Craig MacTavish has been busy this summer, moving out Shawn Horcoff, Magnus Paajarvi and a plethora of rfa’s and ufa’s. He’s at the ’8 or 9 changes’ and could drive right by at his current rate.
Top 4 defender(signed Ference, that’s the big move this summer)
- Sign Sam Gagner to a multi-year deal that has begins with a number in the 4′s
Get Paajarvi signed and then find a role that suits him (suspect it’s 3line). It was St. Louis instead. NHL goalie(LaBarbera was a nice option) Find a 2line L who can complement Gagner-Yakupov with puck retrieval, blocking out the sun, etcPerron, a very nice fit Find a 3line RJoensu is the option I’ll pick, but it would be foolish to exclude Ryan Jones based on salary
Find a 3line C(Gordon an ideal fit)
- Find a 4line C
- Deal Hemsky for immediate help (even if its a checker).
Deal Horcoff or slot him into the 3line job for which he is actually ideal.Continued to improve D depth. Decide on Lander/Belanger or other for 13F. Lander it is! Better blue depthMacT has done this with Belov and Larsen, plus Klefbom/Fedun/Marincin AHL #1/NHL #3 goalieBachman is an outstanding solution Sign Paul Rangershould have said ‘sign Marlies–Hamilton, Acton, coach
That’s a lot of work, and the roster turnover is quite impressive when you look at it compared to last year:
2013-14 projected (new players in italics)
- Arcobello, Ryan Hamilton (estimate)
- Ference-J Schultz
- N Schultz-Larsen
That’s 8 changes by my count, I think the third line, the extra forwards and the back end of the blue are a moving target so this is an estimate. Still, adding Perron, Gordon, Joensuu, Ryan Hamilton, Ference, Larsen, Belov and LaBarbera is a massive overhaul taken as a group, absolutely massive in one summer. And of course I think they’ll tweak the checking line. One thing that is interesting: Lander appears to be safely part of this team. I think he’d be well advised to spend a year in the AHL but MacT should know this player type well. When I get a chance next week I’m going to have a look at his numbers to see what we can find.
I like the top 6 very much, The top 4D is stronger than a year ago and I sleep better with this goalie tandem. 8 moves in and the 3line is still a work in progress, but the Gordon addition was sublime. Is Joensuu the solution they see that we cannot? Are they serious about Jones on the 3line?
We wait for the Hemsky trade return. If it’s a Daniel Winnik, I think we can begin to get excited about this team.
STOP MAKING SENSE!
During yesterday’s chaotic interplay between management and media, Craig MacTavish ripped off two lines that officially ring the bell of advanced stats usage in multi-million dollar transactions. I’m not certain the actual value of this trade in money terms (what are two home playoff games worth?), but based on what we heard yesterday the sliderule has a place in the Oilers boardroom.
- MacT: “He’s (Perron) right up there with controlling the play and shots for and against differential.”
- More MacT: “It’ll be a good test for our analytics guys. They have him with some of the game’s elite.”
Well that’s it folks, it’s here. From the Russians to Roger Neilson to Vic Ferrari to Tyler Dellow to Gabriel Desjardins to Jonathan Willis and beyond, math is part of our Oilers. Sure, if David Perron fails miserably then this could backfire but from where I sit Perron is a terrific bet bordering on ideal. I don’t understand possession stats as well as many others, but to my eye Perron is a skill forward who has a track record of pushing the puck in the right direction, scoring goals and generally being part of the solution. It’s a good bet.
It reminds me of the time Bill James produced his Minor League Baseball Handbook and had Jeff Bagwell leading the NL in hitting. He didn’t mean to have it work out that way, but Bagwell’s MLB equivalency was better than all the hitters in the Major League Baseball Handbook. A national baseball writer picked up on it, and James had to sweat for awhile (Bagwell didn’t win the batting title but he was a helluva rookie anyway) before the numbers showed what a great player Bagwell would be in Houston.
Perron looks like a solid bet from here, and if the Oilers are using a similar model for the checking line then in my opinion it is right and reasonable to expect a Daniel Winnik to walk through the door at any time.
LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE
Today on the show (10-noon, Team 1260) we break down the Perron-Paajarvi trade and discuss other matters of national importance. Scheduled to appear:
- Scott Cullen from tsn. Scott will break down the trade, talk about the Oilers in free agency and we’ll hopefully have time for a little baseball too.
- Tyler Dellow from mc79 hockey. Tyler will also break this trade down, and we’ll talk about some of those specific advanced possession numbers MacT was talking about yesterday.
- Tom Lynn from Veritas Hockey. We’ll talk about the advantages of NOT being drafted for many 20 year old eligibles, and about some of the nuance for players drafted and headed for the NCAA in a couple of years. I’ll also ask how often an agent can help manipulate a trade for a player into better circumstances.
- Jeff Krushell from Krush Performance. Jeff is an outstanding source of information on sports training and fitness, we’ll talk about baseball and how much a hockey player can improve his testing numbers over one summer.