Hemsky at a $2.5M – $3M pricetag. If they can offload additional salary in a guy like Peverley at the same time, then it becomes a deal where both teams are addressing needs.

  8. Lowetide says:

    I’m hopeful for balance. Sweet, sweet balance. I love the small of balance in the morning. Balanced take off, balance balance balance balance.

    Balance.

  9. jonrmcleod says:

    LT: You never said which player you think should be cut in half.

  10. Lowetide says:

    jonrmcleod:
    LT: You never said which player you think should be cut in half.

    MacT’s flushing all of my candidates!

  11. regwald says:

    FrankenOil:
    LT,

    Is there anywhere that MacT has said Jones won’t be back (like he has with Whitney, Khabbi, Horcoff and Hemsky)? I’m not the biggest fan of Jones (or really one at all) but as it stands, he’d be an option to keep for some competition on the bottom lines at a reasonable price and at least the Oilers could negotiate with him right now.

    Also, I’m beginning to believe that we will see a few more European signings in the coming days n order to at least add more competition and to try and knock a few more of the items off the to-do list.

    Hello Patrick Thoreson?

    I think in his introduction presser MacT said he like what Jones brought to the room and competitiveness on the ice. Seemed like he was interested in resigning him.

  12. RMGS says:

    “I’m not sure it would be wise for any GM–even an experienced one–to tackle this kind of summer. But here we are.”

    Does this mean the MacT honeymoon is nearly over? :)

  13. jonrmcleod says:

    regwald,

    In that case, I say that Jones should be the player cut in half. Cut his legs off. Even with his legs, he’s falling and lying on the ice half the time anyway.

  14. FrankenOil says:

    One other thing, I would say the one positive of bringing Howson back is that a tleast MacT has a lieutenant who has a lot of people willing to take his call from his time as the CLB GM. Howson had a lot of rocky moments in his last few years, but the moves he made in his last few years set the table for the strong playoff push they had. If Howson can help work some magic and find us a Letestu-type value trade, I’d be ecstatic!

  15. FrankenOil says:

    If the Oilers do end up dealing Horcoff to the Islanders, I’d really like Casey Cizikas in return.

  16. slopitch says:

    Can we start referring to 10 as Yakapov yet? Too soon? Ok

  17. Truth says:

    I think they should keep Jones, but realize he fills that spot on the third line Checking RW until he is replaced by someone better through trade or free agency. Then, knock him to the fourth line or put him in the spot created when the trade was made.

    If I’m MacT I’m targeting Clutterbuck all off-season. I really think he brings the exact intangibles MacT is looking for. Unfortunately, Minnesota probably sees him the same way. He is an RFA, however.

  18. Scarlett100 says:

    You are right that the most experienced GM would have a tough time tackling these many necessary changes. Personally I would prefer to keep Hemsky and Horcoff because they will be tough to replace. I’m a bit nervous the Oilers will be worse off next season. I’m hope MacT can pull this off. I would prefer he kept some of this to the vest and not give away his whole plan. But I guess everyone knows what the Oilers need.

  19. theres oil in virginia says:

    I think MacT already cut several guys in half – verbally.

  20. SK Oiler Fan says:

    Of course this is alot of talk right now and no action, but MacTs to do list quickly becomes unrealistic if he’s flushing Hemsky and Horc along with filling the other 6 or 7 holes. Trade 83, yah that’s fine, RW is looking ok, but flushing Horc on a team with the worst Center ice depth in the league? Yah he’s overpaid, but he has a role on this team next year.

    I’m afraid Mac T is seriously understimateing how difficult it is to make deals that bring in players that can help now. He only has so many trade chips and most of them are seriously devalued right now.
    Just a guess, but I get the feeling the veteren GMs see fresh meat falling off the bone here. Sure Mac we’ll talk at the draft, yep that deal sounds reasonable, ya we’ll finalize it later. Well when it comes to pulling the triggger I bet alot aren’t going to answer Mac Ts calls.

    I see at least one of Horc or Hemsky in the opening lineup

  21. Bag of Pucks says:

    MacT does give good verbal.

    Looking at the various antonyms for Dithers, Madcap comes to mind as one that might fit.

  22. Oil_or_Nothing says:

    I see things a bit differently. MacT is a very intelligent person from all reports and what we know of him and he has been around long enough to know that speaking and not acting can get you seriously burned in this town so I actually believe MacT has trades in place (in principle at least) for both players.
    I think we might be amazed at the trades and how quick they will happen..

