GAGNER SUNDAY

We’ve now arrived at Sunday with no news on Sam Gagner’s signing, but one suspects the power of the deadline is creating more urgency. For Sam Gagner, this is probably a time when your cell phone is on and you’re hopeful movement from the other side is on the horizon.

For Craig MacTavish, the idea of going to arbitration must be noxious–Gagner’s signing ahead of Nuge, Justin Schultz and then later Nail Yakupov is out there waiting–finding a way to fit 89 into the future is an important item. If those 4 men average $6M a year, added to Hall and Ebs, that represents $36M cap annually for six players (or about one quarter of the overall roster).

If MacT feels he cannot get a long term deam from 89–and that’s possible, there’s an enormous payday waiting for Samwise next summer–then he has to either trade him now (insane, since there’s no possible way the other 29 teams can assess at this point) or do it sometime during the year. Let’s start with the idea of Sam Gagner being dealt and no forward coming back–perhaps it’s my beloved 3-for-1 and a top drawer defender arrives in return for Gagner, Smid and Martin Marincin.

PROJECTED FORWARD LINEUP SANS SAM GAGNER

  • Hall-Perron-Eberle
  • Nuge-Yakupov-Hemsky
  • Gordon-Smyth-Jones
  • Lander-Joensuu-Brown

The Oilers are actually stronger at center (in my opinion) with Hall in the middle, and still maintain tremendous firepower on the wings for lines 1 and 2. However, the depth–already an issue–is very poor with Gagner plucked from it. Sending new coach Dallas Eakins to war in the Pacific with this bottom 6F would be dereliction of duty.

Steve Simmons reports this morning that the most likely spots for Mikael Grabovski are Washington, Winnipeg, Florida and Calgary. I imagine those four teams (or the team that doesn’t get Grabovski) would be interesting in Gagner, and of course each of those teams have many attractive assets to offer in return. Oilers can get value for Gagner, I just don’t believe that’s the wise play.

FINLAND SAVES US AGAIN?

Petri+Kontiola+Phoenix+Coyotes+v+Chicago+Blackhawks+lWJKZ08CHYWx

I got a tweet message last night from someone asking me about Petri Kontiola and the Oilers signing him. I have no direct connection to the Oilers, but do have gracious people who work in the hockey industry who come to my aid from time to time. I can confirm that he is signed for two more seasons in the KHL, and that the window for transfer has now passed (many KHL contracts have a window for NHL offers–we know this from the Anton Belov Experience).

A name to keep in mind down the line? Let’s call it that, although he clearly has some ability and would be a nice fit based on the boxcars.

GOOD NEWS SUNDAY?

herrera

The next 24 hours is the signing window. If we get any news today, it’s likely to be good. Stand by…..

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79 Responses to "GAGNER SUNDAY"

  1. Rondo says:

    LT,

    Why is Sam Gagner worth so much more than Bryan Little?

    I know what player I would choose to play 2nd line center.

  2. DBO says:

    This is a huge moment for MacT. I hope to see a long term deal, even if they mean to deal him. If he has 5 years on a contract, some teams will see more value. especially if they are offensively starved, or they want an offensive upgrade.

    Who can we get from the teams you mentioned?

    Washington – Laich. Solid 2nd line centre with two way ability. They may do it for an upgrade since they are in win now mode. Consolation: Brouwer.

    Florida – Kulikov and Upshall. A bit of a money dump for Florida in Upshall, but Kulikov becomes a top 4 guy for us right now, and Gagner becomes their Weiss replacement. Could possibly have to include Schultz the elder to round out Florida’s D.

    Winnipeg – Kane would be great. Allows us to move Hallt to centre, and put Kane on his wing. Have to be more in the deal, but could be a good fit for both teams. Money would probably be the same as well, but Winnipeg needs a #1, and Gagner would be that right away, and Kane seems to have some issues with the org.

  3. Clarkenstein says:

    Why does this last picture remind me of Kavis Reed?

  4. Lowetide says:

    Rondo: Gagner’s career numbers are a little better and he’s 2 years younger. If we put them in 82gp averages:

    Gagner: 18-33-51
    Little: 20-26-46

    Plus he’s two years younger. I think THE issue with Gagner is the number of ‘heart of his career’ seasons a team will be buying next summer. A six year deal probably means six quality seasons. Exceptional value.

  5. KSC10032 says:

    IF Sam is traded, I think that the focus should be on talent acquisition regardless of position. I just don’t see any feasible centre for centre swaps out there.

    The term commitment required for a smallish 28 year old UFA like Grabovski leaves me cold.

    It all seems to add up to some kind of “overpayment” for Gagner being the best available option, unless the Oilers are prepared to sacrifice any long shot at next season’s playoffs and continue to “grow their own”

  6. Rondo says:

    Lowetide,

    Reason I asked is Little plays against better competition, his TOI, 2-way game, and good at face-offs.

  7. Lowetide says:

    Rondo:
    Lowetide,

    Reason I asked is Little plays against better competition, his TOI, and good at face-offs.

    Little’s an excellent player. However, Gagner’s the one who Tambellini allowed to sign a deal that gets him to the edge of free agency with arb rights. At this point, the Jets are better off with Little than pursuing an unsigned Gagner, and that will impact 89′s contract.

  8. sliderule says:

    It kind of looks that Gagner is going all the way.

    The oil are so weak at center that I can’t see them trading him for a defender.

    Prospect center like Johanson ?

  9. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    I was really pulling for Kontiola… sounds like some delicious Finnish cola that is maybe a bit overpowering and possibility alcoholic.

    Remember Jolt anyone?

    Maybe he can defect and be our own “Moscow on the North Saskatchewan”

    ——-

    I like Gagner, want him to stay. but the more an arbitration year or a long term deal well above 5 per starts to look like a reality the more I look towards MacT really cutting ties with the mistakes of the past.

