CRAIG’S LIST, 2013 SUMMER

When it comes right down to it, being an NHL General Manager amounts to making a bunch of bets that you hope don’t turn on you. This summer, Craig MacTavish made one dozen bets. Are they good?

  1. May 30th: Signed Russian D Anton Belov. A free agent signing, the likely best defender in the KHL, a puck moving D signed to a reasonable 1-year deal with the only risk being he performs well and costs more next season? That’s a win. 
  2. June 10th: Teemu Hartikainen signs with UFA (KHL). A curious item at the time, it remains an unusual decision. The one positive? Oilers retain his rights, he would have been exposed to waivers this fall if he didn’t make the hockey club. I don’t know that he’ll be back (he’s already covered his draft number, but I honestly thought there was a player here) but hope we see Harski again. No win, no loss, maybe a shrug? A tie.
  3. June 30th: A risk averse draft. I like their decision making up and down the line at this year’s draft. Lots of solid bets and then a few complete fliers late–that’s a solid template. The big defenseman taken #7 overall has a lot of good arrows and should see a spike in his boxcars this season. The Marco Roy pick is advanced-stats-endorsed. A clear win.
  4. July 4: Buy out Eric Belanger. Something happened, likely caused by ineffective play during his contract years. I don’t think it does any good to bury people once they’re gone, and I don’t really know what happened beyond it didn’t work out. Not a positive, not a negative.
  5. July 5: Oilers trade Shawn Horcoff to Dallas for D Philip Larsen and a 7th rd pick. I think MacT got good value (the club didn’t have to take back any money from the Horcoff deal) and MacT eventually grabbed a 3line C in Gordon to replace him. Still, this deal weakened the middle (at center) so for me it’s a net negative. A loss.
  6. July 5: Oilers sign D Andrew Ference to a 4-year, $3.25M/year contract. I like this deal despite the length of the contract which is no doubt a negative. Ference offers the Oilers something they’ve been lacking for years–a second pairing veteran who can play the game any way required. Tough, can move the puck, mentor or step up if required. Health is a concern, but I believe Oiler fans will love his play. A win.
  7. July 5: Oilers sign G Jason LaBarbera to a 1-year, $1M deal. Perfect. Gets the cap for G in line, gives Dubnyk a guy he can work with and absolutely sets the pecking order for the position. Another win.
  8. July 5: Oilers sign C Boyd Gordon to a 3-year, $3M/year contract. That’s a lot of money for this player, but the Oilers had an enormous need and he was the only guy on the board who could fill the role. Actually, that’s not strong enough, he was/is a ‘perfect fit’ for the group, and now that Hemsky is staying the remnants of a third line are coming together. A clear win despite the Elizabeth’s.
  9. July 5: Oilers sign W Jesse Joensu to a 2-year, $950,000/year contract. This–to my eye–could be viewed as a trade for Teemu Hartikainen, or at least an exchange. Joensuu appears to be more physical, more likely to engage, bigger and with more experience. I believe he’ll get the Petrell 4line role to begin the season but has an excellent chance to win the 3line L role if Jones and Smyth are unable to fill it. I’ll call this a win, hoping the pro scouts got it right.
  10. July 5: Oilers sign C Will Acton to a 2-year, 2-way contract. Veteran AHL center offers depth and could win some NHL time if injuries occur. I’ll call this a draw, as Chris VandeVelde was the go-to guy a year ago and Acton seems to be a similar player. Win, minor division.
  11. July 5: Oilers sign L Ryan Hamilton to a 2-year, 2-way contract. Hamilton has a real shot here, the Oilers want size and truculence. When we begin to break out the depth charts for the RE series, I can see him being the first callup from OKC or the last guy to make the roster when the team heads north. Win, minor division but could be bigger depending on how things work out.
  12. July 6: Oilers sign G Richard Bachman to a 1-year, 2-way contract. A solid backup goalie. Terrific signing. Win. Full stop. Backup goalies are more important the backup-AHL players because if you need them then you really need them.
  13. July 6: Oilers sign R-L Ryan Jones to a 1-year, $1.5M contract. Massive opportunity for Jones this coming winter. He has a clean shot at a top 9 role unless the Oilers plan to use Ryan Smyth, and even if they do I’m not sure if he can keep it. I don’t think this is a win, because the Oilers know Jones and the challenges that might face a Gordon-Hemsky line. I count this as a tie, based on role needed at that spot. I have no quarrel with him as a 4line option.
  14. July 7: Oilers sign D Brad Hunt to a 1-year, 2-way contract. This was an under the radar signing but something to keep an eye on. He’s a helluva puck moving defenseman and although this counts as a minor win.
  15. July 10: Oilers trade W Magnus Paajarvi and a 2014 2nd rd pick to St. Louis for L David Perron. This is the big one, and it’s pretty huge. Edmonton paid in full on this deal, but getting Perron could be a key element. A combination of change in strategy (Dellow), style (Perron has more grit and I think is more of a shooter) and experience tells me this is a win despite giving up real quality.

FINAL TALLY

8 wins, 1 loss and 3 ties

GRADE: A

Also, 3 minor wins as noted above.

The Oilers still have some ways to go, including:

  1. Sam Gagner’s contract
  2. Ales Hemsky’s situation (they aren’t done, if they can’t trade him do they use the buy out window that comes after arbitration?)
  3. Improving the bottom 6F’s, specifically center depth
  4. Figuring out the defense, which may or may not include another trade.

