THE ART OF ‘THE DEAL’

Well. THAT was quite a weekend. The Edmonton Oilers were extremely busy Friday through Sunday and madeover much of the roster–especially the blueline. The club has much work to do, and little in the way of inhouse solutions.

  • July 4: Acquired D Philip Larson and a pick for C Shawn Horcoff
  • July 5: Signed D Andrew Ference
  • July 5: Signed C Boyd Gordon
  • July 5: Signed G Jason LaBarbera
  • July 5: Signed W Jesse Joensu
  • July 5: Signed L Ryan Hamilton
  • July 5: Signed C Will Acton
  • July 6: Signed R Ryan Jones
  • July 6: Signed G Richard Bachman
  • July 6: Acquired D Lee Moffiee from San Jose for the rights to D Kyle Bigos
  • July 7: Signed D Brad Hunt

In four days, MacT added 2 goalies, 4 defensemen, 2 centermen and 3 wingers for Horcoff, Bigos and cash money. It isn’t enough, he needs to add a center to this group and has stated often a big winger is needed, and of course they might not be done upgrading the blue. Meanwhile, Hemsky is being shopped and they need to sign Gagner and Paajarvi (their rfa’s).

  •  MacT:  There’s a couple significant pieces we’d like to add — a top-six forward doesn’t have to be a prolific scorer but would be a good complement to the other five forwards. Somebody who has a lot more size. There’s still a few significant holes, in my mind. We’ve got a couple significant pieces we can try to move to fill some of those holes. We’re hopeful we can do that. The one thing we didn’t address enough of here is the toughness aspect.”

Yesterday, we looked at possible solutions to those problems MacT is talking about in that quote, and there are a few UFA’s and some possible trade targets available. I’m struck by how very important these moves will be for MacTavish and his hockey team. Acquire Braydon Coburn, Tomas Vanek and the Russian Grabovski and the roster sets up handsomely. On the other hand, no addition on defense, a middling solution for the wing and a replacement level or below option at center and we’re back in the second division for another year.

I do wonder if they’d take a look at Vanek. If you’re willing to sign David Clarkson at crazy money, why not chase Vanek? Those guys rarely shake loose, and if you can get him the top 6F would be Hall, Vanek, Eberle and Yakupov on the wing with Nuge and Gagner at center. When did the Oilers have that kind of firepower on two lines? It was a long damn time ago.

THE BIG QUESTION

How long does it take for an intelligent man, well versed in talent evaluation and framing the issue, to learn the art of the deal? I think he did well in the Horcoff trade in that no money returned, but  saving money is one thing–spending it wisely on the big trade that is coming is quite another. It gets back to what we discussed before: mere weeks into the GM job, the Oilers are about to make a decision that will very likely impact the roster for three or more seasons and impact it in a major (5M+) way. How long did Tambellini live with the Khabibulin contract? The entire time he was GM, basically.

Godspeed, Craig MacTavish.

CURRENT OPENING NIGHT ROSTER?

adamsgif

  • L1: Nuge-Hall-Eberle
  • L2: Gagner-Hemsky-Yakupov
  • L3: Gordon-Paajarvi-Joensu
  • L4: Lander-Smyth-Jones
  • EX: Brown
  • D1: Smid-Petry
  • D2: Ference-J Schultz
  • D3: N Schultz-Larsen
  • EX: Belov, Potter
  • G: Dubnyk, LaBarbera

Playoff team? No. Too many holes, not enough NHL players. Replace Lander, the last three wingers here and add a top 4D while moving out Schultz the elder and now we’re cooking with petrol (not Petrell). Dealing Hemsky is a want not a need but that’s going to happen.

THE LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

When_Harry_Met_Sally_155

We’ve got a lot to talk about this morning (10) on Team 1260. Scheduled to appear:

  • Tyler Dellow from mc79 hockey. MacT’s first week in free agency and what’s left to do.
  • Kirk Luedeke from Redline Report and New England Hockey Journal. What did the Oilers get in Ference, and what happened to the Bruins and Seguin?
  • Travis Yost from Hockeybuzz. What’s it all about, Alfie? and acquiring Bobby Ryan.
  • Andrew Bucholtz from 55 Yard Line. Eskimos looked very good in Guelph, can they sustain it? And what the hell Green Riders?

10-1260 on the text thingy and @Lowetide_ on twitter, plus you can say stuff here. Hope you tune in!!!!!

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186 Responses to "THE ART OF ‘THE DEAL’"

  1. Магия¹º says:

    Let me be the first to wonder why no one in this thread has mentioned Penner as a possible answer.

  2. Caribbeerman says:

    I’d be all over Vanek…maybe for MPS, N. Shultz and one of Garnet or Marincin…

  3. sliderule says:

    Compared to last three years I have seen very little news on development camp.

    Any word on how Nurse,Roy,Klefbom and other prospects look?

  4. Магия¹º says:

    Oh and it’s probably not too late to point out that replacing Horcoff with a similar cheaper younger guy is not an upgrade.

  5. gcw_rocks says:

    If the Ference deal is any indication, MacT has a long way to go in signing players to new deals. 4 years and a NMC for a 34 year old d-man? Not very bright.

    Whale hunting with Clarkson? Also not very smart.

    Adding more prospect d-men to a prospect pool deep in d-men and weak in forwards, strange.

    This team needs to spend some of the d-men (prospects and lower pairing NHL players) to improve quality. The infamous 3 for 1!

    Verdict is out on MacT, but the signs are concerning.

  6. Магия¹º says:

    McDonough gone at 6 x 4.7

  7. dulock says:

    LT what do you think of Antropov on a 1 or 2 year deal? 6’6″ 240 lbs, plays physical, puts up 40 points a year and can play all three forward positions.

  8. Halfwise says:

    It’s pretty well established that you can’t “save yourself rich” but you can “spend yourself poor”.

    Some big money has left the roster, thanks in part to MacT and in part to Father Time. How to spend it?

    It’s early days yet, and the Vanek story is not just interesting on its own, it’s likely the first of several opportunities arising from cap-strapped teams trying to optimize against their new constraints. If the Vanek deal is right grab it, but you have to believe there will be another one after Vanek.

  9. Wes Mantooth-11 says:

    Sum’s it up pretty good.

    I have to believe that Vanek is not on MacTavish’s wish list, high salary with no term and impending free agent with most likely high draft picks and prospects the Oilers can ill afford to lose.

    I have to think Perron/Hartnell maybe Dubinsky is you can shake him free, these are the teams that have dire cap issues that still need to sign players with no cap room, these are teams that are vulnerable at this time.

    Perron would be a god send.

  10. theres oil in virginia says:

    On the other hand, no addition on defense, a middling solution for the wing and a replacement level or below option at center and we’re back in the second division for another year.

    Very astute. I’d like to see Grabovski signed, I think he fits “tough”. I don’t think he fits “size”, and that makes me think he’s not a target. Taking the trade route to fill that “size in the top six to compliment the other 5″…unless he means trading Hemsky…what goes out?

    I still wonder what the hold up is with Gagner. Are they trying to sign him to less money and claim that he’s a winger? Does the Gagner camp take that? I doubt it. I think whatever the next move is (sign Grabo, sign Gagner, trade for a winger, trade Gagner, etc) will have the domino effect.

    What’s that moving clip from? Wow. I’m not much of a movie guy, but I’d watch that movie.

  11. Gret99zky says:

    Hey LT,

    I posted a youtube video of Oiler Development Camp featuring Darnell Nurse.

    Feel free to watch/use it.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yW_btwdqn08&feature=youtu.be

    Cheers.

  12. tsunami says:

    Wow, amazing deal for the Rangers if confirmed imo… McDonagh at 4.7 for 6 years ??? Ridiculous…

  13. soup says:

    Perhaps Vanek and Stafford from the Sabers? Both are said to have one foot on the platform out of Buffalo. Not sure what it would take, but brings some immediate balance to the forwards (depending on the price). Maybe Vanek at 29 is our Hossa?

    Be bold, MacT!

  14. russ99 says:

    tsunami,

    Hmm.. If true that could lower the price for Gagner.

    It’s also very interesting how some GMs are partially getting around the cap by giving huge bonuses. I’ll bet that is stifled in the next CBA.

    I’m hoping MacT is far from done. If we go into camp with this roster, it would be very disappointing.

  15. mumbai max says:

    We need to stay focused on the need for top 6 Forward first.

    Plan A. A young (perhaps RFA) big forward that can be tied up for many years, and does not come with an astronimic price tag yet. Lets say Coutourier with Gagner going to the wing.This will take real assets to acquire.

    Plan B. If the above is not available, then it is a big wily proven veteran, who is cheap and SHORT TERM. Andropov for instance, there are many other possibles. We get these for almost nothing, or only money and keep our powder dry for next summer.

    The worst thing is to consider the wrong combination of A and B, old, overpriced, short term, and requiring too many assets to acquire. This is easy, but destructive. Vanek for instance.

    The EXACT same scenario applies to the top 2 D. Plan A, Young and long term requiring assets, Plan B, old and short term for little or nothing plus money.

    There are a limited number of assets available, so I think we should try to end up with a Plan A forward and a Plan B defenceman or vice versa. Tie up a Plan A forward and start looking for a Plan B defenceman. Or, tie up a Plan A defenceman and start looking for a Plan B forward.

    I am hoping MacT is working full time on Plan A’s, and when one of those falls, then work on the Plan B’s. It is possible to do both in one deal perhaps. Doubtful to get two Plan A’s either seperately of together, that is when Eberle or Yakupov enter the picture, and none of us wants that.

  16. eastcoastoil says:

    Morning,
    Has anyone suggested a offer sheet for Pietrangelo?

    Have this after offering a trade for Him and Perron. too much pie in the sky but why not the offer sheet?

  17. Bad Seed says:

    mumbai max,

    Why do people here want Gagner going to the wing? He solves nothing there. He’s neither big nor will he be cheap. I don’t get why everyone is so in love with this guy??? Use him for a trading chip.
    I like the idea of Vanek too but MacT is saying he doesn’t need a scoring machine, just someone bigger to balance things out so I can’t see him pursuing him.

  18. Chris says:

    Can we have a moritorium on stupid trade proposals where we try to get Couturier out of Philly? He’s cheap and useful, the very definition of a player that the Flyers are not going to trade. I don’t mind the armchair GMing but really lets be realistic the Flyers are not moving players who have less than a a three million dollar cap hit.

  19. mumbai max says:

    Bad Seed,

    Because he is a 50 – 65 points per season producer. And is a great team guy. And a known quantity. And we already own his rights. None of these grow on trees.

  20. lance says:

    Lowe seemed pretty decent at deal making, though I don’t remember him shooting off his mouth in the media before any of them. Assuming that MacT has learned to stop that, he may not have too much further to go. Humbled by the Schneider miss and struck down by Clarkson, maybe he’s already got it figured. While my trust may be broken, it may not be too hard to earn back. More importantly, it may seem to other GMs that he has been sufficiently initiated into the club, and possibilities are possibly now on the way. In many ways he’s walking into a used car lot, speaking to veterans, as a first time buyer. Tough way to get a deal.

