OILERS AT 56: MARC OLIVIER ROY

The Oilers spent their late 2nd round pick on an offensive center of note from the QMJHL. Marc Olivier Roy is 6.0, 175.

  • QMJHL stats: 65, 29-38-67
  • NHLE: 82, 11-14-25
  • Bob McKenzie: 58
  • Redline: 39
  • ISS:54
  • Craig Button: 52
  • Corey Pronman: Roy is a late 1994 birthdate, and his late eligibility gave him extra time to take the next step in his development. That advantage allowed him to put up solid numbers in the QMJHL this season. Roy’s best skill is his skating, which is plus, as he can jet through the neutral zone with impressive top speed. He is a technically sound skater, and he is very elusive in tight. I have heard different takes on his offensive upside. One scout thinks he projects as an average offensive player, while another says his offensive instincts and puck play are very good but classifies his offensive potential as above-average. Roy has roughly average size, and his physical game can be inconsistent. He will, at times, show fine on-ice effort, but there will be times where he can drift off to the perimeter, while not overly impressing.
  • Mckeens: energetic, hard-working two-way winger .. propelled by a non-stop motor – maintains effort level from shift to shift .. not overly flashy, yet quite sound in all aspects of the game .. developed nice chemistry on the top line with Christopher Clapperton and Cedric Paquette, a unit that has been together all year long and can work wonders on the power play .. brings some toughness and grit – not afraid to stick his nose in .. relentless chasing the puck on both the forecheck and backcheck – and is a solid bodychecker .. strives to finish checks and initiate contact, however, at 180 pounds, doesn’t make much of an impression at this stage due to his under-developed strength .. can be guilty of over-pursuit in the defensive zone however, and neglecting his coverage responsibilities at times .. uses a wide base and balanced stride to change directions on a dime and keep hounding the puck carrier .. lively skater with solid all-around agility .. reaches a decent top gear swiftly – helped by a fairly powerful lower body .. boasts exceptional balance on his edges which allows him to take shots on goal from less-than-ideal release points .. won’t shy away from traffic areas to create scoring chances .. quite effective working the cycle along the boards .. displays a keen sense for when to pass and when to shoot for the most part – while also possessing good shooting accuracy .. proficient at one-timing the puck on target from the right half-board, where he usually operates on the power play .. can be too selective however and must focus on being more assertive .. prone to getting overly fancy at times when in prime shooting spots .. should continue to be a riser if his offensive production keeps up.
  • Redline: While thought of as a grinder who brings passion and intensity to each shift (which is accurate), that is short-changing his skill level. Good skater with speed and balance, and accelerates well. Wins a lot of races for loose pucks and is always 1st into corners. Works his bag off every shift and comes back hard on the backcheck. He’s an absolute buzzsaw with a motor that never quits. If his team loses the puck, he wants to go and get it back immediately. Stays in constant motion in the offensive zone, making him very difficult to check or contain. Soft hands for both giving and receiving passes. Gets shots away quickly around the slot and shows good accuracy. Competes like a bastard and always has his head in the game. Rugged and persistent on the forecheck. Reliable player at both ends who is continually improving. Also 6’1″ with a nice frame to fill out.

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34 Responses to "OILERS AT 56: MARC OLIVIER ROY"

  1. Jon K says:

    These two trades by the Oilers make me wonder just how deep the Oilers believe this draft is. It’ll further be interesting to see if they draw upon Europe or on goalies with the mid-round picks.

  2. Blackbyrd says:

    I’m only half watching at this point, but William Carrier is literally the first player I’ve seen that didn’t get a 5/5 on Button’s scouting report for compete level. He even gave Nishuskin a 5/5, and every report I’ve read knocked him on his intangibles and willingness to show up every night and for every shift.

    I guess only no-compete sissies fuck up their ankle.

  3. DeadmanWaking says:

    Before my vacation I took a stab at curve fitting the data supplied by Joel Pepin, using a highly technical approach to fit the curves with the fewest possible degrees of freedom. For me it was largely a technical exercise.

    The model I came up with had three degrees of freedom. You can think of this as one degree of freedom to fit the fantastic five, a second degree of freedom to fit the fade to black in the eighth round, and ONE degree of freedom to fit the shape of the curve in between (aka no “wiggles”).

    In my opinion this fit is excessively constrained as it misses some real structure in the bottom half of the first round. To go any further requires breaking the data down a bit finer than the sheet originally supplied, so this is where it ended. I have a plan to add a degree of freedom, not yet implemented.

