BLUE ON BLUE

The Oilers Blue said goodbye to Ryan Whitney, Andy Sutton, Theo Peckham and Mark Fistric. New GM Craig MacTavish has added a more mobile blue, better passers and better able to  execute a quick transition offense. The mantra beginning in training camp: now is not a good time to be in the defensive zone.

azorcan

NHL CAREER, PER 82 GAMES PLAYED

  1. Justin Schultz 14-32-46
  2. Jeff Petry 3-19-22
  3. Andrew Ference 4-17-21
  4. Ladislav Smid 2-9-11

Schultz had a much stronger offensive season than I thought he would–the NHL is a tough league–and defensively he was about what one might expect for a rookie being played 21.5 minutes a night on a chaotic team with a weird defensive structure (the ‘Krueger pinch’ might have been better called the ‘automatic goal against’).

Petry was not as sharp as 11-12 but the short season is a reason and that probably impacted Laddy too. Suffice to say the Oilers aren’t going anywhere without those two playing well. New hire Andrew Ference represents some badly needed ‘calm feet’ and should give this group a more aggressive style.

NHL CAREER, PER 82 GAMES PLAYED

  1. Anton Belov 13-23-36***
  2. Denis Grebeshkov 6-24-30
  3. Corey Potter 6-15-21
  4. Phil Larsen 4-12-16
  5. Nick Schultz 3-11-14
  6. Oscar Klefbom 0-12-12****

***Rob Vollman’s new KHL translation

****Rob Vollman’s new SEL translation

Among the 5-11 group of blue, the Russians look like the most promising puck movers and the Klefbom looks like he’ll end the Nick Schultz era sometime during training camp. I think the ‘tweeners’ Potter and Larsen are in a spot of bother here, but as we approach reasonable expectations it’s important to keep an open mind on all options.

candy colored clown

AHL DEPTH CHART

  • Martin Marincin 69, 7-23-30 in the AHL last season. He’s 21, 6.05, 196
  • Taylor Fedun 70, 8-19-27 in the AHL last season. He’s 25, 6.00, 190
  • Brandon Davidson 26, 2-3-5 in the AHL last season. He’s 21, 6.01, 202
  • Brad Hunt 65, 4-29-33 in the AHL last season. He’s 24, 5.09 188
  • David Musil 62, 9-25-34 in the WHL last season. He’s 20, 6.04, 203
  • Martin Gernat 23, 3-10-13 in the WHL last season. He’s 20, 6.05, 191

It’s crazy, but there’s a chance none of these guys spend the heart of their careers as Oilers. With Smid, Petry and Justin Schultz already in the NHL, with Klefbom likely to jump this group in a heartbeat and with Darnell Nurse possibly a year or two away, there’s a chance the entire OKC group listed here will qualify as trade bait and also-rans.

The NHL is a cruel game.

Note: Tomorrow between 11 and noon, Rob Vollman will talk about his new book. Among the items: his new translation numbers for KHL, SEL and other leagues. Stay tuned!

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47 Responses to "BLUE ON BLUE"

  1. theres oil in virginia says:

    …(the ‘Krueger pinch’ might have been better called the ‘automatic goal against’)…

    Certainly when Nick Schultz was executing it! (Unless Justin Schultz bailed him out.) Something bad happens to that guy (NS) when he crosses the red line.

  2. sliderule says:

    LT
    There you go again trying to trade Marcinin .Lol

  3. Young Oil says:

    I for one really hope the Oil keep Marincin and Gernat. If they fill out their 6’5” frames, they could be a formidable bottom pairing. You can never have too much depth on the blue line. It would really sting if we traded one or both of them away, and they turned into a Voynov-like talent. Marincin seemed to improve over the course of the season, and showed he could still play without Schultz, and his development seems to be incredibly encouraging.

    On another note, what do yo think Nick Schultz is worth at the trade deadline if Douglas Murray was worth two 2nd round picks?

  4. VanOil says:

    Our AHL/trade bait group looks better than many of the NHL defenses that the Oilers have iced over the last 3 years.

  5. G Money says:

    theres oil in virginia:
    …(the ‘Krueger pinch’ might have been better called the ‘automatic goal against’)…

    Certainly when Nick Schultz was executing it!(Unless Justin Schultz bailed him out.)Something bad happens to that guy (NS) when he crosses the red line.

