SIGNING SAMWISE

A rumor from the big Smoke on the weekend had the Oilers and Leafs talking about Sam Gagner, with all kinds of names apparently coming back. The rumor wasn’t just the internet rolling either, there was an msm report.

rimer

Rimer is the fellow what had the ‘Oilers dismiss Krueger’ item out there in advance of the stampede, so would have to be considered a reasonable source for actual information. However, Bob Stauffer tweeted later in the day that he expects the Oilers to sign him to a multi-year deal in short order. Gagner himself seems to be speaking about being a part of the team next season.

  • Gagner: “There’s been a lot of change since I’ve been there, and it just makes it that much more hungry to turn things around. That’s the exciting part, from my perspective. I’ve been through all of this and now we have a chance with the group we have to move forward.”

So, we wait. In discussing Gagner’s contract, most of us have settled in at about $4.5M a year times 4-6 years, but it might cost a little more to get him based on some recent contracts. We’ll see, I’m hopeful they get it done.

ESTIMATED DEPTH CHART WITH GAGNER SIGNED

  • Nuge-Hall-Eberle
  • Gagner-????-Yakupov
  • ????-Paajarvi-????
  • ????-Smyth-Brown
  • Smid-Petry
  • ????-J Schultz
  • N Schultz-Potter
  • Belov
  • Dubnyk-????

One final thing: this Gagner contract shouldn’t be an issue this season. If Steve Tambellini had been on the ball the long term contract at under $5M a year would be in place now and it would be one less thing on the table. It’s galling, has been since it didn’t happen a year ago, and ‘didn’t happen a year ago’ will be associated with the ST era for a long damn time.

Why didn’t they sign him long term a year ago?

  • Rick Olczyk:Consistency is something he wants to improve on and it’s something we’d like to see. We saw glimpses of it last year and he had several stretches where he was really hot, but we want him to be more productive throughout the season. I think he’s capable of doing that and I know he knows he’s capable of doing that. We’re anxious to see him accomplish it.”

Now? The Oilers can see glimpses of several million more dollars leaving their wallets on a long term deal, as the ‘inconsistent’ Gagner enjoyed the best offensive season of his career, owns arb rights that could make him a free agent one year from now, and earned the respect of his teammates to the point the new GM has made signing him a priority.

If Steve Tambellini were still here, we could send him a list of guys who should never reach the point where they own the player hammers. Nuge, Yak, J Schultz and when his contract is up again Taylor Hall. Craig MacTavish is going to spend the summer cleaning up Steve Tambellini’s mess, and Sam Gagner’s contract will be one of the most expensive.

I’m off today, my good friend Jeff Krushell will be guest host. Please tune him in, the guy is wicked smart and a fun listen.

written by

The author didn‘t add any Information to his profile yet.
Related Posts

81 Responses to "SIGNING SAMWISE"

  1. Lowetide says:

    OKC signs Joey Leach to an AHL deal
    http://okcbarons.com/index.cfm?fa=pressreleases&ra=showarticle&guid=FFAE699B-4A28-4172-B7B0-DDBE4A5823A2

    It’s important because the Oilers are apparently going to have fewer players in OKC this season. So Leach is going to occupy a spot, along with (possibly) Klefbom, Marincin, Fedun, Davidson, Gernat, Musil and whoever I’ve forgotten.

  2. DBO says:

    all our hope of a quick move, trade then signing on day 1 of UFA day may not be a reality. i say this actually in hopes that MacT is as smart as he seems. Waiting for the buyouts to see what the landscape truly is will be important. If he has a good deal fro Hemmer or horc, then great. If not, especially for Horc who’s ntc goes away July 1st, then waiting is better for the team (just not for all of us).

  3. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    The “prove it to me” contract was unmitigated stupidity.

    Given that quote above, one wonders why these lesser lights still have a job. We’re are still waiting on word for the coachs… but the lesser managers, scouts, etc. all need to re-apply for their jobs against a competitive field.

    I have very little confidence Olczyk would retain employment under those conditions. Same for Gare and co.

  4. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Lowetide:
    OKC signs Joey Leach to an AHL deal
    http://okcbarons.com/index.cfm?fa=pressreleases&ra=showarticle&guid=FFAE699B-4A28-4172-B7B0-DDBE4A5823A2

    It’s important because the Oilers are apparently going to have fewer players in OKC this season. So Leach is going to occupy a spot, along with (possibly) Klefbom, Marincin, Fedun, Davidson, Gernat, Musil and whoever I’ve forgotten.

    Thanks for keeping tabs on this. the OKC roster will be of interest to a lot of us come Oct. this year. It will be interesting to see how many vets (AHL caliber) they bring in and how much rope Nelson gives them vs. the NHL prospect list.

    Is Leach the Stafford replacement? Can he play that much?

    Do you think Deck gets another AHL cup? any chance a Euro or College kid unexpectedly jumps to pro?

  5. Lowetide says:

    I think the Oilers/Barons will have a veteran G as starter, and add a center (proabably VandeVelde) plus Arcobello who is already signed.

    The interesting watch is on blue. Teubert? Plante? Leach doesn’t qualify as an AHL veteran (1 ahl game) so would guess 1 AHL vet is added.

  6. lance says:

    I’ve heard little from Tambo for a month, I hope he’s writing a book. I would love to know the real inner workings of this carnival. Like, when his phone rang and another GM asked about Sam, what did they actually offer? I would really love to know.

    I bet I’d even read a book by one of those exiled equipment managers.

  7. jonrmcleod says:

    This is off topic, but I’m wondering if there’s a way to find “penalties drawn” for individual games. I seem to recall that Fistric drew a pile of penalty minutes in one game but can’t remember what game it was.

  8. WeridAl says:

    Is it Tambellini’s fault or is it a sign of the times, where players play out their contracts to get maximum value. Allen your hate for Tambo has clouded your judgement, just look around the league and you see this happening, not just in Edmonton. Good chance VandeVelde will sign somewhere else, there has been interest by other teams I understand. Teubert will be resign, due to the lack of right handed shots in the Oilers system. The ATO signing by the OKC Barons of Joey Leach, could be the end of Plante’s career with the Oilers.

