Draft weekend brought another highly touted defenseman, a Q winger with an interesting skill set and about two miles of Russians. None of them will help Craig MacTavish this fall, and that’s what this week is all about–the list.
- Top 4 defender (Braydon Coburn???)
- Sign Sam Gagner to a multi-year deal that has begins with a number in the 4′s
- Get Paajarvi signed and then find a role that suits him (suspect it’s 3line).
- NHL goalie
- Find a 2line L who can complement Gagner-Yakupov with puck retrieval, blocking out the sun, etc
- Find a 3line R
- Find a 3line C
- Find a 4line C
- Deal Hemsky for immediate help (even if its a checker).
- Deal Horcoff or slot him into the 3line job for which he is actually ideal.
- Decide on Lander/Belanger or other for 13F (and 14F if they go with 7D).
- Better blue depth (MacT has done this with Belov, plus Klefbom/Fedun/Marincin)
- AHL #1/NHL #3 goalie
- Sign Paul Ranger
FREE AGENT LIST (OILER EDITION)
Let’s have a look, no specific order of preference (my list is Stalberg, Ranger and Khudobin) but the big names are at the top.
- C Vincent Lecavalier. He’ll want a long term deal, but an off the gauge one-year offer might get his attention. Why not try?
- R Nathan Horton, Boston: 27-year old will have all kinds of options this summer. I would rank this player as an ideal, but possibly unrealistic option. If MacT lands him, that should be considered a massive win.
- C Valtteri Filppula. MacT could hit a big fly with this Finn C, who has skill, 2-way ability and has had tremendous success over his NHL years. If MacT is looking for a free agent option to send a clear message to players, fans, and league, this is the free agent to procure over the summer.
- R David Clarkson, New Jersey: 29-year old. Although it is unlikely Edmonton would be his first option, I think he is pretty close to a ‘perfect fit’ for this team and perhaps worthy of an overpay. Should MacT get him, it should be considered in the same category as a Nathan Horton/Filppula acquisition.
- W Viktor Stalberg. If the Oilers could sign him at a reasonable number and give him the soft parade with Gagner-Yakupov I think we might be looking at another 20 goal season.
- L Clarke MacArthur. Veteran LW who can score goals and hangs in there in the tough going. Leafs may still sign him but should he come available, MacArthur may be an ideal addition to the Gagner-Yakupov duo. He’s young enough to hang around for the good times, but experienced enough to be a part of the elder statesman group MacT is probably going to bring in to replace Horcoff.
- C Daniel Briere: Another solid offensive player when healthy, he’s long in the tooth now but the guy can create when he’s right.
- C Boyd Gordon. A strong 2-way option for any team, suspect he’ll have a lot of interest in a very competitive free agent summer. The Oilers have had success in the last 12 months (Schultz, Belov), and signing Gordon would be a large item. Expect he would see both 3rd and 4th line C duties depending on situation/how many holes they can repair this summer.
- L Ryan Clowe. In looking for ‘puck retrieval’ options, I didn’t find a whole hell of them. Clowe will be over priced and may be on the downside, but he fits the description.
- D Paul Ranger. I think he’d qualify under improved depth, but there does seem to be a player here. He’s 28, mobile, smart and has average size. This isn’t a major ‘name’ option, but NHL history is rife with defenders who wandered the wilderness, settled in late 20′s, and had significant NHL careers. Steve Staios arrived in Edmonton, age 28.
- G Anton Khudobin. Free agent Bruin backup may want to play in the NHL more often than he does currently, he would be the ideal solution.
Apparently the club is about to sign another Russian blue too–Grebeshkov?????!?!?!? I’m wearing tinfoil today just in case.
I believe the deadline is today at 5pm to qualify the rfa’s, so we should be hearing news today about these players.
- Sam Gagner: Last we heard talks were progressing, of course they still have time but the key element here is to get something done before the young center files for arbitration. He could file, accept the offer and become a UFA one year from now.
- Magnus Paajarvi: A little exposed, I thought he could have been dealt at the draft–remember, the new GM has no loyalty to these guys. Ask MacT how he feels about Darnell Nurse and there’s a personal connection. Paajarvi is just some guy–except that he’s not just some guy. I’m hopeful they get a contract done at a reasonable dollar and term. Important signing, despite being somewhat under the radar.
