FREE AGENCY 2013 POST 1: WHERE IS EVERYBODY?

Draft weekend brought another highly touted defenseman, a Q winger with an interesting skill set and about two miles of Russians. None of them will help Craig MacTavish this fall, and that’s what this week is all about–the list.

THE LIST

  1. Top 4 defender (Braydon Coburn???)
  2. Sign Sam Gagner to a multi-year deal that has begins with a number in the 4′s
  3. Get Paajarvi signed and then find a role that suits him (suspect it’s 3line).
  4. NHL goalie
  5. Find a 2line L who can complement Gagner-Yakupov with puck retrieval, blocking out the sun, etc
  6. Find a 3line R
  7. Find a 3line C
  8. Find a 4line C
  9. Deal Hemsky for immediate help (even if its a checker).
  10. Deal Horcoff or slot him into the 3line job for which he is actually ideal.
  11. Decide on Lander/Belanger or other for 13F (and 14F if they go with 7D).
  12. Better blue depth (MacT has done this with Belov, plus Klefbom/Fedun/Marincin)
  13. AHL #1/NHL #3 goalie
  14. Sign Paul Ranger 

FREE AGENT LIST (OILER EDITION)

Let’s have a look, no specific order of preference (my list is Stalberg, Ranger and Khudobin) but the big names are at the top.

  1. C Vincent Lecavalier. He’ll want a long term deal, but an off the gauge one-year offer might get his attention. Why not try?
  2. R Nathan Horton, Boston: 27-year old will have all kinds of options this summer.  I would rank this player as an ideal, but possibly unrealistic option. If MacT lands him, that should be considered a massive win.
  3. C Valtteri Filppula. MacT could hit a big fly with this Finn C, who has skill, 2-way ability and has had tremendous success over his NHL years. If MacT is looking for a free agent option to send a clear message to players, fans, and league, this is the free agent to procure over the summer.
  4. R David Clarkson, New Jersey:  29-year old. Although it is unlikely Edmonton would be his first option, I think he is pretty close to a ‘perfect fit’ for this team and perhaps worthy of an overpay. Should MacT get him, it should be considered in the same category as a Nathan Horton/Filppula acquisition.
  5. W Viktor Stalberg. If the Oilers could sign him at a reasonable number and give him the soft parade with Gagner-Yakupov I think we might be looking at another 20 goal season.
  6. L Clarke MacArthur. Veteran LW who can score goals and hangs in there in the tough going. Leafs may still sign him but should he come available, MacArthur may be an ideal addition to the Gagner-Yakupov duo. He’s young enough to hang around for the good times, but experienced enough to be a part of the elder statesman group MacT is probably going to bring in to replace Horcoff.
  7. C Daniel Briere: Another solid offensive player when healthy, he’s long in the tooth now but the guy can create when he’s right.
  8. C Boyd Gordon. A strong 2-way option for any team, suspect he’ll have a lot of interest in a very competitive free agent summer. The Oilers have had success in the last 12 months (Schultz, Belov), and signing Gordon would be a large item. Expect he would see both 3rd and 4th line C duties depending on situation/how many holes they can repair this summer.
  9. L Ryan Clowe. In looking for ‘puck retrieval’ options, I didn’t find a whole hell of them. Clowe will be over priced and may be on the downside, but he fits the description.
  10. D Paul Ranger. I think he’d qualify under improved depth, but there does seem to be a player here. He’s 28, mobile, smart and has average size. This isn’t a major ‘name’ option, but NHL history is rife with defenders who wandered the wilderness, settled in late 20′s, and had significant NHL careers. Steve Staios arrived in Edmonton, age 28.
  11. G Anton Khudobin. Free agent Bruin backup may want to play in the NHL more often than he does currently, he would be the ideal solution.

Apparently the club is about to sign another Russian blue too–Grebeshkov?????!?!?!? I’m wearing tinfoil today just in case.

RFA’S

I believe the deadline is today at 5pm to qualify the rfa’s, so we should be hearing news today about these players.

  • Sam Gagner: Last we heard talks were progressing, of course they still have time but the key element here is to get something done before the young center files for arbitration. He could file, accept the offer and become a UFA one year from now. 
  • Magnus Paajarvi: A little exposed, I thought he could have been dealt at the draft–remember, the new GM has no loyalty to these guys. Ask MacT how he feels about Darnell Nurse and there’s a personal connection. Paajarvi is just some guy–except that he’s not just some guy. I’m hopeful they get a contract done at a reasonable dollar and term. Important signing, despite being somewhat under the radar.
  • Theo Peckham: I think he’s gone. I hope he finds a career, and I know he’ll get another chance.
  • Taylor Fedun: Has a very good chance of getting a contract and I think he’s going to play some NHL in 2013-14.
  • Colten Teubert: Suspect the Oilers walk him.
  • Phil Cornet: A tweener. Don’t know what they’ll do.

Ballad_of_Cable_Hogue-1970-MSS-030 (1)

TRADING DOWN

Yesterday I asked a question about the Oilers dealing down, basically listing all the players Edmonton got for the Zykov selection and asking if it looked like good value. Plenty of quality comments, and Eric Tulsky (big brain) even wrote a post over at the C&B stating the lack of wisdom in those choices. Tulsky’s look is based on previous NHL trades, and looks solid; my question though has more to do with the choices in this draft at this time. If you’re MacT and can acquire 5 bullets for one and your people are saying some of the new bullets are about as good as the one you’re dealing away?

I think the Oilers had specific players or a range in mind–otherwise why do this deal?–and based on the results I’d say it worked out. They began with three picks in the top 100 and ended up with 6 players in Corey Pronman’s top 100, and did it by getting less than full historic value for #37. Does that then (sorry for my wording) make the Tulsky point moot? I don’t know. I’m asking.

Spoiler wrote an interesting item on the subject:

  • SpOILer: Yesterday was a crucial turning point in the History of Oiler Management…An Edmonton Oiler GM schooled the NHL in Math class. Say that out loud if you’re not feeling the import. Let’s use Captain Happy Pills’ probabilities from the Sloan video:5) 2nd and 3rd rounds 25% (slight variance between rounds)6) 4th, 5th, 6th, 7th rounds 10%83, 88, 94, 96, 113Two 3rd rounders and three 4th rounders…The two 3rd rounders have a 25% chance each, but let’s be conservative and say 20%. The three 4ths have 10% chance each. The outcomes are mutually exclusive of each other, so their joint probability is a union. Think of it as the odds of rolling a 1, with two 5 sided dice and three 10 sided dice, if you prefer (or if you are an ex-AD&Der, or perhaps a campfire Yahtzee player). This is expressed arithmetically as:2/10 + 2/10 + 1/10 + 1/10 + 1/10 = 7/10 or 70% chance of one of the picks becoming an NHLer.70%.Versus a 25% chance.Schooled.You move up when you are desperate to add all stars, but you really need to get into the 1st round to have a better than a 1 in 10 shot. Nor does it matter what Zykov becomes, the math says you make this bet every day of the week. You might not win this hand, but you will win more hands over the long run. We can quibble about the picks, and will, but we shouldn’t be quibbling about the trade in face of such blatant (an simple) math. This hearkens to, no exemplifies DMW’s post the other day about the natural biases for making the same kind of mistakes, especially when perceiving losses to improvements despite the final outcomes being the same. Prescient post, DMW. As for the quality of the picks coming back, that outcome is heavily dependent on what is available. The rank of pairs that are available to be traded are out of one’s control and will vary greatly from season to season.Ladies and Gentleman, the Edmonton Oilers know math. It’s about fuckin time. (but yahoo!)

Later today or tomorrow, I’m going to post my opinion on this Oilers draft. It is wildly different than any of their drafts I can recall, and I recall all of them.

THE LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

Ballad_of_Cable_Hogue-1970-MSS-050

Today at 10am on the show, we’ll talk draft, free agency, trades, Gillis, Phoenix and more. Scheduled to appear:

Comments welcome, 10-1260 via text, @Lowetide_ on twitter and I do check the comments on the blog during the show. Questions for guests also welcome. Hope you can tune in!

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139 Responses to "FREE AGENCY 2013 POST 1: WHERE IS EVERYBODY?"

  1. Ben says:

    Anyone have a scouting report on Greb’s last few seasons in the K?

  2. jonrmcleod says:

    Where is everybody?! Where did all the free agents go?!

    Arby’s. Roast beef sale.

    (For some reason, this commercial cannot be found anywhere on the internet.)

  3. Lowetide says:

    Grebeshkov had a frightening year this past season

    http://en.khl.ru/players/11/

  4. Caribbeerman says:

    Lowetide…

    “Apparently the club is about to sign another Russian blue too–Grebeshkov?????!?!?!? I’m wearing tinfoil today just in case”

    Where did this come from?

    It would mean that one of our D is on the way out perhaps for something bigger…part of a package for Coburn?

  5. Lowetide says:

    Caribbeerman:
    Lowetide…

    “Apparently the club is about to sign another Russian blue too–Grebeshkov?????!?!?!? I’m wearing tinfoil today just in case”

    Where did this come from?

    It would mean that one of our D is on the way out perhaps for something bigger…part of a package for Coburn?

    Someone over at ON mentioned Bob Stauffer threw it out there during draft coverage.

  6. murphy says:

    Mact has said he knows C depth is a major concern, he said he prefers samwise at RW and he is staying with the club, and he said horc is on the way out. These are all facts.

    My opinion is that we will see some moves this week to shore up the C position now and into the future. These moves may not be popular because they will likely include one of our top two RW’s ebs or yak who samwise will replace afterwards, and some d prospects (gernat or musil) leaving town, with a few high cap contracts coming back.

