LOWETIDE SPECIAL: RE-DRAFT (MY LIST)

For fun, I ran my top 60 through the draft and decided to compare my list to what the Oilers did on draft day. No real value, but it’s fun to have a look back and see how things rolled out. Two things were absolutely true: the Edmonton Oilers didn’t take any risks in the top 100, and their sonar was in search of skill.

  • OILERS AT #7: DARNELL NURSE

  • LOWETIDE AT #7: VALERI NICHUSHKIN

I think these two were pretty close together on the Oiler list, and of course after the Kovalchuk incident one suspects the Oilers are breathing a little easier today. I’m not one of those people who believe there’s absolutely one and only player who should go in a range, in fact for me there were three (Ristolainen) who would have been acceptable in that range. I probably would have been okay with Bo Horvat as well at #7 but sense many fans and draft followers would have felt that was too much of a stretch.

In looking deeper into Nurse, it seems clear to me that he was likely underrated offensively due to the depth of the PP options available in SSM. I think he might explode offensively this coming season and be viewed as exceptional value one year from now.

  • OILERS AT #56: MARCO ROY

  • LOWETIDE AT #56: PAVEL BUCHNEVICH

My list shows another Russian winger (high end skill, lacks the size of Nichushkin) would have been best available but I also think it shows just how deep the draft was in 2013. Buchnevich was #34 on my list and ranked quite high on several lists (Pronman had him #17).

Roy scored well with the advanced stats (I had Michael Parkatti on the show this week and he confirmed the fancy numbers swooned over “Marco”) and will certainly be a player to watch closely this coming season. A breakout offensive season at 18 is a strong arrow for future NHL skill forwards.

  • OILERS AT #83: BOGDAN YAKIMOV

  • LOWETIDE AT #83: OLIVER BJORKSTRAND

I like the Oilers draft and Yakimov is a cool pick (plus I’m picking wingers and they had a draft that touched on several positions early)  Yakimov received kind words from Bruce McCurdy at the development camp.

Bjorkstrand is undersized but I saw him real good during the WHL playoffs. I kept thinking ‘here goes another Rattie’ and although it’s unlikely he’ll be as good as Rattie I think the Blue Jackets got an absolute gem.

  • OILERS AT #88: ANTON SLEPYSHEV

  • LOWETIDE AT #88: ANTON SLEPYSHEV

I liked him a year ago, and getting Slepyshev at #88 overall could be a draft steal five years from now. He’s signed for the forseeable future, and of course there’s always a chance we never hear from him. I do like the Oilers attempting to take advantage of the Yakupov selection and pursuing their Russian options–really for the first time in team history. I think he may end up coming over a couple of years from now in a ‘hired gun to put them over the top’ sort of way.

  • OILERS AT #94: JACKSON HOUCK

  • LOWETIDE AT #94: JUUSO IKONEN

Houck’s bio is impressive, I think he’s out of the box better than Moroz a year ago and this guy was taken 62 picks later (depends on what you value of course). A nice resume, the big gap between Houck and Moroz is footspeed and that’s certainly a consideration.

My guy Ikonen didn’t even get drafted, but he had a nice season in the SM-Liiga. I spoke to Rob Vollman about the Finnish league yestrerday, he feels the quality of the league is poor currently compared to historic standards. That may be why Ikonen passed through, but I like him plenty.

  • OILERS AT #96: KYLE PLATZER

  • LOWETIDE AT #96: GREG CHASE

I think my guy is the better prospect, but the Oilers got both of them so there you go. Platzer is a really interesting prospect but I can’t really see how he can deliver enough offense (even with the ice time) unless he has a wide range of skills. A longshot for sure. Chase is too, but his resume looks a little stronger and he certainly was good enough at 17 to get legit icetime on a good WHL club.

  • OILERS AT #113: AIDAN MUIR

  • LOWETIDE AT #113: MIRO AALTONEN

Aaltonen was 60th on my list, so it must have been a deep draft with a lot of quality. My list is basically a combination of Pronman’s, McKenzie’s and a few other items I’ve been told here and there added to my own bias for the WHL. So if the 60th guy on the list is still available at #113 that’s an indication scouts are divided and there’s a lot to like. Muir is an interesting prospect years away and my guy is a 20-year old Finn with great skill.

