CROSS EYED AND PAINLESS

At the ’13 draft, I think MacT married ‘saw him good’ with ‘arithmetic’ & arrived at cross-eyed and painless. Seriously.

Facts are simple and facts are straight
Facts are lazy and facts are late
Facts all come with points of view
Facts don’t do what I want them to
Facts just twist the truth around
Facts are living turned inside out
Facts are getting the best of them
Facts are nothing on the face of things
Facts don’t stain the furniture
Facts go out and slam the door
Facts are written all over your face
Facts continue to change their shape

-David Byrne

nugeBack before the Oilers took the Golden Nugge (and since) the club always did this thing I call walkabout. We’ve talked about it for ages here, and honestly it was the one ‘roll eye’ thing that remained in the organizational redbook that drove me nuts. Stu MacGregor was risk averse, but damned if they’d draft for need and go off the grid for some swinging Dick every once in awhile. Jesse Niinimaki was a walkabout, Colin McDonald too. If the Oilers had stayed the draft course in 2003 they could have saved that year’s edition with the McDonald selection. The Hesketh pick was walkabout, Abney too. The Moroz pick–universally reviled–was not a reach on the McKenzie list but is generally regarded as being a recent example.

RECENT ‘DRAFT WALKABOUT’ SELECTIONS

  • 2009-Troy Hesketh selected #71 overall, unranked
  • 2009-Cameron Abney selected #82 overall, unranked
  • 2009-Kyle Bigos selected #99 overall, unranked
  • 2010-Jeremie Blain selected #91, not ranked
  • 2012-Jujhar Khaira selected #63, not ranked
  • 2012-Erik Gustafsson selected #93, not ranked

From the 18 selections in the top 100 under MBS (2008-12) these six names could safely be considered walkabout (I’ve not included Moroz you’ll notice so this is open to discussion). That’s 33%–one in three–that’s a walkabout, all of them taking place between #’s 63 and 99.

2013 RUN THROUGH WALKABOUT

We have a new toy this year–the 2013 NHL draft rankings “Consensus top 100″ from Derek Zona. I usually use Bob McKenzie as the industry standard, but since I used BM and Corey Pronman Saturday for a similar post let’s use Zona’s.

  • Darnell Nurse at #7–Consensus #8
  • Marc-Olivier Roy at #56–Consensus #59
  • Bogdan Yakimov at #83–Consensus #85
  • Anton Slepyshev at #88–Consensus #68
  • Jackson Houck at #94–Consensus  not ranked (Pronman at #91)
  • Kyle Platzer at #96–Consensus not ranked

The Oilers also selected Greg Chase #188, and he was in fact on the Consensus list (#96). I’ve included Pronman’s ranking of Houck here because I think it’s pertinent. The Oilers appear to have avoided walkabout in the top 100 very well, and in fact grabbed Chase later to make up for the Platzer selection.

I know this is a similar post to the Saturday item, but wanted to add to the discussion.

QUESTIONS!

  1. I’m using the list to represent ‘non-walkabout’ which means (technically) that if you chose the #100 name at #1 it would not qualify as a reach. Is there a consensus number we can reach for the top 100? Possibly staggered (within three for the top 15, etc)?
  2. The selections in the 90′s represent half of the walkabouts 2008-12 and the one walkabout from this year’s list is #96. Is that reasonable? I wonder if it makes any sense at all to expect the #96 pick to be among the top 100.

Thanks.

 

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55 Responses to "CROSS EYED AND PAINLESS"

  1. Lowetide says:

    So I’m watching tsn just now and Dallas Eakins is talking about Nurse and they’re discussing Nurse and I’m thinking it sure sounds like they like Nurse. And then Eakins says ‘everyone thinks the coaches decided who makes the team, but we don’t, the players do!” and I’m all well that doesn’t matter to Nurse because he’ll be in the OHL.

    RIGHT?