    I would guess firmly in the radar would be a couturier or johansen (young and could be traded for other needs) and a brodizak or stoll (traded for cap reasons). It will be a fun and emotional week.

  7. Lowetide says:

    Murphy: They can trade Hemsky and Horcoff for centermen in two different trades should they choose.

  8. slopitch says:

    Busy weekend and haven’t been able to catch up until this morning…

    Saw your top 30 list. One think I like is that while it doesn’t have an elite forward prospect on it this year, its loaded with players over 6″2. I would have rather had Nichuskin (mostly because he could have played this year) over Nurse but I get the long term void he’s filling. Truthfully Nichuskin would not have been an impact player this year anyways.

    As for the draft trades – I guess we can conclude that either NHL teams have have undervalued depth picks and the recent trades were overpays or the Oilers didn’t get quite enough value. Tulsky is working on a pretty small sample size (2-3 trades per year) but I wouldn’t want to argue him on that. Smart guy. I did like the Russian players they added with those picks so its possible both sides are right.

    My info on Schneider still stands. I wonder how close it actually was. Good on NJ to get a quality goalie.

    Finally regarding free agency, that’s a pretty mediocre list to choose from. Its too bad Horton and Clarkson are RW. I like MacArthur and Gordon. I’ve heard MacT say he will be wary of free agents as you typically over pay. I still think the trade route is the best option. He needs to add 5-6 players but I imagine 3 or less via UFA. Perhaps the Horcoff and Hemsky moves free up some cap space though so who knows. Busy times.

  9. godot10 says:

    Tulsky’s valuation model is entirely price-based unconnected to any fundamental hockey-results metric. i.e. It is the wrong valuation model to use.

    Spoiler and Bookje (who has another post up) have it right. They use a hockey-results based valuation metric.

    MacT, advanced stats guru, schools some so-called blogosphere advanced stats gurus.

  10. Maggie the Monkey says:

    Could Patrick Thoresen count as a Russian because of his play in the KHL? If he can be had for fourth line money it would be a steal, and a significant upgrade.

  11. Ben says:

    Any thoughts on Galiardi? RFA…

  12. "Steve Smith" says:

    Think of it as the odds of rolling a 1, with two 5 sided dice and three 10 sided dice, if you prefer.

    Uh, not to state the obvious, but the chances of that aren’t 70%, they’re 1 – (.8 * .8 * .9 * .9 * .9) = 53.344%. So still better than the 25% we gave up, but not as good as you’d get just by adding up the probabilities.

    (For an easy explanation of why just adding up the probabilities, what are the odds of getting a player with eleven fourth round picks? If you add them up, you get 110%, which obviously can’t be right. The correct answer is ~61.6%.)

    Of course, those are the odds of getting at least one player. To really compare the probabilities, you’d have to consider the possibility of getting more than one player, which makes the trades look better (because they allow us that possibility, while the original pick didn’t).

    On the other hand, this doesn’t factor in the quality of player, and I think it’s probably a fair bet that the 25% of players who pay off in the third round are, on average, better than the 10% who pay off in the fourth round, though I’m not aware of any research on that point. That would, if true, make the trade a little worse.

    The other flaw with all of this is that it treats all third round picks as being equal, so that trading 61 for 90 is a lateral move, which I think we all know intuitively is wrong – the brackets we’re using are approximations.

    I still think MacT won the trades, and agree with Godot about Tulsky.

  13. murphy says:

    Lowetide,

    I’ve been wrong many times before but I would be shocked if they got anyone who could still play for horcoff, let alone an effective C.

    Hemsky could pull back a brodizak type if they ate half of his salary and added an extra asset or two.

    Hemsky and horcoff alone will not fix the situation at C, it will take one or two players we don’t want to give up, it’s the nature of a trade. The point is if we want to see improvement we need to upgrade at this position and it is never easy to do so.

  14. Racki says:

    First off, I’m more inclined to believe SpOILer’s “math” (even though Steve Smith spotted an error), but Copper N Blue did some write up on the parlaying of the 2nd into several lesser picks and figure we got hosed. I disagree completely.

    As far as free agents… I really think Gagner needs to be here on the wing. Heck of a player, but I just can’t get over how poor he is on the dot, and the defensive flaws. Unless he’s very sheltered, I think he has to be on the wing here this year (assuming he isn’t traded).

    I’d add Stephen Weiss to the list of potential UFA signings. The unfortunate thing is he is small, but he brings similar enough offensive numbers, a solid D game, and good faceoff prowess. For the last 6 years, he’s been consistently over 50%. He even had wrist issues this year (he had off-season surgery for this) and was still above 50. I think he could easily be a 2nd line C here.

    That said, my first choice right now would be Lecavalier, but he’s getting a lot of interest around the league.. the world is his oyster, and while I don’t think we’re hockey Siberia anymore, I can’t see Edmonton being his top choice at all, unless we really overpay. Similar scenario with Nathan Horton (although I believe we really could use a player of his abilities, even though he is a winger).

    Of the centres available, we might have to “settle” for Filppula. He would be an improvement at C, and could handle 2nd line duties even if “Gagner-Filippula-Yakupov” doesn’t have anywhere as nice a ring to it as “Gagner-Lecavalier-Yakupov”.

  15. Lowetide says:

    Murphy: Horcoff IS an effective center. That has value.

  16. Maverick says:

    LT, could you please as Guy in his opinion on which Canadian team did the best at the draft?

    Looking over the results on nhl.com I think Winnipeg did an excellent job drafting and also picked up Frolik from Chicago. They get my vote.

    As for the Oilers, if they can walk away on Friday with Clarke MacArthur, Boyd Gordon and then trade Hemsky for Zac Smith over the summer, resign Gagner ($4.5/5 years) and resign MPS plus add Ranger or Grebeshkov. I think that would be a really good start to the summer. Still need one more strong winger for puck retrieval in my opinion.

  17. FrankenOil says:

    No one here can deny that Tambo left MacT a drafting black hole this year. No 3 or 4 was a huge hole and I’m impressed what the Oilers were able to accomplish. I thin k a lot of the disappointment over the way the picks is a little overblown and a touch misdirected. If the Oilers made a few “bold moves,” no one would even be discussing trading down other than to talk about the prospects themselves.

    Imho, it was imperative that MacT had a big haul at this draft so he could trade prospects that were a little further along in their development without completely emptying the cupboard. If the Oilers trade Marincin, Gernat, Musil for NHL players, they still have their top 2 prospects in Nurse and Klefbom along with a few lesser heralded prospects in Davidson, Fedun and SImpson to be able to keep the pipeline flowing in the next year or two.

  18. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Ballad of Cable Hogue.

    Probably the only movie in the Peckinpah catalogue that comes anywhere near “sweetness” in its appreciation of life. Junior Bonner falls into dark sentimentality and nostalgia but never really approaches “sweetness.”

    Life is nasty, brutish and short in the Peckinpah universe. His (at times excessive) use of split screens and slo-mo always serve to dramatize the alienation his characters feel from their environment and fellow-humanity. And when he’s not alienating his characters he’s alienating his audience. Have a look at the opening of Junior Bonner here:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5VUkt-BP0Cw

    Hey you! you think this is some wistful romance of a bygone time and place?! Guess what, I’m going to use technology to manipulate this fucker to the nth degree! I’m going to cut the shit out of these images, slow them down and juxtapose them maniacally until you people get it through your thick skulls that nothing is sacred and special, I’m going to force you to take notice of what I’ve done to your romance that I too share. I love this bygone space in my memory, but I know it is false and I must destroy it!! Everything is terrible.

  19. russ99 says:

    #2 and 3 need to get done today, qualifying just opens up the door on offer sheets.

    I don’t understand the delay on Gagner. Either sign him or deal him already.

  20. "Steve Smith" says:

    Racki:
    First off, I’m more inclined to believe SpOILer’s “math” (even though Steve Smith spotted an error),

    The error wasn’t so much in the math as it was in how he expressed his point. 70% is relevant in that it’s the expected return of the picks in aggregate (i.e. in all of the parallel universes in which we run those picks, we wind up with an average of .7 NHL players, while we’d have wound up with an average of .25 of them if we’d kept the original pick). But that’s not at all the same as saying that we have a 70% of landing an NHL player (or of rolling a one on those bizarro dice).

  21. goldenchild says:

    Lets say they get a 3/4 C (ex Smith from Ott) for Hemsky and sign a 3/4 C (Gordon). Sign McCarthur. Sign Ranger. Trade for a D man slotted lower more likely a 4/5guy. Sign Ray Emery. So basically no home runs but singles and maybe a couple of doubles.
    Is that a succesful summer? Is that enough to get them into playoffs?
    I think one thing that needs to be kept in mind is the goal for this season, its not win a Stanley its to play at least 86 games. Thats why i dont get the selling out for an upgrade at G, Dubnyk may not be good enough lead you to a Stanley but there is nothing hes done so far that makes me feel he cant win enough over the season to get them into the playoffs.

  22. Racki says:

    russ99:
    #2 and 3 need to get done today, qualifying just opens up the door on offer sheets.

    I don’t understand the delay on Gagner. Either sign him or deal him already.

    I don’t think MacT sees Gagner as a very viable centre option, and I don’t blame him. I really like Gagner, but I think we’d be better off with him on the wing. We need size on the team, so perhaps there’s some stalling because he might not be the best option at wing either. In which case, if he’s wanting in the $5M range (just a guess), that money might be better used elsewhere… but we’re not trading him yet cause we might come out empty handed.

    Anyways, just my own theories.. not necessarily reality (and doubtful I got it all right, if any of it.. although I really don’t think MacT likes Gagner at C).