We’ll revisit down the line. Did you make a top 60 or mock? Let me know how your draft would have looked, always fun to compare notes.

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18 Responses to "LOWETIDE SPECIAL: RE-DRAFT (MY LIST)"

  1. Mike Modano's Dog says:

    The only guys I really wanted later were Eric Comrie or Zach Fucale in the 2nd round. Sounds like Roy was a really sound pick, though. Can’t believe the Habs took Fucale after they bypassed him just 2 picks earlier – thought he was ours for sure at that point!

  2. sliderule says:

    I only had a wish list for first three picks

    No 7 Horvat
    Went at nine to canicks so it was not as big a stretch as sme folks seemed to think.I had watched him play (on Tv ) on OHL playoffs and M cup and hadn’t seen Nurse other than you tube.Also scared off Nurse on reports some teams didn’t have in top thirty ( probably false) iHorvat will be better than Monahan or Barkov.(is that bold enough for you)

    Number 37 Zykov
    After trade was picked by Kings.Big winger with a wicked shot but I had never seen play.When Kings tried to trade in it would make me real leery as they have a very good draft record.This pick will come back to bite oiler in ass.If we had one or two more scouts covering Q we might have kept pick.

    Number 56 Hayden
    Hadn’t seen him play but he is real big and had a good u18.went at number 74 to Blackhawks

    If nurse fills out and doesn’t get hurt the oil could have a franchise player.I would like him to tone it down a little until he gets bigger.(don’t fight the goons)
    Trading put of number37 with division rival I didn’t like.

    After reading about Roy I lie that pick.Only negative didn’t play much center.

  3. OilTastic says:

    i myself am not crazy about the Platzer or Muir picks…we could have done much better, though i realize that the scouting staff likes to take chances on long shots in the later rounds. but also, i wasn’t crazy at the time to see the Oilers trade down from #37 because they just missed out on Fucale (so what is Tristan Jarry then? chopped liver?), but i realize they turned this pick and another later 2nd rounder into 5 picks they didn’t have in the 3rd and 4th rounds. (thanx a lot Tambo), so it may have turned out OK. i guess time will tell!

  4. Lowetide says:

    OilTastic:
    i myself am not crazy about the Platzer or Muir picks…we could have done much better, though i realize that the scouting staff likes to take chances on long shots in the later rounds.

    Actually, they usually take chances in the middle rounds and return to normal later. I’m a big fan of doing it this way.

  5. OilTastic says:

    ^yup, sure seems like they draft normal, then off the board, then finish normal again.

  6. Ribs says:

    Here’s my list. Not too much science to my selections. Just who I liked through my limited viewings and internet readings…

    #7 – Sean Monahan – Alternate selection – Darnell Nurse

    Hard to root against Monahan now. Dammit. Hope he busts ;) Happy with Nurse.

    #37 – Morgan Klimchuk – Alternate Selection – Shea Theodore

    Sonofa- Calgary again! bastards! Both my guys gone before this pick. Maybe I do the trade MacT did at this point. Theodore gone at 26

    #56 – William Carrier – Alternate Selection – Dillon Heatherington – *Anton Slepyshev
    * I would love to take Anton Slepyshev if he plans to come to the NHL. It looks like he has another year overseas to go but he has always impressed me.

    Carrier picked right after Roy. Hope they were right! If Carrier can translate his game to the NHL he could be something special. Heatherington was my safe selection and he was gone before this pick. Slepyshev I really didn’t think would be coming over as I couldn’t find anything saying he would. Awesome that they got him.

    #128 – Sean Malone – Alternate Selection – Hunter Garlent

    Guess I had these guys too high. Malone taken right after Oilers took Betker at #158. Garlent was not drafted. Not much info on these guys. Shots in the dark. Oilers took a shot too, it seems.