    While this isn’t necessarily *untrue*, it’s interesting to take a look at the usage charts for Oiler defenders last year (bubble size = TOI, color = CorsiOn):

    http://public.tableausoftware.com/shared/MH4WCJP76?:display_count=yes

    Note that the Schultz twins are almost identical, but Sr’s Corsi is almost 50% better than Jrs.

    Some points to note:
    - Everyone’s Corsi is terrible. But Smid/Petry can be forgiven because they faced the toughest opposition every night, by far.
    - The guys on the far lower left, the ones who are highly sheltered but still not treading water are either gone (Whitney, Fistric) or face stiff competition to even get on the ice (Potter)

    VOR has previously done some analysis showing that Corsi is a weak statistic for defensemen. And in that sense, other than Whitney, this is probably true for the Oilers – there’s very little information to be gained by looking at CorsiOn, or CorsiRel, for this group. If you put too much stock in it, you would conclude that Smid/Petry were the worst of the bunch, and Potter/Fistric the best (narrowly followed by Sr and Teddy Peckman).

    Nonetheless – I do find it interesting that many posters here believe that SrSchultz did worse than JrSchultz, while Corsi suggests very much the opposite.

    For the record, my ‘seen him good’ suggests SrSchultz was still one of the better defenders most nights, but subject to some very weird brain cramps at times. They all were actually, which is part of what makes me suspicious of Krueger’s system – perhaps ‘automatic goal against’ truly is accurate.

  6. VanOil says:

    Young Oil:
    On another note, what do yo think Nick Schultz is worth at the trade deadline if Douglas Murray was worth two 2nd round picks?

    I hope so. Which MacT the warlock can turn into 6 third rounders at the draft, all being Russians that are over looked by teams not blessed with Yakupov’s Tatarstanian magic.

  7. Lowetide says:

    G Money: I think posters (and fans) were surprised by eye about how many times Schultz the elder bit on the pinch play. I don’t blame him, and wonder aloud (ALOUD) why they didn’t reject all signals once they knew it was buggering up the pairing.

  8. Numenius says:

    I’m cheering for Potter to beat out Larsen for a spot on the roster. He seemed to be coming along really nicely at the end of last season, rounding it out with that beauty 2 goal game.

  9. Melman says:

    Lowetide,

    Agreed LT – I suspect failure to react to the signals had A LOT to do with lack of options mgmt. gave the coaches. As a coach MacT often spoke about ice time being a coach’s only real currency with players and at least on D Eakins will have the ability to put guys in popcorn row who aren’t producing or buying in to the system.

  10. Melman says:

    Interesting that Nashville signs Spalling for the same $ as Jones. Given the choice I’d rather spend my $1.5 on Jonesy

  11. VanOil says:

    Do defensive corps point totals matter?
    If you add the total points from the President and Stanley Cup Champion Chicago Blackhawks together and adjust from a 48 games you get 150 points.

    If you add the 82 game points/projections from the top 6 LT listed above (the 4 + the Russians) you get 166 points.

    The entire Stanley Cup winning LA corps from the previous year accumulated 142 regular season points.The President Cup wining Canucks did manage 181 points using 10 Dmen that season.

    I would conclude that our D corps has the offensive acumen to be a contender. If of course they can actually defend as well. Or will there offensive stats be limited by the loss of the Kruger Death Pinch

  12. striatic says:

    i think the best bets to play for the Oilers long term are Marincin and Musil, for different reasons.

    Marincin because he is developing well as an all around player, improving his defense considerably while still putting up excellent numbers.

    Musil because Oilers.

  13. bookje says:

    I think it’s important to point out that Grebeshskov’a most recent pro year would give him an NHLE of something like 0-7-7 .

  14. Canadas Jamaican says:

    Is it possible that Musil plays with the Oil Kings this year?

  15. Lowetide says:

    Canadas Jamaican:
    Is it possible that Musil plays with the Oil Kings this year?

    No, don’t think so. Gernat even less likely, he’d be a double whammy (import and 20).

