A TRIP TO REASONABLE

Each summer, I attempt to find a reasonable expectation for each Edmonton Oiler roster player. The line I’m looking for is right in the middle, with ‘that’s idiotic’ and ‘why do you hate him’ as the far markers on each side. It’s tough to determine for the Oilers, because they keep changing coaching staffs and trading off players and on and on.

A year ago, I projected the Oilers to use 25 skaters. Here’s the RE from August 2012:

PROJECTED ‘RE’ SCORING 2012-13

NAME G A PTS +/-
TAYLOR HALL 66 35 32 67 +14
RYAN NUGENT HOPKINS 72 22 45 67 +15
JORDAN EBERLE 75 24 31 55 -21
SAM GAGNER  74 19 36 55 +8
ALES HEMSKY 60 14 40 54 +18
NAIL YAKUPOV 77 18 26 44 Nil
RYAN SMYTH 69 16 22 38 -8
JEFF PETRY 72 4 25 29 +4
RYAN WHITNEY  65 4 24 28 +8
SHAWN HORCOFF 75 11 16 27 -7
JUSTIN SCHULTZ 75 7 19 26 nil
MAGNUS PAAJARVI  67 5 16 21 +13
RYAN JONES 70 12 8 20 -13
ERIC BELANGER 77, 10 10 20 +4
TEEMU HARTIKAINEN 50 9 8 17 +12
LADISLAV SMID 72 2 8 10 -5
NICK SCHULTZ 79 1 9 10 +3
BEN EAGER 50 4 4 8 -5
LENNART PETRELL 53 4 4 8 -1
THEO PECKHAM 55 1 5 6 +3
ANDY SUTTON 52 2 2 4 -6
DARCY HORDICHUK  44 0 2 2 -1
COREY POTTER 16 0 2 2 -19
TAYLOR FEDUN 6 0 0 0 nil
COLTEN TEUBERT 5 0 0 0 nil
TOTAL 224 394 618

I predicted 25 position players in an 82 game season, Oilers used 28 in a 48 game season. I predicted 224 goals in 82 games (2.73 per game) and they scored 123 goals in 48 games (2.56 per game). I predicted Taylor Hall would lead the team in points and he did (he scored 1.11 points-per-game and I predicted 1.015).

azorcan

THE 2013-14 EDITION

We’ll start with the predicted opening night lineup:

  • Center: Sam Gagner, Mark Arcobello, Boyd Gordon, Anton Lander
  • Left Wing: Taylor Hall, David Perron, Ryan Smyth, Jesse Joensuu
  • Right Wing: Jordan Eberle, Nail Yakupov, Ales Hemsky, Ryan Jones, Mike Brown
  • Left Defense: Ladislav Smid, Andrew Ference, Nick Schultz, Anton Belov
  • Right Defense: Jeff Petry, Justin Schultz, Denis Grebeshkov, Phil Larsen
  • Goaltenders: Devan Dubnyk, Jason LaBarbera

Ryan Nugent-Hopkins will miss some games and of course there will be callups–a plethora of callups:

  • Center: Will Acton, Andrew Miller
  • Left Wing: Ryan Hamilton, Ben Eager
  • Right Wing: Toni Rajala
  • Defense: Oscar Klefbom, Martin Marincin
  • Goaltender: Richard Bachman

A 23-man roster will have 9 additions for 32–and Corey Potter would have been a part of it but I don’t think he clears waivers. Tomorrow morning: RE begins with the top scorer.

REVISED RE PROJECTIONS AND ACTUAL FACTUAL

  1. Taylor Hall 39, 21-19-40 (actual 45, 16-34-50)
  2. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins 42, 13-26-39 (actual 40, 4-20-24)
  3. Jordan Eberle 44, 14-18-32 (actual 48, 16-21-37)
  4. Sam Gagner 43, 11-21-32 (actual 48, 14-24-38)
  5. Ales Hemsky 35, 8-24-32 (actual 38, 9-11-20)
  6. Nail Yakupov 45, 11-15-26 (actual 48, 17-14-31)
  7. Ryan Smyth 40, 9-13-22 (actual 47, 2-11-13)
  8. Shawn Horcoff 44, 6-10-16 (actual 31, 7-5-12)
  9. Jeff Petry 42, 2-15-17 (actual 48, 3-9-12)
  10. Ryan Whitney 39, 2-15-17 (actual 34, 4-9-13)
  11. Justin Schultz 44, 4-11-15 (actual 48, 8-19-27)

I’ll count Hall, Eberle, Gagner, Whitney and Horcoff as close enough for jazz; Nuge, Hemsky, Smyth and Petry as guys who under performed the estimates; Yakupov and Schultz were better than I predicted offensively. Fair?