    #158 – Zachary Sanford – Alternate selection – Dominik Kubalik

    Caps took Sanford at #61. I guess I hoped he would drop. Kings took Kubalik at #191.

    #188 – Marcus Hogberg

    Picked the biggest goalie I could find that sounded okay and hoped he’d drop. Sens took him at #78.

    This was the first time I did this for all of their picks. It’s kind of fun to have something to root for during the later rounds. I look forward to seeing how I might have done a few years from now as well. Total crapshoot, but what the heck. It’s all in good fun.

  7. Numenius says:

    I’ve been thinking about the possibilities of a Hemsky trade with New Jersey. They’re severely lacking skill on RW, so I’d guess they’d be interested.

    But what gets it done?

    Maybe Hemsky for Ryan Carter (C) + 2nd + 3rd? NJ’s one area of depth is centre, so a C makes sense.

    As I look at Carter more closely, he looks better and better: (’12-’13) 44 6-9-15, FO 51.8%, He competes, hits (2nd on team), fights, and has 1-year left on contract ($775,000 cap hit). He hasn’t produced a lot offensively in his career, but he had a bit of a break out in ’11-’12 playoffs (23, 5-2-7) and that carried over into last year (.34 PPG compared with .12 in ’11-’12). His Corsi was quite good for the 3-4C role he played in ’12-’13: 9.08 CorsiON (10/18 forwards), -2.5 CorsiRel (11/18 forwards), 48.5% ZStart, 54.1% ZFinish on a non-playoff team.

    Would you do that deal (esp. if Steckel isn’t available for 1 year)? Would New Jersey?

    Would you do it if it was only Hemsky for Carter + 2nd?

    Edit: Sorry for the off topic post…

  8. jonrmcleod says:

    Lowetide,

    The way I look at it, if you’re picking in the 6th round, the “best available” players have a very slim chance of having an NHL career. Might as well take a chance on a diamond in the rough.

  9. Lowetide says:

    jonrmcleod:
    Lowetide,

    The way I look at it, if you’re picking in the 6th round, the “best available” players have a very slim chance of having an NHL career. Might as well take a chance on a diamond in the rough.

    For sure. I like the reach for talent in this draft.

  10. cc says:

    A little off topic, but how about an offer sheet for Kadri

  11. Lowetide says:

    cc:
    A little off topic, but how about an offer sheet for Kadri

    It would kill the Leafs. Make it so!!!!

  12. fifthcartel says:

    I think I saw Brunner was signing with NJD so that kills any Hemsky deal really.

  13. Dead Cat Bounce says:

    fifthcartel:
    I think I saw Brunner was signing with NJD so that kills any Hemsky deal really.

    Yes:

    http://blogs.northjersey.com/blogs/fireice/devils_pursuing_red_wings_damien_brunner/

  14. Dead Cat Bounce says:

    cc:
    A little off topic, but how about an offer sheet for Kadri

    http://www.tsn.ca/nhl/story/?id=427566

  15. Lowetide says:

    Good move by Lou.

  16. Numenius says:

    fifthcartel:
    I think I saw Brunner was signing with NJD so that kills any Hemsky deal really.

    Don’t think the deal’s done yet, but yeah, that’d probably kill it.

  17. Good-Natured Locomotive says:

    7: Nurse
    Perfect. I was ready to scream at the TV if they passed on him. Ever since I watched him play as a 16 yo at the U-18s 2 yrs ago I have hoped that one day he would be an Oiler. His attitude and intelligence match his high skill level and athleticism.

    56: Roy
    Initially I was hoping for Comrie at this point due to the complete lack of goalie depth, but after taking into account what the advanced stats and scouts have to say about Roy, as well as the utter crapshoot that is drafting goalies in the top half of the draft, I am definitely happy with this pick. Hopefully he will play more center this year after spending dev. camp as a pivot.

    83: Yakimov
    Third pick in a row that I agree with MacT/MBS on. Upside cannot be ignored, and neither can the Oilers center depth any longer.

