THE TRUTH IS OUT THERE!

Overnight–while we slept–Dave Gordon over at Oil On Whyte found something interesting and wrote about it. Now, this is summer–past the draft, free agency and the trading frenzy, and as fans, bloggers, observers we’ve kind of run out of things to talk about during this part of the year. Having said that, Gordon found a nugget that could indeed indicate there’s something out there.

THE TRUTH IS OUT THERE!

truth

The link is above, and there’s a lot of info so I’m not going to post his news just ask that you zip over and read it. If you’re too lazy, John Hoven tweeted something and Gordon drew some interesting (and rational) conclusions. It DOES NOT mean that Kyle Clifford will be traded to Edmonton today, but it does mean that at least one credible media member (and an enterprising blogger of sound mind and body) thinks something could be up in regard to the Oilers.

THE VOLLMAN SLEGDEHAMMER

clifford player usage corsi on

Acquiring Clifford would mean that MacT will have added (should it occur) Boyd Gordon, David Perron and Kyle Clifford to the good part of the graph (and with good color) while also clearing a lot of the lower quadrants out. Added to the nice group of youngsters in the ‘two-way’ division and it’s a nice adjustment to the disaster we saw at season’s end. (this is Corsi btw). The zone starts portion points to the importance of Smyth-Jones presence.

WHAT IS KYLE CLIFFORD AND WHAT WOULD HE COST?

He’s 22 years old, 6.02, 210 and his bio is a perfect fit for the Oilers

clifford resume

Clifford is what Mitchell Moroz would have been if he’d blossomed offensively this past season:

  • Clifford at 17: 60, 16-12-28
  • Clifford at 18: 58, 28-29-57
  • Moroz at 17: 66, 16-9-25
  • Moroz at 18: 69, 13-21-34

I expect the Oilers would try him on a Gordon-Jones line and then if that didn’t work he’d be a 4line option. Clifford’s scoring totals suggest a guy who might be able to play with some skill. The WOWY numbers show an interesting picture, as pointed out by Woodguy.

Clifford w/ Nolan 46.8
Clifford w/o Nolan 58.6
Nolan w/o Clifford 51.3

So Clifford bumps up higher when without Nolan, and Nolan bumps up w/o Clifford as well, but less than Clifford, which makes sense as Clifford’s “other” line seems to be Carter/Richards

He had less than 100min w/ Carter and Richards, so you can’t come to a firm conclusion, but it shows nicely.

Then we look at Clifford wowy w/ Carter

Clifford w/ Carter 58.2
Clifford w/o Carter 52
Carter w/o Clifford 55.1

So Clifford doesn’t fall off a cliff without Carter, which is nice to see.

End woodguy. The WOWY stats are here.

What will it cost? A good, top end prospect. Martin Marincin, Martin Gernat, Jujhar Khaira, Dillon Simpson.  I can also see Gordon’s choices being included in a deal. As we move forward, it’s important to remember why teams stockpile prospects–for use and for trade–and that Craig MacTavish is extremely likely to send away prospects not named Darnell Nurse or Oscar Klefbom.

Don’t get too attached to the summer top 30, ladies and gentlemen.

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134 Responses to "THE TRUTH IS OUT THERE!"

  1. böökje says:

    To heck.with Clifford, I am hoping for a Jack in the Box!

  2. SinceTheWHADays says:

    Well…that would be one less big man to compete against in our division and one big man to add to our arsenal against rivals, so lets hope the smoke leads to fire.

  3. regwald says:

    I saw the tweet come through my Twitter TL and wondered what the heck it was about. Good on Gordon for piecing things together …. even if it is incorrect, I believe his logic and connecting the dots makes for an interesting discussion.

  4. SinceTheWHADays says:

    Adding a guy like Clifford would shore things up retry good, moving us close enough to touch the bubble…then we’d basically be a quality depth Center away from pushing through the bubble into the second season given that Eakins ability to get the most out of the group.

  5. russ99 says:

    Would be a nice 2-way add to the bottom six, but I sure hope we don’t trade one of our good defense prospects for a NHL-level coke machine. Besides, isn’t LA loaded with young defensemen?

  6. Jon K says:

    It’s been pretty clear from the rumors and the acquisition of Carcillo that Clifford might very well be on his way out of LA. I think I included him in a mock lineup here last week. Their cap problems likely mean a prospect or pick on the way back. Could see the Kings asking for Gernat. He’s a few years away from the NHL but is perceived to have good upside. Has some problems in his game that the Oilers would be more aware of than opposing teams.

