A NEW WALKABOUT METRIC

In a conversation the other day between a bunch of us, Bruce McCurdy, Alice 13 and a few others were mulling the idea of setting a number–a line in the sand–to demonstrate walkabout selections inside the top 100 overall. Alice’s (I believe it was Alice) suggestion was 50% as a walkabout guideline.

  • alice13: A simple rule of thumb might be draft no, plus 50% Even works for the small no’s if you round up.

Let me show you how it looks for this past draft, using Derek Zona’s Top 100 Consensus list as a guideline.

OILERS 2013: SEARCHING FOR WALKABOUTS

  • Darnell Nurse at #7–He was consensus #8 on Zona’s list, so he would have been a walkabout selection #5 or higher. Nurse easily falls into “normal” range. It’s interesting how quickly players in this range (in this year) become ‘value’ picks, as Nichushkin at #10 (he was #5 Consensus) has been described as exceptional value.
  • Marc-Olivier Roy at #56–He was consensus #59 on the list, so he would have been a walkabout selection #39 or higher. Again Edmonton delivers a player in the range and Roy can be considered good value at his number.
  • Bogdan Yakimov at #83–Consensus #85, so he would have been a walkabout selection #57 or higher. Simply put, if the Oilers had taken Yakimov with the 2nd rounder they owned after Roy, he would have barely qualified as a normal selection. Right on the edge of walkabout. As it is, Yakimov is considered good value where he was taken.
  • Anton Slepyshev at #88–Consensus #68, so he would have been a walkabout pick at #45 or better. Slephyshev is an interesting selection, I wonder if the Oilers will attempt to find a way to get him over for the 2013-14 season. His numbers suggest he could probably push for an NHL job now.
  • Jackson Houck ar #94–Pronman at #91,  meaning he would have been walkabout at #61 or better. I’m using Pronman now because his list goes beyond #100, and since we don’t have Consensus #101 Pronman serves as a more than able fill-in.
  • Kyle Platzer at #96–Pronman at #151, meaning he was a walkabout selection, but barely (#101 outer marker).

Basically, the 2013 draft has one (narrow) walkabout in Platzer and the Chase selection makes up for it. I’ll run these numbers back a few seasons if we can agree this has value. Thoughts?

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72 Responses to "A NEW WALKABOUT METRIC"

  1. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    The virtue of Alice’s system is the simplicity of it. Whether it functions perfectly or not, it establishes a really solid IMO benchmark, which is easy to command.

    The benefit of the simplicity math-wise isn’t just that we can all figure it out without reaching for our abacus…. it is also that we can clearly notice when a pick is lingering just this side of “safe” or “out.” that’s going to help a lot, I think.

  2. böökje says:

    So, just to make it sound cool and enigmatic, can we call it their Alice Draft Number?

  3. Lowetide says:

    Something like that. The Alice 13?

  4. böökje says:

    So Roy’s walkabout number (ADN) was 39.

    There should be a name for going really late as well. Like the “Do my feet smell” number or something.

  5. SinceTheWHADays says:

    But the Oilers are listening to you all now so… There shouldn’t be anymore walk abouts. So perhaps this is an excersize in futility, or just plain irrelevant. No?

  6. SinceTheWHADays says:

    I guess what I’m trying to ask is this: does not the use of metrics, which is safe to say that MacT is now using, make a walkabout metric irrelevant?

  7. Lowetide says:

    SinceTheWHADays:
    But the Oilers are listening to you all now so… There shouldn’t be anymore walk abouts. So perhaps this is an excersize in futility, or just plain irrelevant.No?

    The Oilers aren’t listening to me now, they’re following MacT’s orders (that’s the only reason I can think of for the lack of strange third round behaviour).

    Besides, we must always be watchful. :-)

  8. 8p0intgame says:

    I am a bit late to the party, but did anyone else think “Are they planning on just putting 5 D-men on the ice against the other teams’ top lines?” when Grebs was signed?

  9. Lowetide says:

    SinceTheWHADays:
    I guess what I’m trying to ask is this: does not the use of metrics, which is safe to say that MacT is now using, make a walkabout metric irrelevant?

    No. Because we’ll check next year to see if they’re still following the rational path.

  10. böökje says:

    Lowetide: No. Because we’ll check next year to see if they’re still following the rational path.

