OILERS SIGN GORDON

More to come.

written by

The author didn‘t add any Information to his profile yet.
Related Posts

364 Responses to "OILERS SIGN GORDON"

« Older Comments
  1. cabbiesmacker says:

    Tarkus:

    Would imagine the spitballed Hemksy-for-Smith deal is now mothballed.

    MacT is still analyzing via the MBA way.

  2. Lucinius says:

    Numenius,

    Pretty much, I’d think. They still could use another top six forward, but I’m not sure if they need a RW.

  3. Магия¹º says:

    Bag of Pucks: Finally, there’s always the possibility this can end badly. Ference may get injured, start trending downward in performance, etc.

    Possibility a 34 yr old might trend downwards over 4 years? Who’d have thunk?

  4. Lucinius says:

    Yannik Weber signs with the Canucks.. 1 way deal, 650k. I have no idea on this player.

  5. spoiler says:

    cabbiesmacker: And MacT just signed him for $3.5 per. HmmmmmmmmDoes anyone know which Dictionary it is that defines BOLD as MEH? Conservative? Predictable?Unless there is significant interest in Hemsky’s $5M management looks happy with praying the kids advance.

    The sheer volume of the change is bold, or, at the very least, italic.

  6. Henry says:

    How about Hemsky for Greening?

  7. Tarkus says:

    Aaron Ward ‏@aaronward_nhl 58s

    “Yannick Weber signs 1 way deal/ Vancouver 650K”

    Obligatory “Why weren’t the Oilers in on this?” statement.

  8. Магия¹º says:

    mc79hockey ‏@mc79hockey
    Man, OTT has to be a darkhorse Cup finalist next year.

    That old Hossa to Detroit karma.

    mc79hockey ‏@mc79hockey
    And it’s a good day for Team #KeepHemsky.

  9. G Money says:

    Bag of Pucks: My reasoning has made fairly clear throughout the last few posts.
    1) Ference is a good acquisition. Overpay on term. Fills huge need.
    2) Advanced stats don’t fully quantify the value of defensive defenceman.
    3) The best teams are stocked with excellent depth and good players. Acquiring players from these teams can be a good thing – particularly if they’re hometown lads with experience and leadership.
    Finally, there’s always the possibility this can end badly. Ference may get injured, start trending downward in performance, etc. No one has the predictive performance crystal ball perfected.
    But given the choice between this and waiver wire fodder, I believe this is the much better option.

    I often find I disagree with you, but in this case, I think your reasoning here is impeccable.

  10. BONVIE says:

    FastOil,

    I was hoping St. Louis would sign a few free agents and shrink their cap room, but at the end of today the Oilers have to offer sheet Pieterangelo for 8.4 over 7 years this would change our franchise.

  11. striatic says:

    spoiler: Iggy now talking to Beantown… too funny!

    delicious irony.

  12. G Money says:

    cabbiesmacker,

    cabbiesmacker: MacT is still analyzing via the MBA way.

    Trying to figure this comment out … MacT has traded Horcoff and signed four UFAs in the last 24 hours, has outside confirmation that he’s been in on every deal imaginable for the last month … and you think he’s a victim of overanalyzing?

  13. Магия¹º says:

    striatic: delicious irony.

    Are they talking back with words longer than 4 letters? Or shorter? The over/under is definitely at 4.

  14. godot10 says:

    Gordon ssems like much less of an overpay compared to what Nystrom got.

  15. Магия¹º says:

    G Money:
    cabbiesmacker,

    Trying to figure this comment out … MacT has traded Horcoff and signed four UFAs in the last 24 hours, has outside confirmation that he’s been in on every deal imaginable for the last month … and you think he’s a victim of overanalyzing?

    I’d guess analyzing in finite time is somewhere in that MBA. He promised lots of moves and sounded dubious about the value in the biggest whale hunt contracts. So he’s done OK. AF is 2 years too long but perhaps he’s figure out he’ll get more than zero if he needs to flip the last 2 years.

    Ryan Rishaug ‏@TSNRyanRishaug Oilers were in the mix on Nystrom, kicked tires.

    NHL on TSN ‏@NHLonTSN Predators sign Eric Nystrom to a 4 year, $10 million deal. #TSN #NHL

  16. Bag of Pucks says:

    Lost out on Nystrom to the Preds.

  17. Lucinius says:

    godot10,

    Oilers overpaid on Gordon and Ference, but both were normal over-pays, imo. They were to be expected and in-line with what those players were going to get regardless of where they went. To me that’s a good sign. Term on Ference is a little worrying, but I think that’s what finished the deal for Ference; wife and kids.. you tend to want more term.

    All in all.. Oilers had a good day so far. Missed out on a few players I wanted.. but those players seemed intent on going East, or staying in the East. There’s nothing the Oilers can do about that.

  18. Lucinius says:

    Hamonic to the Isles; 7 years, 27 million.

    Hm.

    Too many years, definitely.

  19. Bag of Pucks says:

    G Money: I often find I disagree with you, but in this case, I think your reasoning here is impeccable.

    But you excised the best one! lol

  20. BONVIE says:

    Lucinius,

    I disagree I think this is a great signing he’s a young guy he’s in his prime through the entire contact and only 4 per.

  21. Woodguy says:

    Lucinius:
    Hamonic to the Isles; 7 years, 27 million.

    Hm.

    Too many years, definitely.

    Hamonic was a NYI RFA.

    He’s only 22 and took on the toughs last year with Andrew McDonald.

    I think that’s a value contract for 5+ years.

    Good job by Snow.

  22. Lucinius says:

    Woodguy,

    I don’t know the player. Didn’t even know he’d been with the Isles! I don’t watch that team. I’m just not a fan of giving long term to anything but corner-stones.

  23. Henry says:

    Snow may be making the next little team that could.

  24. BONVIE says:

    Lucinius,

    He would be our number one Defense he is a cornerstone!

  25. spoiler says:

    FPB:

    According to LeBrun,Habs trade pending.

  26. Магия¹º says:

    Lucinius,

    They’ve had him for 3 years. 7 years tells you they see him as a top pair cornerstone. They better be mostly right about his trajectory. But at that number they have a lot of upside to go with the downside. The Clarkson and Horton 7 year deals are typical downside risks.

  27. Tarkus says:

    spoiler:
    FPB:

    According to LeBrun,Habs trade pending.

    Canadiens Montréal ‏@CanadiensMTL 2m

    “Canadiens acquire George Parros from Florida, in exchange for Philippe Lefebvre and a 7th round pick in 2014.”

  28. Dominoiler says:

    Come on, no ‘where were the oilers in the b. Ryan trade talks’ comments?!.. I wanna shake my head again.. seriously tho, where were they!.. hehe

  29. Магия¹º says:

    Is Tambi consulting for Feaster today? Big move so far is trading a 5th for Kris Russell who was available on waivers yesterday.

  30. Lucinius says:

    Darren Dreger ‏@DarrenDreger 3m

    Hurricanes sign Anton Khudobin, 1 year, $800,000.

    Was hoping the Oilers would have gotten him instead of Labarbera.

    As for Hamonic.. I freely admit I could be out in the woods (with the bears!) on it, but.. I don’t know.

    I think it’ll either end up being a fantastic contract.. or a slightly bad one, at worst, due to term. I think those will be the only options, so probably a good bet?

  31. FastOil says:

    @Real_ESPNLeBrun: Hear that the Habs are close to trading for some toughness…

    I’ll call it – Brown for Paccioretty

  32. FastOil says:

    Or not – youse guys are posting too fast

  33. Professor Q says:

    FastOil,

    I thought they just got Parros?