    We rushed Gagner and bungled his contracts.

    If the friendly deal isn’t out there. I chase Grabo for 4 x 4.5 and try to package Gagner for Tyutin, Kulikov or some other D gem.

  10. Redwood Original says:

    “Steve Simmons reports this morning that the most likely spots for Mikael Grabovski are Washington, Winnipeg, Florida and Calgary”

    As I browsed around NHL.com yesterday, looking for a new home for Gagner should the situation call for such action, I came to the realization the there are not very many teams that fit as partners for such a transaction. The four teams Simmons mentions are all very good fits for Sam, but how good for the Oilers procuring a return? Lets take a look, keeping in mind these are players that would interest the Oilers, and the other teams would realistically part with.

    Washington: Brooks Laich $4.5m; Troy Brouwer $3.67m; John Carlson $3.97m; Evgeni Kuznetzov (KHL)
    Washington definitely has the need for a Sam Gagner after Mike Ribiero moved on. I’m not convinced that the Brooks Laichs and Troy Brouwers of the world are the type of return I’d want for a young scoring center. Sure they help the depth factor, but perhaps a deal around Carlson and perhaps Kuznetzov is an equal opportunity trade to make?

    Florida: Dmitry Kulikov $2.5m; Tomas Kopecky $3.0m; Shawn Matthias $1.75m; Bjugstad $1.1m

    Florida could use Gagner, and if the Oilers could land Matthias and Kulikov in some sort of trade, I think that stands to improve the team.

    Winnipeg: Bogosian RFA; Enstrom $5.75m; Burmistrov RFA (KHL); Trouba $1.8m;

    Winnipeg is the best fit. Bogosian would be a tremendous addition to the Oilers, he is also stuck in RFA land right now. I would be exhausting every opportunity to try and make this happen. And perhaps steal the rights to Burmistrov while I was at it.

    I won’t include Calgary for obvious reasons.

    There are options, teams with cap space and needs. It looks tough to find a good value deal for Sam, and I don’t think there is a satisfying 1 for 1 out there.

  11. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    sliderule:
    It kind of looks that Gagner is going all the way.

    The oil are so weak at center that I can’t see them trading him for a defender.

    Prospect center like Johanson ?

    Gagner, N. Schultz + for Tyutin, Johansen…

    we’ve pitched that (or equivalent) before, still looks good to me. Let Ry-Jo play the 4C and sign Grabo.

  12. Redwood Original says:

    DBO,

    Good post. Guess I need to type faster. More coffee!

  13. Acumen says:

    I’ve been wanting a Gagner-for-Bogosian based deal for about 3 or 4 years now. That would be perfect.

  14. Ducey says:

    LT,

    It appears all the Rage to blame Tambo for not signing Gags for the longterm, but the is an alternative.

    Perhaps Gagner absolutely refused to sign more than a one year deal. Maybe he has had his eye on freeagency for a few years? He may have been insisting on $5.5 M for few years now.

  15. Gino says:

    The more I think about this IMO the less a like a long term contract at this time if it doesn’t work out to what Mactavish perceives as value. Take the arbitrators assessment for the one year and try to get a new deal done before he becomes UFA or work out a trade and as lowtide says with Nuge, Schultz and Yakupov due for some raises in their subsequent contracts trying to fit Gagner in will be a very difficult decision. I believe the 3 for 1 that’s been talked about so much in the last few years will end up having Gagner involved.

  16. cabbiesmacker says:

    I hope Oiler fans are prepared for a Gagner signoing at north of $5M per hastening Eberle’s departure.

    If MacT is seriously thinking he can emulate a Chicago or Boston model then the minor league forward depth had best improve dramatically and soon. Both of those teams have 6 players at 5 plus cap hit and reset the lineup almost annually to work around their core contracts. No problem if you can tweak with value trades and call-ups but Edmonton doesn’t have that appeal.

    Then there’s the fact that Hall, Eberle, Yakupov, RNH, Gagner, and Schultz are not close to the 6′s Boston and Chicago can throw at you. Yet. Ever?

    So Gagner gets a Horcoffian boat anchor contract? Nice. He can be the Oilers Pat equivalent. (Sharp or Bergeron). Unfortunately he’s a piss poor equivalent to both.

    Oilers painted themselves into this corner. Watching them try to navigate out of it is going to be real interesting.

  17. Lowetide says:

    Ducey:
    LT,

    It appears all the Rage to blame Tambo for not signing Gags for the longterm, but the is an alternative.

    Perhaps Gagner absolutely refused to sign more than a one year deal.Maybe he has had his eye on freeagency for a few years?He may have been insisting on $5.5 M for few years now.

    Well, perhaps you trade him a year ago. Gagner’s value is reduced now, and won’t recover until the Oilers have him signed long term and at a reasonable number. That is not assured, and a bloated contract is only slightly more attractive than a one year deal.

    Avoiding this mess was a big job, but the one year deal was a mess. I remember well reading the press release, and the Oilers were all about ‘Sam needs to prove he’s worthy of a long term deal’ and now the offices on Kingsway huddle and discuss the lack of options.

    It’s a pity.

  18. Numenius says:

    I love the idea of Gagner for someone like Laich.

    I’m convinced the Oilers would be better off in the long run with a slightly lower scoring 2C than Gagner who was bigger, meaner, and good with possession and faceoffs. The Oiler’s strength is in scoring wingers, so they would make up for the lack of scoring and perhaps even score more with a C who creates space.

    Instead of a Clarkson at wing, you have a Clarkson at C.

  19. theres oil in virginia says:

    Lowetide:

    Gagner’s value is reduced now, and won’t recover until the Oilers have him signed long term and at a reasonable number.

    Which is exactly why he won’t sign such a deal without trade protection, and some posters here have said he can’t get trade protection while he’s RFA. Why sign a friendly deal and then still face being traded to god-only-knows-where. It may be time to accept the real possibility that he won’t sign with Edmonton long term until very near the trade deadline, at the earliest.