  2. Jon K says:

    First of all LT, the pressured tone of your comment suggests either panic or alcohol. By any chance are you sampling anything nice tonight?

    Secondly, by all reports Nurse was not even the best defender at the Oilers development camp last week. There’s no way that Klefbom AND Nurse make the team out of camp.

    Third, it would be utter lunacy to let Nurse stay with the NHL team, since he can continue to improve and progress in the OHL still. He’s the definition of a “raw” player who is not ready for the NHL. He needs to work on his skillset and develop physically still.

    I think that, in all the circumstances, this might be the coach talking nice and trying to foster a sense of opportunity for those individuals coming to camp in the fall. The same individuals who Eakins will have to judge objectively and harshly before sending them away. That would be my interpretation of the comments.

    If it’s not that, then the Oilers are mad and continue to let some decisions be governed not by logic. I wish we could stop saying that when trying to analyze the decisions of Oilers management.

    On the topic of the draft and walkabout, do others feel that Bo Horvat would have been a mini-walkabout at 7th overall? I thought so at the draft, but further reading and consumption of reports have since impressed me. It’d be nice knowing that Horvat was coming to bolster the middle of the ice.

  3. Lowetide says:

    Jon K: lol. No alcohol, but will be barbequing in about an hour so there’s a devil on my shoulder discussing options. :-)

  4. striatic says:

    i don’t see Muir referenced here anywhere. would he be considered a walkabout?

  5. Lowetide says:

    striatic:
    i don’t see Muir referenced here anywhere. would he be considered a walkabout?

    No, because he was taken outside the top 100 overall (#113). Walkabouts outside the top 100 are where they should be located.

  6. Woodguy says:

    Lowetide:
    So I’m watching tsn just now and Dallas Eakins is talking about Nurse and they’re discussing Nurse and I’m thinking it sure sounds like they like Nurse. And then Eakins says ‘everyone thinks the coaches decided who makes the team, but we don’t, the players do!” and I’m all well that doesn’t matter to Nurse because he’ll be in the OHL.

    RIGHT?

    Giving a kid some hope is not a crime.

    Giving the media a sound bite you have no intention on really following through on is ok too.

    Contracts determine who makes the team more than anything.

    Next year those questions are real, this year they are not.

  7. dessert1111 says:

    Re: Defining walkabout

    I think there needs to be some sort of staggering formula, like the “within 3 picks if in the top 15″ you mentioned. Maybe it’s within 7 for the first round, within 10 for the second, within 20 for the third, etc.

    However you’d choose to define it, I think selecting someone ranked, I don’t know, 56th at #32 overall screams off the board to me. Selecting Platzer 96th? Doesn’t bother me one bit.

  8. dessert1111 says:

    By the way, to the Edmontonians out there, I’m driving from Ottawa to Vancouver next week and will be staying in Edmonton for a few nights. It’ll be my first time anywhere west of Ontario, so if anyone has suggestions on things to do or see in the area I am all ears :)

  9. Lowetide says:

    dessert1111:
    Re: Defining walkabout

    I think there needs to be some sort of staggering formula, like the “within 3 picks if in the top 15″ you mentioned. Maybe it’s within 7 for the first round, within 10 for the second, within 20 for the third, etc.

    However you’d choose to define it, I think selecting someone ranked, I don’t know, 56th at #32 overall screams off the board to me. Selecting Platzer 96th? Doesn’t bother me one bit.

    Thanks. Very helpful.

  10. lance says:

    Didn’t Rom have some system for defining the walkabout? Was around the draft I think.

    I’d love to see some side threads here that remain more than 6 hours. One on draft math, one on shot quality, one on Corsi, I guess, and a couple others. So many great thoughts lost in the mountain of comments.

    Romulus! Where for was your idea?