  34. Spydyr says:

    Dominoiler,

    Dominoiler:
    Come on, no ‘where were the oilers in the b. Ryan trade talks’ comments?!.. I wanna shake my head again.. seriously tho, where were they!.. hehe

    Not sure if the Ducks would want to trade him in their division.

  35. uni says:

    striatic,

    If Iggy was serious about a cup, he should sign with Chicago for 1 million 1 year.

  36. Professor Q says:

    So…Hall as Captain? Yakupov as #10? Hemsky traded? Iginla signed? I wonder what is next…

  37. Spydyr says:

    Lucinius,

    Darren Dreger ‏@DarrenDreger 3m

    Hurricanes sign Anton Khudobin, 1 year, $800,000.

    Was hoping the Oilers would have gotten him instead of Labarbera.

    Could not agree more.

  38. Professor Q says:

    FastOil,

    I know what you mean…

  39. FPB94 says:

    Why do you guys want to trade hemsky for Zack SMith what the hell? Are you being all sarcastic or did I miss something?

  40. FastOil says:

    Professor Q:
    FastOil,

    I thought they just got Parros?

    I was kidding and as I typed they did get Parros.

  41. stevezie says:

    Yesterday: Man I’m glad we have all this cap space to overpay the UFAs we need.
    Today: Man, we got the UFAs we need, but I’m pretty pissed we overpaid them.

  42. uni says:

    FPB94,

    I hope they are being sarcastic, cause that trade makes absofrickinglutely no sense to me either.

    I hear you with the Briere signing, but it’s short term at 2 years. I’m terrified of what Subban might ask for after Bergevin hard balled him.

  43. Магия¹º says:

    Professor Q: Yakupov as #10?

    All in on that one. (Магия10 is the Russian syndication of the Power of Ten)

    -НИНТЕНДО⁶⁴

  44. jb says:

    FPB94,

    FPB94:
    Why do you guys want to trade hemsky for Zack SMith what the hell? Are you being all sarcastic or did I miss something?

    They’re serious… I still don’t understand.

  45. uni says:

    So any word on Grabovski? Can’t find a single thing about him, and the Oilers desperately could use him pivoting the 2nd line.

  46. Lucinius says:

    Apparently Clarkson got an offer for more money then what he got in Toronto (according to LeBrun). GMs be CRRRAAAAAAAAZZY.

  47. Магия¹º says:

    stevezie:
    Yesterday: Man I’m glad we have all this cap space to overpay the UFAs we need.
    Today: Man, we got the UFAs we need, but I’m pretty pissed we overpaid them.

    Today: I’m mildly surprised the overpays are minor and only one term is dodgy.

  48. oilswell says:

    Keith’s boy. Need Jeff t to add to the Simpson and musil collection.

  49. Магия¹º says:

    Lucinius:
    Apparently Clarkson got an offer for more money then what he got in Toronto (according to LeBrun). GMs be CRRRAAAAAAAAZZY.

    LeBrun wants us to believe someone passed on waivers to offer more today? Surely not even Feaster would actually do that?

    So I’ll discount this old saw as well:

    Pierre LeBrun ‏@Real_ESPNLeBrun
    David Clarkson signed a big deal in Toronto but I can tell you he left money on the table elsewhere…

  50. russ99 says:

    With that Ryan trade and all the good FAs pretty much snatched up, I wonder at what point would MacT hold onto Hemsky, at least until the deadline…

  51. FPB94 says:

    uni,

    Letang Money most probably.

  52. Магия¹º says:

    russ99:
    With that Ryan trade and all the good FAs pretty much snatched up, I wonder at what point would MacT hold onto Hemsky, at least until the deadline…

    TSN rated skaters left:

    7 Jarome Iginla, PIT 36 RW 44 14 19 33
    11 Mikhail Grabovski, TOR 29 C 48 9 7 15
    12 Derek Roy, VAN 30 C 46 7 21 28
    15 Damien Brunner, DET 27 RW 44 12 14 26
    16 Mason Raymond, VAN 27 LW 46 10 12 22
    17 Michael Ryder, MTL 33 RW 46 16 19 35
    18 Brad Boyes, NYI 31 RW 48 10 25 35
    21 Dan Cleary, DET 34 LW 48 9 6 15
    22 Matt Cooke, PIT 34 LW 48 8 13 21

    Decent offers the next few days or he’s playing this year.

  53. Tarkus says:

    Bob McKenzie ‏@TSNBobMcKenzie 3m

    “Jeff Schultz to LAK, one year, $700K.”

    And so ends the dream of the Schultz troika.

    Meanwhile, on the Left Coast, the Canucks make a splash by signing Brad Richards…on. Which is to say:

    Pierre LeBrun ‏@Real_ESPNLeBrun 12s

    Canucks announce signing of C Brad Richardson

  54. spoiler says:

    I can’t believe that Duthie is calling into question Alfie’s legacy with Ottawa.

  55. spoiler says:

    Boston, LA talking to Penner per Rishaug twit.

  56. Магия¹º says:

    spoiler:
    Boston, LA talking to Penner per Rishaug twit.

    tweet? or is that a personal comment?

  57. spoiler says:

    Магия¹º: TSN rated skaters left:

    7Jarome Iginla, PIT36RW44141933
    11Mikhail Grabovski, TOR29C489715
    12Derek Roy, VAN30C4672128
    15Damien Brunner, DET27RW44121426
    16Mason Raymond, VAN27LW46101222
    17Michael Ryder, MTL33RW46161935
    18Brad Boyes, NYI31RW48102535
    21Dan Cleary, DET34LW489615
    22Matt Cooke, PIT34LW4881321

    Decent offers the next few days or he’s playing this year.

    Raymond will end up in Calgary… just a matter of agreeing on terms, is my guess.

  58. FPB94 says:

    spoiler,

    I can’t believe he left OTT. Considering they were on the rise.

  59. spoiler says:

    FPB94:
    spoiler,

    I can’t believe he left OTT. Considering they were on the rise.

    Sure, I was shocked too, but I can’t see hating the player… Lafleur, Smyth, Sundin… can’t think of anyone being hated for wanting to play with his buddies, after giving 18 years of his life to a city.

  60. Магия¹º says:

    FPB94:
    spoiler,

    I can’t believe he left OTT. Considering they were on the rise.

    Hossa left Pens for Wings.

    Karma would be the Wings choking a 3-0 series lead.
    Probably not. They have too much depth.

  61. wordbird says:

    Edmonton Oilers ‏@EdmontonOilers 2m
    #Oilers have agreed to terms with LW Ryan Hamilton on a two-year deal.

  62. Магия¹º says:

    wordbird: Ryan Hamilton

    Another Marlie. 2 way?

    Ryan Rishaug ‏@TSNRyanRishaug
    Hamilton known well by Dallas Eakins, hard working bottom six forward.

  63. striatic says:

    wordbird: Edmonton Oilers ‏@EdmontonOilers 2m
    #Oilers have agreed to terms with LW Ryan Hamilton on a two-year deal.

    excellent depth signing.

    wasn’t too thrilled about Will Acton on the “lets sign Marlies” front, but this guy looks much better.

  64. spoiler says:

    Well, our Ryan quotient was getting dangerously low.

  65. striatic says:

    Hamilton last year with the Marlies: 56GP 30G 18A 48P 31PIM

    6″2′ 219lbs – certainly is going to challenge for the 4th line LW slot.

  66. striatic says:

    btw, where the hell is LT?

  67. Tarkus says:

    spoiler:
    Well, our Ryan quotient was getting dangerously low.

    Bonus: We’ve also doubled our Hamilton quotient!

  68. Woodguy says:

    Hamilton and Joensuu are bottom 6 LW.

    I think Paajarvi might be on his way out of town.

    Wonder if Smytty gets pushed to retire.

    Hamilton might be for the Barons, but not sure.