    He’d be a damn fool to give up his UFA payday without any real assurance of playing where he wants to play. The Oilers would be damn fools to let him go.

  20. Bushed says:

    Rather than asking what exact number and term the market will bear for Sam, we should be asking does he fit with the long-term vision for this team–can we win with RNH and Sam as our top 2?

    Yes, the timing is awkward and we can moan about Dithers shoulda coulda woulda, but I’m much more interested in what MacT’s vision is for the team long term than how much Sam gets on this or his next contract.

    We still don’t have significant size and grit in our top 6, so what has to change to fix that?

    Even if you are a huge Gags fan, do you really want to see any of the other 5 moved?

    Or maybe a better question is what would Lou in NJ do in this situation?

    If winning in a very large and physical division and team balance/chemistry are really the goals, I don’t know how Sam fits into the picture, no matter what the contract number and term. Or are we really going to slide back into the “team toughness/outskill everyone like Detroit used to” fantasy?

    You’re a nice guy Sam, and have been a good teammate. No hard feelings; we can still be friends…

  21. spoiler says:

    I wish someone could explain how they think Tambellini could have forced Gagner to sign a long term deal last summer. He had the hammer then too. The players always do. Why do you think GMs/owners wanted to hang onto RFA rights during the last CBA? Why do you think we’ve seen other players take the same route as Gagner with their negotiations? Some still go as far as to holdout when they don’t have arb rights, like in NYR, who is now cap-screwed.

    The meme that this is a Tambellini fuckup as if he had control over the situation and not the player is ridiculous.

  22. admiralmark says:

    Sure would be nice to hear Edmonton getting a little of a home town discount. I just dont get players I guess? Its supposed to be all about the team and I would even say on the ice Gagner has been just that.. all about the team. Yet the thought never crosses a players mind that hey that extra $500,000 / year im squeezing out of the team will affect what players can be put around me in the future. And if he sees whats being built and wants to be a part of it… whats wrong with taking a $4.5 Mill deal? I’m sure he could get a NTC by taking a discount. If 5-10 players on the team negotiate that way you end up with an extra $3-$6 Million Cap space to fill the teams needs. Its a business and its his right… But I just dont see why more dont think this way with the knowledge of how cap space affects a teams ability to build the best team.

  23. sumaclab says:

    I do not see this ending well . Sam signing on arbitration day once again is unlikely. If I were his agent I would advise Sam to take a one year deal. The desire to remain an Oiler over getting paid 6-7 million dollars a year is in my mind a no brainer. Take the money. MacT will be forced to trade Gagner this summer when the clock strikes tomorrow for the arbitration hearing. At what value will the return be is the question? Would a Gagner to Columbus for Ryan Murray be fair? Or Ryan Johansen? MacT cannot go into the 2013-14 without a long term contract signed for Gagner. So Lowetide the list of honey do may grow by just one more after Monday. The darkling shadows are looming.

  24. Rondo says:

    Oilers are in a tough situation, I’m sure the Oilers have an idea what Gagner is worth in a trade. The answer is not much. So they need to sign him. Gagner’s agent knows this .

    Fans like myself, think of plausible trades, but we overestimate the worth of the player. Gagner is not worth much.

  25. theres oil in virginia says:

    spoiler:
    I wish someone could explain how they think Tambellini could have forced Gagner to sign a long term deal last summer. He had the hammer then too. The players always do.Why do you think GMs/owners wanted to hang onto RFA rights during the last CBA? Why do you think we’ve seen other players take the same route as Gagner with their negotiations? Some still go as far as to holdout when they don’t have arb rights, like in NYR, who is now cap-screwed.

    The meme that this is a Tambellini fuckup as if he had control over the situation and not the player is ridiculous.

    Well, my position is that Tambellini was going to have to “over pay” to get Sam signed long term (which is “no doubt” why he wouldn’t sign him long term), but the overpay then was a good bit smaller than it is now. The production from last year puts Gagner in another tier than he was previously. The hammer is now bigger.

  26. gogliano says:

    I noted this last Gagner thread but I’ll say it again: everyone seems to assume either a one year deal or a long term contract, but I don’t think those are the two options. I think the ideal outcome for the Oilers, given the current constraints, is a two-year pact. From the Oiler’s standpoint, it makes a lot of sense: a long-term deal given Gagner’s leverage and his play last season will hamstring the team going forward without guarantee that he’ll justify the cost; the cap situation begins to get tight in two years, when Yakupov comes up for his signing; it allows the Oilers to see how much sustain Gagner’s recent spike in counting stats has; and it allows the Oilers to know the cap direction + the cost of the big 5 (J. Schultz also comes up next year) relative to the cap before throwing money at a secondary player.

    Selling Gagner on a second year might be tougher but given his arbitration request it seems doable. The team can afford to meet his salary demands if he agrees to the shorter deal and it still gives him the opportunity for a home run contract in two years. If he still resists even a two year contract then you know he is planning on hitting free agency so you deal him quick.

    It’d be nice to fold that RFA year into a long term pact but the leverage for that was lost a long time ago. A 2 year deal would give MacT a lot more freedom than a one year deal or a pricey long term deal.

  27. theres oil in virginia says:

    admiralmark:
    Sure would be nice to hear Edmonton getting a little of a home town discount. I just dont get players I guess? Its supposed to be all about the team and I would even say on the ice Gagner has been just that.. all about the team. Yet the thought never crosses a players mind that hey that extra $500,000 / year im squeezing out of the team will affect what players can be put around me in the future. And if he sees whats being built and wants to be a part of it… whats wrong with taking a $4.5 Mill deal? I’m sure he could get a NTC by taking a discount. If 5-10 players on the team negotiate that way you end up with an extra $3-$6 Million Cap space to fill the teams needs. Its a business and its his right… But I just dont see why more dont think this way with the knowledge of how cap space affects a teams ability to build the best team.