 SCOTT CULLEN, TSN

The best I’ve found at projecting season over season is Scott Cullen from tsn. Here’s a quick look at the Oilers predictions from last season:

  1. Taylor Hall predicted .77 points per game/Hall delivered 1.11
  2. Sam Gagner .62/.79
  3. Jordan Eberle .77/.77
  4. Nail Yakupov .67/.65
  5. Justin Schultz .61/.56
  6. Shawn Horcoff .48/.39
  7. Ryan Whitney .53/.38
  8. Ales Hemsky .74/.53
  9. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins .84/.60
  10. Ryan Smyth .52/.28

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

LYNDON

 This morning at 10 on Team 1260, it’s hockey and football. Scheduled to appear:

  • Scott Taylor from the huddle dot co. Oilers, Jets, Blue Bombers, Eskimos, and terrible horrible things about the Saskatchewan Roughriders. 
  • Andrew Bucholtz from Yahoo’s 55 Yard Line. More stuff on the CFL, especially the start by the western teams not named the Eskimos and I’ll ask Andrew if this is the beginning of the fall for the Montreal Alouettes.
  • Scott Cullen from tsn. We’ll talk about the value exchange of the Perron/Paajarvi deal, projecting these young Oilers into the future and some Blue Jays talk.

@Lowetide_ on twitter or text to 10-1260. I’m working on some other items, really looking forward to today’s show. Hope you can tune in!

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69 Responses to "A TRIP TO REASONABLE"

  1. BlacqueJacque says:

    You have Ebs at -21 and his perpetual linemate/life partner Nuge at +15?

  2. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    I just re-watched Barry Lyndon this week oddly enough. I won’t drag us back into another Kubrick debate, but I will note that O’Neal’s Irish accent needed work.

    ——–
    “Nick Schultz, Anton Belov”

    I keep telling you it’s the other way around.

    “Corey Potter would have been a part of it but I don’t think he clears waivers.”

    any chance they move him, maybe as part of a package? The right side is a little thin, I think offloading N. Schultz still makes a lot more sense than Potter.

    ——-
    Ask Cullen about the Russian Ds and if he has any thoughts on NHL equivalencies, esp. re: KHL. Or, simply, what does he use to project players from other leagues coming into the NHL for the first time?

  3. Lowetide says:

    BlacqueJacque:
    You have Ebs at -21 and his perpetual linemate/life partner Nuge at +15?

    That was the point increase projected season over season. I projected Eberle to slide and got all kinds of hell for it, although Dellow took the major hits over shooting percentage.

  4. Lowetide says:

    Rom: I think it’s important to start where things reasonably sit. I agree Belov has the potential to take over from N Schultz but that isn’t established yet. If Belov should win that job, that’s a definite good arrow, not something you can assume.

  5. Captain Smarmy says:

    Oh man the thought of you praising the green machine and all it’s awesomeness for a chunk of your show makes me wish I could listen in.

    Probably good for ratings though maybe I’ll send in a suggestion that you always do a segment on the Riders.

    ” The Lowetide Show! Sky of blue sea of Green! Here to talk about all things Riders.”

  6. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Lowetide:
    Rom: I think it’s important to start where things reasonably sit. I agree Belov has the potential to take over from N Schultz but that isn’t established yet. If Belov should win that job, that’s a definite good arrow, not something you can assume.

    I’ll never get back to reasonable on Belov. He’s going to be a star for us.

    We are going to love his passing out of the zone. The rest of the Oiler fans are going to love his violence.

    ——-

    Isn’t Grebs on the left side?

  7. Ca$h-Money! says:

    This is my favorite series of the whole year, thank you for doing it.

    That said, I never envy you. Trying to combine “reasonable” with “the internet” seems like an impossible task.

  8. Jesse says:

    Off topic (apologies), but yesterday there was a call in to Stauffer’s radio show who basically tore apart the line of thinking that the Oilers are good to go in the bottom six. I think his name might have been Doug — not sure — but he cited WOWY numbers, mentioned Copper n Blue, and mentioned that Lennert Petrell was the worst possession player in the league. I was just wondering if he’s one of the commenters on this blog because it was just fantastic.

  9. Bar_Qu says:

    Ca$h-Money!:
    This is my favorite series of the whole year, thank you for doing it.

    That said, I never envy you.Trying to combine “reasonable” with “the internet” seems like an impossible task.

    What this guy said.

    The flack over the Eberle thing last year was hilarious. I had high hopes for him again this season, but I certainly understood the rationale for tempering expectations with some reality. I hope he improves again this season (there is every reason to think that is possible, playing with Hall-does Hall even have a ceiling?), but at a certain point there is what is hoped for versus what is reasonable to expect.

