DOUBLE DION KABLAMMO EL KABONG?

The rumors about Dion Phaneuf to Edmonton signal the start of silly season, where a spark grows to a flame and soonafter the entire valley is on fire. This is hockey’s equivalent of a rain delay conversation, a lark, a song, what-if, how-about, hey look there’s some blue sky and they’re removing the tarp.

WHAT WHAT WHAT?

johhhhhh

I know, it’s early Sunday morning and you’ve had one sip of coffee and now Lowetide starts rambling about Dion Phaneuf? What the hell? You’d rather read about Alexei Mikhnov’s traktor farm, right? Well the truth is that Bill Watters threw it out on Oilers Now and so Edmonton deals with it until the next brush fire. The question isn’t “would the Oilers ever, in a million years trade for Phaneuf?” but more like “why would Edmonton do this deal at this time.

Phaneuf is 28, expensive and a year away from free agency. He plays big minutes against tough opponents and has severe zone starts, but he’s also vulnerable to grievous errors of coverage and is less mobile than he was years ago. Dion Phaneuf has a lot of miles on him.

He’s a $6.5M cap hit and then he’s gone, or could be gone. He would certainly be a top pairing defender on the Oilers, and the Oilers could offer him a stronger partner than he had last year. I would guess that the Oilers would have to take on some dollars, but even if they traded Nick Schultz or Laddy Smid for Phaneuf that would represent a $3M cap saving to Toronto (who have given themselves trouble because there are some valued RFA’S to sign and their cap number is $9M but won’t be when Kadri, Gunnarson and Franson are done with them).

 WOULD YOU DO THE TRADE?

phaneuf sledgehammer

I would do a Nick Schultz and a pick trade for Phaneuf, but he has one season remaining on his deal, so Smid wouldn’t be on the table in my war room. If the Oilers could somehow squeeze him from the Big Smoke for Schultz the elder and something else (hell, maybe the cap relief is enough of an extra) the top 6D would look like this:

  • Phaneuf-Petry
  • Smid-J Schultz
  • Ference-Belov/Larsen

That’s a pretty harsh roster turnover, isn’t it? And remember, Phaneuf plays 25 minutes a night although a better defensive team would probably rely on him less than Toronto has year over year.

A couple of final items in regard to the graph above. That’s a truly weird graph there, Dion Phaneuf is in the tough quadrant with a bad color and Gunnarson joins him while the rest of the group swims in safety (for the most part). It’s a pretty drastic usage chart, the Leafs are clearly aware that they’re dealing with some defensive holes at the back of the depth chart.

The other item is Phaneuf’s partner. He got lots of time with Gunnarson, but was also (and Jon mentioned this in the article linked above) spending time with lesser men. This is a list of his dance partners 5×5 last season by total minutes

CHANGING PARTNERS

  1. Carl Gunnarson 253
  2. Korbinian Holzer 229
  3. Mike Kostka 189

Playing big minutes against tough opponents without Gunnarson must have been especially challenging for him.

Bottom line: I wrote about Phaneuf in March of 2012, and not much has changed. He’s a person of interest, and if the price is right MacT would do well in acquiring him–even if its just for the season. Giving him a chance to wheel in Edmonton, and giving Dallas Eakins a #1 D option he’s somewhat familiar with, might be a very nice fit.

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147 Responses to "DOUBLE DION KABLAMMO EL KABONG?"

  1. SinceTheWHADays says:

    But what about all the things Watters said about his character? Apparently the TO media loathe the guy. Sure the Oil could use his skill set, but the complete package doesn’t pass the sniff test IMHO. Why did Calgary trade him? I’d definitely pass and save the cash incase we’re in the mix come deadline time.

  2. sliderule says:

    Phaneuf is going to sign to a team that allows his new wife to continue her career.

    Leafs realize this and are probably kicking tires so they don’t lose him for nothing.

    Edmonton is probably last on her list.

  3. SinceTheWHADays says:

    I honestly think Belov is going to be a better player than you’re willing to give him credit for.

  4. Lowetide says:

    SinceTheWHADays:
    I honestly think Belov is going to be a better player than you’re willing to give him credit for.

    There’s little to go on. I’m hopeful, but don’t believe it’s reasonable to assume he’ll play in front of Smid, Petry, Ference, J Schultz, N Schultz, and that puts him in a battle with Larsen, Potter and Klefbom for the end of the roster slots.

    Beyond that, we can cheer for him but I don’t think we can really say he’s clearly better than any of the 5 guys I mentioned above. Nick Schultz is an actual NHL defenseman. That is something to value.

  5. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    “A couple of final items in regard to the draft. That’s a truly weird graph there, Dion Phaneuf is in the tough quadrant with a bad color”

    Haha… that’s an epic LT Freudian Slip!

    “I love drafts! Is this post about a draft? No? I don’t care! Drafts!!!!”

    priceless. I’m right there with you, eagerly anticipating your post on the Fever-Bog.

    ———
    Dion for N.Schultz straight across or with a modest sweetener is fine by me. But Smid or really anything else is a no go.

    Speaking of Leaf D… have we given up trying to snag Gunnarson or Gardiner?

    Also… I would be interested to hear JW’s take on Kostka… seems like the fancy stats liked him fine last year. Either his WOWYs were inflated by his partners or he’s a pretty useful bottom pairing guy on the cheap for someone. I wonder if JW suffered AHL-vet syndrome and couldn’t see past Kostka’s brand…? (until further notice, I’ll assume I missed something not JW).

    Eakins should know him pretty well… wonder how he compares to Ranger?

  6. Lowetide says:

    Rom: I aim to please! :-)

    Yeah, Dion coming in for N Schultz would be an interesting one year look, but beyond that I don’t see it. The question I have about Dion is how long does he have before the big slide? He’s 28 but has played a lot of hockey.

  7. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Lowetide:
    Looks like Eric Belanger is on the way to the KHL

    http://translate.google.ca/translate?sl=auto&tl=en&js=n&prev=_t&hl=en&ie=UTF-8&u=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.rds.ca%2Fhockey%2Flnh%2Fla-khl-fait-de-l-oeil-%25C3%25A0-b%25C3%25A9langer-1.641139

    There’s some french pun going on in the title of that article that eludes me… help, anyone?

    The thing about Belanger is I never really bonded with him as a player. He was never really an Oiler for me. Even Hordichuk managed to strike a chord with the Oiler community.

    I have fond memories of ex-Star Todd Harvey even though he played for the Stars, only played here for a short time and wasn’t a fantastic hockey player. And not just because he was on the last great Oiler team (though that helps a lot). Harvey had “character” (not in the MacT/Eakins sense, but the hollywood sense, the way guys like Jack Elam always seemed to pop up in good movies and a few crappy ones and really leave their mark).

    At any rate, Belanger never did seem to connect with the team or the fan-base. It also didn’t help that his play hit the skids the day he arrived.

    Still, you have to feel for a guy like that. As much as it baffled us that his production fell off the planet, it must have been a very rude awakening for him. Earth-shattering really.

    As that article notes, I highly doubt he’s going to enjoy playing in the KHL if he had such little interest playing in EDM.

    My best Belanger memory is him playing the wet blanket when Yakupov scored that magic goal and then a couple of weeks later Yakupov saying Belanger was the funniest Oiler. These two would have made a priceless comedy team in the 50s.

  8. Lowetide says:

    Yakupov will one day own the Oilers, I swear. I don’t remember the last young man through this city who delights with his skill and his words. He’s a marketing dream! It’s like Joe Namath in a hockey environment.

  9. Woodguy says:

    Eric T breaks down exactly what “Money puck” is here: http://www.broadstreethockey.com/2013/7/13/4519148/moneypuck-corsi

    Just a fabulous piece, everyone should read it.

  10. Woodguy says:

    Lowetide:
    Yakupov will one day own the Oilers, I swear. I don’t remember the last young man through this city who delights with his skill and his words. He’s a marketing dream! It’s like Joe Namath in a hockey environment.

    “I’m playing with my Kaptain!” *stands up a little straighter*

    Can’t get enough of this guy.

  11. Lowetide says:

    Great article, agreed. The thing I never understood about Moneyball was that people thought Beane invented it, and that for me was a slight to Herzog and Weaver and men before them. That wasn’t really the story (or at least not the movie) though, it was identifying what was undervalued at the time and then using that knowledge to your advantage.

    Tulsky’s a witch btw. I believe that. Big brain.

  12. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Lowetide: The question I have about Dion is how long does he have before the big slide?

    Since we all watch (or are subjected to depending on POV) a lot of Leaf games through the year with HNIC…

    Friedman was doing some TOI analysis through the year and into the POs for Dion and a few others. It wasn’t very intensive, he just showed the games Dion played way too much (>25) vs. the games he was used more conservatively (<25) and the results (at first blush) were pretty apparent. He wears down pretty bad around the 24 mark.

    Seems like going into his next contract, ideally he'd become a #2 or maybe even #3. I bet with a little less responsibility he'd perform pretty well. Can't imagine he'll ask for #2 or 3 $$$ though.

    ——-

    Lowetide:
    Yakupov will one day own the Oilers, I swear. I don’t remember the last young man through this city who delights with his skill and his words. He’s a marketing dream! It’s like Joe Namath in a hockey environment.

    none of the kids, starting with Gagner have that much personality… they’ve all masted the drone-like media handling. Yakupov is too excited to care about what is supposed to be said.