  23. Rondo says:

    LT,

    Is vertical jump one of the most important categories in the combine?

  24. Captain Obvious says:

    The only benefit to trading Horcoff and Hemsky is cap space but cap space is the one thing the Oilers have in excess. Hence, I don’t see a path forward where this helps the team.* As sad as it seems it sure looks like we are entering year one of the rebuild.

    *The exception would be if they traded Hemsky for Tyutin or something like that. As for Horcoff, I can imagine no scenario in which they get equivalent value back. If Horcoff wasn’t on the Oilers I would be saying they should trade for him. The salary doesn’t matter since the Oilers are closer to the floor than the cap.

    **The other alternative is that the Oilers go big on FA signings. I don’t see this as a good move either. Adding Ribeiro and Clarkson (assuming they could sign them) for 5×5 would make the Oilers better next year but it would cost them big down the road.

  25. bookje says:

    MacT seems concerned about the culture in the room – I guess Tambellini failed on that as well (and by my recollection, that was a major attribute that he was concerned about when he was bringing guys in).

    We also have not heard about Belanger – does MacT think Belanger can play the third line centre role? If so, why?

    Hemsky – while I have been a big fan of his through the years and think that many of the critiques have been unfair, I am ok with him moving on. I think he has grown frustrated and perhaps disinterested here (I don’t blame him in the least).

    Horcoff – Interesting, I thought he was the type of veteran leadership that this team needed and that he was an effective but overpaid third line centre. If you trade him away, but keep some salary, then you have to replace him. This is why I think MacT must have decided that Horcoff’s leadership skills have soured. I think they want the youth to run this team and everyone else to be supporting characters. Hall is old enough to be captain now and was clearly the on-ice leader last year.

  26. Oil_or_Nothing says:

    Plus Pie in the Sky thinking.. wouldn’t it be great to see a Hemsky and Gagner (sign and trade) plus something else retaining salary, pick or prospect for Malkin and a defenceman!
    We get a size down the middle, pushes RNH down the chart and Penguins get an actually second line center and a replacement for Dupuis.
    Before I get negative comments I am just saying in many ways this trade would help both parties.

  27. Beaker says:

    Too much for one GM? Good thing we have 3.

  28. Bag of Pucks says:

    @Vor

    Following on from a previous thread, would it be possible to get a copy of your team/draft performance spreadsheet by chance? If yes, please advise and I can shoot you an email address.

    You’d mentioned that the data correlated to each team’s draft performance, and I think it would be fun to have a further play with the numbers to see if some other hypotheses can be proved.

    By the way, how did you account for status of the team at the start of the study? Presumably some teams would be starting with a more mature drafted player core than others which could skew the numbers in their favour.

    What’s really cool about the numbers you’ve generated is you can already see patterns between the output and the wider contexts (i.e. team philosophy). Until Pegula’s arrival, Buffalo was a budget team almost entirely committed to the draft for player procurement. Detroit as is well documented marinate their prospects in the minors for a long time thus reducing the GPs played. No Gagner in the dance at 18 with them. Thus, these teams land about where you’re expect them to when looking at these draft performance metrics.

    Good stuff.

  29. Bag of Pucks says:

    RE: Hemsky/Horcoff. What if they’re freeing up cap space for Luongo?

    Would Roberto waive his NMC for a decent shot at a cup with an emerging core?

  30. Ribs says:

    It’s possible Stu may be able to call in from Mexico at the draft. He might be given an empty pistol!

    How do you get a dozen NHL players? Is the salary cap fallout going to be as drastic as MacTavish makes it sound?

  31. Captain Obvious says:

    Bag of Pucks:
    RE: Hemsky/Horcoff. What if they’re freeing up cap space for Luongo?

    Would Roberto waive his NMC for a decent shot at a cup with an emerging core?

    Puke. What a disaster that would be.

  32. Bag of Pucks says:

    Captain Obvious: Puke.What a disaster that would be.

    Well, he did say ‘bold’ moves.

  33. Beaker says:

    All i can say is that if he does bring in Roberto that Dubnyk is going out (for the record id rather just keep dubnyk). I’ve just spent all year explaining how stupid having 9 million tied up in your goalies is.

  34. striatic says:

    i think after reading a lot of scouting reports and evaluations i’d really like Edmonton to take either Lindholm or Nurse at 7OV.

  35. striatic says:

    i still wish there was more discussion of Lindholm as a future centre versus winger, given his success at wing this year.

  36. Bank Shot says:

    With all the comments by MacT making it sound like he is doing Horcoff a favour by getting rid of him, what does that say about Mact’s time frame for the Oilers being any good?

