THE NEW JERSEY HAIR-SPLITTING CONVENTION

Frankly, I have no idea of what we can expect today. Simply put, the events of yesterday suggest that Craig MacTavish is going to upgrade goaltending first, and then look to defense and center. This goaltending position was mentioned in ‘the list’ but most Oiler fans felt it was a secondary task for this summer.

THE LIST (in apparent order)

  1. Starting goalie (Cory Schneider)
  2. Top 4 defender (Braydon Coburn)
  3. Sign Sam Gagner to a multi-year deal that has begins with a number in the 4′s.
  4. Find a 2line R to play with Paajarvi (Clutterbuck)
  5. Find a 2line L who can complement Gagner-Yakupov with puck retrieval, blocking out the sun, etc
  6. Find a 3line C to play with Paajarvi
  7. Find a 4line C to play with Smyth/Brown
  8. Get Paajarvi signed and then find a role that suits him (suspect it’s 3line).
  9. Deal Hemsky for immediate help (even if its a checker).
  10. Deal Horcoff or slot him into the 3line job for which he is actually ideal.
  11. Decide on Lander/Belanger or other for 13F (and 14F if they go with 7D).
  12. Better blue depth (MacT has done this with Belov, plus Klefbom/Fedun/Marincin)
  13. AHL #1/NHL #3 goalie
  14. Sign Paul Ranger

Cory Schneider will come at a dear price today, and he’s two years from unrestricted free agency. That means Craig MacTavish must be putting exceptional value on these next two years, and that  of course means Coburn and Clutterbuck (should they become Oilers) will no doubt be joined by centermen and wingmen and possibly defensemen. I think we can assume Devan Dubnyk will be in the out basket in due course and maybe that happens today. Other names who could be with other teams today are Shawn Horcoff, Ales Hemsky, Nick Schultz and Magnus Paajarvi. I don’t believe Sam Gagner is going to be dealt based on all we’ve heard, but I’ll include him here just in case.

Craig MacTavish said 8 or 9 roster spots could change. He was clear on Dubnyk, he was clear on Hemsky and Horcoff and Khabibulin and Peckham and Belanger and and and. Why then is it such a surprise to see Corey Schneider as the key piece to the puzzle?

  • Willis: “Over the last three seasons, Dubnyk has been a 0.917 save percentage goalie to Schneider’s 0.931. Even assuming Schneider is really a 0.925 true-talent goalie (a cautious approach), for a goalie playing 60 games (roughly 1,600 shots), that’s a difference of 13 goals per year – one every five games. It’s a big difference.”

I don’t like the deal. I think it lacks clarity based on the holes in the roster and it improves a position that is league average to maybe a little better, while the defense remains a mess and the center position terribly weak with Horcoff and Belanger about to make it weaker. I vow to wait until we see the full picture, but as it stands this trade (depending on assets sent) looks like a considerable overpay. Two seasons of a very good NHL goalie who lacks a long resume? The window is suddenly and unnecessarily shortened to two seasons.

Ladies and gents, nothing rhymes.

NAKED LUNCH????

MISH MASH

Based on the rumors, picks #7, #37 and #56 may be off the board. If that happens, the Oilers would pick #128, #158 and #188. I’ll cover the draft stories all day today, but the afternoon session may be more about trades than picks. Edmonton’s lowest number of draft picks in one year is five (2006) when they drafted #45, #75, #133, #140 and #170. It’s kind of incredible that they found Jeff Petry and Theo Peckham that year.

 THE OILERS SELECT….

colbert1

There’s a chance the Edmonton Oilers first selection today is #128 (based on reports), but here’s how I see them picking should they end up using the 6 available slots on the board.

  • #7 overall: L Valeri Nichushkin. If Monahan is unavailable, I think the Oilers go with the big powerforward. He’ll be the most NHL ready and Edmonton has a spot available for him on the left side. If he doesn’t make the big club (at 2 or 4L) then they can send him to OKC or back to the KHL.

  • #37 overall: D Dillon Heatherington. Big, mobile defenseman who can make plays with the puck and close a gap in a heartbeat. This is exactly the player type on defense MacT has talked about, and he could be a future shutdown defender/pk stalwart.
  • #56 overall: C Greg Chase. Gritty player with skill, he’s been moving up draft boards and is the last C in the top 60 who combines rugged play with any kind of skill.
  • #128 overall: L Myles Bell. Moved from D to L and had tremendous success. May go much higher, but if available could be a wise choice. Bell turns 20 in August.
  • #158 overall: C Taylor Cammarata. Small and extremely skilled centerman from the USHL.
  • #188 overall: D Mattias Norstebo. Interesting puck moving defenseman from Norway who plays in Sweden for Brynas (Jr).

The Oilers prospect depth chart would look pretty damn impressive with this group added to the current top 30 but we should  be prepared for a day that begins in round 5.

UP NEXT: I’ll cover the entire draft today, but if there are boring parts may begin a series on available free agents. I’ll begin with Vincent L or the man Stalberg, haven’t quite decided. Also, the sheer number of ‘sail on’ posts that the day could inspire is incredible: Gagner, Horcoff, Hemsky, Paajarvi–MacT is the Godfather and last year’s roster is Moe Green.

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381 Responses to "THE NEW JERSEY HAIR-SPLITTING CONVENTION"

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  1. GordM says:

    Can’t decide what I would dislike more:

    -Dearly overpaying for pieces I just don’t understand (i.e. Schneider)
    -Coming back to Edmonton with virtually the same roster and a bunch of Kevin Lowe style stories about just how close they were to making some big trades.

    At least all the chatter isn’t just around us it’s around the whole darn league. I hated the lockout more than a lot of things in life but this reduced cap and cheering for a team without a pinch does have me singing a slightly different tune.

  2. Martin Lundén (dohfOs) says:

    This could turn out to be one long day.. Schneider.. please, no.

    God knows I love MPS and believe in his qualities (even though I’ve said since his draft that he’s a 3rd liner) but I can live with trading him for Coburn. But shipping the 1st round pick at this stage for a goalie who’s 27, less NHL-games played than our current goalie, yet to be a proven bonafide starter who earns 4 mil and got only 2 years ’til he becomes a UFA is just.. dumb.

  3. gangplank says:

    No schnieder plz

  4. Professor Q says:

    Draft day. Always exciting. I don’t think we have to worry about Schneider or any of those other horrible trades people were worrying about yesterday so much. MacT is smarter than a bunch of MSM trade mongers (I hope…)

  5. Ca$h-Money! says:

    You’re making it sound as if Schneider is a done deal. All I’ve heard is that there is interest. Something I don’t know or speculation?

    Also, didn’t MacT suggest he placed extreme value on the #7 pick several times? I could see him moving the second rounders, but I’d be surprised if we don’t have a pick in the top 10.

  6. Wes Mantooth-11 says:

    I’ll take Schneider , but not at the cost of the 7th overall pick, I might offer next years first, but this years first is to dear a price to pay.

    I could see the Clutterbuck trade.( especially if the price is still the same)

    I can see Paajarvi moving.

    I see Colburn trade , I also have a feeling Smid is being shopped, no real evidence for this other then just a gut feeling.

    I don’t really see the Oilers being involved in all the Seguin or Schneider talk.

    The day we’ve been waiting for!

    I’m going with Nichushkin.but only if Monahan is off the board.

  7. BrazilianOil says:

    I’m ok trading the #7, but i’m wondering if is not possible to have a really good D in exchange. Seems Coburn will be an Oiler for a 2nd, so taking another D give us a very good improvment:

    1D Coburn
    Smid- Petry
    Schultz- Belov

    This give you N. Schultz and Hemsky as assets to trade for 2L and 3C.

    Complete your list ( 3R, 4C , 2G) via Free agency and you have a good rooster to hit the play offs.

  8. Woodguy says:

    My wife and I keep a Google calendar so we can keep track of our schedule.

    For months I’ve had this entire day marked as “NHL Draft – Please leave me alone”

    Given the chatter yesterday about trades and the quality in the top 2-3 rounds of the draft, I think many, many articles will be written in the future about how this day changed the fortunes of a franchise….good or bad.

    I understand if MacT sees his window to win as having started yesterday.

    7 years of Taylor Hall seem like a long time, but it seems like it was just yesterday that he was drafted, and that was 3 years ago.

    This time pressure and lack of experience may cause him to do some foolish things.

    I think Schneider is an upgrade on DD, but the price is very dear unless the return for DD changes that dynamic significantly.

    I’ll hold getting in a bother about trades that haven’t happened though.

    I think I have time to have breakfast, mow the lawn and stock up on cold Stella’s before this gong show starts.

    I think today will be a fun day to be a NHL fan, I hope it’s a fun day to be an Oiler fan as well.

    Go MacT!!

    *clap,clap*

  9. Professor Q says:

    Woodguy,

    Should make for a nice Canada Day celebration pairing as well!

  10. jake70 says:

    Well you locals out there are up early (admit it you never went to bed…lol).

    Giving up a 7th overall in what is considered a deep draft, signals the rebuild is over. How badly does MacT want to win?

    “”Give way to anxiety or unease; allow one’s mind to dwell on difficulty or troubles”” – definition of worry :)

  11. Professor Q says:

    Woodguy,

    Not an overly huge fan of Stella, but do love Hoegaarden.

    (My “Edit” wouldn’t work on the previous post, my bad).

  12. Henry says:

    Didn’t expect this thread to be up so early so I’ll repeat from the end of the last thread – sorry.

    Philly needs a good goalie badly and has the 11th. Vancouver’s interest in moving up from 24 could be satisfied there. Edmonton does not need a #1 (I think) but has the 7th. I suspect that Edmonton’s interest in Schneider is a ploy to get Coutourier from Holmgren. It’s the only thing that makes sense.

    I don’t like it at all though. Giving Lindholm to Vancouver and relief from their goalie problem and cap problem is not good management of the rivalry.

  13. 8p0intgame says:

    TSN reported that Montreal wants to move up in the draft.

    Does Gagner + 7 OV + 37 OV + 56 OV get you Alex Galchenyuk and Max Pacioretty from Montreal?

    RNH-Hall-Eberle
    Galchenyuk-Pacioretty-Yakupov

  14. Lowetide says:

    The Dubnyk thing is interersting. I don’t know that they’d flip it so soon, but then again what the hell are you waiting for? Hmm. Philly is an interesting option. As always.