    I’m not saying Gernat would be the return, but we should prepare ourselves for that kind of value heading to LA. A few teams would be bidding for him.

    Those considerations aside, I can see him being very highly valued by Oilers management for the “skills” he brings. He’d be a good pickup.

    Clifford-Gordon-Hemsky

    Yes. Please.

  7. sliderule says:

    If they give up our second best defensive prospect in Marcinin the Kings will have taken us to the cleaners again.
    In the same draft as Clifford we picked Hesketh and Abney ahead of a player like Foligno who is a similar player to Clifford.
    I see Bruins have fired their head scout.Great scout but just couldn’t manage all the complexities of a major scouting program.
    Sounds familiar to me.

  8. Lucinius says:

    So long as any of; Marincin, Klefbom, Lander, Nurse are not the prospect-ish type required to get the deal done, I’m good with it. Would prefer Gernat not be included, either, but not as high on him.

    I understand Klefbom, Lander, Nurse likely don’t fit a realistic sort of trade piece for a guy like Clifford, for varying reasons, but I never try to under-estimate the Oilers ability to screw up.

    Of all the prospects not named Klefbom or Nurse, Marincin is the one I really think you don’t trade short of getting excellent value out of him as a trade piece (as part of a #1-2 d-man acquisition). There’s just too much potential there. While its always unlikely a prospect will hit their actual potential.. Marincin has the capability of being a really good 3-4 d-man in 2-4 years for the Oilers, and cheaply (at a time frame when the Oilers will need that!). You don’t get rid of those from your system (i.e.; there’s a reason LA gave us Teubert and not Voynov).

  9. SinceTheWHADays says:

    The bottom 6 would have flexibility and options for the coaching staff, much like the way the D is shaping up…yes yes things are shaping up! Add a quality Center…. And I’d be resonably confident with the group.

  10. speeds says:

    My knowledge of US fast food chains is pretty low (outside those also in Canada). How does that relate to Kyle Clifford?

    That “Jack in the Box” reference above could, I suppose, be related to Jack Johnson, a guy who used to play for the LA Kings?

  11. cc says:

    LT,

    Unless I’m reading something wrong. I’m curious how you are saying Carter’s WOWY stats were better without Clifford.

    Carter without Clifford 46.4 (GF%) / 55.9 (CF%)
    Carter wiith Clifford 61.5 (GF%) / 58.2 (CF%)

    Clifford is a guy that can play with skilled players. After reading Speeds comment about running Hall on the 3rd line I’d be tempted to run a top 9 of the following;

    RNH-Eberle-Perron (I think they could handle the toughs)
    Gagner-Yakupov-Clifford (Softies)
    Gordon-Hemsky-Hall (Can play the toughs)

    You can 2ble shift Hall a couple of times to get him with Gagner & Yakupov.

  12. Lowetide says:

    speeds:
    My knowledge of US fast food chains is pretty low (outside those also in Canada).How does that relate to Kyle Clifford?

    That “Jack in the Box” reference above could, I suppose, be related to Jack Johnson, a guy who used to play for the LA Kings?

    In the article from Gordon, he mentions the media member refers to Clifford as “KFC” as those are his initials.

  13. speeds says:

    Lowetide,

    Thanks, I read the article, but didn’t click the link, that makes more sense. A bit of a different nickname, some variety vs. most nicknames.

  14. speeds says:

    FWIW, my guess is Clifford would cost more to acquire in a trade than I would be comfortable giving up to get him, I guess we’ll see if it happens.

  15. Marc says:

    My guess is that Pitlick is the return. He was rumoured to be the return for Clutterbuck and Clifford is a younger, cheaper version of Clutterbuck.

  16. RexLibris says:

    Its the overpay to move Clifford within the new division that scares me about this trade.

    Paajarvi was a good deal, even though it hurt to see him leave.

    Looking over the remaining Oiler assets (1st, 3rd-7th, Marincin, Gernat, Klefbom, Nurse, Lander, Khaira, + a whole heck of a lot of lesser lights) I’m not certain what MacTavish would be offering unless he could swing a conditional deferred pick for 2015 (2nd if they miss the playoffs this year, 1st if they make the Conference Finals, kind of thing).