    Because the team can still trade him after he signs a deal with a “hometown discount”. It’s a business in the end, and if Gagner’s going to give up salary to stay, then he’d better get assurance that he’s staying. I think respect factors in, too. If you’re good at something, you want to be respected for that. The number one way of showing respect is on the paycheck. If Gagner is part of the “core”, he should be treated like he is part of the core.

  28. cabbiesmacker says:

    Lowetide: Well, perhaps you trade him a year ago. Gagner’s value is reduced now, and won’t recover until the Oilers have him signed long term and at a reasonable number. That is not assured, and a bloated contract is only slightly more attractive than a one year deal.

    Avoiding this mess was a big job, but the one year deal was a mess. I remember well reading the press release, and the Oilers were all about ‘Sam needs to prove he’s worthy of a long term deal’ and now the offices on Kingsway huddle and discuss the lack of options.

    It’s a pity.

    A trade at the deadline would have been appropriate. Value was high and the team should have known the playoffs were a pipedream.

    The O’Reilly for Gagner possibles would have been a real nice solution if they existed.

  29. cabbiesmacker says:

    1) Sign Grabovski as insurance for less than what Gagner is asking and take your lumps.

    2) Get Gagner’s name on a one year and eject him into the NHL stratosphere.

    Poster above mentions $6 – 7 per above. Who in hell would pay Gagner that kind of coin?

    Hey maybe the kid realizes his potential and scores 55 – 58 butter soft points this year. The realignment doesn’t make that a huge possible but one never knows. He’s got enough talent around him to make it happen.

  30. PunjabiOil says:

    Sure would be nice to hear Edmonton getting a little of a home town discount. I just dont get players I guess? Its supposed to be all about the team and I would even say on the ice Gagner has been just that.. all about the team. Yet the thought never crosses a players mind that hey that extra $500,000 / year im squeezing out of the team will affect what players can be put around me in the future. And if he sees whats being built and wants to be a part of it… whats wrong with taking a $4.5 Mill deal? I’m sure he could get a NTC by taking a discount. If 5-10 players on the team negotiate that way you end up with an extra $3-$6 Million Cap space to fill the teams needs. Its a business and its his right… But I just dont see why more dont think this way with the knowledge of how cap space affects a teams ability to build the best team.

    As already mentioned TOIV, the NTC could be a hold up.

    Further, if you’re Sam Gagner and you see the team playing hardball with you, but offering a guy like Clarkson more money and term, if makes you question how much of a discount you should be willin to take.

  31. G Money says:

    spoiler: The meme that this is a Tambellini fuckup as if he had control over the situation and not the player is ridiculous.

    Last year, coming off identical high 40 pt seasons, Tambo signed Gagner to a 1 year $3.25M deal because he needed to “prove himself”, while Voracek (who has been suggested, incorrectly in my opinion, as a comparable to Gagner this year) signed a 4 x $4.25M deal.

    Are you suggesting that Gagner would have turned down a similar deal? Personally, I don’t think so.

    Since then, both players – not unexpectedly, given age – have upped their scoring rates. Gagner last season was at the equivalent a full season ~65 pt season, while Voracek is off the charts at a ~75+ pt rate.

    Both contracts would now be considered value contracts.

    The difference is that one is signed and one is not!

    We cannot know for sure that Tambo had that option, but the circumstantial evidence certainly points to a fuckup.

  32. rickithebear says:

    MacT
    “ganer @ wing”
    “ganer is a wing”
    “gagner wing”
    Oilers wing:
    Hall
    Eberle
    Perron
    Yakupov
    Gagner
    Hemsky
    Joensuu
    Smyth
    Jones

  33. G Money says:

    admiralmark: Sure would be nice to hear Edmonton getting a little of a home town discount.

    Per my previous post, Gagner signed for $3.25M last year vs a longer term $4.25M for a similar point rate Voracek.

    If I were in Sam’s shoes, I would be saying “I gave you guys the discount last year to ‘prove myself’ – this time $am $agner is gettin’ PAID.”

  34. Hammers says:

    This still may get done . It’s noon in the east and that leaves 1 full day for us or another team to get it done . Maybe the best option under the circumstances would be rfa Bogosian straight up for rfa gags with an aside of a “D” from us like Petry for Scheifle .Is McT willing to sit with a player and tell him all his shortcomings and what kind of a taste does that leave ?Ugh.

  35. TheOtherJohn says:

    GMoney

    If you are right :

    “I gave you guys the discount last year to ‘prove myself’ – this time $am $agner is gettin’ PAID.”

    It’s time to develop a strategy to move the player because you don’t pay your 6th best player “PAID” money

  36. spoiler says:

    This final round by Lefty was just magnificent. Incredible shot-making.

  37. TheOtherJohn says:

    Hammers

    If you trade for Bogosin, who I like, Boyd Gordon is our #1 centre for the first 6-8 weeks of this coming season. Huge fan of Boyd Gordon but that’s a disaster

  38. Lowetide says:

    I rarely re-watch a sporting event, but will do exactly that with the Open today. Mikkelson was majestic.

  39. vesci says:

    Bushed:
    Rather than asking what exact number and term the market will bear for Sam, we should be asking does he fit with the long-term vision for this team–can we win with RNH and Sam as our top 2?

    Yes, the timing is awkward and we can moan about Dithers shoulda coulda woulda, but I’m much more interested in what MacT’s vision is for the team long term than how much Sam gets on this or his next contract.

    We still don’t have significant size and grit in our top 6, so what has to change to fix that?

    Even if you are a huge Gags fan, do you really want to see any of the other 5 moved?

    Or maybe a better question is what would Lou in NJ do in this situation?

