OVERTURE, CURTAINS, LIGHTS!

The Edmonton Oilers still have work to do, but we’re at a point in summer where opening night lineups are somewhat visible. The turnover year over year is already large, and if the Oilers deal Ales Hemsky the thread that runs back to the beginning of the century will be gone. The ’2010 cluster’ of Hall and Ebs is the new starting point.

Opening Night Fall 2005-Balance!

  • L1: Horcoff-Smyth-Dvorak
  • L2: Peca-Torres-Hemsky
  • L3: Stoll-Moreau-Pisani
  • L4: Reasoner-Harvey-Laraque
  • D1: Pronger-Staios
  • D2: Ulanov-Smith
  • D3: Cross-Bergeron
  • G1: Ty Conklin (Jussi Markkanen)

What a beautiful roster, maybe the last great Oiler team of my lifetime. Notice the strength at center–Marty is #4!!–and the quality at wing (there are 6 good ones and Laraque could keep the pick 4,000 feet from the net for most of a shift just by cycling). Pronger the Great, Staios and Smith plus the dirty Russian, Cory the slow and Chaos incorporated. The G was the weak spot and that was addressed wonderfully by Lowe at the deadline.

Opening Night Fall 2006

  • L1: Horcoff-Smyth-Lupul
  • L2: Sykora-Torres-Hemsky
  • L3: Stoll-Moreau-Pisani
  • L4: Reasoner-Thoresen-Winchester
  • D1: Tjarnqvist-Smith
  • D2: Smid-Staios
  • D3: Bergeron-Greene
  • G1: Roloson (Markkanen)

The blue is shattered, the decade is ruined. Goaltending is much better year over year and there are some nice forwards on this roster, but the defense was crushed. There’s such fracture in the roster it is baffling to this day. The forward group still has many nice things, but that blueline is basically Smith and Staios and then 10 miles of chaios (sorry).

Opening Night Fall 2007

  • L1: Horcoff-Penner-Hemsky
  • L2: Stoll-Torres-Nilsson
  • L3: Reasoner-Sanderson-Brodziak
  • L4: Cogliano-Jacques-Gagner
  • D1: Pitkanen-Staios
  • D2: Souray-Greene
  • D3: Tarnstrom-Gilbert
  • G1: Roloson-Garon

The addition of Penner lends a hand to the top line and Stoll/Torres was always a fun group. Gagner and Cogliano arrive on the 4line but it doesn’t take long to move up. Pitkanen and Souray have been added to the blue and youngster Gilbert joins the group. It’s incredible to look at this team and realize how many players are still in the league–only Nilsson and Jacques failed among the younger set.

Opening Night 2008

  • L1: Horcoff-Cole-Hemsky
  • L2: Gagner-Cogliano-Nilsson
  • L3: Pisani-Moreau-Penner
  • L4: Brodziak-Pouliot-Stortini
  • D1: Visnovsky-Souray
  • D2: Grebeskhov-Gilbert
  • D3: Strudwick-Staios
  • G1: Garon, Roloson, Deslauriers

Garon started and that was news. Important notes include Cole on 1line LW and Pisani at center. The kid line with Gagner and Cogs with Robert Nilsson gets a push and that 4line had some promise. The D pairings looked more experienced and less ragged and Strudwick knocked Smid upstairs to begin the season. Lubomir Visnovsky was so wonderful in an Oiler uniform (pre-Quinn). This was MacT’s final opening night roster, and you can see a valiant attempt  at balance.

Opening Night 2009

  • L1: Horcoff-Jacques-Hemsky
  • L2: Cogliano-Penner-Brule
  • L3: Comrie-O’Sullivan-Stone
  • L4: Gagner-Moreau-Stortini
  • D1: Grebeshkov-Gilbert
  • D2: Souray-Staios
  • D3: Visnovsky-Smid
  • G1: Khabibulin, Deslauriers

Hahahahahahahahahahhahahaahahahhahahahahahahahahahaha. The mighty Quinn’s touch is on this roster. Lordy. There are 7 forwards no longer in the league! I don’t know what to say. Lubo on the third pairing. Khabibulin debuts. Give me two dozen Barbara Ann Scott’s to this bunch, and come back Lubo, we miss you!!!!!!!!!

Opening Night 2010

  • L1: Gagner-Penner-Hemsky
  • L2: Horcoff-Hall-Eberle
  • L3: Cogliano-Paajarvi-Brule
  • L4: Fraser-Jones-MacIntyre
  • D1: Whitney-Foster
  • D2: Smid-Gilbert
  • D3: Peckham-Vandermeer
  • G1: Khabibulin, Dubnyk

Hall and Ebs side by side with Horcoff, Gagner gets the push to the #1 line. Completely reasonable use of roster assets. The 3line is a kid line and the 4line begins the elevator shaft era at that position. Ryan Whitney leads a developing group of youngsters on the blue, Smid-Gilbert was a recent favorite pairing for me. This is about the time I stopped bitching about Smid.

Opening Night 2011

  • L1: Belanger-Smyth-Eberle
  • L2: Nuge-Hall-Hemsky
  • L3: Horcoff-Omark-Paajarvi
  • L4: Lander-Hordichuk-Jones
  • D1: Sutton-Gilbert
  • D2: Barker-Petry
  • D3: Smid-Peckham
  • G1: Dubnyk, Khabibulin

Renney puts Belanger and Smyth on the 1line with Eberle, and then places three gems on the 2line to start the season. Horcoff gets another set of kids, and the 4line is an elevator shaft from me to you. No Whitney means pushing Sutton up the depth chart and Dubnyk begins the season at #1. Cam Barker.

Opening Night 2012

  • L1: RNH-Hall-Eberle
  • L2: Gagner-Yakupov-Hemsky
  • L3: Horcoff-Smyth-Hartikainen
  • L4: Belanger-Eager-Petrell
  • D1: Smid-Petry
  • D2: Schultz-Schultz
  • D3: Whitney-Fistric
  • G1: Dubnyk, Khabibulin

The ’22 and younger’ group include the top line, Yakupov, Justin Schultz.  Holy hell ladies, that’s a cluster. On the other hand, its as sad as sad can be that the ‘Ron Low-Stan Weir’ veterans are Horcoff and Smyth. I’m always going to hold that 2006 spring team in my heart, and watching those two warriors fade is a little bit heartbreaking.

Opening Night 2013 (Horcoff’s gone, Ales too?)

  • L1: RNH-Hall-Eberle
  • L2: Gagner-Perron-Yakupov
  • L3: Gordon-Joenssu-Jones
  • L4: Lander-Smyth-Brown
  • D1: Smid-Petry
  • D2: Ference-J Schultz
  • D3: N Schultz-Larsen
  • G1: Dubnyk (LaBarbera)

Those top two lines are the best in many, many years. Many years. The 3line isn’t complete and the 4line is a jumble although I do think Ryan Smyth has some to give this coming season. I didn’t include Hemsky, although he could survive for one more opening night. If he doesn’t, the mantle falls to Ladislav Smid who has been here since 2006.

This group has some nice balance on the blue, and is getting better (although not all the way there). A simple comparison to the 2005 blue tells us all we need to know: Prongers don’t grow on trees and you can rarely trade for them–grow your own takes time.

One thing we don’t know: the coach and what he’ll do with the lineup. In the coming days, I’m going to write a post or two about Eakins and his roster usage, hopefully it’ll give us an idea about how he ran his blue, how hard he rode his best players, and how many fringe players (how many enforcers, Coke Machines and monoliths did he employ?) are on the team.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

harold and maude

The excitement of the draft and free agency begins to  fade into the long, warm days of summer. I usually find out about trades in Mid-July and late August while washing the car or shopping, and inevitably find some poor guy or woman nearby and explain the trade to them. I’ve never been arrested or sent away by store security, but there’s probably 100 or so people in the world who believe I’m quite addled (probably on the low side of that estimate btw). Scheduled to appear on the LDWLT at 10 this morning on the Team 1260:

@Lowetide_ on the twitter, 10-1260 on the text message, comments below. I’m off next week so smoke ‘em if you got ‘em this morning.

 

written by

The author didn‘t add any Information to his profile yet.

144 Responses to "OVERTURE, CURTAINS, LIGHTS!"

  1. theres oil in virginia says:

    The above is, frankly, too painful to read all the way through. I had to breeze over the middle portion. How in the world did you compose yourself enough to compose this piece?

    EDIT: Here are some keywords you could attach to this piece:
    pain, long-suffering, disgrace, unfathomable, redemption?

  2. Woodguy says:

    L3: Gordon-Joenssu-Jones
    L4: Lander-Smyth-Brown

    Ugh.

    Its not quite:

    L3: Stoll-Moreau-Pisani
    L4: Reasoner-Harvey-Laraque

    You have to think that Hemsky will be traded for an actual 3RW/lLW with a track record of being a Real NHL checker.

    Joensuu is almost a rookie and unknown and Jones is……well he’s Ryan Fucking Jones and its tough to check anyone on your ass in the ozone or hanging out by the opposition blue.

    If Jones plays for Eakins like he has these past few years I give him 2 weeks on line 3, then as a mainstay on line 4 or HS.

    I wonder if Lou would trade Bernier or Ryan Carter for Hemsky?

    How fucking sad is it that I’m ok with getting Bernier or Carter for Hemsky?

  3. DBO says:

    So LT do you think Hemsky moves in next week or so, or are we going to see a move as camp starts? Personally would really like it to happen now so there are no major headaches at camp.

    Also, there are a bunch of solid vets still as UFA’s out there. I hope the Oil put out some “professional tryout” deals for camp in the fall. A good chance to have a vet outplay Lander, forcing the team to properly wait and give our kids more time. Same thing with Klefbom. Our best case is both are OK in camp and a vet on a tryout starts the year with the team, giving us depth and options mid season once injuries hit (which will happen, this is the Ol we are talking about).

  4. Lowetide says:

    DBO:
    So LT do you think Hemsky moves in next week or so, or are we going to see a move as camp starts? Personally would really like it to happen now so there are no major headaches at camp.

    Also, there are a bunch of solid vets still as UFA’s out there. I hope the Oil put out some “professional tryout” deals for camp in the fall. A good chance to have a vet outplay Lander, forcing the team to properly wait and give our kids more time. Same thing with Klefbom. Our best case is both are OK in camp and a vet on a tryout starts the year with the team, giving us depth and options mid season once injuries hit (which will happen, this is the Ol we are talking about).