    88: Hudson Fasching (taken @ 118 by LA)
    My first deviation from the actual draft. Although I like the risk being taken on Slepyshev and his skill cannot be questioned, I can’t get past his antics after winning the bronze and skating past Canada’s bench at the WJC this year. I know he’s just a kid, but it made me furious. On the other hand, Fasching is apparently as high character as it gets. Although the results have yet to show it, his size, skating and overall potential are too great to pass on here, where I feel the Oilers should have taken him.

    94: Houck
    GREAT pick, and was surprised he was still here for the Oilers to take.

    96: Matt Buckles (taken @ 98 by FLA)
    Power winger / center that I believe has higher upside than Platzer at this point. Will be learning from Captain McCarron at Cornell next year.

    113: Aidan Muir
    Knowing as little about him as everyone else, except hopefully MacT, I still take him here after reading up on him. Good story, intruiging talent and we didnt have to reach for him in the 1st rd like our stampeding southern neighbours did last year with Jankowski. Playing with future Oiler D man (hopefully) Kenny Morrison at WMU eventually too.

    128: Jedd Soleway (taken 193 by PHX)
    No specific issue with Campbell, but if I’m taking another Stu Special (big BCHL boy) I’m rolling the dice on the big, first-line RH center from the Vees that is attending Wisconsin next year and hoping they do as well developing forwards as they do with their D.

    158: Austin Lotz (undrafted)
    Instead of another mammoth LD in Betker, I finally take a chance on a goalie from the same team in the Dub. May be a bit small, but very athletic and competitive. Played great against Portland in the playoffs this year.

    188: Greg Chase
    With a nod to Mr. Waits, this guy is a brawler, bawler and bastard. Perfect pick, especially in the 7th.

    Apologize for the long post, but draft talk makes me happy. Cheers!

  18. DeadmanWaking says:

    Good-Natured Locomotive,

    No need to apologize for your cogent and enthusiastic remarks, unless you forgot to spray on some “me 2″ proof anti-quoting, especially around notable tics such as “antics” which is otherwise sure to set off a knuckle-tapping reflex among the harried apers.

    I personally lay on Obliquity, despite its tendency to whoosh or leven to excess, as with all thesorrybromide lacquers (that verbal stretch harks back to a self-deprecation from a post inspired by, if my mind’s eye does not deceive me, a heat-loving white plumeria; curiously–though perhaps only to me–the sub-species of plumeria are P. alba, P. pudica, and P. obtusa all of which are nightly delights of the palpitating sphinx moth). Beware, however, of procuring Obloquy by mistake, as the container looks almost identical and really should be prominently labeled “Get Off My Lawn” as this man justly complains. He couldn’t sod again for six months.

    Obliquity: Why Our Goals Are Best Achieved Indirectly

    This is a companion volume to the long-promised Obloquy: Why Our Goals Are Best Achieved. I take issue with the publisher hawking these individually and not as a complete set, lest the unwary consumer stray to the dark side of all yin and no yang.

    Since we’re now officially into the smoke ‘em season, I kind of like how the word “antics” in your post plays off your “ANTI Comrade Slepyshev” slant. ANTIC strikes me as the natural foil against SHIELD, to spell it that way once again now that we’ve replaced Joe McCarthy with Iron Man in the popular consciousness. In the Soviet post-Federov nineties it would have been ANTIQUEUE (rendered in five different fonts to prove to the world that the Russians had finally cloned their first PC). Further back into the Bond era, it would have been ANTIQ (embedding in the Roman transliteration a subtle collectivist dig). Perhaps all these agencies exist to keep M hopping as well, or the French are up to their usual tricks.

    It also occurs to me that if by some linguistic accident “trois” had come out “mois”, we’d now be counting in English “one, two, mee, four, …”. Mee’s Company would have been a dark comedy where Jack locks himself in the bathroom and never comes out (we always suspected this). All the kids these days would be speaking entirely in telegraph code and Tweets would be limited to eight characters.

    420
    32

    Purging Joe is lucky he didn’t live in the Twitter era. The cynical Doonesbury crowd would have been airing and confirming their suspicions:

    205?
    57!

    Just think where we would be now if the kids were writing “205″ instead of “OMG”. The mind boggles.

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