  16. theres oil in virginia says:

    G Money,
    That was actually a “bear trap”, if you know what I mean. I figure if someone is going to take repeated shots at Schultz Jr, I gotta stick up for the guy when I get the chance. Also, my “saw him good” sense of Shultz Sr is that he was dismal except for a few nights towards season’s end. I really did see J Schultz bail him out more than once.

    As for Corsi, I’m skeptical of a stat that is used as a positive indicator of whether someone is good or not, when a shot that is blocked at the blue line and turns into instant offense against counts in the player’s favor. (Nick Schultz had more than his fair share of those. So many times, I wondered ALOUD why he wouldn’t shoot when he had the lane, and other times I wondered ALOUD why he would shoot in a situation that clearly called for him to push the puck deep. [I'm surprised I never woke up my kid wondering ALOUD during the games.] Clearly he has no sense in the offensive zone. And that’s not even considering whether it was the right time for a cross ice pass D to D in the offensive zone, which apparently he never considered either…before he made one.) So, regarding Corsi, it’s interesting to see someone put some effort into determining context for the stat. I tend to agree with the statement that Corsi is a decent proxy for possession. That’s about it. I don’t think that it should be used as a complete quantifier of a player’s “goodness”, ie – A’s Corsi is better than B’s, so A is better than B. And none of the above regarding Corsi is directed at anyone in particular, nor should it be read to indicate that I am claiming Corsi has no value.

    Lowetide:
    …and wonder aloud (ALOUD) why they didn’t reject all signals once they knew it was buggering up the pairing.

    You mean much to the consternation of your wife you wondered ALOUD during the games? Hehe. I’ve been there before.

  17. sliderule says:

    Plus minus is somewhat derided to rate players because it reflects the players you are playing with.I guess you could say that about most stats but that’s another topic.

    So how close were the oilers to making the playoffs when you looked at team plus mius.Damn close.

    Every team with a positive plus minus made the playoffs.Two teams the Wild and Isles made it with a negative.

    The oil if they had scored five more goals and given up five fewer or any difference of 10 would have made the playoffs.

    I know this was only one season but I am looking for positivity so the oil can make the playoffs with only a small improvement

  18. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    I always hated Blue Velvet. Something about it just left me irritated throughout. I couldn’t seem to identify with the various compulsions I guess. Let’s go with that.

    ——-
    “Petry was not as sharp as 11-12 but the short season is a reason and that probably impacted Laddy too.”

    But Ladi was one of those (not unlike Hemsky) that seemed to not miss a beat during the lockout only to falter once NHL play started. Not a total collapse… but something was off. Not sure if it was Petry, RK, or what… but something was off there.

    ——
    “Phil Larsen”

    More and more I wonder about him. At the time of the trade, little was said about him. MacT didn’t seem to say anything, focusing (rightly so) on the departure of Horcoff:

    http://oilers.nhl.com/club/news.htm?id=676956

    the official press release is equally slim:

    http://oilers.nhl.com/club/news.htm?id=676856

    Since then, I haven’t heard anything about him from the Oilers, who have done press pieces for Perron and Ference… to be fair I haven’t heard anything about Gordon or Joensuu either.

    We haven’t heard from the player yet either.

    anyway, I’m very curious to know how the team views this player and how he views the team and his potential within it.

    ——
    “AHL depth chart”

    I’m sure we’ve discussed this before… but what’s the deal with Gustafsson again? Do we expect him to land in OKC anytime soon?

  19. Lowetide says:

    Rom: MBS mentioned one more year in Sweden and then Gustafsson comes over.

  20. striatic says:

    sliderule,

    do you mean team +/-, or team Goal Differential?

  21. sliderule says:

    striatic,

    Team goal differential .

  22. jake70 says:

    Before the D can move the puck they need to have it….any stats that track D-zone: puck battles won, cycles broken, turnovers caused, plays read correctly at blue line ??

  23. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    jake70:
    Before the D can move the puck they need to have it….any stats that track D-zone:puck battles won, cycles broken,turnovers caused, plays read correctly at blue line??

    The NHL tracks take and give aways though I don’t think they do so by zone.

    You might look at Bruce/JW’s zone entry/exit data too.

    Also… on all goals for/against Staples assigns some kind of system of praise/blame all his own.

    Finally, general possession stats are going to give you a lot of indirect info on whether a player is effective getting the puck going in the right direction.