    Does Mact have an actual strong incentive to get the Oilers into the playoff NEXT season? Or is he continuing on the path of “building for the future!!”?

    Wouldn’t bringing in some quality players and making the playoffs as a result rejuvenate the spirits of Hemsky and Horcoff? Mac makes it sound like the pot of gold is still far down the rainbow when he talks about dealing these guys.

    I also question whether MacT will get the best deal for the Oilers when trading Horcoff. Will he pull the trigger on a trade to Florida? If he is successful in dealing in dealing Horcoff, does it end up being to a team that gets a great deal so that Horcoff can finally play on a decent squad?

  37. LMHF#1 says:

    If they dump everyone except Jones, I will lose it. I’m very much looking forward to watching a team that doesn’t include his cheating-at-all-times-and-in-the-wrong-damn-direction play and his sad attempts to re-create the comedic genius that was Marty Reasoner.

    No reason you can’t turn a roster over. We’ve just become accustomed to management that makes no deals, only excuses.

    We shall see if this is any different. Our new GM may be violating the “under promise, over deliver” rule. That’s risky.

  38. FrankenOil says:

    bookje,

    Yeah, I’ve been wondering about that as well. Does MacT believe Belanger could have a bit of a revival if they provide him with actual linemates like a Stalberg and MPS? Seeing as how he only has one year left, maybe it isn’t a bad gamble. If he fails, farm him out, waive him or find him a European vacation.

  39. Oil_or_Nothing says:

    Beaker,

    Maybe a Horcoff for Luongo trade I could live with but then they definitely need to do something with Dubnyk!
    Maybe trade Dubnyk to the Islanders for something maybe Brock Nelson, Lubo and take DiPietro for the buy-out?

  40. rickithebear says:

    LT: these posts cause me to repetitively review
    The more i look at Dmen:
    The more i realize power play points skew the real value of players and cap costs.
    The league average for GF and GA on the special teams is 6.00/60
    A dman who reduces the GA affect on the PK by 2.00/60 is equal in game affect value as a PPQb who increases the PP affect by 2.00/60.
    These PP qb’s get ungodlly dollars for affecting the special teams like N. schultz does for PK.
    the 4 forward and 1 D man system makes sense from a cap $ point of view.

    When Mact t talks about puck movement from D i think of EVen play.
    So the real offensive d man affect can be measuresd in the production affect at even.

    What is interesting is the even assist count for Dmen. measuring from 07-08
    the top 3 average 30 ESA
    top 5 24+
    tp 10 21+
    top 30 17+
    top 50 14+
    top 90 12+
    5 assists diff between mid 2nd and top 30

    Petry 17
    J. Schultz 14
    Fistric 13 non tippett system
    4 in tippett system
    N. Schultz 13
    Smid 9
    Potter 9

    Klefbom’s SEL performance reflects a 15-21 ESA dman.
    Belov numbers seam to indicate a top 20 Even assist dman.

  41. LMHF#1 says:

    FrankenOil:
    bookje,

    Yeah, I’ve been wondering about that as well. Does MacT believe Belanger could have a bit of a revival if they provide him with actual linemates like a Stalberg and MPS? Seeing as how he only has one year left, maybe it isn’t a bad gamble. If he fails, farm him out, waive him or find him a European vacation.

    If he’s watching the games and paying any attention to the guy, he won’t think that. Belanger quit worse than any NHLer I’ve seen in…well maybe ever. No tolerance for guys like that. He doesn’t even have the “insanely talented but lazy” excuse.

  42. Woodguy says:

    Captain Obvious,

    The only benefit to trading Horcoff and Hemsky is cap space but cap space is the one thing the Oilers have in excess. Hence, I don’t see a path forward where this helps the team.* As sad as it seems it sure looks like we are entering year one of the rebuild.

    Even with moving our Horcoff and Hemsky, I expect the Oilers to be a cap team, or near cap team next year.

  43. Bag of Pucks says:

    The thing I love about this is it shows that MacT ‘gets it’ and he’s not going to engage in paralysis through analysis like Dithers.

    2 things that are talked about consistently here:

    1) Bottom 6 forwards can/should be easily acquired in the offseason as other teams look to dump salary and change the makeup of their rosters
    2) Even with the promising core, EDM has to overpay to acquire FAs.

    With the above in mind, an aggressive GM can remake this roster in a single offseason through canny trades and by being aggressive on FA day. You can’t do either if you’re hamstrung by holding onto two bottom 6 players with a collective $10.5mil cap hit.