    To check my first stab fit I ran a binomial filter over the raw data with the weight function (in percent) as follows:

    0.1 0.5 1.5 3.7 7.4 12 16 17.6 16 12 7.4 3.7 1.5 0.5 0.1

    This produces an extremely wobbly line which crosses my curve fit in about 30 places. The residual shows Poisson structure (variance equals the mean) which is good. Whatever doubts I have about the missing degree of freedom and the granularity of the data, it could be far worse. It’s better, for example, than the analysis of Ancel Keys using to justify the AHA heart healthy diet adopted in the late 1970s. But then, Ancel was doing multivariate regression by pencil and paper (hard), and he already knew the answer he wished to obtain (uh … much less hard). Having thus damned myself by faint praise, here is what my numbers show:

    Pick 37 will play 9.6 percent of available games in the first one to four seasons.

    Pick 57 declines to 5.8 percent.

    Pick 88 declines to 3.5 percent.

    Pick 96 declines to 3.1 percent.

    No one take this too seriously, but on superficial analysis this no worse than a wash for Mr T, and flushes out his coin purse to split nickels in future transactions.

    Note that the data I’ve used contains different numbers of seasons for different draft picks, and that’s a big problem yet to be cleaned up.

  4. godot10 says:

    Stan Bowman is doing exactly what MacT is doing. Collecting more picks. Although, admittedly, it is because he has to dump players to create cap space.

  5. Ducey says:

    From McKeen’s hockey:

    Marc-Olivier Roy (RW, 2013) – energetic, hard-working two-way winger .. propelled by a non-stop motor – maintains effort level from shift to shift .. not overly flashy, yet quite sound in all aspects of the game .. developed nice chemistry on the top line with Christopher Clapperton and Cedric Paquette, a unit that has been together all year long and can work wonders on the power play .. brings some toughness and grit – not afraid to stick his nose in .. relentless chasing the puck on both the forecheck and backcheck – and is a solid bodychecker .. strives to finish checks and initiate contact, however, at 180 pounds, doesn’t make much of an impression at this stage due to his under-developed strength .. can be guilty of over-pursuit in the defensive zone however, and neglecting his coverage responsibilities at times .. uses a wide base and balanced stride to change directions on a dime and keep hounding the puck carrier .. lively skater with solid all-around agility .. reaches a decent top gear swiftly – helped by a fairly powerful lower body .. boasts exceptional balance on his edges which allows him to take shots on goal from less-than-ideal release points .. won’t shy away from traffic areas to create scoring chances .. quite effective working the cycle along the boards .. displays a keen sense for when to pass and when to shoot for the most part – while also possessing good shooting accuracy .. proficient at one-timing the puck on target from the right half-board, where he usually operates on the power play .. can be too selective however and must focus on being more assertive .. prone to getting overly fancy at times when in prime shooting spots .. should continue to be a riser if his offensive production keeps up.

  6. LMHF#1 says:

    Really tried to keep a positive perspective on this day. I would have taken Nichuskin at #7 but at least they didn’t go off the board. Now they’re trading back, didn’t get Coburn (yet, I guess), could’ve beat that offer for Bolland…Please do something good sometime soon.

    This is why I always bring up under-promise then over-deliver. Making it seem like you’re “in on everything” and then having a couple of days like these is just brutal.

  7. rich says:

    MacT is finally doing those 3:1 deals that LT has been calling for…

    Only problem, it’s the other way around!

  8. gogliano says:

    The first 1 for 3 was debatable (I think it is a win but it is at least arguable) but all the numbers suggest the second 1 for 3 was an absolute steal. I’m enjoying MacT as GM thus far, if I ignore the rumors.

  9. Kitchener says:

    Surprising. I guess they’re going with 3 shots at a lower percentage NHLer than sinking picks into “sure thing” 2nd’s (… such as Hamilton & Pitlick.) This might be a smart strategy, but it sure isn’t climactic for fans.

    Or, it’s a roundabout vote of confidence in their draft boards – optimistic that they can find diamonds in the rough with late picks.

    If there’s a trade impact of drafting Nurse, it may be the new logjam on OKC’s blueline. I wonder if they’ll trade a prospect like Musil to a team disappointed with their picks today.

  10. Undisclosed_Personal_Reasons says:

    DeadmanWaking:

    …and flushes out his coin purse to split nickels in future transactions.

    If Bolland can be moved for a third and two fourths then this might be the biggest benefit of the trade.

  11. maudite says:

    gogliano:
    The first 1 for 3 was debatable (I think it is a win but it is at least arguable) but all the numbers suggest the second 1 for 3 was an absolute steal.I’m enjoying MacT as GM thus far, if I ignore the rumors.

    I’m with you. When you are fishing for a goalie there is plenty of things left in this range with very little difference in success rates in my head. I’m not 100% on that but goalies come out of all over the place I think.