  11. Ducey says:

    LT, Ben Betker was ranked #99 in the pre draft issue of the Hockey News. If that is even a little reliable then picking him at #158 was a pretty good deal. He was ranked by Central scouting at #147 NA

    Platzer was also ranked by central scouting at #110 NA

    I don’t think you can say taking a guy close to where central scouting has them is a walkabout.

  12. sliderule says:

    Lowetide,

    Has Eakins even seen Nurse play?I thought he ran a marathon during development camp.

    I think Eakins was using coach speak were you always give a player hope.

    All reports from camp say Nurse is raw and skinny and probably two to three years away.

  13. Lowetide says:

    sliderule:
    Lowetide,

    Has Eakins even seen Nurse play?I thought he ran a marathon during development camp.

    I think Eakins was using coach speak were you always give a player hope.

    All reports from camp say Nurse is raw and skinny and probably two to three years away.

    I think he did, recall seeing him maybe not for all of the days

  14. Lowetide says:

    Ducey:
    LT, Ben Betker was ranked #99 in the pre draft issue of the Hockey News.If that is even a little reliable then picking him at #158 was a pretty good deal.He was ranked by Central scouting at #147 NA

    Platzer was also ranked by central scouting at #110 NA

    I don’t think you can say taking a guy close to where central scouting has them is a walkabout.

    Yeah, hard to say. I’ve focused on all of the top 100 for now but Betker is interesting because he is the one guy who isn’t terribly skilled. Want to have a long look at him.

  15. Dead Cat Bounce says:

    dessert1111:
    By the way, to the Edmontonians out there, I’m driving from Ottawa to Vancouver next week and will be staying in Edmonton for a few nights. It’ll be my first time anywhere west of Ontario, so if anyone has suggestions on things to do or see in the area I am all ears

    Calgary and Banff are certainly worth a visit.

  16. Dead Cat Bounce says:

    Renaud Lavoie ‏@RenLavoieRDS 29m

    Éric Bélanger will play in the KHL next season for Yekaterinburg. One year contract. #RDS

  17. alice13 says:

    A simple rule of thumb might be draft no, plus 50%
    Even works for the small no’s if you round up.

    Draft 10 – should be in the consensus 15
    1OV should be in top 2 (1.5 rounded up)
    Pick 50 in the top 75

    Not perfect, but you don’t need to create and remember bands, the scale slides as it goes.
    It’s just a litmus test anyhow, so I don’t think too much rigour should be applied – else people might think that it means more than it does. We’re talking about ranking and drafting teenagers, and some of them are goalies.

  18. Lois Lowe says:

    dessert1111,

    Stop through Elk Island National Park and see buffalo. Actual, real live buffalo. It’s so fricking cool!

  19. Lowetide says:

    If you have time the Jasper to Banff highway and Lake Louise. Spend a morning in Lake Louise. Walk around it, grab a hot chocolate and a blanket (if it’s cold they have blankets and it’s always cold in the morning when I go).

    It’s so beautiful.

  20. Bruce McCurdy says:

    alice13: A simple rule of thumb might be draft no, plus 50%
    Even works for the small no’s if you round up.

    Alice, you beat me to it! I was going to suggest the exact same thing, scout’s honour.

    Amd yes, that method does indicate that a #56 picked at #32 is a walkabout, though not by much. The same player should go at #37 or later to be in the “natural” range.

  21. rich says:

    Dead Cat Bounce: Renaud Lavoie ‏@RenLavoieRDS 29mÉric Bélanger will play in the KHL next season for Yekaterinburg. One year contract. #RDS

    I believe that’s where they shot the Czar. Hopefully Belanger has more success there.

  22. lance says:

    n + 50% makes for a pretty skinny group at the top of the first round and a pretty broad range at the back. Rom had a plan that involved a variable degree of latitude as the numbers departed from the origin.

    The best parts of Edmonton all involve the people who live there. Enjoy the prairies, you’ll have time.