  23. goldenchild says:

    Also the fact that thi team has almost no options for the 3rd and 4th lines from its prospect pool when they have been drafting at the top of every round the last 3 years is a critical faliure of the Tambelini era. You just cant miss that often at the top of the 2nd and 3rd rds.

  24. oilabroad says:

    I have to wonder after the draft if mact still has the attitiude that signing free agents is not the way to go due to having to overpay… Seems to me prices were even higher over the weekend for useful pieces. I would rather overpay in dollars than give up too many of the assets we already have. Hoping mact goes all in this week

  25. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Of the wing candidates:

    clarkson
    horton
    clowe
    stalberg
    macarthur

    who are the probable signs? Clarkson, Clowe and Horton all opted for the move it would seem. That probably means they saw the cap space as slight on their own team and are looking for $$. While we’ve got money to spend, we can be matched and other teams are going to have “intangibles” of climate, non-fishbowl, bigger city, etc. Not sure any come over without a massive overpay… which they might just get elsewhere anyway (silly season!)

    The other two (stalberg and macarthur) seem like more viable options and I’m guessing they come cheaper.

    Any idea when MacT signals who he’s sent a plane ticket to for the pre-july 5th have-a-look?

  26. Gret99zky says:

    LT, I would agree Horcoff has value to the Oilers with its current line-up and depth. He is probably considered a Jack in hand.

    However, for other teams in the league he is likely a 6 or 7.

    The market will decide his true value.

    And if MacT can find no takers, well that should say something too.

  27. dulock says:

    LT,

    I went through all the drafts 1987-2006 to determine how many players played 160 games or more taken with the 37th vs 83,88,94,96 & 113. The 37th had 4 players in that time frame while the rest had 22(if Thomas Greiss hits 160 it’ll be 23). Interestingly, the five drafts 2002-2006 were 2 and 2 (Tim Brent, Kevin Klein vs Chris Bulter, Zach Stortini). Only in 2002 and 2003 was the 37th pick a clear win and there were 11 that the rest of the picks clearly won. Great move.

  28. RexLibris says:

    From my perspective, MacTavish was able to diversify a range of assets that had been mismanaged and narrowly depleted by his predecessor. It was like trading your seat at one casino table to place smaller wagers on a number of different tables and games. Overall it increased his chances of walking out the door with money in his pocket.

    As for the free-agents, I’d like to see them add Stalberg, Gordon, Grebeshkov and Gordon. Filpulla would be terrific, but also quite a steal so I won’t hold my breath.

    I suspect we may have to face the possibility that Gagner starts the season at center. At least until we can convince Holmgren to trade us Couturier for Teubert. ;)

  29. Jordan says:

    1 – I really REALLY like how MacT has decided that the best way to improve the team is to poach good players from other leagues and see if they can play NHL hockey. Belov is a smart play, and if we can even get one or two more players over here and improve our depth that way… Awesome! Free value!

    2 – The fact that those decisions are being made in tandem with more Russian selections is fascinating. I think there is a lot of value in targeting the Russians, as they already know what cold hard continental winters are like. Smart play. Making Edmonton an attractive option for the KHL FAs will likely provide value over time as well.

    3 – No to Grebeshkov. He’s gotten infinitely worse since he left. He was passable when Gilbert and Huddy were here to manage him but now… no thanks.

    4 – Hemsky for Smith – yes please, if the Oilers don’t retain. If they have to retain salary, please get a pick or something back too!

    5 – Horcoff – I don’t expect him moved. Appreciate he’s already selling/sold his home here, but… I don’t see any team trading for him. The Oilers have no reason to compliance him, no cap issues, so don’t see that as a good option either. However, I think it’s pretty clear that one of the young guns will be getting a C this fall, even if the dirty russian remains an Oiler.

    6 – Fillpula, Gordon, MacArthur & trade picks and prospects for Phaneuf. Please stay away from Coburn. Offer all the UFAs 1 year overpays to get them here, let them see it’s good times, and then try to re-sign if they work out. Don’t offer term to UFAs.

    Hall-RNH-Yakupov
    MacArthur-Fillpula-Eberle
    MP-Gordon-Gagner
    Smyth-Smith-???Horcoff???
    Brown

    Phaneuf – Petry
    Smid – J Schultz
    Belov – N Schultz
    Potter – Klefbom

  30. Bank Shot says:

    "Steve Smith":
    Think of it as the odds of rolling a 1, with two 5 sided dice and three 10 sided dice, if you prefer.

    Uh, not to state the obvious, but the chances of that aren’t 70%, they’re 1 – (.8 * .8 * .9 * .9 * .9) = 53.344%.So still better than the 25% we gave up, but not as good as you’d get just by adding up the probabilities.

    (For an easy explanation of why just adding up the probabilities, what are the odds of getting a player with eleven fourth round picks?If you add them up, you get 110%, which obviously can’t be right.The correct answer is ~61.6%.)

    Of course, those are the odds of getting at least one player.To really compare the probabilities, you’d have to consider the possibility of getting more than one player, which makes the trades look better (because they allow us that possibility, while the original pick didn’t).

    On the other hand, this doesn’t factor in the quality of player, and I think it’s probably a fair bet that the 25% of players who pay off in the third round are, on average, better than the 10% who pay off in the fourth round, though I’m not aware of any research on that point.That would, if true, make the trade a little worse.

    The other flaw with all of this is that it treats all third round picks as being equal, so that trading 61 for 90 is a lateral move, which I think we all know intuitively is wrong – the brackets we’re using are approximations.

    I still think MacT won the trades, and agree with Godot about Tulsky.

    For all intents and purposes the third rounders acquired by MacT, fall more into the 10% 4th round category then they do into the third round.

    Another thing to consider is that the quality of the average second rounder appears to be generally higher then players picked in the later rounds.
    Fancy Charts

    While a second rounder only has a 25% chance at becoming an NHL, they appear to have a 20+% chance at becoming a regular rather then a depth player. With picks 80+ they have a ~15% chance at becoming a depth player, but less then 10% chance of becoming a regular.

    I think you have a lot more Stortini types coming out of the later rounds which skews the numbers a bit when talking about finding NHL “players” late in the draft.

    I still think the Oilers would have been better served trading those picks for a real NHL player rather then buying more lottery tickets.

    Some people might think they are good bets because they took talented Russians, but Russians appear to be pretty overrated by the fans. The hit rate on Russians is pretty terrible compared to the rest of the field. Just looking back on past drafts, from 1996-2008 there were almost 50 Russians taken in the second round with 5 turning into NHLers. Just awful.

  31. Gret99zky says:

    It’s during free agent frenzy that I wish Katz and the city of Edmonton would pitch in $500M toward some sandy beaches, sunny weather, and a store that sells every kind of trophy-wife shoes.

  32. godot10 says:

    Bank Shot:
    Some people might think they are good bets because they took talentedRussians, but Russians appear to be pretty overrated by the fans. The hit rate on Russians is pretty terrible compared to the rest of the field. Just looking back on past drafts, from 1996-2008 there were almost 50 Russians taken in the second round with 5 turning into NHLers. Just awful.

    Russian society was in turmoil in the late nineties. It has stabilized since then. (Whether one likes or dislikes how it has stabilized is an entirely different question). We are also a decade further into the Russian hockey system stabilizing after all of that turmoil.

    Bull markets do not last forever. Bear markets to not last forever. The Russian market may be an undervalued market at the moment, because of the long bear market.

  33. LMHF#1 says:

    The return of Grebeshkov would be fine, but I’d much rather see the return of Gilbert. He could find his game again.

  34. LMHF#1 says:

    Gret99zky:
    It’s during free agent frenzy that I wish Katz and the city of Edmonton would pitch in $500M toward some sandy beaches, sunny weather, and a store that sells every kind of trophy-wife shoes.

    If the preview meetings with any of the players are taking place today it might work out!

    Also, our trophy wife friendliness is underestimated. They should consider hiring someone (even as a consultant) who could sell to the families of these free agents.

  35. bookje says:

    I posted this late last night, but here it is again. Breaking down drafts by ‘first round’ vs ‘second round’ is not a very effective categorization. I broke things down by categorizing around the picks actually made by MacT.

    Here is the repost.

    Ok, I ran the stats from the 2001-2010 drafts and they make it look like a pretty good move by MacT.
    I was unable to post tables/images here, so I posted it at Copper and Blue’s site. Here is a link:

    http://www.coppernblue.com/2013/7/2/4485744/another-look-at-the-mact-trades-using-past-draft-data

    The short story is that to start MacT traded a 37th for a 57th plus…

    Taking picks 36-38 (37ish) vs picks 56-58 (57ish) for the past ten years, I found the following.
    The likelihood of a 37th-ish round pick playing more than 100 games = 26.7% (falls to 20.0% for 200+games). The average Points Per Game for those players: Forwards = 0.337 Defence = 0.288.

    The likelihood of a 57th-ish round pick playing more than 100 games = 26.7% (falls to 20.0% for 200+ games). The average Points Per Game for those players: Forwards=0.337 Defence = 0.189
    In just roughly looking at the lists of players, the 37th and 57th look surprisingly close.

    Note-the minor data changes between this and the copper and blue link are due to a correction in the data that I found after the copper and blue article was complete.

  36. FastOil says:

    "Steve Smith":
    Think of it as the odds of rolling a 1, with two 5 sided dice and three 10 sided dice, if you prefer.

    Uh, not to state the obvious, but the chances of that aren’t 70%, they’re 1 – (.8 * .8 * .9 * .9 * .9) = 53.344%.So still better than the 25% we gave up, but not as good as you’d get just by adding up the probabilities.