  10. linkfromhyrule says:

    so THIS is what everyone has been talking about… I was wondering what RE was. I get the feeling that no matter what you say, you’re gonna take flak for it. Unfortunately, “reasonable” is incredibly subjective, especially when it comes to the internet. That said I’m looking forward to this!

  11. Zipdot says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: I’ll never get back to reasonable on Belov. He’s going to be a star for us.

    We are going to love his passing out of the zone. The rest of the Oiler fans are going to love his violence.

    Every year, I get really excited about one or two pickups or draft picks. Tyler Pitlick really broke my heart. Anyway, this year it is Belov without a doubt. I have a gut feeling that wasn’t there with Pitlick. So that must mean…… BELOV 2014 LEGIT, BOOK IT

  12. Zipdot says:

    linkfromhyrule: I was wondering what RE was. I get the feeling that no matter what you say, you’re gonna take flak for it. Unfortunately, “reasonable” is incredibly subjective, especially when it comes to the internet.

    Nah, not usually. The Eberle RE last year was an exception. Usually, as you can see from this post, Lowetide is in the ballpark, so there’s not much to take issue with, except for the most dedicated trolls.

    RE is fun but at one post per day, it can really drag on. But that’s what summer is for, and God knows there are other pages on the Internet.

  13. czar says:

    Romulus Apotheosis,
    The violence will make him a fan fav within a month.

  14. Jesse says:

    I should also metion that I’ve been greatly looking forward to this series this year. Thanks for all the hard work LT!

  15. uni says:

    I was hoping that Paul Ranger would saunter over to Edmonton with his friendly 1y @ 1m and solidify the Edmonton D. If he does indeed regain form, it would be nice to have a top 6 with 5 players capable of slotting into the top 5, with a very good pair for 6th D.

    Also would have freed up N. Schultz for a possible move to shore up the C position. If Belov emerges as legit top 4 option all the merrier.

    Toronto’s defence looks pretty good, and I guess Gunnarsson isn’t going anywhere with that nice contract. Looks like Liles is on the out.

  16. Ivan says:

    LT, I must agree with Ca$h-Money- this it the most-anticipated series of the year. Except maybe the draft stuff. Or the Baron’s reports. Or the top 30. Or maybe the music series.

    OK, OK- it’s ALL great. Period. As fans of this game and this team, we simply get the best articles and discussion on the Ol’ Al Gore. And we’re damn blessed to have it. Thanks are not enough.

  17. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    uni:
    I was hoping that Paul Ranger would saunter over to Edmonton with his friendly 1y @ 1m and solidify the Edmonton D.If he does indeed regain form, it would be nice to have a top 6 with 5 players capable of slotting into the top 5, with a very good pair for 6th D.

    Also would have freed up N. Schultz for a possible move to shore up the C position. If Belov emerges as legit top 4 option all the merrier.

    Toronto’s defence looks pretty good, and I guess Gunnarsson isn’t going anywhere with that nice contract.Looks like Liles is on the out.

    The timing is interesting.

    It seems pretty clear with the Grebs signing that one of two things (probably) happened.

    1) The Oilers pitched to Ranger and he opted for Toronto, so the Oil went with Grebs as a back up while Ranger sorted out the details with Nonis

    2) The Oilers chose Grebs over Ranger, so Ranger stayed put.

    They are both LD projected to start at the bottom of an NHL roster with a potential to slide up.

    ——-

    I don’t think Gunnarsson was going anywhere without a huge overpay. In-house RFA options that can play are highly valuable, esp. to river boat gambler GMs like Nonis.

    It’s a good lesson for those eager to sell off Marincin on the cheap.

  18. kooler says:

    Looks like ranger signed with TO. 1 yr. 1 million. Too bad.

  19. BlacqueJacque says:

    Lowetide,

    Oh duh. My bad.

  20. G Money says:

    BlacqueJacque:
    Lowetide,

    Oh duh.My bad.

    Speaks to the importance of good headers. LT used “+-” which, since it has a well defined meaning already, is bound to cause confusion when it is used to represent something different.

    In the business world, the header probably would have been YoY (year on year), which when combined with a series of positive and negative numbers, would have been at least a little more clear that it represented a yearly change rather than on-ice +-.

    That nitpick aside, I will add my voice to the chorus looking forward to the REs, especially as it represents a golden opportunity to overuse the ‘why do you hate’ meme!

  21. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Edmonton Oilers ✔ @EdmontonOilers
    #Oilers have agreed to terms with 2013 first-round draft pick Darnell Nurse (@drtwofive) on a three-year entry-level contract.