- Theo Peckham: I think he’s gone. I hope he finds a career, and I know he’ll get another chance.
- Taylor Fedun: Has a very good chance of getting a contract and I think he’s going to play some NHL in 2013-14.
- Colten Teubert: Suspect the Oilers walk him.
- Phil Cornet: A tweener. Don’t know what they’ll do.
Yesterday I asked a question about the Oilers dealing down, basically listing all the players Edmonton got for the Zykov selection and asking if it looked like good value. Plenty of quality comments, and Eric Tulsky (big brain) even wrote a post over at the C&B stating the lack of wisdom in those choices. Tulsky’s look is based on previous NHL trades, and looks solid; my question though has more to do with the choices in this draft at this time. If you’re MacT and can acquire 5 bullets for one and your people are saying some of the new bullets are about as good as the one you’re dealing away?
I think the Oilers had specific players or a range in mind–otherwise why do this deal?–and based on the results I’d say it worked out. They began with three picks in the top 100 and ended up with 6 players in Corey Pronman’s top 100, and did it by getting less than full historic value for #37. Does that then (sorry for my wording) make the Tulsky point moot? I don’t know. I’m asking.
Spoiler wrote an interesting item on the subject:
- SpOILer: Yesterday was a crucial turning point in the History of Oiler Management…An Edmonton Oiler GM schooled the NHL in Math class. Say that out loud if you’re not feeling the import. Let’s use Captain Happy Pills’ probabilities from the Sloan video:5) 2nd and 3rd rounds 25% (slight variance between rounds)6) 4th, 5th, 6th, 7th rounds 10%83, 88, 94, 96, 113Two 3rd rounders and three 4th rounders…The two 3rd rounders have a 25% chance each, but let’s be conservative and say 20%. The three 4ths have 10% chance each. The outcomes are mutually exclusive of each other, so their joint probability is a union. Think of it as the odds of rolling a 1, with two 5 sided dice and three 10 sided dice, if you prefer (or if you are an ex-AD&Der, or perhaps a campfire Yahtzee player). This is expressed arithmetically as:2/10 + 2/10 + 1/10 + 1/10 + 1/10 = 7/10 or 70% chance of one of the picks becoming an NHLer.70%.Versus a 25% chance.Schooled.You move up when you are desperate to add all stars, but you really need to get into the 1st round to have a better than a 1 in 10 shot. Nor does it matter what Zykov becomes, the math says you make this bet every day of the week. You might not win this hand, but you will win more hands over the long run. We can quibble about the picks, and will, but we shouldn’t be quibbling about the trade in face of such blatant (an simple) math. This hearkens to, no exemplifies DMW’s post the other day about the natural biases for making the same kind of mistakes, especially when perceiving losses to improvements despite the final outcomes being the same. Prescient post, DMW. As for the quality of the picks coming back, that outcome is heavily dependent on what is available. The rank of pairs that are available to be traded are out of one’s control and will vary greatly from season to season.Ladies and Gentleman, the Edmonton Oilers know math. It’s about fuckin time. (but yahoo!)
Later today or tomorrow, I’m going to post my opinion on this Oilers draft. It is wildly different than any of their drafts I can recall, and I recall all of them.
THE LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE
Today at 10am on the show, we’ll talk draft, free agency, trades, Gillis, Phoenix and more. Scheduled to appear:
- Tyler Dellow from mc79hockey. We’ll talk draft, Schneider trade, free agency.
- Guy Flaming from the Pipeline Show. Draft impressions, surprises and curious things.
- Ryan Rishaug from tsn. We’ll talk about the draft weekend, the MacT-Holmgren draft floor dance, and free agency.
- Corey Pronman from Hockey Prospectus. We’ll talk about the Oilers and Pronman’s list–there are some similarities.
- Brock Otten from OHL Prospects blog. Brock was strong on Darnell Nurse before the draft, saying he was the #1 OHL prospect. We’ll find out why.
Comments welcome, 10-1260 via text, @Lowetide_ on twitter and I do check the comments on the blog during the show. Questions for guests also welcome. Hope you can tune in!