  15. Henry says:

    Unless I read capgeek wrong, Vancouver is deep in a world of shit. They have to buy out two of Luongo, Booth and Ballard in order to sign 8 guys with the savings. That will only be $8-9M. Giving them a high first in their situation is just stupid. They need to sell good players cheaper to live with their cap problem. They have 10 NTC contracts. Screw them.

  16. Zack says:

    Happy Draft day everyone!

    Moving 7th Overall for an pseudo-”unproven” goalie worries me. I’d much rather see a quality young center or d-man come our way. Goalies are always a crapshoot and moving what could be Nichuskin, Lindholm or to a lesser extent, Monahan for Schnieder, I think we lose in that deal, big time (potentially).

    If we can draft 7th OV or move up to select a quality centre and somehow land Coburn I would call it a very good day. I have a feeling though that deals may happen for the Oilers that we will have no idea about until it actually happens. This could also be the last day for Hemsky and or Horcoff as an Oiler.

  17. eidy says:

    If the deals go down as they have been advertised, this will not be the day that I was hoping for. This feels like the final days of Kevin Lowe and the whale hunt.

    If this was anyone else but MacT the tone of this site would be very different. It reminds me of watching Glencross (MPS) wilt on the vine while Lowe et al were gone fishing.

    With the deals strongly rumoured there are better assets leaving then coming today and that will be on the new GM. if this window is unnecessarily shortened after the pain of watching this team for the last 5 years, then it will have to be noted that another GM would have done better.

    This hopefully s much to do about nothing, but as Dustin Niellson tweeted last night. “Bold moves,not stupid ones”

  18. Woodguy says:

    The stats community has a bit of consensus on how to rate goalies.

    The stat that generally gives the best idea of quality of the goalie is 5v5 SV%.

    Its subject to much less fluctuations in performance than 4v5 SV% (and consequently overall SV%)

    Its not perfect, but its the best we/they can figure so far.

    WIth that in mind, here are the top 30 5v5 SV% for the last 3 years in the NHL.

    In order to qualify a goalie must have played at least 30% of their teams’ games. This past year that means 14 games was the cut off, in other years 25 games.

    12/13
    Craig Anderson 0.943
    Sergei Bobrovsky 0.941
    Tomas Vokoun 0.940
    Tuukka Rask 0.938
    Henrik Lundqvist 0.937
    Jimmy Howard 0.937
    Jonas Hiller 0.936
    Corey Crawford 0.934
    Jonathan Bernier 0.932
    Braden Holtby 0.931
    Cory Schneider 0.931
    Antti Niemi 0.930
    Ryan Miller 0.928
    Pekka Rinne 0.927
    Marc-Andre Fleury 0.927
    Ben Bishop 0.927
    Ray Emery 0.927
    Viktor Fasth 0.926
    Jason LaBarbera 0.925
    James Reimer 0.924
    Kari Lehtonen 0.924
    Mike Smith 0.924
    Devan Dubnyk 0.922
    Carey Price 0.920
    Dan Ellis 0.920
    Roberto Luongo 0.920
    Ben Scrivens 0.920
    Martin Brodeur 0.919
    Brian Elliott 0.917
    Cam Ward 0.917

    11/12

    Brian Elliott 0.945
    Jaroslav Halak 0.938
    Mike Smith 0.936
    Jonathan Quick 0.933
    Henrik Lundqvist 0.933
    Niklas Backstrom 0.931
    Cory Schneider 0.931
    Roberto Luongo 0.929
    Jimmy Howard 0.929
    Tukka Rask 0.929
    Pekka Rinne 0.928
    Miikka Kiprusoff 0.928
    Jose Theodore 0.928
    Tim Thomas 0.927
    Devan Dubnyk 0.927
    Tomas Vokoun 0.927
    Jhonas Enroth 0.927
    Antti Niemi 0.926
    Kari Lehtonen 0.926
    Jean-Sebastien Giguere 0.924
    Semyon Varlamov 0.923
    Josh Harding 0.923
    Curtis Sanford 0.923
    Ryan Miller 0.922
    Scott Clemmensen 0.922
    Ilya Bryzgalov 0.921
    Craig Anderson 0.920
    Cam Ward 0.919
    Johan Hedberg 0.919
    Carey Price 0.918
    James Reimer 0.918

    10/11

    Tim Thomas 0.947
    Roberto Luongo 0.934
    James Reimer 0.933
    Cory Schneider 0.933
    Pekka Rinne 0.932
    Carey Price 0.931
    Ilya Bryzgalov 0.931
    Antti Niemi 0.931
    Jonas Hiller 0.931
    Henrik Lundqvist 0.930
    Semyon Varlamov 0.930
    Kari Lehtonen 0.928
    Ondrej Pavelec 0.928
    Niklas Backstrom 0.928
    Cam Ward 0.927
    Marc-Andre Fleury 0.925
    Brian Boucher 0.925
    Tuukka Rask 0.925
    Ryan Miller 0.924
    Dwayne Roloson 0.924
    Corey Crawford 0.924
    Sergei Bobrovsky 0.923
    Michal Neuvirth 0.922
    Jonathan Quick 0.921
    Devan Dubnyk 0.921
    Johan Hedberg 0.920
    Jonathan Bernier 0.920
    Tomas Vokoun 0.919
    Scott Clemmensen 0.918
    Craig Anderson 0.917

    These players showed up in the top 15 every year in the last 3 years:

    Tukka Rask
    Hendrik Lundqvist
    Corey Schneider
    Pekka Rinne

    Hmmmmmmm.

  19. Woodguy says:

    Professor Q:
    Woodguy,

    Not an overly huge fan of Stella, but do love Hoegaarden.

    (My “Edit” wouldn’t work on the previous post, my bad).

    I’m a cold lager guy, and I think Stella is near the pinnacle of cold mass produced lagers.

  20. Lowetide says:

    My life with beer involves intense relationships of several years followed by dropping that relationship and moving in with the next one. It isn’t a pretty picture, but it’s me. Stella is my current girl. We’re mad for each other.

  21. Zack says:

    Woodguy,

    I know you said you didn’t really want to get into it but what are your thoughts, in terms of value, for moving the 7th Overall for a goalie like Schnieder, Woodguy? Would you rather see another trade go down or retain the pick?

  22. eidy says:

    For the last few years I have been fearful every time a trade was brought up when tambellini was in charge. Mostly this was unnecessary because it was rumours and he was Dithers. I was hoping that with the new GM I would feel like San Jose fans when there GM makes a trade, confident, and a bit bad for the other guy.

    Come on MacT, give me a reason to believe.

  23. Tcharger says:

    If you get Nichuskin at 7 it will be the steal of the draft.. Slight correction tho, he is only able to play in the aNHL(not you farm team) or the KHL.. due to his KHL contract

  24. Professor Q says:

    Tcharger,

    I wonder if he could come in with a similar impact as Yakupov?

  25. Woodguy says:

    Zack:
    Woodguy,

    I know you said you didn’t really want to get into it but what are your thoughts, in terms of value, for moving the 7th Overall for a goalie like Schnieder, Woodguy? Would you rather see another trade go down or retain the pick?

    As good as Schneider is, he is only under contract for 2 more years.

    The 7th projects to be a good player and you own their soul for a minimum of 7 NHL years.

    That trade off is not value.

    If Schneider had 4 years I’d be all over it.

    I had no idea he rated as 1 of 4 goalies to post a top 15 5v5 SV% until I looked at it to see where he ranked.

    I think a truly elite goalie is worth getting (like the other 3 on that list), but his contract situation is gross.

    He will get PAID in his next contract and given that he’ll be 29 he’ll probably want to hit a home run so there is a great possibility that he will go to free agency unless whatever team owns his rights backs the Brinks truck up and he likes where he’s playing.

    Too many variables affecting the probability that he’s an Oiler for more than 2 years.

    Huge gamble and MacT would be taking the worst of it.

  26. Professor Q says:

    Woodguy,

    Carlsberg ;). However, the family is Danish so perhaps I am biased…

  27. Wes Mantooth-11 says:

    Does anyone know if Yakupov is at the draft? tradition has the last 1st welcome the new 1st.

    Just wondering, he would make a great interprator for Nichuskin.

    i have to go with Alexander Keiths but I do enjoy Big Rocks Honey Brown.

  28. 8p0intgame says:

    Sign Gagner for 4.5 x 5.
    Sign Paajarvi for 1.525 x 4.
    Trade Hemsky (retain 50% of his salary) to Ottawa for Zack Smith.
    Trade Pitlick + 56 OV to Minnesota for Cal Clutterback.
    Trade 7 OV + 37 OV + Horcoff (retain 50% of his salary) to Montreal for Galchenyuk and 25 OV.
    Sign Clarke MacArthur for 4 x 3.

    RNH-Hall-Eberle
    Gagner-MacArthur-Yakupov
    Galchenyuk-Paajarvi-Clutterback
    Smith-Smyth-Brown

  29. sliderule says:

    I hope MacT isn’t taking our GM position from mr Dithers to the mad doctor.

    Please MacT whatever you do no trade with Canucks or flames.

    Most oiler fans couldn’t stand the pain and constant enduring humiliation if they don’t work out for us.

  30. admiralmark says:

    So you just had to get up first thing this morning and perpetuate the Schneider deal right off the hop hey?! I hate to say it but all the good will and intelligence talk MacT has been giving goes out the window if he throws #7 , a 2nd rounder or a high end prospect for this player. That’s why after a nice long restful night I am choosing to believe this as nothing but rumour creation by the gillis camp to generate the best deal possible… MacT is too intelligent to do something this stupid.

  31. bookje says:

    Wes Mantooth-11:
    Does anyone know if Yakupov is at the draft? tradition has the last 1st welcome the new 1st.

    I thought that was just an Oiler tradition…

  32. Tcharger says:

    Professor Q,

    I honestly think he will be the steal of the round… I am surprised that there isn’t more talk of him in the top 4

  33. Ducey says:

    DD is a UFA next year. So there’s that.

    I bet MacT is trying to get Schneider and then will flip DD to Philly for Coburn. Unfortunately he probably loses his first three picks and MPS in the process. He only has a few hours to pull it all together.

    Doesn’t it seem reasonable to assume the Oilers not only give up more shots but better quality shots given their struggles? I worry that in reality Schneider and DD would be about the same in terms of save % if they had the same D in front of them. I expect that MacT sees that stinker that DD tends to give up every second game and has decided that he can’t trust him.

    I am not a big fan of the Russian. He seems like that he actually fits the Don Cherry stereotype. Great skills, questionable attitude. He doesn’t seem like a good fit for the new coach who will want him to play some D and provide effort every shift.