    I think Hemsky moves by September long weekend. I don’t think he’ll be here when MacT hands over the team to the caoching staff.

    WG: Your love of Jones continues to mystify. :-)

  5. striatic says:

    the Oilers are really rolling the dice on Joenssu.

    i’m guessing Smyth moves up to take his place if he doesn’t work out? i don’t like that idea. the team is still has a very fragile bottom 6 that needs a lot of work.

    Lander as 4C is really intriguing to me because behindthenet has Lander as 5th on the team in CorsiRel but pretty much all of his unadjusted numbers are terrible.

    it makes me wonder if the analytics guys in the Oilers camp think he just needs better teammates, or if the idea is to bring in a vet 4C and put Lander in OKC to start the year.

    odd fancy stats on that one.

  6. Lowetide says:

    Striatic: That’s my guess, the Oilers may feel Gordon-Smyth-Jones is the 3line and Joensuu will have to fight Ryan Hamilton for playing time. I think Joensuu has a better chance at keeping a job than Smyth or Hamilton in the top 9, though.

    Why? Oilers signed him for 2 years and he has size. He’s the only size addition among the forwards who can play in the top 9 (as far as I can see).

  7. DBO says:

    So poaching from team’s in cap trouble. Wonder if the Oil could use their cap space to make some moves. If we were willing to eat like $3 mill of Hemsky’s cap, I wonder if Philly would be an interesting option.

    Hemsky (we keep $3 mill) for Read and Meszaros.
    - Saves Philly $3 mill in cap space, allowing them to sign Gagne at $1 mill to round out their roster. read is a UFA next year, and they can’t afford him. And they can’t buyout Meszaros (they used their compliance ones already).
    - We do it to get Read. A solid two way RW who is a UFA next year, but could be re signed around $2.5 mill. he isn’t big, but he fits the “compete all the time” mandate of MacT. Philly gets skill upgrade (they have enough grit), Oil get solid real NHLer for 3rd line. We just have to eat $4 mill of Meszaros, and if he stays healthy he is an upgrade in our top 4.

    Win win.

  8. Bar_Qu says:

    It is a bigger problem slotting Joensuu at 3LW than having Jones on the 3rd line (WG’s feelings aside).

    Imo, he was signed to fill the 4 line spot to keep Brown as 13F. I think the plan has always been that, so i will be surprised if there is no move in that direction before the end of the month.

  9. TheOtherJohn says:

    LT

    Mark me down in the same group that “loves” Ryan Jones…. Not

    Also agree at this point am prepared to send Hemsky out just to see a responsible checker come back. Man is that tough to type out.

  10. striatic says:

    Lander had the worst PDO on the team with the 5ht highest Corsi Rel so i wonder if the “analytics SWAT team” is thinking Lander bounces back.

  11. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    “Opening Night 2011… No Whitney means pushing Sutton up the depth chart”

    what happened to Whitney here? I don’t recall… did he start the season injured?

    ——

    “N Schultz-Larsen”

    I think N. Schultz will be gone by opening night and I think there is 0 chance Belov isn’t on the opening night roster. The language used by both MacT and Belov sound like a committed relationship to me. I also think he’s going to be a stronger player than we think. Barring injury, he’s in the lineup IMO.

    ——-

    “the mantle falls to Ladislav Smid who has been here since 2006.”

    I think this, plus the new contract, plus his character make him the ideal candidate for the A among the blue. I thought he deserved it last year over N. Schultz (time banked) anyway and if N. Schultz is gone or the new coach thinks to make a change like RK did last year, I think it would be a slap in the face to pass over Smid and give it to Ference.

    (Also, Smid is my favorite Oiler, so … bias)

    ——-

    I’m still hoping for upgrades on 1 or 2 D; 3W and 4C. And I think they are all still possible, we may have to wait until the trade deadline next year though.

  12. supernova says:

    Man that bottom 6 is brutal right now.

    Smyth needs to be reassigned to community relations.
    Lander should get another year in the minors. That’s whats best for him.
    Brown is OK as your 13th forward, at least he makes the other team keep their head up.
    Jones from 2 seasons ago is effective 3 rd liner if he hits more.

    Jonessu was added to make the pro scouts and howson happy.

    This is interesting because the area we seen howson really improve CBJ is in grit and hard to play against players.

    MacT has shown he takes in the people around him, Perron was added because the analytics team likes him, jonessu by the pro scout guys.

    Man I wish we would have signed Lapierre this bottom 6 would look a lot better. Also I think as it sits there is room here for Ben eager if he plays hard and hits, apparently AHL coaches loved his compete level and attitude, if that’s there he has everything to be a quality 4 line.

  13. tlatos says:

    That bottom 6 is still garbage. I like Gordon and Smyth where they are but the other 4 are question marks at best. Desperately need a center, if Lander starts the season is a write off.

    N.Schultz needs to be traded, $3.5mm is way too much for a 5th dman. Gilbert was the better player and could probably be had for $3mm or less after his buyout. He could reunite with Smid on top pairing, making the second pairing Ference-Petry a lot more reliable and sheltering J.Schultz at EV.

    I am hoping Belov is some sort of mix of Grebeshkov’s puck moving with Ulanov’s hip checks.

  14. DBO says:

    Or do we merely target a guy like Talbot (think pboy mentioned it a few days ago) or someone like Boyle from the Rags. Both teams with cap issues, both players making $1.75 to play 4th line, which is a lot on a cap pressured team. Both would fit (Boyle size, UFA next year. Talbot signed for 3 years, do not quit attitude)

  15. tlatos says:

    Also trading Hemsky means that none of Eberle, Yakupov, Hall or Perron can get injured for any significant time this year or the team is screwed.

  16. TheOtherJohn says:

    If Jones and Smyth are 3L and playing 12-15 minutes a night.we are going to miss the playoffs AGAIN. Fully expect we will watch Ryan Hamilton and find out he’s too slow to play in the show. 28 year old big guys who can score don’t stay in the AHL unless there’s a reason.

  17. fuzzy muppet says:

    Outside of boyd gordon, that is by far the worst bottom 6 in hockey.

    If thats what they plan on starting the season with, we will be talking lottery by january 1st.

    Much more to do

  18. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Random CBA question: what will it take for Klefbom’s ELC to kickstart?

    I imagine it kicks in regardless of whether he plays AHL or NHL hockey? is that right?

  19. supernova says:

    Romulus Apotheosis,

    Correct, pro NA games

  20. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    From yesterday’s Fretboard:

    “Lander-Smyth-Brown
    Arcobello, Ryan Hamilton (estimate)”

    I am very curious about this. If Eakins does what RK wanted to do last year, i.e., have 14 forwards on hand and 7 D… who goes into the rotational F cluster (4 players)?

    My Guess: Hamilton, Brown, Arco, Rajala (possibles: Eager, Lander, Acton, Smyth, Miller)

    Part of that is I assume a better and more permanent 4C will show up before day 1 and I’d like to see Rajala get a serious look for that 4th line. Arco and Miller may get an added push if MacT wants Cs everywhere.

  21. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    striatic:
    Lander had the worst PDO on the team with the 5ht highest Corsi Rel so i wonder if the “analytics SWAT team” is thinking Lander bounces back.

    Even with that assumption…. it still seems prudent to me to let young Lander keep becoming awesome in OKC.

    If there is a lesson the young Nords (Magnus and Lander) have taught us over the past few years it’s that there is no need to rush these guys and rushing them makes their rugged development look like the product of being bad players rather than young, rough-around-the-edges players.

  22. pboy says:

    I’m expecting Ryan Smyth to have a bounce back season. I think the lock out really affected long term vets like Smyth who’ve had a routine for the last 15+ years and it seemed like he never had his legs from Game 1 last year. Obviously I don’t think he’s going to regain his form of ’06 but I think he’s going to be an effective player on the 3rd and 4th lines. I hope they keep him at LW, it’s his comfort zone and it’s where he has his best chance to play well.

    I really think that Ben Eager can be a valuable roster player if he’s comfortable playing his physical game. His career is really on the line here and I’m sure that’s a conversation he’s been having with his agent. The Oiler’s would be a better team if Eager can regain his Blackhawk form

    DBO,

    I think the Oiler’s best bet for a nice, cheap 4th line C is to pluck either Boyle from the Rags or Talbot from the Flyers. Nice contracts and both teams would benefit from reducing a little payroll. I don’t think the Oiler’s would have to give up much more than a pick or a lower prospect to acquire either guy.

  23. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    tlatos:
    Also trading Hemsky means that none of Eberle, Yakupov, Hall or Perron can get injured for any significant time this year or the team is screwed.

    I’m thinking Rajala and Arco (on the wing) are probably seen as top 6 replaceables at this point. Not to say that is a wise bet, but that’s my guess.

  24. slopitch says:

    So the big difference btw 2005 and 2013 is

    Pronger >>>>>>>>> Smid
    Moreau > joensu
    Pisani > Jones

    I think MacT can solve the 3rd line or at least close the gap. But Pronger …. man it could take 20 years to replace him.

    On the bright side, Oilers haven’t had a first line of this calibre since when? Weight, Guerin, Arnott? I’d probably take the kids.

  25. Lucinius says:

    Mmm. Boston signs Bergeron to a 8 year, 52 million dollar contract — 6.5 million cap hit.

    He was a beast in the playoffs, but my gut says too much money, and I hate that kind of term on almost any player.

  26. Woodguy says:

    DBO:
    So poaching from team’s in cap trouble. Wonder if the Oil could use their cap space to make some moves. If we were willing to eat like $3 mill of Hemsky’s cap, I wonder if Philly would be an interesting option.

    Hemsky (we keep $3 mill) for Read and Meszaros.
    - Saves Philly $3 mill in cap space, allowing them to sign Gagne at $1 mill to round out their roster. read is a UFA next year, and they can’t afford him. And they can’t buyout Meszaros (they used their compliance ones already).
    - We do it to get Read. A solid two way RW who is a UFA next year, but could be re signed around $2.5 mill. he isn’t big, but he fits the “compete all the time” mandate of MacT. Philly gets skill upgrade (they have enough grit), Oil get solid real NHLer for 3rd line. We just have to eat $4 mill of Meszaros, and if he stays healthy he is an upgrade in our top 4.

    Win win.

    i l;ike that idea, but the compliance buyout period is over for the year.

    Any buyouts now are normal ones that count against the cap.

  27. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    pboy: I’m expecting Ryan Smyth to have a bounce back season. I think the lock out really affected long term vets like Smyth who’ve had a routine for the last 15+ years and it seemed like he never had his legs from Game 1 last year.