    (For an easy explanation of why just adding up the probabilities, what are the odds of getting a player with eleven fourth round picks?If you add them up, you get 110%, which obviously can’t be right.The correct answer is ~61.6%.)

    Of course, those are the odds of getting at least one player.To really compare the probabilities, you’d have to consider the possibility of getting more than one player, which makes the trades look better (because they allow us that possibility, while the original pick didn’t).

    On the other hand, this doesn’t factor in the quality of player, and I think it’s probably a fair bet that the 25% of players who pay off in the third round are, on average, better than the 10% who pay off in the fourth round, though I’m not aware of any research on that point.That would, if true, make the trade a little worse.

    The other flaw with all of this is that it treats all third round picks as being equal, so that trading 61 for 90 is a lateral move, which I think we all know intuitively is wrong – the brackets we’re using are approximations.

    I still think MacT won the trades, and agree with Godot about Tulsky.

    Important point you made in bringing up quality. To make any stat insight (that is shown to be looking at things in the best light) useful, really it has to be used in the context of the whole.

    Looking at one small piece of info we know can mislead. A team can better mathematical chances in trading down and getting a “player”, but do you want that calibre of player, and aren’t there other means of acquiring what is likely a lower echelon type?

    It is good or better players that make teams good or better, and those players also have the most value and build the “equity” of the team.

    Please point out if I’m off base everyone, but it seems to me using lower picks to get more higher picks would result in better players in the system, and on the team. Any excess creates a lot of currency for the GM to address weak areas with no loss of quality on the team, exactly the opposite of how the Oilers have been.

    Mitigating factors would be a need for a quantity of players in the system (which may be the Oilers case right now) or a team thinking there are a lot of good players in the draft that might be off the radar of others (which is likely sketchy given it seems it’s a crap shoot in later rounds).

    Another factor would be a pool of unexploited talent and wanting to grab as many players as possible before others join in. The Wings made hay in Europe until others caught on. It seems the Oilers saw Russia in this light because teams are averse to drafting Russians. I think the Oilers are right, but it is certainly a high risk high reward scenario. A team does have a gun to it’s head with the high paying KHL so easy a backup particularly for a Russian.

    This was a bold draft strategy by MacT, he kept his word there. Going forward (unless other teams still won’t draft Russians much) I think it makes more sense to trade up as much and as high as possible and bring in fewer, higher quality players.

  37. cc says:

    My forward targets are Stalberg, MacArthur and Benoit Pouliot.

    LT always wanted Pouliot to work out but maybe he got the first name wrong. Pouliot fits the age range (26), he is big (6’3 200 lbs) his Pts/60 is 2.356, 2.077, 2.1 (the last 3 seasons) & his Corsi numbers look good. He could easily play with Gagner & Yak. Him and MacArthur would be my primary targets.

    I’d also like Ryan Malone if he were available, but I feel like he gets bought out and takes a hometown discount to play in Pittsburgh.

    Hall-RNH-Eberle
    Pouliot-Gagner-Yakupov
    MacArthur/Stalberg-?-Paajarvi

    If I could shed the Horcoff & Hemsky salary and acquire a guy like Zack Smith to center the 3rd line and sign two of Pouliot, Stalberg and MacArthur to contracts south of 6 million combined. It would give the Oilers better overall depth that can play up and down the lineup. I think that any one of Paajarvi, Pouliot & MacArthur/Stalberg could play on the 2nd line, for stretches it allows you to play the hot hand. So instead of going out to get a big fish (Horton/Clarkson/Clowe) you get better overall depth and cap flexibility.

  38. Bank Shot says:

    godot10: Russian society was in turmoil in the late nineties.It has stabilized since then.(Whether one likes or dislikes how it has stabilized is an entirely different question).We are also a decade further into the Russian hockey system stabilizing after all of that turmoil.

    Bull markets do not last forever.Bear markets to not last forever.The Russian market may be an undervalued market at the moment, because of the long bear market.

    Has the hockey system stabilized or has the system just continued to degrade?

    The media makes a lot of noise about Russians falling in the draft/ not getting drafted because of the KHL factor, but I tend to think that the amount of talent being produced just sucks. They are still pumping out the high end skill players every once in a while, but there doesn’t appear to be any depth.

    Looking at the top scorers on the better KHL teams from 12/13 makes me think there isn’t much talent to be had. Nick Backstrom was the second leading scorer on Moscow Dynamo at the end of the season and he only played 19 of a possible 50 games. Guys like Jan Bulis, and Thoresen are top scorers.

    Anisimov was the seconding leading scorer on his team playing 36 out of 50 games and he’s only a 40 point NHLer.

    If a Russian isn’t any better then a depth player there isn’t much chance he stays in North America either.

  39. russ99 says:

    Ugh, just say no on Grebeshkov or Gilbert.

    We can and will do better, not to mention that the culture change we need would be sidetracked by the return of players from our losing teams who haven’t exactly set the world on fire since they left.

  40. Truth says:

    Igor Eronko ‏@IgorEronko 31m
    Bogdan Yakimov says he’s ready to move to #Oilers in a year when his current contract expires. ‘Happy to join my friend Nail Yakupov’

    Igor Eronko ‏@IgorEronko 24m
    Yakimov also remembered 2011 U18 WJC, where he played on one line with Yakupov and Anton Slepyshev, who was his linemate at 2012 U18 WJC too

    Igor Eronko ‏@IgorEronko 14m
    Yakimov: ‘I come from #Neftekhimik (Oil Chemist in English) so #Oilers were my destiny’. Says everyone in Nizhnekamsk now cheers for Oilers

    Looks like the Oilers did their homework.

  41. Truth says:

    Also, for information:

    Igor Eronko ‏@IgorEronko 1 Jul
    Anton Slepyshev says he’s glad there’re a lot of Russians in #Oilers system. His contract with #Salavat of #KHL expires in 2015

  42. Jordan says:

    In the interest of starting terrible trade rumours online… With Horton testing free agency in Boston, they will need a winger on a scoring line. There are also rumours of Seguin being available. If that’s the case… if the Oilers eat half of hemsky’s salary this year, is there a trade to be made for Tyler?

    I mean… he’s got a ring,,, that’s important, right?

  43. Truth says:

    Jordan,

    Hemsky did play with Krejci during the lockout and had success. Obviously Hemsky alone is not near enough value. Hemsky, 2014 1st round pick, plus a D prospect would be worth it for the Oilers. Don’t know if it’s even close enough for the Bruins to bite though.

    You have to think one of Gagner or Seguin would be able to turn into the 2nd line center. Seguin has been used decreasingly as a centerman.

  44. Jordan says:

    Truth,

    I could see a package like that working for both sides, but I think the 1st is a little much, depending on the prospect and how much salary the Oilers eat. If Chiarelli wants the 1st, I’d be pretty insistent that the Oilers aren’t eating any of that salary. If that doesn’t work for Boston… I’d be pushing for a pair of seconds instead. (14 & 15)? I also think Grenat’s resume would be appealing to the Bruins, no?

  45. wordbird says:

    Trifecta?

    Bob McKenzie ‏@TSNBobMcKenzie 3m
    WSH puts Jeff Schultz on unconditional ($100) waivers for purposes of buyout.

  46. Captain Happy says:

    Jonathan Willis ‏@JonathanWillis 20m

    Really interesting. RT @JoshuaCooper: Poile said if he can’t trade Halischuk or Blum they will not get qualifying offers

  47. LMHF#1 says:

    All kinds of waiver activity today. I remember when a bunch of people were obsessed with Zanon. Glad that never came to pass.

  48. Captain Happy says:

    Renaud Lavoie @RenLavoieRDS

    Waivers: DiPietro, Rick (NYIbuyout) Russell, Kris (STL) Schultz, Jeff (WSHbuyout) Hunwick, Matt (COL) Zanon, Greg (COL) Gill, Hal (NSH)

  49. cc says:

    Kris Russell, Hal Gill, Greg Zanon, Matt Hunwick placed on waivers.

    Hunwick, he’s only 28 years-old played the most EV/60 and was +4 on a team that was overall -36 in goal differential (2nd worst in the league) and his cap hit is only 1.6.

    Very interesting.

  50. Shau-co says:

    I would rather see Edmonton give Jeff Schultz a shot on our 3rd pairing for free than trade for Coburn…. Having 3 Schultz’s on our backend would be a little ridonkulous but hey he seems like a good chance for a shutdown defender to me.

  51. justDOit says:

    cc:
    Kris Russell, Hal Gill, Greg Zanon, Matt Hunwick placed on waivers.

    Hunwick, he’s only 28 years-old played the most EV/60 and was +4 on a team that was overall -36 in goal differential (2nd worst in the league) and his cap hit is only 1.6.

    Very interesting.

    Well we know what Sakic thinks of the player – I wonder what StevieY says?

  52. DBO says:

    I like Kris Russell. Solid, 26, has offense. Coming off $1.3 mill contract. Is an RFA. Free upgrade. Makes sense. LH. I would like us to get him, especially if we move out Shultz. Looks like 3rd pairing for PK, small bit of PP.

    Hunwick played top EV minutes for Avs. only $1.6. Got some offense. Not too big or physical, but he plays both PP and PK. He would be a solid one as well.

  53. TheOtherJohn says:

    Hate to an an additional factor to the empirical equation that everyone is currently working on but think the actual record of the Oilers scouting staff should be factored into equation. It may very well be that the a 7 round pick has a 4% chance of playing 150 games in the show. Except if the Oiler scouting staff has never had a 7th round pick make it, its no longer 4%. Similarly if Detroit get 1 7th pick in 10 years they have a 10% chance of sucess which when added to our zero, averages 5%

    Realize it makes for a much harder analysis but we don’t have the average scouting staff making our amateur draft picks, we have the Oilers scouting staff.