    The irony in all of this is those who hate Horc’s contract are finally getting their wish. That contract is forcing him out the door. Suspect he’ll stay classy San Diego, but I would kill to hear some final parting shots from the captain on his way out. If anyone has some dirt to dish on the old boys club, it’s Horc.

  44. Bad Seed says:

    Beaker,

    Didn’t he say in that same Spector interview that he was giving Dubnyk one year to prove himself?

  45. FrankenOil says:

    LMHF#1,

    I agree. I just wonder if moving/buying out Belanger has moved from “for sure” as the prevailing thinking was horcoff could fill a 3rd/4th line C role, to “more than likely” if we can get replacements via FA and trade.

  46. speeds says:

    Anyone have some thoughts about Taylor Cammarata as a potential 2nd round pick?

  47. VOR says:

    bagofpucks,

    Absolutely – I owe a lot of people spread sheets and I will try to get to them all this week and next.

    I am actually not through analysing all of the draft data myself but will gladly give you what I have up until now. I have been getting ready to launch my own blog since I am very often a dissenting opinion here and elsewhere. The idea is much more detailed studies – more David Johnson than LT -challenging conventional wisdom. The result is I have over twenty different studies in various stages of preparation. Many of them deal with the draft.

    Other than Schuckers, whose work is a good beginning but far from a complete analysis, there is very little peer reviewed, publically available research on the NHL draft or best draft strategies. I am trying to fix that. Most teams actually do worse drafting than they would if they just used Central Scouting’s list. So there must be a better way.

    I asked here, when I first started the research, what metric to use to compare teams draft records over time and the best anyone could up with (and by the way it was Captain Happy) was games played since it allows you to compare defence with forwards though of course it wickedly penalizes goaltenders. I’d now say we need a multi-variant approach. I am currently doing a short run using THOR to see if that better fits the data for drafting to that for team outcomes in games played over the period.

    You are right. Where teams are at when the draft data set begins matters in a number of ways. For examples, teams with gaping holes in their lineup are more prone to picking for need.

    The other factor that counts is draft opportunity – if your GM keeps trading away first round picks the scouting staff is going to be handcuffed. Similarly, a great team will have later draft selections than the Oilers of recent years.

    However, great teams are punished a second time because the players picked have less chance of making the team. I could go on and on but will stop there. Just suffice it to say that Buffalo gained a slight competitive advantage from its great drafting but nothing like you would expect.

    I’d now say there are the following questions about drafting:

    How do you do in comparison to the opportunity you are given (the raw score)?
    How do you do in comparison to the league average (the relative score)?
    How does your team do in using the players you draft (the effective score)?
    How does your team do in using the players you draft relative to the league average (the competitive advantage score).

    I guess the last asks, can you even build a team through the draft in the modern game?

    The answer to your specific question is that I developed a stat I call the Current Value of Players to use as the start and of course stop period for any sampling of data. When I send the spread sheets I will explain it more. Essentially, l use total games remaining and goal differential versus threshold you would expect the current roster to produce over those games. For opportunity I use total Schuckers games that a team should get from the draft picks they have had.

  48. coolwasabi says:

    Center-LeftWinger-RightWinger

    I get your reasonings behind this Lowetide, but it hurts my brain!!

  49. LMHF#1 says:

    FrankenOil:
    LMHF#1,

    I agree. I just wonder if moving/buying out Belanger has moved from “for sure” as the prevailing thinking was horcoff could fill a 3rd/4th line C role, to “more than likely” if we can get replacements via FA and trade.

    Now I have thoughts of Jones AND Belanger playing next year…I’m going to go rock back and forth on the ground in the corner for a while.

  50. VOR says:

    speeds,

    Taylor Cammarata deserves to be taken in the second round and probably somebody like Detroit picking at or near the bottom of the round will do exactly that. If not he will go early in the third. The problem is that he has very little hope of a career in the Oilers system. MacT has said he wants to go with the transition game not a pure puck possession game. It isn’t Cammarata’s size that is the problem in this case. It is that he is at best an average skater in terms of flat out speed and thus would not flourish in a transition game.

  51. VOR says:

    Rondo,

    Is vertical jump one of the most important tests at the combine?

    Hard to say. I could certainly argue that for defense it is probably predictive of the ability to close the gap in a hurry and that for forwards it probably says something about their ability to win puck battles. However, the NHL is very secretive about the testing they do at the combine. Their are tests they never even list on their website and they don’t usually make public anymore than the top 20 in a category – if that. Then they don’t share which tests they believe are important or any statistical tools they use to build either a comparative ranking or aggregate score.