  13. supernova says:

    I would trade for dion for one year with assets like Nick Schultz, Curtis Hamilton, and Linus Omark.

    There’s the 3 for 1 LT has been dreaming about for years, and at least we could stop hearing what the oilers should be able to get for Omark.

  14. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Woodguy:
    Eric T breaks down exactly what “Money puck” is here: http://www.broadstreethockey.com/2013/7/13/4519148/moneypuck-corsi

    Just a fabulous piece, everyone should read it.

    It’s funny a while back I suggested that one possible breaking point for adv. stats. into the mainstream (alongside the slow bleed of the bloggers into the bigs) would be a smart player and/or agent either pushing them into the contract process or during the daily course of their media drives.

    I can imagine a player like say Andrew Miller. An Ivy-leaguer, let’s say he’s very smart and loves hockey (seems a reasonable assumption).

    If this is me…. I’m studying everything I can about the thing I love. I imagine this must be the case with some of the players. You love something you read voraciously about it: movies, music, sports, gardening, whatever your poison is.

    Moreover, say you are Miller again and you find yourself undervalued by the market. Wouldn’t you seek out any angle you could get to gain a more valuable contract and a bigger slice of ice-time?

    I’m actually surprised some Hockey player under the knife from a superficial reporter hasn’t pulled corsi, or fenwick out yet.

    All of which is to say that Lupul’s take in that article is exactly how I suspect the majority of players feel about adv. stats…. which seems to make the case that an intrepid young fellow might use the situation to his advantage… if a few players adopted this kind of thinking the culture change would be startling IMO.

  15. jp says:

    Romulus Apotheosis,

    Belanger a perdu l’oeil des Oilers.

  16. Ryan says:

    Phaneuf-Petry
    Smid-J Schultz
    Ference-Belov/Larsen/

    Yikes. That looks seriously legit.

    Lt, why do you hate Potter so much? :)

  17. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Woodguy,

    from the article:

    “Lupul is right — most teams don’t give out contracts because of Corsi. But a team that does will get more wins out of their budget than a team that follows the conventional path and overvalues finishing talent.”

    how do we evaluate the magnus trade in light of this?

    recall JW’s astute observation:

    Jonathan Willis ‏@JonathanWillis 10 Jul
    David Perron’s a career 13.5% NHL shooter. Magnus Paajarvi once cracked the 8% mark as a pro. One guy finishes, one guy doesn’t.

  18. Ryan says:

    As for Samwise, what we do know is that he’s very motivated to sign with Edmonton for at least the next two years.

  19. godot10 says:

    Phaneuf plays better on the right side.

    Ference-Phaneuf
    Smid-Petry
    Belov-JSchultz
    Larson

    Nick Schultz + Potter (contract small enough that he can play on the Marlies with no cap impact) + conditional draft pick (if Phaneuf re-signs).

  20. Ryan says:

    Romulus Apotheosis,

    I think you have to look at both. While it’s easy to talk about high S% players regressing to league average, there are also guys who have hands of stone.

  21. Woodguy says:

    I have no idea of Frankenuf’s personality is disruptive, so I’ll just ignore that part of the equation.

    If you look at TOR last year, its a lot like EDM last year.

    They went from being a lower/middle shot attempt differential team to falling in the tank.

    The big difference between the two teams is that TOR rode high SH% and SV% and squeaked into the playoffs, whereas the Oilers just simply failed.

    Phaneuf’s numbers went from being very respectable in 11/12 to the black hole in 12/13.

    Change in coach really smacked him down.

    Like LT said:

    Carl Gunnarson 253
    Korbinian Holzer 229
    Mike Kostka 189

    Playing big minutes against tough opponents without Gunnarson must have been especially challenging for him.

    He saw the toughs both years, but had worse partners in 12/13 overall and his zone starts went from 50% to 41%.

    I have no idea why Carlyle decided that for almost 2/3 of the year that Phaneuf would have to take on the toughs, going uphill (41% ozone) with career AHLers.

    Just bizzare.

    Carlyle did to TOR what RK did to EDM.

    Except since they made the playoffs, Nonis has overhauled the TOR roster in Carlyle’s image and TOR fans will wander in the desert for the foreseeable future. I feel for them.

    So let’s look at Phaneuf in 11/12 and 12/13

    11/12
    CF% 49.8%

    3 most common D partners: TOI – CF% together _ CF% partner apart
    GUNNARSSON, CARL 828min 49.2 48.7
    AULIE, KEITH 208min 42.6 42.2
    GARDINER, JAKE 158min 60.9 48.4

    CorQC – 2/8 (Gunnarson was 1)

    Zone Start – 50% (6/8 – 3rd toughest on team)

    So he takes on the toughs with a good partner with tougher zone starts (tougher via team, 50% is pretty slick for 6/8) and keeps it even water. Good result vs. toughs on a non-playoff team.

    12/13

    CF% 41.9%

    3 most common D partners: TOI – CF% together _ CF% partner apart
    GUNNARSSON, CARL 253min 40.4 47.2
    HOLZER, KORBINIAN 229min 40 39.5
    KOSTKA, MICHAEL 189min 46 47.2

    Seriously, what was Holzer doing in the NHL, let alone playing toughs? Awful coaching decision.

    CorQC – 1/9

    Zone Start – 41.3% (6/9 – 4th toughest on team)

    *GIANT COACHING CHANGE WARNING LIGHT HERE*

    Phaneuf was 6/8 the year before with 50% and 6/9 the following year with 41.3%

    In 11/12 6 of TOR’s 8 Dmen started in the ozone 50%+ and NOT ONE Dman had a 50%+ Ozone start in 12/13.

    That team was driven right off of a cliff. Just awful

    So Phaneuf’s role doesn’t change, but his partners and team results do.

    I’m he’ll tell you he had a tough year, but you may be buying low on this player.

    He is not as bad as his last year shows.

    Man, Carlyle just completely screwed that team.

  22. 99thoilerfan says:

    Phaneuf, eh?

    Hmm…. I thought the Oil wanted a better ” culture ” in the locker room.
    Not sure if this would be the right choice, might cause more distraction that what it is worth….

    ( once a Flame, always a dirty, rotten, no good for nothing Flame )

  23. Woodguy says:

    Romulus Apotheosis:
    Woodguy,

    from the article:

    “Lupul is right — most teams don’t give out contracts because of Corsi. But a team that does will get more wins out of their budget than a team that follows the conventional path and overvalues finishing talent.”

    how do we evaluate the magnus trade in light of this?

    recall JW’s astute observation:

    Jonathan Willis ‏@JonathanWillis 10 Jul
    David Perron’s a career 13.5% NHL shooter. Magnus Paajarvi once cracked the 8% mark as a pro. One guy finishes, one guy doesn’t.

    The key in not losing a trade or FA signing is that you are not basing it on an “outlier” year.

    Perron is a career 13% shooter. Shot the lights out a couple years and 8% in a couple years to average 13%.

    The question is if Perron is a legit 13% shooter or not?

    That’s the bet, and I’m not sure he is, but I’m sure as hell hoping.

    You can also flip this on its head and say “Paajarvi shot 12% last year and he’s a career 8%, did STL overpay?”

  24. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Ryan:
    Romulus Apotheosis,

    I think you have to look at both.While it’s easy to talk about high S% players regressing to league average, there are also guys who have hands of stone.

    I think that was JW’s point in the end. Both players had 600+ pro shots recorded and steady and very different sh%.

    still it is an interesting question. more to the point, setting aside sh% a bigger question looms for ONSV% and ONSH%, ie. stats that arguably involve a lot more luck than sh% which is its own ball of luck.

  25. godot10 says:

    Romulus Apotheosis:
    Woodguy,

    from the article:

    Jonathan Willis ‏@JonathanWillis 10 Jul
    David Perron’s a career 13.5% NHL shooter. Magnus Paajarvi once cracked the 8% mark as a pro. One guy finishes, one guy doesn’t.

    Context is important. Is there perhaps a reason why Paajarvi’s shooting percentage low, and might it be “fixable”? Data doesn’t help if one doesn’t analyze the data properly.

    Paajarvi made the NHL with basically no clue how to play his position offensively. Nelson taught him an awful lot in OKC, and one could see Paajarvi had learned where to go on the ice offensively as a forward without the puck. Hitchcock is going to be constantly whispering in his ear.

    Paajarvi’s best skill in OKC was supporting Hartikainen’s cycle play. Paajarvi with some of the big boys St. Louis has, and the breakout passes from Bouwmeester, Pieterangelo, and Shattenkirk has the potential to become a beast.

    I understand why the Oilers made the deal, and I’m not going to criticize Perron, because I think he is a good player, but the crux of who “wins” this trade is whether Paajarvi continues to develop.

    I think most of the things that Paajarvi has to do to develop is teachable.

  26. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    godot10,

    I think the question in the ether stemming from JW is: “can you go to finishing school after 700+ pro shots and radically upgrade your sh%?”

    It seems unlikely.

    More likely to me is that if Magnus gets more production it stems from more TOI and taking/producing with his linemates more shots.