    Fortunately the Oilers did not make any changes to their amateur scouting staff so that we have nearly a decade of continuity with many if not most of the scouting department

    When adding our amateur scouting record over the last 10 year to the analysis do the same percentages play out?

    Wouldn’t our actual record be a better analysis tool?

  54. speeds says:

    godot10,

    "Steve Smith",

    I think you need to combine the market worth with the intrinsic worth. Even if the picks are intrinsically worth more than the market generally dictatates, it is still sensible to try to pay as close to the market rate as possible.

    Just because you value a player at 3 mil/year in free agency, it doesn’t mean you should pay him that if you can get him for 1.5 mil

  55. cc says:

    Jordan,

    I think that we are over-valuing our players and undervaluing the market price for other teams players. Seguin 6’1, 2nd overall, RHS center that’s 21 years-old – .67 Pts/G last year & .83 Pts/G in 11-12. He is easily worth a 1st round pick. Hell I think in order to pry him outta Boston you are talking about Eberle (which won’t work because of the Bruins cap issues), Yakupov or at the very least Sam Gagner+.

    I mean, would you consider trading Eberle for two 2nd’s & Peverley?

    I think Hemsky could be a fit in Boston, with their RW’s moving out. I’m not sure who would be involved from the Bruins but Seguin for Hemsky doesn’t make sense for the Bruins. Peverley is a guy that makes sense for the Oilers, but I’m not sure if that’s enough for the Oiler who would probably have to take on I’d say 20% of Hemsky’s salary.

  56. godot10 says:

    speeds:
    godot10,

    “Steve Smith”,

    I think you need to combine the market worth with the intrinsic worth.Even if the picks are intrinsically worth more than the market generally dictatates, it is still sensible to try to pay as close to the market rate as possible.

    Just because you value a player at 3 mil/year in free agency, it doesn’t mean you should pay him that if you can get him for 1.5 mil

    I believe that Bookje;s’ and Spoilers analysis showed that MacT bought somewhere over 0.5 worth of a hockey players for the price of .25 worth of a hockey player.

    i.e. MacT took advantage of a mispricing in the marketplace. i.e. He can overpay the so-called market and still obtain very good value in terms of probability in finding a hockey player.

    What Tulsky showed is that the market pricing of trading down doesn’t reflect the hockey value of trading down.

  57. Woodguy says:

    Truth:
    Also, for information:

    Igor Eronko ‏@IgorEronko 1 Jul
    Anton Slepyshev says he’s glad there’re a lot of Russians in #Oilers system. His contract with #Salavat of #KHL expires in 2015

    If Slepyshev’s nickname isn’t “Slappy” when he comes over here, then there’s something wrong with all of us.

  58. Kert says:

    TheOtherJohn: Except if the Oiler scouting staff has never had a 7th round pick make it, its no longer 4%

    I disagree, if I flip a coin 3 times and get tails every time, that doesn’t mean I have a 0% chance of flipping heads next time.
    Kyle Brodziak has very little to do with how Greg Chase will develop.

  59. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Woodguy: If Slepyshev’s nickname isn’t “Slappy” when he comes over here, then there’s something wrong with all of us.

    Sleepy?

  60. fifthcartel says:

    Hoping to hear Peckham, Plante, and Teubert have not been qualified.

  61. Woodguy says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: Sleepy?

    Slappy dammit!

  62. speeds says:

    godot10,

    I agree with all of that, if that’s the best offer they could have received and they were set on trading down, as long as it’s better value than you think the 37 is on its own I guess you take it. I think I would have just picked Petan at 37, and considered trading down from 56.

  63. Cobbler says:

    Kert,

    Agreed. Outcomes of individuals are independent of one another.

    Also the argument needs to be framed properly when discussing prospect odds. What is successful? A hockey career? 200 NHL games? The coin toss analogy only works if there is a defined positive/negative outcome. There are no other outcomes with a coin toss. With hockey prospects there is a range of outcomes depending on the desired result. That is what makes prospect outcomes difficult to quantify.

  64. LostBoy says:

    Horton is the closest thing to a perfect match that’s out there, but it’s hard to see a reason (other than our ability to potentially overpay) that he’d want to sign with Edmonton.

    Clarkson would bring just about everything that’s been mentioned as a must-add to the top six. But, and it’s a big but, he takes PF streakiness to an extreme. He started on an absurd roll last year, with 16 points in his first 14 games. After that, he managed 8 points in 34 games. 8. Still, he brings so much else that he’d be an awesome addition.

    Stalberg, meh. Like I’ve said before, if you want him for a top six role to maybe pot 20, we already have a 6’3″ 208 lb blazingly fast Swedish winger who scored the same number of goals as Stalberg last season in fewer games. (The comparison is almost eerie, as they each averaged 14.07 in icetime/game.) I know Paajarvi was part of a troubled line with Gagner, but he can do everything Stalberg can and has a higher ceiling. Still, in an appropriate 3R role playing up the lineup as necessary, and if he could be signed for something sensible ($2.5m or less), Stalberg would be an excellent depth add. He brings almost nothing that’s said to be required for the top six winger job opening, though. If it comes to that, give MPS the job.

  65. Cobbler says:

    The more I think about it, the more I like the result of trading down twice. They still got a guy in the second and picking up Yakimov and Slepyshev, guys who will play in the KHL next year with world junior pedigree and are known to Yak (the first) make trading down a solid bet beyond the pure odds in later rounds. I think they got some quality and sleepers in the mid to late rounds.

    It is very difficult to quantify “we both played on a line with Yakupov”. I like to view this as a strongly positive outcome of the draft. Thes guys sound excited to come over and play in Edmonton. That is excellent.

    Nurse will be huge for the Oil and if that is all they get then it has been a success.

  66. DBO says:

    Add Hunwick for free and Coburn and Holmgren can pound sand. I like Coburn, but once again all about value. You get a top pairing dman who played most minutes for a dman in Colorado last year with experience, enough offense and is no pushover. He is a true top 4, and he costs us nothing. Hope they put in a claim.

    And go get MacArthur. Seems like best two way fit for 2/3 LW, and doubt he costs much. Add Gordon to the list, trade Hemsky for Smith, and then we have serious cap space. you can then overpay for a Clowe or a Clarkson. Not sure they are worth it, but at least you have the option if no trade can happen.

  67. TheOtherJohn says:

    Kert: I disagree, if I flip a coin 3 times and get tails every time, that doesn’t mean I have a 0% chance of flipping heads next time.
    Kyle Brodziak has very little to do with how Greg Chase will develop.

    Are you serious?

    if your argument is right, we do not need scouts outside of the 2nd round because the coin flip will deliver us prospects at whatever the “average” percentage is.

    Put another way in most trials one side wins and one side loses. That is 50/50 and quality is irrelevant. Or you can hire the best quality lawyer with the best record and win 65% of the time

  68. dawgtoy says:

    DBO,

    I completely agree! In regards to MacArthur this article is excellent. http://theleafsnation.com/2013/5/17/why-clarke-macarthur-shouldnt-have-played-his-last-game-as-a-leaf

  69. Нинтендо⁶⁴ says:

    A few thoughts about the weekend.

    With the new playoff format trades in conference might be easier to make but trades within division are going to be even more brutal. Would have been shocked if MacT had jumped on that screw yourself offer.

    Avs called the market right last week: 3 forwards ahead of Jones. Not surprised that Lindholm and Monahan made up the cohort ahead of Nurse and the Finn.

    The Oilers probably expect to have to chose between the 2 defenders and the Russian. With their love of Oil Kings and all things 80s I’d guess they were thinking a lot of Reinhart and Vish when they had the shot at Nurse.

    When you go with your draft list and trade down to pick up a bunch of guys you like you might not be as smart as you think. But within limits you’ve got to go with what you see. The abstract problem of trading down looks a bit different when your primary targets for that pick are gone.

  70. denny33 says:

    TheOtherJohn,

    Exactly – the Edmonton Oilers staff we are talking about…..

    In a deep draft such as 2013 – one suspects we will be looking back in five years at the players taken in the 2nd round and wondering why we traded out of the 2013 2nd round.

    Of note for me, Curtis Lazar was taken nowhere near #7.

    Like the Jets pick in the 2nd round…..you never know.

  71. Shau-co says:

    DBO,

    I agree with DBO on this almost 100%. I’m not sold on Coburn and would love to see MacCarthur, Gordon and Hunwick added.

    I would prefer a Hemsky for Peverly deal over Zack Smith if it is possible though.

  72. DBO says:

    Shau-co,

    I would prefer Peverley as well, but no way Boston takes Hemsky’s salary. We may still be able to get Peverley (been pumping his tires since last week) for a prospect of Boston needs to clear cap. They are still tight, even with Horton walking away.

    Hunwick, Gordon, MaccArthur, Peverley and SMith. That is a hell of a haul with value all over. Which is why it is not gonna happen, but we can dream.

  73. jb says:

    Can someone link to where it’s stated as fact that Hemsky and Horcoff are being dealt? I feel like there’s about 5 fans that like what Hemsky brings and haven’t yet turned on him.

    Hemsky for Smith or Peverly? no thanks.

    Horcoffs been paid… Why not try sign the guy to 3rd/4th line money when that contract expires.

  74. DBO says:

    jb,

    Hemsky has almost zero value right now. $5 mill for an inconsistent and injury prone player when most teams are shedding salary. If we get any NHL player for him we should be happy.