Is it possible they stay the course? Possible, but unlikely.

written by

The author didn‘t add any Information to his profile yet.
Related Posts

71 Responses to "CRAIG’S LIST, 2013 SUMMER"

  1. spoiler says:

    I wouldn’t be sleeping too well at nights if my name was Nicholas Schultz.

  2. spoiler says:

    I don’t see how they would buy out Hemsky unless they desperately needed the cap space before TC. Judging from rumoured offers, he would have value at the deadline, if not on the IR. And some team will suffer major injury trouble to a top 6 Forward during the season, providing an opportunity for a deal. Heck that team might be the Oil and they might need him themselves.

    He’s worth too much as an asset, I think, to compliance the poor bugger.

  3. Ca$h-Money! says:

    I don’t see how you count the return on the Horcoff trade as a loss for MacT. Prior to this trade if you told me that we could move Horcoff (retaining $1.5 of salary) for a prospect D and a late pick I would have said absolutely, but no one will offer that. The fact that we got this return without keeping salary back was shocking. Great move by MacT.

    The failure isn’t the move, it’s the lack of follow up. Only signing 1 center to replace the two best faceoff men on the team who played all the defence (even if they didn’t do it all that well) is the problem. Gordon can’t replace Horcoff and Belanger.

    The trade itself was pure magic… to me one of the most impressive things MacT has done.

  4. regwald says:

    My guess is that Joensu was a recommendation from the advanced stats guy similar to how they liked Perron. Just a gut feel the liked his ability to create turnovers or control the puck.

  5. Canadas Jamaican says:

    Smyth-Gordon-Hemsky 3rd line?

  6. FastOil says:

    If they don’t trade Hemsky I predict he will be hurt at the deadline. It is crazy to keep him if he’s healthy now because otherwise the odds of him walking for nothing next year are just too high. Have to get something for him like they should have for all the guys walking this year.

    And I like Hemsky, it’s just smart on the business side. How about 50% Hemsky for Kulemin? A little cap for the Leafs, both UFA next year, and capgeek says we can do that and sign Gagner for 5M and have 2.4M in cap left, roster full. Also one of Potter or Larsen have to go, same player.

  7. Racki says:

    I’ve got some high expectations (but not too high that I’m setting up for disappointment) with Belov. He’s a bit of a wildcard. At the very least, he should be a pretty good PP asset, plus provide the odd dirty punch/skate kick.

  8. Racki says:

    FastOil:
    If they don’t trade Hemsky I predict he will be hurt at the deadline. It is crazy to keep him if he’s healthy now because otherwise the odds of him walking for nothing next year are just too high. Have to get something for him like they should have for all the guys walking this year.

    I agree.. I’m not sure how many people remember that Hemsky’s days where numbered here a few years ago before he got hurt near the deadline and the Oilers traded Penner instead.

  9. Lowetide says:

    Canadas Jamaican:
    Smyth-Gordon-Hemsky 3rd line?

    That’s a good line in my opinion, especially if Smyth can keep it together. I’d run with it unless Joensuu can push Smyth aside, and when 94 fades look around for some help.

    As an aside, I’m not suggesting the Oilers buyout Hemsky, but if they’re not going to spend to the cap (and the bonus stuff is a sticky wicket I’ll give you that) it’s an option they have available to them.

  10. Racki says:

    Lowetide:
    As an aside, I’m not suggesting the Oilers buyout Hemsky, but if they’re not going to spend to the cap (and the bonus stuff is a sticky wicket I’ll give you that) it’s an option they have available to them.

    I don’t see much point in buying out Hemsky, to be honest. Maybe they might waive him if they just don’t want him around anymore, but I think worst case scenario both sides just suck it up for the rest of the year, and Hemsky moves on, as UFA (which would suck, but might as well get a bit more out of him while we can, as he’d still produce better than average line 3 offense).

  11. Gerta Rauss says:

    I don’t think this is a win, because the Oilers know Jones and the challenges that might face a Gordon-Hemsky line. I count this as a tie, based on role needed at that spot. I have no quarrel with him as a 4line option.

    That pretty much sums up the bottom 6 for me. Last year we were wagering on Whitney’s ankles and this year it’s whether Jones can play that 3LW effectively.

    They were both bad bets. Sign a UFA 3LW ffs.

    Jones is a nice 4line option-he can play either side and be effective and can step up to the 3rd line for short term in case of injury.

    Same sentiment with Lander and the 4C position.

  12. Gerta Rauss says:

    And to the best of my knowledge the compliance buyout window is closed until summer 14. Regular buyouts are available if you’re involved in the arbitration process.

  13. Lowetide says:

    Let me ask the group this question. If you’re MacT, and you could:

    1. Add a top 4D that you consider a ‘perfect fit’
    2. Also add a 3rd line winger to the group who is a good fit for EV and PK

    but had to send away Hemsky to do it, would you? Even if the only way to get rid of the deal is buying out Hemsky?

    I don’t know that I would, but it’s a tough call.

  14. Gerta Rauss says:

    Smyth-Gordon-Hemsky

    …would be fine if we could send Smytty back to 2006 in one of those time machines we were talking about recently.

    Smyth-4C-Jones is a nice 4line in that both Smyth and Jones can step up to the 3line to cover for injuries.

    *4C= not Lander

  15. Young Oil says:

    If one of Smyth/Jones start the season on the third line, then we are not a playoff team. I do think Joensuu will surprise, but it’s not something that can be relied on.

    I honestly see no way Smyth will improve after an abysmal season and a half. Don’t think Jones will ever really be the same as he was before the eye injury. Are there any recent examples of a player suffering a serious eye injury then returning to form?