    I look forward to the NHL draft like I used to approach Christmas as a kid. Having gotten up this morning and surveyed all the presents under the tree, I feel like all I have to look forward to is a new pair of black dress socks.

  34. RMGS says:

    It may be a bit harder to find, but if you’re going with a pilsner lager, Pilsner Urquell’s a few steps above Stella. Plus, what better beverage to send off the Pardubice Prince than with his refreshing national brew?

  35. pboy says:

    Woodguy: As good as Schneider is, he is only under contract for 2 more years.

    The 7th projects to be a good player and you own their soul for a minimum of 7 NHL years.

    That trade off is not value.

    If Schneider had 4 years I’d be all over it.

    I had no idea he rated as 1 of 4 goalies to post a top 15 5v5 SV% until I looked at it to see where he ranked.

    I think a truly elite goalie is worth getting (like the other 3 on that list), but his contract situation is gross.

    He will get PAID in his next contract and given that he’ll be 29 he’ll probably want to hit a home run so there is a great possibility that he will go to free agency unless whatever team owns his rights backs the Brinks truck up and he likes where he’s playing.

    Too many variables affecting the probability that he’s an Oiler for more than 2 years.

    Huge gamble and MacT would be taking the worst of it.

    Good post, I agree completely.

    Everyone can relax about the Dys trade, it isn’t going to happen. In fact, everything is going to turn out Copper and Blue today. It was my morning to get up with the boy (3 & a half) and he slept in till 6:45!!!!! That’s unprecedented and can only foreshadow godd things today. The wife has let me block off noon-5, the beer fridge is relatively full and we have an intelligent man running our team for the first time in a long time.

    Cutterbuck and Gilbert.
    Nichushkin
    And plenty of rumours

    Enjoy Folks!

  36. Woodguy says:

    RMGS:
    It may be a bit harder to find, but if you’re going with a pilsner lager, Pilsner Urquell’s a few steps above Stella. Plus, what better beverage to send off the Pardubice Prince than with his refreshing national brew?

    Urquell is a great pilsner, many stores in Edmonton have it in the 500ml cans.

    Professor Q,

    Carlsberg is good, but doesn’t finish nearly as clean as Stella.

    Cold Stella in a can seems to finish with near no after taste.

  37. Wes Mantooth-11 says:

    bookje

    bookje: I thought that was just an Oiler tradition…

    I should have been clear, yes I do mean the Oilers tradition of 1st welcoming the 1st.

  38. Lucinius says:

    The idea of Nichuskin as a pairing with Yakupov is one that fascinates me. The only problem, of course, would be their center. It’d likely have to be Gagner, but with MacT’s comments about Gagner on the Right Wing it makes you wonder if the Oilers will screw that up as well (leave Yak at RW, please).

    The Oilers are so deep at RW right now its crazy (Eberle, Yakupov, Hemsky and possibly Gagner!) And if the Oilers take Nichuskin, our LW starts to look similar with Hall, Nichuskin, Paajarvi. We don’t need Gagner as a winger. We need Gagner as a center.. which is the position he’s not overly suited as, especially defensively.

    Would be curious about swapping Gagner to LW and Paajarvi to center. But, honestly? I feel like giving up on trying to guess that our whacky, semi-incompetent team attempts. At least.. until this day is over. So much could change today.

    And god forbid during free agency.

    Hope Edmonton’s cardiac surgeons are ready for the possible rush of work.

  39. pboy says:

    The other factor in all of this Vancouver mess is Loungo. He’s been very clear about the fact that he wants out and their fan base has made their opinions known as well. Gillis isn’t going to create a situation in which he goes from 2 outstanding goaltenders to a question mark.

  40. Wes Mantooth-11 says:

    pboy,

    pboy: Good post, I agree completely.Everyone can relax about the Dys trade, it isn’t going to happen. In fact, everything is going to turn out Copper and Blue today. It was my morning to get up with the boy (3 & a half) and he slept in till 6:45!!!!! That’s unprecedented and can only foreshadow godd things today. The wife has let me block off noon-5, the beer fridge is relatively full and we have an intelligent man running our team for the first time in a long time. Cutterbuck and Gilbert.NichushkinAnd plenty of rumoursEnjoy Folks!

    Please ,I beg this to be true!

    Not to much just enough.

  41. Professor Q says:

    Wes Mantooth-11,

    I wonder if Katz’ kid will still be up on stage?

  42. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Fell asleep last night with a revelation in mind.

    MacT is repeating himself (if all is true).

    His opening move as GM is to say that the coach and goalie weren’t the reason for failure. He gives them both a pass with a dangling question mark.

    He goes looking for an associate coach and discovers he doesn’t have to support the guy he dangled a question mark over. He dumps RK and signs Eakins.

    He goes looking for a credible back up, misses on a few pieces (the euros and apparently Bernier) and discovers he doesn’t have to support the guy he dangled a question mark over.

    In the end, we (for the most part) resolved ourselves to the RK firing. It wasn’t his fault per se, but the warts were there and we understood the philosophy of “upgrading at all positions” is good.

    If we upgrade our Goalie, it will indeed be confusing. It wasn’t his fault. There are some warts, but not a lot. In the end, that upgrade will probably have some value.

    The real problem here is twofold: we can all see much bigger holes in the road. The priorities are strange. But maybe this is simply a case of opportunity knocking. Also, the value swapped in terms of roster pieces isn’t congruent. Two years of Schneids isn’t worth it and we lose having a gem on an ELC.

    Not to mention this all simply adds a piece to the to do list. Now instead of finding a 2 and 3 G; we need to get a 1; trade a 1; AND sign a 2 and 3 G.

    crazy times.

  43. eidy says:

    Professor Q,

    For their first pick in round 5, doubt it

  44. fuzzy muppet says:

    Today is my favorite day of the hockey Calender.

    I’m a bit upset as, not only do I work all day (i asked for it off!) hey just called me in two hours early….

    So a recorded draft that I’ll watch tonight is the way it’s playing out. NO internet or texting all day…This is gonna be a long 12 hours…..

    I hope I get done and find out the Oilers have (Lindholm, Nickuskin, MOnahan), Brooks Laich, Coburn and another piece….

    Good luck!

  45. Lowetide says:

    That sucks, Fuzzy. well, it’ll roll out for you just as it will for me, but delayed and you’ll have come through in the clutch too!

  46. Professor Q says:

    fuzzy muppet,

    If it makes your work day any better, I used to love Fraggle Rock!

  47. Gret99zky says:

    Why MacT would even consider bailing out Gillis, or any other GM in the league, with their cap woes without clear & considerable advantage to the Edmonton Oilers Hockey Club is totally beyond me.

    I will wait and see if this is just MSM bullshit but I’m going to the bulk barn early to get some tar and feathers just in case.

  48. admiralmark says:

    I’ve ben pondering this am… Would the few of us that are NOT liking the Schneider trade for #7 be more comfortable with it if we saw Vancouvers #24 pick coming back?
    What if it what something like #7, #56, and any “one of (Marincin/Gernat/Musil) for Schneider and #24? I think im just trying to make myself feel better about this before it actually happens.

  49. Southern Oil says:

    This day is shaping up quite well. Wife & the kids are heading out of town earlier to Hilton Head for the 4th. I will join them later in the week. The house will be nice and quite right around 3pm. I am suppose to paint my son’s room but I am not picking up a brush until the end of the first round.

    Then I realized, this thing is probably not being streamed on line is it? I’ll have to try to find a radio feed I guess. Sometimes, I can’t figure the NHL out.

  50. Rondo says:

    Bob Stauffer ‏@Bob_Stauffer 54s
    As for Schneider “some” teams are unwilling to move a top 15 overall pick for him

  51. hockeyguy10 says:

    Southern Oil,

    Bob McKenzie @TSNBobMcKenzie 44m
    TSN’s NHL draft coverage starts at 2:30 pm ET today with a half-hour pre-draft show. Actual draft goes at 3 pm ET, simulcast on @NBCSN.

    Perhaps this helps?

  52. Lowetide says:

    Rondo:
    Bob Stauffer ‏@Bob_Stauffer 54s
    As for Schneider “some” teams are unwilling to move a top 15 overall pick for him

    What the hell does THAT mean?

  53. tapper says:

    I’m hoping this is all MacT cleverly working the #7, maybe there’s another (better) deal they really like but the other side needs a push.

  54. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Rondo:
    Bob Stauffer ‏@Bob_Stauffer 54s
    As for Schneider “some” teams are unwilling to move a top 15 overall pick for him

    You’d have to think even if the Oil were willing to overpay with the 7th, they’d at least wait and make sure that the 7th isn’t SM. I’m hoping they hold the pick if VN and EL are their too… but that basically means holding the pick. Not sure if the Oil favor VN and EL that much. Hope so.

    I may actually rather have Schneider to Nurse. But I’d much rather have Letang or equivalent than Schneider.

  55. Rondo says:

    Lowetide,

    No clue, but the 15th team is the NYI

  56. Southern Oil says:

    hockeyguy10:
    Southern Oil,

    Bob McKenzie @TSNBobMcKenzie44m
    TSN’s NHL draft coverage starts at 2:30 pm ET today with a half-hour pre-draft show. Actual draft goes at 3 pm ET, simulcast on @NBCSN.

    Perhaps this helps?

    Thanks – I probably should have done a little bit of simple investigation before posting. But I’m too excited! Let’s get this started!

  57. DBO says:

    So top o the morning to ya’all!!

    Going to be in High River ripping up floors, walls and clearing out damaged houses all day. But i’ll have the radio on and a weapon in my hand with an appropriate outlet for my anger if this day turns out poorly. Should be interesting, although unlike in past years i will not be able to voice my anger/happiness, i will shout it to the heavens and join in the chorus of awesomeness or pain coming from the north.

    On that note, Schneider, as I mentioned yesterday, what is his value over replacement. Willis did an article about it, 15 goals is the difference. 1 every 5 games.That is probably good for 6-8 wins over a season, and last year that means playoffs,. Depending on price, i could stomach it.

    Edler is the real interesting one. Could you swing a massive trade and get both Edler and Schneider? You know Philly will be all over them. What would we give up to get both? 71st, 2nd, Gagner and Dubnyk and Marincin? Klefbom? Is that enough? Too much?

  58. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    what is the value of Schneider at the trade deadline in 2015?

    Maybe by then we’ll have someone challenging for the number one and we can send him away for a pretty penny before he needs to get the big cheese?