    Clifford is a different kind of player than Cogliano, but that was a good deal for both teams at the time and I wonder if something similar could swing in this case, with perhaps a modest prospect added. Clifford for a 2015 2nd and David Musil? Mitch Moroz?

    Either way, Clifford wearing the Oil drop in October would be a very nice addition. Just watch Lombardi, he is a shrewd manager, albeit a bit of a gambler.

  17. SinceTheWHADays says:

    So I assume we would all be in favor of acquiring the colonel, the question is: will LA deal him to a division rival without an overpay. Clutterbuck and Schneider come to mind. If MacT really wants this guy I think he’ll have to give up one of our better prospects, which might be ok given that KFC is only 22 himself.

  18. Lowetide says:

    The other thing we can look at is how Moroz compares to Clifford at the same age. Clifford did get a PP push at 18, but was also clear at evens by a significant number.

    MOROZ
    11-12 PP 66, 5-1-6
    12-13 PP:69, 3-4-7
    11-12 EV: 66, 11-8-19
    12-13 EV: 69, 10-17-27

    CLIFFORD

    08-09 PP: 60, 2-2-4
    09-10 PP: 58, 8-5-13
    08-09 EV: 60, 14-10-24
    09-10 EV: 58, 18-24-42

  19. Lowetide says:

    speeds:
    FWIW, my guess is Clifford would cost more to acquire in a trade than I would be comfortable giving up to get him, I guess we’ll see if it happens.

    Yes, agreed. I wouldn’t trade Marincin for him as an example, but wouldn’t be surprised if it was more than that.

  20. Bar_Qu says:

    Pitlick would be an excellent return for Clifford, even with a 5th or lower draft pick thrown in. But I suspect a lot of this public chatter to get him to back down in his salary negotiations.

    Hope I’m wrong.

  21. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Going back to that leafs interview for a moment. I think the etiology of the end of Frattin and Grabo as Leafs is right there:

    “Now I’m going to go back to Matt Frattin’s breakaway. It’s not like it’s game 5, it’s game 7, we’ve been through this thing for 6 games. We’re up 4-2. Fratts gets a breakway, doesn’t score.”

    “If you watch the game over again, watch the last three minutes. Did you know that Grabovski had the puck in Boston’s zone, behind the net, and they had no goalie in the net? It was 4-2, and there was just around 2 minutes to go in the game. I was not in any shape or form worried about being under assault like we were in Game 5. It just wasn’t happening. It wasn’t happening up until that point. We had the puck in their zone, and Grabovski turned the puck over [editor's note: Grabovski pursued the puck behind the net with the net empty, but did not ever have possession of the puck to turn over]. “

  22. SinceTheWHADays says:

    RexLibris,

    Ya that kind of deal makes sense, but poker players would rather win the pot out right that spit it. I agree with you about Lombardi’s shrewdness, he might also want to get even for an injured Fraser that Tambo sent him for Smyth. A slight overpay wouldn’t bother me to add thus guy at this time, just to ensure LA doesn’t deal him somewhere else.

    BTW. Which other teams have the same kind of cap space as the Oil inorder to to wait in the weeds for deals like this?

  23. Woodguy says:

    However, his most often used linemates (Jordan Nolan and Colin Fraser) both performed better without him and that’s a concern.

    That’s not a complete picture.

    Clifford w/ Nolan 46.8
    Clifford w/o Nolan 58.6
    Nolan w/o Clifford 51.3

    So Clifford bumps up higher when without Nolan, and Nolan bumps up w/o Clifford as well, but less than Clifford, which makes sense as Clifford’s “other” line seems to be Carter/Richards

    He had less than 100min w/ Carter and Richards, so you can’t come to a firm conclusion, but it shows nicely.

    Then we look at Clifford wowy w/ Carter

    Clifford w/ Carter 58.2
    Clifford w/o Carter 52
    Carter w/o Clifford 55.1

    So Clifford doesn’t fall off a cliff without Carter, which is nice to see.

  24. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    “I can also see Gordon’s choices being included in a deal.”

    read that initially as Boyd Gordon and got very confused… then I thought, “oh, his linemates… Smyth, Jones, Hemsky… why would they want those guys…?”

    it was a confusing time for me.

  25. wheatnoil says:

    Woodguy,

    The same is true with Fraser except that Fraser did worse without Clifford. I think LT misread the WOWY chart. Fraser is below 50% without Clifford and above with him.