  12. Gerta Rauss says:

    I thought I saw Mac T drop an F bomb when he was talking with Holmgren-maybe they are farther apart on Coburn(or whoever) than we think.

  13. Marc says:

    I have to say that I prefer a GM that promises a bold move and then doesn’t make any because the available bold moves are stupid, than one who makes a stupid bold move just because he told everyone he was going to be bold.

    That said, we still need a defenceman and a couple of centers.

  14. PunjabiOil says:

    Would have preferred Comrie at this pick.

  15. skidplate says:

    From The Hockey News
    “6′-0″, 175 lbs.
    “He won’t win any bodybuilding contests at the stage, but Roy is the kind of player who might be a steal if he continues to progress and fills out in the next couple of years.

    He’s one of those guys who’s going to go in the second round and years from now, people are going to say, How did they get this guy in the second round?

    He’s going to be a great second round pick. I wouldn’t be surprised if someone jumps up and takes him in the first.

    Despite the fact he’s a slight player, Roy doesn’t seem deterred by the prospect of gong into traffic or to the dirty areas to score. He ‘s just as likely to score on a five foot rebound as he is by making a skill move. Other nights, he might not do much for two periods, then have three points in the third.

    He’s quick, he’s fast, he’s hungry and he’s always around the puck. He’s involved in traffic and he just keeps coming at you. He’s just always in the hunt.”

  16. Death By Misadventure says:

    Marc,

    Get out of my head Marc. Agreeing with everything you’re typing today.

  17. Jon K says:

    I think there’d be a stronger basis to complain if the Oilers didn’t have another 2nd. They got one player in the 2nd and then, as noted by Maudite in the other thread, turned the 37th into five picks, four of which are in the top 100.

  18. Lowetide says:

    He’s a kid with skill, he’s a center and his NHLE is good. This is a good bet. The Oilers are going to have two more this round.

  19. Maverick says:

    Damn. NJD and David Conte drafted the kid I was hoping the Oilers would take a chance on Kujawinski.

  20. Ryan says:

    LMHF#1:
    Really tried to keep a positive perspective on this day. I would have taken Nichuskin at #7 but at least they didn’t go off the board. Now they’re trading back, didn’t get Coburn (yet, I guess), could’ve beat that offer for Bolland…Please do something good sometime soon.

    This is why I always bring up under-promise then over-deliver. Making it seem like you’re “in on everything” and then having a couple of days like these is just brutal.

    This. :)

  21. Ribs says:

    Well, who’s left on my board…..

    Sean Malone and Hunter Garlent – I can’t see them picking those guys without picking some monsters first.
    Slepyshev who probably won’t get drafted….

    I guess that leaves Dominik Kubalik and goalie Marcus Hogberg. Go picks!

    — Aw crap… My goalie just got picked.

  22. Gerta Rauss says:

    This kids plays center LT..?…yes..?

  23. BONVIE says:

    Maverick:
    Damn.NJD and David Conte drafted the kid I was hoping the Oilers would take a chance on Kujawinski.

    I am on board with you on this one.

  24. Maverick says:

    Kujawinski, Hayden two young big Centers gone. Now the swedish goalie Hogberg, HM on McKenzie’s list.

    With all the talk leading up to the draft, anyone else disappointed MacT didn’t delivery what he preached?

  25. Ducey says:

    Yakimov?

  26. Lucinius says:

    Maverick,

    I’m not really disappointed. They tried to do what they wanted a number of times, the price was too dear so they did the smarter thing.

  27. magisterrex says:

    Maverick:
    Kujawinski, Hayden two young big Centers gone. Now the swedish goalie Hogberg, HM on McKenzie’s list.

    With all the talk leading up to the draft, anyone else disappointed MacT didn’t delivery what he preached?

    Not at all. MacT went in with an Open For Business sign, but you can’t stay in business if you give everything away at below cost. Strategic thinking so far.

  28. DBO says:

    Ducey:
    Yakimov?

    God, imagine the stroke Harry neal would have trying to figure out who is who on the ice with Yakupov. Gino going to have a field day

  29. skidplate says:

    We get another Yak

  30. DBO says:

    new thread

  31. striatic says:

    Ducey: Yakimov?

    maybe the idea is stacking up on late picks and then drafting skilled Russian Junior and KHL young guys that no one else wants and figuring they can lure them to play with Yakupov in Edmonton?

  32. Maverick says:

    I think it is more on the lines that Edmonton has over valued their players for some time and now the reality might be settling in that teams don’t want our players that aren’t one of the super kids.

    Still would have liked a little more action, or improvement on the current roster.

    I do have more faith in MacT than Tambellini. Wasn’t a big Tambellini fan.

  33. Magnus says:

    Marc Olivier Roy isn’t a center.

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