    ——-

    Lowetide:
    Rom: MBS mentioned one more year in Sweden and then Gustafsson comes over.

    that sounds about right. So many players, I lose track of the fringe ones and how their development is going.

    next year… let’s see… Klef is up; Nurse is still in jr (let’s say); Marincin is half and half; Gernat is full time AHL; one of Fedun, Davidson and Musil are probably gone via trade, injury, or not resigned…

    he’s probably up against Simpson and LaLegs for ice time?

  24. danny says:

    ‘Puck Posession Team’ has become a popular reference in hockey today, but please humor me in nitpicking for a bit.

    Back in my HF days, coincidentally the summer following our ’06 darkness, I was alarmed by losing guys like Dvorak & Peca not because of their ability to retain possession, but because of their ability to gain possession. I think my post was about ‘puck separation’ back then, but my point was, after watching so many years of Dallas murdering us, the big difference was having guys with an ability to consistently and effectively regain possession. Losing them scared me infinitely.

    I also remember so clearly the night that we killed game 6. A friend commented to me that I have gained 10lbs since the stanley cup run started. I replied that it was actually 20, and that I swear that it will be gone by summer or the Oilers will never make the playoffs again…

    So, I never did lose the 20lbs. The Oilers never did make the playoffs again. My fault or Lowes? Prove it.

    Nonetheless, it’s due time for both… I have a wedding coming next year that I want to look as good as possible for…

  25. Maverick says:

    That’s the best depth the Oilers have had on Defense for a very long time. Finally!!

    Now it mean development of all this depth is at the fore front. As pointed out where will all these players play?? If Klefbom and Larson or Potter get send down, clear waivers etc, I think Musil get the ECHL to start and Gernat is an import and 20 years old, too good for junior but not ready for AHL or ECHL, might not be ready for either. Could Gernat spend a year in Europe? Is there a connection to a team in Europe for Gernat to develop?

    Don’t forget Simpson is in his last year of college, i think. Lots and lots of potential kids on defense.

  26. Racki says:

    I am skeptical in this “puck posession” group along the lines of Danny’s reasoning above. I will believe it when I see it. But I am really stoked about Anton Belov. I think he could be a real gem here, so I’m optimistic about him. But I do fear that MacT when the opposite direction that he said he would on the toughness front. I believe he said he’d add some muscle to the group, but so far it seems like he’s maybe broken even at best. Other than that though, I’m happy with what has happened so far.

    I think the team’s success is going to hinge a fair bit on how well Gagner can play this year, how quickly Nuge recovers, how well he plays when he’s back, and how well Marc Arcobello (or whomever is the lucky guy) fills in for the Nuge. I think this D group will actually work out, despite my skepticism.

    Looking at the blue, we go from:
    Smid-Petry
    Schultz-Schultz
    Whitney/Fistric – Potter

    To
    Smid-Petry
    Ference-J. Schultz
    Grebeshkov-Belov

    I consider N.Schultz gonzo, but he could slot in the 3rd pairing possibly

    Is the Oilers blue improved? I believe it is by a fair margin. The only questions for me with the blue are whether Ference can successfully babysit J.Schultz in the D-zone, and whether Grebeshkov will be able to play at a good level again. I think Ference will be fine. Grebs is a question mark, but he’s likely to play 3rd pairing and could be easily swapped out with one of our other depth D if need be.

    Once Klefbom and Nurse make this team though, look out. They’re going to need restraining orders from Pierre MacGuire, as he’s going to be eyeing up our blue line with a raging one. lol!

  27. Dead Cat Bounce says:

    Rondo:
    Carlos Danger stickhandling

    http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/watch-oilers-taylor-hall-shows-off-sick-mitts/

    Hitler was a wonderful ballroom dancer.

  28. RexLibris says:

    If Gernat plays overseas for a year rather than go to the AHL am I right in assuming that his ELC doesn’t kick in?

    Extra development, some time with family, and one more year before the clock starts to tick may all be good things for both the player and the team.

  29. RexLibris says:

    Rondo:
    Carlos Danger stickhandling

    http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/watch-oilers-taylor-hall-shows-off-sick-mitts/

    I remember a story Doug Weight told about his dad making him stickhandle a ping-pong ball on their cement floor in the basement. The logic was that if he could develop a touch soft enough for that a puck would be no problem.