    If we look back to the last lockout the same thing happened. the older guys didn’t look good when the puck dropped…

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6bmcT4qieI4

    but they also — on balance — didn’t seem to improve with another year down the road… A lot of players (see Cory Cross) looked like the game had completely passed them by, as if the game hit the reset button over the lock-out and the speed of the game hopped a few ticks.

    It seems very possible Smyth will look worse this year, though I’d expect things like his disturbingly low shooting percentage to rebound.

  28. Woodguy says:

    Lucinius:
    Mmm. Boston signs Bergeron to a 8 year, 52 million dollar contract — 6.5 million cap hit.

    He was a beast in the playoffs, but my gut says too much money, and I hate that kind of term on almost any player.

    I think we are seeing all these long term contracts now because the cap is artificially low.

    Wherea 6.5MM is 10% of your cap today, its not tomorrow.

    Lots of smart people have the cap doing this in the next 4 years:

    13/14 65
    14/15 70
    15/16 75
    16/17 80

    So in 3 years Bergeron goes from 10% cap hit to 8.5%, then beyond…..

    Long term deals for players are full of risk, especially the closer to 30 the player is (Bergeron will be 28 at camp this year), but the trade of is a “value” contract in future.

  29. striatic says:

    Lucinius: Mmm. Boston signs Bergeron to a 8 year, 52 million dollar contract — 6.5 million cap hit.

    the money is excellent for a player of his calibre. maybe even a bit of a discount.

    Bergeron is arguably one of the top 5 best all-around hockey players in the world.

    the term is a little bad. 8 years is a lot but Bergeron is only 28, so the contract takes him to 35. not crazy, but not great either.

    overall a very good contract for Boston.

  30. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Lucinius:
    Mmm. Boston signs Bergeron to a 8 year, 52 million dollar contract — 6.5 million cap hit.

    He was a beast in the playoffs, but my gut says too much money, and I hate that kind of term on almost any player.

    If there is one player I covet on that Bs team it’s Bergeron. He’s their RNH. I’m not great at assessing value of contracts, but I love that player. love him.

  31. kashirat says:

    LT: I’m curious, did you have anything to say way back in 2005 about the bottom 6? Easy to say now how much depth we had, but at the time, Stoll, Reasoner and Pisani were not particularly proven.

    Can Jonessu, Lander and (?? Jones?) do the same for us?

  32. Madtown Oil says:

    It is easy to see top 6 is solid bottom 6 still a mess….especially L3. Eakins said he thought forward lines depended on two forwards with chemistry paired. If you look at that 2005 lineup you see that kind of approach. Given the low return likely received, I think they should keep Hemsky and run:

    •L1: RNH-Hall-Eberle
    •L2: Gordon-Perron-Hemsky
    •L3: Gagner-Joenssu-Yakupov (soft minutes)
    •L4: Lander-Smyth-Jones

    Much better balance, IMHO. And if Lander struggles you can play that 4th line 6 minutes a night. If Joenssu can’t even handle those soft minutes you can move in Smyth.

  33. Lucinius says:

    Oh, I don’t disagree Bergeron is an excellent player. Fantastic defensively and puts up offense (he’s not a point per game player, though).

    My issue with the dollars (and term) is he’s racking up quite the injury history. He may be a tough son of a bitch but its going to take a toll on him.

  34. Ca$h-Money! says:

    It’s going to be interesting what happens in the next couple of months, that’s for sure.

    On the topic of Brown at 13f (or 14f)

    1. He’s a facepuncher that’s bad at hockey
    2. Hopefully we’ve taken on a coach that understands that if you have a facepuncher in your lineup, you don’t need to give him 10 minutes a night.
    3. Brown is a better facepuncher option than we’ve had in many years because he punches faces. The advanced stat here is facepunches/EV60, of which he is amongst the league leaders. Not fights mind you, but actual punches to the face.
    4. His mean-looking-stare to smile ratio is off the charts. Amongst the games elite (w/ Bieksa of course).

  35. tlatos says:

    Adding Grabovski would mean so much to this roster. If they ran Smyth/Joensuu-Grabovski-Hemsky against 3rd line competition, they would tear it up.

  36. commonfan14 says:

    I wish Smyth was from Sanderson’s family tree.

    I just remember watching him in ’07 and being amazed that at 35 he had lost approximately 0% of this speed. I can’t recall off the top of my head another guy at the end of the line who was still among the fastest skaters on his team.

  37. LMHF#1 says:

    There’s no need to trade at this point. There are still a ton of FAs. Go get some guys for money only. Don’t waste players/depth.

  38. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    LMHF#1:
    There’s no need to trade at this point. There are still a ton of FAs. Go get some guys for money only. Don’t waste players/depth.

    In part I agree… but $$$ and player limits and simple common sense tell us that we can’t carry all these hangers on and add more players.

  39. rickithebear says:

    we expect our prospects to be out of AHL by age 24
    So I looked for U24 Fwd top 10 in points per Game and Plus minus per game for players with 1/3 of the season played.
    05-06: D. Penner
    06-07: P-A parenteau
    07-08 D. krecjci; V. sobotka
    08-09 None
    09-10; D. descharnais; L. couture
    10-11: L. Adam
    11-12: Rahkshani
    12-13: Tyler johnson; T.Rajala

    MacT is preaching, Speed, Pocession, Production, Performance!
    Toni Toni Toni

    Do not forget Toni!

    Edit: i see romulus metioned Toni should have hit post @ 7:45.

  40. FastOil says:

    Woodguy: I think we are seeing all these long term contracts now because the cap is artificially low.

    Wherea 6.5MM is 10% of your cap today, its not tomorrow.

    Lots of smart people have the cap doing this in the next 4 years:

    13/14 65
    14/15 70
    15/16 75
    16/17 80

    So in 3 years Bergeron goes from 10% cap hit to 8.5%, then beyond…..

    Long term deals for players are full of risk, especially the closer to 30 the player is (Bergeron will be 28 at camp this year), but the trade of is a “value” contract in future.

    This why to me if MacT wants to make bold moves for a younger core type player, he should do it ASAP and get that player signed long term. If the player doesn’t fall flat the contract gains value making them more tradable or if kept gives the team more cap for depth.

  41. goldenchild says:

    tlatos: Adding Grabovski would mean so much to this roster. If they ran Smyth/Joensuu-Grabovski-Hemsky against 3rd line competition, they would tear it up.

    A 3rd line centered around Grabo and Hemmer would be the cats pajamas. Defenitly makes the roster look more playoffy

  42. FastOil says:

    Ca$h-Money!:
    It’s going to be interesting what happens in the next couple of months, that’s for sure.

    On the topic of Brown at 13f (or 14f)

    1. He’s a facepuncher that’s bad at hockey
    2. Hopefully we’ve taken on a coach that understands that if you have a facepuncher in your lineup, you don’t need to give him 10 minutes a night.
    3. Brown is a better facepuncher option than we’ve had in many years because he punches faces.The advanced stat here is facepunches/EV60, of which he is amongst the league leaders.Not fights mind you, but actual punches to the face.
    4. His mean-looking-stare to smile ratio is off the charts.Amongst the games elite (w/ Bieksa of course).

    I think this is why unless necessary Eager won’t be considered. He ‘was’ a face puncher that looked like a hockey player and now he’s a big fast guy that we know is only big and fast but can’t play NHL hockey.

  43. Obiwan Eberle says:

    Jones – Gordon –
    Joensuu – Lander – Brown
    Smyth – Eager

    I do admit to drinking a lot of koolaid but

    IF we can trade Hemmer (1/2 salary retained) for a natural RW checking line player,
    IF Eager/Smyth/Joensuu can move to RW on the 4th line to slide out Brown,
    IF the top 6 (a signed Gags included) stays relatively healthy (100% or better) and
    IF we see our D Zone coverage and D play improve

    We’ll be in the hunt for 7 or 8th in the lastweek…that 3rd line RW is a key tumbler now.
    lots of IF’s but I’m really excited for what’s to come this season. (i say that ever year)

  44. rickithebear says:

    tlatos:
    Also trading Hemsky means that none of Eberle, Yakupov, Hall or Perron can get injured for any significant time this year or the team is screwed.

    Hemsky playing in our top 6 we are screwed.
    2.00EVP/60 last 2 years.
    jeansuu 2.05 EVP/60
    interesting huh!

  45. supernova says:

    wouldn’t it make sense to expect Grabovski to go to the KHL?

    he has received alot of cash with a buyout, KHL just showed they are open for Business with Kovy going there.

    I would sign Grabovski but only to a 1 year term until you get to know the player very well.

  46. LMHF#1 says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: In part I agree… but $$$ and player limits and simple common sense tell us that we can’t carry all these hangers on and add more players.

    Don’t we only have 44 players and a ton of cap space?

    I’m not saying don’t move out the filler, but I am saying there’s no need to trade quality for borderline quality rather than just sign a UFA or 3 (C, W, D).

    If you make a trade now, I’d trade for the D. There are fewer options there. Still have my fingers crossed that Mr. Ranger decides to report for duty though. That could be a big win.

  47. Ca$h-Money! says:

    rickithebear,

    Agreed. Also:

    This idea that we need 6 certifiable top 6 forwards that drive the play at any given time is false. The reality is that, as long as our top 6 features two of RNH/Ebs/Hall/Yak on any given line we’ll be fine. Who are the 5 & 6 in the top two on Chicago? Depends on the day. As long as Sharp/Hossa/Toews/Kane are up there it’s just about being along for the ride. That said having Perron and Gagner as the default options is nice.

  48. Rondo says:

    Oilers have 3 more years of rebuilding it does not need to happen today. Patience

  49. Hammers says:

    tlatos,

    Said the same thing yesterday . It’s a L/W we need for 3rd line.

  50. FastOil says:

    tlatos:
    Adding Grabovski would mean so much to this roster. If they ran Smyth/Joensuu-Grabovski-Hemsky against 3rd line competition, they would tear it up.

    Likely true, but the team has a well paid 3C in Gordon and he’s too pricey to play 4C. Unless Gagner goes wing or is traded there isn’t room. If Sam goes wing I suppose Yak could be on the third line (assuming Hemsky is as good as gone). I am in the camp that Grabo is a bit contentious for MacT’s liking but you never know.

