OILERS AT 7: DARNELL NURSE

Oilers draft a big, tough defenseman. Highest pick for a blue in exactly forever. 6.04, 185. Tough defender, quick has some offense but this is a defender first when he arrives in the NHL. I had him #9 overall, saying “he’s an excellent prospect, 2-way guy with plenty of room to grow.”

  • Bob McKenzie: 9
  • Redline: 8
  • Craig Button: 8
  • ISS: 6
  • Craig Button: Big, strong and competitive and he imposes himself on opponents. Very strong skater with quickness, agility and balance and he uses it very effectively to close on plays defensively and to move play ahead and out of his defensive zone. Has expanded his overall game and especially his offensive game to the point where he is demonstrating the ability of a top minute defenceman who can contribute in all areas. Darnell is a very well rounded and dependable player who plays with a competitive spirit that says ‘I’m here to do whatever is necessary to win.’ The type who can ‘log’ lots of important minutes in a game and these are valuable players in the NHL.
  • International Scouting Services “Not only is Nurse an excellent 1 on 1 defender but he adds an intense mean streak to put fear in the opposition. He shows no hesitation in doing what it takes to win from blocking shots to dropping the mitts, Darnell was born to lead. Offensively he brings an arsenal of weapons whether it’s using his vision to find his man up ice or jumping up into the rush he continues to develop in these areas. He shows excellent mobility on the point and has great quickness for his size which makes him very effective in PP situations. He has a heavy shot but could stand to use it more often. Has all the tools to be a franchise defender and captain down the road.”
  • Kyle Woodlief — USA Today: Next up is the huge and rapidly improving Darnell Nurse, who is the most naturally physical defender available. He made good strides in his offensive game and has a heavy shot that is an asset on the power play. He likes to dish out punishment along the walls and easily separates his check from the puck. Nurse also scores off the charts in both his character and intelligence levels, and at a gangly 6-5, already has the footwork of a much smaller man.
  • Corey Pronman — Hockey Prospectus Nurse had a considerable amount of hype at the beginning of the season, and he has exceeded all expectations. He is a gifted physical player who has all the natural tools a scout could want from a defenseman. He has slowly begun to emerge as a two-way player, but his value comes from his high-end work in his own end. Nurse is a tall defender with an aggressive edge and the strength to consistently push his checks off pucks. He has above-average mobility, especially considering his larger size. With his wingspan, he is able to make a multitude of plays in the defensive end. I have heard previous concerns from scouts about his offensive upside, but he took a step forward in that element this season. He will not be a dynamic offensive threat, but he can move the puck at an above-average level, and join the rush on occasion. He projects as a point man on a second power play unit, while logging the tough defensive minutes. Nurse’s next level of progression will have to come from his below-average shot.
  • OHL PROSPECTS: 1. Darnell Nurse – Defenseman – Sault Ste. Marie Greyhounds
    At this point, Nurse is definitely my top prospect available from the OHL. All season long, I wrestled back and forth between Monahan and Nurse. But it’s clearly Nurse now IMO. He possesses so much potential at the next level. He could be a perennial Norris candidate IMO. The thing I like most about Nurse is how much he improved this season from the last. You need to look at that progression and think about just how good he could be, if he continues to tap into his athletic bloodlines (father was a CFL player), and continues to improve. He’s certainly a potential dynamo at both ends of the ice. His size (6’5, pushing 200lbs), makes him an asset in the defensive end. As does his skating ability. He’s incredibly difficult to get around and he’s physical enough to intimidate. As he gets stronger, I expect his physical game to become more consistent and more effective. He certainly has the mentality to be a bruiser. In the defensive end, he’s still learning a bit. He can get caught out of position at times, but with strong coaching I think this improves. Offensively, he went through the biggest transformation this season. He looked very poised and confident with the puck and took chances in leading and joining the rush. His skating ability makes him a threat offensively. He’s also got an absolute cannon of a shot that will only get better as he gets stronger. His play on the powerplay is improving. This year, with Ryan Sproul and Colin Miller on the point, Nurse was relegated to the 2nd unit. Next year, it’ll be his show to run and I expect very big things from him. When all is said and done, Nurse has the potential to be one of those defenseman who doesn’t really have any holes in his game. He’s the complete package and I think he’s the 2nd defenseman off the board after Seth Jones.
  • Stats (OHL): 68, 12-29-41
  • NHLE: 82, 4-11-15

The brilliant Eric T. also has some interesting info in regard to opposition faced (Nurse faced 2nd toughs) and it is here.