    Looking back at Weight’s career…I guess his dad was right.

  30. RexLibris says:

    Dead Cat Bounce: Hitler was a wonderful ballroom dancer.

    He was better on skates: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ybuKQf9p5jg

  31. regwald says:

    Lowetide: No, don’t think so. Gernat even less likely, he’d be a double whammy (import and 20).

    Had a twitter conversation with @artful_puck earlier in the week and @potterpowerplay stepped in and commented that the Oil Kings have two imports already for this season which leaves it pretty unlikely that Gernat stays with the Oil Kings.

    My guess is if that is true, that the Oilers intended on Gernat having another year of junior then they wouldn’t have filled their import spots. Kulda and Mads Eller were the two names he mentioned.

  32. jp says:

    RexLibris:
    If Gernat plays overseas for a year rather than go to the AHL am I right in assuming that his ELC doesn’t kick in?

    Extra development, some time with family, and one more year before the clock starts to tick may all be good things for both the player and the team.

    That would be nice, but I don’t think it works that way. I’m not sure about the exact rules, but Rajala was in a similar situation when he went back for military service. He burned some of his ELC by playing in Finland. I think a jr aged player can have the ELC slide if playing in Europe, but once “pro aged” the ELC ticks off regardless of where they’re playing.

  33. gcw_rocks says:

    In two years I sure as heck hope the Oilers have bought out Ference to open a spot for Marincin. And Nurse is learning the trade in OKC for a year.

  34. slopitch says:

    There was once a time when Lowe and co would fine unheralded guys in their mid 20′s like Smith, Staios and Hedja. One can only hope Belov and/or Larson follow suit. I still think there is work to do by upgrading a dman and in the bottom 6. I’d love to know MacTs thoughts.

    Excited for Vollman’s book!

  35. rickithebear says:

    theres oil in virginia: That was actually a “bear trap”, if you know what I mean. I figure if someone is going to take repeated shots at Schultz Jr, I gotta stick up for the guy when I get the chance.

    I will take that means me.

    yes you showed me that the schultz’s had similiar situation.
    Holy! two dman who played together had the similiar results.

    I put zero value in corsi. for Dmen.
    the only measure i use is GA/60.

    shot totals per game is a good measure of team defence.
    NJD 24 Sa/gm with Brodeur
    EDM 32.3 SA/GM

    when you take standard save % you get
    24 shots/gm 2.04 GA
    34 shots/gm 2.89 GA
    there is a +/- .43GA variance from d performance.

    there are 30 starters
    20 % are highly out side the norm. ..900 to .906 amd .922 to .940
    80% have a functional range of .906 to .926
    taking the standard 29 shots
    .940 1.74GA
    .926 2.14GA
    .906 2.72 GA
    .900 2.90 GA
    most goalies can only influence of +/- .29GA
    the elite or bad +/- .57 GA

    Al being equal Defence of team influences 60% of GA results and golaies influence 40% of GA results.
    it allways kills me when experts include wins and GAA as a measure of a goalie.
    wins are from GF 50% and GA 50%
    a goalie does not score 0/ 50%
    a goalie influences 40% of GA 20% of 50%
    winning is 80% team and 20% goalie.

    This is why i only use Save% for goalies and realize team influence shot reduction.
    defence men are the ones who keep it to the perimete of the box (kill zone)

    As i have stated before the schultz’s were the 2nd worst Dpair in the game.for GA.
    i have stated before, i believe this to be partly the sum of the Pair.
    But J. schultz historically sucked with N. schultz 33.7 GF%
    and Whitney 33.0 GF%
    yet schultz sr 54.5 GF% and whitney 56.0 GF% were quit good without him.
    J. schultz was break even facing 2nd/3rd comp
    while playing with one of the 7 best tough comp dmen in the game.