    Clifford seems to have been helping the 4th line and was at least able to skate with Carter. Probably means he’d be a good fit for the 3rd line on the Oilers.

  26. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    I think the D option going the other way should be in the Teubert variety for payback.

    Let’s start with Musil and go down from there: Davidson, Simpson, Gustaf, Lalags, Betk.

  27. Lowetide says:

    wheatnoil:
    Woodguy,

    The same is true with Fraser except that Fraser did worse without Clifford. I think LT misread the WOWY chart. Fraser is below 50% without Clifford and above with him.

    Clifford seems to have been helping the 4th line and was at least able to skate with Carter. Probably means he’d be a good fit for the 3rd line on the Oilers.

    Yes, that’s exactly it. Sorry about that, but you bunch have corrected in comments. :-)

  28. Woodguy says:

    wheatnoil:
    Woodguy,

    The same is true with Fraser except that Fraser did worse without Clifford. I think LT misread the WOWY chart. Fraser is below 50% without Clifford and above with him.

    Clifford seems to have been helping the 4th line and was at least able to skate with Carter. Probably means he’d be a good fit for the 3rd line on the Oilers.

    I think that’s a fair assessment.

    He’s regarded as a good skater who is a very good fore-checker.

    That is something the Oilers haven’t had in the lower 6 since Glencross left.

  29. striatic says:

    so ..

    Hall, RNH, Eberle
    Perron, Gagner, Yakupov
    Clifford, Gordon, Hemsky
    Smyth, Lander, Jones
    Joensuu, Brown

    ?

    That looks pretty great to me. I’m guessing Brown is in the PB most nights until the injuries inevitably start.

    assuming this rumour is true, which i don’t think it is.

  30. supernova says:

    I am sticking with my guess of Gernat & Pitlick plus something like a Tyrrvennain, or Omark or even a 5th rounder.

    This type of deal makes alot of sense for the Oilers, they need the bigger bodies that play physical that are in the show right now.

    I am preparing for a slight overpayment in terms of prospects or picks, but the team desperately needs the bangers, also in his short career he knows what it takes to win a cup and compete in the playoffs and the Oilers need that desperately especially in the age group he would fit in.

  31. striatic says:

    btw i think whether or not Edmonton “loses” a trade of this kind is determined not just by who or what they trade to get the player’s rights, but perhaps more importantly how much the sign the player for.

  32. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    striatic:
    btw i think whether or not Edmonton “loses” a trade of this kind is determined not just by who or what they trade to get the player’s rights, but perhaps more importantly how much the sign the player for.

    I was just thinking the same thing…

    are they going to acquire him and then give him CLutterbuck/Stalberg like money and term?

  33. Obiwan Eberle says:

    Please let this be true…Adding Clifford means

    Clifford – Gordon – Jones/Hemsky

    i may be squinting but that’s starting to look like a 3rd line….Hemmer and a first for Brouwer would be the stuff of legends

    ….while I’m dreaming, maybe a nude and eager-to-please Famke Janssen, A trunk of gold and a magic ring will be waiting for me when i get home.

  34. rich says:

    If true, it also adds more size to the bottom six as well and right now. It addresses an important issue of being harder to play against.

    Clifford is not a coke machine, he’s an actual NHL player. He solves a problem on the 3rd line combined with Hemsky and Gordon. And he also helps solve a 4th line problem – it should effectively move Jones down (both are LW). Sure hope this is more than just the musings of a wannabe GM.

    Given their cap situation, if all they need is prospects, I’m agreed with the consensus above – the only untouchables should be Klefbom and Nurse. While I’d hate to lose Marincin, you have to consider what it’s going to take to make this team tougher to play against now.

  35. Lowetide says:

    My guess at lines would be:

    1. Nuge-Hall-Eberle
    2. Gagner-Perron-Yakupov
    3. Gordon-Clifford-Jones
    4. Lander-Smyth-Joensuu

  36. striatic says:

    Lowetide: My guess at lines would be:

    where is Hemsky?

  37. Lowetide says:

    striatic: where is Hemsky?

    I think he’s gone.

  38. commonfan14 says:

    Lowetide,

    So Hemsky for Clifford?

    edit: got beaten on that one. But are you not expecting a useful body back in return for Hemmer at this point, LT?

  39. Lowetide says:

    commonfan14:
    Lowetide,

    So Hemsky for Clifford?