  22. Truth Movement says:

    What’s better, Lowetide’s RE series or Copper And Blue’s Top 25 Under 25 series?

  23. RexLibris says:

    Romulus Apotheosis:
    Edmonton Oilers✔ @EdmontonOilers
    #Oilers have agreed to terms with 2013 first-round draft pick Darnell Nurse (@drtwofive) on a three-year entry-level contract.

    This signifies to me that MacTavish is more or less done on the contract end of things. Priority-wise, Nurse was at the bottom of the list.

    The only thing that may yet happen, imo, is this alleged Clifford deal. Otherwise, (and putting aside any big surprises during the second buyout period) I think we are looking at the end of this summer’s big moves.

  24. Tarkus says:

    The guy wearing a Team Canada jersey in the photo at top isn’t actually expressing his disapproval of Ebs, but rather foretelling the direction in which the Canucks will be headed this season.

    Steckel for 4C please.

  25. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    RexLibris: This signifies to me that MacTavish is more or less done on the contract end of things. Priority-wise, Nurse was at the bottom of the list.

    The only thing that may yet happen, imo, is this alleged Clifford deal. Otherwise, (and putting aside any big surprises during the second buyout period) I think we are looking at the end of this summer’s big moves.

    Possible moves:

    Something with Hemsky (Smith?)
    Something with N. Schultz
    Something for Clifford
    Something for the 4C
    Camp Invites

    I think these are all middlingly possible events before puck drop game 1.

  26. speeds says:

    RexLibris,

    I’m not sure it really signifies all that much – it was likely a relatively easy thing to negotiate,and there are multiple people in management.

  27. Zipdot says:

    Truth Movement: What’s better, Lowetide’s RE series or Copper And Blue’s Top 25 Under 25 series?

    They’re probably comparable. The Lowetide RE series, and LT posts in general, seems to rehash/copy-and-paste/recycle/reuse material more than other blogs. Like how many times have we seen Lowetide’s MacTavish list this summer? Probably about 20 times or more… LT’s quoted scouting reports also are pasted and pasted and pasted until we know all of them by heart. If I had one nitpick, it would be “please recycle less”. And please let some of the more tedious home brewed memes die (“why do you hate X?” is sooooo dead horse).

  28. Obiwan Eberle says:

    LT, can you give us a preview of the title for tomorrow?

    my 2 cents “V for Vendetta”…after the Ovenchicken incident….Hall prepping to give the masses fireworks they’ll never forget

  29. Zipdot says:

    RexLibris: This signifies to me that MacTavish is more or less done on the contract end of things. Priority-wise, Nurse was at the bottom of the list.

    Disagree. Remember last summer when we all freaked out because Yak City took too long to sign and we thought he might bail on us? The comment from the Oilers was that the clerical guy was back from vacation. Probably the same thing this year. I don’t think it has much/anything to do with MacTavish’s priorities. Lol.

  30. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Zipdot: They’re probably comparable.The Lowetide RE series, and LT posts in general, seems to rehash/copy-and-paste/recycle/reuse material more than other blogs.Like how many times have we seen Lowetide’s MacTavish list this summer?Probably about 20 times or more…LT’s quoted scouting reports also are pasted and pasted and pasted until we know all of them by heart.If I had one nitpick, it would be “please recycle less”.And please let some of the more tedious home brewed memes die (“why do you hate X?” is sooooo dead horse).

    I’m going to disagree on both parts, respectfully.

    I like the repetition in each post because it saves me from having to back-track and find what we are all referring to and adding a bunch of links would be more tedious to me.

    It also creates a sense of continuity to our conversation… as does the little idioms (“your mileage may vary” etc.)

  31. linkfromhyrule says:

    Zipdot: They’re probably comparable.The Lowetide RE series, and LT posts in general, seems to rehash/copy-and-paste/recycle/reuse material more than other blogs.Like how many times have we seen Lowetide’s MacTavish list this summer?Probably about 20 times or more…LT’s quoted scouting reports also are pasted and pasted and pasted until we know all of them by heart.If I had one nitpick, it would be “please recycle less”.And please let some of the more tedious home brewed memes die (“why do you hate X?” is sooooo dead horse).

    I hope you’re now taking this opportunity to announce your own blog in which you post all original stuff all the time, never without influence from another site or previous post. Dude…..

  32. Ca$h-Money! says:

    linkfromhyrule,

    Well said.

  33. Vaclav says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: Possible moves:

    Something with Hemsky (Smith?)
    Something with N. Schultz
    Something for Clifford
    Something for the 4C
    Camp Invites

    I think these are all middlingly possible events before puck drop game 1.