    Vanek on a 6 x 6 would seem legit to me, I had Boyes in a keeper pool and traded him. boring. Not sure why that cliff fall happened, he’s clearly not the 40 guy anymore.

    Philly apparently will be moving either Schenn or Couturier to wing, probably Schenn, and the chances of busting either loose without a wonderkid is pretty thin. It will take much more than MPS, they say. I checked out Scott Laughton and at 170 lbs doesn’t seem any answer.

    Question I have regards the lowering value of buying Vanek now v next summer. The price drops towards UFA day, at what point does it cost something less than Magnus, Gernat and next year’s first? Pretty expensive test drive only to bid on the open market next year.

  21. hags9k says:

    Gret99zky,

    Awesome job Gretz thanks! He’s going to be a beaut.

  22. Bad Seed says:

    mumbai max,

    He’s exactly what we have throughout the roster, except to a lesser extent. He would be a valuable trading chip. I don’t think the Oilers see him as part of the cluster since his contract renewals always seem to grind out.

  23. Магия¹º says:

    russ99: t’s also very interesting how some GMs are partially getting around the cap by giving huge bonuses. I’ll bet that is stifled in the next CBA.

    Bonuses are included in cap calculations in the current and previous CBA. But yeah another way to front load.

  24. Ice Sage says:

    Another inspiring and perfect picture, LT -

    Just like Meg Ryan / Sally, MacT is ‘faking it in public’

    Am still waiting on the post entitled “Real Difference-Making NHL Player Acquired”

    Good Times!

  25. hags9k says:

    Trading Gagner in a Vanek deal would leave us with Gordon centering Vanek and Yakupov. Guys.

  26. Madtown Oil says:

    Lowetide, do you think this team has potential to be a playoff team if they fill the 4L C position–without subtracting Hemsky? If they not, how does this team have long term potential?

    Also, obviously the two major holes are top pairing defenseman and top 6 player with size. Given that with some luck the former could still come from within, from a roster player (JShultz) or system prospect (OKbom), seems they should have drafted Nichushkin.

  27. Lucinius says:

    hags9k,

    Unless they sign Grabovski, of course.

  28. hags9k says:

    Lucinius,

    Doubtful in my opinion, despite his familiarity with Eakins. Read his comments about Carlyle again and then tell me MacT wants him sitting next to Yak and Ebs in the room and on the flights. 16 pts last year, bought out for a reason. I’d pass.

    Don’t get me wrong I’d LOVE to see Vanek in the Oil drop, I just don’t see how we can swing it outside of adding 1st rounders or Klef to a Hemsky package, which is too steep.

  29. SinceTheWHADays says:

    lance:
    Lowe seemed pretty decent at deal making, though I don’t remember him shooting off his mouth in the media before any of them.Assuming that MacT has learned to stop that, he may not have too much further to go.Humbled by the Schneider miss and struck down by Clarkson, maybe he’s already got it figured.While my trust may be broken, it may not be too hard to earn back. More importantly, it may seem to other GMs that he has been sufficiently initiated into the club, and possibilities are possibly now on the way.In many ways he’s walking into a used car lot, speaking to veterans, as a first time buyer.Tough way to get a deal.

    Vanek on a 6 x 6 would seem legit to me, I had Boyes in a keeper pool and traded him.boring.Not sure why that cliff fall happened, he’s clearly not the 40 guy anymore.

    Philly apparently will be moving either Schenn or Couturier to wing, probably Schenn, and the chances of busting either loose without a wonderkid is pretty thin.It will take much more than MPS, they say.I checked out Scott Laughton and at 170 lbs doesn’t seem any answer.

    Question I have regards the lowering value of buying Vanek now v next summer.The price drops towards UFA day, at what point does it cost something less than Magnus, Gernat and next year’s first?Pretty expensive test drive only to bid on the open market next year.

    I might be wrong, which I’ve proven to be on here before, but I seem to recall that things went south for K Lowe right after the Penner offer sheet. I honestly think offer sheets piss off a lot of GM’s, thus affecting strong relationships for deals that might be available down the road. Try and make a fair trade and build relationships with fellow GM’s alla Sather & Sinden back in the day.

  30. Maverick says:

    The L4 of Smyth-Lander-Jones doesn’t scare anyone. L4 needs to stir it up a bit with gloves in the face, hard to play against attitude, a shit disturber. I don’t see one on this line. Smyth and Jones try hard but neither is a pest. The last true pest the Oilers had was Todd Harvey in 2006. There has to be one either on the L2 or L3 or L4 and except for the new big Finn I don’t see one.

    This should be added to MacT’s summer to do list.

    These “pest” players have to be added by trade, the list from yesterday is an important element moving forward.

    Perron
    Glencross (wouldn’t he look good in this line up)
    Armstrong
    Downie
    Upshall

    That’s my list I am sure we can come up with a few more possible trade targets.

  31. sumaclab says:

    What is the deal with Vanek being available? Is he like Hemsky? Time to move on? At what cost would he be had? Definitely a first round pick. A top prospect(Marincin) and a roster player (Hemsky) or two N.Shultz. Its a risk. Huge if he decides to be a UFA. How much to resign him? 4×5.5.million. He is not a 7/8 million dollar plus player that is for certain. It would be a bold move that is for certain.

  32. Bad Seed says:

    hags9k,

    I don’t think I mentioned trading Gagner for Vanek. Only responding to suggestions about moving Gagner to the wing.

  33. slopitch says:

    I wonder if Vanek could be had at a discount. With one year left on his contract, we’d need to know that he intended on resigning. Now is not the time to blow assets on a 1 year stop gap. Unless Buffalo would take Schultz Sr and prospects, we cant create more roster holes. Buffalo also has a pile of D. Id almost rather take a run at Myers.

    Wow McDonough is one of the better contracts in the league. Taveres’ contract is still better but man that’s a good number. I’d offer 7 million x8 years for Peiterangelo. I feel as though our firsts are safe to be mid to late firsts if we could add a top defender. I’d like to see MacT get aggressive while Yakapov, Nuge and Schultz are on ELC.

  34. Caribbeerman says:

    Sign Grabovsky then trade Gagner and Shultz (older) to Leafs for Kulemin and Gardnier. Then Hemsky to Ottawa for Smith.

    Hall-RNH-Eberle
    Kulemin-Grabovsky-Yakapov
    MPS-Gordan-Jones
    Smyth-Smith-Jonesuu

    Smid-Petry
    Shultz-Gardnier
    Ference-Belov

    Dubnyk

  35. hags9k says:

    Bad Seed,

    Fair enough. I agree with you that moving him to the wing makes no sense.

    -He would be more comfortable on RW where there’s no room.
    -Who then plays 2C and how and why did you acquire that player when we have more pressing needs at LW and D.
    -On the wing he does become another small skilled redundant player, we need a killer on 2LW.

    Willis did a great piece a while back about top 6 Cs and size. No reason at all the Oil can’t run at Stanley with Nuge, Gags 1-2. Size gets brought up every time with Sam but that’s not where the question marks should be, it’s defensive play and faceoffs. He has to improve but he will.

    http://oilersnation.com/2013/2/28/size-and-the-stanley-cup-finals

    Just sign, 89.

  36. Hall Awaits says:

    Nuge – Gagner – Grabovski – Gordon

    That would look great down the middle but I just can’t see Grabs wanting to be a third line centre after that tirade he went on. I still hold out hope for a Hemsky for a Colin Smith type centre to push Lander down the line up.

    Sign Gagner and trade for Kulimen (Stauffer has been hinting him for a while). Grabovski would be amazing if he would accept a two year / 9 million dollar deal.

    We need trades Mac-T. Good luck!

  37. lance says:

    Old school deal making, the Zig Zigler model of closing the deal while Brian Tracy is about building relationshipa. Not sure same rules apply to the private club of 30 as it would in a real marketplace, but lessons cross over for certain.

    KLowe probably did get excommunicated to some degree by the GM club, but he was hardly the first to use an offer sheet. Similarly, if MacT throws down the OS, I don’t know that its going to get him kicked to the curb, but guaranteed its not going to do much for the relationships.

    The real conundrum I see regards doing things to get in the club, and stay in the club, or doing things that help the team. Offer sheets can be good for the Oilers while being bad for MacT, its tricky at least. I would think his first interest should be to the individuals below his rank, not to the PTB above, despite society normally rolling the other way.

    Bummer about MacDonough. An offer sheet that way was probably as likely as an Omark deal.

  38. Jordan says:

    You know what I really like?

    The fact that the Oilers have a boatload of 5-6 Dmen and 10-14 forwards.

    This will do a lot to make damn sure there is a ton of competition at the bottom of the lineup. Minutes will be at a premium.

    Training camp will likely do a lot to determine which of said boatload actually plays with the Oilers, and which end up on waivers, and some will in all likelyhood end up in OKC making sure our farm team is well stocked with NHL-calibre players.

    Also, all the guys who get put on waivers are players the Oilers haven’t invested anything on – so if they get picked up going up or down… meh. That’s fine.

    Low risk. Builds depth. Higher compete. All Win.

  39. lance says:

    Kirkoleinen strikes me as a Nordic King. Just looking at him I imagine a castle all fortified and sufficient.

    MacT looks like the King of the Netherlands. All worried about business and numbers and brokering deals because the minute any army shows up, they are undoubtedly rolling right over.

    Davidson doesn’t need MacT’s deal making, neither does Lombardi or Tallon or Charelli.

    Seems MacT repeatedly broadcasts the notion that his team is deficient in a couple parts, that unlike the Nordic Empire, he needs neighbours. Every time MacT says he needs trades to me he looks more like the Dutch and less like Norse.

    *Apologies to the fellow Dutch. Our great grandfather’s military was a joke.

  40. Lewis Grant says:

    Clarkson at $5.25M, McDonagh at $4.7M? Unbelievable.

    If McDonagh was willing to settle for $4.7M, or if that’s all the Rangers were willing to offer, you seriously have to wonder whether an offer sheet would have gotten the job done. Evan at $6M+, that’s the kind of whale hunting I’d endorse. McDonagh is legit.

  41. Numenius says:

    Not sure why so many people think Grabovsky’s a good option.

    Talent-wise he’d be great, but the signs suggest he’s a head case and would poison the culture in the room. Can’t see McT and Eakins (who likely knows him well enough to judge) wanting him.

  42. hags9k says:

    One thing about Zach Smith. He would make us a lot tougher. 6 fights last year and he can throw them good. And not against any wallflowers either. Love the kid.

  43. stevezie says:

    Maverick: The L4 of Smyth-Lander-Jones doesn’t scare anyone.

    Not true; it bloody terrifies me. I also think our third line would make a killer fourth.

    I don’t know if the will is there on either side, but right now I think we get a much better hockey player in Hemsky than whatever we trade Hemsky for.

  44. Truth says:

    I don’t understand any talk of signing Grabovski and trading Gagner. Eakins and MacT are about acquiring players that compete every night, only one of the them does and he is currently Oiler property. Makes absolutely no sense.