  9. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    jonrmcleod:
    This is off topic, but I’m wondering if there’s a way to find “penalties drawn” for individual games. I seem to recall that Fistric drew a pile of penalty minutes in one game but can’t remember what game it was.

    That game early in the year where the refs pulled out the arcane penalties on Smid stands out for me…

    But for individual games just go to nhl.com and look up the game sheets, the one you want is the “play by play” sheet… like this for sat:

    http://www.nhl.com/scores/htmlreports/20122013/PL030415.HTM

    if there is an easier way I don’t know it.

    For aggregate pens. drawn and taken per 60 go to behindthenet.ca

  10. Jesse says:

    Lowetide: OKC signs Joey Leach to an AHL dealhttp://okcbarons.com/index.cfm?fa=pressreleases&ra=showarticle&guid=FFAE699B-4A28-4172-B7B0-DDBE4A5823A2It’s important because the Oilers are apparently going to have fewer players in OKC this season. So Leach is going to occupy a spot, along with (possibly) Klefbom, Marincin, Fedun, Davidson, Gernat, Musil and whoever I’ve forgotten.

    Gosh, that’s an exciting group of D prospects. It’s especially exciting to have their careers all coalescing in the final step before the show. It seems like a special group. I know you’d normally only expect one or two to come out of a group of that size, but (and not to count chickens) Kelfbom, Marincin, and any one of Fedun, Davidson, Gernat, or Musil has a good shot. That’s a nice group.

  11. WeridAl says:

    Musil and Gernat I believe still have eligibility to play another year in the WHL as 20yr. I believe the Oilers will keep Gernat in the WHL and Musil will make the jump to the AHL. Whatever happens it gives the Oilers a couple of options.

  12. Jesse says:

    A book or even media availability from Tambo would be interesting, but I think I prefer ignorance of the deals that he didn’t make. If they were good deals, then I’d probably be infuriated that he dithered — if they were poor deals, I’d be infuriated that he’d even consider them. There’s not much closure to be had there imo. I heard Craig Button on Oilers Now the other day saying that he had the opportunity to trade Derek Morris for Roberto Luongo back when he was with Calgary, but chose not to. I couldn’t believe that he admitted to that on air, but there you have it. If I heard anything even remotely close to that kind of thing from Tambellini it would not do my blood pressure any good at all.

  13. LMHF#1 says:

    WeridAl:
    . I believe the Oilers will keep Gernat in the WHL and Musil will make the jump to the AHL.

    So you take the guy with the high potential and stagnate him…then take the guy who’s maybe a #6 eventually and send him along instead? What?

  14. Lowetide says:

    Based on a conversation I had with an eastern NHL scout, Gernat is extremely likely to pass Musil at the pro level. Maybe very early.

  15. LMHF#1 says:

    Lowetide:
    Based on a conversation I had with an eastern NHL scout, Gernat is extremely likely to pass Musil at the pro level. Maybe very early.

    Isn’t he already past him?

  16. Lowetide says:

    LMHF#1: Isn’t he already past him?

    Sure. However, when they reach pro these guys all re-set imo. For instance, Klefbom may enter TC as an NHL player but that doesn’t mean a whole helluva lot. Gernat has a nice range of skills and I think he’ll find a way to pass Musil (whose footspeed is may be an issue) but we don’t know how the OKC top 6 will look opening night.

  17. russ99 says:

    Good article on OKC’s roster possibilities:

    http://newsok.com/okc-barons-oilers-and-barons-have-a-lot-of-roster-decisions-to-make/article/3842913

    Looks like we need a lot of help at forward, especially if Green and Cheechoo leave as FAs and Lander graduates to 4th line duty for the Oil.

    Other than Ewanyk, are there any forward prospects of note ready to move up to the AHL?

  18. WeridAl says:

    Lowetide,

    LT you of all people should know that Musil and Gernat are 2 different types of D. Gernat is your PMD and Musil is more of your gritty stay at home D. One of Gernat’s problems is his lack of bulk, needs to put on the pounds if he’s ever going to make the jump. The OKC Barons have Davidson, Marincin, and Fedun all with a year experience in the AHL, you would think the team would want some veteran presences on the backend. Gernat and Musil will not both make the Barons and one will either end up in Stockton (if they renew their association with the Oilers) or they keep one in the WHL. If Plante is not resigned the decision will be Musil, not much grit on the backend, and they would need Musil’s and yes Teubert’s presence.

    As to stagnating a player, what’s better, sitting on the bench or up in the press box or playing all the time?

  19. LMHF#1 says:

    Lowetide: Sure. However, when they reach pro these guys all re-set imo.For instance, Klefbom may enter TC as an NHL player but that doesn’t mean a whole helluva lot. Gernat has a nice range of skills and I think he’ll find a way to pass Musil (whose footspeed is may be an issue) but we don’t know how the OKC top 6 will look opening night.

    Fair enough I suppose. I do wonder about Gernat’s future as a defenceman. Mainly because his range of skills and size would make him an absolutely dynamite forward. I’m crazy like that though. I doubt our coaches are.

  20. fifthcartel says:

    russ99,

    Isn’t Kessy going to be graduating to OKC, or maybe more likely, Stockton.

  21. Lowetide says:

    WeridAl:
    Lowetide,

    LT you of all people should know that Musil and Gernat are 2 different types of D. Gernat is your PMD and Musil is more of your gritty stay at home D. One of Gernat’s problems is his lack of bulk, needs to put on the pounds if he’s ever going to make the jump. The OKC Barons have Davidson, Marincin, and Fedun all with a year experience in the AHL, you would think the team would want some veteran presences on the backend. Gernat and Musil will not both make the Barons and one will either end up in Stockton (if they renew their association with the Oilers) or they keep one in the WHL. If Plante is not resigned the decision will be Musil, not much grit on the backend, and they would need Musil’s and yes Teubert’s presence.

    As to stagnating a player, what’s better, sitting on the bench or up in the press box or playing all the time?

    I don’t think we can make any of those claims from where we stand today. Musil’s skills could end up being unique among the blueliners who play in OKC, or the club might have Klefbom and Teubert ahead of him in the fall. We don’t know.