    I don’t see the Hemsky for Smith trade happening anymore (after Ott traded for Ryan) with Melnyk’s self-imposed team UCL. I also don’t see a Kyle Clifford trade unless he’s asking for the moon. The $3.5M in relief they’ll get once Mitchell goes on the LTIR will be ample space to re-sign Clifford.and have some spending money for mid-season tinkering.

  34. G Money says:

    linkfromhyrule: I hope you’re now taking this opportunity to announce your own blog in which you post all original stuff all the time, never without influence from another site or previous post. Dude…..

    And please make sure to ban the use of memes from the comment threads on that blog, because you wouldn’t want your readers to have, you know, like, all that tedious fun …

  35. GordM says:

    Grabovski down to three teams as per TSN/Ward:

    http://www.tsn.ca/nhl/story/?id=428410

    Based on MacT’s comments I guess the Oilers aren’t in the mix. Very interested to see what $s/Term he garners.

  36. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    GordM: http://www.tsn.ca/nhl/story/?id=428410

    weren’t the caps (lost ribero), flames and panthers (lost weise) the teams bandied about?

  37. commonfan14 says:

    Vaclav,

    Yeah – would have been nice if they’d made that Hemsky contract hilariously back-diving while it was still legal. He could have been really attractive to cash-strapped teams.

    That said, I’m fine with having him back rather than trading him for almost nothing just to turn things over.

    Maybe (ie: probably/almost certainly) he’ll get injured before the deadline, and then maybe that’ll get him worried about security enough that and he’ll forego free agency and sign a long-term cap friendly deal.

    Someone has to spend his whole career as an Oiler eventually, right?

  38. commonfan14 says:

    G Money: linkfromhyrule: I hope you’re now taking this opportunity to announce your own blog in which you post all original stuff all the time, never without influence from another site or previous post. Dude…..
    And please make sure to ban the use of memes from the comment threads on that blog, because you wouldn’t want your readers to have, you know, like, all that tedious fun …

    Cloutier endorses this whole-heartedly.

  39. linkfromhyrule says:

    commonfan14: Cloutier endorses this whole-heartedly.

    lol Cloutier!! *shakes fist*

  40. Zipdot says:

    Mild criticism is all. No need to antagonize.

    Romulus Apotheosis: I like the repetition in each post because it saves me from having to back-track and find what we are all referring to and adding a bunch of links would be more tedious to me.

    Totally. I realize that I do appreciate this aspect of it. I don’t use the Search feature much because of this.

    linkfromhyrule: I hope you’re now taking this opportunity to announce your own blog in which you post all original stuff all the time, never without influence from another site or previous post. Dude…..

    Let’s agree to disagree.

  41. Zipdot says:

    In the thread photo, the dad has his thumb down, but the kid is in total awe of the amazing Oilers, lol!

  42. G Money says:

    commonfan14: Maybe (ie: probably/almost certainly) he’ll get injured before the deadline, and then maybe that’ll get him worried about security enough that and he’ll forego free agency and sign a long-term cap friendly deal.

    You know, most knowledgeable folks I know who follow the Oilers are Hemsky fans. Despite the noise about how bad he is – where this comes from seems to stem from his last two injury hampered seasons where he put up “only” 0.71ppg – the fact is that from 2005 to 2011, he put up 331 pts in 360 games. That’s 0.92 ppg – an elite level of scoring as most acknowledge.

    I also accept that the last two seasons are hopefully anomalies in that the first was put off by a long standing shoulder injury (as in the long standing aftermath of repeated “skate into the corner and get picked up and thrown into the boards face first by Regehr while the refs are distracted WWE-style by the blonde in the first row”) and the second by what can legitimately be called a bad luck injury (broken bone from shot blocking).

    But really … if he can’t put something close to a full Hemsky season (70+ games, 60+ pts) in next year, why would we resign him? I think despite his having been for many years the only bright spot on many putrid Oiler teams, it would be time to say goodbye – if he isn’t already gone this summer.

    EDIT: which will make the RE for Hemsky this year a particularly interesting exercise.

  43. linkfromhyrule says:

    Zipdot:

    Let’s agree to disagree.

    Sure, that’s fine. But I was just trying to point out that LT posts at least once, sometimes twice, a day and still manages to keep it interesting. Do you think you could do that? I know I couldn’t.

  44. G Money says:

    linkfromhyrule: Sure, that’s fine. But I was just trying to point out that LT posts at least once, sometimes twice, a day and still manages to keep it interesting. Do you think you could do that? I know I couldn’t.

    Actually, when you add in his radio show and the fact that he also posts articles on ON, I’m *blown away* by how many articles LT is able to post. So I have no issue with the fact that a lot of the substance of the posts are often rehashed, notwithstanding Rom’s point that this also saves a lot of searching.