    Same goes for Penner. Sure, he’s big and can score, but it’s only when he wants to. I don’t know how useful statistics are in his case but it’s clear as day. MacT, Lowe, Sutter, and Lombardi are extremely aware of this. If playoff Penner showed up 82 games a year prior to the playoffs he would easlily be worth more than $5M/year. Since he doesn’t, the negative effect on the team does more damage than his possible 30 goals each year bring, IMO.

  45. Esa10 says:

    We are so close to having a finished line-up….for once.

    Sign Armstrong
    Sign Morrow
    Sign Gilbert

    Trade Hemsky and Potter for a responsible 4th line centre. Zac Smith for arguments sake

    Hall-Nuge-Eberle
    Morrow-Gagner- Yak
    PRV-Gordon-Armstrong
    Smyth-Smith-Jones

    Brown -Lander -Joneseau

    Smid-Petry
    Ference-Gilbert
    Schultz-Schultz
    Belov-Larsen

    A Complete line-up would be a godsend.

  46. Bushed says:

    MacT recognizes size and toughness as lacking–good. It will be interesting to see which “significant pieces” he’ll be willing to move, as I don’t think he sees his job as done even after getting a 1D or 2D and a big winger.

    The 4th line looks very suspect, 3rd maybe works if PRV keeps improving and Joensu works out, and the top two lines have skill but lack size/toughness. Adding one big winger to the mix doesn’t scream deep playoff run to me.

    I think Hall and Yak will continue to add size and strength to their games. Hopkins is probably the small skill guy to keep. So if we also keep Gags and Eberle, does it get us to the finals someday, even after the rest of the roster improves? I think MacT is already asking himself that question.
    And I don’t think he’s going to take years to evaluate, like Dithers did.

  47. DBO says:

    speaking of offer sheets. let’s punish the Leafs.

    67Sound ‏@67sound 5m
    Reminder: team can offer sheet Kadri, Gunnar or Franson for up to $3.36MM & pay only a 2d in compensation. We have $10MM for 5 roster spots.

    Gunnerson for $3.35 per year is solid, decent money and if we gave him term would make him our top LHD. allows us to move either Smid or Shultz Sr., but gives us bargaining chips to play and makes us a better team. Take advantage of cap stressed teams! or threaten to offer sheet and make them deal us Kulemin and Gunnerson for picks and close to NHL ready prospects.

    2nd rd pick plus Pitlick and Marincin for Gunnerson and Kulemin. Works for both teams. Unless we are whale hunting again and getting newly married captain to replace our departed one. Phaneuf… not sure if I would want it but he would be our best dman for sure.

  48. mumbai max says:

    Bad Seed,

    it would be interesting to know any other Oiler players who you feel duplicate his 2nd line skills.

  49. LMHF#1 says:

    Esa10:

    Hall-Nuge-Eberle
    Morrow-Gagner- Yak
    PRV-Gordon-Armstrong
    Smyth-Smith-Jones

    Save for his run with the Pens at the end of last season, Morrow’s been looking like he’s done for a couple years now. Certainly nowhere near what we need in a 2line LW. This lineup only has 1 1/2 lines that can score, when we need 3.

  50. Lucinius says:

    DBO:
    Take advantage of cap stressed teams! or threaten to offer sheet and make them deal us Kulemin and Gunnerson for picks and close to NHL ready prospects.

    The NHL doesn’t work like that. What you have to remember is that for the vast majority of owners and GMs the NHL is NOT a business; its an old boys club. You do not break the rules of an old boys club. This is why offer sheets are extremely rare; they are afraid of reprisals. Out-right threatening to offer-sheet unless you get a trade you want? You’ll get ostracized for it.

  51. HeavySig says:

    sliderule,

    I haven’t been on hfboards for a long time, but there used to always be guys writing daily reports over there.

  52. Captain Happy says:

    Igor Eronko ‏@IgorEronko 2m

    #Jets F Alexander Burmistrov signed 2-year contract with #AkBars of #KHL

  53. theres oil in virginia says:

    Maverick:
    The L4 of Smyth-Lander-Jones doesn’t scare anyone.

    I’d say it scares a lot of people. Most of them read this blog.

    Jordan:
    The fact that the Oilers have a boatload of 5-6 Dmen and 10-14 forwards

    will do a lot to make damn sure there is a ton of competition at the bottom of the lineup.
    Low risk.Builds depth.Higher compete.All Win.

    That’s a good read of the situation. MacT took care of that pretty quick, too. We’ll see if he can fix the top of the big club now (top pairing D, tough top 6 F). He’s tried a few times already (much to the chagrin of some here) and failed so far. I suspect he’ll try again over the next several weeks. I doubt he fixes the top pair D, but I have hopes for a better mix of top 6 F.

  54. jonrmcleod says:

    Does someone have a link to a good explanation on the rules and compensation for signing RFAs to offer sheets? I’m wondering if a team can sign more than one of another team’s RFAs.

  55. Cameron says:

    First, I share There’s Oil in Virginia’s interest in the source of the gif…I’d watch the hell out of that movie.

    Second, I think you can take Glen-X off your wishlist of trades. The Flames love him and there is talk of making him captain. Second, he’s a Flame, and the chances of the Oilers and Flames making a deal is vanishingly small, especially when the team needs are so similar.

    Unless you want to overpay badly for him. I’m sure Feaster would consider a Klefbom or Nurse.

  56. rich says:

    LT: Your interview w/Tyler Dellow was excellent. I really like his point on the 3rd and 4th lines.

    Push Smyth down to the 4th line. Jones on a 4th line is not the end of the world – just don’t ask for more than that.

    I think a lot of what killed the Oilers last year (aside from Krueger’s system) was Tambellini not finding another center meant Smyth was in the wrong place. Put him back on the wing playing 4th line minutes and I’m good with that.

    It would not surprise me if Lander starts the season as 4C until Nuge is healthy. Would be a lot happier if we could find a real 4C…and am hoping that Smithson is not looked at as the answer. Jonesu and Brown are the 13th and 14th forwards.

    Gordon is 3C and Paajarvi goes to the wing. I just wonder if Hemsky does not ultimately come back if they can’t find the right trade partner and he’s the other wing on this line.

    In that case, you sign Grabo for 2C, move Gagner to the wing and you’re about there.

    The only thing that would concern me with all that is a lack of crust.

  57. Woodguy says:

    Numenius:
    Not sure why so many people think Grabovsky’s a good option.

    Talent-wise he’d be great, but the signs suggest he’s a head case and would poison the culture in the room. Can’t see McT and Eakins (who likely knows him well enough to judge) wanting him.

    What signs?

    He had an A on his chest in Toronto

  58. Bad Seed says:

    mumbai max,

    Are you kidding? Do I really have to list the small skilled wingers on this team?

  59. theres oil in virginia says:

    Woodguy:
    What signs?
    He had an A on his chest in Toronto

    And anyway, I’ve heard a bit about Carlyle being a real SOB. Maybe the signs point to the coach being a problem, rather than the player.

  60. Woodguy says:

    All,

    McDonaugh is cheap because they are buying 4 RFA years and 2 UFA years.

    He got paid better than Subban did for his RFA years, but will make less than Subban for the first 2 UFA years.

    Very similar deal to Hall at 7 years.

    You “overpay” the RFA years and underpay the first few UFA years.

    Fortunately for the Oilers, Hall is already playing at $6MM+ level, so its a win for a long time.

    McDonaugh is similar, but Dmen don’t get paid like scoring forwards unless you are in the WeberChara stratosphere and are a UFA.

    Good deal for both sides as the team holds the hammer on the RFA years.

    Some teams fuck it up like MTL grinding Subban on a short one instead of doing a long contract, or like Tambellini giving Gagner the HAMMER with a 1 year contract.

  61. theres oil in virginia says:

    Cameron:
    First, I share There’s Oil in Virginia’s interest in the source of the gif…I’d watch the hell out of that movie.

    Where’s Rom these days? He seems to be expert in such matters.

  62. theres oil in virginia says:

    jonrmcleod:
    Does someone have a link to a good explanation on the rules and compensation for signing RFAs to offer sheets? I’m wondering if a team can sign more than one of another team’s RFAs.

    From the CBA pdf available at nhlpa.com:
    Article 10.3 Offer Sheet and First Refusal Procedures.

    (d) (i) A Club may have more than one Offer Sheet signed by a Restricted Free Agent outstanding at any one time and from time to time, provided that it has the available draft picks to satisfy its obligations pursuant to Section 10.4 with respect to all Offer Sheets outstanding at the relevant time.

    http://www.nhlpa.com/inside-nhlpa/collective-bargaining-agreement

    Looks like the only restriction is having the draft picks available. (I believe they have to be your own picks, not from trade.)

  63. mustang says:

    Not sure if anybody brought this scenario up and I missed it, but I was thinking Glencross would be ideal in the 2LW spot, wonder what it would take to do this deal with Feaster? Now this would be bold on MacT, J. Petry and a 1st 2014 plus another secondary dman perhaps Gernat for a signed
    Alex Pietrangelo. St.louis would probably never trade Pietrangelo and if they did I’m sure they would want one of the young guns. If I was MacT, I would be making that call to see what might shake loose, probably has already.

  64. Kris11 says:

    I’d keep Hemsky. You only move him to get cap space to sign other guys, and the other guys are signed.

    I’ll be lambasted for saying this, but I think this IS a playoff team, or at least in a real battle for those 7 and 8 spots.

    The real change going forward is: RNH, Yak, and J. Schultz. It is reasonable to expect those guys to come in and be real players. Ference is an upgrade on Whitney. And the backup goalie is now league-average.

    Hall-Gagner-Eberle
    Yakupov-RNH-Hemsky
    MPS-Gordon-Jones
    Smyth-Lander-Joensuu

    Smid-Petry
    Ference-J.Schultz
    N.Schultz-Belov

    Dubnyk
    Labarbera

    Average goaltending. Elite top 6. (That Yak-RNH-Hemsky is a decent first line, IMO, and they’ll play super soft minutes. Yakupov will be awesome next year,) Below average top 4. Decent depth at D. Decent depth on wings. Need depth at center.

    You could run with this into the start of the season and look for a deal for a top pairing D-man and another center during the season.

    A whole lot hinges on whether J. Schultz is the player he looked like when he did a Bobby Orr on the AHL, or whether he is going to struggle defending at the NHL level as he did (understandably) in his rookie campaign.

    We know Yak will eat soft opposition for lunch. The question is whether J. Schultz can play decent opposition and not bleed chances too badly. I would bet that he can make it as a top 4 guy next year.

  65. mustang says:

    Maverick:
    The L4 of Smyth-Lander-Jones doesn’t scare anyone.L4 needs to stir it up a bit with gloves in the face, hard to play against attitude, a shit disturber. I don’t see one on this line. Smyth and Jones try hard but neither is a pest.The last true pest the Oilers had was Todd Harvey in 2006.There has to be one either on the L2 or L3 or L4 and except for the new big Finn I don’t see one.

    This should be added to MacT’s summer to do list.

    These “pest” players have to be added by trade, the list from yesterday is an important element moving forward.