  69. spoiler says:

    Woodguy:
    Hamilton and Joensuu are bottom 6 LW.

    I think Paajarvi might be on his way out of town.

    Wonder if Smytty gets pushed to retire.

    Hamilton might be for the Barons, but not sure.

    Twit says two way deal.

  70. Lucinius says:

    Woodguy,

    Paajarvi can also play the RW so its also possible they’re swapping him to RW and moving Hemsky out.

  71. striatic says:

    Woodguy: Hamilton might be for the Barons, but not sure.

    i’m pretty sure he is OKC bound but he provides very good insurance in case PRV is moved or Smyth retires or gets injured.

  72. PaperDesigner says:

    Woodguy:
    Hamilton and Joensuu are bottom 6 LW.

    I think Paajarvi might be on his way out of town.

    Wonder if Smytty gets pushed to retire.

    Hamilton might be for the Barons, but not sure.

    That assumes they both make the team, which is far from a certain thing!

    I think you can certainly have Paajarvi slot on the right side. I’ve heard tell it might be his natural position anyway. But what’s more… Paajarvi is currently the second line LW, until another move is made.

  73. RexLibris says:

    Woodguy:
    Hamilton and Joensuu are bottom 6 LW.

    I think Paajarvi might be on his way out of town.

    Wonder if Smytty gets pushed to retire.

    Hamilton might be for the Barons, but not sure.

    Don’t look now, but I think Ryan Hamilton just ate Curtis Hamilton’s lunch.

    I know they aren’t challenging for the same job right now, but I think MacTavish is less than enamoured with the younger Hamilton at this point.

  74. BONVIE says:

    striatic,

    I liked both signings since our Hamilton and Pitlick have been slow to develop we need these two guys for depth for injury callups and to challenge for those fourth line jobs. Ryan Hamilton could push for a spot on the Oilers and could be that Clarckson like find.

  75. Магия¹º says:

    Just to note Feaster had a reason for his big move of the day:

    JermainFranklin ‏@TSNJFranklin Feaster said it was a sign and trade for Russell because the #Flames had no interest in an arbitration case… would’ve happened if claimed.

  76. bookje says:

    Bag of Puck – Steve Smith

    Great discussion. Let me step in. First, congratulations to Steve Smith for holding back on a number of grammatical attacks on Back of Pucks. His frequent use of ‘Cos’ instead of because must have been tremendously hard for you to ignore. Well done Steve.

    Second, BoP, all of those things you mention, from clearing the net to sacrificing oneself to clear the puck out of the zone impact corsi. Can you explain how corsi does not measure defensive defensemen well (I mean in a way that makes sense this time)?

    Third, Claude Julian, Claude Julian Claude Julian. If Claude Julian thinks Ference is so great, then why doesn’t he play him against top competition instead of putting him out for the soft parade?

  77. Melman says:

    “Don’t look now, but I think Ryan Hamilton just ate Curtis Hamilton’s lunch.”

    You mean he just ate a Curtis Hamilton / Ryan Martindale sandwich!

  78. striatic says:

    BONVIE: Ryan Hamilton could push for a spot on the Oilers and could be that Clarckson like find.

    sure, a fine explanation for why the Hamilton signing is good, but i just don’t see Acton the same way.

    neither signing hurts the organization though, so who cares? : )

  79. Melman says:

    Interesting that the Wings signed Weiss for basically the same $ that Filpulla signed for in TB.

  80. Magnus says:

    Don’t see Hamilton as more than an AHL signing,

  81. rickithebear says:

    I like that joensuu scored at a better rate than
    M. Granlund
    Orielly
    j. Skinner
    Abdelkador
    J. Benn
    Stahlberg
    landeskog
    Kruger
    at the 2012 WHC.
    Might be were MacT saw him good!

  82. In the Grease says:

    Did anyone else see that Curtis Hamilton was actually traded to Dallas in the Horcoff deal?

    http://www.tsn.ca/nhl/transactions/

    Haven’t seen anyone mention it other than it being listed there….. unless I missed it, in which case I apologize…

  83. bookje says:

    In the Grease,

    This was discussed, but someone noted it was in error. However, it could be correct.

  84. In the Grease says:

    Ah ok thanks… will be interested to get final confirmation…

  85. rickithebear says:

    bookje:
    Bag of Puck – Steve Smith

    Great discussion.Let me step in.First, congratulations to Steve Smith for holding back on a number of grammatical attacks on Back of Pucks.His frequent use of ‘Cos’ instead of because must have been tremendously hard for you to ignore.Well done Steve.

    Second, BoP, all of those things you mention, from clearing the net to sacrificing oneself to clear the puck out of the zone impact corsi.Can you explain how corsi does not measure defensive defensemen well (I mean in a way that makes sense this time)?

    Third, Claude Julian, Claude Julian Claude Julian.If Claude Julian thinks Ference is so great, then why doesn’t he play him against top competition instead of putting him out for the soft parade?

    Bag of Pucks:

    Nice spelling!
    I do believe on this forum that makes it a dialect and spelling style.
    Sorry flks you must be using a diffrent dialect when correcting our spelling!
    you think your dialect is better than mine!
    kind of makes you an elit………………..ck.
    I say the the spelling freaks on here need to indicate which dialect of english they are using for the correction.

    I will stck wth mne

  86. Profit says:

    In the Grease,

    OKC says he wasn’t included:

    Oklahoma City Barons ‏@OKC_Barons 6h
    Hold the phones. Curtis Hamilton not part of Horcoff trade to DAL. Trade is Horcoff for Philip Larsen & Draft Pick. http://ow.ly/mGR4J

  87. hags9k says:

    bookje,

    Third man in penalty on Bookje.

  88. In the Grease says:

    Thanks Profit…. weird how TSN would list it, wonder how that mistake happens?

    It actually seemed quite feasible as a house-cleaning move… especially in light of the new (probable) AHL level signings

  89. bookje says:

    rickithebear: Bag of Pucks:

    Nice spelling!
    I do believe on this forum that makes it a dialect and spelling style.
    Sorry flks you must be using a diffrent dialect when correcting our spelling!
    you think your dialect is better than mine!
    kind of makes you an elit………………..ck.
    I say the the spelling freaks on here need to indicate which dialect of englishthey are using for the correction.

    I will stck wth mne

    RBear – I have to admit, after being an early critic of your dialect, I have come to appreciate it. I think it adds diversity to the blog. It’s kind of balances the ‘force’ with Steve Smith around.

  90. Магия¹º says:

    rickithebear: I will stck wth mne

    The rind in spine fills manely on the plane.
    Me thinks he’s got it.

  91. Profit says:

    In the Grease,

    It was actually in the first press release put out by the Oilers. Then a couple minutes later it was changed to show only Horcoff.

    Likely had him on the table and DAL said we won’t take him and the staffer putting out the press release didn’t get the memo.

    TSN probably grabbed the first release info and then when things got crazy, they never updated it.

  92. Магия¹º says:

    Profit: Likely had him on the table and DAL said we won’t take him

    Does that seem likely? I’d guess there were some other changes in the version with Hamilton.

  93. Lois Lowe says:

    After hearing the Ference interview and the GM’s views on “character” I think it is safe to say that Grabovski will not be coming to Edmonton.

  94. Магия¹º says:

    Lois Lowe:
    After hearing the Ference interview and the GM’s views on “character” I think it is safe to say that Grabovski will not be coming to Edmonton.

    Souray would be surprised if he did.

  95. Bag of Pucks says:

    bookje:
    Bag of Puck – Steve Smith

    Great discussion.Let me step in.First, congratulations to Steve Smith for holding back on a number of grammatical attacks on Back of Pucks.His frequent use of ‘Cos’ instead of because must have been tremendously hard for you to ignore.Well done Steve.