    If winning in a very large and physical division and team balance/chemistry are really the goals, I don’t know how Sam fits into the picture, no matter what the contract number and term. Or are we really going to slide back into the “team toughness/outskill everyone like Detroit used to” fantasy?

    You’re a nice guy Sam, and have been a good teammate. No hard feelings; we can still be friends…

    I tend to agree with what you say. Sam is a nice player but may not be the best fit and this is especially true if he wants North of $5MM per year. This is because the question shouldn’t just be is he a nice player, but is he the right player at the price. when answering this one also needs to take into account whether the price will affect the ability to sign other players in the future, either our own soon to be free agents or others.

    I like Sam just not his fit at a large cap hit and taking into account the Oilers future needs and players to be signed. It really comes down to me feeling the other core players are bigger priorities as are the Oilers other outstanding needs.

  40. Ryan says:

    gogliano,

    I like the cut of your jib.

    Obviously a 1-yr arb award would be an unmitigated disaster for the Oilers. So too would be a long albatross of a contract. A 2 year deal sounds like a decent idea from the Oilers point of few.

    If I’m Sam Gagner, however, I either want to be the youngest UFA in history or a long-term deal at a rate I think I deserve.

    If I were Sam Gagner who’s a pretty decent and smart person, I’d probably like the idea of longer term contract for financial security. A nice 6 year deal where I know if I get injured, I’m financially set for life. I wouldn’t like the idea of a 2 year deal because I’m probably dangling the UFA threat to get this security. A two year deal would put the risk on my end while delaying my UFA status.

  41. G Money says:

    TheOtherJohn:
    GMoney

    If you are right :

    “I gave you guys the discount last year to ‘prove myself’ – this time $am $agner is gettin’ PAID.”

    It’s time to develop a strategy to move the player because you don’t pay your 6th best player “PAID” money

    I agree.

    I have been defending young Sammy’s right and likelihood to demand full $ from his contract so much that I am tempted to change my screen name to “Sam G Money”.

    But the irony in this is that if Sam really does get the money due a 65 pt centre (which as I ‘ve noted a number of times, puts him in solid mid-pack 1C territory, NOT 2C) – that would be as a guess $5.25M – $5.5M on a long term contract – I’m not sure the Oilers can afford him.

  42. spoiler says:

    Lowetide: I rarely re-watch a sporting event, but will do exactly that with the Open today. Mikkelson was majestic.

    I know, I’m thinking about doing the same. Have things to do but this round deserves to stick in my memory well into my dotage. Kind of like NIcklaus at Augusta in 86.

    And this looked exactly like a NIcklaus charge too. Something Tiger has never done… win by coming from behind.

  43. vesci says:

    Lowetide:
    I rarely re-watch a sporting event, but will do exactly that with the Open today. Mikkelson was majestic.

    Ahhhhhhhhhh. I have it PVRd and I hate Phil. I guess the only good news is you saved me hours in my basement on a beautiful day. :)

  44. G Money says:

    Lowetide:
    I rarely re-watch a sporting event, but will do exactly that with the Open today. Mikkelson was majestic.

    Why do you hate hockey so much?

  45. commonfan14 says:

    Maybe we’re all just missing the fact that the Oilers are about to complete the most masterful 6-year pump and dump in NHL history.

    And it’s interesting that we’re talking so much about cap management, holes and lack of depth, yet also talking about making Gags part of a 3-for-1. Couldn’t making him part of a “dreaded” 1-fot-3 help all those problems?

    Get a non-flashy but more complete and less expensive 2C, a good 3LW and a good F prospect or two who can come in and play for cheap in a couple years?

  46. Lowetide says:

    Commonfan: In fairness, I was talking about a top drawer D.

  47. LMHF#1 says:

    I’m a huge Phil fan. Woke up at 6:30 with the little man and he got to watch his first Open. What a day. Especially after that US Open. Just tremendous.

  48. spoiler says:

    My offer to Gagner would be 4 x 4.65M. I would offer a limited NTC for the first two years. If his offense explodes, he will still be young enough for a big contract at the other end. If I’m GM, I explain to him that I can’t pay him like a 1st line player, however his stats comp out, as he’s never going to be the de facto 1st line C. If he wants to be part of the future, he needs to accept that role, both on the ice and on his paycheque. If Gags wants to be part of building a winner, rather than sabotaging it by caphit, he will accept that price point.

  49. commonfan14 says:

    Lowetide,

    For sure , LT – but even that only plugs one hole while creating another. And the hole being plugged has a much better chance of being filled in naturally over time through the pipeline than the 2C one we’d be creating.

  50. Doomoil says:

    The open would have been enjoyable to watch if there had been anything resembling consistency from day to day. They screwed the pooch big time with the management of the course over these 4 days.

    Watching the us open crush players because its hard is one thing. Watching the best players in the world struggle because they have no idea how the course is going to react from hole to hole is just infuriating.

  51. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Have we signed Thoresen yet?

  52. Gret99zky says:

    admiralmark:
    Sure would be nice to hear Edmonton getting a little of a home town discount. I just dont get players I guess? Its supposed to be all about the team and I would even say on the ice Gagner has been just that.. all about the team. Yet the thought never crosses a players mind that hey that extra $500,000 / year im squeezing out of the team will affect what players can be put around me in the future. And if he sees whats being built and wants to be a part of it… whats wrong with taking a $4.5 Mill deal? I’m sure he could get a NTC by taking a discount. If 5-10 players on the team negotiate that way you end up with an extra $3-$6 Million Cap space to fill the teams needs. Its a business and its his right… But I just dont see why more dont think this way with the knowledge of how cap space affects a teams ability to build the best team.

    Homer: Ya know Mr. Burns, you’re the richest guy I know–way richer than Lenny.

    Mr. Burns: Yes, but I’d trade it all for a little more.