    It’s useful on draft day. It’s a line in the sand to define crazy.

  11. SinceTheWHADays says:

    Lowetide,

    Roger.

  12. SinceTheWHADays says:

    Just curious. What the record for longest thread. Grebechov was loads of fun to read…for almost an hour.

  13. Lowetide says:

    The GDT’s can be over 600 comments long, that’s probably the record In there somewhere.

  14. theres oil in virginia says:

    8p0intgame:
    I am a bit late to the party, but did anyone else think “Are they planning on just putting 5 D-men on the ice against the other teams’ top lines?” when Grebs was signed?

    Five left-handed D-men!

  15. Roger Murdock says:

    SinceTheWHADays:
    Lowetide,

    Roger.

    Yes, what?

  16. bookje says:

    Lowetide,

    I am sure that some have gone over 800.

  17. SinceTheWHADays says:

    Roger Murdock,

    I now understand why LT wants a metric, not sure he needs one, but it helps to ridicule managment when they fall outside the numbers.

    Roger, over and out I heard and understand.

  18. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Roger Murdock: Yes, what?

    Surely you jest!

  19. SinceTheWHADays says:

    And…I’m slow on the uptake. But I make a good village idiot sometimes.

  20. "Steve Smith" says:

    Roger Murdock,

    “Aren’t you with the Lakers?” as Magic Johnson was once asked, while piloting an airplane.

    Also, I feel the urge to ask somebody for our vector.

  21. 8p0intgame says:

    theres oil in virginia: Five left-handed D-men!

    INNOVATION!!

  22. Kitchener says:

    Divide by 2, subtract 15.

    Wait, no. Divide by 2, add 7.

    All great rules have “divide by 2.” Bob & Doug, Heff…

    Change “50%” to “divide by 2″ and there’s a chance the new metric will stick.

  23. Lowetide says:

    Fucking Cloutier.

  24. slopitch says:

    I’m late to the Grebeshkov news. Nothing special but I like depth and competition.

    3 things left and MacT can go on deserved vacation:
    1) adequate return for Hemsky (a good 3rd line 2-way winger?)
    2) a 2 for 1 trade for d (lets say Coburn but there are options)
    3) Clifford or the remaining 3rd line spot

    Knowing the player and coach that MacT was, I cant see him being done up the middle either.

  25. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    8p0intgame: INNOVATION!!

    Add mexican wrestling masks! scare and confuse the opponent!

  26. Young Oil says:

    I apologize for being off topic, but is it possible that the Rangers would have interest in Hemsky @$2.5M? They seem to be in desperate need of a #2RW, Hemsky could be amazing with Nash, and they have some big bottom 6 forwards (Boyle, Kreider, Palmieri) that the Oilers could really use.

  27. Ryan says:

    Lowetide,

    I was talking with MacT the other day… He said the same thing as me… Favourite thing in the morning is a fresh cup of coffee and a fresh Lowetide thread.

  28. SinceTheWHADays says:

    Lowetide:
    Fucking Cloutier.

    Lmao. That whole thread was when I knew I was the village idiot.

  29. Lowetide says:

    SinceTheWHADays: Lmao. That whole thread was when I knew I was the village idiot.

    Ah, it’s all in fun. :-) The Cloutier thread was funny because I couldn’t figure out what the heck was going on! And I’m doing google searches to see if something is happening I don’t know about. Man. Funny stuff.

  30. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Young Oil:
    I apologize for being off topic, but is it possible that the Rangers would have interest in Hemsky @$2.5M? They seem to be in desperate need of a #2RW, Hemsky could be amazing with Nash, and they have some big bottom 6 forwards (Boyle, Kreider, Palmieri) that the Oilers could really use.

    Boyle would be a nice looking 4C.

    Someone thinks Kreider is the greatest ever…. but that doesn’t mean he isn’t pretty cool.

    trading with Slats though… hmmm… I don’t know if MacT is ready.

  31. bookje says:

    “Steve Smith”:
    Roger Murdock,

    “Aren’t you with the Lakers?” as Magic Johnson was once asked, while piloting an airplane.

    Also, I feel the urge to ask somebody for our vector.

    Surely you can’t be serious?