    Gernat is the same. We assume that Marincin will be ahead of him, but the Oilers may trade Marincin this week at the draft–we don’t know.

    Bottom line: it’s safe to assume that both players will play pro, and that both COULD end up in Stockton. I don’t think either of those statements are in any way startling.

  22. RexLibris says:

    I’ve argued earlier that Olcyk may have more impact on the Oilers’ roster two or three years from now than Tambellini, and while Tambellini did drop the ball on the Gagner signing evidence would seem to suggest that he did so based on the advice he received from his staffers.

    While it is frustrating to see the team between a rock and a hard place on the Gagner signing, it isn’t all bad news.

    He is young, relatively injury free, save for a few flukes, more or less viewed by teams as a center and has shown a willingness to play a spirited game. Worst-case scenario the Oilers could trade him for far more than a Hemsky-return. It sucks having to lose young talent, especially down the middle, but let’s be honest, it could be a whole heck of a lot worse.

    Tambellini got the Petry deal right, and I think the Smid deal is a bonus. Dubnyk, we wait and see. But at least we aren’t looking at the post-mortem of a Gagner trade made by Tambellini, or facing imminent free-agency for the young #89.

    On the topic of the Barons’ blue – Gernat looks absolutely terrific, although I suspect that Eakins’ hairline may eventually suffer from a few of his offensive reads. If I had to send away a defensive prospect in a trade, it would be Musil ahead of either Gernat or Marincin. Musil might become a latter-day Sean Brown, whereas Gernat could become a player not unlike Janne Niinimaa.

  23. speeds says:

    RexLibris:
    Tambellini got the Petry deal right, and I think the Smid deal is a bonus. Dubnyk, we wait and see. But at least we aren’t looking at the post-mortem of a Gagner trade made by Tambellini, or facing imminent free-agency for the young #89.

    I didn’t like the Petry contract last summer (or the Gagner deal last summer) and don’t like it now because I don’t think they signed him for a long enough term. The deal is great in terms of cost over the near term, but the Oilers weren’t in a position where they were pushing against the cap so having a lower cap hit didn’t help them when they weren’t against the cap anyways. I think the Oilers would have been better off to sign him for longer last summer and smooth the cap hit over 4+ years, but as always it depends on whether that deal was available, if Petry would have signed it

  24. Bag of Pucks says:

    I have no problem whatsoever with the way that Tambellini handled Gagner’s last contract, particularly given that we’re not privy to what the player was demanding in those negotiations for a longer deal.

    Some players you are comfortable locking down, because they’ve given you enough evidence in terms of meeting expectations that you’re convinced their development path is on schedule. Some players, like Gagner, are still working to round out their game and are inconsistent. “Prove you’re worth it” is a reasonable response when an inconsistent player is seeking a large raise.

    Because Gagner was fortunate enough to have a productive season offensively, it’s oh so easy to look at that now in hindsight and say, “of course, he was going to do that.” But that ignores all the evidence to the contrary, as well as all of the pundits who agreed at the time that Sam still had much to prove. In fact, with his FO and defensive shortcomings still in evidence, it can still be argued that Sam didn’t “prove it” when it came to rounding out critical elements of his game.

    Regardless of whether the deal is done now or a year earlier, the Oilers are in a great position with this player. He was motivated to produce, he did so, and now the team has A) a very tradeable asset with contract terms that can be set by the acquiring team or B) the further evidence they reasonably needed to gather to be able to negotiate a longterm contract with full confidence.

    Pedigree alone should not guarantee you big contracts. Signing Gagner to a longterm contract a year ago would’ve based that bulk of that decision on pedigree not production.

    Btw, if we want to criticize a Tambellini contract, how about giving Eberle a longterm deal before establishing whether he could produce to the same level when playing the toughs?

  25. Lowetide says:

    Bag of Pucks: What in the hell are you talking about? Gagner has consistently posted boxcar numbers, its like clockwork. Slumps and inconsistent weeks/months are part of everyone’s resume. Gagner has been a very consistent offensive player.

  26. spoiler says:

    Gregor interviews Devil’s Director of Scouting, David Conte:

    http://www.edmontonjournal.com/touch/story.html?id=8568112

    …A wonderful read.

    I’m guessing since Cheveldayoff is hosting a pre-draft media availability with local reporters today, that MacT is doing the same tomorrow.

  27. rich says:

    Bag of Pucks says some good things, but is probably one of the last real defenders of Tambi around here.

    Kind of like Liddy defending Nixon.

  28. rickithebear says:

    fifthcartel:
    russ99,

    Isn’t Kessy going to be graduating to OKC, or maybe more likely, Stockton.

    He is a 6’3″ 215LB figting precence Forward
    who’s 19 year season translates to
    a .477PPG AHLE
    Or 62 GM 14G 15A

    Pitlicks’ 19 year old season in the AHL
    62GM 7G 16A

    What are our LW options in The A?

  29. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    spoiler:
    Gregor interviews Devil’s Director of Scouting, David Conte:

    http://www.edmontonjournal.com/touch/story.html?id=8568112

    …A wonderful read.

    I’m guessing since Cheveldayoff is hosting a pre-draft media availability with local reporters today, that MacT is doing the same tomorrow.

    I would have thought a pre-draft chat would happen after the SCF

  30. Bag of Pucks says:

    Lowetide:
    Bag of Pucks: What in the hell are you talking about? Gagner has consistently posted boxcar numbers, its like clockwork. Slumps and inconsistent weeks/months are part of everyone’s resume. Gagner has been a very consistent offensive player.

    Consistent but not top tier, and again, you’re not privy to what Samwise wanted in negotiations last year.

    There is the very real possibility that the Oilers wanted to pay him on the basis of what he his (a soft mins point producer with defensive and FO deficiencies) and Sam and agent wanted something more comparable to elite point producer money. Possibly the strategy in Sam’s camp all along was light it up for one year (cheat for the offensive chances) and cash in on the FA market. He wouldn’t be the first athlete to get this kind of counsel from his agent.

    It’s easy to criticize this deal in hindsight, but the very real possibility exists that locking up Sam long-term last year could’ve cost a premium as well. At least this year, you have the option to net more in a trade because his production this past season indicates more elite level upside.