    The published research shows that the tests that are most predictive are what we might call Lactic Acid Threshold but they are calling VO2 max duration, grip strength, and Peak Power.

  52. VOR says:

    bagofpucks,

    I wrote quite a long response to your post but it is awaiting moderation.

    Simplified, yes I will send you spreadsheets – trying to get caught up with all the people I have promised data to over the next week.

  53. LostBoy says:

    Captain Obvious:
    The only benefit to trading Horcoff and Hemsky is cap space but cap space is the one thing the Oilers have in excess.

    But how is that really true? This:

    Hall-Nuge-Eberle
    ???-Gagner-Yakupov
    Paajarvi-Horcoff-Hemsky
    Smyth-???-Hartikainen
    ???-Brown

    Schultz-Schultz
    Smid-Petry
    Belov-???
    Potter

    Dubnyk
    ???

    …costs nearly $58m. ca. Is ~$6.5m really “excess” when you’re talking up adding a top six forward, possibly a top four defenseman, an NHL-capable goalie good enough to push Dubnyk, and two presumptive “actual NHL player” bottom six forwards?

  54. Rondo says:

    The more I read the more I think Oilers should pick Darnell Nurse at #7 if available.

  55. Captain Obvious says:

    Woodguy,

    How are they going to manage to be a cap team without Horcoff and Hemsky? The only way I see it is by overpaying for free agents.

    LostBoy,

    If the Oilers spend $8M resigning Gagner, Paajarvi, and Haartikainen, and buy out Smyth and Belanger, and keep Hemsky and Horcoff that leaves them with $11M to add a good forward, a good D, two bench players, and a backup goalie. Realistically that leaves them with 7-8M at least to add two players that will play. Divide it up how you like but it’s better than trading Horcoff and Hemsky for draft picks.

  56. B S says:

    Wow there are selective memories among Oilers fans.

    Re: Horcoff, Yes the Oilers pulled out of a tailspin when he came back, but they also went on to lose 6 games in a row (including a few shutouts) on their way out of the playoff race. The Oilers have been flashes of brilliance (when the kids seem to take over games) amid extended periods of poor play and seeming disinterest, especially among our veteran forwards. This ties into…

    Re: MacT and Horcoff. MacT didn’t say Horcoff wouldn’t be back, only that he would like to trade him (and Hemsky) citing a possible lack of enthusiasm (specifically a need for change for the player). Horcoff could be back next year if the trade value isn’t there, just not as Captain (as LT intimated).

    As a side note I think several on here are overestimating the value of Nino Neidereiter and underestimating the value of a Horcoff or Hemsky. Nino’s NHL totals are gp 64, 2 1 (3) and -30. He had an exceptional Junior career and has never shown the gumption (desire if you prefer) to stick as a serious NHL player. Oilers fans seem to have a serious problem in overestimating the value of players outside the organization (Streit is another one, good offense, really old, little defensive acumen especially in the last few years)

  57. FrankenOil says:

    Captain Obvious,

    Normally I would agree that trading them for draft picks is a bad idea. However, this is the time of year when draft picks are most overvalued. A 2nd or 3rd rounder could get a top-4 NHL d-man from a team looking to trim cap space (See Pitt trading Michalek to PHX last year).

  58. Cactus says:

    A lot of people here seem to have the (potential) misconception that MacT has decided to trade Horcoff and Hemsky because he doesn’t want them here anymore. I find it just as plausible (if not more so) that one or both of them asked him for a trade. Being gentlemen, they didn’t go to the media with it and now the GM is doing what he can to accomodate this.

    In that light, it makes sense that he’d be public about it. Someone in the last thread made mention that it would appease the Horcoff camp. That, or he’s got some deals in the work that are awaiting the start of trading and free agency.

    Thus far, MacT has correctly identified many of the deficiencies of this hockey team (his waivering on Dubnyk being the one exception). He has correctly identified the effectively untradeable pieces. He has spoken, in general terms, of a plan. I find it difficult to believe he suddenly decided to go off the rails in a Spector interview.

  59. leadfarmer says:

    B S,

    Those players themselves are not bad (Horc, Hemsky). Each player being worth 1/12th of a teams cap hit is bad. The only problem is players of their caliber in UFA arent much cheaper.