    GMoney!
    Nice Defence!
    I would state that the three cost us the playoffs.
    I gave him the benefit of the doubt cause of the silly J. schultz love on here.
    now that i have posted the fact the two older were very good Dmen without him
    and one of the 7 best defensive dmen in the game could barely hold waster against softer comp
    i will say this from a dmen point of view.
    there is zero argument to support any thought other than.
    J. Schultz personally cost us the playoffs from a GA view.
    His only saving grace is rookie season.
    and good +/- in AHL
    Often brought up when discussing Corsi versus GA measure.
    As well pocession based on dump and chase afecting shot count.
    Fo% with built in variances.
    dump and change leads to a outshot rate of 26 to 1.

    We are about to tighten up the ship.
    the guy doing the math makes me happy.

  36. G Money says:

    rickithebear: GMoney!
    Nice Defence!

    Appreciate the props (and also appreciate Virginia’s bear trap!), but you should know that I’m still a huge JSchultz fan! Despite his terrible defensive performance last year, the kid is going to be an absolute killer. Here’s why:
    - His skating, shot, and sense of positioning in the O zone are a joy to watch. You can’t teach that stuff, and it is a rare rare gift
    - His defensive capabilities were actually OK the first handful of games. He seemed to hit a wall about when everyone predicted/feared he would, and his d zone coverage fell apart, but he actually held his own in most games up to that point. I think next year with a full year of pro behind him and a summer of pro conditioning, he’ll be able to handle a full year of workload much better.
    - I still remain of the opinion that Krueger’s system was part of the problem, and made every defenseman look bad at times. It would be that much worse on a rookie. I have snidely made the comment to a few people that JSchultz’s defensive game was fine when he was still playing Todd Nelson’s system early in the NHL season, but as soon as he started playing like Krueger wanted him to, it became a shitshow. Might be true…

    The other thing I will say is that I appreciate your rather unique viewpoint, so I do try and parse your postings. But it can be very difficult at times – they sometimes read like haiku.

    That said, I also do not think your statistics are nearly as valid as you believe them to be. Use of goal based statistics and variances might seem like they would be the smartest things to use, but the problem is that they are inherently small sample.

    If you’re looking at GA for a team that averages 3 GA/G, in an ENTIRE season you only have 240 or so statistical events to analyze. If you then divide that by 6 or 7 defenseman, you are now looking at 40 or so events per man, again for the entire season. If one player has a bad game in front of a goalie also having a bad game and is therefore on the ice for 5 GA, you’ve completely skewed your entire seasons worth of GA statistics for that player. The sample size issue therefore means that goal-based statistics must be taken with a very large grain of salt, and any variances you look at as a means of comparison require huge bands around them in order to make for a statistically valid comparison.

    This is why shots-based metrics, despite their many flaws, are more robust. Teams average closer to 30 SA/G, and this gives you 2400 events per team and, say, 400 events per player, a sample size that at least allows you to draw more valid inferences and make more valid comparisons.

    That’s not to say that goal-based metrics aren’t useful – as has been discussed many times, no single statistic or group of statistics will ever completely describe a player. But if you intelligently use a collection of statistics together with ‘seen him’, you get a much more objective and robust view than otherwise.

    But that is why, when you say the only measure i use is GA/60, I think you are misguided and likely to draw poor conclusions.

    And as I said in a different thread: when your statistics tell you clearly that Jeff Petry is a better defenseman than Shea Weber – your statistics are wrong!

  37. maxwell_mischief says:

    HEINEKEN?! F*#! THAT S#!T! PABST BLUE RIBBON!!

  38. spoiler says:

    Blue Velvet…

    Judd Steiner lip-synching Roy Orbison’s In Dreams. Does it get any more surreal than that? Throw all your anchors away (pun intended).

    Fun flick about battling movie tropes… Very self-referential. Lynch certainly masters style with this effort at tapping his brain into ours, but it comes out pretty slapdash as a cinematic whole. He would add coherence and structure to that same intent with the superior Mulholland Drive.

  39. rickithebear says:

    G Money:

    Before my basis was shots.
    But it is exclusionary.