  31. Jesse says:

    Lowetide: Bag of Pucks: What in the hell are you talking about? Gagner has consistently posted boxcar numbers, its like clockwork. Slumps and inconsistent weeks/months are part of everyone’s resume. Gagner has been a very consistent offensive player.

    I thought it was general consensus that prior to this season Gagner struggled with consistency. It was always in his year-end interviews, him talking about how he needed to move past being a streaky producer. iirc, in 11-12 after his week of glory that inlcuded the 8 pt game he was quite cold for most of the remainder of the season.

    I’m not saying this as a defense or an attack on Tambo, just as how I recall Gagner’s production being considered.

  32. justDOit says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: I would have thought a pre-draft chat would happen after the SCF

    And that could very well be Tuesday morning – and if MacT can forecast that accurately, he’s THE MAN!

  33. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Bag of Pucks: Consistent but not top tier, and again, you’re not privy to what Samwise wanted in negotiations last year.

    There is the very real possibility that the Oilers wanted to pay him on the basis of what he his (a soft mins point producer with defensive and FO deficiencies) and Sam and agent wanted something more comparable to elite point producer money. Possibly the strategy in Sam’s camp all along waslight it up for one year (cheat for the offensive chances) and cash in on the FA market. He wouldn’t be the first athlete to get this kind of counsel from his agent.

    It’s easy to criticize this deal in hindsight, but the very real possibility exists that locking up Sam long-term last year could’ve cost a premium as well. At least this year, you have the option to net more in a trade because his production this past season indicates more elite level upside.

    I think we could set the terms here a bit better.

    “There is the very real possibility that the Oilers wanted to pay him on the basis of what he his (a soft mins point producer with defensive and FO deficiencies) and Sam and agent wanted something more comparable to elite point producer money”

    Sam’s high water comparables are going to be the O’Reillys and the Coutures. That is, players of the same age group, roughly in the same CBA zone (rfa post ELC), same position, similar line responsibility, similar box cars…

    That’s not in “elite point producer” country yet. Nor is it in crazy UFA $$ territory yet.

    The word from the Org. (unless they are blowing smoke) was that they explicitly wanted a short deal. They gave Sam presumably what he wanted, the ability to breeze through his rfa years without being locked in on terms friendly to his employer. The only downside for Sam was the assumed risk of a career injury or unforeseen collapse of play. ST feared these possibilities more than Sam did and Sam won.

  34. Lowetide says:

    Bag of Pucks: Consistent but not top tier, and again, you’re not privy to what Samwise wanted in negotiations last year.

    There is the very real possibility that the Oilers wanted to pay him on the basis of what he his (a soft mins point producer with defensive and FO deficiencies) and Sam and agent wanted something more comparable to elite point producer money. Possibly the strategy in Sam’s camp all along waslight it up for one year (cheat for the offensive chances) and cash in on the FA market. He wouldn’t be the first athlete to get this kind of counsel from his agent.

    It’s easy to criticize this deal in hindsight, but the very real possibility exists that locking up Sam long-term last year could’ve cost a premium as well. At least this year, you have the option to net more in a trade because his production this past season indicates more elite level upside.

    I was critical of the deal at the time. Terrible terrible asset management. I was less upset about the Petry deal (speeds was not pleased at either at the time) but see his point more clearly one year on.

  35. justDOit says:

    Off topic, but Oilers are the front-runners to sign Ranger because of the Eakins connection.

    http://blogs.edmontonjournal.com/2013/06/23/edmonton-oilers-are-the-frontrunners-to-sign-paul-ranger/

  36. Young Oil says:

    I think Gagner is a consistent player in terms of the numbers he puts up each season, but he definitely has one or two 10-15 game slumps each season, which is more than most players. Definitely not worth the 5M he is likely asking for IMO. Not even close.

    Hopefully we can get one of Monohan or Lindholm, and the one they get will turn into the two way #2C we covet.

    I haven’t heard much talk about those two being ready to step into an NHL lineup immediately though, do you think it is realistic that they could? Not necessarily in the top 6.

  37. spoiler says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: I would have thought a pre-draft chat would happen after the SCF

    You would have thought wrong. Cheveldayoff is meeting with the media right now.

  38. Bag of Pucks says:

    Reports indicate that the Flames have lost much of the team’s archival footage as a result of the flood.

    http://deadspin.com/the-flames-vow-the-flooded-saddledome-will-be-ready-for-559158126

    Thank you God. Now future generations can be spared the sight of Lanny MacDonald’s mustache hoisting the Cup (or Steve Smith’s bank shot off Fuhr’s heel).

    By the way, given the way the team missed the playoffs and then traded Igina and JayBo for magic beans, safe to say last week’s events represent the ‘high water mark’ for this year’s Flames?

  39. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    spoiler: http://blogs.edmontonjournal.com/2013/06/23/edmonton-oilers-are-the-frontrunners-to-sign-paul-ranger/

    True. and MacT could very well meet tomorrow. Still expect most teams to nod to the SCF and Bettman and allow the media coverage to converge on the SCF barring something that absolutely needs to get out (a signing, trade, firing, etc.)

    A random press conference on the draft could easily be scheduled for Thurs or Friday. Now, if there is no news to report, he is just going to get swamped with speculative questions.

  40. Wes Mantooth-11 says:

    Romulus Apotheosis,

    Romulus Apotheosis:
    The “prove it to me” contract was unmitigated stupidity.

    Given that quote above, one wonders why these lesser lights still have a job. We’re are still waiting on word for the coachs… but the lesser managers, scouts, etc. all need to re-apply for their jobs against a competitive field.

    I have very little confidence Olczyk would retain employment under those conditions. Same for Gare and co.

    This is one of the more intelligent post I have read here for a long time, I agree with everything said here.

    Have to wonder if Howson will clean house on the pro-scouting group as well.

  41. Bag of Pucks says:

    Romulus Apotheosis

    Sam’s high water comparables are going to be the O’Reillys and the Coutures. That is, players of the same age group, roughly in the same CBA zone (rfa post ELC), same position, similar line responsibility, similar box cars…

    Both of those players are significantly stronger defensive players than Samwise, and I certainly hope that Oiler management are referencing the right advanced stats in the negotiation process to make that abundantly clear. Right now, the quotes coming out of both camps seem very friendly. Will be interesting to see how acrimonious they get over time (i.e. how willing is the new GM to play hardball?)