    But maybe the most important thing to remember is that the blog post and the comment threads are not separate entities. The real value of this blog is not just that the posts are always interesting, it is that the subsequent level of commentary from readers is of higher quality than any other blog I’ve read, by far (and I’m pretty sure I’ve read them all). The LT posts in some ways just serve as the triggers for the discussions that follow.

    And the most amazing part? It costs you and I nothing. *Nothing*. In case it hasn’t been said enough – thanks LT.

  45. Kitchener says:

    Nurse signed to 3 year deal:

    http://www.tsn.ca/nhl/story/?id=428403

  46. rickithebear says:

    There are on average 48 even face offs in a game.
    15-18 in D, N, & O zones.
    Pocession won in Ozone leads to 1 shot every 2 pocession .50
    A puck carried into zone produces 3 shots every 8 pocession. .37

    Getting centers of 57-60% or better FO guys to take all the D zone draws like Vancouver did is pure brilliance.

    18 draws X 57.5% = 10.35 W/ 7.65L
    10.35 X .37SH = 3.83 Shots/gm
    7.65 X .50SH = 3.83 shots/gm

    On defensive zone draws a team has to be 57.5% to break even in average shot counts from wins.
    in Neutral zone you have to be 50%
    In Ozone you have to be 42.5%

    What becomes very noticable is thier is an built in advatage in the Ozone/Dzone of .065Sh/FO
    Were in the neutral zone it is equal.
    you can hide your weak faceoff players with higher oZ draws but you eliminate the naturaladvantage of .065.

    We need to have high FO % centers taking draws in the Ozone and D zone.
    And hide the weak FO centers with neutral zone draws
    Gordon 58%
    Hall 55%
    Lander 49%
    Gagner 46%
    RNH 40%
    it is interesting to note that horc when healthy took 15-18 EV draws per Game.
    after only 14 or less
    Last year:
    Horc 12/gm
    Gagner 12.5/gm
    RNH 14/gm
    Belanger 11/gm

    What i draw from this
    Gordon, hall and lander need to be takiing draws in the Ozone and D zones.

    O zone:
    RNH-Gordon-Eberle
    Gagner-Hall-Yakupov
    Perron -Lander-hemsky

    N. zone
    RNH-Hall -Eberle
    Perron-Gagner-Yakupov
    jeonsuu-Lander-hemsky
    Smyth-Gagner-Jones

    D zone
    Smyth-Gordon-Jones/jeonsuu/hemsky
    Hall-Lander-hemsky/jeonsuu

    I do not even hazard to think what our Re at even will be this year!
    Can you imagine RNH-Eberle with 59% more fo pocession in the Ozone.
    as for bringing in a center. malhotra or Steckel to take gordon’s spot in D zone.
    gordon slots in landers spot in Nzone and Dzone.

  47. spoiler says:

    Romulus ApotheosisI just re-watched Barry Lyndon this week oddly enough. I won’t drag us back into another Kubrick debate, but I will note that O’Neal’s Irish accent needed work.

    Oh dear.

  48. oilersfan says:

    Jesse

    I called Stauffer yesterday to talk about how Mactavish said going into the season he wanted the bottom 6 to be bigger, better, and more depth. I told him it is smaller, no better, and has less depth. The only change is adding Joensu over Petrell. Considering nobody has ever seen Joensu play I don’t see how that can be considered an improvement. And as much as I like the Boyd Gordon signing, I don’t see how he is better than Horcoff.

    In fact every move the Oilers have made at forward and D has made the team smaller. Horcoff is bigger than Gordon, Smithson bigger than Lander, Paajarvi bigger than Perron, Pettrell bigger than Joensu, Whitney bigger than Ferrence, Fistric bigger than Grebeshkov, so for a team whose focus was to get bigger it is surprising every single addition has been smaller, to a team that must be the smallest in the league.

    I suppose the addition of Hemsky to the bottom six makes it better, if he stays. I wonder how he will play with Gordon and Jones? who knows, it may work better than with Gagner, at least they will all know who is the puck transporter and distributor, and who is the puck retrieval and rebound gatherer on the line.

    My last comment on the call was that if Hemsky is better than any player you would get back for him, why exactly do they want to trade him? That was the end of that conversation because I think I had him pretty flustered by making 7-8 comments in a row that he couldn’t answer. I think he largely agrees with the Oilogosphere but he isn’t the GM and still has to defend all the GM does. I suspect he would have tried hard to sign Penner.

  49. regwald says:

    Some of my favorite parts of this blog are the reused or overused Memes … like trading Smid or why do you hate Ebs, the notorious 3 for 1 trade, pulling out the Stan Weir references when a playoff spot is in the mix. Love them all.