    In short, Smyth and Jones were 3rd line players two years ago, but are at best 4th line players now, in my opinion. If there are injuries and they have to move up in the lineup, fine. But they shouldn’t be given a third line spot unless they earn it. I hope Eakins gives everyone a clean slate, and judges them for what they do, not what they have done in the past.

  16. lance says:

    Matt Harvey is just about to pitch to trout, cano and cabrerra. Kinda curious about this first inning myself.

  17. spoiler says:

    Gerta Rauss: And to the best of my knowledge the compliance buyout window is closed until summer 14. Regular buyouts are available if you’re involved in the arbitration process.

    Thank you. Thought LT was intending a compliance buyout, but he must have meant a regular one, and that option makes even less sense to me. If there’s no trade, I’d rather he’d be on the team.

    Lowetide: Let me ask the group this question. If you’re MacT, and you could:1. Add a top 4D that you consider a ‘perfect fit’2. Also add a 3rd line winger to the group who is a good fit for EV and PKbut had to send away Hemsky to do it, would you? Even if the only way to get rid of the deal is buying out Hemsky? I don’t know that I would, but it’s a tough call.

    I’m not quite sure what you are asking here because that second last sentence doesn’t make sense to me. If you mean dealing Hemsky for those two assets, and they’re legit NHL assets, I would do it. Beats picks.

  18. Manitoba Oilers says:

    lance,

    This is hockey blog but I’m watching it to.

  19. Young Oil says:

    Lowetide:
    Let me ask the group this question. If you’re MacT, and you could:

    1. Add a top 4D that you consider a ‘perfect fit’
    2. Also add a 3rd line winger to the group who is a good fit for EV and PK

    but had to send away Hemsky to do it, would you? Even if the only way to get rid of the deal is buying out Hemsky?

    I don’t know that I would, but it’s a tough call.

    That’s tough. For me it’d depend on the players coming back, and the cost and term of their contracts. I honestly like the look of our D, especially in a couple of years. Our forward depth is pretty brutal right now, and I don’t think we have any prospects (aside from Lander) ready to step into a bottom 6 role in the next few years.

    If there was a deal out there, something along the lines of Hemsky @ $2.5M+middling pick/prospect for a 3rd line winger and 4th line center, I think the team needs that a lot more than they do a Coburn-type Dman.

  20. Gerta Rauss says:

    Young Oil:
    I do think Joensuu will surprise

    And that’s fine, I want to be surprised. Same with Belloq and Klefbom. I would welcome a nice surprise of a prospect/unknown turning into an NHLer before our very eyes.

  21. Racki says:

    Lowetide:
    Let me ask the group this question. If you’re MacT, and you could:

    1. Add a top 4D that you consider a ‘perfect fit’
    2. Also add a 3rd line winger to the group who is a good fit for EV and PK

    but had to send away Hemsky to do it, would you? Even if the only way to get rid of the deal is buying out Hemsky?

    I don’t know that I would, but it’s a tough call.

    I’m not sure what scenario would require a Hemsky buyout, but my answer is hell yes. A regular course buyout of Hemmer actually isn’t too bad, I see ($1.333M this year, and $1.833M next year). But more importantly.. I think it’s all about what improves the team the most.

    I know above I said a buyout would probably be pointless, but I think this a situation that would make sense (Albeit probably pretty unlikely).

    I do like this team’s d-pairings though.. I am not sure who I’d push out of the top 4 to make room for another D.

    As a friend of mine once said, the Oilers problem isn’t that they don’t have any 2nd pairing D, it’s that they have too many… they have a hell of a lot of guys that can play in that 2nd pairing and do good enough. They don’t have any standout (yet) that is a bonafide top pairing guy imho though. So I don’t know, maybe I partly talked myself out of this… lol

  22. lance says:

    Lowetide:
    Let me ask the group this question. If you’re MacT, and you could:

    1. Add a top 4D that you consider a ‘perfect fit’
    2. Also add a 3rd line winger to the group who is a good fit for EV and PK

    but had to send away Hemsky to do it, would you? Even if the only way to get rid of the deal is buying out Hemsky?

    I don’t know that I would, but it’s a tough call.

    Hemsky for a top 4 D? Done. Any of em, certainly for a perfect fit. But perfect fit would include Gubranson, Bogosian, and Petroangelo. Somehow I suspect this is not what you meant.

    For a 3LW? saw off.

  23. Canadas Jamaican says:

    Lowetide,

    No real shooter on the line but a lot of good NHLers…Hemsky could feed the points and the others crash the net. I have a feeling this trio could have great possession numbers. As an aside…I hope you’re enjoying a few cold brews on your vacation.

  24. Gerta Rauss says:

    Lowetide:
    Let me ask the group this question. If you’re MacT, and you could:

    1. Add a top 4D that you consider a ‘perfect fit’
    2. Also add a 3rd line winger to the group who is a good fit for EV and PK

    In a minute, wouldn’t think twice about it. We’d need to fill the 3RW position of course, but this is the exact scenario I had envisioned prior to Mac T’s comments 48 hrs ago(likely keeping Hemsky)

    Lowetide:
    but had to send away Hemsky to do it, would you? Even if the only way to get rid of the deal is buying out Hemsky?

    hmmm….that is a tough call-it implies you needed the cap space to accomodate the 3LW and the Dman and were now tight against the cap. Either way, the answer is still yes.

    We’ve come this far with this team, I see no reason to stop now and get hung up on a couple of bottom sixers and maybe a servicable D man.