    What, no props for my my admirable restraint in ignoring SS’s condescending prat demeanor?

    Second, BoP, all of those things you mention, from clearing the net to sacrificing oneself to clear the puck out of the zone impact corsi. Can you explain how corsi does not measure defensive defensemen well (I mean in a way that makes sense this time)?

    Does not measure shot quality or impact of defenseman on same. Sv pct a poor proxy.

    If Dman A forces a winger to take 8 shots from the outside and DmanB 3 shots from the slot, 2 of which are goals. Dman B is not > Dman A

    Third, Claude Julian, Claude Julian Claude Julian.If Claude Julian thinks Ference is so great, then why doesn’t he play him against top competition instead of putting him out for the soft parade?

    Cos, cos, cos.

    He’s got Chara, Seidenberg and Boychuk on his team? Playing the soft parade in Boston doesn’t mean you’re a weak defenceman. It means you’re part of a dominant defensive corps. Seriously, your best argument is to try and penalize Ference for being a good player on a great team?

  96. striatic says:

    ok so seriously where is LT?

  97. spoiler says:

    I’m guessing the Jets won’t re-sign Antropov and are looking at Grabo.

  98. spoiler says:

    striatic: ok so seriously where is LT?

    The Oilers have given him a lot of work to do.

    Although I too could use another “More to come!”.

  99. RMGS says:

    Lois Lowe:
    After hearing the Ference interview and the GM’s views on “character” I think it is safe to say that Grabovski will not be coming to Edmonton.

    I suspect as much, which means a lack of centre depth, again. Can we call it a tradition, yet?

  100. hags9k says:

    Lois Lowe,

    I agree. There’s no way we are bringing that guy here given all MacT’s talk about bringing the right character into the room.

  101. rickithebear says:

    Магия¹º: The rind in spine fills manely on the plane.
    Me thinks he’s got it.

    EHMEN!

  102. Jon K says:

    Bag of Pucks: What, no props for my my admirable restraint in ignoring SS’s condescending prat demeanor?

    Does not measure shot quality or impact of defenseman on same. Sv pct a poor proxy.

    If Dman A forces a winger to take 8 shots from the outside and DmanB 3 shots from the slot, 2 of which are goals. Dman B is not > Dman A

    Cos, cos, cos.

    He’s got Chara, Seidenberg and Boychuk on his team? Playing the soft parade in Boston doesn’t mean you’re a weak defenceman. It means you’re part of a dominant defensive corps. Seriously, your best argument is to try and penalize Ference for being a good player on a great team?

    No, but playing the soft parade and not producing good results is a poor sign. It’s an especially poor sign when we are paying him to play a top 4 role here, likely against tougher opposition.

    Everyone here will be ecstatic if Ference comes in and posts good numbers playing fair competition for his salary. However, looking at the last three years, we can make an educated guess that we are not likely to see that. You’re entitled to think otherwise, but your arguments are unlikely to persuade anyone who has looked at Ference’s underlying numbers.

    Friendly tip: People here have been pretty cordial to you here so far, but if you insist on putting zero weight on analytics and calling one of the more frequent and popular posters a “prat” you’re unlikely to receive much favour. This comes from someone who has been on the giving and receiving end of ugliness on this particular blog.

  103. Jordan says:

    striatic:
    ok so seriously where is LT?

    He’s having a beer with Louise, trying to figure out what the hell he’s going to do now that the GM is trying to bring balance back to the Oilers, and making smart bets.

    His audience has been built around pointing out the smart thing and then shuddering when the wrong thing (or nothing) is done about it.

    Either that or he’s feeding messages to MacT about what the next right move is.

    But seriously – he’s drinking in celebration somewhere.

    Book it.

  104. Woodguy says:

    MacT presser: “Very disappointed that he didn’t get Clarkson, thought he was an Oiler”

    I think Nonis saved MacT from an anchor contract.

  105. Captain Happy says:

    Woodguy:
    MacT presser: “Very disappointed that he didn’t get Clarkson, thought he was an Oiler”

    I think Nonis saved MacT from an anchor contract.

    Derek Zona ‏@DerekZona 2m

    Holy crap. RT @Hope_Smoke: Mckenzie “Edmonton offered Clarkson considerably more money than he took from the Leafs”
    Expand

  106. Woodguy says:

    Mckenzie “Edmonton offered Clarkson considerably more money than he took from the Leafs”

    Dodged a huge bullet.

  107. RMGS says:

    Woodguy:
    MacT presser: “Very disappointed that he didn’t get Clarkson, thought he was an Oiler”

    I think Nonis saved MacT from an anchor contract.

    Ok. This worries me.

  108. Lois Lowe says:

    Let’s just hope that Clarkson chose term over dollars. Either that or his wife was not super stoked on Edmonton. Yorkville shopping is a lot better than West Ed.

  109. Lucinius says:

    Captain Happy,

    Thank god for Clarkson saving us from our own GM, then.

    Based on wording, I’d assume we offered 6 mil. Ludicrous.

  110. Jon K says:

    Clarkson is a Toronto native, so that might have something to do with it. He’s also going to have less competition for icetime on the wing in Toronto, one would think. Maybe we offered more money but less term?

    In the end it’s kind of moot. We should just be glad we won’t be wondering what to do with his contract in four years.

  111. VOR says:

    bookje:

    The question is does corsi matter for any D

    Using BehindtheNet’s (Gabe’s data) what I have done is broken the D who played regularly in each of 2009-10, 2010-11, and 2011-12 in to roughly groups of 15 based on Relative Corsi. I have compared that to Goals for and Against on for 60 and of course Goal differential on for 60. Their is a correlation but it is, as you can see with the naked eye, weak through the middle of the range and more pronounced in the top and bottom 15 but even that isn’t consistently the case. I don’t think corsi of any kind is very useful in predicting the bottom line impact of D men on a team’s success.

    Year Position Ranking RC GFO/60 GAO/60 GD0/60
    Avg Avg Avg Avg

    2009-2010 Defence
    1 to 15 11.31 2.61 2.3 0.31
    16 to 30 7.46 2.5 2.33 0.16
    31 to 45 4.91 2.64 2.44 0.21
    46 to 60 3.37 2.63 2.43 0.21
    61 to 75 1.25 2.56 2.47 0.09
    76 to 90 -1.45 2.63 2.42 0.21
    91 to 105 -3.13 2.35 2.33 0.03
    106 to 120-4.84 2.31 2.32 -0.01
    121 to 136-6.7 2.43 2.45 -0.02
    137 to 152-11.24 2.3 2.64 -0.34

    Year Position Ranking RC GFO/60 GAO/60 GD0/60

    2010-2011 Defence
    1 to 15 11.30 2.93 2.30 0.63

    16 to 30 7.53 2.57 2.54 0.03

    31 to 45 5.43 2.50 2.36 0.14

    46 to 60 3.01 2.58 2.40 0.18

    61 to 75 0.82 2.44 2.41 0.03

    76 to 90 -1.04 2.36 2.45 -0.08

    91 to 105 -3.52 2.26 2.31 -0.05

    106 to 120-6.19 2.39 2.38 0.02
    121 to 136-8.67 2.02 2.43 -0.41
    137 to 152-12.73 2.33 2.40 -0.08

    Year Position Ranking RC GFO/60 GAO/60 GD0/60

    2011-2012 Defence

    1 to 15 11.00 2.56 2.39 0.17
    16 to 30 7.51 2.58 2.34 0.24
    31 to 45 4.53 2.44 2.36 0.08
    46 to 60 2.33 2.51 2.44 0.07
    61 to 75 0.71 2.27 2.40 -0.13
    76 to 90 -1.29 2.36 2.41 -0.05
    91 to 105 -3.44 2.30 2.47 -0.17
    106 to 120-6.95 2.25 2.58 -0.33
    121 to 136-9.77 2.37 2.28 0.09
    137 to 152-15.14 1.93 2.17 -0.24

  112. FPB94 says:

    Nylander now Clarkson. EDM’s management’s best friends are player’s wives.

