RE 13-14 JESSE JOENSUU: LIFE ON MARS?

Jesse Joensuu appears to be a very similar player to Teemu Hartikainen–a big, skilled forward who is searching for consistency and a home in the NHL. He enters camp about where Hartikainen would have, and as with Hartikainen has some things to recommend him.

RE 2013-14: 51, 7-7-14

  1. How many LW’s are there going to be? There’s a few more, but we’ll move over to center tomorrow and pick up the other LWs at the end of the RE.
  2. Did you read that thing Willis wrote about him? You mean this? Yes.
  3. Doug Weight liked him. Yes, Weight (in NYI management now) said: “Three years ago he was here, and he wasn’t in shape and he was still young. This year he came back and he is fit now, he’s living the right way, he’s very focused. It was unfortunate for him the minute he got here in camp, he had a nagging problem throughout the summer, you know those hernias that everybody gets, and he had to take care of it. With a shortened season he was never able to get off the ground here. Very big kid, he will take the puck to the net; he’s going to compete. He came in and played a game in the playoffs for us and really competed, he played physical and he’s a big Finnish kid that’s going to score some goals around the net. You mix him with, I mean obviously the list of your talent up front is ridiculous with RNH and Eberle and Hall and Sam [Gagner] and now David Perron; you guys got so many guys, it’s crazy. He’ll be able to fit in there and be able to contribute.”
  4. Sounds impressive. Well, sounds like he’s going to give this a real shot, and that’s a very good thing. I had heard one of the reasons the Oilers weren’t that thrilled with Hartikainen during his final callup (this was right after MacT took over) was conditioning. Don’t have any way to confirm, but if that”s true then one area that Joensuu may be superior (the two Finns look like similar players on paper) may be in that area.
  5. With that Weight quote, shouldn’t the RE be better? My RE was established before I read that, and honestly the idea is “reasonable expectations” for each player. Weight’s report is interesting, and encouraging, but the idea of RE is to take things like Weight’s quote out of the equation and look at the numbers/opportunity.
  6. Where will he play? I have him fourth line, mostly LW and a little RW. If we add all of the GP for Hall, Perron, Smyth, Jones and Joensuu in the RE, we get 335 NHL games, or about one season’s worth of 4line. We’re going to see this with Belov, too: although we as fans will be cheering for Joensuu to step smartly into a strong top 9 role (he’s a Finn!)  reasonable expectations have him working his way into an everyday role on the 4line and waiting for his chance to move up in the order.
  7. He’s HUGE! Right, and there are some encouraging words about two way ability in there. It’s a decent bet in my opinion. I just don’t think we should grade him on number of hits, let’s see if he can play the game and score a little.
  8. You don’t seem convinced. Oh, I think he has a really good chance here, his competition is Ryan Smyth (a wonderful player for years but nearing the end) and Ryan Jones (an offensive winger trying to overcome injury) and Joensuu is a young man with some nice things (size, 2-way play, some skill of his own). But, here in reasonable it’s best not to get ahead of yourself. Joensuu is signed for 2 seasons at less than $1M per year–he could fill a 4line job and not be overpaid.
  9. What’s best case scenario? He arrives in Edmonton and establishes right away he can play with skill. Two goals in his first pre-season game (one on the PP) and a nice defensive play have the coaching staff eager to get another look.
  10. Does that ever happen? Sure it does, teams sign guys for certain roles and they deliver in pre-season and carry the day. Kyle Brodziak did that in 2007, although often the changeover happens during mid-season injury or slump (Pisani passing Cleary).
  11. Is he a lock for a roster spot? Yes, I’d say so. Unlike Ben Eager, Joensuu’s resume looks stronger on the skill side (taking, making a pass) and less strong on the brawn side. If he can play, he can play. If we’re happy with his skills and performance and people are bitching about his lack of physical play, I’m fine with it.
  12. Why this song? Great song, incredible vocal. Bowie couldn’t be boring if he tried. And of course the song is about discovery, something we’re all going to experience when it comes to this player. It’s also, apparently, about heartbreak a little, and that’s a perfect song for a new Oiler.

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33 Responses to "RE 13-14 JESSE JOENSUU: LIFE ON MARS?"

  1. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    What is that creature on that alternate Isles jersey in the photo above? I’ve never seen that jersey.