  27. Lowetide says:

    The one thing about Paajarvi–and this was pointed out to me by a scout–is that he IS a defensive forward in fact and that he played his pre-2010 hockey on the big rinks. He is just now learning to drive to the net without fear and those other big forwards in STL will give him more courage.

    I hope he scores 30 a year.

  28. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Complete sidebar:

    LT your moderation system seems to trigger when people post too many links. I assume you are screening for spammers. You might want to find a way to allow regular posters to circumvent this.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_tywGmsMBp4

  29. spoiler says:

    Lowetide: Tulsky’s a witch btw. I believe that. Big brain.

    Isn’t Tulsky the guy that badly blew the AHL lockout equivalency with that article on NHL Numbers?

    Seems to me he had a couple of funny articles on dump ins too.

    I haven’t read anything by him since, but if he’s a witch, he should probably watch out for backfiring spells, lol.

    Defense as it stand now prior to any Dion trade:

    SMID PETR
    BELO FERE
    SCHU SCHU
    LARS/POTT

    We can be fairly sure the Oilers will use Ference where Boston primarily used him, that is on the right side. The right side is pretty weak in fact if we don’t slot him there.

    And considering the glowing terms on Belov… I don’t see how anyone considered to be a top 10 defenseman in the KHL would be anything less than a second pairing Dman here. Not to mention we know the Schultzes can’t do it yet at EVs.

    With Klefbom in the background, that’s not a bad little bunch of blueliners. I wouldn’t give up too much for one year of Phaneuf either. Is he on an NTC? Would he come? He’s pretty much an eastener now; lives in PEI in the summer.

  30. böökje says:

    Lowetide:
    Looks like Eric Belanger is on the way to the KHL

    http://translate.google.ca/translate?sl=auto&tl=en&js=n&prev=_t&hl=en&ie=UTF-8&u=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.rds.ca%2Fhockey%2Flnh%2Fla-khl-fait-de-l-oeil-%25C3%25A0-b%25C3%25A9langer-1.641139

    Note to NHL players – Don’t talk badly about the team that just paid you millions of dollars even if they treated you like crap – It may affect the willingness of other NHL teams to pay you millions of dollars.

  31. böökje says:

    Lowetide:
    Yakupov will one day own the Oilers, I swear. I don’t remember the last young man through this city who delights with his skill and his words. He’s a marketing dream! It’s like Joe Namath in a hockey environment.

    If there is one thing I learned from Perfect Strangers*, its that if you take both humour and passionate/noble statements, they both seem to be amplified when the individual has an accent and imperfect English.

    * Reference only relevant to those over 40.

  32. FastOil says:

    Perron is a better player right now than Pajaarvi, I think that is pretty clear. Despite SH%, Perron is also a far more aggressive player, that being Pajaarvi’s biggest flaw, the second being his disgracefully weak shot for a bigger guy. Down the road as to who will be the most valuable given Perron’s melon, who knows.

    Phaneuf being UFA and unfairly maligned could represent great value to the Oilers depending on the ask. Perfect transition 1D. Even if he’s flawed the team would be much better and seems to have enough depth on D now that they could roll 3 pairs and even TOI out, and not fry the top pair. Tough, PP able, nice fit. Eakins would have the skinny on what he is really like. We know he has an attitude, but how many effective top D with all the tools don’t? Lidstrom maybe?

    I hope Eakins has asked Smyth to be prepared to play third line minutes. His contract is a problem if he can only play 4th, in acquiring a known quantity 3 LW and another D and sign Gagner. Too much when the team is approaching the cap for a minimal contribution or a player needing a lot of shelter. Hopefully he trains hard and rebounds from the shortened season – just be reliable defensively even if he doesn’t score a lot. If Joensuu wins it as things go along great, but there is a good chance just giving it to him could be a problem.

  33. böökje says:

    I think the Oilers would be wise to find a top notch one-year rental player (d-man or third line offensive centre) to push the depth chart back a level and allow the team to either develop their own players a bit more or to find a free agent next year – even if it requires an overpay or the accepting of someone with a bad attitude.

  34. Lowetide says:

    spOILer: I didn’t see the Tulsky item on equivalencies, will go have a look.

  35. Clarkenstein says:

    Nice Sunday morning LT,,, some coffee, a little porn and an Oil story! Gotta love it. I’d take Dion in a New York minute as long as Sam isn’t part of the deal. Dion is a dick, will always be a dick but he can play on my team anytime.

  36. Woodguy says:

    Romulus Apotheosis,

    Yeah, I read those guys and engage them on twitter from time to time.

    Good writers, strong hockey and analytics knowledge.

    Poor guys.

  37. Woodguy says:

    Lowetide:
    The one thing about Paajarvi–and this was pointed out to me by a scout–is that he IS a defensive forward in fact and that he played his pre-2010 hockey on the big rinks. He is just now learning to drive to the net without fear and those other big forwards in STL will give him more courage.

    I hope he scores 30 a year.

    Given Paajarvi’s proclivity to defensive hockey I can see Hitchcock sliding him right into Perron’s spot with Bakes and Oshie vs. the toughs and STL not missing a beat.

    I’ll always cheer for him.

  38. böökje says:

    WG – : So, you saw him better, but what do the stats say?
    Wowy’s and V-Hammers and all of that good stuff?

    I was supposed to ask you that today. I forget why or who it’s about.

  39. Woodguy says:

    böökje:
    WG – : So, you saw him better, but what do the stats say?
    Wowy’s and V-Hammers and all of that good stuff?

    I was supposed to ask you that today. I forget why or who it’s about.

    Think it was Gio.

    Will try to get something together. Just me my 4 year old now and she gets my full attention if she wants it.

  40. Lowetide says:

    Woodguy: Think it was Gio.

    Will try to get something together.Just me my 4 year old now and she gets my full attention if she wants it.

    Amen to that. Pay attention to the 4-year old, because one time when you turn around she’ll be 16.

  41. böökje says:

    Woodguy: Think it was Gio.

    Will try to get something together.Just me my 4 year old now and she gets my full attention if she wants it.

    It was in reference to this “Just by eye, (Ference in the playoffs and N.Shultz all year) I think Ference is much faster and makes quicker decisions and better passes.
    N. Shultz looked done many nights last year.”

    Also, my kids are 5 and 2 – Yes, watch the 4 year old. It’s kind of the last year where they retain some of that toddlerness. My 5 year old has started with eye rolls and other forms of self thinking independence.

    Yesterday she told me that she named her stuffed bunny ‘Butterscotch’. I said “Your bunny is pink, do you even know what butterscotch is?” . She rolled her eyes and in a very ‘know it all ‘ voice said “Yeah, a bunny” , then she turned and walked away pondering how stupid her father is. (Note: She actually has no idea what butterscotch is).

  42. Woodguy says:

    spoiler,

    Isn’t Tulsky the guy that badly blew the AHL lockout equivalency with that article on NHL Numbers?

    Only Tulsky thing I can find at NHLnumbers.com about AHL equivalences is:

    http://nhlnumbers.com/2012/10/17/ahl-nhl-points-translations-lockout-league-equivalencies

  43. jp says:

    Clarkenstein:
    Nice Sunday morning LT,,, some coffee, a little porn and an Oil story! Gotta love it. I’d take Dion in a New York minute as long as Sam isn’t part of the deal. Dion is a dick, will always be a dick but he can play on my team anytime.

    “there’s three kinds of people: dicks, pussies, and assholes”. I won’t continue, but according to that sage advice, Dion is the kind you want on your team. I’m all for it if the cost isn’t too high and Eakins doesn’t think he’ll be a problem.

    LT, I also appreciated the non-hockey content above. Wow.

  44. jonrmcleod says:

    I don’t believe anything Watters says. He also said that Ryan Whitney would be a good replacement for Erik Karlsson. I was told that Dreger also mentioned the Phaneuf-to-Edmonton rumour. Does anyone know if this is true?

  45. Hammers says:

    Lowetide,

    But both McT and news out of Russia say he is a player . Obviously the Penguins & 6 others also wanted him ???

  46. Lowetide says:

    Hammers:
    Lowetide,

    But both McT and news out of Russia say he is a player . Obviously the Penguins & 6 others also wanted him ???

    Sure, but projecting him into the top 4D? I don’t see that as being reasonable. If he ends up there, that would be a terrific thing but we can’t count on that imo.

  47. Hammers says:

    Woodguy: Given Paajarvi’s proclivity to defensive hockey I can see Hitchcock sliding him right into Perron’s spot with Bakes and Oshie vs. the toughs and STL not missing a beat.

    I’ll always cheer for him.

    Me as well but this for me was a hockey trade. Fair to both teams .

  48. Captain Smarmy says:

    Lowetide:
    Great article, agreed. The thing I never understood about Moneyball was that people thought Beane invented it, and that for me was a slight to Herzog and Weaver and men before them. That wasn’t really the story (or at least not the movie) though, it was identifying what was undervalued at the time and then using that knowledge to your advantage.

    Tulsky’s a witch btw. I believe that. Big brain.

    I’d say Branch Rickey was the grandfather of moneyball. There were guys as far back as baseballs early days looking for any edge they could find but Branch Rickey really took it to another level.