  23. rickithebear says:

    Desert 1111:

    Which route are you going
    1A-south states to winipeg
    1B Canadian shield to Winnipeg
    2A winipeg to Regina
    2B Peg-Yorkton-Saskatoon
    3A regina to Calgary
    3BRegina to SKtoon
    4 Sktoon to Edmonton
    with a family?

  24. lance says:

    rickithebear:
    Desert 1111:

    Which route are you going
    1A-south states to winipeg
    1B Canadian shield to Winnipeg
    2A winipeg to Regina
    2B Peg-Yorkton-Saskatoon
    3A regina to Calgary
    3BRegina to SKtoon
    4 Sktoon to Edmonton
    with a family?

    Like they’re different.

  25. Ca$h-Money! says:

    Lowetide,

    Nurse has access to the internet and television.

    He needs to feel like he can make the team… or bust his ass all year and make it straight to the NHL next year.

    I don’t want him to do either of those things, but I want him to feel like he can. It’s great motivation.

    If a coach said “no matter how hard he tries, he will fail to achieve his goal, because his goal is dumb” it wouldn’t be advisable. I fully expect coaches and management to say Nurse has a legitimate shot at the team. I also fully expect them to send him back to the OHL.

    It’s weird, I write these comments, sometimes without reading all the comments, then after the fact I read the comments and realise I basically just copied Woodguy.

  26. Bruce McCurdy says:

    rich: I believe that’s where they shot the Czar. Hopefully Belanger has more success there.

    …than the Czar?

  27. Bruce McCurdy says:

    lance: n + 50% makes for a pretty skinny group at the top of the first round and a pretty broad range at the back.

    Exactamundo. That strikes me as the way it should be.

  28. Lowetide says:

    Bruce McCurdy: Alice, you beat me to it! I was going to suggest the exact same thing, scout’s honour.

    Amd yes, that method does indicate that a #56 picked at #32 is a walkabout, though not by much. The same player should go at #37 or later to be in the “natural” range.

    See, this is perfect! So we can have ‘slight reach’ for Moroz, that would be okay right? And Niinimaki would be massive reach? Or is there a better word? Insane? :-)

    Anyway, thanks Alice and thanks Bruce.

  29. jfry says:

    A couple open threads on a few often discussed topics, as lance suggested, might be a good idea. Would become a bit like a few very specific forum threads.

  30. Kitchener says:

    Fun in Edmonton:
    - White Avenue (shops, bars, ‘culture’)
    - West Edmonton Mall (if kids + $, spend a day at the water park & amusement park, etc.)
    - Downtown stuff / new arena district
    - Winspear Center (world-class concert hall; better than anything out East; an organ to die for)
    - cycle the river valley (a multi-day venture if you like)
    - Ravine Drive @ 135 st. (Pocklington’s old place; bench with a nice view)

    Food:
    - High Level Diner (breakfast)
    - The Hat (burgers downtown)
    - Sicilian Pasta Kitchen or Bua Thai Restaurant (supper; both downtown beside the basicila where Gretz tied the knot; players have been known to visit Joey’s across the street too)
    - Vi’s for Pies (dessert)

    Draft:
    – Using picks to select consensus prospects is in line with “The Wisdom of Crowds”, by James Surowiecki. Once required reading at Google, the basic idea is that well-organized crowds are always smarter than the smartest individuals. Individual geniuses can get lucky or have frequent above average results, but over time they’re no match for well-formed consensus. I like the mix of this year’s draft: many consensus picks with a dash of luck/genius/idiocy.

  31. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Lowetide,

    Get on to that damn vacation!!

    Oh, and… great tune from a great, great album.

  32. Lowetide says:

    Romulus Apotheosis:
    Lowetide,

    Get on to that damn vacation!!

    Oh, and… great tune from a great, great album.

    lol. I AM on vacation. Just finished another rye, BBQ’d awhile ago and took the dogs for a walk. AND I get to stay up late and the sun is shining!!!!!