    Hall / RNH / Eberle
    Perron / Grabo / Gagner
    Joensuu / Gordon / Yak
    Smyth / ??? / Jones

    The bottom 6 still looks a bit iffy. If they dealt Hemsky for Kulemin to play 3 LW it would be better, he could help Gordon cover for Yak and the line could play tougher comp if necessary and still be a threat to score. The second line would be grittier but still small which MacT has said isn’t ideal to be dominant- 3 similar players.

  51. striatic says:

    goldenchild: A 3rd line centered around Grabo and Hemmer would be the cats pajamas.

    i don’t think Grabovski signs here to play 3rd line minutes.

    would result in too much of a hit on his future value.

    he will sign somewhere he can play on the second line.

  52. Woodguy says:

    FastOil: This why to me if MacT wants to make bold moves for a younger core type player, he should do it ASAP and get that player signed long term. If the player doesn’t fall flat the contract gains value making them more tradable or if kept gives the team more cap for depth.

    I expect MacT to sign RNH, Yak and Shultz to long term deal like v4.2 did with Hall and Eberle.

  53. FastOil says:

    Woodguy: I expect MacT to sign RNH, Yak and Shultz to long term deal like v4.2 did with Hall and Eberle.

    True, might not leave a lot of cap for anything else. Good timing with the new CBA cap wise for the Oilers.

  54. Woodguy says:

    Rondo: TLATOS

    So wait until Hall only has 4 years left until FA and Eberle has 3?

    Sure.

    Just in time to sell them off and start another rebuild.

    Perfect.

  55. russ99 says:

    As for Ryan Smyth:

    I really believe Smytty still has something left to give, but the issue has been him running down physically way too early in the season. Two years ago he conked out in January and this season he didn’t make it to March.

    Maybe limited ice time on the 4th line and some PP time could help with that.

  56. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Jesus H. Jesus this Lansky is nuts.

    He just said that at the CBC they took it as job #1 to shape how we viewed the game, its heroes and narratives and then went on to give the most tired anti-Europe BS and pro-Canadian-Content diatribe I have ever heard.

    These guys are dinosaurs.

  57. supernova says:

    Romulus Apotheosis,

    ahh, MSM people believe they have so much power and control.

    it seems they do have alot of this power to the uninformed mind.

  58. russ99 says:

    FastOil

    No need to do it now, Cap is sure to go up next offseason. As long as we don’t have RFA issues with RNH and Schultz as we do now with Gagner… Plus Dubnyk could take us to the cleaners next offseason as a UFA if he improves.

  59. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Romulus Apotheosis,

    I see this guy has pissed me off before:

    ROMULUS APOTHEOSIS says:
    June 21, 2013 at 11:12 am
    Wow, this Lansky is brutal on this coaching question.

    IIRC he was praising Carlyle to the hilt and thought Reimer was holding the team back, i.e., the exact opposite of what actually happened.

  60. striatic says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: Jesus H. Jesus this Lansky is nuts.

    agreed.

    wow. just wow.

    oh and the oilers kids need to develop faster too. ok then.

  61. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    supernova: wouldn’t it make sense to expect Grabovski to go to the KHL?

    things could have changed and his agent could be trying to improve his position, but this is the last we’ve heard about it:

    Follow

    Pierre LeBrunVerified account
    ‏@Real_ESPNLeBrun
    Mikhail Grabovski’s agent says his client only wants to play in the NHL. Says the KHL not an option at the moment

  62. Dead Cat Bounce says:

    The only team in the NHL with worse centre depth than the Oilers is the Calgary Flames.

    I expect Grabovski would be a good fit there and Feaster has $10M in cap space before Kiprusoff retires.

  63. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    LMHF#1: Don’t we only have 44 players and a ton of cap space?

    I’m not saying don’t move out the filler, but I am saying there’s no need to trade quality for borderline quality rather than just sign a UFA or 3 (C, W, D).

    If you make a trade now, I’d trade for the D. There are fewer options there. Still have my fingers crossed that Mr. Ranger decides to report for duty though. That could be a big win.

    Is there a list of the current players on the 50 man somewhere… internets draw a blank… seems like an easy resource for someone to compile for all the teams yet it is very hard to find.

    I’m not against getting depth, or continuing to acquire actual NHL players without sending any away… but we’ve got a lot of bottom pairing D right now and if we add Ranger and/or a true top pairing guy… well that is one hell of a lot of depth players… not all of them can go to OKC, some would be lost to waivers and 3.5M is a lot to pay N. Schultz for bottom pairing minutes.

    Also… if you send everyone down to OKC or have them sit in the press box… you wonder what that does to the development paths of the prospects. Guys like Klefbom, Larson, etc. need to play every night.

  64. rickithebear says:

    As we sit signed players:

    Hall-XXX-Yakupov
    Perron-RNH-Eberle
    Rajala-Gordon-Joensuu
    Smyth-Lander-Jones
    Brown
    Some one said grabovsky will not sign to play 3C!
    3C?
    Am i missing something?

  65. rickithebear says:

    Dead Cat Bounce: The only team in the NHL with worse centre depth than the Oilers is the Calgary Flames.

    WTF:
    Baerschi-Monohan-Camalerri
    Glencross-Stajan-Stempniak
    Hudler-Galliardi-D. jones
    XXX-backlund-XXX

    you are wrong sir.

    Am i mistaken or are ther three potential 30 G scorers on each line?

  66. G Money says:

    russ99: No need to do it now, Cap is sure to go up next offseason.

    I find it interesting that teams are signing contracts assuming that the cap is sure to go up. The cap is driven off hockey-related-revenue. The biggest driver over the last decade in HRR going up is that the Canadian dollar went from 60% US to over par. That trend at least for now has reversed. While it may do nothing more than hold steady, the cyclical nature of currencies is more suggestive that we’ll see a decline in the Canadian dollar relative to the US dollar. Which means that HRR will go sideways or even down.

    If you’re a team signing contracts on the basis of the cap going up, and it actually goes down – what a world of hurt that will be.

    FastOil: I think this is why unless necessary Eager won’t be considered. He ‘was’ a face puncher that looked like a hockey player and now he’s a big fast guy that we know is only big and fast but can’t play NHL hockey.

    I would say that we know he could play NHL hockey at one point, but didn’t last year. I think the Oilers are hoping that is because of the concussion issues. If those are gone, we may get the Eager of old, and that would be a nice bonus. Worth giving him the chance to prove it.

    LMHF#1: There’s no need to trade at this point. There are still a ton of FAs. Go get some guys for money only. Don’t waste players/depth.

    Broken record -> scratched CD -> glitched MP3 time.

    3L = Mason Raymond, 3R = Mueller or Brunner, 4C = Wellwood -> 4L = Smyth, 4R = Jones, Hemsky gone for picks and prospects and $5M in cap room.

  67. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Gordies Elbow,

    thank you, thank you, thank you.

    not sure how I missed it there, or how google did. I’m at capgeek most every day and i never came across that page somehow.

  68. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Vollman’s new toys:

    http://www.hockeyabstract.com/luck

  69. Ca$h-Money! says:

    rickithebear,

    Monohan as #1 C isn’t going to happen. Backlund more likely. Stajan as it sits.

    Galliardi is a winger as I understand it, so Monohan @ 3C.. not sure who is 4C right now. Probably Horak.

  70. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Romulus Apotheosis,

    Looks like we were fairly lucky last year… adding some confirmation that we really were terrible last year and the marginal up-tick in the standings was a complete mirage.

  71. supernova says:

    G Money,

    uss99: No need to do it now, Cap is sure to go up next offseason.

    I find it interesting that teams are signing contracts assuming that the cap is sure to go up. The cap is driven off hockey-related-revenue. The biggest driver over the last decade in HRR going up is that the Canadian dollar went from 60% US to over par. That trend at least for now has reversed. While it may do nothing more than hold steady, the cyclical nature of currencies is more suggestive that we’ll see a decline in the Canadian dollar relative to the US dollar. Which means that HRR will go sideways or even down.

    If you’re a team signing contracts on the basis of the cap going up, and it actually goes down – what a world of hurt that will be.

    G Money

    Granted what you are saying is quite logical in that you shouldn’t be signing contracts based on a presumptive increase. There is plenty of information out there that absolutely points two cap increases over the next 2 years, so even if the CAD slides down to 85 or 90 cents on the dollar there will be suffecient increases to the cap. To assume the dollar would slide more than that over the 2 years would be highly unlikely. So long term i agree it is up in the air, but to project more the next two years we can already see alot of writing on the wall.

    The big balancing act to the CAD will be the renewal of Canadian TV Contracts. Some very knowledgeable people think $500 mill / year isn’t out of question. That alone would be a big increase to the cap.

    Also prepare yourselves to not have HNIC on CBC in the new deal. I don’t see a way that, Bell or Rogers lose out in bidding for that content.

  72. Kitchener says:

    Forward depth looks way less desperate if you switch from 6+6 to 9+3. Comments to support the model I’ll propose include:
    – MacT: ‘we’re well down the road to being a possession/skill team’
    – coaching: think in pairs, not lines of 3. (Krueger said this & the asst’s survived; not sure if Eakins has said anything similar?)

    If we look at 9+3 AND assume that some young guns are mature enough to shelter a kid (instead of being sheltered themselves), here’s how it might look:

    1: ____ Hall Eberle
    2: RNH / ___ / Yakupov
    3: Gagner / Perron / Hemsky

    4: Gordon / ___ / ____

    That is quite workable. Or, rotate the lines (1 becomes 2, 3 becomes 1, etc.) if you like. PP1 and PP2 switch back to the consensus top 6 players.

    The interesting candidate to center Hall/Eberle line is Arcobello. It’s not ideal, but if Iginla could score 40 without linemates over and over and over, surely Hall & Eberle can carry a weaker centerman? They’re not rookies anymore.

    For the RNH/___/Yak line, many LW candidates could be mentioned. The intriguing outliers are intriguing are Smyth and Rajala. Likely someone else makes more sense, but who cares? The other two players are #1 picks. I could play that wing.

    The real beauty of this 9+3 setup is that suddenly we’ve got a decent 4th line.

    In sum: why not let the stars earn their contracts on the top 9 by carrying a couple (2!!) weak spots and then have a rock-solid 4th line? Opposition defenses will STILL have to defend 3 (3!!!) #1 draft picks along with Perron, Gagner, and Hemsky.

    If MacT can’t get value for a Hemsky trade, why not use it to our advantage and skate 3 skill lines?

  73. Dead Cat Bounce says:

    Jon Rosen ‏@lakingsinsider 13m

    Jake Muzzin contract: 1 million x 2 years.