    Plus Sandy Alderson was the one who introduced the concepts of Moneyball to the As and Beane was an excellent disciple.

  49. russ99 says:

    I think we’re too caught up with possession stats and puck moving when it comes to defense,

    To me, the real question is can they make a play in a tough area to get he puck going the other way or when one or more of our forwards are caught too far behind the play?

    At this point only Smid, Ference and maybe Larsen are a yes. J. Schultz and Petry are could-bes given their talent level with possible improvement under Eakins, N. Scultz and Potter are no. Klefbom and Belov are no clue.

    Phaneuf would obviously be a big help.

  50. commonfan14 says:

    Regarding D, I’ve been thinking recently about what it might look like in 2 years if the prospects don’t hit any big snags and there aren’t any big trades.

    If it looks something like this,

    Klefbom – J. Schultz
    Smid – Petry
    Ference – Nurse

    Who of the Marincin/Gernat/Musil et al group do people think will be left standing for the 7th spot?

  51. Hammers says:

    Lowetide: Sure, but projecting him into the top 4D? I don’t see that as being reasonable. If he ends up there, that would be a terrific thing but we can’t count on that imo.

    Time will tell like all things but McT seemed firm in saying he expected him to play . He also inferred the same thing on Klefbom and that’s why I’m expecting a trade of at least N.Schultz and perhaps Smid. Expect the unexpected with McT including your 3 for 1 .

  52. "Steve Smith" says:

    böökje: If there is one thing I learned from Perfect Strangers*…

    * Reference only relevant to those over 40.

    Bite your tongue. I’m considerably under 40, and I loved Perfect Strangers when it was airing. In fact, though I haven’t seen an episode as an adult, my impression looking back is that it was probably ideally suited to people who were about ten years old when it was airing.

    My favourite episodes were the one where they went on the gameshow, and the one where they won the shopping spree.

    As well, Family Matters is relevant to people under forty if only because it spawned Family Matters.

    Also, something about hockey.

  53. Lowetide says:

    Hammers: Time will tell like all things but McT seemed firm in saying he expected him to play . He also inferred the same thing on Klefbom and that’s why I’m expecting a trade of at least N.Schultz and perhaps Smid. Expect the unexpected with McT including your 3 for 1 .

    Expecting him to play top 4D? That isn’t what MacT said

  54. jonrmcleod says:

    “Steve Smith”,

    I’m also under 40 and Perfect Strangers was one of my favourite shows as a kid. The game show episode (“RISK IT ALL!!!”) and the supermarket shopping spree must have been the most memorable ones. I was going to mention them before I saw that you listed them as your two favourites.

  55. böökje says:

    “Steve Smith”: Bite your tongue.I’m considerably under 40, and I loved Perfect Strangers when it was airing.In fact, though I haven’t seen an episode as an adult, my impression looking back is that it was probably ideally suited to people who were about ten years old when it was airing.

    My favourite episodes were the one where they went on the gameshow, and the one where they won the shopping spree.

    As well, Family Matters is relevant to people under forty if only because it spawned Family Matters.

    Also, something about hockey.

    Ok, perhaps the disclaimer should read over 30. Over 40 disclaimers should be used for All in the Family, Happy Days, and Different Strokes.

  56. jonrmcleod says:

    böökje,

    You’re wrong on Different Strokes. I also used to watch Happy Days as a kid. Not sure if those were reruns, though.

  57. speeds says:

    böökje:
    I think the Oilers would be wise to find a top notch one-year rental player (d-man or third line offensive centre) to push the depth chart back a level and allow the team to either develop their own players a bit more or to find a free agent next year – even if it requires an overpay or the accepting of someone with a bad attitude.

    Maybe a guy like Prospal, who Howson would seemingly know well? As I understand he’s more of a LW, but still would likely be a useful player to fill in the top 9. And if EDM keeps 83, might allow EDM a bunch of flexibility in the top 6/9.

  58. Rube Foster says:

    I would take one year of Dumb Dion for Elder Schultz and nothing more than a third round draft pick. I hate the Dirty Flamer but he would improve our back end and get us at least one year closer to the Fabled JShultz, Klefbom, Nurse, Marancin, Gernat, Musil Cluster.

    With that said I would also take one year of Gilbert at anything less than $2.5 million and move Elder Schultz for assets for the same reasons as stated above.

    Just curious- Can anyone recall the Oilers acquiring a player that the fan base despised as much as most of us used to hate Dion the Dick?

  59. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    I remember spending a good 5 minutes in my elementary school library staring at an atlas trying to find Mepos. The index didn’t help.

    ——–

    I think top 4 for Belov and Klefbom is over-reading the language MacT used.

    I think, however, putting Belov in the 7 spot is under-reading his language.

    My guess is belov starts on the bottom pairing and pushes N. Schultz to the other side or off the roster.

    Klefbom will get a great look in camp but won’t start the season in EDM. He’ll be a call up only and will get some time after the deadline if someone moves during the year or at the deadline

    Keep in mind if Klefbom hits 40 regular season games it knocks a year off his rfa status.

    also, MacT on Klef:

    MacT: “Klefbom is a guy everybody is anxiously awaiting to come into our lineup. It’s always dangerous to have too high of expectations for a young player, but he’s a very complete player for such a young player, so I think he’s going to really help back there”

    http://oilersnation.com/2013/5/11/oscar-nomination

    http://www.coppernblue.com/2013/5/24/4362424/mactavish-talks-to-season-ticket-holders

  60. RexLibris says:

    I had mentioned Giordano yesterday as well in reference to the Flames trading him for Couturier.

    The comparable I had with Giordano was to the Regehr situation. Not in terms of ability, but rather that the Flames are in danger of wasting his best years on a poor team. By the time they need a Giordano-type defender Giordano won’t be that defender. They’d be best to trade him now. They left Regehr too long and got very little in return.

    In relation to the Phaneuf topic, I’d take the current Flames defender above over the previous one named in the article.

    Maybe I’m naive or just out of touch, but I’d rather find a top-four blueliner somewhere else if it means bringing in Phaneuf. Also, using MacTavish’s own words as a blueprint for the kind of defender he is going to value, Phaneuf doesn’t fit that bill.

    Phaneuf’s stock reminds me of the hype that preceded Matt Dumba at the ’12 draft. Big hitter, some offense, hurts people, etc. Some observers like this sort of defender as a kind of throwback. I’m not sold that MacTavish is that interested in this kind of player unless you could add “perfect first pass and reads the play” to the resume.

    I suspect this rumour is the result of media looking at Toronto’s needs and trying to find a fit, with the Oilers being their de facto destination. Oilers acquiring Phaneuf just doesn’t make any sense from where I sit.

  61. Lowetide says:

    Rube Foster:
    I would take one year of Dumb Dion for Elder Schultz and nothing more than a third round draft pick. I hate the Dirty Flamer but he would improve our back end and get us at least one year closer to the Fabled JShultz, Klefbom, Nurse, Marancin, Gernat, Musil Cluster.

    With that said I would also take one year of Gilbert at anything less than $2.5 million and move Elder Schultz for assets for the same reasons as stated above.

    Just curious- Can anyone recall the Oilers acquiring a player that the fan base despised as much as most of us used to hate Dion the Dick?

    No. Never. It’s like welcoming Macoun or Peplinski.

  62. Lowetide says:

    speeds: Maybe a guy like Prospal, who Howson would seemingly know well?As I understand he’s more of a LW, but still would likely be a useful player to fill in the top 9.And if EDM keeps 83, might allow EDM a bunch of flexibility in the top 6/9.

    Prospal would be outstanding. I thought he’d retired.

  63. Henry says:

    godot10:
    Phaneuf plays better on the right side.

    Ference-Phaneuf
    Smid-Petry
    Belov-JSchultz
    Larson

    Nick Schultz + Potter (contract small enough that he can play on the Marlies with no cap impact) + conditional draft pick (if Phaneuf re-signs).

    I think you are right. When Dion was with Calgary he played the right side, torched the Oilers with PP goals low blocker all the time and acted like an ass.

    If they can get him for OldSchultz and he has a good year, the Oilers will be a serious threat.

  64. Henry says:

    Lowetide: No. Never. It’s like welcoming Macoun or Peplinski.

    I loved Macoun and Peplinski. They were crash test dummies for Messier.

  65. wheatnoil says:

    Given how heavily the Leafs have relied on Phaneuf (the aforementioned zone starts and competition being evidene of the same), I would think they’d have to be crazy to send him away.

    Then again, based on what they’ve done with Grabovski, MacArthur, Bozak, and Clarkson so far this summer…

    I’d say it’s worth a phone call.

    As much as Oiler-fans hate Phaneuf, he’s going to be a fan-favourite if he’s here. Big D, hard shot, hits hard, and loud… yeah, Oiler-fans will come around. (Note: this is coming from a guy who hates Phaneuf)

  66. Gerta Rauss says:

    Lowetide: Sure, but projecting him into the top 4D? I don’t see that as being reasonable. If he ends up there, that would be a terrific thing but we can’t count on that imo.

    Here, here. Both Belov and Klefbom may be playing top 4 minutes before the season is over(fingers crossed) but leaving the station with them pencilled in with anything resembling heavy minutes is not a recipe for success.

    godot10:
    Phaneuf plays better on the right side.