    Perron
    Glencross (wouldn’t he look good in this line up)
    Armstrong
    Downie
    Upshall

    That’s my list I am sure we can come up with a few more possible trade targets.

    Like your list, and I thing as well Glencross back here would be ideal

  66. lance says:

    Lucinius: The NHL doesn’t work like that. What you have to remember is that for the vast majority of owners and GMs the NHL is NOT a business; its an old boys club. You do not break the rules of an old boys club. This is why offer sheets are extremely rare; they are afraid of reprisals. Out-right threatening to offer-sheet unless you get a trade you want? You’ll get ostracized for it.

    Its not like the law society where they all swear their little oath then sacrifice a bunch of goats, it seems more like the playground with no teachers in sight. The weak get slaughtered quickly while the dominant few are respected like immortals. Certainly some GMs will prey on the Nonis’ of the world, but by no means does it need to resemble the courthouse where all the brethren put in their pledge to the institution then immediately sacrifice the interest of their clients to avoid any semblance of a red star by their name.

  67. Bag of Pucks says:

    Cameron:

    Second, I think you can take Glen-X off your wishlist of trades. The Flames love him and there is talk of making him captain. Second, he’s a Flame, and the chances of the Oilers and Flames making a deal is vanishingly small, especially when the team needs are so similar.

    Unless you want to overpay badly for him. I’m sure Feaster would consider a Klefbom or Nurse.

    I tend to agree with you here that he may be difficult to pry out of Calgary, but that might be more a case of ‘been there, done that’ with Glencross than any unwillingness on the part of the Flames to trade him.

    It’s interesting how the language has changed from the Flames org in recent days and how inactive they truly were in free agency. The owner may have said ‘playoffs’ a couple months back but clearly it’s full steam ahead on the rebuild front and I suspect the owners comments may have had more to do with maintaining a season ticket base and thus the perception of competitiveness than actually doing so.

    With this in mind, at some point I think they have to deal their 30 year old power forward for solid prospects as holding onto Glencross doesn’t really seem to fit the youth/rebuild model otherwise?

    As LT’s Gagner Crossroads post amply demonstrates, the bulk of this team’s depth resides at LD. To balance this lineup, those are the assets I look at moving.

    Either Nurse or Klefbom is an overpay IMO but what about Marincin plus next year’s 2nd round pick. Does that move the dial for Feaster? Another possibility is Hemsky plus Marincin. A bit rich I know, but it brings back a viable power forward on an extremely reasonable contract. They may have ‘seen Hemsky good’ in Calgary, plus he provides a viable forward replacement for Glencross and is a fan friendly player that can put some bums in seats. The question is how sold is Feaster on a prospect like Marincin? Would he be more sold on Gernat? In all honesty, I think the deal Feaster would bite on is the Oilers’ 1st round pick next year for Glencross. And I’m hard pressed to think why the Oil couldn’t consider that trade.

    The Oil are about 3 significant chips away from balancing this lineup into a perennial playoff contender (2C outscorer, LW with size, dominant G) with the much needed dominant D already in the system and developing (Schultz Jr, Petry, Klefbom, Nurse). If I was MacT, I would definitely consider trading some future now for a player that would make a potentially huge impact on our Top 6.

    Too bad KLowe lost him in the first place. Hopefully the time is now to rectify that mistake. Of the Oilers we’re considering for a sequel (Penner, Gilbert, Omark, etc.), Glencross is the one I’d most like to see return.

  68. jonrmcleod says:

    I don’t have the time to figure this out, but I’m wondering if you could target 2 RFAs of a team that is close to going over the camp (1 that requires a 2nd round pick as compensation and 1 that requires a 1st and 3rd round pick as compensation), resulting in that team being almost forced to give one of the RFAs up. Ideally, the targeted team would be a division rival.

    Edit: What I don’t have time to figure out is if there is a team that would fit this scenario.

  69. Jesse says:

    This is off topic, but I’ve got a question about sv% that hopefully this math-y corner of the internet can help with.

    I was having a conversation with a co-worker who is very anti-Dubnyk. As a fan of the big guy I stated that only two goalies in the league last year faced more shots and had a higher sv%: Lundqvist and Niemi. He responded by saying that the more shots you face, the more likely you are to have a high sv%.

    Is this logical in terms of how we evaluate goalies? Should we place less emphasis on a goalie’s high sv% if he’s had an inordinately high number of shots? I’ve never heard this reasoning before and it sounds suspicious to me.

    Does anyone have any insight on this subject?

  70. LMHF#1 says:

    LT – Don’t you disagree with Travis on playing your best players on the PK? We’ve discussed the potential benefits of this previously. They don’t have to play all the time, but they should be an option a) when you need a goal, b) when they’re not getting icetime, and c) when the other team looks vulnerable or is playing a forward on the point.

  71. khildahl says:

    Bag of Pucks,

    The thought of Hemsky to the Flames just made me throw up in my mouth.

  72. Bag of Pucks says:

    khildahl:
    Bag of Pucks,

    The thought of Hemsky to the Flames just made me throw up in my mouth.

    Ok with trading the first rounder instead?

  73. Captain Obvious says:

    This team is only marginally better than they were last year and last year they were one of the worst teams in the league.

    The plan, such as it is, is as it ever was: wait until young players become stars. Well that’s a terrible plan because young players don’t always become stars and if they do, they don’t become stars on your schedule.

    Right now the only way this team makes the playoffs is if two of Yakupov, RNH and J Schultz become stars next year, or Belov and Larssen are actually good not merely placeholders. These things could happen but waiting for it is wishcasting.

    Everybody is playing higher than they should. I like Gordon but he should be your 3/4 center not your 2/3 center. Ference is cromulent but he should be your 5/6 D not your 2 or 3. This team doesn’t have anywhere near the talent of good teams and the window for adding free talent is closing. Which means another year of waiting. We can talk all we want about signing Grabovski or somebody, anybody, to an offersheet. These are all good ideas but I’ll believe it when I see it.

    The best news that has come out of this offseason is that the Oilers failed to sign Clarkson. Think about that for a second. The best thing that has happened is that the Oilers failed to do what they wanted to do.

  74. stevezie says:

    Captain Obvious,

    Ference is perfectly cromulant. You’re right about everything, but the summer isn’t over yet. That’s MacT’s best defence right now.

  75. Cameron says:

    Bag of Pucks,

    Re: Glen-X

    One of the things identified as being an issue with the Oilers rebuild was the lack of quality mentors on the roster to shelter the kids. I suspect that Glen-X (and to a lesser degree, Giordano) are the guys targeted by Flames mgt to fill the role of elder-statesmen/face the toughs while the young guys get their feet wet. I would be surprised if the Flames EVER make a trade with the Oilers again (the last one didn’t work out so well for us), but in particular, I would be genuinely shocked if the Flames moved Glen-X in the division, let alone to Edm.

    That all said, Edmonton’s 1st next year is probably the kind of return Feaster would be looking for. Maricin, Gernat, and later picks might be appealing on paper, but I suspect the Flames can do just as well elsewhere if they decide to move him, and absent an overpay Edm wouldn’t get him for a ‘fair’ price.

    Personally, I would think Nurse would be the right target. He’s a few years away from contributing meaningfully to the Oilers rebuild, but his development schedule would be right in line with Calgary’s new nucleus. Glen-X would bring a ‘big body presence’, speed, grit, and a super reasonable contract and cap-hit, not to mention he’s an Ab boy likely happy to remain in Ab.

  76. Cameron says:

    khildahl:
    Bag of Pucks,

    The thought of Hemsky to the Flames just made me throw up in my mouth.

    I don’t think Hemsky is in Calgary’s interests AT ALL. Wrong age, skillset, etc. He’d be a very poor fit, so I don’t think anyone has to worry about tasting vomit at this stage.

  77. theres oil in virginia says:

    Jesse:
    This is off topic, but I’ve got a question about sv% that hopefully this math-y corner of the internet can help with.

    I was having a conversation with a co-worker who is very anti-Dubnyk. As a fan of the big guy I stated that only two goalies in the league last year faced more shots and had a higher sv%: Lundqvist and Niemi. He responded by saying that the more shots you face, the more likely you are to have a high sv%.

    Is this logical in terms of how we evaluate goalies? Should we place less emphasis on a goalie’s high sv% if he’s had an inordinately high number of shots? I’ve never heard this reasoning before and it sounds suspicious to me.

    Does anyone have any insight on this subject?

    I don’t think I can upload a graph, so:
    SV% S/60min
    0.941 28.60325
    0.932 29.2972973
    0.929 28
    0.927 28.88278689
    0.926 27.72159091
    0.926 26.17298246
    0.924 28.33548387
    0.924 32.20657895
    0.923 27.64103448
    0.922 24.78888889
    0.921 27.71115385
    0.92 32.32488889
    0.92 32.19266667
    0.92 33.42267857
    0.919 30.275
    0.916 31.73863636
    0.916 28.45391892
    0.916 30.91468085
    0.915 33.04351852
    0.915 31.69521739
    0.913 27
    0.91 27.64563107
    0.91 27.02454545
    0.91 28.81
    0.909 27.12816327
    0.908 30.78818182
    0.908 30.97581395
    0.907 27.65803922
    0.907 24.47510204
    0.906 33.40673077
    0.905 29.43529412
    0.905 27.18164948
    0.903 31.03204082
    0.902 25.03505747
    0.902 29.55238095
    0.902 29.32618182
    0.901 32.43676471
    0.901 22.33661538
    0.9 27.79570093
    0.899 21.10482759
    0.897 28.14318182
    0.891 31.832
    0.883 23.54117647
    0.882 29.03896104
    0.874 29.15226415

    I see no trend showing increased SV% with increased (or decreased) shots/60 minutes.

  78. Bag of Pucks says:

    Cameron:
    Bag of Pucks,

    Personally, I would think Nurse would be the right target. He’s a few years away from contributing meaningfully to the Oilers rebuild, but his development schedule would be right in line with Calgary’s new nucleus. Glen-X would bring a ‘big body presence’, speed, grit, and a super reasonable contract and cap-hit, not to mention he’s an Ab boy likely happy to remain in Ab.

    I’m probably suffering from the standard Oiler fan disease (i.e. where I overrate the potential of our prospects), but I wouldn’t deal Nurse for Glen-X straight across unless it was a 27 year old Glencross at the start of a 5 year deal. Hardest assets to acquire are Cs and Top 2 minute munching D and Nurse projects as the latter. Too much IMO for a power forward on the wrong side of 30.

    That said, I would trade Nurse for Glen-X if Calgary sweetened the deal with a legitimate prospect. In essence, Cowtown gets a lifetime blue chipper in exchange for 3-5 years of power forward plus a player with solid potential. Seem fair?

  79. jonrmcleod says:

    Bag of Pucks,

    In this case, I think you’re suffering from something very different from “Oiler fan disease.”

  80. G Money says:

    Jesse:
    This is off topic, but I’ve got a question about sv% that hopefully this math-y corner of the internet can help with.

    I was having a conversation with a co-worker who is very anti-Dubnyk. As a fan of the big guy I stated that only two goalies in the league last year faced more shots and had a higher sv%: Lundqvist and Niemi. He responded by saying that the more shots you face, the more likely you are to have a high sv%.