    Agree on the song and album. Man, loved that band during the late 70s and early 80s. Brilliant records

  33. justDOit says:

    rich: Hopefully Belanger has more success there.

    This might help:

    http://www.parachuteshop.com/

  34. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Lowetide: Agree on the song and album. Man, loved that band during the late 70s and early 80s. Brilliant records

    Haha, my season ticket buddies & I used to play Strat-O-Matic hockey to “Remain In Light” & a few other epic albums of the day. That would be the fall of 1980, the first year Strat-O-Matic had the Oilers & other WHA teams.

    Once a nerd …

    Another Talking Heads classic, “Fear Of Music”, was also a regular in the rotation. Great, great band. Remain a huge fan of David Byrne to this day. (Plus I’m still in love with Tina Weymouth.)

  35. Bar_Qu says:

    Royal Alberta Museum.

    people always forget its there and it is great.

    And so is the Telus Science center, especially with kids along (if you’re lucky you’ll see McCurdy there desperately trying to convince grown men to look up in the sky once in a while, b/c it is so cool!) ;-)

  36. Lowetide says:

    So if I have the 50% thing correct, it would look like this (using NHL Numbers/Zona until near 100 and then Pronman afterward)

    Darnell Nurse at #7–Consensus #8 (#7-#12 acceptable)
    Marc-Olivier Roy at #56–Consensus #59 (#56-#84 acceptable)
    Bogdan Yakimov at #83–Consensus #85 (#83-#125 acceptable)
    Anton Slepyshev at #88–Consensus #68 (#88-#132 acceptable)
    Jackson Houck at #94–Pronman at #91 (#94-#141 acceptable)
    Kyle Platzer at #96–Pronman at #151 (#96-#144 acceptable)

    Is that right? And then the only reach would be Platzer and even then it’s less than 10 slots? Is this correct?

  37. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    lance:
    Didn’t Rom have some system for defining the walkabout?Was around the draft I think.

    I’d love to see some side threads here that remain more than 6 hours.One on draft math, one on shot quality, one on Corsi, I guess, and a couple others.So many great thoughts lost in the mountain of comments.

    Romulus!Where for was your idea?

    haha…

    it was here:

    http://lowetide.ca/blog/2013/06/2013-entry-draft-post-3-edm-lak-and-walkabout.html

    For our purposes today, I’ll be using Rom’s outer marker
    #1-3 picks = variance of 3 spots
    #4-8 picks = variance of 5 spots
    #9-15 picks = variance of 7 spots
    #16-25 picks = variance of 10
    #26-35 = variance of 10
    #36-45 = variance of 10
    #46-55 = variance of 10
    #56-70 = variance of 15
    #71-85 = variance of 15
    #86-100 = variance of 15

    not entirely sure that Alice’s system works out to much different and it is probably easier to master! :)

  38. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: not entirely sure that Alice’s system works out to much different and it is probably easier to master!

    I’m going to leave that sentence there for posterity and highlight it for hilarity.

    go ahead torture yourself reading that jumble. Sure it makes sense… but, why is it so damn awkward!?

    Lowetide: lol. I AM on vacation. Just finished another rye, BBQ’d awhile ago and took the dogs for a walk. AND I get to stay up late and the sun is shining!!!!!

    Agree on the song and album. Man, loved that band during the late 70s and early 80s. Brilliant records

    Rye, huh… you really are Canadian, aren’t you?

    next time you reach for a sipping whiskey try Elijah Craig 12 year bourbon. I’ve enjoyed a few tonight. I blame it for the above sentence.

    having some friends of mine play some talking heads for me and my lady at our wedding. we like them that much. one of the top bands ever.