  113. denny33 says:

    G Money,

    Don’t understand. So many jokes about how many 3rd pairing Dman we had here last year and we – get another one?

    I like intangibles as much, probably more, than the next guy – but you have to skate in the new NHL.

    This will be a replacement for Whitney’s footspeed….

    I thought Ference was brutally slow – LAST YEAR.

    Are people assuming his footspeed with get better his he pushed 40?

  114. G Money says:

    Bag of Pucks: Cos, cos, cos.
    He’s got Chara, Seidenberg and Boychuk on his team? Playing the soft parade in Boston doesn’t mean you’re a weak defenceman. It means you’re part of a dominant defensive corps. Seriously, your best argument is to try and penalize Ference for being a good player on a great team?

    Precisely!

    This is why I agree with you…

    I am huge believer in the value of advanced statistics. They are an excellent way of delving into the calibre of a player beyond ‘seen him good’ and boxcars. Because we can see so few games and remember so few circumstances surrounding the events of that game, fancy stats provide an objective check on our visual assessments of players, which are otherwise hopelessly limited in scope and objectivity.

    But assessing a player based only on fancy stats is as naive and foolish as basing them on a handful of viewings of the player in a game.

    The ‘visuals’ on Ference are:
    - his positioning is solid
    - he’s a tough little bugger and brings game every night
    - he’s played 760 NHL games
    - he’s a top 4 defender on a very good defensive corps on a very good team

    Debate if you will the contract $, or length, or whether the risk is too high because of his age.

    But I am not sure why it is even up for debate as to whether he’s “good” or not. He is.

  115. Bag of Pucks says:

    Jon K: No, but playing the soft parade and not producing good results is a poor sign. It’s an especially poor sign when we are paying him to play a top 4 role here, likely against tougher opposition.

    I would imagine the Oilers are only wanting 1 year of Top 4 duty out of Ference while the young D prospects are still learning on the job. I would think long-term that Nurse, Klefbom, and Schultz Jr project as the Top 3 with either Gernat/Marincin or another FA in that 4th slot by the final two years of this contract. No?

    And where did I say that I place zero weight on analytics? Just because I don’t see the current metrics available as bulletproof in their ability to quantify all the hypotheses that users are asking them to, doesn’t mean I don’t see value in their application or analysis.

    Personally, some of my favorite posters on the site are those who endorse and use advanced stats, but do so with a healthy does of humility and realism in terms of what they can and can’t do. They are the ones really speeding adoption of same with us newbies, and I don’t think it’s any coincidence that these same folks are the ones finding a wider audience with their viewpoints.

    Steve Smith IS condescending IMHO and I don’t think it always enhances the conversation. I respectfully rescind the ‘prat’ comment as uncalled for.

  116. spoiler says:

    VOR: bookje:The question is does corsi matter for any DUsing BehindtheNet’s (Gabe’s data) what I have done is broken the D who played regularly in each of 2009-10, 2010-11, and 2011-12 in to roughly groups of 15 based on Relative Corsi. I have compared that to Goals for and Against on for 60 and of course Goal differential on for 60. Their is a correlation but it is, as you can see with the naked eye, weak through the middle of the range and more pronounced in the top and bottom 15 but even that isn’t consistently the case. I don’t think corsi of any kind is very useful in predicting the bottom line impact of D men on a team’s success. Year Position Ranking RC GFO/60 GAO/60 GD0/60Avg Avg Avg Avg2009-2010 Defence1 to 15 11.31 2.61 2.3 0.3116 to 30 7.46 2.5 2.33 0.1631 to 45 4.91 2.64 2.44 0.2146 to 60 3.37 2.63 2.43 0.2161 to 75 1.25 2.56 2.47 0.0976 to 90 -1.45 2.63 2.42 0.2191 to 105 -3.13 2.35 2.33 0.03106 to 120-4.84 2.31 2.32 -0.01121 to 136-6.7 2.43 2.45 -0.02137 to 152-11.24 2.3 2.64 -0.34Year Position Ranking RC GFO/60 GAO/60 GD0/602010-2011 Defence1 to 15 11.30 2.93 2.30 0.6316 to 30 7.53 2.57 2.54 0.0331 to 45 5.43 2.50 2.36 0.1446 to 60 3.01 2.58 2.40 0.1861 to 75 0.82 2.44 2.41 0.0376 to 90 -1.04 2.36 2.45 -0.0891 to 105 -3.52 2.26 2.31 -0.05106 to 120-6.19 2.39 2.38 0.02121 to 136-8.67 2.02 2.43 -0.41137 to 152-12.73 2.33 2.40 -0.08Year Position Ranking RC GFO/60 GAO/60 GD0/602011-2012 Defence1 to 15 11.00 2.56 2.39 0.1716 to 30 7.51 2.58 2.34 0.2431 to 45 4.53 2.44 2.36 0.0846 to 60 2.33 2.51 2.44 0.0761 to 75 0.71 2.27 2.40 -0.1376 to 90 -1.29 2.36 2.41 -0.0591 to 105 -3.44 2.30 2.47 -0.17106 to 120-6.95 2.25 2.58 -0.33121 to 136-9.77 2.37 2.28 0.09137 to 152-15.14 1.93 2.17 -0.24

    Out, out, damn stat!

  117. VOR says:

    Sorry that came out very different than it looked on my screen. Hopefully the point is still clear. I took average values for Relative Corsi, Goals For On for 60, Goals Against On for 60 and Goal Differential on for 60 using sets of 15 D men in descending rank in Relative Corsi.

  118. Captain Happy says:

    Bob McKenzie ‏@TSNBobMcKenzie 1m

    Max Lapierre’s deal with STL is for two years and a total of $2.2M.
    Expand

  119. Gerta Rauss says:

    Bag of Pucks:

    Steve Smith IS condescending

    That’s his most endearing quality as far as I’m concerned..:)

  120. G Money says:

    denny33:
    G Money,

    Don’t understand. So many jokes about how many 3rd pairing Dman we had here last year and we – get another one?

    I like intangibles as much, probably more, than the next guy – but you have to skate in the new NHL.

    This will be a replacement for Whitney’s footspeed….

    I thought Ference was brutally slow– LAST YEAR.

    Are people assuming his footspeed with get better his he pushed 40?

    C’mon man!

    Whitney was 6D here. Ference was 4D in Boston. (Ironic that they are in their opposite home towns).

    Whitney was an offensive defenseman who could put up points, Ference is a defensive defensman who won’t – but Ference has been a + player most of his career, and Whitney a – player more often than not.

    You’re telling me Ference is 6D here?
    You really believe that Ference is NOT an upgrade to our sh*t D corps?

  121. spoiler says:

    LeBrun twit: Blackhawks talking to Khabibulin.

  122. VOR says:

    By some statistical tests the differences between sets of 15 D is statistically significant and by others it isn’t. A scatter plot makes it even clearer that relative corsi isn’t very helpful as a predictor of on ice outcomes and thus probably not a good way to rate D men. That isn’t to say it doesn’t work for forwards because it does, and spectacularly which suggests corsi may need some fine tuning for use with D.

  123. G Money says:

    Captain Happy:
    Bob McKenzie ‏@TSNBobMcKenzie 1m

    Max Lapierre’s deal with STL is for two years and a total of $2.2M.
    Expand

    GD IT!!!