    #bargain

  74. rickithebear says:

    So let me get this straight PDO is Save % + shooting %
    so the average save% is .915 and a average shooting percetage is .085 so when you add them you should get a value of 1.000.
    which tells us F all
    Cause the natural progression is to 1.000 but does not happen by average which tells us there are outside factors.

    cause the variant values of the two is .030 for save% and 0.030 shooting % less outside markers.

    So 0.030 + 0.030 the functiuonal variant portion is 0.060 of 1.000 or 6%
    we are seeing variances of one full side of the range and guys are claiming this variance is luck cause yo are look at it versus 100% instead of the real range of 6%

    so anyone who says a 3 percent variance in save % is about luck.
    yoiu are saying it is 100% luck and zero skill!
    that is just stupid!

  75. linkfromhyrule says:

    Kitchener:
    Forward depth looks way less desperate if you switch from 6+6 to 9+3.Comments to support the model I’ll propose include: – MacT:‘we’re well down the road to being a possession/skill team’ – coaching: think in pairs, not lines of 3.(Krueger said this & the asst’s survived; not sure if Eakins has said anything similar?)

    If we look at 9+3 AND assume that some young guns are mature enough to shelter a kid (instead of being sheltered themselves), here’s how it might look:

    1: ____ HallEberle
    2: RNH / ___ / Yakupov
    3: Gagner / Perron / Hemsky

    4: Gordon / ___ / ____

    That is quite workable.Or, rotate the lines (1 becomes 2, 3 becomes 1, etc.) if you like.PP1 and PP2 switch back to the consensus top 6 players.

    The interesting candidate to center Hall/Eberle line is Arcobello.It’s not ideal, but if Iginla could score 40 without linemates over and over and over, surely Hall & Eberle can carry a weaker centerman?They’re not rookies anymore.

    For the RNH/___/Yak line, many LW candidates could be mentioned.The intriguing outliers are intriguing are Smyth and Rajala.Likely someone else makes more sense, but who cares? The other two players are #1 picks.I could play that wing.

    The real beauty of this 9+3 setup is that suddenly we’ve got a decent 4th line.

    In sum: why not let the stars earn their contracts on the top 9 by carrying a couple (2!!) weak spots and then have a rock-solid 4th line?Opposition defenses will STILL have to defend 3 (3!!!) #1 draft picks along with Perron, Gagner, and Hemsky.

    If MacT can’t get value for a Hemsky trade, why not use it to our advantage and skate 3 skill lines?

    man… are you high?

  76. böökje says:

    Woodguy: So wait until Hall only has 4 years left until FA and Eberle has 3?

    Sure.

    Just in time to sell them off and start another rebuild.

    Perfect.

    THink about it. The Oilers could get 2-3 first round picks for each of them + a bunch of 1st overalls by tanking. IT would be like the 2009-2013 rebuild, but three times better.

    Great Plan Woodguy!

  77. khildahl says:

    Some of the line suggestions in here today are making me think Pat Quinn is trolling the blog.

  78. Bruce McCurdy says:

    striatic:
    Lander had the worst PDO on the team with the 5ht highest Corsi Rel so i wonder if the “analytics SWAT team” is thinking Lander bounces back.

    Romulus Apotheosis:
    Jesus H. Jesus this Lansky is nuts.

    He just said that at the CBC they took it as job #1 to shape how we viewed the game, its heroes and narratives and then went on to give the most tired anti-Europe BS and pro-Canadian-Content diatribe I have ever heard.

    These guys are dinosaurs.

    My living room filled up with blue smoke during that interview. @#$%^&* outrageous.

  79. G Money says:

    rickithebear: yoiu are saying it is 100% luck and zero skill!
    that is just stupid!

    I buy the idea that PDO is a measure of luck at the individual player level, and share your (apparent) skepticism of PDO as a measure of luck at the team level.

    Good teams *should* have persistently higher shooting percentages. Good teams *should* have persistently higher save percentages. Both of those translate ultimately to goal differential, and goal differential is 100% correlated with team success.

    But I do not understand *your* criticisms at all. Not only is the English in your posts barely coherent, but your grasp of statistics seems questionable too.

    If you really want to test the validity of PDO as a measure of luck, you could (this is only the first test that popped to mind, I’m sure there are other better tests that are less trend sensitive and with fewer confounding factors) correlate PDO over multiple seasons vs team success. If PDO truly is random, you would see minimal correlation over the longer term.

    I suspect the opposite – I think you would see some correlation, since better teams in general score more goals and have better goalies who stop more goals.

    But as far as the ‘that is just stupid!’ comment – if I were a math teacher, I would give you a point for the correct answer, but deduct nine for not showing any valid work.

  80. rickithebear says:

    taking the functional ranges of Save % and shooting % serves the same purpose as PDO
    (+/- 0.015 Save%) + (+/- 0.015 shooting %) regresses to a value of zero for the whole league.
    it eliminates the .970 of non functional range in measure.

    it deals with results as a value of 100%
    not 3% of 100%.
    when luck studies are done and they state a a .013 variant is a dmans influence. measured versus 1.000 that is only 1.3% that is not much influence.
    I continued to laugh every time.
    they made the most basic of errors when presenting results.
    Not understanding you range of data.
    Not 1.000
    +/- 0.015
    the study syas the dmen affect is .013 of 1.000
    that is .013 of .015 (real range) a 87% variance.
    Dmen can affect the scoring rates by 87%

    What is more interesting is .015-.013 = .002
    how can there be avariance of affect versus range?
    Could it be luck?
    that would mean 2 out of 1000 shots are lucky.

  81. commonfan14 says:

    slopitch: But Pronger …. man it could take 20 years to replace him.

    But Nurse will be on the team in 2.

    C’mon, who’s with me!!!

  82. G Money says:

    commonfan14: But Nurse will be on the team in 2.

    C’mon, who’s with me!!!

    Both Nurse AND Klefbom will be better than Pronger! Book it!

    (How’s that?)

  83. russ99 says:

    Romulus Apotheosis,

    Interesting stuff.

    But the injury part is out of whack. Cap hit of injured player assumes that the best players make the most money, and as we know with some of our former players, that’s certainly not true.

  84. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: Random CBA question: what will it take for Klefbom’s ELC to kickstart?
    I imagine it kicks in regardless of whether he plays AHL or NHL hockey? is that right?

    Speeds filled me in on this the other day. Klefbom has to be on the Oilers roster for 40 games for this upcoming year to count as his first NHL season. It is significant in his case because of his July birthday, meaning that if he was a roster player for under 40 games this year, in 7 years he wouldn’t achieve either threshold of the 7/27 standard for UFA’s. (He’ll still be 26 on July 1, 2020) Apparently the same exception applied to Shea Weber last year, which is why he was still RFA.

  85. khildahl says:

    Bruce McCurdy:
    My living room filled up with blue smoke during that interview. @#$%^&* outrageous.

    To add to the smoke:
    I saw an excerpt from a Don Cherry interview the other day where he was quoted as stating “nobody wants European goalies in the CHL” and that we have tolerate American players because there are teams in the US. Can’t recall where I saw it, but the comments after the article were even worse.

  86. russ99 says:

    Bruce McCurdy,

    Wow, that’s a juicy tidbit. So we can expect a Klefbom call-up in mid-January?

  87. justDOit says:

    commonfan14: But Nurse will be on the team in 2.

    C’mon, who’s with me!!!

    Comparing Nurse to Pronger makes me queasy – he was on his 2nd team before he showed real promise as a complete player!

  88. jonrmcleod says:

    rickithebear: Am i mistaken or are ther three potential 30 G scorers on each line?

    You are mistaken.

  89. Bruce McCurdy says:

    striatic:
    Lander had the worst PDO on the team with the 5ht highest Corsi Rel so i wonder if the “analytics SWAT team” is thinking Lander bounces back.

    Lander had some pretty bizarre numbers last year, a couple of which you touch on here. His Corsi Rel of +5.3 was fourth best behind only Eberle-Hall-RNH, but his shots ON goal results were nothing special. At all. Among Oiler forwards with 10+ GP, Lander was 13th of 18 with a shot differential of -10.1 per 60, or put another way, a Shots% of .404. Both figures were still “good” enough to finish ahead of VandeVelde, Belanger, Eager, Petrell, and Brown, but I’d put even money on Lowetide, Woodguy, Rickithebear, “Steve Smith” and Book¡e finishing ahead of those guys.

    The odd thing about Lander was his bizarre rate of missed shots, 11.8 for, 5.9 against for a +5.9 net on a squad where every other forward on the team was minus in this subcategory. So that swayed his Corsi & Rel Corsi but not his shots on goal data, making Lander better or worse depending on how much you value missed shots. (Not much, at face value.)

    Bottom line is Lander is an outlier with a small sample size embedded within a season of small sample sizes. It is my more general observation that there are a lot of weird shots results around the NHL in 2013, and the stump season itself was a huge contributor. Not enough regression, so more weird results.

    From an analytics perspective, my conclusion is “handle with care”, especially for a player who is all over the map from one category to another.

    That said, Lander’s low PDO that you also cite is the least likely of all those numbers to be repeated; based as it is on just four scoring plays it should pretty much be ignored.

  90. G Money says:

    russ99:
    Romulus Apotheosis,

    Interesting stuff.

    But the injury part is out of whack. Cap hit of injured player assumes that the best players make the most money, and as we know with some of our former players, that’s certainly not true.

    Actually, the whole ‘luck’ exercise is more visually interesting than valid.

    You rightfully question the CHIP value, but in fact, it looks to me like the CHIP value is the only variable on that list that is not correlated with the others. That is to say, it does in fact look ‘random’.

    The other four however, are much more highly correlated. I didn’t actually run the correlation values on the data, but you can see it clearly visually. Not sure whether that’s a coincidental correlation or there is in fact some behind the scene relationship that links PDO, STI, 1 goal, OT …

    Either way, the analysis takes a bunch of values that may or may not be good measures of the underlying factors, four of which are highly correlated, then combines them to create a ‘luck’ value that really seems, as I said, interesting but almost meaningless.

  91. Bruce McCurdy says:

    G Money,

    G Money: Not sure whether that’s a coincidental correlation or there is in fact some behind the scene relationship that links PDO, STI, 1 goal, OT …

    Pretty clearly there will be a relationship between one-goal games & overtime games.