    And Horc wants out. He sold his house, he wants gone.

  75. Woodguy says:

    dawgtoy:
    DBO,

    I completely agree! In regards to MacArthur this article is excellent. http://theleafsnation.com/2013/5/17/why-clarke-macarthur-shouldnt-have-played-his-last-game-as-a-leaf

    I much prefer MaCarthur over Clarkson.

    Clarkson pts game career: .399
    MaCarthur .529

    Clarkson also had “easier” match ups than MaCarthur over career.

    Clarkson way over rated, and MaCarthur way under rated.

  76. Jordan says:

    Development Camp roster released:

    http://oilers.nhl.com/club/news.htm?id=676092&navid=DL|EDM|home

    Man do I wish I had this week off.

  77. russ99 says:

    jb,

    Cause we have to pay him $7M over the next two years to be a declining third line center and ineffective captain.

    If Horc was getting paid $2M a year and wasn’t captain (stripping captaincy is something no player wants) he could be an adequate 3rd to 4th line center.

    Would rather see the Oilers cut bait and go for younger players with upside via FA. If it takes a buyout, so be it.

  78. Ribs says:

    jb:
    Can someone link to where it’s stated as fact that Hemsky and Horcoff are being dealt? I feel like there’s about 5 fans that like what Hemsky brings and haven’t yet turned on him.

    Hemsky for Smith or Peverly? no thanks.

    Horcoffs been paid… Why not try sign the guy to 3rd/4th line money when that contract expires.

    “I think both those players are at a similar crossroads,” MacTavish told the radio station.

    “Sometimes change is good for both the organization and the player, but at the same time they’re valuable players and we’re not in a position where we’re able to move them without getting something substantial in return…I have a lot of allegiance and a lot of loyalty to ‘Horc’ and to Ales. I have a lot of respect for both those players. But from both those perspectives, I think the ideal scenario would be to move them on and wish them the best in their next destination.”

    Hemsky, 29, was in his 10th season with the Oilers and has one year left on a two-year, $10 million contract he signed last summer.

    In 38 games this season, he scored nine goals and added 11 assists. He has 17 points in 30 career playoff games with the Oilers and helped Edmonton reach the Stanley Cup Final in 2005-06.

    Horcoff, 34, scored seven goals and 12 points in 31 games this season and will make $5.5 million a year through the 2014-15 season.

    “Would we welcome those players back if the right circumstance presented itself? Absolutely,” added MacTavish. “But I think in talking to both those players, I think the best situation would be to move on.”

    http://www.tsn.ca/nhl/story/?id=424887

  79. DBO says:

    Woodguy,

    Agree 100%. All about value. Clarkson wants $6 mill per. You can get MacArthur for around $3 mill or less. Same issue with Coburn (who I have wanted for awhile). Humwick at almost $3 mill less per year is better value and brings almost the same thing (except he’s smaller). I really hope we see a claim on Hunwick first and Russell 2nd. Hell, get both. Depth at the NHL level is a good thing. And it gives us options to move Shultz Sr. if needed.

  80. misfit says:

    I think the one flaw in that logic, DBO, is the notion that you can get MacArthur for <$3M. He made $3.25M last year and is a UFA.

  81. Jordan says:

    I think these are the names of the players who are not currently Oilers property.

    F
    Reid Petryk – Medicine Hat Tigers/Everett Silvertips – 20 yrs – http://www.eliteprospects.com/player.php?player=45509
    Jacob Doty – Medicine Hat Tigers – 20 yrs – http://www.eliteprospects.com/player.php?player=45623
    Marco Roy – Windsor Papetiers (no other info) – http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=49091
    Nick MacNeil – Uni. New Brunswick (6’4″, ppg, 24 yrs) – http://www.eliteprospects.com/player.php?player=32888
    Bryce Van Brabant – Quinnipac (6’3, 0.3 ppg, 21 yrs) – http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=123961

    D
    Joey Leach – Kootenay Ice (6’2″ – 0.5 ppg; OKC property for 13-14) http://www.eliteprospects.com/player.php?player=37152
    Kenny Morrison (6’2″, 0.5 ppg Western Michigan U) – http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=132107
    Ben Lindemulder – U of A (5’10, 0.6 ppg, 25 yrs)) – http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=94458
    Jake Baker – Northern Michigan Uni (6’5″ <0.1 ppg, 21 yrs)

    G
    Franky Palazzese – Sudsbury/Kitchener – good numbers in Kitchener, bad in Sudsbury – http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=123855
    Troy Trombley – Melville Millionaires/Tri-City Americans – Okay numbers – http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=133713

    Very interesting invites

  82. gcw_rocks says:

    In order, I would like to see the Oilers pursue the following free agents from our list:

    - MacArthur
    - Gordon
    - Khudobin
    - Stalberg

  83. TheOtherJohn says:

    gcw_rocks:
    In order, I would like to see the Oilers pursue the following free agents from our list:

    - MacArthur
    - Gordon
    - Khudobin
    - Stalberg

    Like list would put Gordon first….same listing therafter

  84. Gerta Rauss says:

    Apparently Nashville is looking to move Blum-Willis has a piece up at ON and he mentions that Nash won’t qualify him if they can’t find a trade partner.It’s too bad-I like the player but I’m not certain he’s a fit now based on what we are looking for.

  85. Numenius says:

    I’m really liking the MacArthur idea. Looks like great value for what we need.

  86. Ice Sage says:

    Woodguy: Slappy dammit!

    Slappy and the Yaks?

    Sounds like a jug band

  87. godot10 says:

    Jordan,

    OKC signed Joey Leach.

  88. cc says:

    misfit:
    I think the one flaw in that logic, DBO, is the notion that you can get MacArthur for <$3M.He made $3.25M last year and is a UFA.

    This is a good point, MacArthur is going to get north of 3 million. I had him penciled in around 3 – 3.5, but based on similar players (.50+ PPG & 32 and under ) he should make at least 3.5 million.

    In 2010 – Matt Cullen $3.5 million per/3 years
    In 2011 – Michael Ryder got 3.5 cap hit for 2 years.
    In 2012 – David Jones & Jiri Hudler got 4 million cap hit / 4 years.

    My guess is he will get in the 3.5 – 3.75 range for 3 years, but could possibly bump up to 4 million, if someone overvalues MacArthur. I would be alright offering MacArthur 11 million for 3 years (3.666 cap hit). If they can get rid of Hemsky it’s a deal that makes sense.

  89. FastOil says:

    TheOtherJohn: Are you serious?

    if your argument is right, we do not need scouts outside of the 2nd round because the coin flip will deliver us prospects at whatever the “average” percentage is.

    Put another way in most trials one side wins and one side loses. That is 50/50 and quality is irrelevant. Or you can hire the best quality lawyer with the best record and win 65% of the time

    I like this analogy. I don’t see the point in drafting players with extremely low chance of being impact players. Non impact players are available outside of the draft. 3rd round and up have a significantly better chance of being impact players.

    Time is also an issue. Opportunities to win are limited and extended over a long period. The best years of your core’s productive years are very finite. Many great role players are top end draft picks that couldn’t score at the NHL level and reset their game. 7th round players make the NHL, but how many are any threat to score which MacT wants (and I think he’s right about that)?

    An untapped talent pool is an exception but they don’t last long. Or a very thin system (perhaps the Oilers). Outside of those circumstances, the only logic I can see taking everything in context is to maximize the chance at quality, which is best done by obtaining more high picks. Obtain them when trading and sell 4th and down for what you can get in the 3rd round up. And develop them well.

  90. Rondo says:

    Oilers should look at these smallish D-men

    Matt Hunwick or Jared Spurgeon

  91. OilLeak says:

    Woodguy: If Slepyshev’s nickname isn’t “Slappy” when he comes over here, then there’s something wrong with all of us.

    Catering to the Russian player market, could be an interesting way of obtaining quality players inexpensively.

  92. striatic says:

    Woodguy: If Slepyshev’s nickname isn’t “Slappy” when he comes over here, then there’s something wrong with all of us.

    Slappy it is then!

  93. dawgtoy says:

    Woodguy,

    Clarkson will get way overpaid (Malone), but MacArthur likely gets a marginal increase at best. For the value, he should be a primary target for the Oil on July 5. They can speak to them earlier this year right? 48 hours prior to the July 5. He’d be my first call. I doubt Tammy Horton wants to live in Edmonton.

  94. russ99 says:

    Jordan:
    Marco Roy – Windsor Papetiers (no other info) – http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=49091

    2nd round pick Marc-Olivier Roy’s nickname is “Marco”, and he prefers that to the long spelling. :)
    http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=130509

  95. fifthcartel says:

    That’s a fake LeBrun twitter by the way, guys.

  96. oilswell says:

    speeds:
    godot10,
    I agree with all of that, if that’s the best offer they could have received and they were set on trading down, as long as it’s better value than you think the 37 is on its own I guess you take it.I think I would have just picked Petan at 37, and considered trading down from 56.

    Its conceivable that they weren’t thrilled about Petan and that they factored that into their thinking.

    The Tulsky and Bookje articles are interesting and good as they go, but limited. I find it useful to try to distinguish, as best one can, value from strategy from the mechanics of horse trading.

    Value. In terms of value, a long time ago I took a look at that and expressed pick value in terms of expected player value, which combines both the likelihood that the player picked plays and that the player is good. The method I used was a trifling extension to the draft and pick strength evaluation tools developed by Dawson and McGee. Bookje’s article works some ways towards that and I’m pleased to note that it comports with my long-ago findings that late round picks are: more-or-less random, often better than earlier round players if they make it. From a strictly value point of view, I can very well believe that their trades down netted them higher expected value.