    GA are a result of Llost pocession.
    Failed ozone sorties and FO.
    we know the shot rates per sortie and Faceoff.
    this is a reflection of the forwards.
    We need to know pocession counts per team.
    it becomes readlily apparent that the variance of shots faced is the function of the team.
    -successful entry to zone
    -successful pucks to net.
    The problem is corsi needs to have a caviate.
    it needs to be measured by the attack waves faced.
    CORSI/OPPONENT POCESSION

    Of the qualified goalies last year there were 39.
    the shots/gm rate was 28.7
    9 faced 31.7 or more
    6 faced 29.4 to 30
    7 faced 28.4 to 29.3
    11 faced27 to 28
    1 faced 26.2 crawford
    3 faced 24.5 to 25 Emery, Elliott, Quick
    1 faced 23.6 Hedberg NJD
    1 faced 22.3 Brodeur NJD

    We can get a defensive influence at this point:
    SHOTS/CORSI
    So like you I used shots faced.
    but not because it is the best choice.
    but currently tables give us data to this point..

    however there are other factors.
    Location of release of the shot.
    Someone created a chart showing the success rate of shots by location.
    we can get an average of the expected success rate a defensive pair gives up.
    Ninja had that nice chart:
    Fistric -Potter was the most beautiful horseshoe around the boards and Blue.
    I presume this was generated from a chart
    that can provide us that influence.
    You are excluding this affect.

    Defences can affect the type of Shot.
    Lange established individual curves for each shot type based on a x,y distance from net.

    At the point of release. It maters who released the shot. Relative to Goalie.
    - velocity of the players shot.
    - Movement of puck path.
    - location on Goalie.
    there is a standard chart for each goalie by hole and elevation.(just like a strike zone.)

    which gets us to GA. which you say is wrong.

    To measure at shots ignores.
    Location
    Type
    Who
    Where.
    this whole grouping is about saves versus shots faced.
    SAVES/SHOTS
    ?
    Save%
    Shots X Save% gets you GA.
    you are ignoring SAVE%
    we have one of the 8 best defences/goalie when it comes to influences on affecting the shot.

    I have not looked at shots versus corsi to get a measure of success rate of our d reducing shot count.
    But we can get the measure of allteams d from desjardins

    We sure as heck do not have the most critical start to the whole defensive measure.
    Corsi per opponent pocession
    .what are our forwards doing to us.
    obviosly measured in a
    +/- vesus ozone entry average 37%
    faceoff losses in our Dzone. +/- versus 50%

    So while you ignore Save %
    i will not!

    Wrong!
    Beauty!

  40. rickithebear says:

    As for weber/Petry
    wonder what there corsi/Opp pocession is.
    that would be a good start!

  41. theres oil in virginia says:

    rickithebear,
    First, I’d like to say that I hope you enjoyed the “bear trap” too, it was in good fun.

    Second, “It worked! It worked! My bear trap worked! I had to free an innocent animal first (G), but then it worked!”
    ;)

    I don’t have a problem with your POV, only it’s difficult to read your posts and understand what you’re trying to say. Although lately, I’ve had much more success understanding what you’re doing. I’m going to take that to mean that either I got smarter, or you started trying harder to communicate your ideas…and I don’t feel smarter as the days go by!

    I understand most of your post above, but there are some things you say that can have multiple meanings, such as “there is a +/- .43GA variance from d performance”, which is pretty ambiguous, and “20 % are highly out side the norm. ..900 to .906 amd .922 to .940“, which requires certain assumptions about distribution, choice of norm, etc. I can’t tell whether you’re trying to use strict definitions of these statistical terms or loose definitions. I’m no “statistician”, but I can look shit up on Google. And finally, there are statements that aren’t given justification in your post, but you proceed as if they are self-justifying, such as: “there is a +/- .43GA variance from d performance.” Where does this come from?

    At any rate, taking your assumptions as valid, I generally see the points you’re making. I agree with your insinuation regarding the effect of shot quality, which is generally ignored. I see the drop-off in Jr’s WOWY stats, but without TOI included those don’t mean much. If Jr got paired with Whitney during one of Whitney’s down games, and Whitney got paired with Sr during one of Sr’s up games, then unless there are enough other games mixed in, your stats are skewed. Sample size matters when looking at these statistics. Also, there isn’t any doubt that Jr hit a wall. You could see him skating around with his arms hanging down, like a boxer who’s spent. If Jr spent most of his “without Sr” time during those games, then you aren’t getting a true picture from the WOWY.

    I saw Sr have a couple of good games, and a bunch of lousy games. I saw Jr make defensive plays that Sr couldn’t dream of making. And, as I stated above, Sr doesn’t hold a candle to Jr in the offensive zone. Sr is a defensive liability…in the offensive zone. There is no doubt that Jr is a more talented defenseman overall.