  124. hags9k says:

    G Money,

    I agree with you. A player’s ultimate evaluation is not how his sledgehammer bubble looks, (love these graphs) but whether his team is winning important hockey games with them. He’s won a cup and was a key defender during this pennant run. I’m happy with this player although the term probably should have been just 3…And since we are not in serious cap trouble I don’t know why we can’t pay him top 4 money and play him 3rd pairing. The sky won’t fall.

  125. russ99 says:

    VOR,

    With Goals Against On for 60 the only good metric for defenseman who don’t move the puck, don’t take a lot of shots or aren’t heavily involved in the offense.

  126. spoiler says:

    Another intersting twit from LeBrun:

    Morrow camp patiently taking calls… wants to play on a contender. Played with a split knee cap in playoffs which hurt his productivity

    Would you want Morrow in the bottom 6 if he will sign for reasonable $s?

  127. striatic says:

    G Money: GD IT!!!

    why on earth would the Oilers want Lapierre?

  128. commonfan14 says:

    I’m also concerned about the Ferrence contract, but for those here tearing it to pieces and heaping scorn on all the idiot MSM people who like it, here is a little recent context:

    http://lowetide.ca/blog/2012/02/hemsky.html#comments

    The absolutely unanimous joy over Hemmer’s “value” deal and the mocking dismissal of the media “experts” who hated it is quite amazing to read in hindsight.

  129. G Money says:

    VOR:
    By some statistical tests the differences between sets of 15 D is statistically significant and by others it isn’t. A scatter plot makes it even clearer that relative corsi isn’t very helpful as a predictor of on ice outcomes and thus probably not a good way to rate D men. That isn’t to say it doesn’t work for forwards because it does, and spectacularly which suggests corsi may need some fine tuning for use with D.

    Out of curiousity, did you calculate any correlations on the metrics, or run any tests on statistical significance between the groups?

    Excellent work, by the way. Nothing ups the quality of discussion of the value of data like real actual data!

  130. striatic says:

    commonfan14: The absolutely unanimous joy over Hemmer’s “value” deal and the mocking dismissal of the media “experts” who hated it is quite amazing to read in hindsight.

    Hemsky got injured mid-season, and before that he was providing solid offense for his contract.

    predicting a broken foot isn’t easy.

  131. denny33 says:

    Woodguy,

    First, all his ridiculous bluster about all the bold moves he was going make….

    His national fawning and praising over Kruerger on a national stage -only to fire him..raised eyebrows across the league.

    And now word that we actually were about to spend MORE than the leafs on Clarkson…

    Add to that signing a cement footed – mid 30′s – 3rd pairing defenceman….

    To be candid, this offer, the zeal to do something was what a lot of people feared with Craig…

  132. G Money says:

    striatic: why on earth would the Oilers want Lapierre?

    Because he’s a veteran C, and also a chippy mouthy little bastard and I hate him and so he’d have looked great on our fourth line at $1.1M a year.

    Smyth is a warrior and Lander seems like a much nicer guy, but as far as either of them playing 4C for us next year: DO NOT WANT.

  133. uni says:

    FPB94:
    FPB94 says:
    July 5, 2013 at 4:14 pm
    Nylander now Clarkson. EDM’s management’s best friends are player’s wives.

    This is golden, at first I laughed, then I realized how true it was and was recently proved to still be, then I got sad.

  134. striatic says:

    denny33: To be candid, this offer, the zeal to do something was what a lot of people feared with Craig…

    i think the way the Oilers are looking at it is something like:

    Ference is superior to Whitney
    Gordon is superior to Horcoff
    Labarbera is superior to Khabibulin

    therefore the team is improved over last year.

  135. commonfan14 says:

    striatic: predicting a broken foot isn’t easy.

    Predicting a Hemsky injury is incredibly easy.

  136. striatic says:

    commonfan14: Predicting a Hemsky injury is incredibly easy.

    it wasn’t shoulder.

    it was fair to expect given the common success of his kind of shoulder surgery that his shoulder would be fine, and it was fine.

    other than that, there was no reason to expect a fluke broken foot.

  137. FPB94 says:

    One of my keyboard keys is ”Ales Hemsky out with”

  138. denny33 says:

    G Money,

    I want you to honestly answer if you think Ference at 34 is an upgrade to Schultz sr?

    Selected in the 8th round in 1997.

    My reference to Whitney was meant for similar footspeed – granted he is not as slow as Whitney but he is in Whitney’s class.

    Yes, I believe Andrew Ference at 34 is a third pairing D-man.

    I guess we will have to agree to disagree and see if Andrew’s footspeed gets better as he ages…

    One more question – how fast will Andrew be in year 3 and 4 of his contract?

  139. spoiler says:

    Devils sign Ryder per Rich Chere twit, 2 X 3.5M sounds like.

  140. Bag of Pucks says:

    commonfan14: Predicting a Hemsky injury is incredibly easy.

    Very funny : )

  141. Bag of Pucks says:

    Bag of Pucks said “Steve Smith IS condescending”

    Gerta Rauss: That’s his most endearing quality as far as I’m concerned..:)

    In which case, he should be entitled to some of his own medicine from time to time? Otherwise it’s a double standard.

  142. denny33 says:

    striatic,

    I will concede that….

    However, outside of maybe the Stoner kid in Minnesota and a few others…..Ryan Whitney’ was the worst skater in the NHL.

  143. RMGS says:

    Folks, it’s only the first day, and so far the moves made have been sideways or slight improvements. So, I’m not drawing conclusions yet. But what worries me increasingly is not the dodged bullets but rather the thought process that goes into overbidding significantly for Schneider, Clarkson, and god knows who else when there are 1) cheaper options available and 2) other priorities to address.

    That Queen’s MBA is losing cachet.

  144. Nostradumbass says:

    striatic,

    I love how Hemsky gets a pass now because of a foot injury that kept him out ..what 8 games?

    As is often the case with foot breaks they start out small and fairly pain manageable and get worse with time. The list of NHL players who have successfully played with foot injuries is long.

    Go back and watch the CBus game where Hemsky, two weeks after the incident that supposedly broke his foot, was flying around like Guy Lafleur.

    The point is he was determined healthy enough to play and should have produced more, writing off his entire lousy season because of a injury is a cop out

  145. FastOil says:

    If Ference wasn’t a local guy the deal would be easier to take. But it reeks of “nobody but wants to play here” and signing by former reputation for too long and for too much. These things don’t seem different from Tambo.

    If Ference can play 3 LD great. But 3.25 is terrible for that position and 4 years for an old guy in serious decline is a botch. Hannan will do a better job for the Sharks and has size for 1/3. Could have overpaid him by .5M and saved 1.75M with no term to use elsewhere.

    Unless they can flip Ference at a trade deadline this is a cap waster.

  146. lazerguidedmelody says:

    Crikey – you guys are a feisty crowd this afternoon. On day one of free agency, as well.

    MacT has plenty of trade bullets in the can, and it’s July 5. Personally, I’ll be evaluating the roster in September, RelCorsi or no RelCorsi

  147. Nostradumbass says:

    FastOil,

    I agree

    Someone please convince me today was way more productive that July 2011

    The Ference deal reeks over over terming a player that is not a significant difference maker

    The Boyd deal is great but really it just replaced Horcoff with a cheaper, somewhat better option

    I don’t see a 10 win improvement anywhere

  148. Magnus says:

    So…

    Hall — RNH — Eberle
    Gagner — XX — Yakupov
    MPS — XX — Hemsky
    Smyth — Gordon — Jonseau

    Smid — Petry
    Schultz — Schultz
    Ference — Belov/Potter

    Dubnyk — LaBarbera

    I still see the need for a 3rd line center, a big second line center/winger, another depth forward or 2, and a top 4 defenseman.

    We have Hemsky in play, but trading him only creates another hole.