  60. B S says:

    leadfarmer,

    Your last point might be the most important in terms of trade value. I agree with most on here that MacT probably wouldn’t be making these statements without some kind of plan in the works (and cleared with the players and their agents), but I couldn’t say what their value is. I will say that Neidereiter isn’t worth even one of those players, and Horcoff is worth more than a 3rd round pick (whether we’ll get more than that I don’t know) even with his cap hit. I would also suggest that in terms of skill level, there isn’t a player of Hemsky’s caliber in the FA market and I’m on side with suggestions that he be used to aquire a top 4 Dman (packaged with a forward prospect if necessary).

  61. B S says:

    Cactus,

    You might be right, and I think LT’s comments on the captaincy make a lot of sense.

    I know a lot of people think Hall will be the next captain, but, and I’ve suggested it a few times this season, I think Gagner is the next candidate for Captain, and the one MacT wants. Long term contract, espousing his character and leadership, plus Gags is well-liked among the core kids and has been well spoken with the media, and a long-time Oiler.

  62. Zipdot says:

    SK Oiler Fan: Just a guess, but I get the feeling the veteren GMs see fresh meat falling off the bone here. Sure Mac we’ll talk at the draft, yep that deal sounds reasonable, ya we’ll finalize it later. Well when it comes to pulling the triggger I bet alot aren’t going to answer Mac Ts calls.

    … Just a guess indeed, eh!

  63. spoiler says:

    This just seems like too much to change even if MacT gave himself till the next deadline to accomplish it all. That’s a lot of players to move and replace… it seems a tad like climbing Everest.

    He must have a real good idea already of what some of the moves are.

    And considering the number of replacements involved, I’m beginning to think the Oil really aren’t drafting in the first round this year. Nor does the celebrated 3 for 1 trade seem as likely.

    How much roster depth will we have to start this season, if this many NHL players are heading out of town?

  64. Ca$h-Money! says:

    The thing I can’t get passed is simply this: what if he does manage to trade both Hemsky and Horcoff for even mediocore value? What does that do to our assessment of the job Tambo was doing?

    I mean, I’m the first to say the Tambo regime made their share of mistakes; if it turns out someone can come in, and extract value out of these pieces in a matter of months, during a compliance buyout period with a shrinking salary cap…. it makes Tambo look even worse.

  65. misfit says:

    FrankenOil: Captain Obvious, Normally I would agree that trading them for draft picks is a bad idea. However, this is the time of year when draft picks are most overvalued. A 2nd or 3rd rounder could get a top-4 NHL d-man from a team looking to trim cap space (See Pitt trading Michalek to PHX last year).

    Then by that same token, wouldn’t we be getting less value in the way of draft picks by trading for them now?

  66. Ripoux says:

    There’s only one thing that’ll solve this – that’s a Calgary-Risebrough/Toronto-Fletcher type deal that changes the fortunes of two clubs for a long time. Which side will the Oil be on? :)

  67. Cactus says:

    spoiler,

    I don’t see how trading Hemsky and Horcoff reduces the possibility of a 3 for 1 deal. The most difficult piece on MacT’s shopping list is a top pairing defenceman. Maybe those two players combine with a prospect (and keeping some money) in a deal. Or maybe just one of them – I’ve always believed that either Gagner or Hemsky would have to be part of any deal for a good D man as they’re the only pieces with offensive value that the Oilers would be willing to trade.

    The numbers (of players being replaced) may seem daunting, but given where they are on the depth chart, the only real worries to me are 2nd line LW and top pairing D. If MacT can make that happen, the rest will be relatively easy.

  68. Bag of Pucks says:

    Oiler nation has a huge emotional investment in these two players so I think there’s a tendency to overrate these developments and make them seem much bigger than they are.

    Spector said as much in the interview (i.e. “these are huge moves”) and MacT replied that he really doesn’t see moving these two players out as that big a deal. I’m in agreement with MacT. They’re overpaid Bottom 6 forwards. Other teams cut away this kind of deadwood on a regular basis.

    Maybe it’s helpful if we try to see these players as other teams across the league might?

    HEMSKY
    Skilled oft injured forward. Point production in decline. Player trending from Top 6 to Bottom 6. Large 1 year contract / Cap Hit

    Comparable
    Martin Havlat

    HORCOFF
    Gritty two way center. Oft injured. Faceoff specialist. Superior defensively. Offensive game and point production in decline. Player trending from Top 6 to Bottom 6. Large 2 year contract / cap hit

    Comparables
    John Madden (although Madden did not have injury concerns to the extent of Horcoff)

    What would SJ receive in return for Havlat at this point? Given his injury history, I suspect he has negative value and is likely heading for a buyout. I would suggest a Bottom 6 forward or 2nd tier prospect is the most you can expect in return.