    Strategy Is trading down a good idea here? Partly its a question of circumstance. If you trade down for more picks you have to house them somewhere, but if they pick euros and college players and are hell-bent on trading existing prospects and future picks, then this is a good year to make the trade down. On the draft floor they’d have to have had a long list of picks they thought well-enough of and thought would be there, and not been particularly more thrilled with what was before them. This is not an unreasonable thought, I believe. Another strategy question is also knowing where the market gives you value. This is a Moneyball key idea, I believe (I have never read it): if the market over-values something you take advantage of it. In this case, the market inefficiency in question is whether trading up to the 2nd round is over-valued by other teams and trading down not valued enough by competitors. At least two sources of argument can be brought to bear on this point just from Tulsky and Bookje.

    (1) It could be noted that Tulsky’s article merely shows that, historically, teams over-value trading up to get a player they like in the 2nd round, and are willing to give up more expected value than they rightly should. If so, his article supports MacTavish’s/MacGregor’s strategy. Specifically, if teams covet their picks in the 37th range too much, history will simply show that the deals made in the past uniformly over-value those picks. And lo and behold, if the value argument is valid, then Tulsky’s article shows precisely what you would predict if the market is consistent in over-valuing the picks in that range. In years past, teams might simply have rejected the trade proposal to trade down for that package, and such a “weak” return would never have been recorded to weigh against. And it might have been just the poor decisions in the past to reject trades down with the value the Oilers were offered.

    (2) Bookje’ data seems to suggest that in the 30-50 range the players that make it may actually be poorer scorers than the players taken later. IIRC my prior study showed something very similar. This adds a second argument to suggest that picks in this range are over-valued. The data is what it is but, actually, I can think of a plausible explanation for this to be generally true: this pick range generally exhausts the NHL’s ability to accurately pick out talent and is a transition between well-ordered picking (higher talent generally before lower talent) to near-random picking. In this transition range one might expect to find plenty of picks that are relatively “safe” compared to later picks. “Safe” because the drafting team knows alot more about the player, and “safe” also connoting that belief that the player is likely to make the show even if it is just as a bottom-of-the-roster player. If this latter supposition is true then we might expect to see a transition grouping of higher numbers of players that don’t bring as much offense but have qualities that would otherwise make them a high likelihood to make it to the NHL. This would leave the last part of the draft to be filled with presently-flawed players and (significantly) players that nobody knows much about. They could be relative unknowns because of playing in an obscure place (Latvia, say, or AJHL), or because they are in a situation where they are stuck behind other players (on the London Knights, say) and aren’t getting the playing opportunity to reveal a strong picture of their future selves. By the way, an interesting note about Bookje’s numbers: early coke machines are often found in that over-valued transition area where pick value is perhaps surprisingly low.

    Horse Trading. Clearly the Oilers could only make deals with a partner willing to make deals, and would have to compete against other nearby picking teams. It required a team wanting to make the deal, and then they only have certain pick positions to give away. It’s not like you can ask them to change their 101st pick to a 95th pick because you want a little sweeter deal. If the deal makes you better and there is no better one, you don’t reject it because there were better deals offered in the past by other teams.

  97. cabbiesmacker says:

    Who cares about hockey?

    Stella Stevens had nice schmeebs

  98. OilLeak says:

    cc:
    My forward targets are Stalberg, MacArthur and Benoit Pouliot.

    LT always wanted Pouliot to work out but maybe he got the first name wrong. Pouliot fits the age range (26), he is big (6’3 200 lbs) his Pts/60 is 2.356, 2.077, 2.1(the last 3 seasons) & his Corsi numbers look good.He could easily play with Gagner & Yak.Him and MacArthur would be my primary targets.

    I’d also like Ryan Malone if he were available, but I feel like he gets bought out and takes a hometown discount to play in Pittsburgh.

    Hall-RNH-Eberle
    Pouliot-Gagner-Yakupov
    MacArthur/Stalberg-?-Paajarvi

    If I could shed the Horcoff & Hemsky salary and acquire a guy like Zack Smith to center the 3rd line and sign two of Pouliot, Stalberg and MacArthur to contracts south of 6 million combined.It would give the Oilers better overall depth that can play up and down the lineup.I think that any one of Paajarvi, Pouliot & MacArthur/Stalberg could play on the 2nd line, for stretches it allows you to play the hot hand.So instead of going out to get a big fish (Horton/Clarkson/Clowe) you get better overall depth and cap flexibility.

    I’d take a flyer on Pouliot and Macarthur, both have/had played tougher comp over the past 2 seasons. I think the Oilers should be targeting depth players that have shown the ability to thrive in a tough min role, Oilers have enough kids and young players to feed the soft minutes to. A pass on Stalberg for me.

  99. Shleppy and the Yaks says:

    Shleppy and the Yaks. Sung to the tune Bennie and the Jets.

    Shleppy , Shleppy ,Shleppy , Shleppy and the Yaaaaks.

    I realize that we need to make improvements, but this type of thing is not typically a cut and paste process where you can just air drop eight new guys into a lineup and hope for the best. Typically you’re adding one or two players and even then you’re waiting half a season or longer for them to adjust to their new environment and new line mates. You then reassess the changes you made, evaluate the outcomes and then move on to more changes or not…..So is the plan really to write off 2013/2014 in an attempt to re-invent the character of the team? Not that there’s anything wrong with that. But expectations should be moderated accordingly.

    Also,

  100. FastOil says:

    Shleppy and the Yaks:
    Shleppy and the Yaks. Sung to the tune Bennie and the Jets.

    Shleppy , Shleppy ,Shleppy , Shleppyand the Yaaaaks.

    I realize that we need to make improvements, but this type of thing is not typically a cut and paste process where you can just air drop eight new guys into a lineup and hope for the best. Typically you’re adding one or two players and even then you’re waiting half a season or longer for them to adjust to their new environment and new line mates. You then reassess the changes you made, evaluate the outcomes and then move on to more changes or not…..So is the plan really to write off 2013/2014 in an attempt to re-invent the character of the team? Not that there’s anything wrong with that. But expectations should be moderated accordingly.

    Also,

    Someone might remember the piece that referred to “chemistry” on one of the Oiler blogs – I don’t recall where it was.

    Basically “chemistry” really was good players play well with other good players. It isn’t as much about guys being better with a certain player because of some special connection (Sedins aside) but talent level. Often you have to break players up because they can become predictable or get in a rut.

    If you parachute 8 better players in, the team will play better. Good players are held back carrying lesser players, like Pajaarvi carrying Gagner ;). There might be an adjustment period, but seasonally, improving the roster right now makes a better result.

    Plus they don’t have forever to fix this before they start having issues with the core, be it peaking and starting down the other side or wanting out because it’s going nowhere fast, whatever. The Young Guns are young, but really like watching your kids grow up and being surprised constantly at how old they are getting, some of them are going into or close to starting what typically are their peak offensive years now. Hall will be 22, Eberle 23, Gagner 24.

    Find better players, get them playing, repeat.

  101. dessert1111 says:

    Oilers retain these RFAs:

    Taylor Fedun
    Teemu Hartikainen
    Niko Hovinen
    Antti Tyrvainen
    Sam Gagner
    Magnus Paajarvi

  102. Marc says:

    General Manager Craig MacTavish announced today the Edmonton Oilers have issued qualifying offers to the following players:

    Taylor Fedun
    Teemu Hartikainen
    Niko Hovinen
    Antti Tyrvainen
    Sam Gagner
    Magnus Paajarvi

  103. dessert1111 says:

    Not surprised they didn’t keep Teubert, Peckham, Plante and Cornet…VERY surprised they kept Hovinen. Somewhat surprised they kept Tyrvainen — I think he has potential as a mean energy player, but I’m surprised they value him more than a guy like Teubert or Peckham.

  104. remlap says:

    Someone explain to me the Hartikainen thing.. He went to the KHL.. Why would we qualify him?

  105. dessert1111 says:

    Hartikainen is retained so Oilers still have his NHL rights. Just like they retained Omark even though he went overseas. He can come back to the NHL once his contract is done.

  106. RMGS says:

    It looks like MacT’s starting the overhaul by flushing failed prospects. No idea why he’d keep the rights to Hovinen and Tyrvainen, though.

  107. remlap says:

    dessert1111,

    That’s the assumption I came to. Just wanted to make sure I wasn’t out to lunch.

  108. RMGS says:

    Also, I’m hoping Gagner’s close to signing, because otherwise it’s in his best interest (and consequently not the Oilers’) to take the qualifying offer and go UFA next year.

  109. Young Oil says:

    Too bad we couldn’t get a pick for any of the players not qualified, or add them to a part of a package, but I love this move, because now the OKC defense will look something like:

    Marincin-Gernat
    Klefbom-Fedun
    Musil-Davidson

    Letting the kids play. I love it. Gets them all a lot of ice time and experience.

  110. Lois Lowe says:

    Young Oil,

    That D corps is a little green for my liking. You won’t win with 3 rookies and 3 sophomore D men in any professional league.

  111. LostBoy says:

    RMGS:
    Also, I’m hoping Gagner’s close to signing, because otherwise it’s in his best interest (and consequently not the Oilers’) to take the qualifying offer and go UFA next year.

    It’s not really time-sensitive. He’s had that option from the outset and if it isn’t done by July 05 he’ll file. But they can keep negotiating a long term deal right up until the arbitration hearing. Last summer he filed and they settled on the one year deal minutes before the hearing. The somewhat exposed part is that starting now up until he either signs or files, he’s fair game for an offer sheet.