    I’ll say it again, its only the actions of others that is saving MacTavish from making a stupid and regrettable move. As it is, I think signing Ference is a poor move, but not fatal. Had we signed, Clarkson for $6 million ($2 million more than Hemsky, and the same amount we’re paying Hall and Eberle), we would have been the laughing stock of the league, and deservedly so.

    In MacT, we do not trust..

  149. sben says:

    Hey guys. I”m a sens fan. One of the sens fans that came here when the smith hemsky rumors were still floating around and as I’m sure you guys know today was a crazy day for the Ottawa senators.

    I don’t know if you guys follow the senators very much or not but I’ll try to objectively explain what the whole story is.

    Daniel Alfredsson was drafted low and nothing was expected from him as a rookie. He worked hard and got better and slowly he made his way to the NHL. He was great and he kicked out Yashin and has been amazing for this team. He has brought this team to a great level always showing great leadership for the players. Not only that but off the ice he has been amazing. He has helped many foundations and organizations in Ottawa. He has stuck with Ottawa through the good times and the bad times. Today as I’m sure you all know alfie is no longer on the senators. I’m a regular on a site called senschirp which is pretty much the same as lowetide except for the fact that they’re different teams. When the word spread that alfie left the comment section exploded. I’d estimate that about 1,500 comments were written on senshirp today. I’ll tell you now there were thousands of opinions on there mine included and it was hard for me to sort my thoughts about alfie so I decided to come to an unbiased “jury” of sorts. I’m going to try to explain objectively the whole story of alfredssons leaving of Ottawa.

    It all started when after a lost game to pittsburgh which was the last game in the playoffs to the sens Alfredsson picked up the puck at the end of the game. Lots of reporters asked him if it was his last game and he said he would think about it. Before the draft he said that he would play another season and everybody including him thought that it would be for Ottawa. This next bit of the story was explained later by Murray and alfie in press conferences after everyone knew that alfie was leaving ottawa. Alfie said that a week before today thoughts started creeping about him wanting to win the cup. What happened next was Murray called alfies agent and was asked for a number. Murray gave a number that was apparently a lowball and the agent asked murray to come up with a final number and murray said that when it comes to FA negotiations the player is usually the one who should give the number so he asked alfie to come with a number. alfie never called back even when Murray called alfie many times on thursday. There was a bit more to it but thats the main bit.

    What do you think? should we be mad at alfie or not? Alfie himself said in the press conference in detroit that he would expect ottawa fans should be mad. thoughts?

  150. ohhell says:

    Perhaps the advanced stats guys can shed some light on how BG is an upgrade on SH. By traditional metrics, I see the following:

    Sean Horcoff
    Career PPG = 0.56
    Last 3 Yrs PPG = 0.46
    Career GPG = 0.20
    Last 3 yrs GPG = 0.18

    Boyd Gordon
    Career PPG = 0.25
    Last 3 Yrs PPG = 0.25
    Career GPG = 0.08
    Last 3 yrs GPG = 0.08

    Areas where Gordon stands out are health: 183 to 159 GP past 3 yrs and plus/minus (+4 to -16 in past three). Nothing here screams BG is a better player despite the 5 year age difference.

  151. Melman says:

    Bottom line is today was a day of good fixes. If you get 2 year of Ference in the top 4 that’s a win and he’ll be a good bottom pairing guy (maybe veteran 7th) for the last 2 by which time the cap will have likely gone up.

    The real game changer will be the make up of the 2nd line when the team rolls into Training Camp

    …and “phew” on the Clarkson miss especially if the term was the same

  152. Lowetide says:

    Sben: My advice? Move on. Remember Alfredsson as the wonderful player he was for the Senators and forget about all the anger and bullshit. Tough to do, I was so mad the day Messier was traded I could not be consoled. But looking back, I was just thinking about me.

  153. Lois Lowe says:

    sben,

    As someone who has ZERO invested in the Sens, I would say no. Alfie didn’t screw anyone over, he simply made a decision that was his right as an UFA. I think he knew that Melnyk had implemented a 50m internal cap because he is a lot less solvent than he was 5 years ago and for Alfie that meant 10m less that the team was investing into winning now.

  154. Ribs says:

    Bob McKenzie ‏@TSNBobMcKenzie 5m
    WPG sends 2nd round pick in 2014 to MIN for Devin Setoguchi.

    Neato.

  155. uni says:

    Devin Setoguchi to the Jets for a 2nd round pick.

    I don’t get it, why would Minnie do that.

  156. G Money says:

    denny33: I want you to honestly answer if you think Ference at 34 is an upgrade to Schultz sr?
    Selected in the 8th round in 1997.
    My reference to Whitney was meant for similar footspeed – granted he is not as slow as Whitney but he is in Whitney’s class.
    Yes, I believe Andrew Ference at 34 is a third pairing D-man.
    I guess we will have to agree to disagree and see if Andrew’s footspeed gets better as he ages…
    One more question – how fast will Andrew be in year 3 and 4 of his contract?

    These are different questions:

    a. I think Ference is more similar to Smid than to Schultz Sr. I think Ference will push Schultz to third pairing (along with Schultz Jr) and the team will be that much better for it.

    b. Ference is not fast, but he seems plenty fast enough to defend. I watched the SCF – he was not the problem. (Neither was Chara who seemed to get most of the blame – looked to me like Seidenberg was the designated Whitney).

    c. So on a related note, again I ask you – why is Andrew Ference at 34 on the Oilers a third pairing D-man, while at 34 in the Stanley Cup Finals, he’s a second pairing D-man on a much much better Bruins team?

    d. At no point did I (or anyone else) suggest that his footspeed will improve as he ages. Straw manning?

    e. I actually don’t think years 3 and 4 of the contract are relevant (and I have been consistent in saying this in every one of my posts on this topic here and at ON since the trade was announced). Those two years (along with about $1/2M a year) are the “UFA premium” and the “Oiler penalty” part of this contract. As I said in a couple of those posts – we only need to get one year of top 4 service out of Ference, and one year of 3rd pairing work. By year 3, our youngsters (specifically Klefbom, Schultz Jr, Marincin, and Nurse) need to be ready to step into pairings 2 and 3 and maybe even top pairing work if we are to succeed.

    For the next two years, barring injury, this should be a solid signing to shore up a defensive corps that is short of NHL-calibre defenders.

  157. G Money says:

    ohhell: Perhaps the advanced stats guys can shed some light on how BG is an upgrade on SH. By traditional metrics, I see the following:

    It would be worthwhile to advance your own understanding of advanced statistics to do some of the legwork to understand why the fancy stats suggest BG is a significant upgrade on Horcoff.

    The simplest summary is this:
    ZS = 32.6% – that means almost 70% of the time, BG is starting in the defensive zone rather than the offensive zone. Zone start of course will have a substantial negative effect on both your shots for/against and your points for/against.

    CorsiQOC = 1.053, 5th out of 15 forwards. In other words, Gordon in general not only started in his own zone, but generally had to do it against the other teams top 6 forwards.

    CorsiOn/CorsiRel = 1.053/0.6 – despite starting in his own zone all the time against fairly tough competition, Phoenix generally outshot the competition with Gordon on the ice, and they did about 0.6 shots/60 mins better with him on the ice than without him. In other words, despite the tough situation, he consistently drove the play in the right direction.

    In each case, those statistics are more comparable to Horcoff in his prime. Last year, Horc had easier zone starts (58%), faced weaker competition (10th out of 20 forwards) and generally still got badly outshot.

  158. ohhell says:

    My take on transactions to date:

    1. I see Gordon as a downgrade on Horcoff (net loss), although I like Gordon
    2. I don’t yet see a proven fourth line center so concerned there
    3. I see Ference as an upgrade on Fistric/Whitney and like the move despite term
    4. Belov and Larsen additions on D create more competition in the bottom of the order and is a positive
    5. Very neutral on LeBarbera acquisition, would have preferred Khudobin
    6. Very neutral on Joensuu, Acton and Hamilton additions and not convinced we are any better for them other than strengthening our AHL position.