  92. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Bruce McCurdy,

    I’d have LT steer Lansky to more of a “stories of the good ole days” kind of segment. The two interviews I’ve heard with him have had me pulling out my hair.

    ps. Picked up “Nursery Cryme” on vinyl for a cool $1 at Circus on the Danforth in the middle of our historic rainfall day earlier this week. Decent LP. definitely better than “Wind and Wuthering.” Still not sold that there is a Genesis prog album as good as “Thick as a Brick” or “Fragile” though. Anyway, love the cover. oddly enough, I just bought the finance a croquet set for her b-day. thanks for the tip.

  93. rickithebear says:

    jonrmcleod: You are mistaken.

    Just that i listen to 960 in calgary on way home. galliardi stated he played both!

    But i will defer and take it I am wrong.

    Further to luck DD had two off the chart lucky goals against him in Feb versus dallas or we are talking about a .923 Save % goalie.
    the best high shot goalie in the game.
    just how a lack of a full season cause issues with this years a stats.

  94. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Bruce McCurdy: Speeds filled me in on this the other day. Klefbom has to be on the Oilers roster for 40 games for this upcoming year to count as his first NHL season. It is significant in his case because of his July birthday, meaning that if he was a roster player for under 40 games this year, in 7 years he wouldn’t achieve either threshold of the 7/27 standard for UFA’s. (He’ll still be 26 on July 1, 2020) Apparently the same exception applied to Shea Weber last year, which is why he was still RFA.

    I remember reading one of his posts on here about that and that’s what had me thinking… I couldn’t recall the details…

    SO… exit question… do the Oilers know this (or do we have another Ricky O situation on our hands)? and will they exploit it?

    I would.

    “Klef, expect to work hard in OKC this year and when N. Schultz gets traded at the deadline for a draft pick you can play out the season with the big club.”

  95. ashley says:

    To the armchair GM’s:

    What do you mean when you say “lots of work to do” for the bottom 6? Where is this surplus of talented players going to come from?

    We just saw a great example of the current NHL where a team had to give up quality to get quality (PRV for Perron) and we mostly whined with displeasure. Trades are lateral moves that can bring balance. Expecting MacT to magically improve the roster via trade is unrealistic.

    So that leaves free agents and draft. Signing a heavy contract adds negative value to the roster. Bringing in a headcase like Grabovski when they have worked so hard to create the right culture brings negative value to the dressing room. There is a reason 29 other GM’s haven’t turned an eye toward Grabovski.

    MacT and his lackeys are looking under every rock to fill this out (Belov, Acton, etc). It’s not as simple as “grabbing”, “prying”, and “flipping” players as it is made out to be on this blog. Maybe that works on fantasy hockey or something.

    This might be as good as it gets for this year, and I think we have done reasonably well.

    I would keep Hemsky. Why trade him for junk? Hemsky is a real, high quality NHL player. You can never have too many of those. Maybe we lose him for a draft pick at the deadline, or for nothing next summer. That’s a worst case scenerio.

    Alternatively, he catches fire and really enjoys playing for Eakins and this young evolving team and stays on with us in the prime of his career. How old is he? 29? Detroit doesn’t even acquire free agents or trades until they are at least 36. Why give up that Hemsky opportunity for a 4th line checker?

    I expect this to be a bubble team next year, and Hemsky could be the difference in making the second season.

  96. misfit says:

    Phoenix is definitely one of the teams that would likely have serious interest in Hemsky. Tippet did an interview during their prospect camp where he basically said they were going to sit down and review their roster options next week.

    So aside from free agency, it doesn’t look like Phoenix has even begun to shape their roster or look too hard at trade targets, and are still quite early in the process. Discussions on Hemsky could pick up if they decide that a RHS for their powerplay is something they want to add.

    They had the league’s 6th wost PP last year and have a lot of LH shots on their team. Doan, Vrbata, and Moss are their only RHSs up front.

  97. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    russ99: But the injury part is out of whack. Cap hit of injured player assumes that the best players make the most money, and as we know with some of our former players, that’s certainly not true.

    Vollman said he was still tinkering with it… I’m surprised he didn’t use the usual measure (games lost to injury)… clearly cap hit is an attempt to control for the value of the player games lost… but as you say, it’s a flawed control model… maybe there is a better one.

    at any rate, in the aggregate, it may work better than in specific cases.

    As far as “luck” in general goes… it is such a thorny subject, it’s hard to know where to start. Ever since Aristotle introduced “accidental causation” there is really a huge literature on the subject. Moral philosophy and the new and growing field of “moral luck” has really opened a lot of eyes about how we think and talk about luck.

    A weird jumble of our language, psychology and cultural norms leads us to strongly favor explanations for events that exclude luck, randomness, etc. And when we do address luck it is almost always discussed as an isolated, exceptional event, like the one Ricki points to above. We are highly committed to the idea that events are the result of some motivated actor intending a specific result who is in control of his environment.

  98. Young Oil says:

    I know there has been discussion about trying to get players from teams who have cap problems, and I’m surprised Toronto hasn’t been mentioned much. they have about $10M to sign Kadri, Gunnarson, and Franson, as well as Komarov and Fraser if they choose to. Kadri had 44 points in 48 games, I would expect he would be asking for $5-6M, and Franson had 29 points in 45 games…that’s 53 points in a full season, so I wouldn’t be surprised if he would be asking $4-5M…something has to give.

    Maybe getting Kulemin ($2.8M) for cheap is more possible than we think.

  99. Tarkus says:

    Romulus Apotheosis:
    Bruce McCurdy,

    ps. Picked up “Nursery Cryme” on vinyl for a cool $1 at Circus on the Danforth in the middle of our historic rainfall day earlier this week. Decent LP. definitely better than “Wind and Wuthering.” Still not sold that there is a Genesis prog album as good as “Thick as a Brick” or “Fragile” though. Anyway, love the cover. oddly enough, I just bought the finance a croquet set for her b-day. thanks for the tip.

    Oooooh…prog! Interest piqued. (As evidenced by my username.)

    Nursery Cryme barely makes my 3 favorite Gabriel-era Genesis albums: “The Return of the Giant Hogweed” and “The Fountain of Salmacis” are my favorite tunes from that album.

    I’d suggest Selling England By The Pound is the finest album they made with Gabriel. “The Cinema Show” is outstanding, and may only be topped by “Supper’s Ready” for my favorite Genesis song PERIOD.

    I’d slot The Lamb Lies Down on Broadway between Nursery Cryme and Selling England By The Pound on my list. As Lowetide would say, “Your mileage may vary”.

    BTW, Fragile is indeed good, even if it’s quite disjointed with all the solo pieces scattered throughout. (Favorite song from that album: “South Side of the Sky”.)

    I never did get into Thick as a Brick, but then I don’t know a ton of Tull aside from Aqualung and A Passion Play.

    EDIT: If you ever have unwanted guests at your place and want to clear them out in world-record time, crank this up: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8sJj4KTFC_Y

  100. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    ashley,

    I don’t see any reason why we should settle for the bottom 6 we have.

    I’m not sure anyone said things would be easy here. UFAs may not want to come here, they may want too much cake or term, etc. Trades may not be available or at too dear a price.

    But I sure hope MacT is trying like hell to address that bottom 6. I think that is what is reflected in the comments here.

    From MacT’s own words: the bottom of the roster has to at least threaten to score.

    We’re not there yet. If MacT fails to attract UFAs or make good trades… guess what, that means he’s failed (not outright, but in those situations). That is his job afterall.

    Also… I think the character assassination on Grabo is a bit much. reminds me of the scouts table in Moneyball: “he’s got an ugly girlfriend”

  101. justDOit says:

    Tarkus,

    That’s good! No – GREAT! My teenage daughter immediately left the room.

  102. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: Picked up “Nursery Cryme” on vinyl for a cool $1 at Circus on the Danforth in the middle of our historic rainfall day earlier this week. Decent LP. definitely better than “Wind and Wuthering.” Still not sold that there is a Genesis prog album as good as “Thick as a Brick” or “Fragile” though. Anyway, love the cover. oddly enough, I just bought the finance a croquet set for her b-day. thanks for the tip.

    Hmm, I’m a BIG fan of both “Fragile” and “Thick As A Brick” but would rank any one of the four “real” Genesis albums right there with both of those classics. Steve Hackett & Phil Collins were just finding their chops in “Nursery Cryme”, the quintet achieved their peak with “Foxtrot” and “Selling England ty the Pound”. They were arguably beginning to come apart by “The Lamb Lies Down On Broadway” which many of the band members thought had too many words, with some of those vocals obscuring what might have been splendid instrumentals in their own right. It was during the tour of “The Lamb” that Peter Gabriel announced his imminent departure from the band. (That was the day that prepared me for the departure of Wayne Gretzky all those years later.)

    Still, if it’s a concept album (or should I say, double album) you are after, “The Lamb” is tasty stuff. Here’s an hors-d’oeuvre for your listening pleasure.

  103. G Money says:

    Bruce McCurdy: Pretty clearly there will be a relationship between one-goal games & overtime games.

    Ha ha! Nice! But I made the assumption that ’1 goal games’ means regulation, and OT includes SO games, so as not to double count and drive a strong correlation automatically. I may disagree with the validity, statistical or otherwise, of the overall approach, but I’m pretty sure Vollman would not make such an amateur mistake.

  104. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Tarkus: EDIT: If you ever have unwanted guests at your place and want to clear them out in world-record time, crank this up: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8sJj4KTFC_Y

    Can we use that on the bottom six?

  105. Tarkus says:

    Bruce McCurdy: Can we use that on the bottom six?

    The song? Or actual rats and monkeys?

    I suppose if they’re diseased enough, that would tick the “hard-to-play-against” box.

  106. Bruce McCurdy says:

    G Money,

    G Money: Ha ha!Nice!But I made the assumption that ’1 goal games’ means regulation, and OT includes SO games, so as not to double count and drive a strong correlation automatically.I may disagree with the validity, statistical or otherwise, of the overall approach, but I’m pretty sure Vollman would not make such an amateur mistake.

    Fair enough, bears looking into, I haven’t really begun to explore yet so that may well be a faulty assumption on my part.

    I’d be interested to know what percentage of all games were tied after regulation, since those games are worth an average of 1.5 points. Lots of overtime GAMES with a good percentage of overtime/shootout WINS is the ideal combination, but both are important and not necessarily that sustainable.

  107. Dead Cat Bounce says:

    Romulus Apotheosis:
    ashley,

    I don’t see any reason why we should settle for the bottom 6 we have.

    I’m not sure anyone said things would be easy here. UFAs may not want to come here, they may want too much cake or term, etc. Trades may not be available or at too dear a price.