    Is this logical in terms of how we evaluate goalies? Should we place less emphasis on a goalie’s high sv% if he’s had an inordinately high number of shots? I’ve never heard this reasoning before and it sounds suspicious to me.

    Does anyone have any insight on this subject?

    Official response from this particular math-y corner of the internet: your co-worker is full of crap.

    A simple way to test this is to take the goalies ranked by number of shots last season, and correlate that to save percentage. I did this for the top 30 shots-against goalies (shots range 1270 to 649) last season. The resulting correlation with save percentage is 0.171 – which is a very weak relationship at best.

    Then you account for the fact that there *will* actually be an underlying driving relationship between save% and number of saves made, for one simple reason: the better the goalie, the more games they will play, so the more shots they will face.

    If you combine that with the very weak correlation above, I can tell you unequivocally that – given the same goalie – there is NO truth to the idea that more shots leads to a higher save percentage. Whatever Dubie did, he did it because that’s the goalie he is, not because he faced a lot of shots.

  81. Bag of Pucks says:

    stevezie:
    Captain Obvious,

    Ference is perfectly cromulant. Y

    Cromulant: It’s either a Star Trek alien or a synonym for ‘blue balls?’

    I always thought a good rule of thumb is “if you’re going to use the ten dollar words, you HAVE to spell them right” ; )

    Kudos to you for sending me to the dictionary this morning.

  82. RMGS says:

    Because he’s likely not yet been discussed in this thread, I’d like to mention that Stauffer is currently pumping Penner’s tires as a possible UFA signing for the Oilers.

  83. jonrmcleod says:

    Stauffer is now making the case for signing Penner. I really wish we’d talk more about Penner on this blog.

  84. G Money says:

    Jesse,

    theres oil in virginia: I don’t think I can upload a graph, so:

    Virginia, my analysis was different than yours, but the scatterplot associated with the correlation of 0.171 very effectively shows the complete lack of relationship between shots and sv%, which you can see here:

    http://i.imgur.com/3CexI7C.png

  85. rickithebear says:

    Even P/60 average last 2 or 3 50% + Gm season’s
    Eberle 2.94
    Hall .2.91
    RNH 2.90
    Gagner 2.75 top 5 Pk center
    Yakupov 2.62
    Smyth 2.48 includes Last year w/ real players; top 10 PK winger
    MP 2.23
    Eager 2.20
    Hemsky 2.02
    Gordon 2.00 Top 20 PK center
    Jones 1.98 Top 10 Pk winger
    Jeansuu 1.91
    Brown 0.89
    Lander 0.61

    Hemsky, Brown, Lander
    Please!
    Oh Please!

    Left the team
    Horc 2.44
    Belanger 1.66
    Petrell 1.31
    Harti 1.16

    Grabovski
    10-11 to 11-12
    2.94 EVp/60 52 % ZS
    12-13
    2.25 36.7% ZS

    Way to go Carlyle!

  86. BlacqueJacque says:

    Bag of Pucks,

    If anything you’re suffering from common sense. Nurse will be a legit NHLer playing in his good years while the kids are still in their primes. Glencross will be done by the time the kids peak.

  87. Zipdot says:

    Looks like Omark is set to sign in the newly renamed Swedish Hockey League (SEL) for Brynas.

    http://www.expressen.se/sport/hockey/elitserien/linus-omark-uppges-vara-pa-vag-till-brynas/

    So sad. The guy has so much talent, would have been a great replacement for Hemsky. I’m of the mind that we should get rid of Eberle’s 6 mil contract post haste and Omark could have replaced Eberle on the second line with Yakupov moving up to the first.

  88. Cameron says:

    Bag of Pucks: I’m probably suffering from the standard Oiler fan disease (i.e. where I overrate the potential of our prospects), but I wouldn’t deal Nurse for Glen-X straight across unless it was a 27 year old Glencross at the start of a 5 year deal. Hardest assets to acquire are Cs and Top 2 minute munching D and Nurse projects as the latter. Too much IMO for a power forward on the wrong side of 30.

    That said, I would trade Nurse for Glen-X if Calgary sweetened the deal with a legitimate prospect. In essence, Cowtown gets a lifetime blue chipper in exchange for 3-5 years of power forward plus a player with solid potential. Seem fair?

    Well, like I said, I think Calgary could definitely trade Glen-X, but I think that to trade him to the Oilers would require an overpay. Nurse fits that bill IMO (and for the reasons you describe). Calgary can get a ‘fair’ deal elsewhere, if it’s with the Oilers it will have to be tilted.

    That all said, I really (really, really, really) like Nurse. So after I am installed as GM of the Flames I would make the following offer based on your criteria;

    —> Oilers : Glen-X, Arnold (future 3rd/4th line checking center currently in College)

    —> Flames: Nurse

  89. Yeti says:

    Zipdot: I’m of the mind that we should get rid of Eberle’s 6 mil contract post haste and Omark could have replaced Eberle on the second line with Yakupov moving up to the first.

    I’m with you. Then we could trade Hall and get Schremp back from Switzerland to fill his spot. Another wasted talent who would work wonders under the approach set down by Eakins and MacT.

  90. theres oil in virginia says:

    G Money:
    Jesse,
    Virginia, my analysis was different than yours, but the scatterplot associated with the correlation of 0.171 very effectively shows the complete lack of relationship between shots and sv%, which you can see here:
    http://i.imgur.com/3CexI7C.png

    Same idea, I think. I got shots/ 60 minutes and graphed it against save percentage. I saw no obvious trend up or down. Maybe the “co-worker” meant “saves go up with more shots faced”! Yeah, no shit, unless the goalie is Ty Conklin in Game 1 SCF.

    I assume that the link to the graph is something you were able to post on the internet? A temp upload spot?

  91. dawgtoy says:

    jonrmcleod,

    I’m listening as well. It’ll be a hot topic I’d imagine. We all know what he brings and doesn’t bring to the table. Based on the fact that he’d come, wouldn’t cost anything to acquire, and he wouldn’t break the bank, I’d say sign him for two years. Eakins will whip his lazy ass into shape.

  92. Zipdot says:

    Cameron: I would be surprised if the Flames EVER make a trade with the Oilers again (the last one didn’t work out so well for us),

    How so? We got a minor leaguer and a third round pick for a 36 year old washed up D, can’t beat that! I think we won that trade handily.

  93. Zipdot says:

    Yeti: I’m with you. Then we could trade Hall and get Schremp back from Switzerland to fill his spot. Another wasted talent who would work wonders under the approach set down by Eakins and MacT.

    Err, that’s quite different from what I was saying…

  94. Yeti says:

    Zipdot: Err, that’s quite different from what I was saying…

    Just joking with ya.
    I’d be ok with trading Eberle for a stud D-man (although the time to do it was probably last summer), but there’s little evidence to say that Omark would be a suitable replacement.

  95. Zipdot says:

    Yeti: Zipdot: Err, that’s quite different from what I was saying…

    Just joking with ya.
    I’d be ok with trading Eberle for a stud D-man (although the time to do it was probably last summer), but there’s little evidence to say that Omark would be a suitable replacement.

    1. Omark had good stats in his NHL season: 51-5-22-27 playing on the third line.
    2. He demonstrated that he can really outscore when put on a line with players: Zetterberg and Brunner on EV Zug. 48-17-52-69, so he should do well in the top 6.
    3. His WCs and WJC were very good.
    4. He was PPG on the Barons – just like Eberle.
    5. Eberle’s 6mil contract is premature and will bite us.

  96. godot10 says:

    You don’t build a permanently competitive franchise by trading away the upside potential of D prospects like Klefbom and Nurse for a quick one-off playoff hit.

    Neither Vanek or Glencross is going to make the Oilers a contender. Look at the depth of the roster one has to have to contend. If Vanek really wants to be an Oiler, he will make himself available as a UFA next summer. A Pommainville type of deal is destructive to long term permanent competitiveness.

    The team cannot be fixed in one July.

    Hemsky for something like Zack Smith. Sign Penner or Mason Raymond or both for “free”. One might have to wait away till both their asking prices come down.

  97. Bag of Pucks says:

    BlacqueJacque:
    Bag of Pucks,

    If anything you’re suffering from common sense.Nurse will be a legit NHLer playing in his good years while the kids are still in their primes.Glencross will be done by the time the kids peak.

    Agreed, that’s why I’m reticent to swap them straight up and would want to see a legitimate prospect coming over as well (and something substantially better than Arnold).

    Btw, would you deal Klefbom for Glen_X straight across, with the feeling that Nurse projects as the better prospect. Or is that a no go as well, given the age disparity?

  98. bookje says:

    Zipdot: How so?We got a minor leaguer and a third round pick for a 36 year old washed up D, can’t beat that!I think we won that trade handily.

    I think the ‘we’ is confusing you. His avatar is the Human Torch and he wants to be GM of Calgary. I think he is a Flames fan. Thus, he agrees with you.

  99. rickithebear says:

    theres oil in virginia: I don’t think I can upload a graph, so:
    SV%S/60min
    0.94128.60325

    0.87429.15226415

    I see no trend showing increased SV% with increased (or decreased) shots/60 minutes.

    Really!

    A more useful graph would be % of Quality shots faced versus Shot Count.
    Does the Quality shot % per shot increase as the shot count goes up.

    Here is a hint
    A quick check
    Take the Post lock out Sv% of all qualified goalies 30% of minutes.
    that gives you around 370 results.
    The shots faced average is approx. 28.9/GM
    Look at the range 22/gm to 34/gm
    Break the data up into shot groups.
    Do they all end up with the same Save% as an avaerage?

    Now before you compare your results to a % of .9XX
    the working range of the shot saving machine is .900 to .930
    the goalie abilities vary over a range of 3% of the shots faced.

    That is why I laugh my ass off when discussing Shooting % affect. guys saying the affect is minimal.
    .001 Sv% variance is 1/30 3.333% affect.

    I mean comparing it to .9XX is embarrasing!

  100. Bag of Pucks says:

    godot10:
    You don’t build a permanently competitive franchise by trading away the upside potential of D prospects like Klefbom and Nurse for a quick one-off playoff hit.

    I’m not sure this is a bulletproof argument. Essentially the return I’m arguing for is Glen-X plus a good prospect for Nurse. In many ways, that’s a deal equivalent to Erik Johnson for Shattenkirk and Chris Stewart. Granted, Johnson is not meeting the expectations of his 1ov status and Stewart was younger at the time of this trade than Glencross is now, but there is some precedent here for getting two much needed pieces in return for one blue chipper.

    You are right, trading blue chippers is not the proven path for sustainable competitiveness, but that argument also assumes that the blue chips always turn out. Sometimes they do bust.

  101. striatic says:

    godot10: If Vanek really wants to be an Oiler, he will make himself available as a UFA next summer.

    EXACTLY.

    you don’t trade away picks or prospects for one year of a player unless you are contending to win a cup.

    same logic holds in the summer as it does at the trade deadline.