    Ference-Phaneuf
    Smid-Petry
    Belov-JSchultz
    Larson

    I like that-I seem to remember that Ugly plays the right side as well.

    In my perfect scenario, Jultz is playing 3rd pairing EV, and Belov is the #7 leaving camp, so we’d still need a LH shot mentor to play with Junior. Larson, Klefbom,Potter and all the other hangers on start in OKC(or we carry 8 D leaving training camp)

  67. stevezie says:

    When Dion was in Calgary he was a great 2-3 D-man. Great hitter, fantastic shot, underrated skater and stickhandler, but mediocre to poor defensive coverage and some obvious maturity issues. I don’t think anchoring a 1st pairing and playing toughs plays to his strengths. I see him more as a Keith Yandle who can crush, rather than a Scott Stevens type. I think he is one “right situation” away from looking really good, but I do not think that situation is Edmonton.

    We aren’t desperate for his offence (Schultz, Belov, forwards on the pp point cover this) and I don’t think his defence dramatically improves us.

    Movie-star wives don’t seem to like Edmonton. If we want a stop gap let’s overpay Hainsey for a year. Or heck, we could stand pat if all we want to be is mediocre.

    jp: “there’s three kinds of people: dicks, pussies, and assholes”. I won’t continue, but according to that sage advice, Dion is the kind you want on your team. I’m all for it if the cost isn’t too high and Eakins doesn’t think he’ll be a problem.

    We’re going just on rumours here (granted there are a lot them), but Dion sounds more like the third category than the first. This is not an asset.

  68. khildahl says:

    Lowetide: No. Never. It’s like welcoming Macoun or Peplinski.

    Well, Mike Comrie, sort of.

  69. Racki says:

    Last I’d heard, the douchebag attitude of Phaneuf was mostly gone.. I wonder how true that is. I would hope it was before we took him on. But other than that, I’d definitely do a swap for Phaneuf. Never would I move Smid for him though, even though he brings good offense (any offense is an upgrade on Smid).

    I’d probably still pair Smid and Petry together since they work so well, but I’d see what Phaneuf and J. Schultz look like together. Then I’d go with a less often seen 1a, 1b d-pairing. Where Smid and Petry get a lot of minutes, and Phaneuf and J. Schultz get a lot of minutes. We’ll see if Phaneuf’s defensive abilities can counterbalance J. Schultz less than strong defensive abilities. It would be nice if we would have signed Fistric. I’m not sure if he would have been able to pair up with Ference.. might be a little slow, but they might work out into a pretty solid shut down group.

    I’m pretty sure our bottom pairing though will be Belov-Ference (with Ference playing the off side) if Phaneuf were brought in here. Then if you look up and down the line up, each line has a good balance of offense and defence (Petry’s College days proved that he is a good puck rusher if he’s allowed to be).

  70. cc says:

    Noooooooooo!

    Always has been and always will be a dud. This is not the guy we want to expend any money , players or prospects on.

  71. Ducey says:

    Since when does Bill Waters know anything about anything? He is so far from being connected, its sad.

    Also what does he mean when he calls a DP “undernourished”?

    Maybe the Dion just needs a meal plan.

    Anyway, he would just be a rental until he went to LA or NY (for his wife). Might as well hang onto assets that could be used to get someone that might be a longer term fix.

  72. Joel Pepin says:

    böökje: Ok, perhaps the disclaimer should read over 30. Over 40 disclaimers should be used for All in the Family, Happy Days, and Different Strokes.

    Dammit! I just turned 30 and I watched 2 of those 3 shoes growing up.
    *Childhood TV experience may not be typical

  73. "Steve Smith" says:

    stevezie: Movie-star wives don’t seem to like Edmonton.

    Is that why Mariusz Czerkawski was traded?

    You know he scored 26 goals for the Oilers in 1996-1997? That’s more goals than any Oiler scored in a season from 2007 – 2011, except for Dustin Penner in 2009-2010. And yet I somehow remember him as a profoundly secondary talent. There were some nice things on those late 90s squads. There was also Josef Beranek spending most of a season as our first-line centre after Doug Weight went down, mind you. Still, I’m nostalgic.

  74. slurve says:

    I would not take Phaneuf as a top pairing dman. He is low 2nd and high 3rd defenseman. Calgary found out as well as Toronto that Phaneuf cannot defend well when the game is on the line. He gets flustered and is lost in his own zone when stressed. When Boston came back with its 3rd and 4th goals to tie the game and won it in OT of the 7th game , Phaneuf was on for both the 3rd and 4th goals. Yikes! Phaneuf if some considered as a top pairing dman should be able to compensate or compromise his skillset to assist his poorer dman partner instead, Dion the neon became exposed brighter than 1000 lumens flashlight in the midnight desert. Now that is exposed. If this doesn’t paint a clearer picture of what his make up is and avoid is major caphit and upcoming UFA, then we are blinded by the desperation to have a top dman at any cost. Please do not even contemplate the thought of giving up Smid…that would be a bold move alright …right along with the move of the Captain of the Costa Concordia abandoning his 300 passengers on a sinking ship that he had caused.

  75. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: It also didn’t help that his play hit the skids the day he arrived.

    Belanger’s most common linemates, last year in PHX: Shane Doan, Scottie Upshall, Lee Stempniak, Wojtek Wolski

    Belanger’s most common linemates, last year in EDM: Ryan Smyth, Ryan Jones, Ben Eager, Lennart Petrell

  76. RexLibris says:

    Bruce McCurdy: Belanger’s most common linemates, last year in PHX: Shane Doan, Scottie Upshall, Lee Stempniak, Wojtek Wolski

    Belanger’s most common linemates, last year in EDM: Ryan Smyth, Ryan Jones, Ben Eager, Lennart Petrell

    So what you’re saying is that the Triangle wasn’t Belanger? This is sparking an existential crisis!

  77. bazmagoo says:

    Big NO to Phaneuf.

    I still think there is a good shot the Oilers end up landing Coburn. Philly is above the cap currently and still would like to re-sign Simon Gagne according to reports online:

    http://www.broadstreethockey.com/2013/7/5/4496688/simon-gagne-contract-flyers-nhl-free-agency-2013

    No team in their right mind is going to look at taking Meszaros or Grossman at their current contracts, unless it’s for a 2nd round or lower pick, so the only possibility of getting a legitimate NHL’er back is Coburn. My guess is they’ll likely shed some salary/cap on defence right before the start of the season in Flyerville.

    How about N Schultz (Oilers retaining $1 of his salary/cap hit) & one of Gernat, Davidson or Fedun for Coburn. Assuming Simon Gagne signs for around $2-3 million I believe this would bring them below the salary cap for the start of the season, then they can put Pronger on LTIR and have some cap flexibility.

    The Oilers starting 7 d on open night would be:

    Coburn – Ference
    Smid – Petry
    Belov – J Schultz
    Klefbom

    With Belov and Klefbom being interchangable depending on how they play in training camp.

  78. Lowetide says:

    Bruce McCurdy: Belanger’s most common linemates, last year in PHX: Shane Doan, Scottie Upshall, Lee Stempniak, Wojtek Wolski

    Belanger’s most common linemates, last year in EDM: Ryan Smyth, Ryan Jones, Ben Eager, Lennart Petrell

    Man. It’s like he was playing with the same group both seasons.

  79. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Bruce McCurdy,

    So, you’re saying his numbers were inflated in PHX?

    Lowetide,

    I am supposed to take your Scarlet GIF switcheroo as indicative of how you feel about Dion in some way?

  80. Lowetide says:

    Romulus Apotheosis:
    Bruce McCurdy,

    So, you’re saying his numbers were inflated in PHX?

    Lowetide,

    I am supposed to take your Scarlet GIF switcheroo as indicative of how you feel about Dion in some way?

    No, I thought it might be too ‘over the top’ as it were. Don’t want to offend people.

  81. Gerta Rauss says:

    Lowetide: No, I thought it might be too ‘over the top’ as it were. Don’t want to offend people.

    The top is the part I was looking at!!!!

  82. jake70 says:

    Bruce McCurdy: Belanger’s most common linemates, last year in PHX: Shane Doan, Scottie Upshall, Lee Stempniak, Wojtek Wolski

    Belanger’s most common linemates, last year in EDM: Ryan Smyth, Ryan Jones, Ben Eager, Lennart Petrell

    One thing that irritated me in 11-12 (mostly first half of season iirc) was all the PP time Renney seemed to have given to Belanger, and he didn’t show much.

  83. Gerta Rauss says:

    jake70,

    I’ve always thought that Renney gave him that PP time to appease Belanger-he probably wasn’t thrilled that he was playing with Pettrell either. I remeber Renney being asked about it and he said they needed a left hand shot from the point…(insert crickets here)

    And yeah, Belanger did nothing with the time he was given.

  84. Lowetide says:

    Gerta Rauss:
    jake70,

    I’vealways thought thatRenney gave him that PP time to appease Belanger-he probably wasn’t thrilled that he was playing with Pettrell either. I remeber Renney being asked about it and he said they needed a left hand shot from the point….

    And yeah, Belanger did nothing with the time he was given.

    Belanger started on the 1line his first game, I think he maybe thought he was coming here to do something for which he was not ideal. Wonder what the Oilers promised him?

