In the end, the Oilers stopped short of trading one of their Jacks and Kings and instead traded a 10 with face card rising, along with a 2nd rd pick. Whatever else we can say about this deal, it is most certainly (on this day) an overpay. The questions then are:
- How much was the overpay?
- Was the overpay necessary?
In order to answer those questions, let’s look at the positives and negatives of David Perron (we have oodles of information on our man Magnus). Let’s begin with the Vollman Sledgehammer.
THE VOLLMAN SLEDGEHAMMER
Perron shows up in a nice spot on the map, and his color is good. Combined with his skill (Perron per 82gp is 20-28-48 in his career) this is a nice player. The concussions are a definite concern his contract (3 years times $3.8M) is not a small matter. I like Perron, always have–wanted the Oilers to take him at #15 overall on his draft day–and am pleased with the acquisition. I wrote about the possibility on the weekend, no special credit there we’ve been talking about Perron for some time on this blog.
I like the idea of Perron playing with Yakupov, that’s a wonderful duo and hopefully they can put Sam Gagner in the middle and have some real success.
DAVID PERRON 12-13
- 5×5 points per 60: 1.58 (5th among regular forwards)
- 5×4 points per 60: 3.09 (8th among regular forwards)
- Qual Comp: 4th toughest among regular forwards
- Qual Team: 9th best teammates among regular forwards
- Corsi Rel: 2.5 (5th best among regular forwards) (5.61 CorsiON)
- Zone Start: 50.8% (7th easiest among regular forwards)
- Zone Finish: 46.9% (8th best among regular forwards)
- Shots on goal/percentage: 84/11.9% (3rd among F’s>70 shots)
- Boxcars: 48, 10-15-25
Summary: I think the Oilers got a fine player in his prime, and as best we can tell he’s a fine matchup for the skilled Oilers who populate the top two lines. This is a rock solid acquisition–concussion aside–and Craig MacTavish landed an actual NHL player who can help in an important role.
SAIL ON MALMO REDHAWK
I remember the day they found him, this board was thrilled with Paajarvi. We’ve cheered like hell and worried over him and now he’s down the line. I think it might be an idea to quote a few posters from the draft day item as a send off:
- Mark Ryan: Awesome, just awesome. The math is wrong on this guy. There’s no reason he should have been on this board at 10. Silly, silly Toronto.
- Maverick: Awesome is right!! I can’t believe he fell to 10th. Wow!
- CrazyCoach: Wow, I am overjoyed. Skilled kid who called the Oilers a classic team. Here’s hoping he’s the next Forsberg and not the next ????
- doritogrande: I can’t believe Toronto took Kadri. I knew right then that we had a shot at Paajarvi-Svensson. Solves the Oilers needs for LW and size (albeit in a couple years) and possesses the traditional Oilers qualities of blinding speed and character. A winner.
- Woodguy: *sheds tear* Never ever though the Oilers had a chance at this guy without moving up.
MAGNUS PAAJARVI 12-13
- 5×5 points per 60: 1.54 (5th among regular forwards)
- 5×4 points per 60: 2.05 (9th among regular forwards)
- Qual Comp: 6th toughest among regular forwards
- Qual Team: 10th best teammates among regular forwards
- Corsi Rel: -1.6 (7th best among regular forwards) (-12.88 CorsiON)
- Zone Start: 51.0% (7th easiest among regular forwards)
- Zone Finish: 55.3% (best among regular forwards)
- Shots on goal/percentage: 75/12% (4th among F’s>70 shots)
- Boxcars: 42, 9-7-16
This is a fine young player, not yet established in the NHL but a likely bargain for the next couple of years and very likely to be a gem in St. Louis. I don’t like saying goodbye to him and no one I know is suggesting he isn’t a value contract and player. Sail on Magnus, there’s not really one thing about you we didn’t value and cherish. I hope you don’t mind if we check in on you from time to time, maybe keep tabs on you with your Dad on twitter.
We won’t forget you.
Summary: Let’s go back to the top and ask the questions again:
- How much was the overpay? I think we can say with some authority that a genuine 2line scoring winger has more value than a 3line option, and that Perron is more proven. The concussion issue is a concern, but it isn’t like he’s missed 25 games a year with it. Perron is an offensive winger bought on the down beat and he is the best player in the deal, and could make the deal look like a bargain one short year from now. I believe the overpay is real, probably the difference between 2 and 3 lines, the different between established and emerging.
- Was the overpay necessary? Yes. If this team is ever going to get better, they need experience, quality and more established players. The Oilers have a lot of emerging talents, and one of them bought an actual NHL player today. That’s worth the price in my opinion.
This was MacT’s first real trade, and a bold move in my books. Those who want to be critical of this deal can certainly find ammo to make the argument, but there’s a thread of logic and reason in this deal that gives iron to it from the Edmonton side. Sometimes you have to lose a battle to win the war.
Today may be such a day.