  32. Ripoux says:

    The only walkabout I know of is 1/2 your age + 7.

    Your mileage may vary.

  33. "Steve Smith" says:

    bookje: Surely you can’t be serious?

    It’s big building with patients, but that’s not important right now.

  34. Lowetide says:

    I’ve got to get to the Mayo clinic!

  35. bookje says:

    Lowetide:
    I’ve got to get to the Mayo clinic!

    Oh my, looks like I picked the wrong week to quit drinking.

  36. gogliano says:

    Who was that poster who kept talking about how teams don’t pay enough attention to their #7 and #8 dman? Point being that even dmen that are 7 or 8 on the depth chart are going to log a ton of minutes during a normal season, unlike your 16th forward. I remember he ran the numbers and the minutes logged differentials were drastic.

    I really like the Grebs move. No real cost to the team, it is a sign they are willing to look for value in underexplored areas, and it adds depth and flexibility. If they do trade a dman they are better of trading from a position of strength than weakness. And if they don’t’ they only have good problems going forward.

    Whoever that poster was he always made a ton of sense to me. Guess MacT read that one with his morning coffee.

  37. Young Oil says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: Boyle would be a nice looking 4C.

    Someone thinks Kreider is the greatest ever…. but that doesn’t mean he isn’t pretty cool.

    trading with Slats though… hmmm… I don’t know if MacT is ready.

    Well I know the Rangers are a bit against the cap, so they wouldn’t want to give up contracts, or take on salary. Maybe something like Hemsky and Potter at half price and a middling prospect (Pitlick?) for Boyle, Kreider, and Palmieri? I’m not sure if Palmieri is an RFA or UFA, TSN and Capgeek say different things, but I think he is a solid 4/5 RW, with 25 points in 87 games, and has size.

    If Musil/Gernat and a 2014 3rd/2015 2nd for Clifford is possible like some are suggesting, that would be incredible.

    That gives us a bottom 6 of:

    Gordon-Clifford-Jones
    Boyle-Kreider-Palmieri

    With Smyth, Lander, Brown, and Joensuu all fighting to be in the lineup. That creates competition in all positions, rather than Smyth, Jones, and Lander being given opening night spots.

  38. SpotTheLoon says:

    Roger, Roger. What’s your vector, Victor? You have clearance, Clarance . . . Huh?

    Looks like I picked the wrong week to quit sniffing glue.

  39. Dead Cat Bounce says:

    Ryan:
    Lowetide,

    I was talking with MacT the other day…He said the same thing as me…Favourite thing in the morning is a fresh cup of coffee and a fresh Lowetide thread.

    I like a smoke, a cup of Joe, a big dump and then LT.

    Does that make me a bad person?

  40. SinceTheWHADays says:

    SpotTheLoon,

    Surely Shirley this is Major Major Major.

  41. 8p0intgame says:

    Romulus Apotheosis,

    Don’t forget having them position themselves like this (o’s are the Oilers, x’s are the opposition):

    –x—x–
    -x–x–x-
    —o——
    ——-o–
    —o——
    ——-o–
    —o——

  42. RexLibris says:

    I’ve always said that the LT blog is one of the smartest places on the internet.

    The random quotes from Airplane have served only to strengthen this belief.

    Now I wait for someone to link this crowd to “drinking problems”.

  43. Dead Cat Bounce says:

    RexLibris:
    I’ve always said that the LT blog is one of the smartest places on the internet.

    The random quotes from Airplane have served only to strengthen this belief.

    Now I wait for someone to link this crowd to “drinking problems”.

    Here ya go:

    http://youtu.be/p21wCDKmEnk

  44. Professor Q says:

    bookje,

    Over 9000?

  45. 8p0intgame says:

    Professor Q,

    Dragonball Z references? Really?

  46. Lowetide says:

    Hahaaa, DSF. Great cat video.

  47. "Steve Smith" says:

    Is it wrong of me to prefer The Naked Gun to Airplane!? Leslie Nielsen is, by far, the best part of each movie, and there’s much more of him in the former.

    (In Airplane!, Lloyd Bridges falls somewhat short of Nielsen and Robert Stack in the category of dramatic actors deadpanning hilariously, but he made up for it in Hot Shots.)