    At this point, I wouldn’t be surprised if they bought Hemsky out. He’s not going to fit. The Oilers DO NOT believe in three scoring lines.

  40. jonrmcleod says:

    Why would the Kings bring in Carcillo and swap out Clifford? Is there something I’m missing? Is he asking for too much money?

  41. Lowetide says:

    jonrmcleod:
    Why would the Kings bring in Carcillo and swap out Clifford? Is there something I’m missing? Is he asking for too much money?

    Apparently the Kings are cap squeezed. Now, this might be LAK leaking something to pressure the Clifford side….

  42. supernova says:

    Lowetide: At this point, I wouldn’t be surprised if they bought Hemsky out. He’s not going to fit. The Oilers DO NOT believe in three scoring lines.

    Isn’t the buyout period complete for the year?

  43. commonfan14 says:

    If Florida is really interested in Omark, I suspect the Oilers would deal him for the rights to Peter Mueller – and that isn’t even a thing.

  44. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    I gather the MacArthur/Ryan deals make the Hemsky-Smith deal moot.

    I’d hate to see Hemsky leave… but a return of something like a decent 4C is way more preferable to a buy out.

    A buy out simply makes no sense. Even if they hate the idea of 3 scoring lines, it makes no sense to ditch Hemsky for nothing.

    Let Eakins rotate players until the trade deadline and grab a 2nd at the very least.

  45. Lowetide says:

    supernova: If Florida is really interested in Omark, I suspect the Oilers would deal him for the rights to Peter Mueller – and that isn’t even a thing.

    There’s a second one after arbitration so teams can offload contracts.

  46. Kirby says:

    Please feel free to correct me if I am wrong, but my understanding is that LA is shopping Kyle Clifford due to salary cap implications. If Edmonton is truly in on trading for Kyle Clifford, would a deal like the following make sense?

    Kyle Clifford
    for
    3rd Round Pick (2014) + Rights to Teemu Hartikainen

    LA not only gains the cap space they desire, but also frees up a contract spot (I would consider changing the pick to a 2nd round pick in 2015, or consider throwing in another prospect like Tyler Pitlick ). We all know the benefits for the Oilers. My projected (slightly wishful) line up after the deal (+ Gagner signing):

    Gagner-Hall-Yakupov
    RNH-Perron- Eberle
    Gordon-Clifford-Hemsky
    Lander-Joensuu-Jones
    Smyth

    Klefbom-Petry
    Ferrence-J.Schultz
    Smid-Belov
    N.Schultz, Larsen

    Dubnyk
    LaBarbera

    Looks like a potentially balanced lineup to me, with desire to add a depth center for insurance. I still believe N. Schultz is traded at some point before the season opener or very early in the season (to replenish the picks traded during the off-season or to acquire the depth center). Ditto Potter. Hemsky is retained, and tested on the third line – he either works and we keep him, or he doesn’t and we trade him (praying he’s not hurt before hand). Here’s to hoping/wishing!

  47. supernova says:

    Lowetide: There’s a second one after arbitration so teams can offload contracts.

    hmm, i personally would hate to see Hemsky go, especially for nothing.

    they are one injury in the top 6 from him being a good complementary piece again.

    but i suspect you are right if there is another buyout period.

  48. RexLibris says:

    Romulus Apotheosis:
    I think the D option going the other way should be in the Teubert variety for payback.

    Let’s start with Musil and go down from there: Davidson, Simpson, Gustaf, Lalags, Betk.

    Agreed. This isn’t the Penner deal redux. Clifford is a useful asset as a depth winger who can be moved up the batting order if need be, paying top six prices for him isn’t a smart move.

    I think Lombardi is shopping him in advance of the arbitration hearing, and if we get to the 11th hour then he might be moved, because even Lombardi knows that something in return is better than having to walk away and get nothing.

    I also have to believe that MacTavish is playing the same game (as well as a few other GMs around the league). So what MacTavish has to do is weigh out his options in waiting for Lombardi to feel the squeeze while also not lowballing him to the point where Dale Tallon can come in and scoop him up for a song because they play on opposite coasts.

    As I said before, I’d look at a 2015 2nd, a prospect in the range of Musil and perhaps throw in a forward like Rajala. That’s essentially three assets for one, and should insure the Kings against a number of weaknesses in the deal (Musil gets injured, pick becomes a bust, Rajala not an NHLer, etc).