    I mean OTT proved that you can acquire a G and flip him for a profit (see: Bishop). If we assume Schneider holds value… maybe only having him for 2 years isn’t that big a deal?

  59. JohnnyRocket says:

    Steamwhistle. Great cold lager. Brewed in Ontario. Organic. Nice clean, slightly hoppy finish.

    Please no to Schnieder, unless it is for a second rounder plus a marginal prospect. Our window is 3-5 years. Yak will start hitting it out of the park in 2. Nuge will get his man strength. Schnieder would be gone by then.

    Goodness, MacTavish would burn through all the goodwill he has garnered quickly with that move. Is Lowe’s fingerprints on this one? It just doesn’t jive with all the good things MacT has been saying. It’s been “common sense, common sense, common sense, batshit crazy…”. I’m more apprehensive now than I was with Dithers. At least Tambo would whiff out on third liners and role players. You knew he couldn’t close with the big deals, which was comforting, because it was always whale-hunting. It sounds like MacT is trying to close another Lowe whale-hunt and he might be the man to do it.

    Good thing the beer fridge is full.

  60. wordbird says:

    some sort of Hefeweizen, to start. Although an oxygen mask may be more appropriate to get thru the first 10 picks or so…

    man, this Schneider business is just soooo fishy. So MacT moves him in, DD out… we still don’t have a backup goalie? And with all the assets in play, do we have picks left to draft another goalie to help fill out a thin organization stable?

    I guess i get Gillis trying to get something for something, but if someone bites on Schneider.. then what? no way Luongo starts the year as their #1, then who? They have no cap room!?! Their compete window with the Twins, etc. is closing, fast.

    None of this makes any sense. The only VAN goalie i want is the Swede we just missed out on :/

  61. DBO says:

    Kris Letang contract with Penguins. 8 years / 58 M (#58!) 7.25 AVV Limited no trade to 15 teams. #RDS

  62. DBO says:

    Wild trades Justin Falk to the Rangers for Ferriero and a sixth rounder in 2014.

    It’s all happening!!! man am I desperate for news.

  63. Maverick says:

    Morning!!

    Exciting day ahead, let’s hope it lives up to all the hype. Booked the day off as soon as it was announced after the lockout, should be interesting.

  64. spoiler says:

    Tumultuous!

    Only one thing can withstand tumultuous…

    Unflappable!

    I don’t think there’s any chance Schneider becomes an Oiler.

  65. 99thoilerfan says:

    DBO:
    Kris Letang contract with Penguins. 8 years / 58 M (#58!) 7.25 AVV Limited no trade to 15 teams. #RDS

    Funny, I am glad he is off the table….

  66. Mr DeBakey says:

    On Schneider

    I went looking around for some different POVs.
    Its a sad day when the Canucks’ Hockeybuzz guy is the Voice of Reason:

    “Surprise, surprise, TSN ultimate rumour monger Double D is at it again. Does anyone truly think that anyone in the Canucks organization talks with this guy? What has likely happened is other teams are “asking” if Schneider is in play. Gillis is responding with, well… for the right price, yes.
    Would Vancouver deal Schneider? Yes…for the right price everyone in available. …
    If Schneider is dealt the price will be high. And if the oilers truly are very interested in him Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and one of a 2014 first rd pick, Klefbom or Paajarvi will be the return”

    Remember, its not Double D & his colleagues’ job to inform you, their job is to get you all revved up!

  67. skinny65 says:

    Letang signs with the Pens. 8 years, 58 mil. 7.25 per year.

  68. Ryan says:

    Couple questions floating around in my mind today.

    1. Vignault was always quick to pull Schneider after a few stinkers which probably protects his SV%. In contrast, the Oilers would ride it out if Dubnyk was playing poorly and wait for 5 or 6 goals before pulling the plug. The impact that this would have on a goalies SV% should be real.

    2. Rask and Schneider played in front of a pretty good d corps vs dubnyk. Has anyone tried to do analysis on the impact of defensemen on a goalie’s SV%? Would be difficult to tackle for sure…

    From Tencer’s latest tweet, it doesn’t sound like a deal gets done for Schneider…

    “On Schneider, Gillis just continues to play the market and reach for more and more return. Maybe it does get done, but far from sure bet IMO”

  69. Ryan says:

    DBO:
    Kris Letang contract with Penguins. 8 years / 58 M (#58!) 7.25 AVV Limited no trade to 15 teams. #RDS

    No chance we’re on that list, so that’s out for sure.

  70. speeds says:

    Despite many irons in fire, told its still more likely than not Oilers hold on to No. 7 pick. Two second rd picks in play however.— Mark Spector (@SportsnetSpec) June 30, 2013

  71. RexLibris says:

    Okay, I hate the Schneider deal as it has been framed thus far.

    Here is the only way I can see it working such that I could stomach it: 7th and Musil for Schneider, then Schneider, Pitlick and a 2nd to Philadelphia for Couturier and Coburn.

    I have to think that MacTavish would like to upgrade goaltending if offered the choice, but recognizes that center and defense were the weaknesses when he got on the plane and will still be there when he gets back home unless addressed.

  72. spoiler says:

    12 Angry Men…. now that was an important movie… will we be able to keep the story straight today and see justice served?

    Some draft thoughts:

    –Horvat’s stock has really been rising and he could go in the top 10. Maguire’s 2013 fave too, so expect some thigh gushing and Toews comparisons
    –Carolina will trade their pick… I’m going to guess for Edler
    –Drouin will not go top 3.
    –Fucale will go in the 1st round… maybe as high as top 15. Maybe to the Isles if they don”t trade for Schneider
    –Jarry will not last to the Anaheim pick

    Bold:

    Oilers flip 7 for Philly 11, add 2014 2nd and choice of Rajala or Gernat for Coburn
    Draft Horvat/Gauthier
    Draft Jarry
    Draft M-O Roy
    …and get out of Dodge.

  73. Ryan says:

    My bold prediction: A heck of a lot less happens today than we’re all anticipating.

  74. theres oil in virginia says:

    Mr DeBakey,

    C’mon man, I don’t believe anything unless it comes from “Dreger-face”!

    https://twitter.com/DregerFace

  75. bill needle says:

    If you use old, quaint GAA, Schneider is pretty much a half-goal a game better than Dubnyk every year. Stretch that over a first-stringer’s usual 60 games, and that’s 30 fewer goals against.
    That’s a playoff spot in Edmonton.

  76. Ducey says:

    The Pens have $45 million committed to 8 players for 2014-15. 6 of those have NTC. Letang may yet have one as well.

    Yikes.

  77. lance says:

    Having DD and CS battle for the #1 job is ___ % better than a tenured #1 and no significant option?

    Having Yak/Nich battling Hall/Ebs for numbers is ___% better than trading Yak for D and #7 for G?

    maybe competition is even more unchartable than character.

  78. thebiggestmanintheworld says:

    Was watching some clips of our list of potentials. I looked at some highlites of Lindholm, Monahan, Nichuskin, Nurse and Ristoalinen.

    If Nichuskin somehow slips to us, I would run to the podium, not walk, to make that selection. He looked like a man against boys in the K some nights. I believe he would continue to drive wide like that, and with his size and speed……oh boy…..him and Yak on a line together? Hell yeah son….

    Elias Lindolm looks really smart and crafty. Not unlike a center we have here now….They didn’t really have a lot of defensive clips on him, but he looks like he can track his man. The NHLsize might set him back, even when he’s ready for the jump.

    Sean Monahan looks like most Oiler fan’s wet dream when they picture the center they want behind Nuge. Big, smart, and skilled. Looks to have nice hands and tough to push off the puck.

    Darnell Nurse looks good. Lean, but sturdy on his skates. Man, can he toss the knuckles too. Always seems to get his shot through, and when he does rush the net, has the speed to get around, and the wingspan of a city bus. Closes gaps quick and has a mean streak.

    Rasmus Ristolainen has a bomb of a shot. Looks like a smooth skater, and judging by the one shootout goal, has fairly smooth hands as well. Big, and a Finn, he won some points with my wife when she spotted the mullet he was rocking….(we need to stock up on our Finn’s AND mullets! win/win)

    If I was the head scout for the Oilers (why is no one returning my emails????) I would have it:
    1.Nichuskin
    2Monahan
    3.Lindholm
    4.Nurse
    5.Ristolainen

    Honestly, I don’t think Nichuskin and Monahan will be there at 7, so welcome Elias Lindholm!

    Go Oil Go….

  79. Ducey says:

    bill needle:
    If you use old, quaint GAA, Schneider is pretty much a half-goal a game better than Dubnyk every year. Stretch that over a first-stringer’s usual 60 games, and that’s 30 fewer goals against.
    That’s a playoff spot in Edmonton.

    Sure. But DD faces a lot better quality of shot than Schneider. The difference between the two isn’t worth Monahan and MPS.

  80. Gordies Elbow says:

    Ducey,

    Letang has a 15 team NTC.

    Lot’s of cash for 8 players. 64 million cap upcoming. Wow.

  81. gogliano says:

    Is “How many irons in the fire does your team have?” the official catchphrase of this year’s draft or did the press just come to an informal agreement that this is the only way they’ll talk about MacT’s activity levels?

  82. PunjabiOil says:

    Hoping Nichuskin falls to #7. He will likely go #5 though if Carolina still has that pick.

    Will likely be between Lindholm, Monahan, and Nurse at #7.

    We wait.

  83. Professor Q says:

    spoiler,

    My uncles are at the draft with Horvat’s family. Going to be exciting to see where he ends up regardless, but would be really exciting for me (one of the only Oilers fans in my family here in London) if the Oilers somehow drafted him!

  84. Ben says:

    @Bob_Stauffer
    It wouldn’t surprise me if Craig MacTavish is getting calls on Magnus Paajarvi. Relatively cheap(RFA) 3rd liner with some upside.

    Hmm…I wonder where the OIlers could find a player like that?

  85. Professor Q says:

    JohnnyRocket,

    Steamwhistle is indeed excellent, and hugely popular in London…can’t believe I forgot about it!

  86. Professor Q says:

    Ben,

    I think the Oilers need to keep quite a few of the players who are “in talks”…in order to keep consistency and grow…trade other, older assets and look heavily to FA and the draft to improve the team.

  87. BlacqueJacque says:

    Ducey: Sure.But DD faces a lot better quality of shot than Schneider.The difference between the two isn’t worth Monahan and MPS.

    Bingo. Schneider is worth maybe Dubnyk plus a second rounder.