  48. Ryan says:

    gogliano,

    lol. I agree with you except the thing about Grebs is that if he doesn’t make the team and get regular minutes, he’s obviously going to head back to the KHL. Either way, I think it’s a low risk signing. If he pushes someone down, great. If he can’t crack the top six, then he’s gone along with presumably his cap hit.

  49. Ryan says:

    Dead Cat Bounce: I like a smoke, a cup of Joe, a big dump and then LT.

    Does that make me a bad person?

    Sounds about right, lol.

  50. Lowetide says:

    “Steve Smith”:
    Is it wrong of me to prefer The Naked Gun to Airplane!?Leslie Nielsen is, by far, the best part of each movie, and there’s much more of him in the former.

    (In Airplane!, Lloyd Bridges falls somewhat short of Nielsen and Robert Stack in the category of dramatic actors deadpanning hilariously, but he made up for it in Hot Shots.)

    Bridges let his eyebrows do the work.

  51. Ducey says:

    Dead Cat Bounce: I like a smoke, a cup of Joe, a big dump and then LT.

    Does that make me a bad person?

    Having read some of your posts, I think that sometimes you get the last two mixed up.

  52. Ducey says:

    8p0intgame:
    I am a bit late to the party, but did anyone else think “Are they planning on just putting 5 D-men on the ice against the other teams’ top lines?” when Grebs was signed?

    I was looking forward to LT doing some analysis on the tightness of Potter’s sphincter.

  53. Lowetide says:

    Ducey: Having read some of your posts, I think that sometimes you get the last two mixed up.

    I’ve been giggling for a few minutes over this one.

  54. dangilitis says:

    I just wanted to throw this out there – I posted this 3 months ago and interesting to look back now. I know this is your blog, LT, and that you mentioned you assume we are wrong until proven otherwise, but there is some similarities to what you and I suggested and what MacT has done, as well as some moves I never would have endorsed (e.g. Clarkson even being offered a contract). But the end result is pretty close to what we have all wanted, myself included. Exciting stuff!

    If you get bored, scroll down to option 2, similar in many ways to the framework that we have at present to use to bring home a winner (winner=playoffs – baby steps).
    1) 3rd and 4th lines still leave me wanting a lot. I love Hemsky (hence the case of dangilitis) but still think he does not fit into the teams plans so will either be gone now or at deadline. If it is at the deadline, we need a back up plan, so I am hoping the trade gets done over summer so they can prepare for the entire year and future without #83. Although Clifford would = sandpaper forward, and Jonesuu = Harski? Not ideal, so still hoping for a 3rd line reshuffle and Hemsky could get it done. I saw Lander in 4th line C but could also stand to see another C. Smyth and Jones are average or better 4th liners.
    How MacT turns Hemsky into an NHL player and grabs another 3rd or 4th liner from a cash-strapped or cap-strapped team is crucial. And not getting these done is not necessarily MacT’s fault if the deals aren’t there, its just unfathomable if this team wants to get into the playoffs.
    2) Ference is not my choice but same family as Scuderi. We aren’t grabbing a legitimate top 2 Dman over the summer without overpaying. If you compare my anticipated bottom 2 with what we have at present, I think any of Grebs, Belov, N Schultz or Larssen may be an upgrade on a young Klefbom, and we have lots of bets made to ensure one does. But that top 4 Dman is still needed to really make a strong 5-6. Again, one of those 4 could also make a bet and provide a real top 4 performance (best bet goes to the Russians), but that’s 2 bets now and that’s where crucial bit number 2 is needed: The 2 for 1, for another legitimate 2nd pairing Dman – giving you a total of 5 on one team (Smid, Petry, J Schultz, Ference, Mr. X) + Belov, Grebs sticking with the club in 6/7 role and a good chance at three legitimate 2nd pairing lines.

    dangilitis says:
    April 21, 2013 at 3:53 pm

    “I just wanted to address this point because the cap is not comin’g into the equation when we look forward at what to do. The Oilers have plenty of needs but the young guys are not cheap. ELC are expensive for the 1st round talents, and we have a lot of them….

    A lot of people were suggesting a Lucic for Hemsky deal, which I doubt would ever happen …Slot Lucic in instead of Hemsky, and add another ELC of a 1st round draft pick. Say this 1st round draft pick is a forward, which it may very well be.