 

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319 Responses to "OILERS AT 7: DARNELL NURSE"

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  1. Marc says:

    BlacqueJacque:
    Feaster’s scouts had their 3 picks in the top 13.

    He needs better scouts.

    I wonder if we could do a Kickstarter to get a copy of that list.

    I’m in for £20

  2. Death By Misadventure says:

    Marc,

    Yeah hard to complain.

    Still jeebus that’s a lot of D prospects for the Oil. Can’t have enough D propects though. No matter how many we have, half will never make it just due to injury, bad luck etc. etc.

  3. pboy says:

    Do the players still go up to the stage after the 1st round?

  4. godot10 says:

    If Fucale gets past Colorado, maybe Coburn for #37 plus is on.

  5. spoiler says:

    NHL on TSN@NHLonTSN

    James Duthie spoke with Luongo. Luongo is in shock and not doing any interviews. #TSN #NHLDraft

  6. knighttown says:

    If we’re in Fucale watch I’d say the grenades who might want him before we select are Chicago and Tampa. Perhaps the Avs and Canes but they are in decent shape in net. Montreal twice is a concern even with Price because of the hometown factor.

  7. Death By Misadventure says:

    Lucinius,

    I hear ya. How did Smid go 9th again? Don’t get me wrong, love the player that he has become, but at 9th you gotta think a player will bring some offense.

    Nurse will bring offense right? Right?

  8. skidplate says:

    I wanted Hartman for the Oilers, dammit

  9. maudite says:

    Nurse or 7th, 2nd rounder and prospect for Schneider…. I’m calling it a win. Teams with pipelines full of solid defensive prospects are never a bad thing. You likely have klefbom coming this year, marincin following next (with a couple games up this year) musil and gernat in the mix the following and then nurse. Too bad timelines weren’t reversed as it will be near impossible to hold onto our forward depth and we are truly shallow at centre…be interesting to see how it all works. Any centres we can Rfa offer sheet this year? Really need to bump the timeline up and stealing one seems the best possible solution.

  10. Lowetide says:

    For the second round

    L Artturi Lehkonen: Skill winger has some outstanding potential but lacks size.
    C Nicolas Petan: Small and extremely skilled.
    C JT Compher: Skill C, agitator with talent.
    L Adam Erne: Skill W has some toughness.
    R Valentin Zykov: Solid offensive player with good size, plays a physical style.
    D Madison Bowey: Smooth. Fine skater, lots of potential.
    C Laurent Dauphin: A very nice skill player.
    #32–G Tristan Jarry: If we’re to believe SP, then he belongs here.
    #34–L Pavel Buchnevich: Exceptional skill winger, puck skills are the main calling card.
    #35–D Chris Bigras: Two-way defender with good speed and surprising defensive acumen for his age.
    #36–G Zach Fucale: His skills very good: skating, lateral mobility & positional approach to the game.*
    #38–R Oliver Bjorkstrand: I love this player. Nice range of skills, great numbers and resume.
    #39–G Erik Comrie: 7th best SP in the WHL, has been a prospect of interest for a long time.
    #40–L Jacob de la Rose: Can play any F position, gets opportunities, may not be a natural scorer.*
    #42–L William Carrier: Big guy with skill, Pronman’s description of his skating is interesting.
    #43–D Steve Santini: A solid defender with good speed, very strong, physical player.
    #44–L Anthony DuClair: Speedy winger with some skill, lacks consistency.
    #45–R Justin Bailey: Nice range of skills, impressive resume save for being an awkward skater.
    #46–R Nick Sorenson: Tall, thin winger with a nice range of skills.
    #47–L Anton Slepshyev: Passed through last year’s draft, remains a quality prospect.
    #49–L Juuso Ikonen: Small, ridiculous skill and an elite passer.
    #50–R Jimmy Lodge: Skill winger who can impact the game.
    #51–C Greg Chase: Nice combination of skill and grit.
    #53–C John Hayden: Big center with some skill.
    #54–D Linus Arnesson: Defensive defender is an excellent skater.
    #55–L Peter Cehlarik: Skill W with size.
    #57–D Robert Hagg: Has very good skating ability with quickness, agility & power.*
    #58–D Dillon Heatherington: Mobile defender can close gaps.
    #59–D Keaton Thompson: Consistent 2-way defender.
    #60–C Miro Aaltonen: 20 year old C with great skill. Undersized.