    I don’t rate Horcoff as highly as Madden (Selke) but I know many on this site do. If that’s a solid comparable then, what does Madden’s value towards the end of his career tell us? Moving from city to city on 1 year deals at or below the league average, Madden’s value was about what you’d expect from a faded defensive specialist in the twilight of his career with little to no offensive upside. Given Horc’s sizeable contract in comparison to Madden’s then, you can speculate he currently has negative value. Thus, the Oil will need to take back salary or expect lesser return. Horc is solidly entrenched in the bottom 6 now, and given his injury history and contract, I would suggest you may fetch the same return for Hemsky if you’re willing to take back salary. In all likelihood, he’s a buyout and that’s how the team parts ways with its current captain.

    These trades or transactions ARE going to be criticized whatever we get in return because of the emotional investment. Unfortunately, both of these players to use Peter Puck terminology are the very definition of declining assets and should be viewed as such.

  69. dessert1111 says:

    I wouldn’t mind Nurse at 7. Or Nichuskin, or Lindholm, or Monahan, really. As long as they don’t do something stupid I think this draft will be fine, and I don’t think MacT will do something stupid.

    Would Florida have interest in acquiring Horcoff + Hemsky for Shawn Matthias if the Oilers ate some salary? Maybe throw in a pick or marginal prospect as well? This would be especially good for the Oilers if they opt not to take a centre with the #7 overall.

  70. Gerta Rauss says:

    Cactus:

    The numbers (of players being replaced) may seem daunting, but given where they are on the depth chart, the only real worries to me are 2nd line LW and top pairing D.If MacT can make that happen, the rest will be relatively easy.

    Agree 100% with this. I think part of the problem is that Oilers fans have grown accustomed to the management making very few moves in the summer-and ineffectual ones at that- and virtually no in season moves.

    And I mentioned last night that I don’t expect all the changes made this summer will be the perfect fit long term-it may take until next year’s deadline or the summer 2014 buyout period to clean up this roster. If we move Horcoff and get a large salary in return we may wind up using a compliance buyout on that player summer 2014 if the player/contract isn’t a fit long term.

  71. spoiler says:

    Cactus: spoiler, I don’t see how trading Hemsky and Horcoff reduces the possibility of a 3 for 1 deal. The most difficult piece on MacT’s shopping list is a top pairing defenceman. Maybe those two players combine with a prospect (and keeping some money) in a deal. Or maybe just one of them – I’ve always believed that either Gagner or Hemsky would have to be part of any deal for a good D man as they’re the only pieces with offensive value that the Oilers would be willing to trade.The numbers (of players being replaced) may seem daunting, but given where they are on the depth chart, the only real worries to me are 2nd line LW and top pairing D. If MacT can make that happen, the rest will be relatively easy.

    I just mean that in general when you trade three NHLers for one NHLers that’s two other holes you have to fill some way, in a weak UFA market, with Edmonton not a favoured destination.

    But certainly 3 for 1s, where it is a Player, pick and prospect, would not leave the same roster holes (although would still affect organizational or developmental depth, but that’s something the Oilers can probably afford to do).

  72. striatic says:

    dessert1111: Nichuskin

    i’m really cool on Nichuskin since the Copper n’ Blue comparables post.

    i think drafting him is a trap, and he’s going to slide quite a bit and not simply because of the KHL thing.

  73. FrankenOil says:

    misfit,

    I’m looking at it as the Oilers almost being a facilitator for teams looking to get to the floor and teams looking to get from the cap. For example, Trade Hemsky for a 2nd and a 4th rounder and then flip the 2nd to a team needing to get to under the cap and also looking to create room to take runs at free agents.

  74. Wes Mantooth-11 says:

    Captain Obvious,

    I would be open to bringing in Luongo if it meant using him in a three way trade with TB or FLA.

    If it meant bringing in Luongo to move up, plus secure say a back up like Bishop or Linback, I think that would be along the lines of bold.

  75. Ryan says:

    Bag of Pucks,

    Great way of framing things.

    For those who think Horcoff’s departure means the sky is falling…

    I’ll admit it looks like it when you look at our current depth chart at centre. Replacement options are available though.

    In terms of the dirty Russian’s perceived value league wide, I once made the analogy to Belanger pre-Tambo signing. Hindsight tells us the 3×1.8m was a disaster, but it looked decent at the time. Critics argued it was .3m too much or one year too long at the time.