  39. Lowetide says:

    Rye. I was DONE with rye, miles back, and I ended up drinking it again last summer and now Crown Royal is back after a 2 decade hiatus. I’d try getting my wife back on gin, but that’s how the kids got here. :-)

  40. wheatnoil says:

    So, using the Draft # + 50% rule, the following are the walk-a-bout picks for the 2013 draft (using McKenzie’s list as the consensus, and I gave teams the benefit of the doubt and rounded up so for example an 11th overall pick would allow a pick up to 17th on the consensus list):

    2) Barkov (ranked 4th)
    13) Morrissey (ranked 28th)
    22) Poirier (ranked 46th)
    26) Theodore (ranked 44th)
    27) Dano (ranked 53rd)

    So 5/30 or 17% of first round picks in 2013 were walkabouts based on this ranking.

    That’s not bad, but I’m going to do the second round to see if things go off track. Also, given how deep the draft was this year and how varied the consensus rankings were, perhaps I should do a different year to give a fair test.

  41. speeds says:

    It’s different every draft. I don’t know what a good general guideline is, but it’s different every draft.

    This year, any of the top 4 could have reasonably gone in the top 2. In 2010, anyone but Hall or Seguin at 2 would have been a reach, IMO

  42. wheatnoil says:

    Round 2 Walkabouts:
    40) Elie (ranked 66th)
    49) Paquin-Boudreau (ranked as Honorable Mention, so between 76 – 80)

    I stopped at 53 because Mckenzie’s list only goes to 80, so the rule stops applying after that using Mckenzie’s draft ranking. Out of 53 picks, 7 were walkabouts so about 13%. I would say that’s a reasonable number to say the rule works for this draft year. The vast majority of picks fall into a normal range (for at least the top 50) and just over 10% of picks were reaches made by teams. Some were minor reaches (Barkov) and some were larger (Poirier).

    (In hindsight, I should have used Zona’s consensus ranking so I could have gone higher, but I realized that half-way through this process)

  43. rich says:

    @ Justdoit:

    Nice.

    @ Bruce:

    Yes. Tis better to shoot than be shot. Although w/Belanger’s hands he could probably use a few lessons from the firing squad.

    Now back to the thread. Or LT’s Crown Royal.

  44. wheatnoil says:

    Hmmm… looking at the 2012 draft, things get a little screwy. Using Zona’s consensus numbers, fully 21 of the 61 picks in the first two rounds were walkabout picks in the first two rounds. Of those 21, two of them were ‘in range’ if you use Mckenzie’s list.

    We’d have to look at more years to see if 2012 was an anomaly, but when one third of picks in the first two rounds are walkabouts from the consensus, I come up with 3 possible explanations:

    a) there’s a problem with out definition of walkabout
    b) there’s a problem with the consensus ranking
    c) teams go the walkabout extremely often and so the Oilers may have actually been drafting safer than most teams
    d) 2012 was an anomaly

    Given the relatively rarity of the walkabout in the 2013 draft, I tend to think “d” is true, but perhaps we should be asking, “How often does the average team walkabout in the draft?” and also “What happens to these walkabout picks? Are they more, less, or equally likely to turn out compared to consensus picks?”

  45. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Lowetide: Is that right?

    Not quite. Work off the consensus #, & divide by 1.5 to establish your “walkabout threshold”.

    So Nurse at consensus #8 would be a walkabout if he was selected higher than 8 / 1.5 = 5 (rounding, as Alice suggests). Roy at consensus #59 would be a walkabout if he was picked any earlier than 59/1.5 = 39. … and so on.

  46. Bruce McCurdy says:

    wheatnoil: 2) Barkov (ranked 4th)
    13) Morrissey (ranked 28th)
    22) Poirier (ranked 46th)
    26) Theodore (ranked 44th)
    27) Dano (ranked 53rd)

    I’d argue that Barkov wasn’t walkabout; using Alice’s rounding up method 4 / 1.5 = 2.7 which rounds as high as 2. Similarly a #2 ranked player wouldn’t be a walkabout if picked #1.

    All the rest are indeed walkabouts by that definition.
    Alice, feel free to confirm or deny. To me that logically seems about right. It’s not like Florida went way off the board there.