  53. "Steve Smith" says:

    G Money: Why do you hate hockey so much?

    Because Ladi Smid doesn’t golf.

  54. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    LT,

    for your “Hall gets no respect” file:

    http://www.tsn.ca/nhl/story/?id=428036

  55. Lowetide says:

    Romulus Apotheosis:
    LT,

    for your “Hall gets no respect” file:

    http://www.tsn.ca/nhl/story/?id=428036

    Well, crazy is as crazy does. If Hall doesn’t get an invite, the people running Team Canada are idiots.

  56. rickithebear says:

    spoiler: And this looked exactly like a NIcklaus charge too. Something Tiger has never done… win by coming from behind.

    When I read shit like this i Think Holy f…….
    What a pathetic shot at TW.
    People like you are why I could not cheer for Phil.

    We as hockey fans pride in the player who excels while playing hurt!
    you do realize phil @ his best. Today!
    Hardly beat Tiger woods with a messed Elbow!

    I enjoy seeing players complete a career grand slam.
    Next year us open will be the first ime i cheer for phil.
    Hoping he gets his first Grand slam.

    I will also cheer for TW to win the Us open and Open Championship
    to become the first with 4 grand slams.

  57. Woodguy says:

    Here something fun to play around with.

    Greg Sinclair – @ninjagreg has added to hit shot location program

    Lots of fun to play around with:

    http://somekindofninja.com/nhl/index.php?season=Regular&year=2012-2013&shots=Against&team=Toronto+Maple+Leafs&ice_player_name=&withPlayer=On+Ice&player_name=&goalie_name=&event=Shots+and+Goals&game=Away&strength=Even&time=Regulation&scoringChance=yes&search=Search

    Greg has been talking about replicating all of VIc’s TOI tools so the hockey stats community doesn’t have to pray to the unseen Vic to update his TOI widgets every year.

    Great stuff.

  58. Doomoil says:

    I fully expect this Canadian Olympic team to finish out of the medals.

  59. SpotTheLoon says:

    As I have said before, I have always been a fan of Gagner. Mainly because I appreciate what he does, both on and off the ice and how he fits within the group itself. I have swung wildly between wanting to sign him and then advocating a trade as arbitration draws near. On the eve of arbitration day, I have come to the following conclusions:

    We should appreciate Gagner for the player he is and not for what he doesn’t bring to the party.

    We are buying UFA years and potential as he hasn’t clearly demonstrated what his upper ceiling is as a player.

    Balance this with the existing team salary structure and see if we can find a way to fit him in within that structure.

    Structure an offer with escalation in it. Eg). Year 1 – $4.5m, Year 2 – $5.0m, Year 3 – $5.25m, Year 4 – $5.5m, Year 5 – $5.5m. Total value over 5 years – $25.75m AVV – $5.15m.

    It keeps Gagner within the team salary structure (below Hall) and pushes the big money out far enough where one would hope that the cap would have risen significantly, allowing room to sign other players (Nuge, Yak, etc).

    If I am the Oilers, given the confines that they are faced with and the fact that there is only 24 hours left to get a deal done, this may be a possible solution that allows the team to address their concerns while also giving Gagner close to what he is seeking.

    Any thoughts on this?

  60. spoiler says:

    rickithebear: When I read shit like this i Think Holy f…….What a pathetic shot at TW.People like you are why I could not cheer for Phil..

    Gear down there, Big Rig. Nothing I said was untrue. Nor did I call Phil the best golfer. No need to get all sensitive about your fave.

  61. godot10 says:

    1) I don’t understand why does Gagner expect more than Bryan Little argument. Aren’t Sam Gagner and Bryan Little in pretty much exactly the same circumstances, heading into arbitration one year away from UFA status, with near identical salary histories (except that Gagner is 2 years younger). Little is probably asking for over $5 million in his arbitration hearing this week also. I expect both Gagner and Little to settle on the steps for one year for $4 million something. (I can find anything on the Internet that says Little has signed.)

    2) If Gagner signs a long term contract with a home town discount, he has no clue who he is giving the home town discount too (see Jeff Carter). Any no trade clause for Gagner only becomes effective next July 1, which is another reason why there has been no advantage to signing long term. If he signs, he loses control of where he plays.

    3) A one year contract is in the best interests of both the Oilers and Gagner. There will be plenty of time next May to get Gagner signed to a long term contract with a limeted no-trade and hometown discount. Gagner is not yet a guarenteed core player, so there is no need to make sure he is locked down long term until one is absolutely certain he is a core player. One more year to de-risk Gagner even more is a good thing.

  62. spoiler says:

    cabbiesmacker: A trade at the deadline would have been appropriate. Value was high and the team should have known the playoffs were a pipedream. The O’Reilly for Gagner possibles would have been a real nice solution if they existed.

    Isn’t O’Reilly untradeable till next January under the offer sheet rules? He would be ideal but I don’t think available. I also think it more likely the Avs would shop Stastny first anyways. Nor do we know if the Avs were convinced they were getting McKinnon at the deadline.

  63. Big Dan says:

    I was relieved MacT didn’t add a stupid contract to the likes of Clarkson or Filppula. Yet, there are rumors he may pay MORE for Sam Gagner – who is clearly inferior (defensively, size, etc).

    You don’t see Detroit getting all sentimental because they invested years of development in the likes of a Leino or Filppula. Or care about Gagner’s girlfriend. They draw a line in the sand and go to Plan B (Stephen Weiss, Daniel Alfredsson).

    Gagner has the UFA comparables already- Stephen Weiss and Tyler Bozak, both under $5M. If Gagner insists on anything starting with a 5… the Plan B is already out there= Mikhail Grabovski. I don’t care what hacks like Steve Simmons or Damien Cox say (they bashed the Hall contract, they said we were trying to give Gilbert away before fetching Nick Schultz); they’re pretenders. You would think Lou would be trying to pick up Grabovski/ Jagr with his newfound cap space and urgency to not have a high pick. Waiting is not a good idea.