    Given the shrinking cap and above comp, Horcov could be worth $1.5m x2. That doesn’t even factor in the injury risk or the possibility of his offense entering the Belanger triangle.

    That’s 4m x2 with his departure. What does $4m buy you these days in free agency?

    The emotional bias prevent some from seeing cutting dead wood is a good thing.

  76. leadfarmer says:

    Its a little early to be trading for rights, but Gonchar to Dallas.

  77. bill needle says:

    You know, if they had traded Hemsky two years ago instead of signing him to that contract extension, the draft pick(s) he might have brought to Edmonton would be that much closer to being NHL ready.

  78. LostBoy says:

    Captain Obvious,

    If the Oilers spend $8M resigning Gagner, Paajarvi, and Haartikainen, and buy out Smyth and Belanger, and keep Hemsky and Horcoff that leaves them with $11M to add a good forward, a good D, two bench players, and a backup goalie.Realistically that leaves them with 7-8M at least to add two players that will play.Divide it up how you like but it’s better than trading Horcoff and Hemsky for draft picks.

    Maybe there’s something I don’t understand, but I thnk the only way this is true is if they use up a good portion of their bonus cushion. Here are the cap payroll numbers for next year, using your total for the RFAs:

    Hall 6
    Nuge 3.775
    Eberle 6
    ???
    Gagner 5
    Yakupov 3.775
    Paajarvi 2
    Horcoff 5.5
    Hemsky 5
    Smyth 2.25
    ????
    Hartkainen 1
    ????
    Brown 0.737

    N. Schultz 3.5
    J. Schultz 3.775
    Smid 3.5
    Petry 1.75
    Belov 1.525
    ???? [Klefbom, if it seems like a good idea, would be 1.244]
    Potter 0.775

    Dubnyk 3.5
    ????

    That adds up to $59.362m in cap payroll, so there would be $4.938 left in payroll cap space. There’s a bonus cushion of about $9m, so technically they could spend close to $14m to fill the five blank spots, but any miscalculation there would be a cap penalty in 2014-15 (most of the cushion is the Nuge, Yak, and J. Schultz bonuses, so you can only spend that money to the extent you think they won’t hit them; any cap overage as a result counts against the next year’s cap).

    This already assumes Belanger is flushed. Since MacTavish has flat out said that Smyth will be back, it doesn’t seem reasonable to include buying him out as part of the total.

  79. Lowetide says:

    Hi Bill!

  80. spoiler says:

    Lowetide: Hi Bill!

    Lol. I totally thought about doing the same thing.

  81. russ99 says:

    A dozen departures sounds about right, MacT is doing what I hoped he would.

    The pro roster (not counting kids) has stagnated under years of Tambellini’s inactivity and we need this to improve. I’m still hoping for a all-new shutdown checking line, as all the playoff teams in the west have one.

  82. gcw_rocks says:

    If Horcoff or Hemsky are around in training camp, MacT is going to look like an idiot. The team will be dogged with questions about a player or players that he has said should not be there. By talking about the situation, he has backed himself into a corner, needing to get rid of these two regardless of return.

  83. G Money says:

    LT:

    Your article summarizes what MacT sees as the needs of this team, which fits nicely with what most of the cogent observers in the Oilogosphere see as well. This is a huge upgrade on Tambo.

    That said, do you not think it is asking too much of even the savviest of GMs to *upgrade* that many spots in a single year? I mean yes, the spots especially on 3/4 lines and 3rd pairing can be *filled*, but upgrading seems unlikely, at least without a. going over the cap and/or b. giving away the farm (heh heh) in terms of prospects and picks. The good news is that MacT doesn’t need to fill all of them this year. Just enough of them to make the team substantially better.

    The standard for next year, RE if you will, is for the Oilers to be a playoff team. If you agree that that is reasonable, my follow-up question to you is – of all those gaps to be filled, which do you feel are the *critical* gaps that must be filled *this year* to achieve RE?

  84. Lowetide says:

    G: I agree there’s too many holes. My belief is that the defense is the major area, so I would hope they:

    1. Are fine with Paajarvi as a solution on the 2line L if no suitable and pricewise options are available.
    2. Are going to bring in smart 2-way options like Moss-Klinkhammer-Gordon line in PHX.
    3. Make a smart but frugal G bet.

    The money and the assets need to go toward a top defender. Nick Schultz, #7 overall and Martin Marincin=====????????????????????

Leave a Reply

Want to join the discussion?
Feel free to contribute!

Leave a Reply

© Copyright - Lowetide.ca