  85. Gerta Rauss says:

    Lowetide,

    That’s it yeah-I bet at the 20 game mark Belanger looked around and said to himself “hey, this isn’t what I signed up for”

  86. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Bruce McCurdy,

    Since you are over here… I thought I’d pick your Centre UFA brain:

    http://blogs.edmontonjournal.com/2013/07/14/toronto-maple-leafs-reject-mikhail-grabovski-tops-a-thin-group-of-remaining-ufa-centres/

    http://oilersnation.com/2013/7/13/free-agent-possibilities-fourth-line-centre

    I thought it was interesting that you and JW both recently tackled Centre depth and the thinning UFA market but — with the exception of Gomez — came up with different lists. Now, JW was exclusively looking at 4Cs… but still it was interesting to me.

    I’d be interested in hearing your take on a few of JW’s possibles: Steckel and Malholtra topping the list and why you were looking higher up the depth chart for Oiler needs?

    ———

    Lowetide,

    Fair enough. I seem to recall you drove away a particularly frustrated reader from ON a year or two ago with your mildly saucy content.

    Speaking of mildy saucy content served up in non-saucy contexts… I’m a big fan of vinyl and spend a day a month or so poking around record stores.

    One thing I’ve discovered about old records from the 60s is that one way to jumpstart your sales was with hilariously saucy covers. some of them are so egregious that they simply make you laugh.

    “Hey… Heartland American! Don’t like Latin Music? No problem. How about pretty ladies in ridiculous circumstances? You may only listen to it once, if that… but you’ll proudly display it to your friends and neighbors to whom you will assure your love of soft Latin music is come by honestly… honestly.”

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VFgKIz1SrlI

  87. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    jake70: One thing that irritated me in 11-12 (mostly first half of season iirc) was all the PP time Renney seemed to have given toBelanger, and he didn’t show much.

    Wasn’t it a faceoff thing?

    I think that’s what a lot of us thought… but Renney never made an effort to have him scoot off the ice once possession was established.

  88. Gerta Rauss says:

    Romulus Apotheosis,

    I’ve got about 250 vinyl albums in the basement if you’re ever in the Squamish/Whistler area-dirt cheap. And I’ll throw in some snow tires and a TV that needs a team of oxen to move around.

  89. Lowetide says:

    Well I clicked on tha link and now I want me some Ritma!!!!

  90. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Sorry last one…

    some of these are hilarious and maybe a bit NSFW…

    LT feel free to delete this post (you don’t want to offend anyone)

    http://vinyl-records-sale.blogspot.ca

  91. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Gerta Rauss:
    Romulus Apotheosis,

    I’ve got about 250 vinyl albums in the basement if you’re ever in the Squamish/Whistler area-dirt cheap. And I’ll throw in some snow tires and a TV that needs a team of oxen to move around.

    Crap! Sorry, I’m way out here in Toronto, otherwise, I’d come take a look.

    Vinyl is too heavy to move around unless it is worth something, like old jazz records.

    I imagine you have a lot of old rock. if it is taking up space and you don’t have the time to ebay it or take it to a record store in Van to sell… give it to your kids, or a niece/nephew or something. I’m sure you’ll find a budding vinyl collector in your midst if you look hard enough.

  92. Dominoiler says:

    Anyone else see the loss of size w the perron prv deal..

  93. Jesse says:

    Woodguy,

    I think the most important thing that Tyler Dellow said about his whole Big Data series was that he feels as though many people make judgments on the aptitude of coaches without having hardly any insight into what they’re actually doing with the team. He went on to say after ten posts and what likely was weeks of work/research that he was only beginning to feel comfortable saying that a very specific tactical approach that Hemsky and Gagner were taking could be RK’s fault and that that was resulting in the black hole that was the second line.

    It seems to me that you are extrapolating these tactical deficiencies to the d corps. When you do this and combine it with saying things like “Carlyle did to TOR what RK did to EDM … He screwed his team”, it makes me very curious as to what work you did to come to such a definitive conclusion when after ten Big Data posts Tyler was only beginning to feel comfortable making a judgment call on one very specific tactical error being made off facepffs by 89 and 83.

  94. Gerta Rauss says:

    Romulus Apotheosis,

    Yeah, lots of old rock.

    My brother and I own the house and we’ve built a band room downstairs-double drywall, room inside a room type of deal. I was thinking of lining the walls with the album covers-remove the vinyl of course, but pin up the album covers on the walls instead of painting.

    Always been a big liner note guy(and album art of course) I missed that with CD’s, and now it’s just a download.

  95. Gerta Rauss says:

    Dominoiler:
    Anyone else see the loss of size w the perron prv deal..

    Yeah, but I think we’re going to be surprised(pleasantly) with how “big” Perron plays. PRV was big, but he hasn’t(yet?) “played big”

    And I believe there is still meat coming in the bottom 6.

  96. Gerta Rauss says:

    Romulus Apotheosis,

    Oh, and some jazz and blues. Most of my jazz/blues(blues/jazz??) is on cassette. Probably 500 cassette tapes taking up space as well.

  97. böökje says:

    Jesse:
    Woodguy,

    I think the most important thing that Tyler Dellow said about his whole Big Data series was that he feels as though many people make judgments on the aptitude of coaches without having hardly any insight into what they’re actually doing with the team. He went on to say after ten posts and what likely was weeks of work/research that he was only beginning to feel comfortable saying that a very specific tactical approach that Hemsky and Gagner were taking could be RK’s fault and that that was resulting in the black hole that was the second line.

    It seems to me that you are extrapolating these tactical deficiencies to the d corps. When you do this and combine it with saying things like “Carlyle did to TOR what RK did to EDM … He screwed his team”, it makes me very curious as to what work you did to come to such a definitive conclusion when after ten Big Data posts Tyler was only beginning to feel comfortable making a judgment call on one very specific tactical error being made off facepffs by 89 and 83.

    Purple is a stupid colour!

  98. böökje says:

    Dominoiler:
    Anyone else see the loss of size w the perron prv deal..

    With the draft pick, the net loss is likely to be more than 200lbs!

  99. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Gerta Rauss:
    Romulus Apotheosis,

    Oh, and some jazz and blues. Most of my jazz/blues(blues/jazz??) is on cassette. Probably 500 cassette tapes taking up space as well.

    can’t find the right clip, but this is close enough

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J4D-91srJlY

    those cassettes hold no value most likely… unless you can find a guy like this:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-z4iw8Ppo1o

  100. Gerta Rauss says:

    Romulus Apotheosis,

    Ha..!!.that’s what I was going for.

    I could see myself working in a chapeau shop…a haberdashery…that kind of thing.

    -Do you think you would enjoy that…?

    I don’t know..what are the hours..?

  101. Gerta Rauss says:

    And whoever mentioned Vinny Prospal in the last thread…that’s not bad,actually.

    I wonder if he and Hemsky have any history together.

    Prospal-Gordon-Hemsky..I could get behind a 3rd line like that.

    Apparently he can line up at all 3 forward postions to boot.

  102. Lowetide says:

    ‘on the bass, Derek Smalls, he wrote this!” Hahahahahahahaha

  103. jp says:

    Jesse:
    Woodguy,

    I think the most important thing that Tyler Dellow said about his whole Big Data series was that he feels as though many people make judgments on the aptitude of coaches without having hardly any insight into what they’re actually doing with the team. He went on to say after ten posts and what likely was weeks of work/research that he was only beginning to feel comfortable saying that a very specific tactical approach that Hemsky and Gagner were taking could be RK’s fault and that that was resulting in the black hole that was the second line.

    It seems to me that you are extrapolating these tactical deficiencies to the d corps. When you do this and combine it with saying things like “Carlyle did to TOR what RK did to EDM … He screwed his team”, it makes me very curious as to what work you did to come to such a definitive conclusion when after ten Big Data posts Tyler was only beginning to feel comfortable making a judgment call on one very specific tactical error being made off facepffs by 89 and 83.

    I think it’s fair to say that when a team undergoes a large change in shot or chance percentage year over year it’s likely due to the coach. The Oilers and Leafs both had big drops this past season compared to 2011-12. With the almost identical Oilers rosters both years it seems especially clear that the coach was likely the issue. This says nothing of the exact issues (which Tyler is trying to suss out), but very strongly suggests that the coach was a huge factor.

  104. jp says:

    “Steve Smith”: Is that why Mariusz Czerkawski was traded?

    You know he scored 26 goals for the Oilers in 1996-1997?That’s more goals than any Oiler scored in a season from 2007 – 2011, except for Dustin Penner in 2009-2010.And yet I somehow remember him as a profoundly secondary talent.There were some nice things on those late 90s squads.There was also Josef Beranek spending most of a season as our first-line centre after Doug Weight went down, mind you.Still, I’m nostalgic.

    I’d damn near forgotten about the Polish Prince. You’re right, he was the classic expansion team “star”. I remember that goal he scored where he bounced the puck off his own skate to elude the defenseman, then walked in to score. Most definitely some good things during those years along with the bad (the pinnacle of my frustration being watchin former #2 pick Pat Faloon do nothing all year on the 2nd line).

