If you could create a model for future success in the draft, would you do it? What would the model look like? How would you refine the model? Could the model help you draft better (and more) NHL players? We’re talking a fine line here–one more regular coming out of the draft every three years is an exceptional talent spike for an NHL team (imagine if Riley Nash were a young Jarrett Stoll now, and that Marc Pouliot was a 40 point 2-way center).
- Craig MacTavish after the draft: The guys that we employ to make some of those decisions, we actually have a rating of all the picks and it’s a simple mathematical calculation; over time, what gives you your best opportunity? what increases your odds of hitting some core players? And so we base those decisions largely on that template.
This was in regard to a question about dealing down for increased picks and getting more (long shot) chances at a player. The GMs wording is interesting: it sounds like they dealt down (twice) because their numbers people were telling them this draft was so deep the Moneyball move was to deal down and grab a player later–and that player’s chances of making it would be superior to the ‘stand and deliver’ method of drafting at your turn.
The trades yesterday went like this (courtesy Gordie’s elbow in the post below):
- MacT traded the 37 for 57, 88, and 96, and then moved the 57 for 83, 94, and 113. For the 37 (Zykov,) Edmonton got 83 (Yakimov), 88(Slepyshev), 94(Houck), 96(Platzer), 113(Muir).
My way of dealing with things is NHLE. Let’s put all of these players on a line (NHLE per 82gp)
- Valentin Zykov 14-12-26
- Anton Slepyshev 18-6-24
- Jackson Houck 8-12-20
- Kyle Platzer 2-6-8
- Bogdan Yakimov (no NHLE available)
- Aidan Muir (no NHLE available)
Yakimov is the guy with no NHLE who we need to qualify: he’s a player.
- Kent Wilson: There’s no precise way to calculate NHLE for the MHL or VHL but on the surface, Yakimov’s numbers look pretty good. He split time in VHL with two teams scoring eight goals for 22 points in 37 games following a solid six goals and 13 point performance in 11 MHL games.
I don’t know the formula the Oilers might use to reach the conclusion that caused #37 to turn into #83, #88, #94, #96, #113 but it’s an interesting approach. I’d love to see how wide this formula goes? Does it also tell you which player type is best taken in a specific area? Wouldn’t the people who figure this out want TOI? Do they have it?
My question for you is this: using NHLE (or whatever projection tool you’d prefer) does the trade above look like good value?