  47. Lowetide says:

    Bruce McCurdy: Not quite. Work off the consensus #, & divide by 1.5 to establish your “walkabout threshold”.

    So Nurse at consensus #8 would be a walkabout if he was selected higher than 8 / 1.5 = 5 (rounding, as Alice suggests). Roy at consensus #59 would be a walkabout if he was picked any earlier than 59/1.5 = 39. … and so on.

    Ah. Gotcha. Okay.

  48. wheatnoil says:

    Bruce McCurdy: I’d argue that Barkov wasn’t walkabout; using Alice’s rounding up method 4 / 1.5 = 2.7 which rounds as high as 2. Similarly a #2 ranked player wouldn’t be a walkabout if picked #1.

    Ah I see. I was going the other way. Picking player “A” at draft number “Y” is acceptable if Player “A” has a consensus ranking equal or less than Y x 1.5. In Barkov’s case: a draft #2 is acceptable if consensus is 3 or higher (2 x 1.5).

    Regardless, logically I agree with you that Barkov wasn’t really off the board.

  49. wheatnoil says:

    wheatnoil:
    I come up with 3 possible explanations:

    Damn it… I meant 4. This doesn’t bode well for people trusting my math.

  50. alice13 says:

    I was using it WheatNOil’s way too, ie. start with the draft number. Thus for slot 3 you have 4.5 rounding up should be in the top 5. The number 2 slot is a bit ugly, but really the mechanism isn’t around figuring out the top few anyhow, it’s more a guide for the rest.

  51. DeadmanWaking says:

    alice13: We’re talking about ranking and drafting teenagers, and some of them are goalies.

    11 Letter words that start with “goa”: goalkeepers, goaltenders, goaltending, goatsuckers

    Clearly you got that right: not all goatsuckers are created equal as evidenced by Ron Hextall

    The 1.5 heuristic is pretty good, despite its cuddly Texas conception in the glorious year 1972 (my newly declared personal dividing line for all things fusty).

    This is the right way to create a sliding window on a power-law curve fit, which is what I obtained from the Pepin data.

    Eventually, though, one has to decide whether you believe in the wisdom of crowds. If we could put Bob McKenzie into the red-haired replicator, how much variation would we see from list to list? Would it converge on a judgement superior to any list considered individually?

    The other factor is that it’s not a selection against a list. You are faced with a set of players remaining. If Taylor Hall slides to fifth, any pick other than Sequin is a walkabout country mile. You’re actually faced with rank judgments on the day.

    Does a player become more suspect the further he falls?

    Mean rankings miss an important statistic: consensus or lack thereof. The obvious way to refine this heuristic would be to express it using the 1st and 3rd quartiles. Quartiles are a nice estimator of consensus. If the 1st and 3rd are far apart, you haven’t got any. You need roughly one trusty red-haired BM for each key on that calculator for the quartiles to become meaningful.

    The 1.5 multiple smells right because it implies there’s no such thing as walk-about after the second half of the fifth round, if you grab any player still on more than one list. Bonus: it under-promises and over-delivers having one term (with only the middle digit after the point) and no radicals or transcendentals not available from Texas in 1972.

  52. dessert1111 says:

    rickithebear:
    Desert 1111:

    Which route are you going
    1A-south states to winipeg
    1B Canadian shield to Winnipeg
    2A winipeg to Regina
    2B Peg-Yorkton-Saskatoon
    3A regina to Calgary
    3BRegina to SKtoon
    4 Sktoon to Edmonton
    with a family?

    Going from Northern Ontario to Winnipeg, Regina, Saskatoon, Edmonton, Calgary, Vancouver, then the ferry to Victoria. Spending the most time in Edmonton because that’s where we have free accommodations. Just me and the girlfriend (we’re in our 20s) — we’re relocating to Victoria, BC to do my Masters.