    I suspect the primary reason that Sam got the short term last year was the org was simply not convinced he was a ‘core’ building block and given past contract mistakes coming out of the 2006 Cup run, they’re likely very keen to avoid making similar mistakes again on longer term deals.

    This is likely why LT and I disagree on this. If you see Gagner as a core keeper, then you’re disappointed that this process creates more difficulties to keep Sam as an Oiler longterm with a more conservative cap hit. If like me, you see Gagner as an inherently flawed 2C that doesn’t fit the blueprint for a Stanley Cup winner, you’re ok with this process because it sets up perfectly to either trade Sam or move him to the wing.

  42. Bag of Pucks says:

    LT, out of curiosity, how would you feel about this scenario?

    Oil sign Gagner to a 5 year deal $5mil per deal last season (likely what it would’ve taken to buy significant UFA years), and Sam puts up ppg numbers comparable to his previous 4 seasons, or worse regresses?

    If consistency is his calling card, then that scenario was a very realistic possibility. And now, you’ve just restricted the market for potential trading partners, many of whom don’t see the deal you negotiated as a value contract and would’ve preferred the opportunity to negotiate their own with Samwise.

    The only way you can call this contract an unmitigated disaster is with the benefit of 20/20 hindsight as no one could predict the increase in Gagner’s ppg production last season with any degree of certainty. And oh yeah, you gave a long term deal to a player who’s still weak defensively and on the dot. Not exactly a recipe for building a Stanley Cup winner.

  43. godot10 says:

    The player has TO WANT to sign a long term deal. Why in high heaven would Gagner or Petry have have wanted to lock themselves in for a long time at a low salary last year? Gagner, being only 23, still views his own potential at the first line level. Petry views himself with #2 or #3 D potential.

    Gagner was NOT going to sign for any less last year than he will be willing to sign for this year.

    With Petry, it would would have to be a two-year or a six year deal last summer. He was 4 years away from UFA status. It was basically impossible for both sides to agree on a proper value for a 6 year deal.

    Tambellini should get credit for leaving MacT with incredible cap flexibility. He signed no one to no-move or no trade contracts. The only bad contracts (left) are small (Eager, Belanger, Abney) or forced on him (the extra year for Hemsky and Smyth). The Hall, Eberle, Dubnyk, and Petry contracts are all great contracts. Considering the contract and salary cap mess he inherited from Kevin Lowe, he left MacT with a lot of good contracts and basically a clean slate.

    I think the Oilers will want both Musil and Gernat in OKC next year. I think Musil’s transition to a 3rd pairing AHL D in his first year will be relatively smooth. Musil’s challenge with be at the AHL to NHL transition. Gernat’s will be more rocky, but it will ease his transition maximizing the overlap with guys he is familiar with, Marincin and Musil.

    Davidson was already playing a shutdown role by the playoffs last year, and Marincin and Fedun were the top pairing. They really only need one older AHL D vet.

  44. Lowetide says:

    There’s no way (imo) it would have cost $5M a year ago to sign Gagner to a long term deal. So I can’t answer because I don’t agree with the foundation of your question.

  45. godot10 says:

    Lowetide:
    There’s no way (imo) it would have cost $5M a year ago to sign Gagner to a long term deal. So I can’t answer because I don’t agree with the foundation of your question.

    Why would Gagner have wanted to sign a long term contract last year for less than $5 million dollars? The guy still believes in his own top end potential even if the majority of the rest-of-us do not. It is not what we would be willing to sign for. How many 22 year olds are willing to give up on the future and their own potential?

  46. Lowetide says:

    godot10: Why would Gagner have wanted to sign a long term contract last year for less than $5 million dollars?The guy still believes in his own top end potential even if the majority of the rest-of-us do not.It is not what we would be willing to sign for.How many 22 year olds are willing to give up on the future and their own potential?

    The Oilers, if their GM had a plan, would have pushed hard to sign him through free agency. The idea is to avoid the player getting all the bullets, which is where we are now.

  47. godot10 says:

    Lowetide: The Oilers, if their GM had a plan, would have pushed hard to sign him through free agency. The idea is to avoid the player getting all the bullets, which is where we are now.

    You would have had to waterboard Gagner to get him to sign long term last year for less than $5 million. The guy was 22. How many forwards have even started their NHL career?

    You are asking a 22-year old to surrender. Gagner is a ‘fighter”. He was not going to quit on himself at 22.

  48. Bag of Pucks says:

    Lowetide: The Oilers, if their GM had a plan, would have pushed hard to sign him through free agency. The idea is to avoid the player getting all the bullets, which is where we are now.

    That’s the plan IF you’re convinced the player in question will continue on a upward trajectory. If you’re on the fence with him, then you go short term and have him ‘prove it’

    Otherwise you’re handing out long-term contracts to question marks. More wishful thinking.

    We’re talking millions of dollars here LT. They have to arrive at these decisions with a reasonable degree of certainty (that until this past season Gagner had not provided them). In fact, he still hasn’t provided it for me as he still sucks on the dot and cheats for offense.

  49. spoiler says:

    Romulus Apotheosis

    A random press conference on the draft could easily be scheduled for Thurs or Friday. Now, if there is no news to report, he is just going to get swamped with speculative questions.

    The press conferences aren’t random, as the date of the draft is set… and I imagine by Friday GMs will be ensconced with their scouting staffs somewhere in the vicinity of the Garden State. Perhaps the NE teams can hold theirs later.

  50. wheatnoil says:

    As I remember it, Gagner’s contact last year was signed just hours before his arbitration hearing. My guess, and this is pure speculation, is that they were working on a long-term contract and were still far enough apart that they couldn’t close the deal. Hence, coming to terms on a one year deal to continue the contract talks later. It would be interesting to know (not that we ever will) how much the two sides were arguing over last year and how that compares to what Samwise signs now (assuming he signs). Whatever Gagner’s asking price was last year, I imagine his agent just increased it by $1mill for this year.