  88. oilswell says:

    Maybe MacT is looking at Schneider as his Roloson. That single transaction might have had a dramatic impact on his roster thoughts. Roloson was a late 1st and a 3rd, and old. Of course there’s some difference between where the two teams were, but we don’t see the whole picture yet either.

  89. BlacqueJacque says:

    Is anyone here going to a bar to watch the draft and shoot the shit? Some buddies and I were going to go to MKT on Whyte but that’s a less than ideal sports bar (but best damn poutine in the city – just make sure to load it with pulled pork, don’t waste your time with the chipotle chicken). Besides, two of them bailed because of long weekend plans, and the third hasn’t gotten back to me since yesterday about whether or not he’s still doing this.

  90. RexLibris says:

    The minute the Oilers trade Paajarvi, unless it is for an older version, the question will become “where are we going to find a dependable bottom six forward with size who can chip in an occasional goal?”

    In fact, aren’t they asking that question already in an effort to add more Paajarvis to the group?

    Suspect that, in spite of his relatively underwhelming scoring numbers and depth role, Paajarvi may be included in that “we’d need to have a significant offer to part with him” group.

  91. BlacqueJacque says:

    RexLibris,

    Exactly. Trading Paajarvi leaves a hole. More than that, Magnus has made big steps in development, particularly last season. He’s adding a real power game to his repertoire. Finally, this is a kid you don’t have to push to play defence, he does it on his own.

  92. theres oil in virginia says:

    RexLibris,

    My thoughts exactly.
    And sending him (or another roster forward) away for a goalie is questionable, unless they’re sending a goalie away for another forward. I wonder if they think they can fill the forward spot with UFA.

  93. Woodguy says:

    Southern Oil:
    This day is shaping up quite well.Wife & the kids are heading out of town earlier to Hilton Head for the 4th.I will join them later in the week.The house will be nice and quite right around 3pm.I am suppose to paint my son’s room but I am not picking up a brush until the end of the first round.

    Then I realized, this thing is probably not being streamed on line is it?I’ll have to try to find a radio feed I guess.Sometimes, I can’t figure the NHL out.

    NBC Sports has the first 5 hours of coverage, then it switches to the NHL network.

    They are both picking up TSN’s broadcast.

  94. Gordies Elbow says:

    Darren Dreger ‏@DarrenDreger 3m
    Bobrovsky being offered to teams by the Blue Jackets. Told he wants $6 mil per. Columbus in market for a goalie.

    So, add Bobo to the mix. Wonder if he’d cost less, in terms of trade assets, than CS?

    Does having an additional goalie in play affect the market?

  95. theres oil in virginia says:

    Woodguy: NBC Sports has the first 5 hours of coverage, then it switches to the NHL network.

    They are both picking up TSN’s broadcast.

    Unfortunately, I think nbcsports streaming is only for “cable customers” (or some satellite), so if you already have cable, you can log on to the site and get the feed. These guys are trying their best to lock everyone in to cable and its variants. (Hint: They’re owned by comcast.)

  96. Marc says:

    I don’t think it follows that because the Oilers are in on Schneider (whether or not the 7 is in play) that MacT has prioritsed goal ahead of the Oilers’ other areas of weakness. That would only be true if he stopped seeking to upgrade other areas so he could focus on getting a goalie – which is not what we’ve been hearing – or if the assets that we were going to use to upgrade D and C were instead deployed to get a goalie. MacT has been pursuing a 1A/1B goalie for weeks now (Raanta, Bernier) so the interest in Schneider seems more a continuation of a consistent theme, than a change in focus away from other areas of weakness.

  97. Woodguy says:

    Darren Dreger ‏@DarrenDreger 8m
    Bobrovsky being offered to teams by the Blue Jackets. Told he wants $6 mil per. Columbus in market for a goalie.

  98. RexLibris says:

    Gordies Elbow:
    Darren Dreger ‏@DarrenDreger 3m
    Bobrovsky being offered to teams by the Blue Jackets. Told he wants $6 mil per. Columbus in market for a goalie.

    So, add Bobo to the mix. Wonder if he’d cost less, in terms of trade assets, than CS?

    Does having an additional goalie in play affect the market?

    Wait, a Russian goalie asking for too much money after one good year?

    Sign Holmgren up! I know he came from the Flyers, but their official management motto is “that’s just crazy enough it might work!”.

  99. PaperDesigner says:

    Paajarvi should only be available for a type of player that the Oilers need, and is much harder to acquire, IE, a top-pairing defenceman. If you need to include him, along with, say, Smid, Marincin and next year’s first pick to get Edler, you do it. But if you’re just getting a second-pairing guy or a second line winger, well, you can get those guys with other assets, so pass.

  100. Woodguy says:

    theres oil in virginia: Unfortunately, I think nbcsports streaming is only for “cable customers” (or some satellite), so if you already have cable, you can log on to the site and get the feed.These guys are trying their best to lock everyone in to cable and its variants.(Hint: They’re owned by comcast.)

    Never underestimate how many ways that Ed Snider can make you pay.

  101. jb says:

    If I were looking to be bold and make things happen I’m phoning Pittsburgh offering #7, Gagner +, for Malkin. Gives them some extreme cap relief, a skilled 2c replacement to play behind Crosby, and fill the value with anything from a prospect/pick to even a Paajarvi if that’s what it takes.

    Malkin
    Nuge
    Horcoff

    Fantasizing truly is fun.. but I’m not gettin my rocks off to Cory fucking Scheider

  102. PaperDesigner says:

    Woodguy:
    Darren Dreger ‏@DarrenDreger 8m
    Bobrovsky being offered to teams by the Blue Jackets. Told he wants $6 mil per. Columbus in market for a goalie.

    If it’s a cap dump, what would you need to add to Dubnyk to get him? Maybe just a depth pick? A mid-level prospect?

    I’m not opposed to improving the netminding situation, I’m just leery of trading away this team’s scant available high-end assets for goaltending when other areas need much more attention.

  103. spoiler says:

    Does having an additional goalie in play affect the market?

    Oh yeah, it does. I imagine any trade involving him will require a conditional kicker based on signing him though.

  104. RexLibris says:

    Woodguy: Never underestimate how many ways that Ed Snider can make you pay.

    Clearly, with Bryzgalov, a philosophy he practices internally as well.

  105. SoxandOil says:

    Myles Bell would be a excellent sleeper pick although I’m sure many teams have him on their list. Wasn’t he projected to be a first round pick in 2011? Did he play anywhere 2011/12? Also since he was undrafted his first 2 eligible years shouldn’t he be a free agent?

  106. Captain Happy says:

    TSN ‏@TSN_Sports 6m

    Report: Pens agree to terms with Letang on eight-year, $58M deal: Go to TSN.ca for details. #TSN http://bit.ly/1as1RV4

  107. mustang says:

    This rumour about #7 for Schneider makes no sence what so ever, I don’t buy it. MacT doesn’t work for Vancouver, and they are the ones who benefit in this trade. MacT isn’t stupid, there would have to be more to it for sure, as most posters have indicated.

  108. jb says:

    bill needle:
    If you use old, quaint GAA, Schneider is pretty much a half-goal a game better than Dubnyk every year. Stretch that over a first-stringer’s usual 60 games, and that’s 30 fewer goals against.
    That’s a playoff spot in Edmonton.

    I don’t think it works like that.. GAA is heavily team influenced. Some teams prioritize strong team D and have tendency to be in 2-1 games.. while other teams are built more like the current Oilers.. heavy up front, very weak in the back, and could be more prone to those 5-4 type games.

    I do agree Schneider is probably a bit better than Dubnyk at the moment, but it possible you see there stats flip if Dubnyk broke in on the Canucks.. While Scheider was the #1 behind the Oilers of the last few years..

  109. RexLibris says:

    One Vancouver blogger suggests that Schneider’s value is in the range of “another franchise type player”.

    Seems to me there’s something amiss with the grammar of that statement. Can’t quite put my finger on it though…

    ;-)

  110. gogliano says:

    Woodguy: Never underestimate how many ways that Ed Snider can make you pay.

    If you find anything let me know. My current solution is to watch the TSN feed via proxy but these things always crap out on me.

  111. PunjabiOil says:

    Aaron Portzline ‏@Aportzline now

    And, yes, indications are Bobrovsky wants north of $6 per season on a two-year deal. To say talks are salty is fair at this point.

    _______________

    That’s not a long-term commitment. If you’re really sour on Dubnyk, maybe acquire Bobrovsky (late 2nd?), negotiate it down to 5.75M, and go only 2 years.

    Beats the alternative of using a 7th for CS.

  112. RexLibris says:

    Dubnyk has had steadily improving numbers playing in a shooting gallery.

    Bobrovsky has had one good year after some struggles in the goalie-graveyard in Philadelphia. Given the already occult nature of goalie assessment, I wouldn’t move off of a known factor with Dubnyk’s numbers for a less consistent asset, even if the numbers occasionally peak to league leading.

  113. spoiler says:

    My dark horse depth pick for this draft is Jan-Pavel Laplante who missed all but 18 games this season with shoulder surgery for a torn labrum. So like at least that’s already out of the way for the Oilers.

    13 points in 18 games. 5 points on 6 games in playoffs. Attended the Hlinka and could have been a first rounder if not for the injury. Impact player vor his team who plays all forward positions, kills penalties and has offensive upside.

  114. PunjabiOil says:

    Yeah, I’m not for acquiring Bobrovsky, but it would be a lesser of the two evils between him and Schneider.

  115. HugThePost says:

    I cannot believe the asking price for Schneider appears to be so high?

    Aren’t the Canucks right up against the Cap and in a bad bad spot? Gillis is in a very vulnerable position it seems.

    It’s no secret that amongst players the Canucks are probably the league’s most hated team. They whine, dive, and as a group basically conduct themselves as a band of arrogant pricks. Ditto for most of their fans who show up at Rexall for games. Those who have encountered them know what I mean.

    I wonder if a similar sentiment exists amongst the GM’s towards the Canucks?

    Anyways, the GM’s should all be trying to take Gillis to the woodshed in any trades—they’ve all got him where they want him.

  116. rickithebear says:

    WG & DBO

    Sav% better marker
    6-8 GD
    might want to look @ all three d pairs.
    might want to look at the bottom pairs for EVGA results.

  117. jb says:

    Keep the pick and I think we can walk away real happy with Nichushkin or Monahan.