  105. Jesse says:

    jp: I think it’s fair to say that when a team undergoes a large change in shot or chance percentage year over year it’s likely due to the coach. The Oilers and Leafs both had big drops this past season compared to 2011-12. With the almost identical Oilers rosters both years it seems especially clear that the coach was likely the issue. This says nothing of the exact issues (which Tyler is trying to suss out), but very strongly suggests that the coach was a huge factor.

    I think with so many variables, including the many immeasurable effects of a lockout, it’s unreasonable to say with such definitive assurance that RK “screwed his team”.

  106. Tarkus says:

    No discussion of cheesecake album covers would be complete without those of Roxy Music, particularly their first five albums: https://threeinacrowd.wordpress.com/2009/01/30/roxy-music-cover-model/

    Musically speaking, I wanna like their stuff, but their debut was almost unlistenable. Nothing really memorable until Country Life. Avalon is pretty good though.

    Hockey.

  107. Lowetide says:

    Tarkus:
    No discussion of cheesecake album covers would be complete without those of Roxy Music, particularly their first five albums: https://threeinacrowd.wordpress.com/2009/01/30/roxy-music-cover-model/

    Musically speaking, I wanna like their stuff, but their debut was almost unlistenable.Nothing really memorable until Country Life.Avalon is pretty good though.

    Hockey.

    Did the first album not include Virginia Plain? THAT was a great bloody song.

  108. Tarkus says:

    Lowetide: Did the first album not include Virginia Plain? THAT was a great bloody song.

    It did indeed.

    I must say though, I only listened to that album once: I generally try to give music at least a second or a third chance. I don’t recall any songs in particular, but I distinctly remember thinking while I was listening to it, “I don’t know which is worse–this album, or Their Satanic Majesties Request”.

    Perhaps another run-through is in order.

  109. jp says:

    Jesse: I think with so many variables, including the many immeasurable effects of a lockout, it’s unreasonable to say with such definitive assurance that RK “screwed his team”.

    Maybe “screwed the team” is going a little far, but I think systems play determined by the coach is pretty high on the list of variables affecting team performance. Given the roster continuity I think it’s more than reasonable to lay a very large portion of the blame on the coach. I’m not sure what other variables could be more important than that one…

  110. Jesse says:

    jp: Maybe “screwed the team” is going a little far, but I think systems play determined by the coach is pretty high on the list of variables affecting team performance. Given the roster continuity I think it’s more than reasonable to lay a very large portion of the blame on the coach. I’m not sure what other variables could be more important than that one…

    Well, since I’m referring to WG’s post about the defence, I think variables like Justin Schultz’s inexperience with such a long/compressed season, the potentially worsening play of Whitney, the inclusion of a new player (Fistric), differing fitness levels coming out of the lockout, etc, etc, etc.

    Until I see a substantial amount of data based on something that could, for example be paired with video as tyler did, to suggest that Ralph’s new defensive system screwed the team, I think it’s too much to say that so definitively. You can also add in the fact that Steve Smith is the defensive coach as another variable to the equation.

  111. stevezie says:

    “Steve Smith”,

    Czerkawski, Beranek… man we had some great names. Remember Roman Oksiuta? As a kid I only loved the foreigners. Such cool names.

  112. Lowetide says:

    Ralph Intranuovo. Likely to come up at some point.

  113. stevezie says:

    Lowetide,

    Nailed it.

    Mike Bishai was kind of cool too. He is a little more recent, and gets extra points for being at the center of a famous moment.

  114. "Steve Smith" says:

    stevezie,

    Ilya Byakin…Ilya motherfuckin’ Byakin.

  115. jp says:

    Jesse: Well, since I’m referring to WG’s post about the defence, I think variables like Justin Schultz’s inexperience with such a long/compressed season, the potentially worsening play of Whitney, the inclusion of a new player (Fistric), differing fitness levels coming out of the lockout, etc, etc, etc.

    Until I see a substantial amount of data based on something that could, for example be paired with video as tyler did, tosuggest that Ralph’s new defensive system screwed the team, I think it’s too much to say that so definitively. You can also add in the fact that Steve Smith is the defensive coach as another variable to the equation.

    I can agree that the assessment may have been too harsh and definitive. But I responded because I completely agree with WG that the most likely explanation for the regression the Oilers saw last year is the coach.

    This sort of thing is extremely difficult things to prove conclusively, which I guess was your main original point. That said, I still think it’s by far the most reasonable explanation for the regression we saw. 100% certain? No. Very likely? Yes.

  116. stevezie says:

    Anatoli Semenov. The great Vladamir Ruzika.

    Ilya Byakin sounds like a sentence though. Beautiful.

  117. jp says:

    I had really high hopes for Mats Lindgren. Probably too high.

  118. Tarkus says:

    The mid-90′s weren’t very kind to the Oil…but at least we were treated to 21 games–and one lowly assist (because, as Jackson Browne reminded us, “one is the lowliest number”)–of Mr. Micah Aivazoff.

    http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=755

    Note that Schwenningen’s franchise eventually moved to Buffalo ;)

  119. jp says:

    I’m not sure if Dan Cleary actually played for the Oilers in the 90′s (17 GP in 1999-00), but he could be a decent addition to the Oilers current 3rd line. Not sure how much gas he has left, but he turned into a real solid player in Detroit. 1 yr at 1.5-2M would be step 2 in building a 3rd line that can play against NHL players.

  120. Maggie the Monkey says:

    böökje: If there is one thing I learned from Perfect Strangers, its that if you take both humour and passionate/noble statements, they both seem to be amplified when the individual has an accent and imperfect English.

    See Kawasaki, Munenori.

    A few years from now he might be the only thing I remember about this Jays season, sadly.

  121. Woodguy says:

    Jesse:
    Woodguy,

    I think the most important thing that Tyler Dellow said about his whole Big Data series was that he feels as though many people make judgments on the aptitude of coaches without having hardly any insight into what they’re actually doing with the team. He went on to say after ten posts and what likely was weeks of work/research that he was only beginning to feel comfortable saying that a very specific tactical approach that Hemsky and Gagner were taking could be RK’s fault and that that was resulting in the black hole that was the second line.

    It seems to me that you are extrapolating these tactical deficiencies to the d corps. When you do this and combine it with saying things like “Carlyle did to TOR what RK did to EDM … He screwed his team”, it makes me very curious as to what work you did to come to such a definitive conclusion when after ten Big Data posts Tyler was only beginning to feel comfortable making a judgment call on one very specific tactical error being made off facepffs by 89 and 83.

    I’m looking at RK’s results in terms of shot attempt differential with essentially the same team as Renney had. You can make an argument that RK actually had a little bit more talent. Same with Carlyle.

    Fenclose = shot attempt differential (not including blocked shots) when the score is within 2. Its the most competitive game states (i.e. no garbage time)

    EDM’s Fenclose

    11/12 48.08% (24th in NHL)
    12/13 44.48% (28th in NHL)

    Its shows up as well in some of the players we’ve been discussing. Smid/Petry Gagner/.Hemsky.

    These players were also off 4-5% in the shot differentials, as were others.

    As for the specific tactics, I’ll leave that to those who know better, I’m just looking at the results.

    I did dislike his dmen pinching so much at the opposition blue. Poorly executed throughout the year and he never wavered from it.

    I also pretty much hated him giving the 4th line Dzone starts against the other team’s scoring lines, something he did often enough that it turned into a meme.

    As for TOR:

    Fenclose
    11/12 46.7% 28th
    12/13 44.11% 29th

    The results are not as stunning as Edmonton’s, but TOR was improving at the end of 11/12 in these terms and Carlyle took them back to the hole.

    6/8 of TOR”s Dmen had zone starts of 50% or greater in 11/12, in 12/13, not one Dman started 50%+ in the ozone.

    Under both coaches the puck spent more time in their own end than with the previous coach.

    Given the threads that Romulus linked to up top of the thread you can read through what people who watch the Leafs close have observed.

  122. Woodguy says:

    These guys sound really bad.

    LT, gonna have to get on JJ.

    If he’ll let these guys have MacT, need to start pounding on him for MacT.

  123. FastOil says:

    Dominoiler:
    Anyone else see the loss of size w the perron prv deal..

    Not really. 5 lbs and Perron is far more aggressive in style, meaning the Oilers just got bigger. You can be huge but if you don’t use it what’s it worth? And 6′ 2-3″ and 205-208 isn’t that big. Tall and skinny. Lucic is big.

  124. Lowetide says:

    Woodguy:
    These guys sound really bad.

    LT, gonna have to get on JJ.

    If he’ll let these guys have MacT, need to start pounding on him for MacT.

    I think it’s very cool that MacT is doing that and for this young man to have gotten him on his show.

  125. Woodguy says:

    Lowetide: I think it’s very cool that MacT is doing that and for this young man to have gotten him on his show.

    Its great that MacT is willing to do stuff like this.

    The host has to have some connection to the Oilers, no?

    Just doesn’t fit with JJ’s usual MO.

  126. jp says:

    Woodguy:
    These guys sound really bad.

    LT, gonna have to get on JJ.

    If he’ll let these guys have MacT, need to start pounding on him for MacT.

    Yeah LT, as long as these guys didn’t ruin it for you, maybe MacT would join you on air.

  127. Woodguy says:

    fifthcartel:
    This guy has a strange voice.