    But I sure hope MacT is trying like hell to address that bottom 6. I think that is what is reflected in the comments here.

    From MacT’s own words: the bottom of the roster has to at least threaten to score.

    We’re not there yet. If MacT fails to attract UFAs or make good trades… guess what, that means he’s failed (not outright, but in those situations). That is his job afterall.

    Also… I think the character assassination on Grabo is a bit much. reminds me of the scouts table in Moneyball: “he’s got an ugly girlfriend”

    Danny Cleary-Matt Lombardi-Brad Boyes

    Mason Raymond-David Steckel-Peter Mueller

  108. speeds says:

    Romulus Apotheosis:
    Random CBA question: what will it take for Klefbom’s ELC to kickstart?

    I imagine it kicks in regardless of whether he plays AHL or NHL hockey? is that right?

    Bruce McCurdy: Speeds filled me in on this the other day. Klefbom has to be on the Oilers roster for 40 games for this upcoming year to count as his first NHL season. It is significant in his case because of his July birthday, meaning that if he was a roster player for under 40 games this year, in 7 years he wouldn’t achieve either threshold of the 7/27 standard for UFA’s. (He’ll still be 26 on July 1, 2020) Apparently the same exception applied to Shea Weber last year, which is why he was still RFA.

    The first year of Klefbom’s ELC will burn whether he plays in the NHL or AHL this season, but it won’t count as a season towards UFA if he plays below the threshold for an “accrued season”. He’ll be a UFA by age in the summer of 2021, but if he plays enough games for EDM this year he’d (likely) be a UFA in 2020 based on the 7 year rule.

  109. Lewis Grant says:

    Lots of smart people have the cap doing this in the next 4 years:

    13/14 65
    14/15 70
    15/16 75
    16/17 80

    Lots of ‘hockey smart’ people aren’t factoring in the performance of the Canadian dollar. It plays a HUGE role in the cap. If the Canadian dollar is down significantly by 13/14 (it is already down), the cap will not go up almost 10%. In fact, it won’t go up at all.

    The assumptions shown above are the same assumptions Kevin Lowe made when he signed Horcoff.

  110. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Tarkus: The song?Or actual rats and monkeys?

    I suppose if they’re diseased enough, that would tick the “hard-to-play-against”box.

    Made me think of this:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bh7bYNAHXxw

    which, oddly enough, made me think of this:

    http://www.deepthoughtsbyjackhandey.com/media.asp?file=104

  111. Магия¹º says:

    Lewis Grant: The assumptions shown above are the same assumptions Kevin Lowe made when he signed Horcoff.

    The assumptions shown above are the same assumptions Kevin Lowe made when MacT tried to sign Clarkson.

  112. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    speeds,

    speaking of wishful thinking… but does that 40 game cut-off include Playoff Games?

  113. ashley says:

    Romulus Apotheosis:
    ashley,

    I don’t see any reason why we should settle for the bottom 6 we have.

    I’m not sure anyone said things would be easy here. UFAs may not want to come here, they may want too much cake or term, etc. Trades may not be available or at too dear a price.

    But I sure hope MacT is trying like hell to address that bottom 6. I think that is what is reflected in the comments here.

    From MacT’s own words: the bottom of the roster has to at least threaten to score.

    We’re not there yet. If MacT fails to attract UFAs or make good trades… guess what, that means he’s failed (not outright, but in those situations). That is his job afterall.

    Also… I think the character assassination on Grabo is a bit much. reminds me of the scouts table in Moneyball: “he’s got an ugly girlfriend”

    I don’t disagree. The bottom 6 is below NHL calibre using last year as a reference point. Some of that may change this year with maturity, but that seems like a Hail Mary when we’re looking at the likes of Jones etc.

    But there is that comment again. “MacT has to address the bottom 6″. How? Where are these players going to come from?

    The remaining free agents are either damaged goods, on steep decline, or are asking for too much term (or all of the above). We don’t need another Belanger or Eager deal. They chose the Oilers because they got 3 year terms out of Tambellini. Too long for an aging veteran and oft injured, marginal NHL’er respectively.

    Maybe as the summer wears on, some of the remaining free agents who have value will lower their asking price/term. Alternatively, we have a plethora of talented prospects that can be given an opportunity in the NHL. If not now, when?

  114. rickithebear says:

    G money: Statistics Boo!
    Real world trend!
    yeah!

    That is whati hated most about Univ.
    proof after proof after proof of pre existing standards.

    what matters is a context based proof for that range of data.
    the portion of the range that is not affected by Dmen and players.
    An uncontrolled value of the working range.
    .002 a quick guess is luck.

    Stats guys spit out stats at a higher math level. I yield to that.
    But not recognizing working range 0.030 to full range 1.000.
    then stating a conclusion on that full range .
    Big mistake.
    Get you fired were i work.

    We need to identify the range and the rational portion of the range.

  115. jbfuzz says:

    If the Oilers intend to trot out both Lander and the new Finnish guy in their bottom 6 on opening night my enthusiasm about some of the changes will be lukewarm. 1 step forward, 1 step back. Hoping they materialize 2 more actual NHL bottom 6 forwards from the ether.

  116. dawgtoy says:

    justDOit,

    Two of my kids plugged their ears and the youngest cried. OMG is that awful.

  117. speeds says:

    Romulus Apotheosis:
    speeds,

    speaking of wishful thinking… but does that 40 game cut-off include Playoff Games?

    From Article 1 of the CBA:

    ” “Accrued Season” means any League Year during which a Player was on a
    Club’s Active Roster for 40 (30 if the Player is a goalie) or more Regular Season Games,
    provided that, for the purposes of calculating an Accrued Season under this Agreement, games
    missed due to a hockey-related injury incurred while on a Club’s Active Roster shall count as
    games played for purposes of calculating an Accrued Season but only during the League Year in
    which the injury was incurred and a maximum of one additional season.”

  118. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    ashley,

    I will walk with you up to the “it’s difficult to achieve a legit bottom 6 now or anytime” but stop short of the defeatist strain in your repeated rhetorical: “But there is that comment again. “MacT has to address the bottom 6″. How? Where are these players going to come from?”

    especially when that repeated rhetorical is in response to people posting various solutions to that very problem.

    As far as flawed players and over-pays: It seems to me all the options mentioned for trade or UFA pickup are significant upgrades on that current bottom 6. it’s not like we would be trading flawed players for gems…

    we don’t know what players are being offered or turning down until deals get done. So far, the UFA market for the lower end roster players has looked pretty reasonable, not many Tambo overpays on $ and term. The Lapierre contract is a good bellweather. 1.1 x 2 (way better deal than Belanger got).

    As for development, I don’t have any problem with the AHL. I think it is the perfect place for guys like Lander, Marincin, Gernat, etc.

  119. Gerta Rauss says:

    ashley

    But there is that comment again.“MacT has to address the bottom 6″.How?Where are these players going to come from?

    Hemsky should be able to bring us back a 3RW or a 4C(you would hope so, at least)
    Hemsky and Musil might bring us back both of those.

    N Schultz at half price($1.75M) should bring back something nice(although if he goes, we need to bring in another vet D)

    No need to panic, it’s only July 12. But Mac T still has some cards to play.

  120. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    speeds: 40 (30 if the Player is a goalie) or more Regular Season Games

    Great! So we call him up after 45 games or so and if we make the playoffs, no worries…

    seems a prudent way to manage long term contract issues.

  121. Magnus says:

    In a trade for Hemsky, here are the options I’d be looking into. Several of these teams have expressed interest in him before. Some of these moves would require more going the other way.

    NYI: Matt Martin – LW – big kid, plays physical. Not much of a scorer at this point, but has potential.
    Kyle Okposo – RW – Very inconsistent offensively, but plays a gritty game.

    BUF: Marcus Foligno – LW – another big, physical young player with potential.
    Drew Stafford – LW – the more likely option. Often rumoured to be of interest.

    CAR: Tuomo Ruutu – F – short on skilled wingers, I see a good fit for both teams. Can play C.

    ANA: Daniel Winnik – F – short on offense, big on size. Ducks need more scoring.

    DET: Justin Abdelkader – F – checker with size & speed.

    NAS: Paul Gaustad – C – Nashville is deep at center & needs more offense. Playing behind
    Legwand, Fisher & Cullen.

    PHX – Antoine Vermette – C – Also deep at center & looking to add offense. Playing behind Ribeiro
    and Hanzal.

  122. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    dawgtoy:
    justDOit,

    Two of my kids plugged their ears and the youngest cried. OMG is that awful.

    There’s always Ornette Coleman:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ScME4cv2qXI

    Love him… but it’s an acquired taste to say the least.

  123. Mr DeBakey says:

    http://i19.photobucket.com/albums/b154/spyboy1/TSG%20Blog%202013/Thoresen_Norway2012.jpg

    Norway’s Patrick Thoresen finished second in scoring in 2012, one point back of Evgeni Malkin who had the benefit of playing two additional games.

  124. Henry says:

    Question for those in the know.

    Does Jeff Petry have arbitration rights next summer? Should MacT think about signing him through a few UFA seasons now so he doesn’t have the same problem with him that we currently have with Gagner? Petry is cheap now, but won’t be forever.

  125. ashley says:

    Romulus Apotheosis,

    A little condescending Rom, but it’s ok, my skin has never been thin.

    The problem with the solutions proposed is that they are from some sort of fantasyland. Often I read them, and I wonder why any sane GM would ever make the deal. Some one else’s quality for our junk.

    True we don’t know what free agent wheeling and dealing is going on. So we’ll have to see. A bottom 6 gem may yet arrive.

    Anyway, I suspect we agree on more than we disagree.

  126. ashley says:

    Gerta Rauss: Hemsky should be able to bring us back a 3RW or a 4C(you would hope so, at least)
    Hemsky and Musil might bring us back both of those.

    N Schultz at half price($1.75M) should bring back something nice(although if he goes, we need to bring in another vet D)

    No need to panic, it’s only July 12. But Mac T still has some cards to play.

    But this is whack-a-mole. Why not just keep what we have. The difference between the roster with Hemsky and N Schultz and a roster with whatever they return in a trade will probably be insignificant.

  127. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    ashley:
    Romulus Apotheosis,

    A little condescending Rom, but it’s ok, my skin has never been thin.

    The problem with the solutions proposed is that they are from some sort of fantasyland.Often I read them, and I wonder why any sane GM would ever make the deal.Some one else’s quality for our junk.

    True we don’t know what free agent wheeling and dealing is going on.So we’ll have to see.A bottom 6 gem may yet arrive.