    Nuge-Hall-Eberle: 3.775-6-6 = 15.775
    Gagner-Lucic-Yakupov: 4.5(est)-6-3.775 = 14.275
    Horcoff-ELC-MPS: 5.5-3.775-2(est) = 11.275
    Smyth-Hartik-4th liner: 2.25-1.5(est)-1 = 4.75

    …. this will cost an eye-popping 46.1 million!!!!

    So, no, Lucic is exactly the player that could cost this franchise more years of cap grief (worse than Horcoff), and will not earn even half his salary. Ditto for Clarkson.”

    IS THAT FORESHADOWING? Yeesh, still not pleased about the Clarkson. We got about as lucky with this one as the Nylander and Vanek deals…

    “Winnik would have been a great fit, as LT suggested in the off season. I wonder how much Clowe or Morrow will go for on the UFA market? Jagr?”

    ANSWERS: Obviously we could have used Winnik, Way yoo much, and Senior’s discount for both?

    “In my opinion, Horcoff has to go this summer, no matter how much he has meant to us for a 10 game stretch this year. If you use the compliance buyout on him, then you can… sign a 3rd line veteran center UFA.”

    DONE AND DONE, and wow on not using the compliance option on him

    “Then you have one more compliance buyout option, and that goes to either Belanger or Smytty.”

    YUP, and definitely better spent on Belanger

    “To bring this point home, in the scenario above… D is our weakest link, and we wouldn’t even have enough money to afford a bottom paring. If the Oilers D is going to be competitive without a #1 man, they need to do it by committee with 5-6 legitimate top 4 D-men sharing time. To accomplish this, we need to draft and develop and/or pick the UFA talent, and shed cap room.”

    STILL FEEL THIS IS THE ONLY WAY TO GET INTO THE PLAYOFFS. I think another top 4 D man is well within reach, but our only shots at top 2 Dmen come from within (Petry, Klefbom, Nurse, or J Schultz), they will not be coming over the summer.

    “Option 1: Hemsky trade for D-man (or trade for a 2013 draft pick and buy a UFA D-man), draft a forward 1st round, replace Horcoff with a cheaper Horcoff or alternate (B Morrow?), buyout Smytty and waive Belanger”

    DID NOT OPT this way (and I am a little glad, although I still Nichushkin could step in right away and that would have solved a problem, we really need a homegrown top 2 and Nurse and Klefbom/J Schultz are my hopes)

    “Option 2: Draft D-man 1st round to mature for a year in AHL, trade Hemsky for sandpaper forward to fill 3rd line role (+ hopefully a draft pick), sign top 4 Dman in off season (Scuderi?), replace Horcoff with a cheaper Horcoff or alternate… buyout Smytty and waive Belanger. Then dangle N Schultz and a 2nd round pick for an upgrade on defence (e.g. for another legitimate top 4 D), or trade Schultz for a draft pick (3.5 is too much for a bottom pair role) and sign another top 4 D-man (Streit?)

    “Nuge-Hall-Eberle: 3.775-6-6 = 15.775
    Gagner-MPS-Yakupov: 4.5(est)-2.5(est)-3.775 = 11.775
    Horcoff replacement-Harti-”Sandpaper forward”: 2.5-1.5-2.5 = 6.5
    Lander-4th liner-4th liner: 1.2(est)-1.2(est)-1 = 3.4
    Total = 37.5 mil

    Smid-Petry: 5.25
    J Schultz – Legitimate Top 4 Dman (est 3.5): 7.225
    top 4 Dman (est 4) – Klefbom (est 2): 6
    Total = 18.5

    Dubnyk-Back up: estimated 5 mil

    Total = 61 million”
    Bottom line, as much as I like Hemmer and Horcoff, we can no longer afford to pay them 1st-2nd line salaries for 3rd line roles. Starting this summer”

  55. Lowetide says:

    Dangilitis: Interest post. I think you made several very good points, the major one now is MacT turning Hemsky into something useful. Otherwise, keep him (but then the next ? is where do you play him?).

  56. bookje says:

    “Steve Smith”:
    Is it wrong of me to prefer The Naked Gun to Airplane!?Leslie Nielsen is, by far, the best part of each movie, and there’s much more of him in the former.