    He has a nasal quality that you hear with some hearing impaired people.

    Perhaps he has had those issues as well.

  128. Lowetide says:

    Woodguy: Its great that MacT is willing to do stuff like this.

    The host has to have some connection to the Oilers, no?

    Just doesn’t fit with JJ’s usual MO.

    Either way, I think it kind of shows a little bit of willingness to innovate. Hopefully we see more of it!

  129. jp says:

    Not a huge amount of new info. 2 notable things for me:

    1) Decent chance Hemsky will be back.

    2) MacT is happy with having improved the depth of the bottom 6 forwards. Yikes. I’d not really even considered he could be done with adding forwards, but it sounds like that could be possible…

  130. Lowetide says:

    jp:
    Not a huge amount of new info. 2 notable things for me:

    1) Decent chance Hemsky will be back.

    2) MacT is happy with having improved the depth of the bottom 6 forwards. Yikes. I’d not really even considered he could be done with adding forwards, but it sounds like that could be possible…

    Well it’s not so bad if they are keeping Hemsky, actually that’s pretty encouraging. Hemsky is a really good hockey player and in a normal season will get other teams fits. He worked with Horcoff and Gagner at C, don’t really know enough about Gordon’s skills to know if there’s a match there, but if they could have Smyth drink from the fountain of youth…..

  131. Woodguy says:

    Ahh, didn’t realize this was Brad Bartko’s show. Saw him on the news the other day.

    Good for him.

    MacT giving him an interview is pretty awesome.

    Clip of Brad on CTV: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DPx6vnlCQ4c

  132. fifthcartel says:

    Woodguy,

    Ah, I feel kinda bad now.

    That is a really nice thing for MacT to do.

  133. Lowetide says:

    fifthcartel:
    Woodguy,

    Ah, I feel kinda bad now.

    That is a really nice thing for MacT to do.

    It’s all good, took care of it. :-)

    I have to say that is such a terrific thing all around. For this young man to pursue his dreams and for the Oilers and MacT to recognize the opportunity to help someone on his way to what is hopefully a career in the broadcast industry. Impressive.

    As an aside, I had to do an ‘interview’ with a well known personality for my broadcast school back in the 1970s. I interviewed Bryan Hall. He was so kind, I mean incredibly kind. I’ve never forgotten it.

  134. stevezie says:

    Hemsky might be back! Glory! Glory!

    after making peace with trading him, I have backslidden to my old ways. I know everyone knows (or has at least heard) this, but I want to say it. here is my Hemsky testimony, feel free to skip it.

    Right now no one else, not one other player in the bottom six can be considered even an average offensive player. The bottom six will not score. The top six will not worry that anyone is even considering competing for their spot. Injuries will screw us.

    Also, right now because Hemsky is coming off a poor season his value is negligible. Any trade is likely going to make us a worse hockey team. It would be different if we needed his cap money to get someone else, but we don’t.

    Injury might mean he is just done. This sucks. But if he can come back and be even a decent player it will mean a better power play, a third line scoring threat, a push on the top two lines, and a possible injury replacement when someone inevitably gets hurt.

    If he (understandably) would like to move on, start somewhere new, we’re probably better off moving him. If I’m wrong and we can get something good for him, then go ahead. A fresh start could be good for both parties, and we could use a little variety in our line-up.

    If, however, he wants to stay, and all offers are just for middling picks and/or someone else’s headache, let’s keep the good hockey player.

    I’d rather have three scoring lines than a true shut-down line anyway. Good scoring lines keep the puck- this is the best way to “shut-down”. Plus Hemsky is more useful in his own zone than he gets (mainstream) credit for.

    Let us pray.

  135. jp says:

    Woodguy:
    Ahh, didn’t realize this was Brad Bartko’s show.Saw him on the news the other day.

    Good for him.

    MacT giving him an interview is pretty awesome.

    Clip of Brad on CTV: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DPx6vnlCQ4c

    That is cool for sure.

    Lowetide: Well it’s not so bad if they are keeping Hemsky, actually that’s pretty encouraging. Hemsky is a really good hockey player and in a normal season will get other teams fits. He worked with Horcoff and Gagner at C, don’t really know enough about Gordon’s skills to know if there’s a match there, but if they could have Smyth drink from the fountain of youth…..

    Yeah, I think the shock of MacT being happy with the improved depth of the bottom 6 got the better of me there. If Hemsky is sticking around for another year it’s a pretty big deal (and goes a long way to helping the bottom 6). MacT didn’t say anything definitively obviously, but he seemed to regress further from expecting to move Hemsky as he’d stated before.

    stevezie,

    Well said!

  136. Hammers says:

    Said it a few day ago .There are some UFA players or maybe Smyth/Gordon /Hemsky for 40 games. Leaves Jones Lander & ???? Brown or this years Finn . Just sign Gags then we can relax. Hemsky brings more at trade dealine .

  137. Gerta Rauss says:

    Hammers:
    Said it a few day ago .There are some UFA players or maybe Smyth/Gordon /Hemsky for 40 games. Leaves Jones Lander & ???? Brown or this years Finn . Just sign Gags then we can relax. Hemsky brings more at trade dealine .

    Vinny Prospal was mentioned in the last thread. I wouldn’t mind building a 3line around Gordon and Hemsky and find them a left winger that can hold his own defensively.

    If Gagner comes back and centers that 2line, they are going to need softer minutes, even with the addition of Perron, and the need for a 3line that can handle a little heavy lifting is even more important.

    Finding a UFA 3LW would be easier than moving Hemsky and then trying the fit the pieces together after a Hemsky trade.

  138. Lucinius says:

    I thought Prospal was going to retire if the team he wanted to play for passed on him?

  139. Beaker says:

    Hammers:
    Said it a few day ago .There are some UFA players or maybe Smyth/Gordon /Hemsky for 40 games. Leaves Jones Lander & ???? Brown or this years Finn . Just sign Gags then we can relax. Hemsky brings more at trade dealine .

    Until we are in a playoff spot at the deadline and we keep him for a run and he walks for nohting…

  140. DeadmanWaking says:

    böökje: Ok, perhaps the disclaimer should read over 30. Over 40 disclaimers should be used for All in the Family, Happy Days, and Different Strokes.

    Flirting with 50 disclaimers apply to Mod Squad, Hawaii Five-O, Kojak, and All in the Family.

    For me, the division is anything after the last Apollo mission / Paul Henderson goal.

    First episode:

    Get Smart 1965
    Hogan’s Heroes 1965
    I Dream of Jeannie 1965
    The Beverly Hillbillies 1966
    Star Trek 1966
    Mod Squad 1968
    Five-O 1968
    All in the Family 1971
    M*A*S*H 1972
    Kojak 1973

    Fossils clearly predating the K-T boundary, still on the dial in my early childhood:

    I Love Lucy 1951
    Lassie 1954
    Leave it to Beaver 1957
    The Rocky and Bullwinkle Show 1959
    The Flintstones 1960
    The Mr Magoo Show early 1960s
    The Munsters 1964
    The Adam Family 1964
    The Dick Van Dyke Show 1964
    Green Acres 1965
    Batman 1966
    Hollywood Squares 1966
    The Hilarious House of Frightenstein 1971

    Of those, I would settle for The Flintstones or Batman. Trek never seemed dated unless there was a woman on the screen making eyes at Kirk. We were still watching B&W so I didn’t find out for years that most of these women were green.

    Frightenstein played about a decade older than it really was. I always had time for five minutes of Vincent Price doing some campy thing I figured would someday make more sense. Don’t know if that ever happened, though. It sure beat watching Paul Lynde snigger at his own jokes. WFT? That was the first time in my life I thought to myself “WTF?” only I didn’t yet know all those words.

    Lucy had amazing staying power, until I reached an age where it was a toss-up between a good episode of Lucy or a bad episode of Gilligan’s Island, depending on whether I wanted to laugh or snicker. Get Smart and Hogan’s Heroes also aged well, but perhaps Love Boat and Fantasy Island had something to do with that.

    And what’s with Green Acres in the middle of that excellent draft year? At the time I thought it predated Lassie and Mr Ed. Some onion-toting executive producer’s last hurrah?

  141. spoiler says:

    DeadmanWaking: Flirting with 50 disclaimers apply to Mod Squad, Hawaii Five-O, Kojak, and All in the Family.

    For me, the division is anything after the last Apollo mission / Paul Henderson goal.

    First episode:

    Get Smart 1965
    Hogan’s Heroes 1965
    I Dream of Jeannie 1965
    The Beverly Hillbillies 1966
    Star Trek 1966
    Mod Squad1968
    Five-O1968
    All in the Family 1971
    M*A*S*H 1972
    Kojak1973

    Fossils clearly predating the K-T boundary, still on the dial in my early childhood:

    I Love Lucy 1951
    Lassie 1954
    Leave it to Beaver 1957
    The Rocky and Bullwinkle Show1959
    The Flintstones 1960
    The Mr Magoo Showearly 1960s
    The Munsters 1964
    The Adam Family 1964
    The Dick Van Dyke Show 1964
    Green Acres 1965
    Batman 1966
    Hollywood Squares 1966
    The Hilarious House of Frightenstein1971

    Ahem!

    Why is Grandpa Sneezby not on that list?

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