  25. Numenius says:

    Lowetide:
    Let me ask the group this question. If you’re MacT, and you could:

    1. Add a top 4D that you consider a ‘perfect fit’
    2. Also add a 3rd line winger to the group who is a good fit for EV and PK

    but had to send away Hemsky to do it, would you? Even if the only way to get rid of the deal is buying out Hemsky?

    I don’t know that I would, but it’s a tough call.

    I’m not sure I get the buy-out part. If we buy out Hemsky (and take his cap hit for the year, since it would be non-compliance), how do we then trade him for an asset? Isn’t he then a free agent and available to the other team for free?

    If it would be somehow possible, I think I would do it for either option. There is a nice window in this particular year where other teams are motivated to give up good players to get under the low cap and where we have a fair amount of cap space available (even if we keep Hemsky’s cap hit). So if you find someone who is a “perfect fit” you definitely do it.

  26. theres oil in virginia says:

    Lowetide:
    Let me ask the group this question. If you’re MacT, and you could:

    1. Add a top 4D that you consider a ‘perfect fit’

    If by ‘perfect fit’ you mean ‘top 2D’, then hell yes, in a heartbeat.

  27. Gerta Rauss says:

    Racki:
    I do like this team’s d-pairings though.. I am not sure who I’d push out of the top 4 to make room for another D.

    Nick Schultz.

    I would be (mostly) OK with this group if we left the station with the D as is, but I think we can improve on Schultz and maybe turn him into a RH shooting D(Girardi??)

  28. Racki says:

    Gerta Rauss: Nick Schultz.

    I would be (mostly) OK with this group if we left the station with the D as is, but I think we can improve on Schultz and maybe turn him into a RH shooting D(Girardi??)

    Oh Nick Schultz is already out of my top 4.

    Smid-Petry
    Ference-J. Schultz

    ..is the way I see it.

    I don’t really see Ference as a bottom pairing D, but I guess he’d be the next to drop down, if room was needed in the top 4. But I’d say then we’d want a LHD since I wouldn’t push Petry or J Schultz out of the top 4 (well, I’d move J Schultz down, but any pairing involving him outside of a stable defensive guy is probably going to be scary bad).

  29. Wes Mantooth-11 says:

    Would Clifford fit into that 3rd line?

    I’m thinking the Oiler’s need some size with skill still, top to bottom they are far to easy to play against.

    At least two more players who can be aggressive and not hurt the team.

  30. Gerta Rauss says:

    Racki,

    I see

    I’m moving heaven and earth to see that J Schultz plays 3rd pairing at EV

    …and to continue my comment above, if J Schultz, Klefbom and Belov surprise and push their way up the pairings, great!! That would be a nice problem to have.

  31. cabbiesmacker says:

    The big question for me in all of this, and really there’s not much that’s hugely significant, is if David Perron possesses enough talent to make Sam Gagner look half assed decent as a second line C.

    I like Perron. A lot. But the answers “probably not”. Hopefully he isn’t hanging onto Sammy’s coattails tight enough to be dragged down into the abyss.

    $4.5M + with term? Pfffttttt

  32. RexLibris says:

    As I see it, the work that has been done is largely the demolition/foundational work that isn’t flashy but takes a tonne of time and effort.

    The finishing is heavily detail-oriented and painstaking and where the most “progress” is noticed.

    If the Oilers hang on to Schultz (Elder) and Hemsky for the season they could move one or both at the deadline for picks ( let’s say a 1st and a 2nd), then move those picks for players at the draft. Selling the two assets at the deadline high market point and then re-selling again at draft high-market prices would allow the team to quickly improve and might be enough to procure those players we’ve all be longing for: top pairing defensemen and a depth winger who plays a big game.

    Imagine a scenario where the Oilers trade their 1st and the acquired 2nd for a top-pairing defenseman and then move the other 1st for our imagined winger. I think that is possible and would represent significant change within a relatively short time period.

  33. rickithebear says:

    Smyth:
    first year back was the 23rd best EVP LW in the game.
    38 EVPTS
    With the players we retained from last year less brown
    Smyths EVPt pace was a 26PT season which is top 50 for wingers
    and he was the 7th best PK winger in the game!

    there is a reaon for MacT’s SMythis staying.
    Pocession into the zone Turn and No one.
    Alot of that last year.

  34. Lowetide says:

    Rex: That’s pretty brilliant.

  35. Gerta Rauss says:

    RexLibris,

    The only problem I see with that is we’d be selling them at the deadline because we would have missed the playoffs again…yes..?

    If we add a 3LW and 4C via UFA, run with the current D, and we’re out of the playoffs at the deadline,sure, the above makes sense.

    If we leave the station with the current group(no additions/subtractions)..and we miss the playoffs and wind up selling at the deadline, well….

  36. böökje says:

    Rex et al. I expect that MacT sees his time to ‘add’ to this roster and this year’s Free Agent period, this years draft, and next years FA period and draft. That is when you will see MacT’s team complete. So, even if they just keep Hemsky this year and use the cap space in FA2014 to sign someone, it works.

    Management is intent on improvement this year, but not really concerned about excellence until next year.

  37. SinceTheWHADays says:

    Young Oil: That’s tough. For me it’d depend on the players coming back, and the cost and term of their contracts. I honestly like the look of our D, especially in a couple of years. Our forward depth is pretty brutal right now, and I don’t think we have any prospects (aside from Lander) ready to step into a bottom 6 role in the next few years.

    If there was a deal out there, something along the lines of Hemsky @ $2.5M+middling pick/prospect for a 3rd line winger and 4th line center, I think the team needs that a lot more than they do a Coburn-type Dman.

    Agreed

  38. Ducey says:

    Gerta Rauss:
    Smyth-Gordon-Hemsky

    …would be fine if we could send Smytty back to 2006 in one of those time machines we were talking about recently.