    ——–
    “Weight’s report is interesting, and encouraging, but the idea of RE is to take things like Weight’s quote out of the equation and look at the numbers/opportunity.”

    Bingo! Nice to hear, but we don’t need another Stevey-Y and Finn situation.

    ——-
    “although we as fans will be cheering for Joensuu to step smartly into a strong top 9 role (he’s a Finn!) reasonable expectations have him working his way into an everyday role on the 4line and waiting for his chance to move up in the order.”

    Here’s hoping MacT is still trying to snag Clifford for Musil + (or equivalent)… but doing so in the full knowledge that Joensuu may very well be Clifford already and in his back pocket for next to nothing.

    This signing is not just replacing Harti, but perhaps insurance against forcing the issue with the bottom 6 with an overpay. Or, so I hope.

    ——–
    LIfe on Mars?

    “Take a look at the lawman
    Beating up the wrong guy
    Oh man! Wonder if he’ll ever know
    He’s in the best selling show”

    Every time I hear this song, I think about these lines and wonder over that phrase “wrong guy”… why is the lawman supposed to be beating anyone up? Every guy is the wrong guy. Still, sucks for the guy that got beat up… essentially for our entertainment!

    ——–
    On that final gif… reminds me of one of the bleakest films I’ve ever seen, which is also very, very funny.

    Herzog’s Stroszek (1977):

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bm3B82Q5vhY

    The final chapter of sorts is here. Right before this scene Stroszek steals a frozen turkey in a very bizarre heist and then in the clip above ends up in a strip mall amusement park where the camera pauses on an extremely cruel and bitterly funny “chicken dance” machine.

  2. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Those pictures of Bowie and “the girl with the mousey hair”

    http://backtothesixties60.blogspot.ca/2012/12/the-girl-with-mousy-hair-hermione.html

    remind me of this:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EsSlOGzPM90

  3. Lowetide says:

    Sound Tiger. He was a Bridgeport Sound Tiger (AHL).

  4. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Lowetide:
    Sound Tiger. He was a Bridgeport Sound Tiger (AHL).

    Ahh… makes sense.

    So… what is a “sound tiger”?

    Apparently, it is a reference to the Long Island Sound, in the geographical sense… so, unfortunately, I have not discovered a new big cat.

    For syntactical clarity, it should probably read, “The Tigers of Bridgeport Sound”

  5. Bar_Qu says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: Ahh… makes sense.

    So… what is a “sound tiger”?

    Apparently, it is a reference to the Long Island Sound, in the geographical sense… so, unfortunately, I have not discovered a new big cat.

    For syntactical clarity, it should probably read, “The Tigers of Bridgeport Sound”

    As we know, hockey is renowned for its emphasis on syntactical clarity. Proper grammatical usage, in general.

  6. VanOil says:

    If I like Joensuu as much as the British TV show Life on Mars we are in the clover. If he is like the crappy American remake, well then its not good things.

  7. "Steve Smith" says:

    My girlfriend – a native German speaker (although sufficiently fluent in English that she teaches it for a living) – was at an Oil Kings game a few years ago. “What the fuck is a Hat Tiger?” she asked.

    Sound tigers and hat tigers and bears, oh my.

  8. DeadmanWaking says:

    Edmonton Oilers were worst team in NHL last season, analytics expert concludes by way of Staples yesterday.

    I’ve been stupidly busy lately so I’ll just make a quick observation: Vollman’s method is the right place to begin, but you can’t stop there and draw valid conclusions. He’s forgotten statistics 101: Independent and identically distributed random variables. The more clever one becomes, the easier it is to lose track of the i.i.d. requirement.

    There are actually two driving processes in regression to the mean: one is stochastic and the other is game theoretic. Just to make the point extreme for brevity, if you’ve got five consecutive first overall picks running your first unit PP and it’s shooting lights out one season, the main reason it regresses the next season is that your clever GM figures out that Thor’s own pomade does not fully counterbalance carrying three lines of Soggy Bottom shack-o-longs.

    Glorious excess falls prey to the game theoretic tall poppy syndrome. This is not a stochastic process, meaning that some regression is not attributable to luck. I’m not even getting into score effects.

    Vollman’s method as described by Staples will inherently underestimate the strength of the teams with the least balanced rosters where the game theoretic force is strongest.

  9. Rocknrolla says:

    I miss Esa Tikkanen.