  118. PunjabiOil says:

    Dennis Bernstein ‏@DennisTFP
    on @SN590 our @TheFourthPeriod says EDM has offered package including Devan Dubynk and 7th overall for Veziina winner Sergei Bobrovsky

  119. RexLibris says:

    Re: Gillis’ position in trades

    This is the same agent who had Nylander pull out of his deal with the Oilers.

    Gillis has always played a very aggressive game. The further he feels backed into a corner the more he fights. The Canucks need to make changes and that appearance of vulnerability seems to make Gillis want to fight all the harder.

    It isn’t the most constructive way of doing things. What might work better is if he would simply shelve the Schneider trade-talk, move Luongo for picks over the summer, when they have the least value to a GM, and then see if he wants to part with one or two pieces for a different asset, ie: Edler for Couturier.

    Instead he is determined to turn his goaltenders into elite talent for the top six. There is a disparity between management’s perception of their players’ value and reality.

  120. RexLibris says:

    PunjabiOil:
    Dennis Bernstein ‏@DennisTFP
    on @SN590 our @TheFourthPeriod says EDM has offered package including Devan Dubynk and 7th overall for Veziina winner Sergei Bobrovsky

    The Fourth Period is angling for the Giller Prize for Fiction.

  121. Pablo Aimar says:

    PunjabiOil,

    Absurd. He wants 6 mil per year. Insanity.

  122. Marc says:

    For what it’s worth, I don’t think MacT (or anyone else) bites on a top 10 pick for Schneider. If they hold on till after the draft Gillis still has to do something to sort out his goalie mess or he won’t have any cap space when free agency starts, but he’ll have to accept picks from next year instead.

    Unless someone caves (Holmgren, I’m looking at you), it is in all interested parties best interests to push the Schneider talks till after the draft and hope that desperation causes Gillis to lower his price.

    I’m certainly on board with going for Schneider though. He is probably an upgrade on Dubnyk, and the acquisition cost really won’t be too high when you consider the likely return for Dubnyk (ie. first rounder/ good young player + second rounder/decent prospect) base on the last few deals for starting goalies.

  123. spoiler says:

    Darren Dreger@DarrenDreger

    Canucks are not softening on Schneider’s asking price. Might be too rich for the Oilers, but clock is ticking.

  124. Noodles says:

    Darren Dreger ‏@DarrenDreger 1m

    Canucks are not softening on Schneider’s asking price. Might be too rich for the Oilers, but clock is ticking.

    Edit: And Spoiler beat me to it.

  125. Ryan says:

    “Nobody cares about Edmonton so nobody hates them. It’s that simple.”

  126. bill needle says:

    jb: I don’t think it works like that.. GAA is heavily team influenced. Some teams prioritize strong team D and have tendency to be in 2-1 games.. while other teams are built more like the current Oilers.. heavy up front, very weak in the back, and could be more prone to those 5-4 type games.

    I do agree Schneider is probably a bit better than Dubnyk at the moment, but it possible you see there stats flip if Dubnyk broke in on the Canucks.. While Scheider was the #1 behind the Oilers of the last few years..

    If you want a goalie to let in that big goal when your team needs the big save, then Dubnyk is your guy. He’s a placeholder goalie – the guy you put between the pipes when your team is young and crappy like the Oilers have been for the last three seasons when wins didn’t seem to matter.
    Keep Dubnyk as the No. 1 goalie and Oilers fans should start debating who the lottery pick will be next season. Why wait for the December rush?

  127. spoiler says:

    Carolina out of Edler sweeps per Dreger on the latest Insiders update.

  128. stevezie says:

    I get to spend armchair-GM Christmas traveling to Ft Chippewan. Are any of our fine local radio stations carrying the draft?

  129. spoiler says:

    RexLibris:
    Re: Gillis’ position in trades

    This is the same agent who had Nylander pull out of his deal with the Oilers.

    Gillis has always played a very aggressive game. The further he feels backed into a corner the more he fights. The Canucks need to make changes and that appearance of vulnerability seems to make Gillis want to fight all the harder.

    It isn’t the most constructive way of doing things. What might work better is if he would simply shelve the Schneider trade-talk, move Luongo for picks over the summer, when they have the least value to a GM, and then see if he wants to part with one or two pieces for a different asset, ie: Edler for Couturier.

    Instead he is determined to turn his goaltenders into elite talent for the top six. There is a disparity between management’s perception of their players’ value and reality.

    Gillis can’t wait and miss the buyout window, because then he’s hooped if there’s no deal for Luongo later in the summer. Recapture has made him even more untradeable than pre-CBA.

  130. VOR says:

    There are very few ways of comparing two goaltenders from different teams. You can adjust for team differences to some extent by calculating the SV% a team “theoretically” needed to achieve to win 50% of its games and then comparing the two teams. Notice the quotes around theortetically since distribution of goals for and against matters enormously.

    So Shots Against – Goals For/Shots Against for each team.

    This is a proxy measure of how hard it is to be a goaltender on each team.

    This past season Vancouver game up 1389 shots against and scored 122 goals which means their goalies had to have a save % of .912 to win 50% of their games. That isn’t a good number by the way, which is why they bowed out of the playoffs so quickly in all likelyhood.

    The Oilers numbers were 1572 shots against and 123 goals for which means they had to have a SV% of .921 to win 50% of their games. That by the way is an awful number. Good teams can go as low as .860.

    It is roughly 1% harder to be a goaltender in Edmonton than Vancouver. Before we get too excited about Schneider, who is a great goaltender, we should ask what happens to his stats when it is 1% harder to play goal. A .932 SV% might well beccome a .923 SV%. That would still be great but what was Dubnyk this year?

    Another way of comparing them might be to look at games they lost for their teams. In Schneider’s case he was bad in all 9 of the losses his team suffered with him as the goaltender and deserves some blame in all 9 cases. He was also terrible 1 time his team bailed him out. So in 33% of his appearances he was just plain bad. The same number for Dubnyk is 34%.

    Dubnyk gave up 4 or more goals in 7 of 38 appearances for 18%. Schneider gave up 4 or more 6 times in 30 appearances for 20%.

    I can’t see much reason for believing Schneider will improve the Oilers won-loss record by much. He does have a slight edge in the games where he faced more than 30 shots (15) with a SV% of .941 versus Dubnyk’s .934 SV% in games where he faced more than 30 shots (22).

    There really isn’t much difference period and it can all be accounted for by team effect. Not to mention that shot blocking has consistently been shown to be slightly negatively correlated with SV% after allowing for other team effects (yes I know that is counter-intuitive but is still quite a robust finding). Edmonton blocked far more shots than Vancouver this year which would reduce DD’s save percentage and needs to be accounted for in some way.

    It is not ridiculous to speculate that Schneider might actually give you worse outcomes than Dubnyk once you account for shot blocking and other team effects. Once again, that isn’t to say Schneider isn’t great, he is. I am merely saying the math makes an argument that Dubnyk is at least as good and maybe better.

  131. spoiler says:

    Darren Dreger@DarrenDreger

    San Jose may add a depth forward. Hearing Cal Clutterbuck as a possibility for the Sharks

    NHL on TSN@NHLonTSN

    The Wild have traded the rights to Justin Falk to the Rangers for the rights to Benn Ferriero and a 6th-round pick in the 2014 NHL Draft

  132. Ribs says:

    #128 overall: L Myles Bell. Moved from D to L and had tremendous success. May go much higher, but if available could be a wise choice. Bell turns 20 in August.

    Wouldn’t that be something for MacTavish to draft this guy! I guess if anyone was to know about second chances, it would be him.

    Here’s the RibsList….

    #7 – Sean Monahan – Alternate selection – Darnell Nurse

    Monahan just seems to be the surefire pick. I’m more unsure of the players predicted around him so I go with MacTavish and go with the big kid who “likes to hit people”.

    #37 – Morgan Klimchuk – Alternate Selection – Shea Theodore

    A quick, multi-dimensional player in Klimchuk. He’s the guy. Shea Theodore has too much offense to pass up. Could bust as his defensive games sounds pretty shabby, but worth the risk, in my opinion.

    #56 – William Carrier – Alternate Selection – Dillon Heatherington – *

    Carrier is physical with a scoring touch. Rushes with authority and goes to the dirtier areas of the ice. Heatherington might not be around here but I’d look for a physical defenceman like him in this spot.

    * I would love to take Anton Slepyshev if he plans to come to the NHL. It looks like he has another year overseas to go but he has always impressed me.

    #128 – Sean Malone – Alternate Selection – Hunter Garlent

    Both are hardworking players that never quit. Character guys that may be smaller players but at #128, you could certainly do worse.

    #158 – Zachary Sanford – Alternate selection – Dominik Kubalik

    Sanford a big power forward with some hands and is getting used to his lanky frame. Take a shot. Kubalik is a big, strong guy that seems to have had an offensive light turn on.

    Now I’m just waiting for MacTavish to trade away all of the picks to ruin all of our fun. Exciting day!

  133. VOR says:

    So Bill Needle, which exact games is it that Dubnyk gave up the easy goal and cost his team the game? What % of the time did that happen? What is the same stat calculated for Schneider?

  134. HugThePost says:

    We don’t need Schneider as desperately as Gillis needs cap space. MacT certainly is smart enough to realize this; he has got his MBA and everything else.

    It’s like buying a car. When you’re negotiating your price, you look the salesman right in the eye and tell him that you don’t need that car as much as he needs to sell it. And then you walk away. If the offer price improves, great—you get down to business. If not, so what.

    I don’t think Dubby is so flawed that you have to cowtow to Gillis and his stance on what he thinks Schneider is worth.

  135. rickithebear says:

    VOR:
    So Bill Needle, which exact games is it that Dubnyk gave up the easy goal and cost his team the game? What % of the time did that happen? What is the same stat calculated for Schneider?

    AMEN!

  136. jb says:

    spoiler:
    Darren Dreger@DarrenDreger

    Canucks are not softening on Schneider’s asking price. Might be too rich for the Oilers, but clock is ticking.

    Looks like a whole lotta Dreger covering his ass to me. Feed the general public real info please media

  137. spoiler says:

    Ryan Rishaug@TSNRyanRishaug

    Demand for Schneider has very high, unless it comes down, the Oilers will be out.

  138. gangplank says:

    Demand for Schneider has very high, unless it comes down, the Oilers will be out.— Ryan Rishaug (@TSNRyanRishaug) June 30, 2013

  139. bill needle says:

    VOR:
    So Bill Needle, which exact games is it that Dubnyk gave up the easy goal and cost his team the game? What % of the time did that happen? What is the same stat calculated for Schneider?