    I don’t have much experience with time travel, but I think you might have that backwards – unless you want an old Smyth on the 2006 team.

  39. jp says:

    RexLibris:

    Imagine a scenario where the Oilers trade their 1st and the acquired 2nd for a top-pairing defenseman and then move the other 1st for our imagined winger. I think that is possible and would represent significant change within a relatively short time period.

    I’m envisioning a return of 37 lower round picks.

  40. Ducey says:

    LT,

    Not sure if you saw this. A couple of recruits on AHL contracts.

    http://theahl.com/barons-sign-nesbitt-ford-to-ahl-deals-p184949

    Interesting that both generate a crap load of shots. Maybe the numbers nerds are having input here too.

  41. Ice Sage says:

    New IHOP opens in Downtown Disney
    scratch Penner from the wishlist

    something else will shake loose, MacT is proving to be pretty shrewd

  42. Woodguy says:

    July 6: Oilers sign R-L Ryan Jones to a 1-year, $1.5M contract. Massive opportunity for Jones this coming winter. He has a clean shot at a top 9 role unless the Oilers plan to use Ryan Smyth, and even if they do I’m not sure if he can keep it. I don’t think this is a win, because the Oilers know Jones and the challenges that might face a Gordon-Hemsky line. I count this as a tie, based on role needed at that spot. I have no quarrel with him as a 4line option.

    In a world where Dustin Penner signs a $2MM 1 year contract, Jones signing is a loss and its not close.

    Gerta Rauss,

    Jones is a nice 4line option-he can play either side and be effective and can step up to the 3rd line for short term in case of injury.
    Same sentiment with Lander and the 4C position.

    Nailed it.

    If the Oilers aren’t close to the cap then the size of the Jones contract doesn’t matter much, but if you are slotting him on the 3rd (like MacT says he is, but that could mean less than nothing), then its a pure loss.

    Luckily I think the coach is pretty good and will slot players where they should be.

    I hope.

  43. jp says:

    böökje:
    Rex et al.I expect that MacT sees his time to ‘add’ to this roster and this year’s Free Agent period, this years draft, and next years FA period and draft.That is when you will see MacT’s team complete. So, even if they just keep Hemsky this year and use the cap space in FA2014 to sign someone, it works.

    Management is intent on improvement this year, but not really concerned about excellence until next year.

    I think you’re right that this is as much about next summer as this summer.

    Moving Horcoff’s contract has to be considered a win in the big picture. Even if they don’t spend the money this summer but use it next year to add something (or pay guys like RNH, Schultz, Petry, Dubnyk and Belov) the move is a win. I’m not comfortable with the C depth at the moment either, but keeping those guys is a bigger deal than signing a UFA 4C this year (which they likely will still do). That said, there is really no excuse to leave the bottom 6 the way it is if you have cap space to use. I think we will see a number of more moves before camp, whether it’s trades or cheap UFAs who’ve been blowing in the wind for a month or two.

  44. stevezie says:

    FastOil:
    If they don’t trade Hemsky I predict he will be hurt at the deadline. It is crazy to keep him if he’s healthy now because otherwise the odds of him walking for nothing next year are just too high. Have to get something for him like they should have for all the guys walking this year.

    I don’t buy that argument, because it doesn’t seem like we can get anything for him right now. What’s the difference between getting nothing for him later of effectively nothing now?

    Let’s assume we can trade him for some middling picks. If we can then flip those picks for one year of a guy as good as Hemsky, is that a good deal?

    I think it’s a slam dunk. Therefore I vote we keep him, injuries and all.

    If we’re getting good offers on him it is a different story, but given the verbal, don’t you think MacT would have taken a good offer?

  45. Gerta Rauss says:

    Ducey: I don’t have much experience with time travel, but I think you might have that backwards – unless you want an old Smyth on the 2006 team.

    Well it has to do with temporal mechanics and such.

    It’s all quite complicated.

  46. böökje says:

    Woodguy:

    In a world where Dustin Penner signs a $2MM 1 year contract, Jones signing is a loss and its not close.

    I think that some of the things that the coach cares a lot about such as coachability (listening is another way of saying it) and other ‘attitude elements’ affect contracts. Skill is critical and most teams can absorb a few players with bad attitudes, but are often reluctant to do so. MacT and Eakins believe that they can activly influence games through active coaching. To do that, you need players who are willing to change their style when asked to do so. Guys like Penner appear to be unwilling to do that.

  47. wheatnoil says:

    stevezie: I don’t buy that argument, because it doesn’t seem like we can get anything for him right now. What’s the difference between getting nothing for him later of effectively nothing now?

    Let’s assume we can trade him for some middling picks. If we can then flip those picks for one year of a guy as good as Hemsky, is that a good deal?

    I think it’s a slam dunk. Therefore I vote we keep him, injuries and all.

    If we’re getting good offers on him it is a different story, but given the verbal, don’t you think MacT would have taken a good offer?

    I agree with this.

    I’d still like them to sign a veteran 4/5C and a 3LW, but having Hemsky around is a great bird in hand.

    If one of the top 6 wingers goes down to injury, Hemsky can slot in and be a legitimate top 6 winger. Without Hemsky, that spot probably goes to Jones or Rajala. I’m all for Rajala getting an at-bat or two this year, but Hemsky is obviously a greater option.