  10. Truth Movement says:

    Romulus Apotheosis:

    ——–
    On that final gif… reminds me of one of the bleakest films I’ve ever seen, which is also very, very funny.

    Herzog’s Stroszek (1977):

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bm3B82Q5vhY

    The final chapter of sorts is here. Right before this scene Stroszek steals a frozen turkey in a very bizarre heist and then in the clip above ends up in a strip mall amusement park where the camera pauses on an extremely cruel and bitterly funny “chicken dance” machine.

    An Oilers blog where the commenters reference Herzog’s Stroszek? Good Lord, I’ve found my home. Also, while Ralph Kreuger may have had a slight resemblence to Klaus Kinski, it’s Kevin Lowe I picture laughing maniacally while alone on a boat full of monkeys.

    Also, the parallels between the last few Oilers seasons and Fitzcarraldo are startling.

  11. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    “Steve Smith”:
    My girlfriend – a native German speaker (although sufficiently fluent in English that she teaches it for a living) – was at an Oil Kings game a few years ago.“What the fuck is a Hat Tiger?” she asked.

    Sound tigers and hat tigers and bears, oh my.

    Ahh, “The Hat Tigers of Medicine.” Some of my favorite hat tigers are from there.

    A friend of mine had “ἓν πάντα” tattooed on his arm. A reference to Heraclitus DK Fragment B50:

    Ἡ. μὲν οὖν φησιν εἶναι τὸ πᾶν διαιρετὸν ἀδιαίρετον, γενητὸν ἀγένητον, θνητὸν ἀθάνατον, λόγον αἰῶνα, πατέρα υἱόν, θεὸν δίκαιον· «οὐκ ἐμοῦ, ἀλλὰ τοῦ λόγου ἀκούσαντας ὁμολογεῖν σοφόν ἐστιν ἓν πάντα εἶναι» ὁ Ἡ. φησι.

    Listening not to me but to the Logos it is wise to agree that all things are one.

    Transliterated and phonetically it reads: “hen panta.” Translated: “all is one.”

    Once he was checking out at a grocery store and a lady asked what it said, he replied, “hen panta” and was about to explain what it meant when she interrupted and asked “hand panda?… cool”

    If I ever own a sporting team… I will call them “The Hand Pandas”

  12. commonfan14 says:

    On the Vollman thing, isn’t his entire analysis built on a single premise – that shot differential is the only stat that matters in hockey?

    It’s certainly important, but sounds a little too simplistic to me.

  13. Zipdot says:

    FYI, I think from reading elsewhere that he has said that he likes his name to be pronounced”

    Jesse (normally, like the American way, even though back home he likes to be called Yesse)
    Yo-en-soo (so Y for Joensuu but J for Jesse)

    I miss Hartikainen.

  14. Zipdot says:

    commonfan14:
    On the Vollman thing, isn’t his entire analysis built on a single premise – that shot differential is the only stat that matters in hockey?
    It’s certainly important, but sounds a little too simplistic to me.

    Well, I’m sure no one is suggesting that you take a Vollman chart alone, and nothing else whatever, to evaluate/predict a player’s performance.

  15. DeadmanWaking says:

    I found this new site. It’s amazing how much content I found there. Check it out.

    Nontransitive dice

    Game designers have been baking this into their game dynamics since the first time some paleolithic hunter illustrated a pincer movement with small pebbles of four distinct hues, beginning our long fascination with shiny flecks.

    Pikemen beat Cavalry
    Cavalry beat Infantry
    Infantry beat Archers
    Archers beat Pikemen

    So if you’ve got the kick-ass cavalry and the other teams have infantry, you’re ready to rumble. But not for long if you leave your roster in stasis. In the off season, the teams you compete against will be procuring pikes for their infantry. Your outcomes will regress even if your triumphant cavalry return for the next campaign with a veteran glow.

    If you study this system by breaking it into categories of performance, what you see will look a lot like regression to the mean even without luck, when the dynamics of competition are such that no-one can afford to sit tight on any one flavour of excellence.