    (In Airplane!, Lloyd Bridges falls somewhat short of Nielsen and Robert Stack in the category of dramatic actors deadpanning hilariously, but he made up for it in Hot Shots.)

    You can enjoy the Naked Gun more, but you have to appreciate Airplane more…

  57. Ribs says:

    Lowetide: Interest post. I think you made several very good points, the major one now is MacT turning Hemsky into something useful

    He’s finally going to turn Hemsky into a checker. For real this time. Can’t wait. *sad face*

  58. admiralmark says:

    Ducey: Having read some of your posts, I think that sometimes you get the last two mixed up.

    Thats Gold Jerry! Gold!

  59. Lowetide says:

    Ribs: He’s finally going to turn Hemsky into a checker. For real this time. Can’t wait. *sad face*

    Yeah. Gordon-Pisani-Hemsky would have worked, though.

  60. bookje says:

    Lowetide:
    Dangilitis: Interest post. I think you made several very good points, the major one now is MacT turning Hemsky into something useful. Otherwise, keep him (but then the next ? is where do you play him?).

    Dallas will fix him! As in the coach, not the other team, the Dallas stars, the coach Dallas Eakins (Damn, this was easier when Ralph was around!).

  61. justDOit says:

    bookje,

    Although I think Horcoff might know a thing or two about shutting down Hemmer.

  62. maudite says:

    Duschene @ 6 mil per
    Filipula @ 5+ mil per

    Gagner is not coming in under 5 mil even on an arbitration deal…

    The value loss of that last contract is going to hurt sooo bad. At best, you can maybe hope to draw on his deal. Definitely will be a stretch to see getting a contract inked that he will outperform. Ugh.

  63. Woodguy says:

    gogliano,

    Who was that poster who kept talking about how teams don’t pay enough attention to their #7 and #8 dman? Point being that even dmen that are 7 or 8 on the depth chart are going to log a ton of minutes during a normal season, unlike your 16th forward. I remember he ran the numbers and the minutes logged differentials were drastic.

    Pretty sure that was Knighttown.

    I think he showed that your 7 and 8 Dmen will play more minutes in a year than your 8-12 forwards

  64. Dominoiler says:

    “Steve Smith”:
    Roger Murdock,

    “Aren’t you with the Lakers?” as Magic Johnson was once asked, while piloting an airplane.

    Also, I feel the urge to ask somebody for our vector.

    Salivating at the opportunity to correct you, so instead of taking the high road.. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar was that laker.. but I have to say, nice reference to the name Robert Murdoch.. that’s beyond my memory’s capability..

  65. Ryan says:

    Tencer who probably hears things off the record, said something about $5m x 4 years yesterday. That sounds like what they’re hoping to get Gagner to sign. Obviously Mact was probably targeting a lower number before…

    Tencer said something about how he’d wince at signing Gagner at over $5m per year. I would too but the fact Tencer said it could mean more than hearing it from one of the regulars here. If Gagner won’t sign at $5m or below, we could see some fireworks if I have any ability to read between the lines.

    My fearless prediction is that Mact blinks and signs Gagner at $5.5m x 4 years. ouch.

    Gagner’s GF is going to be in Edmonton for the next two years, so that’s about the only leverage Mact has with him.

    maudite:
    Duschene @ 6 mil per
    Filipula @ 5+ mil per

    Gagner is not coming in under 5 mil even on an arbitration deal…

    The value loss of that last contract is going to hurt sooo bad.At best, you can maybe hope to draw on his deal.Definitely will be a stretch to see getting a contract inked that he will outperform.Ugh.

  66. Ryan says:

    Proof that Mact reads Lowetide (if there was any doubt):

    http://lowetide.ca/blog/2013/05/blasts-from-the-past.html

    Seriously though, when Bob Stauffer’s continually citing MC79hockey, we know that the Oligosphere has real influence with org. Crazy how the world changes, isn’t it?

  67. "Steve Smith" says:

    Dominoiler,

    I know that.

  68. theres oil in virginia says:

    “Steve Smith”,
    Apparently, he’s not familiar with the real “Steve Smith”.

  69. "Steve Smith" says:

    theres oil in virginia,

    Neither am I; my name is Roger. I’m a co-pilot.

    (He can be forgiven, though; I only try during the playoffs.)

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