    If the Oilers are doing okay in regards to top 6 winger injury, then some team in the NHL is going to lose a high profile winger. Teams aren’t desperate right now. But when a winger goes down, the replacement doesn’t hold water, the losses start piling up, and the beat writers start talking openly about someone getting axed… well, we saw what happened when Tambellini didn’t fill the center void last year. Some other GM is not going to make that same mistake. That’s when MacT can come in and say, “Oh hey, I see you’re looking for a Top 6 winger… well I happen to have a spare one of those around…” What will Hemsky bring back in return then? Probably more than he does now.

    If neither of the above happen, then the Oilers get Hemsky as a great 3-Line option for a year and use the cap money next year to take a swing at UFA D-man.

  48. Racki says:

    Gerta Rauss:
    Racki,

    I see

    I’m moving heaven and earth to see that J Schultz plays 3rd pairing at EV

    …and to continue my comment above, if J Schultz, Klefbom and Belov surprise and push their way up the pairings, great!! That would be a nice problem to have.

    I would also put J. Schultz on 3rd pairing at even strength, with the caveat I mentioned earlier.. I just don’t want him winding up playing with an inexperienced partner (at the NHL level) like Belov or something. I think Belov will likely pan out well, but that could turn out to be a scary grebeshkov-Gilbert pairing even though it would be 3rd line minutes + weaker matchups. But if the right player came along to push Ference down, maybe you have Belov jump up a line to play with this mystery defender.

    Hard to say, I guess what would work best. I just want to see Schultz sheltered with a more defensive partner, is all, since his D game isn’t exactly top notch (although maybe one could say that he was given too much rope to focus on offense… so perhaps he does have it in him).

  49. G Money says:

    Lowetide sez: Is it possible they stay the course? Possible, but unlikely.

    They cannot stay the course. Too many ifs. As in:

    The Oilers are a playoff team:
    IF Belov’s game translates to the NHL and he becomes a capable top 6 D
    AND
    IF Lander turns into a replacement-level-or-better 4C
    AND
    IF Joensuu turns into a replacement-level-or-better 3rd or 4th line winger
    AND
    IF Jonesy turns back into a replacement-level-or-better 3rd or 4th line winger
    OR
    IF neither J&J can earn 3rd line duty, Smyth still has enough legs to do it

    Just too many IFs, ANDs, and ORs.

    Last year, the list was similarly long: The Oilers are a playoff team IF (Whitney’s leg works, Belanger finds his game again, Petrell is a capable 4th line winger, Hemsky stays healthy, Dubynk can handle being a #1 goalie).

    Apart from the last one (which at its core, cost us a top 4 pick!), how’d that work out for us?

    How is this year better? Some – preferably all – of those IFs need to be replaced with something a little less risk laden.

    Still think 3L = Raymond, 3R = Mueller, 4C = Wellwood, 4L = Smyth, 4R = Jones (total cap hit for the new players probably within a couple mil of Hemsky) makes us a playoff team.

  50. spoiler says:

    Gerta Rauss: Smyth-Gordon-Hemsky
    …would be fine if we could send Smytty back to 2006 in one of those time machines we were talking about recently.

    Ducey: I don’t have much experience with time travel, but I think you might have that backwards – unless you want an old Smyth on the 2006 team.

    Gerta Rauss: Well it has to do with temporal mechanics and such.

    It’s all quite complicated.

    I think it’s quite simple… We send Smytty back to switch spots with his younger self so no one is the wiser…

    Of course then history changes and we lose to the Red Wings, the rebuild starts earlier, contract payoffs are different and so are head office movements.

    And then there’s that nasty temporal paradox where we have both Old Smyth and Young Smyth co-existing as soon as Young Smyth returns from the past, since then Old Smyth would immediately appear as a member of the roster (someone’s roster), as history changes and he moves from the past to the present…

    Yeah, Gerta, you’re right. Complicated.

  51. rickithebear says:

    regwald:
    My guess is that Joensu was a recommendation from the advanced stats guy similar to how they liked Perron. Just a gut feel the liked his ability to create turnovers or control the puck.

    Should look at top 10 +/- players in the AHL each year fromm 2005 on.

  52. Ribs says:

    Interesting read on Gilbert Brule…. http://www.theprovince.com/sports/hockey/canucks-hockey/resurrection+Gilbert+Brule/8668967/story.html

    “I went to see a therapist, who prescribed temporary medication, and I really don’t believe in taking drugs for a problem like that. I thought it should have been dealt with in a different way. But the Oilers wanted me back on the ice as soon as possible. It’s a business and I understand that, and I’m not trying to throw the Oilers under the bus; they reacted as any team would and should.

    Ugh….

  53. Racki says:

    Ribs:
    Interesting read on Gilbert Brule…. http://www.theprovince.com/sports/hockey/canucks-hockey/resurrection+Gilbert+Brule/8668967/story.html

    “I went to see a therapist, who prescribed temporary medication, and I really don’t believe in taking drugs for a problem like that. I thought it should have been dealt with in a different way. But the Oilers wanted me back on the ice as soon as possible. It’s a business and I understand that, and I’m not trying to throw the Oilers under the bus; they reacted as any team would and should.

    Ugh….

    “Ugh” is an appropriate response, but let’s not forget that the Blue Jackets and Coyotes likely were just as impatient with him.

    It would be nice to hear a story about a more compassionate Oilers brass for once though.

  54. LMHF#1 says:

    Racki: “Ugh” is an appropriate response, but let’s not forget that the Blue Jackets and Coyotes likely were just as impatient with him.

    It would be nice to hear a story about a more compassionate Oilers brass for once though.

    More compassionate? Meh. Less utterly stupid would be awesome though.