  102. bookje says:

    I know Penner hasn’t been brought up, but I would seriously consider signing him for a year or two. I think he is not getting interest elsewhere and we have a coach who might be able to push is buttons (i.e. buy him pancakes for every goal scored) in a way that motivates him.

    Edmonton needs to demonstrate a trajectory of improvement that will allow them to attract better Free agents next year. Penner could help to achieve that.

    He will come here if he cant find a good contract elsewhere.

  103. striatic says:

    Bag of Pucks: I’m not sure this is a bulletproof argument. Essentially the return I’m arguing for is Glen-X plus a good prospect for Nurse. In many ways, that’s a deal equivalent to Erik Johnson for Shattenkirk and Chris Stewart.

    it isn’t equivalent at all.

    Shattenkirk and Stewart were pending RFAs.

    Glencross is a pending UFA.

    huge difference.

  104. DBO says:

    Sign Penner. Sign Gilbert. Trade for Kulemin. I could handle that team. And near end of summer add a vet 4C who can PK and win faceoffs (even if it is Smithson). Have Lander as our first call up.

    Hall-Nuge-Eberle
    Penner-Gagner-Yakupov
    Kulemin-Gordon-Paajarvi
    Smyth-vet-Jones
    Joensuu-Brown

    Ference-Petry
    Smid-Schultz
    Schultz-Gilbert
    Belov

  105. theres oil in virginia says:

    rickithebear,

    I don’t have any idea what you’re saying. I’m pretty sure you don’t either. And, I’m very sure you don’t understand what Jesse was asking. Whether your analysis would be a better approach to evaluating goaltenders is neither here nor there. Jesse simply stated that his co-worker claimed an increase in save percentage with an increase in shots faced. There isn’t one.

  106. G Money says:

    theres oil in virginia: I assume that the link to the graph is something you were able to post on the internet? A temp upload spot?

    Sort of – I use freeware called ShareX to do my screencaps. As part of its approach, it will automatically upload screencaps to imgur, which makes sharing it in a site like this tres easy.

    rickithebear: A more useful graph would be % of Quality shots faced versus Shot Count.
    Does the Quality shot % per shot increase as the shot count goes up.

    I’m not entirely sure what you’re saying here, but if I squint a little bit and turn my head sideways, I gather that you are on your usual rant about shot quality.

    If so, you are missing the point. Leaving aside the fact that I have seen no effective capture of statistically valid shot quality data, in this particular case, the question was asked whether shot quantity has a positive influence on goalie save %. And, beyond the obvious driver that good goalies tend to play more than lousy goalies and therefore face more shots, the answer is NO it does not.

  107. Jesse says:

    theres oil in virginia: Same idea, I think. I got shots/ 60 minutes and graphed it against save percentage. I saw no obvious trend up or down. Maybe the “co-worker” meant “saves go up with more shots faced”! Yeah, no shit, unless the goalie is Ty Conklin in Game 1 SCF.I assume that the link to the graph is something you were able to post on the internet? A temp upload spot?

    For some reason there is a massive block in my brain with this concept — I was never particularly gifted in math. So forgive me if this sounds foolish. But, and I think this is the essence of the question:

    Doesn’t the expectation that an NHL goalie is more likely to stop a shot than not mean that the more shots he faces the more likely his save % is to go up?

    I’m not saying that I agree with the original statment that my co-worker presented. But my math-dumb brain is struggling with this general idea.

  108. theres oil in virginia says:

    G Money:
    Sort of – I use freeware called ShareX to do my screencaps.As part of its approach, it will automatically upload screencaps to imgur, which makes sharing it in a site like this tres easy.

    Very nice. I’ll have to check this out some time. Thanks for sharing.

  109. Yeti says:

    Zipdot: 1. Omark had good stats in his NHL season: 51-5-22-27 playing on the third line.
    2. He demonstrated that he can really outscore when put on a line with players: Zetterberg and Brunner on EV Zug. 48-17-52-69, so he should do well in the top 6.
    3. His WCs and WJC were very good.
    4. He was PPG on the Barons – just like Eberle.
    5. Eberle’s 6mil contract is premature and will bite us.

    1. His stats in the NHL were ok. I’d have liked to see more (not his fault)!
    2. There’s many players who would benefit handsomely from playing with Zetterberg in Zug.
    3. Sure. But that doesn’t mean too much.
    4. There’s many players that were PPG in the AHL that can’t make it in the NHL. Eberle has done the latter, although we should all be rightly worried that he may have peaked out.
    5. I agree.

  110. Lois Lowe says:

    Bag of Pucks: Cromulant: It’s either a Star Trek alien or a synonym for ‘blue balls?’

    I always thought a good rule of thumb is “if you’re going to use the ten dollar words, you HAVE to spell them right” ; )

    Kudos to you for sending me to the dictionary this morning.

    My sarcasmatron is broken. Please tell me that you know what the real etymology of cromulent is…

  111. G Money says:

    Jesse,

    Heh heh, well, I will try to do this without making it a math primer!

    The idea is that you assume that a goalie has some natural level of skill, and this skill means that he will stop a certain percentage of shots. If he stops 92% of the shots he faces, his sv% is expressed as .920.

    What your co-worker is suggesting is that a goalie will stop a larger PERCENTAGE of shots as he faces more. So if a goalie faces 500 shots, he’ll save 92%, but if that same goalie faces a 1000 shots, he’ll save say 93% of them. Same goalie, same skill, but saves a larger percentage.

    If this was true, you would see a relationship when looking at a large number of goalies, where higher shots would translate to a higher save percentage. You need to look at a reasonably large number of goalies to establish the trend, in order to overcome the differences in skill levels between goalies.

    The actual data suggests that the relationship between shots and sv% is weak, and furthermore is easily explained by the ‘better goalie more games played’, and that’s why we conclude that your co-worker is full o’ beans.

  112. Numenius says:

    Woodguy: What signs?

    He had an A on his chest in Toronto

    Well he left his two NHL teams (Montreal and Toronto) on bad terms, he’s described as having temper tantrums and being pouty, he was suspended 3 games for abuse of an official, it’s alleged that the only guy in the room he respected in Montreal was Koivu, and he tore a strip off of Carlyle in a live interview.

    (Some evidence: http://bleacherreport.com/articles/151727-thank-goodness-the-montreal-canadiens-traded-mikhail-grabovski)

    If your problems are always everyone else’s fault, then maybe its you.

    As for the A on his chest, that could have been because of his talent, grit, and because he has unusual needs to feel respected to do well.

    He sounds like a hot, intelligent, but high-maintenance woman.

  113. jonrmcleod says:

    DBO,

    I like those top-3 lines. I might like to see the top-2 lines shuffled a bit:

    Hall-Gagner-Yakupov
    Penner-RNH-Eberle

  114. theres oil in virginia says:

    Jesse:
    Doesn’t the expectation that an NHL goalie is more likely to stop a shot than not mean that the more shots he faces the more likely his save % is to go up?

    No, the save percentage represents a ratio of shots saved/faced. 0.90 or 90% means he stopped 9/10 shots faced. So, if he faces 10 shots, you can expect him (generally speaking) to stop 9 of them. If he faces 100 you can expect him to stop 90. 9/10 and 90/100 both give you 0.90 or 90%. In other words as the shots go up, the saves go up at 0.90*SHOTS and the goals against go up at 0.10*SHOTS, but the save percentage doesn’t have to change simply because he faces more shots. The only thing that an increase in shots gives you is a more stable estimate of a goalie’s save percentage (ie – he wasn’t simply on a hot or cold streak for a few games), because obviously a goalie’s save percentage is not fixed over time.

    Also, as RTB attempted to allude to above, the quality of the shot has a lot to do with whether the goalie makes the saves. Good luck getting a handle on quality of shot.

  115. G Money says:

    Numenius: He sounds like a hot, intelligent, but high-maintenance woman.

    Especially if you take into account the biting.

  116. theres oil in virginia says:

    G Money,

    That was a much better explanation than my attempt. I suppose if the assertion were true, you could look at any goalie’s SV% as a function of time, and it would just go up. Even Ty Conklin’s!

  117. theres oil in virginia says:

    Numenius,
    Ha! That’s a good way of looking at it, I suppose.

  118. VanOil says:

    Matthias and Kulikov from Florida for Hemsky and Schultz Sr + D prospect of 2014 pick.

    LW/Center that blocks out the Sun and retrieves pucks win draws. http://youtu.be/gH_ETYQWBNo

    And a Top 4 defender.

    We might have to hold some salary. But these player are good to great now and will still be for years to come.

  119. Numenius says:

    G Money: Numenius: He sounds like a hot, intelligent, but high-maintenance woman.

    Especially if you take into account the biting.

    Haha!

  120. Jesse says:

    theres oil in virginia: No, the save percentage represents a ratio of shots saved/faced. 0.90 or 90% means he stopped 9/10 shots faced. So, if he faces 10 shots, you can expect him (generally speaking) to stop 9 of them. If he faces 100 you can expect him to stop 90. 9/10 and 90/100 both give you 0.90 or 90%. In other words as the shots go up, the saves go up at 0.90*SHOTS and the goals against go up at 0.10*SHOTS, but the save percentage doesn’t have to change simply because he faces more shots. The only thing that an increase in shots gives you is a more stable estimate of a goalie’s save percentage (ie – he wasn’t simply on a hot or cold streak for a few games), because obviously a goalie’s save percentage is not fixed over time. Also, as RTB attempted to allude to above, the quality of the shot has a lot to do with whether the goalie makes the saves. Good luck getting a handle on quality of shot.

    Yeah, that makes sense. Thanks TOIV and G Money.

    I think what I was thinking was that if a goalie faces two shots in the first five minutes of a game and lets in one goal he then has a sv% of .500, but with more shots, he has more opportunity to improve upon that. But, what I’ve come to realize through this discussion is that he has an equal opportunity to do as bad or worse as well. This is why the more shots that are taken, the larger the sample size, the more accurate an account of the goalie’s ability is given by sv%.

    Thanks again!

  121. Bag of Pucks says:

    Lois Lowe: My sarcasmatron is broken.

    Fortunately there’s an app for that now…

    https://itunes.apple.com/us/app/sarcasmatron/id313860380?mt=8

  122. theres oil in virginia says:

    Jesse: Yeah, that makes sense. Thanks TOIV and G Money.

    I think what I was thinking was that if a goalie faces two shots in the first five minutes of a game and lets in one goal he then has a sv% of .500, but with more shots, he has more opportunity to improve upon that.

    Aah, I see what you were after. I guess all that’s happening there is that 2 shots is simply too small of a sample size. Unless it’s Ty Conklin in Game 1 SCF! Then you know exactly what you’re going to get and it isn’t going to improve no matter how many shots he faces (Sorry, I had to slide one more of those in.)

  123. slopitch says:

    VanOil,

    I think Kulikov is a good buy low right now. Haven’t seen him play much but like the idea.

  124. striatic says:

    VanOil: Matthias and Kulikov from Florida for Hemsky and Schultz Sr + D prospect of 2014 pick.

    not interested in Matthias. he isn’t a 2LW, more like a 3LW, and we’ve already got PRV developing there.