    The only two things I would change are as follows:

    Add the Buy LT a beer button, so we can all show our love and appreciation.
    Add a Props button for some of those comments that “win the blog” that day.

  50. Jesse says:

    oilersfan: JesseI called Stauffer yesterday to talk about how Mactavish said going into the season he wanted the bottom 6 to be bigger, better, and more depth. I told him it is smaller, no better, and has less depth. The only change is adding Joensu over Petrell. Considering nobody has ever seen Joensu play I don’t see how that can be considered an improvement. And as much as I like the Boyd Gordon signing, I don’t see how he is better than Horcoff. In fact every move the Oilers have made at forward and D has made the team smaller. Horcoff is bigger than Gordon, Smithson bigger than Lander, Paajarvi bigger than Perron, Pettrell bigger than Joensu, Whitney bigger than Ferrence, Fistric bigger than Grebeshkov, so for a team whose focus was to get bigger it is surprising every single addition has been smaller, to a team that must be the smallest in the league. I suppose the addition of Hemsky to the bottom six makes it better, if he stays. I wonder how he will play with Gordon and Jones? who knows, it may work better than with Gagner, at least they will all know who is the puck transporter and distributor, and who is the puck retrieval and rebound gatherer on the line.My last comment on the call was that if Hemsky is better than any player you would get back for him, why exactly do they want to trade him? That was the end of that conversation because I think I had him pretty flustered by making 7-8 comments in a row that he couldn’t answer. I think he largely agrees with the Oilogosphere but he isn’t the GM and still has to defend all the GM does. I suspect he would have tried hard to sign Penner.

    IIRC you were the same person who called out Rob Brown’s diatribe against Hemsky a couple years ago saying something along the lines of, “What, have you got a PhD in body language?”

    Anyway, well done. I have been coming around on Bob Stauffer more and more lately — he’s shown a growing affinity for possession metrics and he’s obviously a big fan of Tyler Dellow. During your call yesterday you could tell that he was doing his best to play the role of apologist as an employee of the organization, but that he probably agreed with you. In summary, I think he’s a smart guy who’s just got a job to do that kind of gets in the way.

  51. lazerguidedmelody says:

    regwald,

    You mean that you don’t want to change LT’s adorable yet annoying proclivity for listing lines as C-LW-RW?

  52. regwald says:

    lazerguidedmelody:
    regwald,

    You mean that you don’t want to change LT’s adorable yet annoying proclivity for listing lines as C-LW-RW?

    na, I figure it out by the time I am confused about the 3rd line … and the matchups. LOL

  53. wheatnoil says:

    regwald:
    Add the Buy LT a beer button, so we can all show our love and appreciation.

    “It provokes the desire but takes way the performance.”

    I fear this addition, if much abused, would increase the quantity of blog posts but decrease the quality.

  54. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    wheatnoil: “It provokes the desire but takes way the performance.”

    I fear this addition, if much abused, would increase the quantity of blog posts but decrease the quality.

    That might its own kind of reward.

  55. regwald says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: That might its own kind of reward.

    Maybe But LT a beer where 10% is beer fund and 90% send LT to the Draft Fund. :)

  56. Jordan says:

    regwald:
    Some of my favorite parts of this blog are the reused or overused Memes … like trading Smid or why do you hate Ebs, the notorious 3 for 1 trade, pulling out the Stan Weir references when a playoff spot is in the mix. Love them all.

    The only two things I would change are as follows:

    Add the Buy LT a beer button, so we can all show our love and appreciation.
    Add a Props button for some of those comments that “win the blog” that day.

    I agree.

    I would also add a “Buy Danny a Beer” button, as I expect he would be more motivated to help improve things if he were getting more beers as a result.

    Romulus Apotheosis:
    Bruce going all reasonable on Belov too

    http://blogs.edmontonjournal.com/2013/07/25/mature-prospect-anton-belov-ready-to-make-some-noise-on-edmonton-oilers-blue-line/

    I agree with you about Belov. If he comes in here and is the same caliber of player he was last year in the KHL, he will be in the top 6 guaranteed opening night, top 4 by the end of November, and could be top pairing before the end of 2013.

    I’ve heard people on this blog say it’s not reasonable to think a guy who’s never played in the NHL before will be that good. That just because he was on Russia’s WHC team doesn’t mean anything. I’ve heard people suggest that Grebs has better odds of being on the team because he has the NHL experience. Even though Grebs went a combined 44gp 0-9-9 -11 on two teams last year, and Belov went 46gp 9-17-26 +19. Not counting the playoffs.

    If MacT’s grand plan is to move the puck well, have mobile defenders who can defend and bring offense, AND some size and grit to clear the crease and break the cycle… Belov won’t just make the team, he’ll lead it.