  16. supernova says:

    I am excited to see what jonessu can do. This is the type of bets we needed to have happen more the last few years. It will take very little for Jonessu to cover this bet, and if he doesn’t we place him on waivers. I just don’t understand why Tambo was not using the waiver wire / scouring young UFA’ s for possible 3 & 4 th line duty. It does a multitude of things. Keeps your own 3rd & 4th liners on their toes, the compete level is certainly higher when everyone is fighting for a job, you get to see different skill levels for next to no cost, you keep your own prospects developing in the minors.

  17. G Money says:

    DeadmanWaking: He’s forgotten statistics 101: Independent and identically distributed random variables. The more clever one becomes, the easier it is to lose track of the i.i.d. requirement.

    In your inimitably poetic way, you’ve made the same point I made when I looked at Vollman’s first cut at defining ‘luck’.

    In fact, the ONLY independent random variable in his definition of luck is injury-related, at least in-season. That said, I’m not convinced that injuries aren’t correlated from season to season either – or to put it another way, an injury prone team in one year strikes me as likely to be injury prone the next year. So the variable of injury is independent but not necessarily random.

    The other four factors may or may not be random, but they *are* highly correlated (i.e. NOT independent) within season. I also suspect that if you looked at them from season to season, you would also find they would have some correlation, but that’s just a guess.

    Either way, the luck index that Vollman uses in my opinion has little value.

    Interestingly though, in one sense I agree with his conclusion, which is that the forward steps the Oilers made from the previous season in terms of points was mostly a mirage, driven primarily by better overall goaltending through the year (have we already forgotten how bad Khabi was for the latter half of the previous season??).

    However, since the personnel from year to year were mostly the same (Tambo special), the overall regression or non-progression of the team (other than the wunderkids) is why I am in the pointing fingers at “RK System” camp.

  18. BlacqueJacque says:

    Hey there LT, what are you doing for lunch this week? I’m feeling a craving for some Glenlivet and stomach filler. :P

  19. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    commonfan14:
    On the Vollman thing, isn’t his entire analysis built on a single premise – that shot differential is the only stat that matters in hockey?

    It’s certainly important, but sounds a little too simplistic to me.

    I don’t think that is the premise.

    I think the premise is that shot differential is strong indicator of performance. No where have I seen anything suggesting it is the “only stat that matters in hockey.”

    The fact that the “sledgehammer” includes three points of analysis (zone starts, qualcomp and shot differential) kind of up-ends your interpretation of his premise.

  20. spoiler says:

    DeadmanWaking: I found this new site. It’s amazing how much content I found there. Check it out.

    Nontransitive dice

    Game designers have been baking this into their game dynamics since the first time some paleolithic hunter illustrated a pincer movement with small pebbles of four distinct hues, beginning our long fascination with shiny flecks.

    Holy Crap, you’re right! All this time I thought Wikipedia was merely a place that held the bios of hockey players and celebrities… but it looks like there are whole spheres of knowledge there I never knew about. It’s almost like an encyclopedia.

    Jeez. You’d think when I search the internet for some info that this site would at least come up on Google.

  21. Bag of Pucks says:

    Life on Mars seems profoundly appropriate. The Oilers have been looking for a legitimate power forward for nearly as long as NASA has been looking for signs of life on the red planet.

    They did find water.

    Does that mean Joensu represents a change in the tide or is he just a drop in the bucket?

  22. linkfromhyrule says:

    Joensuu is another wild card, I’m hoping like hell he uses that size and not like an MPS 2.0. I like that he stood up for his teammate in that video posted on J willis’ article the other day (even if he can’t fight at all). No hesitation he went right after them, that is exactly what this team needs.

    btw did anyone see LT “begging for people to vote for him” on that Edmonton journal article yesterday? Some twit is flapping his mouth about that but I never saw anything.

    Am I alone in noticing that (most of) the people who comment on the Edmonton journal hockey articles are some of the least informed hockey fans in the entire city?

  23. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Per LT,

    everyone should read this:

    http://www.coppernblue.com/2013/7/29/4568538/remembering-kristians-pelss

    Here’s hoping Pelss’ countryman has some luck (not at our expense, of course). The Latvians have been bitterly abused by fate:

    http://www.tsn.ca/nhl/story/?id=428768

  24. TheOtherJohn says:

    I thought we took the Vollman Sledge Hammer and did not need to look at anything else. With the notable exceptiion of Andrew Ference who we look at 12/13 TOI alone to conclude he is a top 4 D.