    Sign Grabovski and take Gagner’s one year arbitration deal. Then, we have 2 centers until RNH is back. Then, deal Gagner for whatever – it won’t be much – or ride him out if we have injuries to the top six. MacT likes to have “options”.

    I thought Dustin Brown for close to $6M was ridiculous. Gagner, who is a complementary player, is even worse at over $5M. Gets us into cap trouble and drives up the asking price for the likes of RNH, Yakupov, and Schultz.

    Personally, I think David Perron is way better than Gagner and he has a fair deal at $3.8M.

    Let’s not cry over spilled milk, blame Tambo for the one year deal, blame Lowe for rushing Gagner to the NHL even though he was clearly superior to the Pouliot’s/ Schremp’s, whatever… it’s a cap world. Think ahead. Overpaying Gagner is a bad move. Find Plan B.

  64. prairieschooner says:

    I believe Tiger Woods has come from behind
    In fact that’s what got him into trouble

  65. Lowetide says:

    WHERE is my drum kit?

  66. Big Dan says:

    I forgot to mention Plan B doesn’t have to be Grabovski, if he is asking for too much or isn’t interested in Edmonton.

    Call up Jim Rutherford. Perhaps he’ll take Dillon Simpson + ? before Simpson pulls up a Riley Nash for Tuomo Ruutu. Maybe only a 40 to 50-point guy who is a little banged up but he’s gritty and physical, better than Gagner, and could be had on the cheap. Carolina is in cap hell.

    Another option is Olli Jokinen. Before I get laughed off the board like when I stated Linus Omark would have been a better signing than Ryan Jones (Omark can be moved up the lineup in case of injury, is highly motivated, and has scored something like 30 point in 60 or so NHL games)… note that I live in Calgary. I watched Jokinen improve his overall game in his few years in Calgary. He gets a bad rap.

    His offense is very hot and cold like Gagner’s but he is big and a decent 2nd line center for a couple years until a Slepsyev/ other opportunity develops. In my mind, he’s better than Gagner. Jokinen could be had on the cheap too because he had a crappy year because of injuries.

  67. SpotTheLoon says:

    Further to what I wrote above, I was playing with the salary cap in future years. One thing to remember is that the NHL said somewhere that they anticipated their revenues to come in around 70% for the shortened season in spite of the fact they only played about 60% of a full season. I recognize that the numbers I will post are speculative in nature but bear with me.

    If the cap increases by approximately 8% each year over the next two years, that would provide a cap of approximately $75 million per team in the 2015-16 season. Let’s look at the Oilers cap hits that we can for that season:

    Eberle – $6m
    Hall – $6m
    Gagner (based on my previous post) – $5.15m
    Perron – $3.8125m
    Gordon – $3m
    RNH – $6m?
    Yakupov – $6.5m?

    Justin Schultz – $5.5m
    Smid – $3.5m
    Ference – $3.25m

    Total = $48.7125m for 10 players. 64.95% of projected $75m cap
    Free Cap Space = $26.2875m

    If you look at the 2013-14 season, those same 10 players (assuming that Gagner was playing for the same $3.2m he made last year, would be $39.69m which represents 61.7% of the $64.3m team cap.

    I’m not sure about the salary figures I assumed for RNH, Yakupov and Schultz the Younger. But I believe they would at least be in the ball park. If those players were signed to long term contracts at approximately those cap hits, there is the potential that they could be value contracts going forward. Assuming the cap continues to rise at around 8% each subsequent season, the following year the cap would hit $81m. Those salary figures would then represent a 60.14% share of the total team cap, a smaller share of the cap than those players would for this upcoming season.

    I understand and appreciate that I am making some assumptions in the information above. But I don’t think that they are ridiculous ones.

    What it all boils down to is that signing Gagner for around a $5.15m cap hit over the next five years is not out of the question and shouldn’t hamper the Oilers by limiting available cap space.

    One final note on Gagner. It isn’t appropriate to say he should sign for a salary comparable to another player. Gagner is a unique circumstance in that there are only 24 hours left before an arbitration hearing. He will also be an unrestricted free agent next year if the matter goes to arbitration. In many ways, this is more akin to a UFA signing situation and comparables to other player salaries do not take this into account. It comes down to whether an agreement can be reached between the two parties on a long term deal. The situation is its own unique circumstance.

  68. prairieschooner says:

    Try the veal

  69. cabbiesmacker says:

    spoiler: Isn’t O’Reilly untradeable till next January under the offer sheet rules?He would be ideal but I don’t think available.I also think it more likely the Avs would shop Stastny first anyways. Nor do we know if the Avs were convinced they were getting McKinnon at the deadline.

    I meant prior to the Cgy offer sheet Spoils.

  70. Racki says:

    Lowetide: Well, crazy is as crazy does. If Hall doesn’t get an invite, the people running Team Canada are idiots.

    Are either of the Ovechkin’s Canadian??

  71. Kirby says:

    gogliano:
    I noted this last Gagner thread but I’ll say it again: everyone seems to assume either a one year deal or a long term contract, but I don’t think those are the two options.I think the ideal outcome for the Oilers, given the current constraints, is a two-year pact. From the Oiler’s standpoint, it makes a lot of sense: a long-term deal given Gagner’s leverage and his play last season will hamstring the team going forward without guarantee that he’ll justify the cost; the cap situation begins to get tight in two years, when Yakupov comes up for his signing; it allows the Oilers to see how much sustain Gagner’s recent spike in counting stats has; and it allows the Oilers to know the cap direction + the cost of the big 5 (J. Schultz also comes up next year) relative to the cap before throwing money at a secondary player.