  55. FastOil says:

    stevezie: Fast

    What are the chances Hemsky is healthy at the deadline? They have said they don’t want him, he will not be back and is UFA after this year. Risky thinking that you can deal him then.

    Hemsky at 50% for Kulemin. Or better, Hemsky and NS for Phaneuf and Kulemin. Leafs gain cap and rid themselves of two they don’t seem to appreciate, we gain a 1 LD and winger who can play and is large to help the Munchkins. It can work cap wise with some effort. If the bigger deal was undertaken less salary from Hemsky would have to be retained.

    I get the feeling Katz is tight. If the Flames could have got Couturier for taking on Meszaros, the Oilers should have been all over that, and we know MacT was talking a lot with madman Holmgren. If the complinace buyout has a cap hit of 1/3 (can’t remember) we are talking 1.33M.

    The only reason to not take Mesz, buy him out and get Couturier instead of Gordon is he’s still injured (which he isn’t if the Flyers tried to move him) or tight purse strings, if you have a compliance buy out and cash. There would have been money saved in using SC instead of Gordon in the short term.

    These are the type of deals that take nearly there to right there. We haven’t seen the consummation yet, and I am starting to think it’s about money. The final 4 were all teams that did good deals to get over the top (including the Pens despite having their talent). At the cap again with a questionable roster. Not the sign of a well managed team. Horse traders apply here.

    Of course Mac gets a pass for now but he has already not done or couldn’t do things we hear are out there and worked on elsewhere and make good sense – why not?

  56. Doomoil says:

    That article literally says nothing.

    A therapist prescribed anti depression medication apparently?

  57. Melman says:

    One point on Hemsky I haven’t heard is the insurance for the 2RW spot he provides if/when Yak hits a sophomore slump spell. Having an extra player who is a legit top 6 options seems smart.

  58. Doomoil says:

    FastOil: What are the chances Hemsky is healthy at the deadline? They have said they don’t want him, he will not be back and is UFA after this year. Risky thinking that you can deal him then.

    Hemsky at 50% for Kulemin. Or better, Hemsky and NS for Phaneuf and Kulemin. Leafs gain cap and rid themselves of two they don’t seem to appreciate, we gain a 1 LD and winger who can play and is large to help the Munchkins. It can work cap wise with some effort. If the bigger deal was undertaken less salary from Hemsky would have to be retained.

    I get the feeling Katz is tight. If the Flames could have got Couturier for taking on Meszaros, the Oilers should have been all over that, and we know MacT was talking a lot with madman Holmgren. If the complinace buyout has a cap hit of 1/3 (can’t remember) we are talking 1.33M.

    The only reason to not take Mesz, buy him out and get Couturier instead of Gordon is he’s still injured (which he isn’t if the Flyers tried to move him) or tight purse strings, if you have a compliance buy out and cash. There would have been money saved in using SC instead of Gordon in the short term.

    These are the type of deals that take nearly there to right there. We haven’t seen the consummationyet, and I am starting to think it’s about money. The final 4 were all teams that did good deals to get over the top (including the Pens despite having their talent). At the cap again with a questionable roster. Not the sign of a well managed team. Horse traders apply here.

    Of course Mac gets a pass for now but he has already not done or couldn’t do things we hear are out there and worked on elsewhere and make good sense – why not?

    The couturier and mesz deal was for giordano.

    Just because A team was offered a deal doesn’t mean that we were offered the same.

  59. FastOil says:

    Doomoil: The couturier and mesz deal was for giordano.

    Just because A team was offered a deal doesn’t mean that we were offered the same.

    True but that doesn’t mean there wasn’t something, and we know Holmgren likes Smid. Are deals again not getting done despite a new GM because of everyone’s extortionate demands, or something else?

    If a team won’t make “bold moves” progress will be slow, and maybe not at all. At the end of the day, to win now a 1 LD is the best bet, even if not absolutely required. There are blue chips to move. In the short term there are teams that need to move salary. Are the Oilers so unfortunate and so much the ugly sister that no one wants to deal? Is Calgary prettier? Sather seemed to do fine in poverty years and pre boom.

    There is either a 1. lack of skill, 2. lack of desire or 3. an interfering owner. 1 = really bad, 2= bad, 3 = find a new favourite team toute suite. I know, impossible.

  60. stevezie says:

    FastOil: What are the chances Hemsky is healthy at the deadline? They have said they don’t want him, he will not be back and is UFA after this year. Risky thinking that you can deal him then.

    You misunderstand me. I am not saying they can just deal him at the deadline. My point is predicated on your assumption that he will be untradeable then. I am saying he is practically untradeable now. So if we’re going to get nothing (or practically nothing) anyway, we might as well get the season (or half season or whatever) of Hemsky.

    If we can trade him for Coutourier, good. What makes you think they are turning down legit offers for Hemsky?

    Melman:
    One point on Hemsky I haven’t heard is the insurance for the 2RW spot he provides if/when Yak hits a sophomore slump spell.Having an extra player who is a legit top 6 options seems smart.

    I say that all the time. Me. Only read my posts from now on.

  61. Young Oil says:

    Does anyone think we could get Max Talbot from Philly for cheap? Like a 2015 3rd and a middling prospect (Musil for example)?

    We could probably plug him anywhere in our bottom 6 and he’d be an upgrade.

    Get him, as well as Clifford and/or Lewis from LA, and our bottom 6 looks a lot better instantly.

    Theoretically:

    2015 3rd+Musil to Philly for Talbot

    2014 1st+2014 3rd to LA for 2014 2nd+Clifford+Lewis (add or remove picks if necessary).