    Pretty much every Oilers loss.

  140. spoiler says:

    I’m pretty sure when Dreger said 7th yesterday, he was giving out Van’s starting point as all the trade interviews were with Gillis. Doesn’t sound like MacT has met what Gillis wants.

    MacT must be wary of a trade in his own division and knows it really isn’t to his advantage to give a rival big help.

    Just not gonna happen.

  141. Ribs says:

    Hooray for sanity!

  142. Smarmy says:

    I’m in stitches thinking there are people out there that think the Oilers have to offer up RNH to even get the ball rolling with Schneider.

    What bizzarro world did I wake up to?

  143. bookje says:

    bill needle:
    If you use old, quaint GAA, Schneider is pretty much a half-goal a game better than Dubnyk every year. Stretch that over a first-stringer’s usual 60 games, and that’s 30 fewer goals against.
    That’s a playoff spot in Edmonton.

    Never mind that mid level analysis crap, lets take it one level higher and look at winning percentage. Schneider won 64% of the games he played in, Dubnyk won only 47% of the games he played in. Over a whole season, that is a difference of 14 more games won = 28 points. Not only would that make the Oilers more competative, that would have them challenging for First overall!

    Given this information, the only logical thing to do is trade any and all skaters (whatever it takes) for Schneider.

  144. Lucinius says:

    I don’t think Dreger made up the Schneider stuff as some are claiming. He actually has one of the better reputations in the rumour mill industry and I can see MacT and the Oilers pressing hard for what they consider a true, elite #1 goaltender like Schneider.. or (ugh) Bobrovsky (who is nowhere near as good as his numbers suggest — mark my words, he’s another Carey).

    I don’t like the idea of hunting for a #1 elite goalie given the costs associated with them. Especially not the two named. Neither one, quite frankly, has enough of a resume to indicate how good they truly are. Schneider is better than Dubnyk but with goaltenders you never know if two years from now he’s one of the worst goaltenders in the NHL — goalies be weird!

  145. bookje says:

    bill needle: Pretty much every Oilers loss.

    The only problem with your logic is that it has none. Other than that, it is lock solid.

  146. bookje says:

    Lucinius,

    I agree that it is probably a solid rumour, but it could be that MacT sees Van in a bind and is trying to pry Scheider for the 2 second round picks the Oilers have + a prospect and Van is coming back with #7overall and a prospect. It doesn’t mean that MacT is seriously considering paying that.

  147. "Steve Smith" says:

    bookje,

    It’s hard to imagine an argument with less merit on either side than this Needle-Vor scrap over which goalie is chokier. It’s kind of like watching a Canucks-Leafs game.

  148. VOR says:

    Bill Needle,

    So Dubnyk let in soft goals while sitting on the bench? Wow, I had no idea that was even possible.

  149. Lucinius says:

    bookje,

    Oh, I think you’re closer to the truth than people thinking MacT will give up RNH +, or the 7th + for Schneider. Just arguing that the rumour is more likely quite accurate. There’s too much out there substantiating it.

    Also, what it looks like Vancouver wants for Schneider is a high-ish 1st round pick + a solid center prospect.

    I do not make the trade due to just how high the Oiler’s pick is. If we were picking in the 10-15 range? I’d consider it, personally, before saying no because of the overall situation and that I’m personally not sold on Schneider yet. He just hasn’t played enough games for me. Goalies need 250+ games, easy, before you can form a solid opinion on them. And then sometimes they’ll do a 180 out of the blue.

  150. Captain Happy says:

    David Pagnotta ‏@TheFourthPeriod 1m

    I think I need to clarify a rumor floating around. While on @Fan590, I said EDM/CBJ discussing Bobrovsky in package for 7th and Dubnyk

    David Pagnotta ‏@TheFourthPeriod 21s

    I didn’t say 7th overall and Dubnyk for Bobrovsky alone. Deal discussed is much larger. Either way, doubt it happens. (2/2)

  151. Kris11 says:

    Now we play the waiting game.

    ….

    Oh, the waiting game sucks, Let’s play Hungry-Hungry-Hippos.

    -Homer Simpson

  152. hefe667 says:

    spoiler: Ryan Rishaug@TSNRyanRishaugDemand for Schneider has very high, unless it comes down, the Oilers will be out.

    TSN has become little more than “Hockey Porn”. There is a hundred pieces of sensationalist garbage and baseless “insight” for every informative piece of info. For whatever reason it bugs way more surrounding their draft coverage than it does at trade deadline, free agency etc. I remember years ago when Ryan Murphy was falling, and sure enough Ryan Rishaug was right in his face asking him how he felt about it, or when last year after the Leafs drafted Reilly, Duthie pretty much ignored him and started grilling Burke about Luongo. That crosses a line in my opinion.

    On the obscure players to watch today front: Look for a kid named Carson Soucy from the Spruce Grove Saints (rated in the 120′s for NA) to get taken as early as in RD 2. MTL is the likely canditate with their last pick in the round. He will likely not make it past RD 3. He is a big, mobile D-man who with an edge to his game. He is a late bloomer, and classic “draft and follow” player (going U Min Deluth next year). I was hoping the Oilers had a shot at him (they interviewed him on a couple of occasions), but that looks unlikely now.

  153. spoiler says:

    Ryan Rishaug@TSNRyanRishaug

    My sense is the Oilers feel Schneider would be an upgrade. But not a massive one, so they won’t pay a massive price to get him.

    Pierre LeBrun@Real_ESPNLeBrun

    Blue Jackets very close on a new deal with goalie Sergei Bobrovsky…

  154. OilLeak says:

    bill needle,

    You need to watch Oiler games sober from now on.

  155. spoiler says:

    OT:

    I wonder if the flood will impact Calgary’s ability to sign UFAs. Like Lacavalier.

  156. jb says:

    bookje:
    Lucinius,

    I agree that it is probably a solid rumour, but it could be that MacT sees Van in a bind and is trying to pry Scheider for the 2 second round picks the Oilers have + a prospect and Van is coming back with #7overall and a prospect.It doesn’t mean that MacT is seriously considering paying that.

    Yea I agree, but why does TSN need to pretend it’s something it’s not.. It’s pretty clear they’re all covering each others ass’s now, pretending like they just got some sort of updated leaked info which only they’re privy to… so the source called Dreger? then half an hour later decided to give Rishaug the same leak? lol

    It’s interesting to know Mact inquired about Vancouvers goalies probably days ago… he’d be stupid not to try to exploit them based on their situation.. but let’s not blow it all outta of proportion plz.

  157. FPB94 says:

    If the Oilers trade their first for Schneider i’ll just quit watching this team, for good. Devan was IMO a top 10 NHL goalie this year, he’s still just 27 and they don’t have to pay him much because somehow people think he’s soft (whatever that means). He’s in a sweet spot.

    Only acceptable trade out would be for a power forward or a proven defenseman.

    Last time a goalie was traded for such a price (even then, Lars Eller wasn’t doing that good), it was Halak and he just single handedly took MTL to the conference finals. Shneider didn’t do squat.

    At least they seem to be off the Curtis Lazar bandwagon.

  158. Dark Asia says:

    VOR,

    Solid analysis by vor and I agree that it’s unclear in the long run who will be better between Schneider and Dubnyk. Sample size inadequate especially with respect to both guys and especially Schneider who has never played more than 33 games as an NHL starter. To trade significant assets for Schneider one has to assume that Dubnyk will not improve (questionable) and buy into Schneider’s numbers irrespective of small sample size and team effect. I actually think they are quite comparable in results but obviously achieve this with a quite different style of play. Schnedier looks sexier but Dubnyk gets results too. Goal is the least of that team’s worries aside from top 6 RW and what better way to mess with your young goalie’s head than the slag him after a a solid first season as a starter and constantly look to replace him over the summer. But the Oilers never had a clue about goalies and their talk about Dubnyk needing to be “pushed” only shows how little they understand the mental side of playing goal in the NHL. Like goalies doesn’t have enough pressure in a position where almost every mistake is highlighted by a red light going off above your head, horns blowing and thousand of people yelling. In any case the negative vibe from management that feeds the clueless masses has started. This proceeds any red pill player being drummed out of town and it’s started for Dubnyk. Look forward to him killing the Oilers for many years to come on another team like so many other guys who were crapped on and subsequently traded for non hockey reasons.

  159. Ducey says:

    Hi Asia!

  160. spoiler says:

    Dark Asia:
    VOR,

    Solid analysis by vor and I agree that it’s unclear in the long run who will be better between Schneider and Dubnyk. Sample size inadequate especially with respect to both guys and especially Schneider who has never played more than 33 games as an NHL starter. To trade significant assets for Schneider one has to assume that Dubnyk will not improve (questionable) and buy into Schneider’s numbers irrespective of small sample size and team effect. I actually think they are quite comparable in results but obviously achieve this witha quite different style of play. Schnedier looks sexier but Dubnyk gets results too. Goal is the least of that team’s worries aside from top 6 RW and what better way to mess with your young goalie’s head than the slag him after a a solid first season as a starter and constantly look to replace him over the summer. But the Oilers never had a clue about goalies and their talk about Dubnyk needing to be “pushed” only shows how little they understand the mental side of playing goal in the NHL. Like goalies doesn’t have enough pressure in a position where almost every mistake is highlighted by a red light going off above your head, horns blowing and thousand of people yelling. In any case the negative vibe from management that feeds the clueless masses has started. This proceeds any red pill player being drummed out of town and it’s started for Dubnyk. Look forward to him killing the Oilers for many years to come on another team like so many other guys who were crapped on and subsequently traded for non hockey reasons.

    Where does that put Gillis, or the Finn in Columbus, who have been trying to trade their starter?. In fact Gillis initiated both the Luongo and Schneider markets, not MacT… Are they messing with their goalies’ heads?

    It’s part of the game to be involved in trade talks. And it’s not a bad message to send to Dubnyk: keep improving. No one has a guaranteed spot on this team.

  161. gangplank says:

    tyler kennedy anyone?

  162. FPB94 says:

    gangplank,

    That’s always good.

  163. bookje says:

    If MacT does not make a trade today, I suggest that we start calling him MacT 2.0

  164. OilClog says:

    bookje,

    Or MacTimid

    maybe Curious Craig.. finding out what everything is about in a cute and cuddly way.. then running back into the arms of the Yellow Man.. KLowe.

  165. Lowetide says:

    I’m quite encouraged that the Canucks deal appears dead. I will not allow myself to truly be delighted until they make a pick. Whenever that may be.