    Lots left, bet #37 is on the way to PHI or STL

  11. TheseColoursDontRun says:

    Old dude just spat so bad there.

  12. Lucinius says:

    TheseColoursDontRun,

    Old dude is so bad at this.

  13. Ribs says:

    Hopin’ for Carrier, Heatherington,or Slepyshev (if he plans to come to NHL) now.

  14. speeds says:

    maudite,

    Derek Stepan?

  15. Marc says:

    Lowetide,

    Just for something completely different, here is Springsteen’s set list from the Glastonbury Festival tonight:

    01 – Shackled and Drawn
    02 – Badlands
    03 – Prove It All Night (solo by Nils, no intro)
    04 – Johnny 99 (Sign Request)
    05 – Reason to Believe (Sign Request)
    06 – Atlantic City
    07 – Wrecking Ball
    08 – Death to My Hometown

    09 – Born in the U.S.A.
    10 – Cover Me
    11 – Darlington County
    12 – Working on the Highway
    13 – Downbound Train
    14 – I’m on Fire
    15 – No Surrender
    16 – Bobby Jean
    17 – I’m Goin’ Down
    18 – Glory Days
    19 – Dancing in the Dark
    20 – My Hometown

    21 – Waitin’ On a Sunny Day
    22 – Lonesome Day
    23 – The Rising
    24 – Light of Day

    Encore:
    25 – Jungleland
    26 – Born to Run
    27 – 10th Avenue Freeze-Out
    28 – American Land

    29 – My Lucky Day (Acoustic)

  16. Lowetide says:

    Marc: That’s a wonderful list.

  17. godot10 says:

    Good trade for Carolina.

  18. spoiler says:

    That Old Guy is Lou Lamariello’s grandpappy, isn’t it

  19. LP says:

    Ryan Rishaug ‏@TSNRyanRishaug 42s

    Mactavish and Lombardi chatting, Howson in there too

  20. knighttown says:

    Crap!

    Hagg I guess.

  21. BlacqueJacque says:

    Aww, we almost got Fucale =/

  22. spoiler says:

    TRADE!

  23. Jon K says:

    Well, wasn’t expecting that.

  24. fifthcartel says:

    WHY!

  25. BlacqueJacque says:

    Not really a fan of this.

    Undoing Tambo’s damage by going for more at-bats in a draft that may be a round and a half deep?

  26. gogliano says:

    I like it. 3 bullets. #57 isn’t too far off from #37 chances wise.

  27. bookje says:

    Craig MacTavish 3.0 – Random trades are easy.

  28. skidplate says:

    1 for 3, wasn`t it supposed to be 3 for 1ÉÉÉ

  29. knighttown says:

    Like it. They wanted Fucale.

  30. Ryan says:

    Dan Tencer ‏@dantencer 22s
    Edmonton trades 37 to LA for 57, 88 and 96

    bah…

    Alan, I’ll trade you (your) $100 bill for (my) five dollar bill, toonie, and a loonie…

    That work for you?

  31. bookje says:

    After #40-45 the odds of a player making the NHL drop rapidly. I don’t like this at all. Not sure about the logic.

  32. Ducey says:

    There is not really anyone that stands out at this point so might as well get more bullets.

  33. Lowetide says:

    I like the additions, would dearly love to see them trade right back in here and think they might.

  34. Death By Misadventure says:

    In Stu I no longer trust.

    Well not really, but wtf was that?

  35. Lucinius says:

    I think the Oilers have a feeling they know who they want and that they’ll be there later. Also looks like the people they wanted were taken in the picks right before their own.

  36. skidplate says:

    What were the draft picks againÉ

  37. Ribs says:

    Well, um…..Huh. Alright.

  38. Lucinius says:

    Never a good sign when the GM has to ask for the name while announcing.

  39. Death By Misadventure says:

    Ducey,

    Do the Oilers need more bullets?