    All this talk of using assets to fill holes confuse me as those outgoing assets would create more holes. Outgoing assets sound like Hemsky, Paajarvi. Who fills those holes? Does any of Joensuu, Acton or Hamilton replace Paajarvi? I have no confidence in that. That leaves D’men and next year’s picks to try and improve. In the end, I think we still lack enough quality NHL players to a) compete and b) leverage to fill holes.

    Our obvious strengths are prospect defensemen (still years out for most of them), cap space and top six forwards (although there is a glaring lack of physical presence in that group).

    From my perspective, to date, we have not improved in any noticeable way from last year. Secondly, I am not sure we have adequate bargaining chips to significant improve the team via trade without creating other holes. It seems like a conundrum for MacT. I understand his disappointment in losing out on some key pieces today.

    Hoping MacT can pull a rabbit out of a hat. Offer sheets might be the only solution, but that could backfire as well as teams needing centre help may target Gagner with an offer outside the compfort range of the OIlers but inside a decent draft pick compensation range. Fingers crossed. Clap! Clap!

  159. ohhell says:

    G Money,

    GM – Thanks for the advice. Unfortunately MBA school, full-time job, wife and kids keeps me from diving deeply into advanced stats. It is one of the driving reaons why I come to this site when I can. I much appreciate the efforts of the many who do have the time to explore the underlying data. Some day, I hope to be one of the group, but not for another year at least.

    On a side note, you have encourage me to take a quick peek so I went to behindthenet to see what you guys see and what I found Horc to have second toughest zone start of 42%, not 58%. Next to Belanger, Horc did the heaviest lifing on the team which (most people seem to agree) had poorer bottom six talent. So, while I give BG the nod for getting the shit end of the stick, Horc’s was pretty smelly too.

    In terms of QoC, Gordon faced tougher competion but had a lot more help. Not quite sure how to evaluate that difference. But I will say this, Horcs spent many games playing with little help in a system that the players struggled with.

    Looking at CORSI (no expert here), I see that Horcs struggled quite a bit as compared to Gordon and that the puck seems to move in a positive direction for Gordon. Not sure how much of that is linked to teammates, defense and system play.

    After assessing all that and than comparing Horc’s actual offensive production of almost 2 to 1 as compared to Gordon, I fail to see an upgrade despite age. Outside of obvious salary cap issues (which may not be an issue this year), I think we are better off with both, but if I had to pick one, I might pick Horc.

  160. G Money says:

    ohhell,

    A couple of points in that regard:

    - The ZS% is actually offensive zone start, so subtract from 100 to get the defensive comparables. So yes, Horc started 58% in his zone, while Gordon started 68% of the time in his own zone

    - The confounding factor in this analysis is indeed what kind of help they had, and it would be reasonable to assume that Gordon/Phoenix in general had a better bottom six than Horc/Edmonton. It is one of the reasons why advanced stats *help* to understand a player’s true value, but are from a complete picture (as you’ll note in previous posts where I make exactly that point with respect to the Ference signing). There is a Corsi number that shows quality of teammate, but I don’t find it very useful because it of course is so highly correlated with linemate Corsi that the value of it as an individual statistic is lost.

    - That said, though, the most damning statistic in that regard for Horc is the CorsiRel. Simply put – Phoenix (a good defensive team) was better with Gordon on the ice, while Edmonton (a bad defensive team) was better with Horcoff OFF the ice. The only guys worse than Horc were a rookie (Yak, who got markedly better through the season) and a bunch of bums: e.g. Brown, Whitney, Petrell, Belanger, Eager, Hordi.

    You don’t need to defend Horcs to me, the guys was a warrior for years and arguably the Oiler’s best two way player for many years. But a. he’d clearly reached a stale point in his career here – years of losing can do that, and b. his best days are unquestionably behind him.

    Gordon on the other hand is bigger, healthier, and in his prime at 29, and that is why I think he is an upgrade, and a substantial one at that.

    Good luck on the MBA – I also did mine while working full time, and my first child was born in my first year and my twins were born in my final year, so I have a pretty good idea what you’re going through … and yeah, I didn’t start digging into the advanced stats until that was well behind me!

  161. FPB94 says:

    Everybody’s getting terribly overpaid regardless of their skill level. Hey maybe one of us will get a 2M$ contract.

  162. VOR says:

    G Money,

    I have tried all manner of statistical tests both on the sample I posted and also on a much bigger one (30 games played versus 60 and 6 years of data versus 3 as well as far more variables including many that Gabe doesn’t list so I had to merge datasets. That data set includes forwards of course). I have done multivariate analysis including principal component analysis and multiple correspondence analysis. I have done linear regression analysis and multiple linear regression analysis. I have run the more derived statistics against some subsets of my data (THOR, adjusted plus minus, shot ratio, etc.) I have even tried such things as categorizing the data into three groups (scoring, 2-way, and defensive). I have also tracked players through time in a sample audit if you will.

    Would you like to know what I have learned from all this? Zip all. I can tell you that Corsi and Corsi relative for forwards is predictive of:

    on ice outcomes for forwards
    more predictive than shots for and against in terms of on ice outcomes for forwards
    more predictive than goals scored by individual players in terms of on ice outcomes for the population at large for forwards
    good Corsi forwards tend to remain good Corsi forwards over time
    not much different from Fenwick

    I think many people all ready accepted that these things were true.

    On the other hand after all that analysis I can’t say any of those statements apply to D-men and I can’t say they don’t. The results tell conflicting stories of variables that change over time in currently unpredictable ways. I can say you find some surprisingly well respected D-men pushing pretty bad Corsi. You also get terrible Corsi #s and great +Goal Differentials often enough to make one suspicious Corsi isn’t quite the right tool for evaluating D-men.

    More importantly I can’t tell you if +Corsi numbers are causative of good outcomes or simply correlated to something that does cause good outcomes (like more talent – LOL). I can tell you that Corsi while stable in range through time isn’t correlated to any other statistic (primary or derived) in a stable pattern from one year to the next in either forwards or D to any outcome stat. Looking at one year at a time you see years where both forwards and D are correlated very strongly to at least some other “unrelated” stats, years where only forwards are, and years where neither correlates well.

    There are times I want to throw my computers out the window.

    And don’t get me started on my rudimentary attempts at draft modelling.

    The more research I do the less I think I know and the more I realize that most of what passes for expert commentary in the hockey world is a waste of space. Hope that answers your question.

  163. leadfarmer says:

    FPB94,

    We could even get a NMC from Calgary.

  164. G Money says:

    VOR,

    Thank you very much, yes it does.

    I’ve done my share of statistics and data modelling, so I empathize. I’m guessing that one of the stronger confounding aspects of Corsi is the fact that we treat it as an individual statistic, when in fact it is a blend of individual + line + 5-man unit + team statistic, and the confounding interrelationships will cause intermittent noise that drowns out the signal value in the statistic.

    Intuitively it makes sense that Corsi is also noisiest/least predictive for defensemen, especially defensive defensemen. At the very least, they do not play a symmetric shots for/against type of game, so the value of any differential statistic is reduced. Second, there are highly effective defensive strategies that trade off shot quantity for quality i.e. the classic force them to shoot from the outside. More shots means worse Corsi but fewer goals mean better on ice outcomes.

    I will certainly take this into account in my future incorporation of Corsi.

    And thank you very much for the learning, a gift beyond price, almost free!

« Older Comments

Leave a Reply

Want to join the discussion?
Feel free to contribute!

Leave a Reply

© Copyright - Lowetide.ca