    Book it.

  57. prairieschooner says:

    MacT was talking about how excited he was to have signed Grebs and the success he had with the player previously.
    Belov is rated as the top D man in the KHL compared to Grebs who had 2 average at best seasons in the KHL with average teams.
    Is MacT doing a seen him good with Grebs and where does that put Belov on Mac Ts depth chart?

  58. Pablo Aimar says:

    prairieschooner,

    I believe he explicitly stated that Belov is looked at as a top 4 option.

  59. Ca$h-Money! says:

    I think we’re looking at defense by committee here… no clear pairings, give the minutes to the guys that earn them on a game by game basis. By the middle of the year we’ll have a sense of 1st/2nd/3rd

  60. Ribs says:

    Jordan: If MacT’s grand plan is to move the puck well, have mobile defenders who can defend and bring offense, AND some size and grit to clear the crease and break the cycle… Belov won’t just make the team, he’ll lead it.

    Another Russian Kapitan? Two thumbs up, comrade!

  61. rickithebear says:

    prairieschooner: Belov is rated as the top D man in the KHL compared to Grebs who had 2 average at best seasons in the KHL with average teams.
    Is MacT doing a seen him good with Grebs and where does that put Belov on Mac Ts depth chart?

    This answers Belov!

    Pablo Aimar: I believe he explicitly stated that Belov is looked at as a top 4 option.

    i looked into Grebs time with the OIL.
    ignore 9-10 that was Quinn’s total destruction of quality dmen.

    I looked at his time coached with MacT.

    He played 2048 minutes

    1172 min 57.2% was with Gilbert, Old Steve staios, Chaos M. Greene.
    he was 2.92GF/60 and 3.12 GA/60
    (-4GD)
    He played 440 min with Vishnovsky
    He was 3.27GF/60 and 1.91GA
    (+10)
    He played 478 minutes with
    Rourke; Young Smid; Roy; Struds; Tarnstrom; Souray.
    He was 2.75GF/60 1.37GA/60
    (+11G)

    i have no dought why he brought in Grebs.

  62. FastOil says:

    The Belov signing was encouraging for sure and if he can be stable that will be a win. I don’t think the Norris trophy is in his reach however my friends. Chances are he is back in Russia next year because he is not going to want to go through the rookie process because of his age and the income loss and the fact he’s not going to want to sit or play in the AHL, why would he?

    He either knocks it out of the park or goes home is my call, and the home run is a long shot realistically or he’d have been here a few years ago.

    There are also more bodies than spots right now. Correct me if I’m wrong but usually teams don’t have 8 D good enough for a regular spot and sit 2. Either some bodies go or there will be some unhappy campers in the PB.

    I don’t get the Clifford thing. What is so special about him – has he had some Lucic gene therapy or something? From what I see is he’s a low scoring easy starts easy comp bottom 6 player who is also probably slow given his size although that I don’t know. He also has a lot of hits to the point where it might indicate a possession problem. Not worth giving much up for and a dime a dozen. The newer Hamilton is probably as good or close enough.

  63. lazerguidedmelody says:

    Ca$h-Money!,

    By my reckoning the Oil have at least three third-pair D alongside a duo at #2, maybe #1. That top 4 looks like a crap shoot.

    Fingers crossed for Belov – I certainly like his resumé – but it is a risk

  64. VanOil says:

    rickithebear,

    Good post.
    Many criticize the Canucks zone start strategy, they are miss informed.
    I am unsure if Eakins is as progressive as Vigneault.

    I agreed with Gillis shutting down Malhotra due to safety concerns. Malhotra continues to claim that his vision has improved to the point it is not a danger. His summer training leeds me to believe Oilers would be wise to offer a PTO. He would (has been) be an amazing tough zone start center. RNH and Gagner taking draws in practice against Malhotra and Gordon would provide them every opportunity to improve.

    A neat video showing the relative leg size difference between a Hockey player and a Soccer player. http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/ex-canuck-malhotra-pushing-to-extend-career/

  65. bookje says:

    oilersfan,

    People have seen jonesuu play, you haven’t but he has played 67 games in the NHL. He looks to be a bit better.

    Gordon is Horcoff of 4 years ago. Horcoff was not good last year and cost $2 million more.

    Perron is much better than Pajaarvi today (Pajaarvi may improve in the future)

    Ferrence is a HUGE improvement over Whitney.

    So, your rant focuses on size and ignores skill. No doubt, it would be nice to add some size, but you can’t ignore the improvements unless you are D.S.F.

  66. SinceTheWHADays says:
  67. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    SinceTheWHADays:
    Romulus Apotheosis,

    I agree

    great.

    with what?

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