  166. Captain Happy says:

    James Duthie ‏@tsnjamesduthie 16m

    “@Real_ESPNLeBrun: one NHL exec on the draft floor: “I bet we see 10 trades today at least.” Then he added “And that’s just the Oilers!”
    Expand

  167. Chris says:

    On the beer front recently I’ve been a huge fan of Granville Island’s Honey Brown and Rickard’s Blonde.

    As for the Oilers trade moves I’m glad Letang is signed with the Peguins as I’d rather they be saddled with that boat anchor than us. Its always nice when tsn reals back the trade rumors with respect to Schnieder to the realms of sanity. I don’t mind if we kicked tires on the guy he is good, but Dreger’s suggestion MacT was shouting “I’ll give you anything!” was rather disconcerting as the last thing I want to see is the team move from Tambo’s narcolepsy to a GM with a gambling compulsion.

  168. spoiler says:

    Darren Dreger@DarrenDreger

    Not much out of Gillis. Says he’s still prepared to be patient and isn’t feeling pressure to make any deal

    Ryan Rishaug@TSNRyanRishaug

    Lots of chatter on the floor about pick number five. Sounds like its likely being moved.

  169. spoiler says:

    Would anyone do Petry, Gernat and our 2nd rounder for the 5th?

    Sign Gilbert after he’s bought out?

    Draft Nichushkin/Barkov/Drouin and Lindholm?

    Yeah, I know, never happen.

  170. FPB94 says:

    spoiler,

    Never in a million years. Petry isn’t worth all that much, neither is Gernat.

  171. Magnus says:

    If MacTavish trades the #7 for a goaltender, then my worst fears about him are true.

    1. All the talk of him being such an intelligent guy is vastly over-blown. The above trade would be foolish when options to improve goaltending are out there at a fraction of the cost being asked for by Vancouver for Schneider.
    2. Poor judge of talent and value. This is a guy who soured on Dustin Penner, Jason Chimera, Joni Pitkanen, Raffi Torres and Kyle Brodziak, and was part of the team (headed by Lowe) who let players like Radek Dvorak, Curtis Glencross and Jan Hejda slip through their fingers while they went whale hunting for players like Danny Heatley.
    3. He plays favourites with players, and irrationally so. Review the list of players listed above that got into MacTavish’s doghouse. They were all effective players for the team and had the puck moving in the right direction, yet were either healthy scratches and/or called out by the coach publicly before finally being traded.

    I hope I’m wrong, but these reports seem to indicate that these characteristics persist. It would seem Dubnyk has undeservedly ended up in MacTavish’s bad books when he clearly hasn’t been the problem. Trading an affordable and effective young player with potential like MPS, would also be a failure in judging talent and value.

  172. Chris says:

    I’d be leery about moving Petry with his replacement being only speculative. We aren’t exactly looking around right now and saying “holy moly we have a lot of defensemen”.

  173. godot10 says:

    spoiler:
    Would anyone do Petry, Gernat and our 2nd rounder for the 5th?

    Sign Gilbert after he’s bought out?

    Draft Nichushkin/Barkov/Drouin and Lindholm?

    Yeah, I know, never happen.

    The Oilers biggest problem is defense. And you want to trade away arguably the Oilers most competent all-around defensemen at the moment and the D prospect with the highest upside offensive potential to draft more forwards.

    The Oilers already have enough elite forward talent (apart from a 2nd line centre), with no defensemen to get them the puck.

    The way MacT can improve this team the fastest is by adding Monahan or Lindholm or trading Nichushkin for a centre, and getting a legit top 4D by trade.

  174. PaperDesigner says:

    Any final thoughts on who you guys want with the number seven pick out of who might realistically be there? My list goes like…

    1. Lindholm
    2. Monahan
    3. Nikushkin

  175. bookje says:

    So, with Gilbert being bought out, is it safe to say that Tambellini did ok on the Schultz-Gilbert trade?

  176. eidy says:

    Sounds like Carolina has 3-6 offers to move up. It doesn’t sound like the drop off from 5-7 is much, so maybe one of the other trades comes to the oilers for immediate help. Toronto has been rumoured to be one of the teams that wants to move up before and 21+Gardiner for 7 might be a fall back.

    They also don’t seem sold on Gabrovski, maybe Horcoff or Hemsky goes the other way as well and we have a nice Horcoff replacement.

  177. spoiler says:

    FPB94:
    spoiler,

    Never in a million years. Petry isn’t worth all that much, neither is Gernat.

    Petry’s valuable because of his contract… they’re looking for a Dman cheaper than Edler who can carry the puck. Petry fits their needs, except they’re looking for a little more offense (which will be a tough match to the cheapness).

    But obviously, this wouldn’t beat Reilly or Gardiner if either rumour is true.

  178. Lucinius says:

    My preferences for the #7 pick goes; Lindholm, Monahan, Nikushkin, Nurse, trade.

  179. FPB94 says:

    spoiler,

    His offensive output wasn’t that strong this year. He’s worth a 2nd I would guess.

  180. PaperDesigner says:

    bookje:
    So, with Gilbert being bought out, is it safe to say that Tambellini did ok on the Schultz-Gilbert trade?

    Depends if his diabolical plan all along was, having foreseen Gilbert’s upcoming terrible luck in the 2013 season, to acquire Schultz, and then sign Gilbert at a much reduced cap hit for three years at 2.5 per, and was merely fired before he could consummate this plan.

    From what I’ve read, a couple of the online guys have pointed out Gilbert’s poor season has had a lot to do with very poor luck, and not too much else. Would Gilbert help this team? Very much so. He can play top four minutes, some PP, some PK. I would LOVE to have him back.

  181. bookje says:

    Captain Happy:
    James Duthie ‏@tsnjamesduthie 16m

    “@Real_ESPNLeBrun: one NHL exec on the draft floor: “I bet we see 10 trades today at least.” Then he added “And that’s just the Oilers!”
    Expand

    I hope it wasn’t in a mocking tone.

  182. FPB94 says:

    bookje,

    Did any of you watch the NBA draft? It was insane… the best in years.

  183. spoiler says:

    godot10: The Oilers biggest problem is defense.And you want to trade away arguably the Oilers most competent all-around defensemen at the moment and the D prospect with the highest upside offensive potential to draft more forwards.

    The Oilers already have enough elite forward talent (apart from a 2nd line centre), with no defensemen to get them the puck.

    The way MacT can improve this team the fastest is by adding Monahan or Lindholm or trading Nichushkin for a centre, and getting a legit top 4D by trade.

    Gilbert would replace Petry, and this presumes we also add Coburn.

    In fact, getting the 5th makes it easier to flip the 7th and a 2nd for Philly’s 11th and Coburn.

    Draft Nichushkin/Barkov/Drouin and Horvat/Nurse/Zadarov/Risto.

    But again, this is all blue sky on my part.

  184. spoiler says:

    Captain Happy:
    James Duthie ‏@tsnjamesduthie 16m

    “@Real_ESPNLeBrun: one NHL exec on the draft floor: “I bet we see 10 trades today at least.” Then he added “And that’s just the Oilers!”
    Expand

    bookje: I hope it wasn’t in a mocking tone.

    The “and then he added” was tacked on by Duthie as a joke, I believe.

  185. spoiler says:

    Bob Stauffer‏@Bob_Stauffer13m

    Oilers still in the mix on the Coburn front…

    Good.

  186. BlacqueJacque says:

    What do you guys figure the odds are that Monahan is gone at #5? I’m thinking 40/60 right now.

    I’m certain he doesn’t make it past Calgary.

  187. spoiler says:

    If we can walk out of this draft with Coburn, Clutterbuck, Jarry, one of Lindholm, Monahan, Horvat or Gauthier, I will be ecstatic about all the tumult.

  188. pboy says:

    30 minutes and counting…..

  189. PaperDesigner says:

    BlacqueJacque:
    What do you guys figure the odds are that Monahan is gone at #5?I’m thinking 40/60 right now.

    I’m certain he doesn’t make it past Calgary.

    If that means we get Lindholm, I’m okay with that.

  190. bookje says:

    FPB94:
    bookje,

    Did any of you watch the NBA draft? It was insane… the best in years.

    Is that the game where the puck is big round and brown and they bounce it around and throw it into hanging fishing nets, or is it the game where the puck is small, white, and round and they try to hit it with their short round sticks and then run around a bunch of white couch pillows?

  191. "Steve Smith" says:

    I have no particular basis for this impression, but my recollection is that, as a coach, MacTavish seemed to value Gilbert. Is that correct? I would love to see him back here in the $2.5 million range.

  192. rickithebear says:

    spoiler: Gilbert would replace Petr

    And steckel would replace crosby!

  193. Captain Happy says:

    Pierre LeBrun ‏@Real_ESPNLeBrun 4m

    Flames leaning right toward keeping No 6 pick. Had spoken to Boston (Seguin)… for now thinking they’ll keep pick. Could change of course

  194. Lowetide says:

    “Steve Smith”:
    I have no particular basis for this impression, but my recollection is that, as a coach, MacTavish seemed to value Gilbert.Is that correct?I would love to see him back here in the $2.5 million range.

    Played him 22 minutes a night.

  195. spoiler says:

    spoiler: Gilbert would replace Petr

    rickithebear: And
    steckel would replace crosby!

    Dude, the fact that you can extend misspelling to quotes is actually breathtakingly awesome in some strange way.

  196. pboy says:

    Regis McGuire is back! I can’t wait to hear about Seth Jones’ muscley thighs.

  197. PaperDesigner says:

    Lowetide: Played him 22 minutes a night.

    Having Gilbert on the right side alongside Petry and Schultz would have me feeling quite at peace.

  198. FPB94 says:

    God the TSN guys are such a bunch of tools. Lawlz.

  199. "Steve Smith" says:

    Lowetide,

    Accords with my decidedly unreliable recollection – thanks, LT.

    In no particular order, I think a defensive corps of Smid, Petry, Schultz, Schultz, Gilbert, Coburn, and Belov may not be totally terrible.

  200. spoiler says:

    Pierre LeBrun@Real_ESPNLeBrun

    Flames leaning right toward keeping No 6 pick. Had spoken to Boston (Seguin)… for now thinking they’ll keep pick. Could change of course

    Darren Dreger@DarrenDreger

    Canes have 2 firm offers and a 3rd nibbling on 5th overall. Toronto is out. Carolina may wait until 4th pick to make a deal.

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