    Is there any site on the web where nuanced arguments related to analytics are discussed in detail. Take “How to value 2nd round picks” is an example. 100 games, 150 games, 200 games. Slot taken in the 2nd round. TOI, WOWY.

    Sheesh. Or we simply go with the flawed Vollman #’s ALONE

  25. Zipdot says:

    Well, if we only use Vollman, there is an upside. We know exactly who to blame if our argument doesn’t hold water — Eddie Vollman.

  26. Lucinius says:

    Pavelski gets as much money as Hall/Eberle in his new deal with the Sharks. Good player and its closer to market value than it should be in reality (and reality doesn’t have any influence on pro sports), but man.. that Hall contract!

  27. Zipdot says:

    Actually, the more I stare at Joensuu’s numbers and quotes, the more I’m thinking, “Teemwho?”

  28. Dominoiler says:

    Wrt the staples article,
    “In 2013, the Oilers scored 124 and 135 goals, but when you give them average luck, Vollman has them scoring 201 goals and letting in 249 goals, making them the worst team in the NHL”

    Look at how far off those numbers are, that, imo, should have been a wake up call to staples.. nearly twice as many goals againat, these ‘closer to the mean’ numbers are ridiculous.. maybe there can be some aspects of the process to keep but it seems obvious to me that there are some bugs in the code..

  29. commonfan14 says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: commonfan14:
    On the Vollman thing, isn’t his entire analysis built on a single premise – that shot differential is the only stat that matters in hockey?
    It’s certainly important, but sounds a little too simplistic to me.
    I don’t think that is the premise.
    I think the premise is that shot differential is strong indicator of performance. No where have I seen anything suggesting it is the “only stat that matters in hockey.”
    The fact that the “sledgehammer” includes three points of analysis (zone starts, qualcomp and shot differential) kind of up-ends your interpretation of his premise.

    I should have been more specific, but I wasn’t talking about the “sledgehammer” stuff – just the Vollman paper being discussed in the Staples article that Deadman linked to.

    The method Vollman is using in that paper, which predicted the Oilers will be the worst team in the league next year, is based on making corrections to shooting and save percentages to regresss them to the mean – so it looks to me like the only variable he isn’t correcting for is shots.

    Any team with a good shot differential comes through his shooting and save percentage corrections fine, and those with bad differentials look worse.

    Maybe there’s more to it than what’s described in the article, but to me it looks like all he cares about in terms of evaluating whether teams will be good or bad is how his method says they will put up shots for and limit shots against.

    Again – seems a little too simplistic.

  30. wheatnoil says:

    Dominoiler:
    Wrt the staples article,
    “In 2013, the Oilers scored 124 and 135 goals, but when you give them average luck, Vollman has them scoring 201 goals and letting in 249 goals, making them the worst team in the NHL”

    Look at how far off those numbers are, that, imo, should have been a wake up call to staples.. nearly twice as many goals againat, these ‘closer to the mean’ numbers are ridiculous.. maybe there can be some aspects of the process to keep but it seems obvious to me that there are some bugs in the code..

    I assume the 201 / 249 goals is in regards to a calculated 82 game season, where as the 124 / 135 goals refers to the actual 48 game season. If the Oilers goals were extended to a full 82 game season, they would have scored 212 goals and let up 230 in 82 games, which makes the 201 / 249 a little less ludicrous.

    Still, you’re right, it is a bit misleading the way it’s written.

  31. Bruce McCurdy says:

    wheatnoil: I assume the 201 / 249 goals is in regards to a calculated 82 game season, where as the 124 / 135 goals refers to the actual 48 game season. If the Oilers goals were extended to a full 82 game season, they would have scored 212 goals and let up 230 in 82 games, which makes the 201 / 249 a little less ludicrous.

    Still, you’re right, it is a bit misleading the way it’s written.

    Your conclusions are correct, & David has added a minor edit to clarify.

  32. justDOit says:

    Zipdot:

    Jesse (normally, like the American way, even though back home he likes to be called Yesse)
    Yo-en-soo (so Y for Joensuu but J for Jesse)…

    So he wants the same letter pronounced two different ways in two different words… sounds like he’s been taking English lessons!

  33. gcw_rocks says:

    wheatnoil,

    Grossing that up to 82 is likely not fair. That’s west only, and like this year, the west was much tougher than east. It is not unreasonable to expect the Oilers to have scored better against east.

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