    If weren’t sure about using #37, should have beat the Carolina offer for Sekera. (I know I know, easier said than done)

  40. maudite says:

    speeds,

    Never even thought of that one. Need a lap top to pull up multiple pages now lol

  41. Ribs says:

    Ryan Rishaug ‏@TSNRyanRishaug 4m
    Oilers wanted Fucale. Lombardi was at Oiler table, As soon as Fucale was gone Mactavish and Lombardi shook hands, picks swapped.

    Still goalie hunting I guess.

  42. bill needle says:

    The Oilers needed more third and fourth round picks because they need more Heskeths and Abneys.

  43. skidplate says:

    57, 88 and 96 for 37.

    I like it, more chances and get picks back for the Fistric and Smithson fiascos

  44. Ryan says:

    “Being a GM is a lot harder than I thought.”

    - Craig MacTavish

  45. Ducey says:

    Death By Misadventure:
    Ducey,

    Do the Oilers need more bullets?

    If weren’t sure about using #37, should have beat the Carolina offer for Sekera. (I know I know, easier said than done)

    They need as many bullets as possible. In a deep draft get as many picks as you can.

    Heck Lou seems to know what he is doing and just did it.

  46. skidplate says:

    And more chances of trades……hopefully

  47. spoiler says:

    This shows epic confidence in one’s scouting staff. MacGregor looked heavily involved in that trade.

  48. Ryan says:

    skidplate:
    57, 88 and 96 for 37.

    I like it, more chances and get picks back for the Fistric and Smithson fiascos

    I’m not a draft guru, but an 88 and a 96 are basically 0.0000000008 % chance of playing in the NHL

    the 57 is worse than the 37.

    Pretty dumb stuff by my math.

  49. rich says:

    Ryan:
    “Being a GM is a lot harder than I thought.”

    - Craig MacTavish

    This.

  50. Ribs says:

    Elie ranked 116th by Pronman.

  51. Ducey says:

    Ryan: I’m not a draft guru, but an 88 and a 96 are basically 0.0000000008 % chance of playing in the NHL

    the 57 is worse than the 37.

    Pretty dumb stuff by my math.

    There will still be a good goalie at that point.

  52. BlacqueJacque says:

    … wtf how were we not in on that Bolland trade?!

  53. Death By Misadventure says:

    Ducey,

    I hear ya. Regardless, here comes the Glenlivet.

    On the other hand, Lombardi has killed in the 2nd round and he just traded up. (DSF do not latch on to this)

  54. Lowetide says:

    Great trade for Toronto, wonder if that was available to Edmonton (WC).

  55. Lucinius says:

    BlacqueJacque,

    Probably 10-15 teams thinking that.

  56. Undisclosed_Personal_Reasons says:

    bookje:
    Gregor broke things down a few years ago.

    http://oilersnation.com/2011/2/25/value-in-acquiring-draft-picks

    This breakdown suggests this was a good move by MacT.

  57. maudite says:

    Artem, Dubinsky, kerby rychel, Tim Erixon for Nash, a 3rd and Steven deliles…unless deliles reAlly is something that deal is looking great.

  58. russ99 says:

    Ugh. Hopefully MacT is more active on FA…

    But I suspect this is due to is not having good trade chips, player wise, comparatively.

  59. bookje says:

    Undisclosed_Personal_Reasons: This breakdown suggests this was a good move by MacT.

    Not if you consider a 37th as being not far from the first round and a 57th as being pretty close to the third round.

  60. PaperDesigner says:

    The question is when the draft depth drops off a cliff this year. Even if drafts typically drop off in the middle of the second round, that means nothing for this year’s draft.

    If the quality has already dropped off by the start of the second round, it’s a good deal.

    If it does sometime after pick number 56, it’s a good deal.

    If the good players end around 45, well, maybe not so good.

    But hey, let’s see what they get for these picks first, eh? Or if MacTavish deals them.

  61. bookje says:

    Lowetide:
    Great trade for Toronto, wonder if that was available to Edmonton (WC).

    MacT probably wants more size at centre.

  62. gogliano says:

    bookje:
    Gregor broke things down a few years ago.

    http://oilersnation.com/2011/2/25/value-in-acquiring-draft-picks

    By this assessment it is a pretty clear win of a trade.

    Scooped. But #37 seems far off from the average pick in Round #1, especially since round #1 includes the top 10 or so picks where odds escalate rapidly.