  112. BlacqueJacque says:

    Anyone else disappointed we didn’t try for Galiardi?

  113. FastOil says:

    Young Oil:
    Too bad we couldn’t get a pick for any of the players not qualified, or add them to a part of a package, but I love this move, because now the OKC defense will look something like:

    Marincin-Gernat
    Klefbom-Fedun
    Musil-Davidson

    Letting the kids play. I love it. Gets them all a lot of ice time and experience.

    Green but a player at each position. At bats are more important to me than OKC winning more than enough to stay afloat given there is no dead weight there. A fair amount of offense too if the Bomb can contribute a bit.

  114. commonfan14 says:

    So 6 years later, do we officially have nothing left from the Smyth return?

  115. Marc says:

    BlacqueJacque:
    Anyone else disappointed we didn’t try for Galiardi?

    Yes, but mainly because the Oilers haven’t had a Dartmouth man since Scott Fraser.

    Calgary has 3 now.

  116. Young Oil says:

    Lois Lowe,

    I agree with that to some extent, but Marincin and Fedun were two of the best defencemen on OKC last year, I believe they were the top pairing near the end of the season (correct me if I’m wrong). Davidson was in the bottom pair last year, so that’s not changed. Musil is likely equivalent, or even better than Plante, and Klefbom will likely be an upgrade over Tuebert. The D corps last year made it to the conference final, with 3 rookies. I would call that success.

    Also, if Nelson is still the head coach of OKC next year, he will likely help the new rookies just as much as he helped Davidson, Marincin and Fedun, and getting the rookies as much icetime as possible is never a bad thing.

    I would start the season with those 6, and if they are showing difficulty, it is easy to bring in a couple of AHL vets, similar to Stafford last year.

  117. Gerta Rauss says:

    No big surprises with the QOs.

    Teubert and Peckham will get contract offers from other clubs-it was the end of the line with our org but I can see other teams finding interest in both those players.

  118. dessert1111 says:

    OKC also has Joey Leach and Nathan Deck under contract on 2-way deals. I am nearly positive they’ll add at 1 vet, and there is a chance that Potter will be sent down even though he’s on a one-way.

    Green d-corps? Absolutely. But there is a lot of talent here and a lot of NHL potential. They will make mistakes but they will get big minutes, which is excellent for their development. As an Oiler fan I am very excited about the OKC blue next year. All of these guys have legit NHL chances. Even the two guys on AHL-only deals look like good players.

  119. Marc says:

    oilswell:
    Bookje’ data seems to suggest that in the 30-50 range the players that make it may actually be poorer scorers than the players taken later.IIRC my prior study showed something very similar.This adds a second argument to suggest that picks in this range are over-valued.The data is what it is but, actually, I can think of a plausible explanation for this to be generally true:this pick range generally exhausts the NHL’s ability to accurately pick out talent and is a transition between well-ordered picking (higher talent generally before lower talent) to near-random picking.In this transition range one might expect to find plenty of picks that are relatively “safe” compared to later picks.“Safe” because the drafting team knows alot more about the player, and “safe” also connoting that belief that the player is likely to make the show even if it is just as a bottom-of-the-roster player.

    This is a really interesting point.

    It’s clear that many fans’ expectations of the return from second round picks greatly exceeds the return that history tells us we should expect. For example, history tells us that we should expect around 2 of Stu’s 6 second round picks prior to this draft to play 200+ games and the rest to bust. We seem to be on track for that, with Lander looking like a 4th line grinder and Marincin potentially a top 4 D. The rest could still make it, but you probably wouldn’t put a great deal of money on it at this stage. If even one more of PItlick, Musil, Hamilton or Moroz makes it, it would represent an outstanding return from those 6 picks.

    Yet how many time have we seen commenters on here cite the fact that Lander in ‘only’ tracking to be a 4th line, or the fact that PItlick, Musil, Hamilton or Moroz don’t look like stars as evidence that Stu is bad at drafting?

    The interesting thing about Eric T’s analysis is that it suggests that GMs harbour the same misconception about the likely return (and therefore the value) of their second round picks that many fans do.

  120. Undisclosed_Personal_Reasons says:

    commonfan14,

    Just warm memories of the Kid Line.

  121. commonfan14 says:

    Undisclosed_Personal_Reasons: commonfan14, Just warm memories of the Kid Line.

    I guess it’s also true that dealing Smyth meant dropping to Gagner range in the draft – you could almost count him as part of the return.

    Funny, but I just checked to see who we would have gotten if we hadn’t traded Smyth and ended up drafting in our normal #15 spot… Alex Plante.

  122. Woodguy says:

    Ice Sage: Slappy and the Yaks?

    Sounds like a jug band

    Love it.

  123. Woodguy says:

    Marc:
    General Manager Craig MacTavish announced today the Edmonton Oilers have issued qualifying offers to the following players:

    Taylor Fedun Teemu Hartikainen Niko Hovinen Antti Tyrvainen Sam Gagner Magnus Paajarvi

    So Linus is now free?

  124. jb says:

    Ribs,

    Thanks.

    At least he made it clear they’re both valuable roster players, and not just throw-a ways like some might suggest. Seems like he was gonna talk it out with each player, tell em what the Oilers wanted, and see if they still want the same.

    I’m fine with Horcoff leaving, but not until we have a better replacement or two up the middle.

    Hemsky you keep, he’ll worry about his next contract.

  125. wheatnoil says:

    Woodguy: So Linus is now free?

    Omark was qualified last year and has not signed an NHL contract since. He doesn’t need to be qualified because technically that contract negotiation is still ongoing. There’s nothing to qualify this year.

  126. RexLibris says:

    Woodguy: So Linus is now free?

    That would seem to imply the he is.

    I guess we’ll find out just how much or little market there is for him.

    Strongly suspect he is pursued now because he is free, once the major free-agent players are off the market.

  127. Woodguy says:

    dawgtoy:
    Woodguy,

    Clarkson will get way overpaid (Malone), but MacArthur likely gets a marginal increase at best. For the value, he should be a primary target for the Oil on July 5. They can speak to them earlier this year right? 48 hours prior to the July 5. He’d be my first call. I doubt Tammy Horton wants to live in Edmonton.

    dawgtoy:
    Woodguy,

    Clarkson will get way overpaid (Malone), but MacArthur likely gets a marginal increase at best. For the value, he should be a primary target for the Oil on July 5. They can speak to them earlier this year right? 48 hours prior to the July 5. He’d be my first call. I doubt Tammy Horton wants to live in Edmonton.

    Don’t forget that MacArthur is from Lloydminster.

    Doesn’t hurt.

  128. LostBoy says:

    wheatnoil: Omark was qualified last year and has not signed an NHL contract since. He doesn’t need to be qualified because technically that contract negotiation is still ongoing. There’s nothing to qualify this year.

    Right. Having not signed his qualifying offer last year, he’s on our Reserve List, and doesn’t have to be qualified this year.

  129. Woodguy says:

    wheatnoil: Omark was qualified last year and has not signed an NHL contract since. He doesn’t need to be qualified because technically that contract negotiation is still ongoing. There’s nothing to qualify this year.

    Thanks.

    Gregor gave the same answer, so I’m going with it.

  130. HeavySig says:

    Jordan,

    Thanks for this. Will look at more later, but I couldn’t resist checking out a former Melville Millionaire; Troy Tremblay. Oilers like their goaltenders tall, don’t they?

    6’7″ – even taller that Dubnyk, maybe a late bloomer…Coordination just catching up with his growth? His hockey db doesn’t go deep, so likely was playing midget not too long ago. Posted respectable if not spectacular save % behind Eric Comrie in Tri-City.

    Should be easy to spot at the camp, even without a program, eh?

  131. Marc says:

    Dreger was told by a Flyers source that they got Lecavalier. He’s trying to confirm.

    Gotta figure that Holmgren will get a bit more flexible on Coburn now.

  132. Truth says:

    Lecavalier $4.5/yr x 5 yrs. They have to do something now. How about Hartnell and Coburn?

  133. theres oil in virginia says:

    Marc,
    I don’t get how the Flyers just got bailed out of overpay contracts and have immediately embarked on a series of new ones; Streit, LeCav,…who’s next? Luongo?

    This may put me in the doghouse here, but I would sooner cheer for the Flames than the Flyers.

  134. Truth says:

    Actually. Their centers now: Giroux, Lecavalier, Schenn, Couturier. They are extremely deep at that position, but should be looking to upgrade another.

  135. RexLibris says:

    theres oil in virginia:
    Marc,
    I don’t get how the Flyers just got bailed out of overpay contracts and have immediately embarked on a series of new ones; Streit, LeCav,…who’s next?Luongo?

    This may put me in the doghouse here, but I would sooner cheer for the Flames than the Flyers.

    Go to Doghouse. Do not pass Go, do not collect $200.

    ;)

  136. RexLibris says:

    This is when I get on the horn to Holmgren and do a major trade. Target Couturier and Coburn and offer up a 1st, a prospect, a handful of 2nd rounders, etc.

    Couturier is too good to be affordable as a 4th line center. Offer them some prospects on affordable contracts and a wealth of picks, perhaps? They have put themselves over a cap barrel and it would be highly advantageous to offer them a way out of it.

  137. theres oil in virginia says:

    RexLibris: Go to Doghouse. Do not pass Go, do not collect $200.

    “Okay, Dad. Sorry.” ((Spoken like my 5-year old son speaks to me.))
    “Can I still have dessert?” ((hehe))

  138. Nostradumbass says:

    I would stay out of the Frenzy day one

    Very weak free agent class is going to drive average players to get lengthy and expensive contracts.

    Find some one year deals after the fury

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