    Lombardi is a riverboat gambler, MacTavish needs to use that to his advantage. Let Lombardi gamble with the idea that he could win out in the deal in the end, but meantime get exactly the asset you want at a price you can afford.

  49. hags9k says:

    If we can acquire Clifford for a prospect not named Klef or Nurse it’s a coup.

    I think they need to keep Hemsky or get back a roster player for him. I’ve never liked his body language but…buyout?!? no way.

    Let’s keep in mind that the ideal balanced depth chart we all keep drawing up will last about a week until the injuries hit. So even if they hate to attempt 3 scoring lines, it would not be wise to throw a player like Hemsky to the scrap heap for no help to the roster for the sake of a balanced roster to start the year. We are then one Eberle ailment away from Jones on 2RW.

    DEPTH

  50. RexLibris says:

    Romulus Apotheosis:
    I gather the MacArthur/Ryan deals make the Hemsky-Smith deal moot.

    I’d hate to see Hemsky leave… but a return of something like a decent 4C is way more preferable to a buy out.

    A buy out simply makes no sense. Even if they hate the idea of 3 scoring lines, it makes no sense to ditch Hemsky for nothing.

    Let Eakins rotate players until the trade deadline and grab a 2nd at the very least.

    I’d wait to move Hemsky at the trade deadline. Even if the Oilers are in a playoff position, the Sharks traded Ryane Clowe at the deadline, made the playoffs and got an asset that helps them roll along without any major setbacks or losses.

    Same with N. Schultz and Ryan Jones. If other teams want to “load up” for a playoff run, fine, take their picks. Then move the picks at the draft for players, or keep them and restock. Loading up for a playoff run is not a guarantee, and letting valuable assets like a top-six winger walk for nothing is a terrible waste, especially on a team where that is a redundancy. If we were talking about a 2nd or 3rd line center, then likely not.

  51. RexLibris says:

    Lowetide:
    FLA and PHX interested in Omark?

    http://translate.google.ca/translate?sl=auto&tl=en&js=n&prev=_t&hl=en&ie=UTF-8&u=http%3A%2F%2Fhockeynonsens.se%2Favslojar-nhl-klubbarna-som-jagar-omark%2F

    Thanks to Patricia Teter for the tweet.

    I’ve always wondered about Omark to Phoenix. They’re situation demands efficiency and the embracing of retreads. Omark would bring offense, and we can all watch as Maloney gets him for a 5th, then trades him at the deadline for a 2nd, just to rub salt in the wound.

  52. Lowetide says:

    supernova: hmm, i personally would hate to see Hemsky go, especially for nothing.

    they are one injury in the top 6 from him being a good complementary piece again.

    but i suspect you are right if there is another buyout period.

    Me too. Love Hemsky, don’t see a fit here.

  53. böökje says:

    Lowetide: Me too. Love Hemsky, don’t see a fit here.

    I don’t know, I think both MacT and Hemsky may look at the situation and realize that the best way forwards is to accept starting the season together with an understanding that a trade may be made at the trade deadline.

    I think MacT really wanted to get rid of all of the individuals who didn’t fit the mold of ‘coachable’ and I do think that Hemsky has an independent streak. However, the situation looks far different today than it did a few weeks ago. With a few more strong voices in the room and a few enigmatic individuals gone, keeping Hemsky around may not seem as concerning to MacT now.

  54. mps91 says:

    LT,

    Clifford is a must for the 3rd line. We need that physical play more than anything. I’m happy to part with a Gernat/Moroz to acquire him.

    For 3L, I want to also add either Dvorak or T Ruutu from Carolina. Dvorak killed us last year, with great speed and 2-way play. Sign him for a year. Alternatively, Ruutu has some skill to go along with being a great agitator, and can play any F position.

    My 2013 bottom 6:

    Clifford-Gordon-Dvorak/Ruutu
    Smyth-Lander-Jones/Brown

  55. LMHF#1 says:

    I’m still holding out hope that Grabovski is simply prioritizing his family time post-wedding and hasn’t signed yet due to that.

    Hall, Yakupov, Eberle, Hopkins, Gagner, Perron, Hemsky, Grabovski, Clifford.

    Hey, would you look at that…9 top 9 NHL players. 3 scoring lines. Makes too much sense to happen for this squad.

  56. Lowetide says:

    LMHF#1:
    I’m still holding out hope that Grabovski is simply prioritizing his family time post-wedding and hasn’t signed yet due to that.