  125. wheatnoil says:

    jonrmcleod:
    Stauffer is now making the case for signing Penner. I really wish we’d talk more about Penner on this blog.

    I wish Richard Cloutier would talk more about Penner. He hasn’t brought Penner up ONCE on this blog.

  126. wheatnoil says:

    Seriously though, if MacT would sign Penner, the Oilers would be looking a lot better coming into the season. It’s too bad that the addition of Bobby Ryan probably makes Hemsky less of an Ottawa candidate, because those Hemsky for Zach Smith+ rumours along with a Penner signing would do a lot for the forward roster.

  127. Captain Happy says:

    VanOil:
    Matthias and Kulikov from Florida for Hemsky and Schultz Sr + D prospect of 2014 pick.

    LW/Center that blocks out the Sun and retrieves pucks win draws. http://youtu.be/gH_ETYQWBNo

    And a Top 4 defender.

    We might have to hold some salary. But these player are good to great now and will still be for years to come.

    Why would Florida trade a potential #1D on a value contract and a 6’4″ centre for a #5D and one year of Hemsky?

    Picks and prospects are nice but Florida has their own.

  128. Rondo says:

    Penner couldn’t stay motivated enough for a Stanley Cup team. How is he going to be motivated with Edmonton.

    Penner does play well in the playoffs, regular season he glides.

  129. Captain Happy says:

    striatic: not interested in Matthias. he isn’t a 2LW, more like a 3LW, and we’ve already got PRV developing there.

    Matthias is a centre. He took 347 draws last season.

  130. Kitchener says:

    MacT: Willing to overpay on Clarkson, not willing to pay Gagner?

    Gagner’s camp will likely go to arbitration, forcing a trade or a richer long-term deal at the 11th hour.

    Anyone know when arbitration is?

    Signing Gilbert seems like a no-brainer. Worst-case scenario is that we send an extra d-man out at the deadline for draft picks.

  131. VanOil says:

    Captain Happy: Why would Florida trade a potential #1D on a value contract and a 6’4″ centre for a #5D and one year of Hemsky?

    Picks and prospects are nice but Florida has their own.

    Florida just drafted a pretty good 6’4″ Center (Barkov) Jim Matheson felt the Oilers were intersted in Matthias before but shied away at the price, before opting for Smithson. Kulikov was rumored to be available at the deadline, I have no idea why but would be calling to find out. The value difference of the trade i admit is the problem as Florida does not have Edmonton’s budget.

  132. hags9k says:

    Captain Obvious,

    Place
    Numenius,

    Not to mention he bit a guy…

  133. Woodguy says:

    Numenius: Well he left his two NHL teams (Montreal and Toronto) on bad terms, he’s described as having temper tantrums and being pouty, he was suspended 3 games for abuse of an official, it’s alleged that the only guy in the room he respected in Montreal was Koivu, and he tore a strip off of Carlyle in a live interview.

    (Some evidence: http://bleacherreport.com/articles/151727-thank-goodness-the-montreal-canadiens-traded-mikhail-grabovski)

    If your problems are always everyone else’s fault, then maybe its you.

    As for the A on his chest, that could have been because of his talent, grit, and because he has unusual needs to feel respected to do well.

    He sounds like a hot, intelligent, but high-maintenance woman.

    He couldn’t stand Andre Kostitsyn and fought with him in MTL.

    Then he lasted 5 good years in TOR untill he ran into Carlyle.

    Not the first person to hate Carlyle. Won’t be the last.

  134. spoiler says:

    theres oil in virginia: What’s that moving clip from? Wow. I’m not much of a movie guy, but I’d watch that movie.

    Cameron: First, I share There’s Oil in Virginia’s interest in the source of the gif…I’d watch the hell out of that movie.

    The movie is Sunshine Cleaning, also starring the amazing Emily Blunt.

    http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0862846/

    And as further incentive to watch it, LT’s gif above doesn’t include the naughtiest bits of that scene.

  135. Bruce McCurdy says:

    sliderule:
    Compared to last three years I have seen very little news on development camp.

    Any word on how Nurse,Roy,Klefbom and other prospects look?

    I’ve been down 3 of the 5 days. Much less attendance than the past three years without a magnet like Hall, RNH or Yak to draw people in.

    Most impressive prospect in my eyes is Klefbom, he looks like an NHLer out there with the wannabes. Wonderful skater, really stands out in that department vs. these kids but I think he’ll be a plus skater in the NHL in due course.

    Nurse looks good, a little raw with some rough edges, on Saturday he was ripping passes tape to tape at shooting speed, but today he couldn’t take a pass to save his soul, puck kept going through his stick. At least in the examples I saw, which is always going to be a sample size thing when you got 30+ guys zooming around out there.

    Am liking Dillon Simpson who looks pretty polished relative to many of the others.

    Up front I’ve been seeing Khaira good, he’s big, skates hard, and has some pretty nice hands. Again raw, but you can see a player there if you look hard enough.

    Of the new kids Marco Roy looks like he’s got game, and if I didn’t have a program I would never have guessed that 4th round longshot Aidan Muir is ~6 months younger than anyone else out there. Still just 17, but rangy (6’3) and a decent skater. A draft and follow, with a year of USHL to play and then NCAA after that, but the tools are in place already.

  136. theres oil in virginia says:

    Kitchener:
    MacT:Willing to overpay on Clarkson, not willing to pay Gagner?

    That’s the best argument that I’ve heard that the Clarkson attempt was a mistake. (I already know that I’m in the extreme minority that doesn’t have a problem with the Clarkson attempt, so no need to rehash that whole thing.)

    I’m becoming more pessimistic about Gagner signing a long term deal with EDM.

  137. spoiler says:

    I’m gonna guess that Gilbert wouldn’t sign here without term and an NTC, if he would sign here at all. If he wants to be close to home,no matter the salary, I’d guess Chicago and Winnipeg would be the front-runners.

  138. theres oil in virginia says:

    spoiler:
    The movie is Sunshine Cleaning, also starring the amazing Emily Blunt.

    http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0862846/

    And as further incentive to watch it, LT’s gif above doesn’t include the naughtiest bits of that scene.

    Spoiler (or should I say RC?), you are a god among men. As if I needed any further incentive to watch it.

    Many thanks.

  139. BlacqueJacque says:

    Bruce McCurdy,

    Thanks for the great breakdown. So as expected, Nurse has a couple of years of development ahead of him? Some time in the AHL, maybe, given how similarly-rated Dougie Hamilton has been struggling to get on the ice at times.

  140. Captain Happy says:

    VanOil: Florida just drafted a pretty good 6’4″ Center (Barkov) Jim Matheson felt the Oilers were intersted in Matthias before but shied away at the price, before opting for Smithson. Kulikov was rumored to be available at the deadline, I have no idea why but would be calling to find out. The value difference of the trade i admit is the problem as Florida does not have Edmonton’s budget.

    Barkov will be slotted at 1C with Drew Shore/Nick Bjugstad #2C, Matthias #3C and Goc #4C

    All of them are on ELC’s or cheap in Goc’s case which will appeal to the cash strapped Panthers.

    The only reason I can think of that Kulikov may have been mentioned is that Florida has a ton of young D but they sent Keaton Ellerby to the Kings at the deadline.

    They still have Kulikov, Erik Gudbranson, Colby Robak and Alex Petrovic as young D.

    Tallon signed Matt Gilroy to a one year deal today so I doubt they are in the market for another older defenseman with Jovo, Campbell and Mike Weaver on the roster.

    I can see them being somewhat interested in Hemsky as #2RW but only if the Oilers kept a bunch of salary.

    They have Scottie Upshall at that spot at the moment so perhaps there is a deal there although Upshall has a NMC.

  141. Ducey says:

    stevezie:
    Captain Obvious,

    Ference is perfectly cromulant. You’re right about everything, but the summer isn’t over yet. That’s MacT’s best defence right now.

    Its one hell of a strong one, too. Its July 8th.

    It would appear that MacT’s best strategy might be to simply make some offers to a bunch of GM’s and then wait for their cap problems/ roster imbalances/ internal budgets force them to make some moves. There have been lots of suggestion of the problems the Flyers and Blues might have, and they are valid.

    I would think the Oilers might be able to grab a pretty decent 4th line player on waivers at the end of training camp. There are always one or two guys that despite being pretty good prospects, can’t crack a strong lineup, or have not quite put it all together.

    Rich Peverly was a waiver pick up. Michael Grabner has been good for the Islanders.

    There are other guys that GM’s have to trade for a pick because otherwise they will lose them.

    Patience will also cause a few UFA’s to start getting less picky about where they play and for how much.

    In short, no rush.

  142. maudite says:

    Sign Penner and grabo (still baffled why we didn’t just lift him off waivers) sign ganger, mps and ponikarovsky

    Hall grabo yak
    Penner rnh ganger
    Mps Gordon xxx
    Smyth ponikarovsky jones

    Xxxx
    Petry
    Smid
    Ference
    J Shultz
    (Belov, Larson, potter)

    Trade bait: next years picks, hemmer, eberle and nick Shultz and any prospect not named klef or nurse

    With those asserts:
    Surely shaking something big loose from a few targets is not impossible.

    Clb: Tyutin and Dubinsky
    Phi: coburn, sc and simmonds
    Stl: pieterangelo, pick your forward/c

    Don’t need to do all those signings just have to accept to get the kind of piece we really need it will cost. A real piece. The top flight dman is the biggest concern I say parlay our rw strength into this (yak, eberle, Hemsky and Sam…most cache value is ebs…highest ceiling is yak…likely cheaper option without huge drop off in numbers is Sam….)

    If bold is in order, which it is, I think this is in order.

  143. prairieschooner says:

    I can not see Penner coming back to Edmonton
    He drove MacT nuts with his effort or lack thereof
    The new coach is obviously a bit of a task master so he will be on Penners case big time especially if he increases everyone elses work ethic and Penner sticks out like a sore thumb.
    Not a great environment for anybody assuming Penner was interested in coming back to play hacky sack while juggling 3 balls in Edmonton

  144. Lucinius says:

    No idea why people keep saying Penner should get signed.

    He’s not coming here, period. based on how the media and fans treated him last time, why should he? Given how MacT treated him last time he was here, why should he?

    Nevermind the fact MacT never liked him I don’t see why MacT would suddenly change his mind and sign him.

    Additionally, unless we’re talking a top 5-6 d-man in the league there is no reason to trade pieces like Eberle or Yakupov (especially the latter). You can get by with a slightly weaker defense if you have defense by committee. it hasn’t worked for the Oilers in the past because our depth D sucked and/or our defensive systems were horrendous. The former has gotten better and the latter couldn’t get worse, nevermind some of our D will be better next season just by virtue of experience gained.

    Main holes the Oilers need to plug is the second line LW and a better defensive second line center (Gagner is a horrible center when it comes to defense). Personally, I’d sign Grabovski then move to sign and trade Gagner for the second line LW we need and possibly a fourth line center as well, or picks.

    Then you can trade Hemsky for a third line RW who can play the two way game, and maybe a pick.

  145. G Money says:

    Could I just say, for one moment that I have a new theory about Dustin Penner?