    As for Petry, I still think the signing was reasonable. It’s pretty low money, which gives you a lower starting point when it comes time for a raise next year. A “Jossi”-like deal might have been ideal, but I’m not sure Tambo had the creativity for that one. I think Petry was a safer long-term bet last year than Gagner, though I would’ve locked Gagner up as well. The trouble with long-term contracts has more to do with age-depreciation or the signing of an inflated contract based on a suspected fluke year due to statistical variance. That was not the case for Gagner.

    If I had to guess… I think we’re going to see a Samwise signing for $5mill and term, and Gagner will inherit the title of most polarizing player on the Oilers (with the departure of Horcoff and Hemsky).

  51. supernova says:

    Bag of Pucks: That’s the plan IF you’re convinced the player in question will continue on a upward trajectory. If you’re on the fence with him, then you go short term and have him ‘prove it’

    Otherwise you’re handing out long-term contracts to question marks. More wishful thinking.

    We’re talking millions of dollars here LT. They have to arrive at these decisions with a reasonable degree of certainty (that until this past season Gagner had not provided them). In fact, he still hasn’t provided it for me as he still sucks on the dot and cheats for offense.

    Bag of Pucks,

    The main crux of the situation is the Oilers are in a pickle, but it really would have been a good pickle if Tambo was still the GM.

    He couldn’t make a decision to save his life ( or more aptly his job)

    Almost every single one of his moves or signings came because he was forced too.

    In regards to Gagner we know what his minimum expected points are, but we do not know his upward potential. If we understand what mid 40 point producers with upside get paid we know the minimum he will get paid. What Tambo failed to do was buy down his projected high water point by signing him with less track record.

    I get you are saying we only know now that it was a bad move and that is the Benifit of 20/20, but Tambo’s failure to be proactive on a young point producer will cost us this year. That is painfully obvious but at least we are more certain of what we have. The question is now how does this asset fit with its salary and fairly well known production.

    Let’s assume gagner comes in around that $5 million mark for 6 years. That means for the oilers to get valuable production he needs to be approximately the 4 th highest scoring forward on the team. That could be very hard to do with the young starlets we have. Now if Gagner can add some qualities the others don’t have we probably have a long term Oiler but to date we have seen little improvement in the faceoffs or defensive play.

    If we would have signed Gagner to a say $4 million 5 year deal last summer. He wouldn’t have had the same pressure to have those other qualities but we would still want them.

    Gagner is a valuable asset but at a fair price, that price was cheaper last summer, and Tambo and his failure to act cost us.

  52. spoiler says:

    supernova:

    The main crux of the situation is the Oilers are in a pickle, but it really would have been a good pickle if Tambo was still the GM.

    He couldn’t make a decision to save his life ( or more aptly his job)

    Almost every single one of his moves or signings came because he was forced too.

    In regards to Gagner we know what his minimum expected points are, but we do not know his upward potential. If we understand what mid 40 point producers with upside get paid we know the minimum he will get paid. What Tambo failed to do was buy down his projected high water point by signing him with less track record.

    I get you are saying we only know now that it was a bad move and that is the Benifit of 20/20, but Tambo’s failure to be proactive on a young point producer will cost us this year. That is painfully obvious but at least we are more certain of what we have. The question is now how does this asset fit with its salary and fairly well known production.

    Let’s assume gagner comes in around that $5 million mark for 6 years. That means for the oilers to get valuable production he needs to be approximately the 4 th highest scoring forward on the team. That could be very hard to do with the young starlets we have. Now if Gagner can add some qualities the others don’t have we probably have a long term Oiler but to date we have seen little improvement in the faceoffs or defensive play.

    If we would have sign Gagner to a say $4 million 5 year deal last summer. He wouldn’t have had the same pressure to have those other qualities but we would still want them.

    Gagner is a valuable asset but at a fair price, that price was cheaper last summer, and Tambo and his failure to act cost us.

    We don’t know the price last year. We don’t even know whether he would have accepted a long term contract without significant overpay.

    We do know he felt so strongly that he was willing to go to arbitration and accept a one year deal at a possible underpay.

    The Oilers and Gagner avoided arbitration, so hopefully there is some goodwill there as well as recognition that the upcoming deal has to be structured on the basis of a 2nd line Center. And if I’m the GM I’m also pointing out how Redden and Luongo felt about their long term deals, January 2013..

  53. Bag of Pucks says:

    supernova: Bag of Pucks,

    If we would have signed Gagner to a say $4 million 5 year deal last summer. He wouldn’t have had the same pressure to have those other qualities but we would still want them.

    As I said in my first post on this today, and as Godot10 has emphasized as well, there’s no proof to support this belief that the Gagner camp was willing to sign this mythical value contract last year.

    Like Godot, I suspect what he wants this year will be very similar to what he wanted last year. The key difference is the Oilers are now armed with even more information on whether they want to commit that much of their cap for the production being offered in return.

    MacT’s comments tell me he’s giving himself a nice out with these negotiations (i.e. Sam we don’t see you as a $5 mil per C, but tell you what, commit to moving to the wing and we’ll find a way to make this contract work).

  54. spoiler says:

    spoiler: The press conferences aren’t random, as the date of the draft is set… and I imagine by Friday GMs will be ensconced with their scouting staffs somewhere in the vicinity of the Garden State.Perhaps the NE teams can hold theirs later.

    The BOG meeting is Thursday morning in NYC. That’s probably having an effect on scheduling.

  55. Ribs says:

    How much is Tanguay making down the road? *sigh*

  56. supernova says:

    Bag of Pucks,

    spoiler,

    That’s part of my ( possibly Lowetide’s) point is that it is Tambo’s job to convince him to sign long term.
    His failure to do so, will very likely cost us more.

    We do know that there is enough evidence around that supports buying UFA years is more expensive versus RFA years.

    It is very safe to assume (because that is all we can do) that Tambo’s failure to act has cost us in either dollar amount ( not unreasonable to say $500k to $750k per season) or at the very least leverage.

    All the power to Gagner he holds all the cards except if his demands are to high he is probably being shipped elsewhere.