    Anyway, I suspect we agree on more than we disagree.

    I’m not sure I was condescending. Not sure where that comes from…

    It just strikes me as odd and vaguely defeatist to take people to task for trying to solve a problem you admit exists by asking where the solutions are going to come from… it’s oddly circular.

    At any rate, it would probably be more productive if we argued over some of the solutions you object to and why you think they are unreasonable or whathaveyou.

    ashley: But this is whack-a-mole. Why not just keep what we have. The difference between the roster with Hemsky and N Schultz and a roster with whatever they return in a trade will probably be insignificant.

    For myself (and I think judging by the comments here many others) keeping Hemsky seems like a ideal solution to the 3W problem. but MacT said his ideal was to move the player… it seems fair in that context to try and game out various returns and how they may affect the roster.

    N.Schultz is a different matter… we’ve suddenly got a lot of good (not great) LDs and need some help at RD… plus he gets a lot of money for a 3rd pairing guy if that’s where he ends up and his contract expires this year. He’s the best candidate to move on if either Ranger or someone else comes in.

  128. Gerta Rauss says:

    ashley: But this is whack-a-mole.Why not just keep what we have.The difference between the roster with Hemsky and N Schultz and a roster with whatever they return in a trade will probably be insignificant.

    I’ve stated repeatedly that I’m fine building a 3line around Hemsky.

    x-Gordon-Hemsky is 2/3 of a nice line.

    Mac T has said a number of times now that Horc and Hemsky might need a fresh start elsewhere(I’m paraphrasing) With Horc gone now, I don’t think it’s unreasonable to assume that Hemsky will be moved as well(agree or disagree, but I think it’s a decision that has been made already)

    If you accept the above statement, ask yourself what holes need to be filled then-the top 6 is set(I’m assuming Gagner gets signed) The answer is 3LW, 3RW and 4C. We could fill all those roles in house, but again, I’m assuming Hemsky is going to be moved.

    Mac T hasn’t addressed the “meat” quotient in the lineup either. Perron brings “grit” but he ain’t heavy.I think we’ll see meat in (some of)those roster spots.

    N Schultz could be moved for an upgraded D- Schultz($1.75M) for Dan Girardi would give Sather a little more spending money(he still has Stepan and Zuccarello to sign)

  129. ashley says:

    Romulus Apotheosis,

    I was hoping to stimulate interesting debate rather than “take people to task”. If my post came across aggressively, it was not meant that way.

    The argument appears entirely linear from my end. The bottom 6 is bad, but there may not be a whole lot we can do about it without painting ourselves into a corner or making a long term commitment. We’ll see. Anyway, as you say, specific player arguments are probably a better way to debate this.

    Fair point on N Schultz LD. However, Dmen aren’t always restricted to one side, so I’m not sure the LD/RD thing needs to be a burning issue. Some play either side quite well.

  130. ashley says:

    Gerta Rauss,

    Agree with most of that. But I would hate to see Hemsky go for a bottom 6 checker. There is a reasonable probability we would regret that.

  131. FastOil says:

    Fantasyland:

    N Schultz, Hemsky (retain a bit to provide cap relief), Gernat or Musil, or pick

    for

    Phaneuf, Kulemin

    Possible? I am not sure how the Leafs are on each player, but there is benefit both ways.

  132. lance says:

    Since Gagner and Bogosian are both RFAs and filing for arbitration, if both end up in the same 1 year deal then UFA, does it interest either team to trade?

    I wonder how calls like those happen. “If you’re getting nowhere with your guy, call me because we’re getting nowhere with ours.”

  133. Doug McLachlan says:

    Is there any interest in, the admittedly injury-ravaged, RW Peter Mueller?

    His age, 25, and size 6’2″ 204lbs look good. He has a solid draft pedigree as an 8th overall pick, which used to impress the Oiler’s brian trust, and in his rookie season (and for a brief period after being traded to Colorado) there looked to be a player here.

    This past season he managed to get into 43 of 48 games – pretty good for him.

    Not fully sure how the fancy stats look for him but as a third line winger, I think he has more promise to provide an offensive threat than Jones does or is there a glaring problem with his RelCorsi that my saw him good mind is overlooking?

  134. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    ashley:
    Romulus Apotheosis,

    I was hoping to stimulate interesting debate rather than “take people to task”.If my post came across aggressively, it was not meant that way.

    The argument appears entirely linear from my end.The bottom 6 is bad, but there may not be a whole lot we can do about it without painting ourselves into a corner or making a long term commitment.We’ll see.Anyway, as you say, specific player arguments are probably a better way to debate this.

    Fair point on N Schultz LD.However, Dmen aren’t always restricted to one side, so I’m not sure the LD/RD thing needs to be a burning issue.Some play either side quite well.

    cool. no blown tires over here.

    I would really hope Hemsky stays too or that the return is better than Winnick or Smith or whatever… but I don’t think it is going to be and LT’s guess about MacT’s thinking here: “Deal Hemsky for immediate help (even if its a checker)” seems like the best we can hope for.

    One year of Hemsky at 5M isn’t worth that much it would appear…. that’s why many (yourself included it sounds like) wonder about the whole idea of trading him the first place.

    As for UFAs, how do you feel about Raymond, Grabo, Mueller,Brunner and Steckel (those are the names I’ve seen around here the most)?

    all in their 20s (Steckel is the exception, 31; Grabo is pushing it at 29). none are perfect fits, and some may want too much cake… but I hope MacT is talking to their agents… at the right price each could really help us out.

    as for switching sides on D… I don’t really know anything about the subject… but I found this article at Tyler’s place very interesting, give it a look see:

    http://www.mc79hockey.com/?p=6215

  135. commonfan14 says:
  136. Gerta Rauss says:

    ashley,

    Fair enough-I’m long past “getting something good” if we trade Hemsky. I’m now into “getting something useful”

    We should have traded Hemsky at the same deadline as the Penner trade-he had much more value then.

    And this is coming from a big Hemsky fan-I’ve already reconciled, it’s time to move on.

  137. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Doug McLachlan: Not fully sure how the fancy stats look for him but as a third line winger, I think he has more promise to provide an offensive threat than Jones does or is there a glaring problem with his RelCorsi that my saw him good mind is overlooking?

    http://www.behindthenet.ca/nhl_statistics.php?ds=30&f1=2012_s&f2=5v5&f4=C+LW+RW&f5=FLA&f7=20-&c=0+1+3+5+4+6+7+8+13+14+29+30+32+33+34+45+46+63+67

    looks solid… big zs push though

  138. jonrmcleod says:

    Let me put on my Richard Cloutier cap…

    I can see MacT making two more moves–these two moves will result in the Oilers acquiring two wingers with size for the third line. Hemsky will be dealt for one. And the one of the Oilers’ excess blueliners will be traded for the other. The end result will be that the Oilers have three solid forward lines.

  139. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    jonrmcleod:
    Let me put on my Richard Cloutier cap…

    I can see MacT making two more moves–these two moves will result in the Oilers acquiring two wingers with size for the third line. Hemsky will be dealt for one. And the one of the Oilers’ excess blueliners will be traded for the other. The end result will be that the Oilers have three solid forward lines.

    Don’t stop there!

    add a 4C and either Ranger and/or a top 1 or 2 D. but, yes… looking good.

  140. justDOit says:

    dawgtoy:
    justDOit,

    Two of my kids plugged their ears and the youngest cried. OMG is that awful.

    I don’t mind the music – it would be better as an instrumental, instead of just mental.

  141. Woodguy says:

    Lewis Grant:
    Lots of smart people have the cap doing this in the next 4 years:

    13/14 65
    14/15 70
    15/16 75
    16/17 80

    Lots of ‘hockey smart’ people aren’t factoring in the performance of the Canadian dollar.It plays a HUGE role in the cap.If the Canadian dollar is down significantly by 13/14 (it is already down), the cap will not go up almost 10%.In fact, it won’t go up at all.

    The assumptions shown above are the same assumptions Kevin Lowe made when he signed Horcoff.

    Hi Lewis,

    Please include evidence if you are going to question me.

    Otherwise don’t bother.

    In terms of the historical exchange rate of the US/CAN $, look at this:

    Let’s take it back to the lock out:

    2005 0.826569
    2006 0.881772
    2007 0.935147
    2008 0.944173
    2009 0.880059
    2010 0.970701
    2011 1.011464
    2012 1.000230
    2013 0.982456

    I’m now (through MAGIC) am going to post the same list with the NHL salary cap:

    2005 0.826569 $39MM
    2006 0.881772 $44MM
    2007 0.935147 $50.3MM
    2008 0.944173 $56.7MM
    2009 0.880059 $59.8MM
    2010 0.970701 $59.4MM
    2011 1.011464 $64.3MM
    2012 1.000230 $70.2MM
    2013 0.982456 $64.3 MM (artificially agreed to)

    While the influence of the Canadian $ is surely felt, to say:

    .It plays a HUGE role in the cap.If the Canadian dollar is down significantly by 13/14 (it is already down), the cap will not go up almost 10%.In fact, it won’t go up at all.

    ..leads me to assume you do not know a clue about this. I’m probably right.

    The Canadian $ has appreciated 18% from 2005 to 2012.

    The NHL Salary cap appreciated 64.8% from 2005 to 2012.

    If we look at the latest, recession years:

    The Canadian $ has appreciated 3% from 2010 – 2012

    The NHL Salary cap has appreciated 18%.

    While the Canadian $ has had significant influence in the NHL Salary cap, to say:

    Lots of ‘hockey smart’ people aren’t factoring in the performance of the Canadian dollar.It plays a HUGE role in the cap.If the Canadian dollar is down significantly by 13/14 (it is already down), the cap will not go up almost 10%.In fact, it won’t go up at all.

    …is just dumb.

    Today the Canadian dollar closed at 0.9619.

    I buy lots of US$ for my business, and currently we are projecting 0.92 by year end for planning purposes so we don’t fuck ourselves during planning.

    Even if the C$ dropped 10% like you said, the other increasing sources of revenue are increasing.

  142. ashley says:

    Romulus Apotheosis,

    I like Antropov, and I’m curious why he hasn’t been signed. I can only imagine that he is asking for term 3 years or more, and no one wants to give it. I’d keep him close and see if he’ll settle for a two year deal as summer wears on.

    Interesting article from Dellow. I hadn’t seen it. Thanks.

Leave a Reply

Want to join the discussion?
Feel free to contribute!

Leave a Reply

© Copyright - Lowetide.ca