    Selling Gagner on a second year might be tougher but given his arbitration request it seems doable.The team can afford to meet his salary demands if he agrees to the shorter deal and it still gives him the opportunity for a home run contract in two years.If he still resists even a two year contract then you know he is planning on hitting free agency so you deal him quick.

    It’d be nice to fold that RFA year into a long term pact but the leverage for that was lost a long time ago.A 2 year deal would give MacT a lot more freedom than a one year deal or a pricey long term deal.

    I would have to disagree with your assessment.

    A two year deal would place the Oiler’s in the exact same situation they are in now. The cap is expected to rise each year for at least the next couple seasons. A rising cap means the average salary for UFA’s increases. If Gagner simply maintains his production over the next 2 seasons, his salary demands still increase due to the increase in average salary seen over the league for UFA’s. These demands would easily push into Hall and Eberle territory, and doesn’t seem ideal unless Gagner significantly improves in point production (my base would be .8 ppg), or shores up other areas such as face-offs and defensive zone coverage while maintaining roughly a .61 ppg.

    In two years time, Gagner will still also have the hammer in contract negotiations, perhaps even larger depending on his play:

    - Super young UFA, plays top 6 minutes with point production within the top 60 centers in the league (assuming no progression in play over the next 2 seasons). Or,
    - Super young UFA, plays top six minutes with point production within the top 40 centers in the league (maybe even top 30 if he gets a big boost from his wingers – my guess being Hall and Yakupov).
    - Edmonton still won’t have significant center depth in 2 years time baring a high draft pick (top 5) or a significant trade (one of the big 5).
    - Being a UFA, Edmonton runs a bigger risk of losing an asset for absolutely nothing in an area of organizational weakness.
    - Cap increases, yet average player salary increases, which in turn means Gagner has more leverage to ask for more money.

    Honestly, unless Gagner becomes super Gagner and worthy of a “Hall Like” contract, Edmonton is in a worse situation than it is now. If Gagner stays the same, he’s worth less in a trade 2 years from now as the “potential” label diminishes each successive year he fails to progress, and increasing average salary increases Gagner’s contract demands for future years (additionally, if Edmonton dithers for too long, teams simply say “will take our chances when he becomes a UFA,” further diminishing value). If he increases only marginally, is it prudent to sign him long term at near $6 AAV – probably not.

    The only possible benefit I see for the Oiler’s in a 2 year deal is if the Oiler’s are planning to trade Gagner during the upcoming season, or Gagner “proves” he is worth “Hall Like” money. In either case, the questions become significantly more difficult to answer as time passes. Finding a way to sign him long term for reasonable to semi-reasonable money is the Oiler’s best play (my opinion), as it gives them more options and leverage in future trade negotiations or a value contract based on player progression.

    The more this topic is discussed, the more upsetting Gagner’s contract term last year becomes. Sigh, let’s hope MacT is a wizard.

  72. TheOtherJohn says:

    SpottheLoon

    “I was playing with the salary cap in future years. One thing to remember is that the NHL said somewhere that they anticipated their revenues to come in around 70% for the shortened season in spite of the fact they only played about 60% of a full season. I recognize that the numbers I will post are speculative in nature but bear with me.

    If the cap increases by approximately 8% each year over the next two years, that would provide a cap of approximately $75 million per team in the 2015-16 season.”

    “Prediction is very difficult, especially if it’s about the future”

    What if the Cap doesn’t go up 8% a year and, instead, stays flat. Paying your 6th best player $5.15m makes that contract an immoveable asset

    Re:Tambellini and Gagner’s contract: realize Tambellini is a very dominant and forceful personality but Lowe and MacT were advising him when Gagner was signed to the 1 year deal

  73. SpotTheLoon says:

    TheOtherJohn,

    I agree that there is risk in making assumptions about the future and what the salary cap will be. That said, I think one of the potentially big deals that will impact overall NHL revenue is the fact that the TV licensing agreement in Canada expires after this season. There are reports already floating around that a new deal could be worth upwards of a billion dollars. There is also likely to be a World Cup in 2015 which will also monetize international competition with the NHL and the NHLPA realizing some significant new revenue streams from the tournament.

    When you factor those two items into the equation along with the inevitable annual increase in ticket prices that most clubs pass along to their fans, I think that an annual 8% increase in the cap isn’t an overly optimistic assumption.

  74. Gerta Rauss says:

    $50 bet on Mickelson before the tourney started at 18 to 1 pays off nicely.

    I’m a bigger fan of Phil after this morning..:)…!!!

  75. Gerta Rauss says:

    Doomoil,

    Not sure if you’ve ever played links golf but it is infuriating, frustrating, and every other adjective you can think of.

    And I love every minute of it.

  76. Professor Q says:

    Lowetide: Well, crazy is as crazy does. If Hall doesn’t get an invite, the people running Team Canada are idiots.

    Eberle too!

  77. Lowetide says:

    Professor Q: Eberle too!

    Eberle less so imo, but I don’t want to cause a riot! :-)

  78. Andropod says:

    There is a very sad but true story in South Africa that involves the Malaysian descendants of people the brought to Cape Town as slaves by the Dutch in the 1700′s. These people form a vibrant community in the area around Cape Town, and many of these people could peel paint off a wall with the manner in which they could string swear words together.
    After the present government came into power, their lot did not improve as expected, which prompted one of them to say that “when the last government was in place, we were not white enough. Now with the new government, we’re not black enough”

    The relationship of this story to SamWise, is that he isn’t offensively skilled enough to unseat the Nuge, but he isn’t large or defensively skilled enough to win the necessary face-offs, and center a Stanley Cup winning 2nd line either. He really is a good, not great, 1 dimensional player, that scores inconsistently.
    As things stand I suspect Sam goes either way, and he knows that. It’s just when.

  79. Dead Cat Bounce says:

    Hopefully, the Oilers let this go to arbitration and Sam gets delivered a huge slap in the face with an award in the $4M range.

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