    Tambo didn’t act unless forced. Plenty of evidence to support that.

  57. Nicholas says:

    Hypothetically speaking, if the rumors are true and Carolina would rather draft a defenceman (Nurse, Zadarov, etc) than Monahan or Lindholm, and that if they trade down, they want a top 4 D, would something like this work:

    Edm:
    7th overall
    N.Schultz

    Car:
    5th overall
    35th overall

    Perhaps other pieces get added, but is that enough?

  58. Bag of Pucks says:

    supernova:
    Bag of Pucks,

    spoiler,

    Tambo didn’t act unless forced. Plenty of evidence to support that.

    Also plenty of evidence to support the belief that handing out longterm contracts prematurely can come back to bite a team in the ass. Remember how Hemsky’s contract was always hailed as the great value deal then he spend half of it on the IR?

    It’s a nice fantasy to think that the GM should always be capable of convincing the player to sacrifice money for term, but all in honesty, why would you if you were Gagner? The team is a loser and has been the entire time he’s been here. Isn’t it reasonable to think that maybe Sam wanted to see if the team was finally headed in the right direction as well before he signed longterm?

    If I was a player, I’d at least want to be convinced the team is capable of making the playoffs (nevermind winning the Cup) before I commit the next 5 or 6 years of my life to the cause again.

    Honestly, Oiler fans can be very unrealistic in regards to the loyalty they expect these players to demonstrate.

    Hell, we overpaid Hemsky by about $3 mil with his last deal. Why is no one complaining about that?

  59. spoiler says:

    supernova: That’s part of my ( possibly Lowetide’s) point is that it is Tambo’s job to convince him to sign long term.His failure to do so, will very likely cost us more.We do know that there is enough evidence around that supports buying UFA years is more expensive versus RFA years. It is very safe to assume (because that is all we can do) that Tambo’s failure to act has cost us in either dollar amount ( not unreasonable to say $500k to $750k per season) or at the very least leverage.All the power to Gagner he holds all the cards except if his demands are to high he is probably being shipped elsewhere.Tambo didn’t act unless forced. Plenty of evidence to support that.

    There is no evidence anywhere to support your contention that you can make a player sign a contract he doesn’t want to sign.

    There is no safety in any assumption.

    Nor was there any failure to act. The failure was in acting in a ideal and probably unrealistic way — ie getting Gagner’s sig on the bottom of a long term value contract.

    This is really nothing more than a Tempest in a Teapot, whipped up to continue to support a single, simplistic narrative, when the real world doesn’t lend itself to stories in that way… despite what most of Hollywood will tell you (I’m looking at you Mr. Spielberg).

  60. Racki says:

    Bag of Pucks: Also plenty of evidence to support the belief that handing out longterm contracts prematurely can come back to bite a team in the ass. Remember how Hemsky’s contract was always hailed as the great value deal then he spend half of it on the IR?

    It’s a nice fantasy to think that the GM should always be capable of convincing the player to sacrifice money for term, but all in honesty, why would you if you were Gagner? The team is a loser and has been the entire time he’s been here. Isn’t it reasonable to think that maybe Sam wanted to see if the team was finally headed in the right direction as well before he signed longterm?

    If I was a player, I’d at least want to be convinced the team is capable of making the playoffs (nevermind winning the Cup) before I commit the next 5 or 6 years of my life to the cause again.

    Honestly, Oiler fans can be very unrealistic in regards to the loyalty they expect these players to demonstrate.

    Hell, we overpaid Hemsky by about $3 mil with his last deal. Why is no one complaining about that?

    People are definitely complaining about Hemsky’s newest deal (overpay, IMHO).

    As far as his deal before that, even if he was on IR, it was still good value. Good luck negotiating a deal on the premise that they might blow a shoulder or two in the course of the deal. It was probably the best signing we’ve had here in quite some time, and good on Lowe for that one (I’m talking about the one for $4,100,000 over 6 years, BTW).

    There is cap relief for teams players that are on LTIR anyways.

    But really, if you are expecting a player to spend “half of (the contract) on IR”, why sign them to begin with? I don’t think that deal really handcuffed us at all, and I think over the course of that deal it was still a pretty solid contract. And this is from a guy who has no interest in seeing Hemsky here anymore.

  61. FastOil says:

    godot10: You would have had to waterboard Gagner to get him to sign long term last year for less than $5 million.The guy was 22.How many forwards have even started their NHL career?

    You are asking a 22-year old to surrender.Gagner is a ‘fighter”.He was not going to quit on himself at 22.

    He did go from a .62 PPG career average to .79. That will cost money. I think he wants to be in Edmonton, and would have signed a reasonable offer last time. He is harder to project now IMO than before because he had a career year with this second weakest 5v5 production. Who knows why, if he’ll rebound given more workload, but it’s not a good thing.

    He is still a mystery and now a more expensive one.

  62. Gerta Rauss says:

    ✔ @EdmontonOilers

    #Oilers GM Craig MacTavish to host pre #NHLDraft media availability tomorrow at 1pm MST… we’ll be live tweeting, of course!
    11 Retweets 4 favorites

    per Oilers twitter 30 min ago

  63. Lowetide says:

    We’ve reached a point where the discussion is winding down and I don’t think we’re going to be able to bridge the gap. Perhaps we should agree to disagree.

  64. Kris11 says:

    LT,

    I disagree with your claim that we should agree to disagree.

    I think we should disagree to agree.

  65. Jordan says:

    Nicholas,

    No, it’s not. No where close.

    If Carolina proposed that deal, I’d counter with

    To Carolina:
    J. Schultz + Horcoff (Full Salary)

    To Edmonton:
    #5 (2013) & Car 1st (2014)

    Justin Schultz is already an NHL d man who moves the puck as quickly and smoothly as Angelina Jolie attracts men’s attention. He’s cheap, he’s young, and he’s bonafide.

    You don’t move him as a toss-in to move up two bloody spots and get a 2nd. The trade you suggest is a move I would expect Millbury to pass on – And he’s bat shit crazy!

  66. "Steve Smith" says:

    Jordan,

    I do not think that “N.” means what you think it means.

  67. Jordan says:

    “Steve Smith”,

    So… tempted… to…. delete….