    Thanks for the trip advice everyone! Lots of great stuff here and I’m bookmarking this thread for reference. It is very much appreciated. Definitely want to take time to see the parks, and the girlfriend is very intent on stopping at Lake Louise too.

    Following the Oilers closely makes me hear so much about the city, it’ll be interesting to actually explore it :D

  53. Bruce McCurdy says:

    dessert1111: Going from Northern Ontario to Winnipeg, Regina, Saskatoon, Edmonton, Calgary, Vancouver, then the ferry to Victoria. Spending the most time in Edmonton because that’s where we have free accommodations. Just me and the girlfriend (we’re in our 20s) — we’re relocating to Victoria, BC to do my Masters.

    Thanks for the trip advice everyone! Lots of great stuff here and I’m bookmarking this thread for reference. It is very much appreciated. Definitely want to take time to see the parks, and the girlfriend is very intent on stopping at Lake Louise too.

    Following the Oilers closely makes me hear so much about the city, it’ll be interesting to actually explore it

    Enjoy the trip, including the drive. My family came west for the same reason, all the way from Newfoundland to Edmonton, for my dad to finish his PhD. Left an indelible impression on me of the whole country, not just the destination point.

    If you do happen to make it to Telus World of Science, make sure you pop out to the observatory. If it’s a Monday or Tuesday, you’ll likely find me there, but worth the extra short walk in any event. The constant caveat, “weather permitting”, applies.

  54. dessert1111 says:

    Thanks Bruce, I’ll for sure check out the World of Science. We live in such a large country that the opportunities to really see it seem rare. Definitely looking forward to the drive. That’s the main reason we’re driving instead of flying (that and can’t bear the thought of getting rid of all my books, not to mention our two rabbits are making the move too).

    Also excited because it’s 15 degrees cooler in Edmonton than here right now.

  55. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    dessert1111: Going from Northern Ontario to Winnipeg, Regina, Saskatoon, Edmonton, Calgary, Vancouver, then the ferry to Victoria. Spending the most time in Edmonton because that’s where we have free accommodations. Just me and the girlfriend (we’re in our 20s) — we’re relocating to Victoria, BC to do my Masters.

    Thanks for the trip advice everyone! Lots of great stuff here and I’m bookmarking this thread for reference. It is very much appreciated. Definitely want to take time to see the parks, and the girlfriend is very intent on stopping at Lake Louise too.

    Following the Oilers closely makes me hear so much about the city, it’ll be interesting to actually explore it

    I’m from Victoria, lived there for 24 years and did my BA at UVIC. It’s a very pretty town and the campus is lovely. The climate is explosively mild all year. You’ll either enjoy or hate that.

    Favorite Restaurant:

    Ferris Oyster Bar and Grill: Not just Oysters!!! their whole menu is awesome, cheap and the portions are huge.

    Favorite Pub:

    Doubles/Bartholomew’s: Double’s is a classy martini bar attached to Bart’s which is a dive and has middle aged folks dancing to Fleetwood Mac covers by a crappy series of cover bands (entertaining in its own way)

    and the brew pubs… they are everywhere and very, very good. Swan’s and Spinnaker’s are good choices.

    Favorite Walk:

    Dallas Road: walk along the waterfront from downtown causeway through James Bay past Beacon Hill Park past Clover Point out all the way to Oak Bay and Uplands depending on your desire. Beautiful.

    Favorite Bike Ride:

    City version… same as walk above

    rural version: take the galloping goose trail (starts right downtown) in one of two directions, either is very scenic. the path is well maintained and well used.

    One route (turn left at the junction IIRC) leads to Thetis Lake… perfect end to a hot summer bike ride. pack a lunch.

    When you get to Victoria ask for more if you are interested.

    ——-

    I second the Banff/Lake Louise recommendations. Also… for novelty something like Columbia Icefield, Harrison Hot Springs or Roger’s Pass. Finally, don’t leave the Okanagan without some stone fruit… lots of it.

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