  63. CM says:

    I’d Rather have 42 and 73 than the extra pick in the 3rd round.

    Why is it when the oil trade down we always give up value.

  64. Undisclosed_Personal_Reasons says:

    bookje,

    if there is a difference, the percentage of decent players in the third (15.2%) and fourth (8.6%) would seem to more than make up any difference in swapping 2nd rounders (21.5%).

    seems like a good trade.

  65. PunjabiOil says:

    No VN.

    No Coburn.

    Zykov, Jarry, Petan all passed on.

    Fuck.

  66. Jon K says:

    So we basically send off the 37th to fix Tambellini’s crappy trades. Lovely.

  67. PunjabiOil says:

    Yup, 42 and 73 is better than 57, 88, and 96 IMO.

    Oilers organization got schooled by Lou – 10 years later.

  68. Ryan says:

    Is it just me or does it feel like Toonces is still running this team? I thought we fired Tambo? :)

    Seriously, so far this is a big let down after all of the hype of trading the 2nds for NHL players.

  69. gogliano says:

    Undisclosed_Personal_Reasons:
    bookje,

    the breakdown doesn’t look at differences within the second round, so the source can’t be used to support that assumption.

    if there is a difference, the percentage of decent players in the third (15.2%) and fourth (8.6%) would seem to more than make up any difference in swapping 2nd rounders.

    seems like a good trade.

    Yup. If you map it, seems like a steep descent in the early first round that starts to taper decently before round #2.

  70. maudite says:

    I would like to believe Lou is like one of the old lawyers on the firm (I am not a Grisham fan… Please don’t judge me for this) any new gms he gets them wasted at their meeting then sets them up with a hot hooker and dangles the photos over them for the rest of their tenures.

  71. sliderule says:

    So the Stu the nsm who told Tambo when giving up a pick third or fourth doesnt matter now covets those late picks more than no 37.

    Wtf goes on with this bunch of retards

  72. theres oil in virginia says:

    From Rishaug’s tweeter:
    Mactavish headed back to Philli table now. Talking with Holmgren. Pronger there too.

    I guess they’re trying to get Pronger back so he can retire as an Oiler!

  73. PaperDesigner says:

    Guys, they traded back twenty spots, in the second round, for three picks, including another second rounder.

    This is hardly a clear loss. Do you honestly think the guy at 37 must necessarily be better than all three of the other picks? Do you have such a clear read on the draft this lat that you know that they’re getting screwed? Honestly, I don’t think that once you get past the first ten or fifteen picks, you have many known quantities. The guy who goes 60th could be a star, the guy who goes 31st could be a total bust.

    Or is this just frustration that MacTavish hasn’t dealt for actual NHL players yet?

    Let’s wait out the day at least.

  74. striatic says:

    let’s see what these masterminds have planned with these picks.

  75. skidplate says:

    I think we get the trade for an established player very soon.

  76. PaperDesigner says:

    Ryan:
    Is it just me or does it feel like Toonces is still running this team?I thought we fired Tambo?

    Seriously, so far this is a big let down after all of the hype of trading the 2nds for NHL players.

    If they deal the #56 and #57 for Coburn anyway, and now have a third and fourth round pick as well to show for it, does MacTavish suddenly look like a genius?

    Not saying it happens. It’s just too early to get too worked up.

    Except about picking Nurse over Nickushkin. Blargh. But that’s a bone to pick with Stu MacGregor, I think. Not an awful pick, but I don’t see Nurse as BPA.

  77. Pablo Aimar says:

    Hope they don’t trade MPS for Coburn.

  78. Marc says:

    Ryan: I’m not a draft guru, but an 88 and a 96 are basically 0.0000000008 % chance of playing in the NHL

    the 57 is worse than the 37.

    Pretty dumb stuff by my math.

    Roughly 1 in 4 players picked in the second round play 200 games in the NHL. There’s not much difference in the success rates of players picked at the begining of the round and those at the end, but lets say for arguments sake that the 37 has a 1/3 chance of succeeding and the 57 a 1/4 chance..

    Roughly 1 in 8 players picked in the third round or later play 200 games, so the Oilers essentially traded a 1/3 chance for a 1/4 and a 2/8 chance. That seems reasonable to me.

    The bottom line is though, that all 4 picks are much more likely than not to fail.