    Bah – better to make the rest of you laugh at my lack of literacy. At least then there can be some joy in my foibles.

    Edit: With that said, I think the orginal deal proposed by the OP has value to both sides. I think a B prospect might need to be added on one side, depending on how they bargain, but it could work.

  68. justDOit says:

    Jordan,

    I hesitate to mention A. Jolie’s recent medical procedures…

  69. justDOit says:

    “Steve Smith”:
    Jordan,

    I do not think that “N.” means what you think it means.

    It’s not New Schultz?

  70. Lowetide says:

    Poor Nicholas. He’s going to panic when he sees that post and think he’s made a horrible mistake. I should change his original post to a J.

  71. Jordan says:

    Lowetide:
    Poor Nicholas. He’s going to panic when he sees that post and think he’s made a horrible mistake. I should change his original post to a J.

    After you make that change though, the rest of the thread won’t make sense. Would you please delete these posts so it’s clean?

    I’m not that vain ….Really…

  72. Lowetide says:

    I can’t do it, it’s too mean.

  73. justDOit says:

    LT: That’s a great shootout goal by Gagner, but it provides little perspective on the player other than his puck skills – and those alone do not earn big contract$. Maybe you could post some vids of him winning d-zone faceoffs?

  74. Jordan says:

    Oh, fine. Very well then – it’s fine to tease me about going and editing someone else’s post so that it can start a flame war on your blog and hide the fact that I miss-read it and mistakenly responded to a fictitious post…

    …But it’s mean to actually go and change said post and thereby dash my hopes of hiding my secret shame of not reading english well…

    You’re a sick man, LT. Now I know how the other guy feels when you’re doing your RE series… ;)

  75. Lowetide says:

    Jordan: lol

    Justdoit: Sorry can’t, but I’ll look forward to seeing it on your blog.

  76. "Steve Smith" says:

    Jordan,

    If it helps, I totally agree with your assessment of the merits of giving up Justin Schultz to move up two spots.

  77. Nicholas says:

    Lowetide,

    ^ this.

    I had to go back to make sure I hadn’t lost my mind :)

  78. prairieschooner says:

    It was mentioned earlier that there would be interest in a book written by Tambi
    Unfortunately it won’t be available until 2030
    Tambi is evaluating publishers

  79. lawrenharris says:

    Bag of Pucks:
    Reports indicate that the Flames have lost much of the team’s archival footage as a result of the flood.

    http://deadspin.com/the-flames-vow-the-flooded-saddledome-will-be-ready-for-559158126

    Thank you God. Now future generations can be spared the sight of Lanny MacDonald’s mustache hoisting the Cup (or Steve Smith’s bank shot off Fuhr’s heel).

    By the way, given the way the team missed the playoffs and then traded Igina and JayBo for magic beans, safe to say last week’s events represent the ‘high water mark’ for this year’s Flames?

    Getting tired of lame shots at the Flames while Calgary is under water.

  80. supernova says:

    Bag of Pucks: Also plenty of evidence to support the belief that handing out longterm contracts prematurely can come back to bite a team in the ass. Remember how Hemsky’s contract was always hailed as the great value deal then he spend half of it on the IR?

    It’s a nice fantasy to think that the GM should always be capable of convincing the player to sacrifice money for term, but all in honesty, why would you if you were Gagner? The team is a loser and has been the entire time he’s been here. Isn’t it reasonable to think that maybe Sam wanted to see if the team was finally headed in the right direction as well before he signed longterm?

    If I was a player, I’d at least want to be convinced the team is capable of making the playoffs (nevermind winning the Cup) before I commit the next 5 or 6 years of my life to the cause again.

    Honestly, Oiler fans can be very unrealistic in regards to the loyalty they expect these players to demonstrate.

    Hell, we overpaid Hemsky by about $3 mil with his last deal. Why is no one complaining about that?

    Bag of Pucks,

    I would sign that Hemsky contract again and again. He was well worth the risk and he maintained the value of the contract. You can’t predict injuries and at the time of the 6 year deal had relatively little injury history. The current contract is different but it also adds strength to the cost for UFA years. He also had a history of injuries by the time they has signed this one.

    I didn’t demand Loyalty, quite the contrary I said it was Tambellini’s job to sell Gagner on signing in Edmonton long term and changing the culture. Whether tambellini did that or needed to see more is one of the reasons he isn’t the GM any more.

    The latest Hemsky deal has been complained about plenty, so it is fair enough to point out Tambo and his lack of action has put us in a situation that a player has far more leverage than the team. Like I said all in a earlier post all the power to Gagner, but Tambo you seem like a gentleman but I am glad you are no longer the decision maker of the Oilers.

  81. supernova says:

    spoiler: There is no evidence anywhere to support your contention that you can make a player sign a contract he doesn’t want to sign.

    There is no safety in any assumption.

    Nor was there any failure to act.The failure was in acting in a ideal and probably unrealistic way — ie getting Gagner’s sig on the bottom of a long term value contract.

    This is really nothing more than a Tempest in a Teapot, whipped up to continue to support a single, simplistic narrative, when the real world doesn’t lend itself to stories in that way… despite what most of Hollywood will tell you (I’m looking at you Mr. Spielberg).

    spoiler,

    I didn’t say make anywhere, I said convince

    We convinced Schultz to come
    We convinced Smid to resign
    We convinced Hall to resign
    We convinced Eberle to resign

    gagner wasn’t convinced to resign long term, it is a error that we know now.

    As to your Tempest in a Teapot analogy

    I disagree, every decision or non decision is an evaluation of a GM’s job.

    I will ( and do) give Tambo credit for signing Belanger, it looked like the right fit for good value but has worked our poorly. Tambo made a decision but it didn’t work out, most of this is on Belanger but Tambo failed by not re-addressing this issue. He then addressed it to late and sent a 4th away for a dozen games of Smithson.

    We do not yet know the consequences of his failure to sign Gagner long term last summer, but we do know he is no longer the decision maker, and we hope MacT will guide us through the Gagner situation without making it worse.

Leave a Reply

Want to join the discussion?
Feel free to contribute!

Leave a Reply

© Copyright - Lowetide.ca