  42. theres oil in virginia says:

    G Money,

    I have been wondering lately whether Nick Schultz’s crappy play last year could be put on coaching, and I don’t know how you could determine it. I’m holding out that caveat in my judgement of NS. We’ll see this year if his play takes a step up, but until I see it…the past is the best guide for the future.

  43. G Money says:

    rickithebear: So while you ignore Save %

    As I said before – I don’t say “ignore GA”, so in turn I don’t say “ignore save%”.

    What I’m saying is that the events associated with GA are so small a sample size that any conclusions you draw from using GA will be heavily skewed to the point of being meaningless (e.g. Petry > Weber).

    GA can be part of the picture, but it is a statistic with a ridiculously small sample size for individual players. To emphasize the point, the breadth of the data underlying GA for an entire season is roughly comparable to shots per game for 1.5 games. Think about that – 1.5 games. You cannot draw any conclusions of any kind from 1.5 games worth of shot data (of any in game data actually), so you cannot really draw many more conclusions from GA in an entire season. Maybe an entire career you can, but not a single season. So, GA-based stats must of necessity be a small part of the picture, they will NOT have much if any validity on their own.

    Right!
    Beauty! (eh)

  44. G Money says:

    theres oil in virginia:
    G Money,

    I have been wondering lately whether Nick Schultz’s crappy play last year could be put on coaching, and I don’t know how you could determine it.I’m holding out that caveat in my judgement of NS.We’ll see this year if his play takes a step up, but until I see it…the past is the best guide for the future.

    No way to say for sure it’s one thing or the other, I’m just relying on a ‘weight of evidence’ approach:

    Points for: he’s been a steady and reliable stay-at-home guy for many years; when he joined the Oilers the previous season (after the team had given up), he was easily the steadiest defenseman on that team for the rest of the season; every defender looked bad and confused regularly last year (pointing to the system); Sr did have to babysit Jr in the sense that he had to cover up for a lot of pinches and missed assignments – when you know your partner is going to make mistakes and you have to cover for them, that can have a deleterious effect on anybody; his Corsi indicates he was the more effective of the partnership defensively, and indeed, one of the more effective defenders overall

    Points against: he’s 34, so maybe his play is reflective of decline rather than system / partner / role / team

    Until demonstrated otherwise, the points for / against still dictate it is reasonable to conclude that Sr was a good player caught in a bad place, and it showed.

    This season (if he’s still here) will probably give us a better bead on who the real Sr is.

  45. theres oil in virginia says:

    G Money:
    …when he joined the Oilers the previous season (after the team had given up), he was easily the steadiest defenseman on that team for the rest of the season…

    I flat-out don’t remember much about that season. Something about the effect of trauma on the mind.

    …every defender looked bad and confused regularly last year (pointing to the system)…

    Agreed. I hope the coaching change eliminates that.

    …when you know your partner is going to make mistakes and you have to cover for them, that can have a deleterious effect on anybody…

    Yep. When you’re constantly second-guessing, you end up doing the wrong thing more often than not.

    …Until demonstrated otherwise, the points for / against still dictate it is reasonable to conclude that Sr was a good player caught in a bad place, and it showed.

    This season (if he’s still here) will probably give us a better bead on who the real Sr is…

    Looking forward to it, but I still think he’ll be the odd man out. He sucks in the offensive zone.

    …his Corsi indicates he was the more effective of the partnership defensively, and indeed, one of the more effective defenders overall…

    Here’s my disagreement. I know he wasn’t one of the more effective defenders overall. I saw it with my own two eyes, even when I was trying to gouge them out. Therefore, my conclusion is that Corsi isn’t good at measuring how effective a defender is.

  46. DeadmanWaking says:

    I would have put good money on the proposition that “reject all signals” was some established meme from Kerouac or Dick or maybe something recycled by Cronenberg from the peregrinations of Marshall McLuhan.

    But no. It’s vintage Lowetide. Lowetide’s blog is the top result on Google for “reject all signals”. Nicely played, good sir. I’ve long noticed that the very instant I click “post” something funny happens with my CRM-114.

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