    Oh what is my theory, that it is. Yes, well you may well ask, what is my theory.

    Yes my word you may well ask what it is, this theory of mine. Well, this theory that I have, that is to say, which is mine … is mine.

    My theory that I have follows the lines I am about to relate.

    This theory which belongs to me is as follows. This is how it goes. The next thing that I am about to say is my theory. Ready?

    The Theory of Penner by G Money bracket Mr brackets … My theory is along the following lines.

    My theory, which belongs to me, is mine. Dustin Penner is thin at one end, much, much thicker in the middle, and then thin again at the far end.

    He could play 2LW for the Oilers. Or not.

    That is the theory that I have, and which is mine, and what it is too.

  146. VanOil says:

    Captain Happy: Barkov will be slotted at 1C with Drew Shore/Nick Bjugstad #2C, Matthias #3C and Goc #4C

    All of them are on ELC’sor cheap in Goc’s case which will appeal to the cash strapped Panthers.

    The only reason I can think of that Kulikov may have been mentioned is that Florida has a ton of young D but they sent Keaton Ellerby to the Kings at the deadline.

    They still have Kulikov, Erik Gudbranson, Colby Robak and Alex Petrovic as young D.

    Tallon signed Matt Gilroy to a one year deal today so I doubt they are in the market for another older defenseman with Jovo, Campbell and Mike Weaver on the roster.

    I can see them being somewhat interested in Hemsky as #2RW but only if the Oilers kept a bunch of salary.

    They have Scottie Upshall at that spot at the moment so perhaps there is a deal there although Upshall has a NMC.

    Fair and well reasoned points. They have a payroll down the middle the whole league should envy. As Oilers may have on defense in a couple years. But man we are week on the team and in the system for Centers.

  147. Zipdot says:

    Back to the goalie question.

    When you first start collecting stats, it’s easy to have a 1.00 SV%; say after opening your first season with a shutout. But over time, having a 1.00 becomes less and less likely/possible. Each game you play succeeding that one, your SV% will tend toward a number representative of your play that season, if you have average consistency in your game.

    Once you reach a good baseline number, like after your first 50 games, your goal will be to improve upon that number for the next 50. Maybe this happens, but ultimately, the more pucks you see, the more representative your stat becomes. This could go up if you try to improve it or it could go down over time if you lose your good habits or get injured or old.

    Goalies stats go both up and down over time (i.e., with each additional save attempt).

  148. VanOil says:

    G Money,

    Good Theory. My Theory is that people are fixated on the Pancakes not the person who was making them. That off ice issue has been resolved. Home life affects job performance.

  149. G Money says:

    Zipdot: When you first start collecting stats, it’s easier to have a 1.00 SV%; say after opening your first season with a shutout. … Maybe this happens, but ultimately, the more pucks you see, the more representative your stat becomes.

    This is why, if you’re smart, you pay very careful attention to sample size.

    And if you’re really smart, you don’t trust statistics at all!

  150. Rondo says:

    Numenius,

    You run into an asshole in the morning, you ran into an asshole.
    You run into assholes all day, you’re the asshole.

  151. Tarkus says:

    G Money:
    Could I just say, for one moment that I have a new theory about Dustin Penner?

    Oh what is my theory, that it is. Yes, well you may well ask, what is my theory.

    Yes my word you may well ask what it is, this theory of mine. Well, this theory that I have, that is to say, which is mine … is mine.

    My theory that I have follows the lines I am about to relate.

    This theory which belongs to me is as follows. This is how it goes. The next thing that I am about to say is my theory. Ready?

    The Theory of Penner by G Money bracket Mr brackets …My theory is along the following lines.

    My theory, which belongs to me, is mine.Dustin Penner is thin at one end, much, much thicker in the middle, and then thin again at the far end.

    He could play 2LW for the Oilers.Or not.

    That is the theory that I have, and which is mine, and what it is too.

    Very nice Flying Circus reference. It’s even funnier with Ms. Elk’s coughing spasms. Kudos to you.

    I wouldn’t mind a return of Pencakes, but management seems to be waffling.

  152. Bruce McCurdy says:

    G Money: That is the theory that I have, and which is mine, and what it is too.

    Nice Ann Elk reference.

  153. sliderule says:

    Bruce McCurdy,

    Thanks a lot Bruce.

    I was at the camp past three years and couldn’t make it this time.

    Last year I thought Klefbom ranked right up with Yak .

    Pleased to hear he still looks real good.

  154. Captain Happy says:

    VanOil: Fair and well reasoned points. They have a payroll down the middle the whole league should envy. As Oilers may have on defense in a couple years. But man we are week on the team and in the system for Centers.

    They also have another C, Vincent Trocheck, on the way.

    50G 109P +48 in the OHL last season.

    He’s likely a year or two away.

  155. Numenius says:

    Woodguy: He couldn’t stand Andre Kostitsyn and fought with him in MTL.

    Then he lasted 5 good years in TOR untill he ran into Carlyle.

    Not the first person to hate Carlyle.Won’t be the last.

    Those are reasonable points to keep in mind, especially his 5 good years in TO.

    Though if it was only Kostitsyn he hated in Montreal, why didn’t he respect anyone except Koivu?

    Still suggests that he’s high maintenance and so potentially harmful to team chemistry.

    I’m leery.

  156. cabbiesmacker says:

    Bruce McCurdy: Nice Ann Elk reference.

    I shot Ann Elk once. Big bugger. 6 x 6.

  157. "Steve Smith" says:

    G Money,

    Nice Richard Cloutier reference.

  158. cabbiesmacker says:

    Tarkus:

    I wouldn’t mind a return of Pencakes, but management seems to be waffling.

    This story is far too syrupy for me.

    Is Penner’s agent really Mrs Butterworth?

  159. Zipdot says:

    cabbiesmacker,

    Penner is toast, he doesn’t bring enough jam…

  160. Tarkus says:

    This is starting to crepe me out.

  161. theres oil in virginia says:

    G Money,

    So Penner is thick in the middle, and the Oilers are thin in the middle. Sounds like a match!

  162. cabbiesmacker says:

    btw LT? Amy Adams? Really?

    GACK!

    Saw enough of that body in The Fighter to know I don’t need another look anytime soon.

    Standards up please sir. Thank you.

  163. cabbiesmacker says:

    Tarkus:
    This is starting to crepe me out.

    Don’t get yourself into a flap jack

    Odds are stacked against a Penner return

  164. Kitchener says:

    Why does Gazzola ask so many questions within each question? Like his work better when he keeps it brief.

  165. cabbiesmacker says:

    Zipdot:
    cabbiesmacker,

    Penner is toast, he doesn’t bring enough jam…

    Har excellence.

    What if we can get him for muffin?

  166. remlap says:

    cabbiesmacker:
    btw LT? Amy Adams? Really?

    GACK!

    Saw enough of that body in The Fighter to know I don’t need another look anytime soon.

    Standards up please sir. Thank you.

    You sir, are off your gourd.

  167. lance says:

    Penner would really have to butter them up.

    Zipdot:
    cabbiesmacker,

    Penner is toast, he doesn’t bring enough jam…

    Donair talk that way about Penner again.

  168. spoiler says:

    Wow, you guys are really battering this pancake meme.

  169. jonrmcleod says:

    “Steve Smith”,

    I’m hearing from various people that LT is considering putting an end to the frequent guest posts by Richard Cloutier. In other news, from what I hear, LT will finally focus on a long-neglected topic: Dustin Penner.

  170. Tarkus says:

    spoiler:
    Wow, you guys are really battering this pancake meme.

    Shut your flap, Jack! :D

    I-HOPe you didn’t take that personally.

  171. spoiler says:

    Tarkus: Shut your flap, Jack!

    You Jemima your own business!
    ;o)
    Course not.

  172. bookje says:

    lance:
    Penner would really have to butter them up.

    Donair talk that way about Penner again.

    Penner has always been great for this blog!!

  173. Tarkus says:

    If MacT and Penner have any lingering animosity toward each other, they should just quiche and make up.

  174. Lowetide says:

    cabbiesmacker:
    btw LT? Amy Adams? Really?

    GACK!

    Saw enough of that body in The Fighter to know I don’t need another look anytime soon.

    Standards up please sir. Thank you.

    Yeah. THAT’S what’ll keep it from happening :-)

  175. spoiler says:

    Tarkus: If MacT and Penner have any lingering animosity toward each other, they should just quiche and make up.

    Since we’re barbequeing him here… Griddle me this, Fatman… Dustin Donuts or Pancakes Penner, which makes for the batter so-briquet?

  176. Lowetide says:

    jonrmcleod:
    “Steve Smith”,

    I’m hearing from various people that LT is considering putting an end to the frequent guest posts by Richard Cloutier. In other news, from what I hear, LT will finally focus on a long-neglected topic: Dustin Penner.

    See my post tomorrow: Chicken Penne with Oil recipe for success?

  177. Numenius says:

    Well that would just take the cake.

  178. 8p0intgame says:

    I have two questions about the top 6:

    1.) Are Eberle and Hall good enough players to continue pushing possession with Gagner as their centre?
    2.) How well would a 1B line of RNH-Paajarvi-Yakupov work?

  179. Lowetide says:

    8p0intgame:
    I have two questions about the top 6:

    1.) Are Eberle and Hall good enough players to continue pushing possession with Gagner as their centre?
    2.) How well would a 1B line of RNH-Paajarvi-Yakupov work?

    1. Yes
    2. They SHOULD kill the soft parade.

    The point you are making is a strong one.

  180. 8p0intgame says:

    Lowetide,

    It may be unreasonable, but I feel honoured. :)

    I’m curious though, I didn’t think I was making much of point. lol What point did you think I was making?

  181. Lowetide says:

    8p0intgame:
    Lowetide,

    It may be unreasonable, but I feel honoured. :)

    I’m curious though, I didn’t think I was making much of point. lol What point did you think I was making?

    Well, I think we may be overthinking things (maybe it’s just me). One of the ways to possibly straighten out the chaos of the 2line is to insert the Nuge onto it.

  182. Dee Dee says:

    I sort of wish that the Oilers would sign Penner and bring back Omark and Shremp and put them on the third line for a whole freaking year, just to shut their fans up for once and for all.

    Call it the Pancake Penis Jesus line.

  183. theres oil in virginia says:

    I think this underscores a forgotten fact: the Oilers don’t have a legit #1 center. Not yet at least.

    Once again Spoiler, thanks for identifying the movie. I tried finding it myself earlier, but I don’t think I need to tell you how it turned out when I searched for: “redhead in a motel room”. I got a lot of search results.

  184. theres oil in virginia says:

    Dee Dee:
    I sort of wish that the Oilers would sign Penner and bring back Omark and Shremp and put them on the third line for a whole freaking year, just to shut their fans up for once and for all.

    Call it the Pancake Penis Jesus line.

    Not the POS line huh? (Disclaimer: I like Penner and Omark just fine.)

  185. Dee Dee says:

    theres oil in virginia,

    Hmmmm, POS works too!

  186. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Sorry, but POS is forever the domain of Patrick O’Sullivan

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