  79. Lucinius says:

    Pablo Aimar,

    Don’t get my blood up.

    I’d go nuts.

  80. DBO says:

    Flyers and Oilers talking trade on dance floor according to a million people on twitter. walking back and forth from each table.

  81. Lowetide says:

    Man are there skill guys left. Incredible.

  82. DBO says:

    Comrie guaranteed an Oiler unless they move the 2nd’s for Coburn

  83. Pablo Aimar says:

    Lucinius,

    Yeah they need to keep MPS. Looks like Coburn won’t happen anyway.

  84. Dark Asia says:

    Are you guys blind? MacT and Lowe had just as much and probably a lot more to do with the Smithson and Brown trades than sock puppet Tambo. MacT just traded down to fix HIS OWN previous deals that paved the way for him taking over as GM. Tambo was a lame duck most of the time but he was a complete empty suit in his last year. Remember management by committee?

  85. Ryan says:

    bookje:
    Gregor broke things down a few years ago.

    http://oilersnation.com/2011/2/25/value-in-acquiring-draft-picks

    That breakdown isn’t super useful.

    The problem is his breakdown is by round, so it doesn’t account for position within a round.

    i.e the value of an early 2nd vs a late 2nd.

    For an early 2nd rounder let’s try this.

    If a first rounder is a 39.5% bust and a 2nd rounder is 77.3% … for an early 2nd rounder if you average the two, you’re around 60%

    For a late second rounder, you’re looking at 80% chance of a bust

    That’s a 20% decrement

    The 88 is a very late 3rd with roughly 88% bust potential

    The 96 is roughly a 90% bust potential.

    Square that off an you’re getting two 1/10 chances for a decent player with nearly a zero chance of getting a dominant player.

    Wrap that up and you’re dropping a 20% chance of getting a decent player (37 to 57) in exchange for two 1/10 chances of decent players.

    The exchange sort of squares off except that you’re losing a ~5% chance for a dominant player against ~0.3%.

    On another note, is there any history for a trading down for extra picks ever giving the team trading down a win?

  86. RexLibris says:

    Walkabout?

  87. Magnus says:

    Roy… Like this pick. He was one of the players of interest on my list.
    Guessing Comrie next

  88. Pablo Aimar says:

    Uh oh…

    What are they going to give up for Coburn?

  89. skidplate says:

    Roy, sounds like a good pick. Needs to fill out, but lots of skill. I like.

  90. Ryan says:

    Marc: Roughly 1 in 4 players picked in the second round play 200 games in the NHL. There’snotmuch difference in the success rates of players picked at the begining of the round and those at the end, but lets say for arguments sake that the 37 has a 1/3 chance of succeeding and the 57 a 1/4 chance..

    Roughly 1 in 8 players picked in the third round or later play 200 games, so the Oilers essentially traded a 1/3 chance for a 1/4 and a 2/8 chance.That seems reasonable to me.

    The bottom line is though, that all 4 picks are much more likely than not to fail.

    see my more detailed breakdown. :)

  91. Numenius says:

    Lowetide:
    Man are there skill guys left. Incredible.

    Is Petan still there? Wouldn’t that be a steal to get him.

  92. skidplate says:

    another 1 for 3. A 3rd and 4th and 5th for 57.

  93. Ducey says:

    Oh oh, another Marc – :)

    Seems like a decent pick

  94. skidplate says:

    57 for 83, 84 and 113.

    Roy was a good pick, lets keep it going and get this trade done.

  95. DBO says:

    mother fucker. 3 more picks. Maybe MacT has a different definition of bold.

  96. BlacqueJacque says:

    I wonder if LT’s love affair with Mac is fading.

  97. Magnus says:

    That’s awesome. More late picks. In a few years we might have the best team in the AHL.

  98. Death By Misadventure says:

    Magnus,

    hahahaha I was thinking the same thing.

    I didn’t know MacT was hired to continue to the fine work of Tambo in rebuilding the depth chart of Stockton and Oklahoma.

  99. Rondo says:

    Eventually Oilers will have all the picks in the 7th round

  100. PaperDesigner says:

    Considering there have been a couple of NHL players dealt for depth draft picks, I wonder if MacTavish is trying to load up to deal for a couple of them out of third and fourth round picks?