    That gives us a bottom 6 of:

    Gordon-Clifford-Talbot
    Lewis-Joensuu-Jones
    Smyth-Lander-Brown as HS/AHL.

    Also, NYR needs a #2RW, Hemsky could slot in perfectly there. If we could trade Hemsky+Cheap roster player (Brown/Potter/Larssen), retaining as much salary as possible, for something like Boyle+Kreider and/or Palmieri, that would greatly help our bottom 6 as well.

    In short, there are likely tons of options out there that could prevent Jones/Smyth from starting the season on the third line. Something needs to be done. There’s still lots of time, but I get more worried with each passing day.

  62. böökje says:

    HEY LT – I thought that given that you were on vacation, you could have the articles posted by 6am as opposed to your normal slackass 7am, but it looks like you are just wasting your vacation on other things.

    I might cancel my subscription if this doesn’t improve!

  63. Lowetide says:

    böökje:
    HEY LT – I thought that given that you were on vacation, you could have the articles posted by 6am as opposed to your normal slackass 7am, but it looks like you are just wasting your vacation on other things.

    I might cancel my subscription if this doesn’t improve!

    lol. I have a surprise for you, just posted. :-)

  64. Oilking says:

    1: win, possibly big win, possibly trivial
    2: loss, possibly big, possibly recoverable. He was defo better than jones.
    3: win, compared to past performance
    4: win, but really tambo’s loss
    5: draw. really a loss, but probably necessary so mulligan.
    6: loss. We needed a number 1, not a number 4 Dman. Better than doing nothing I suppose. Upgrade on Schultz senior or Whitney.
    7: win
    8: win
    9: win
    10: irrelevant
    11: irrelevant
    12: win
    13: draw. Required due to loss of harti.
    14: win
    15: jury is out, but ill call it a win for showing up and trying to improve the team. Not sure he succeeded, but I hope so.

    Not listed: dumping deadweight contracts: big win

    Overall: 9 wins, 2 losses. Sounds like a job well done but really, this isn’t a playoff team.
    Add a real 3lw, 3rw, and 1d, at the cost of hemsky schultz and picks, and this team could be a contender.

  65. russ99 says:

    Hemsky is an easy call since his trade value is minimal to none right now.

    It’s obvious we need to keep him around as an extra scoring forward on the third line and for power play time.

    If one of the top 6 gets hurt, he slides right in with little drop-off. Maybe even try Hall at C for the couple of weeks that RNH is out, and I may get my wish of an “EA Sports” line of Yakupov – Hall – Hemsky… ;)

    And if his play/numbers improve, we can get a good asset at the deadline with the trading team only paying for 2 months of his contract.

    Makes more sense than dealing him for pennies on the dollar now, plus we don’t have a cap crunch.

  66. russ99 says:

    Ference is a win. Best available FA defenseman in an offseason where nobody signed or traded for a top pairing guy.

    A much needed experienced hand on the D who can mentor players and shut down opponents.

    Is it the top-pairing guy we need, no. But we’re not going to get one of those unless we trade one of the 5 kids or until J. Schultz, Klefbom or Nurse develops into one. I’m betting on the latter.

  67. Zipdot says:

    God, I remember hoping and saying “Belanger has a chance to bounce back this season”. “He could end up being a real helping hand this season and surprise us all.”

    So sad. Why does this never happen? Oh right – Oilers.

  68. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Gerta Rauss:
    RexLibris,

    The only problem I see with that is we’d be selling them at the deadline because we would have missed the playoffs again…yes..?

    If we add a 3LW and 4C via UFA, run with the current D, and we’re out of the playoffs at the deadline,sure, the above makes sense.

    If we leave the station with the current group(no additions/subtractions)..and we miss the playoffs and wind up selling at the deadline, well….

    Not necessarily… Rex may well be considering the Sharks model of sell degrading assets high regardless of standings position.

    SJS did quite well after dumping some tired players for picks. Great asset management.

  69. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Woodguy: In a world where Dustin Penner signs a $2MM 1 year contract, Jones signing is a loss and its not close.

    Bingo!

    If Jones was a late, late Summer addition at the league min. for the 12-14 F position, fine… a little depth after failing to strike gold elsewhere…

    I can’t find a reason for why MacT bailed out Jones’ agent.

    Ribs:
    Interesting read on Gilbert Brule…. http://www.theprovince.com/sports/hockey/canucks-hockey/resurrection+Gilbert+Brule/8668967/story.html

    “I went to see a therapist, who prescribed temporary medication, and I really don’t believe in taking drugs for a problem like that. I thought it should have been dealt with in a different way. But the Oilers wanted me back on the ice as soon as possible. It’s a business and I understand that, and I’m not trying to throw the Oilers under the bus; they reacted as any team would and should.

    Ugh….

    That’s got KL “tough guy” written all over it.

  70. Ribs says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: That’s got KL “tough guy” written all over it.

    It’s not that bad of a comment, it’s just that these things just keep piling up. You gain a reputation after a while and it doesn’t look good. You want to make Edmonton an appealing place for players to come to and having stuff like this come out every gaddamned summer does not help. Oh well. Glad to read he’s feeling better.

  71. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Ribs: It’s not that bad of a comment, it’s just that these things just keep piling up. You gain a reputation after a while and it doesn’t look good. You want to make Edmonton an appealing place for players to come to and having stuff like this come out every gaddamned summer does not help. Oh well. Glad to read he’s feeling better.

    It’s definitively not a welcoming environment when player after player publicly complains about health mismanagement.

Leave a Reply

Want to join the discussion?
Feel free to contribute!

Leave a Reply

© Copyright - Lowetide.ca