  101. maudite says:

    Wierd so 37th for What exactly? This deal will take years to determine actual worth lmao.

  102. skidplate says:

    As would the 37th pick

  103. gogliano says:

    Ryan: That breakdown isn’t super useful.

    The problem is his breakdown is by round, so it doesn’t account for position within a round.

    i.ethe value of an early 2nd vs a late 2nd.

    For an early 2nd rounder let’s try this.

    If a first rounder is a 39.5% bust and a 2nd rounder is 77.3% … for an early 2nd rounder if you average the two, you’re around 60%

    For a late second rounder, you’re looking at 80% chance of a bust

    That’s a 20% decrement

    The 88 is a very late 3rd with roughly 88% bust potential

    The 96 is roughly a 90% bust potential.

    Square that off an you’re getting two 1/10 chances for a decent player with nearly a zero chance of getting a dominant player.

    Wrap that up and you’re dropping a 20% chance of getting a decent player (37 to 57) in exchange for two 1/10 chances of decent players.

    The exchange sort of squares off except that you’re losing a ~5% chance for a dominant player against ~0.3%.

    On another note, is there any history for a trading down for extra picks ever giving the team trading down a win?

    Except that there is a huge drop off in chances from 1-10 to 20-30, as evidenced by the high likelihood that dominant players go in the top 10. So taking the Round 1 average isn’t helpful.

  104. Death By Misadventure says:

    DBO,

    I don’t understand how the Oilers need more picks? Really, more building through the draft?

    I’m guessing at this point MacT has completely written off free agency.

    Ok, I apologize, I’ve been drinking.

  105. Undisclosed_Personal_Reasons says:

    Ryan:

    EDIT: What Gogliano said.

  106. bookje says:

    …and with the final pick of the day, The Edmonton Oilers select every player in the last round.

  107. Death By Misadventure says:

    Is it too early to talk about the 2014 draft? :)

  108. Magnus says:

    Right now, with these moves, MacGregor better deliver with these late picks or both he and the GM will look like idiots. Considering several quality prospects were passed on.

  109. maudite says:

    83, 84, 88, 96 and 113 for 37th…I don’t hate this. If 37th was a goalie you can grab two in this range (so 4th And 5th best draft eligible goalies really) and still have some random shots in the top 100 really

  110. skinny65 says:

    Oilers have 83, 88, 94, 96. Talk about blah. Where are the nhl def? Fuckkk, MacT really talked big and it makes him look bad. Really disappointing.

  111. theres oil in virginia says:

    Death By Misadventure,

    No worries, man. I think drinking is a requirement for this exercise.

  112. PunjabiOil says:

    Since 2000, the only 3rd and 4th round picks that have “turned out” – Peckham and Stortini.

    The last impact 3rd rounder to turn out for the Oilers were Mike Comrie in 1999.

    It was a big mistake not to select one of Petan, Jarry, or Zykov at 36.

    MacTavish – this is Kevin Lowe summer 2007 all over again. That’s why you don’t talk overpromise and underdeliver.

  113. Lowetide says:

    BlacqueJacque:
    I wonder if LT’s love affair with Mac is fading.

    Not at all.

  114. PaperDesigner says:

    Frolik was acquired for a third and fifth round pick.

    Can two similar players be found for a third and fourth?

  115. Rondo says:

    I think MacT is relying on this video

    http://www.sloansportsconference.com/?p=600

  116. RexLibris says:

    I don’t have a real problem with this trading down.

    The Oilers desperately needed to add depth because a lot of the 2010 class has been separated into the wins and busts. Given that many of these players need to complete junior, that pipeline needs to be restocked so that in two to four years the Oilers aren’t looking at a barren future…you know,…like the Canucks.

  117. RexLibris says:

    I kind of like the Yakimov pick.

    And I LOVE the Flames’ Kanzig pick. Can you wear training skates in the NHL?

  118. zilong says:

    <blockquote

    PunjabiOil:
    It was a big mistake not to select one of Petan, Jarry, or Zykov at 36.

    I’ll trust that they had plenty of notes on Jarry and found him lacking for some reason. Goalies are so hard to project.

    As for the other two, I guess Petan was too small and Zykov too… Russian?? Kidding. I don’t know anything about this player. Hopefully we use all these picks to acquire some real NHL players. Bolland and Frolik went for low picks.

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