    Hall, Yakupov, Eberle, Hopkins, Gagner, Perron, Hemsky, Grabovski, Clifford.

    Hey, would you look at that…9 top 9 NHL players. 3 scoring lines. Makes too much sense to happen for this squad.

    Well that’s perfect. Balanced, skilled, music!

  57. striatic says:

    LMHF#1: I’m still holding out hope that Grabovski is simply prioritizing his family time post-wedding and hasn’t signed yet due to that.

    Grabovski won’t sign here.

    Even if he would, there is no way to get him into Edmonton under the cap without losing Hemsky.

  58. Jordan says:

    LMHF#1:
    I’m still holding out hope that Grabovski is simply prioritizing his family time post-wedding and hasn’t signed yet due to that.

    Hall, Yakupov, Eberle, Hopkins, Gagner, Perron, Hemsky, Grabovski, Clifford.

    Hey, would you look at that…9 top 9 NHL players. 3 scoring lines. Makes too much sense to happen for this squad.

    Lowetide: Well that’s perfect. Balanced, skilled, music!

    That’s cup contender depth at forwards and on the backend. Needs some B+ or better performances from Klef & J Schultz on the backend, but that’s possible.

    If the Oilers 1 yr overpay Grabovski… I can see that happening within the cap. But to have both Grabo and Gagner at around 5M each would mean N Schultz would need a new address. Eats into our D depth a little, but I’d say RNH GAG GRA GOR LAN ARC centre depth is really quite good. No mountain men, but all quality hockey players.

  59. Woodguy says:

    Lowetide: At this point, I wouldn’t be surprised if they bought Hemsky out. He’s not going to fit. The Oilers DO NOT believe in three scoring lines.

    Its illegal in Alberta to have 3 scoring lines.

    The dream is dead.

  60. wheatnoil says:

    Woodguy: Its illegal in Alberta to have 3 scoring lines.

    The dream is dead.

    Well if the Flames only have one, can the Oilers get a third?

  61. LMHF#1 says:

    striatic: Grabovski won’t sign here.

    Even if he would, there is no way to get him into Edmonton under the cap without losing Hemsky.

    An overly definitive opening statement unless you’re his wife, agent or a close friend.

    You sure about that cap issue? MacTavish doesn’t need Jones if he can swing that trade for Clifford. Still the remote possibility of a Smyth buy-out/retirement (we can do that, right?). Schultz could be moved and replaced with a lower-cost option.

    Think more Lou/Holmgren re: the cap.

    Also, part of the reason I see a need to look at Grabovski is I’m not trusting Hopkins to be ready/healthy for the season.

  62. OilBuzz says:

    I could see this happening. Clifford’s girlfriend is from Edmonton. I remember she was watching the game in the same room as me when Oilers defeated Detroit during the ’06 playoff run.

  63. Hammers says:

    Dream on . Still waiting on Gags and if Principe is correct 4 days to get it done .

  64. lance says:

    First on Ryan Jones, while the narrative is that he cheats for offense, I think the same was said of Hemsky pre 06. If the brass think Jones can learn a checking role, then that opinion here gets no cred. And for the year before Mike Grier left, the radio call in narrative and water cooler consensus sounded almost identical again. I think Jones can learn defense as well as did Hemsky and Grier.

    Possession v shots

    Possession produces forward pass, lateral pass, backwards pass, forward motion, lateral motion, backwards motion, and turnover. In rugby, forward movement is most valuable, all the rest >>> turnover.

    It couldn’t be that hard to track which player passes to whom and from where. Based on the receiver’s success with the puck, math could secondarily qualify the pass prior. A perfect stretch pass that leads to a break away or a feed into Yak’s wheelhouse while temporarily free on the left dot each get a 10, while flipping a bounce pass into the wheels gets a 1. A pass leading to a shot from between the dots gets a 10, a pass leading to a turnover gets a 0.

    If vectors are assigned to each player, the blue vector could indicate the average distance carried and direction, the red vector could indicate the average length of pass and direction, while the x,y location on chart indicates average of where the player received (or delivered?) the average pass.

    somehow time with possession and probability of turnover for skater and receiver could be added to the display (dotted line, coloured half moons).

    I think there may be a few people here interested in seeing Clifford’s half moon.

  65. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    LMHF#1: Still the remote possibility of a Smyth buy-out/retirement (we can do that, right?).

    That’s an interesting counter to the Hemsky buyout idea…

    but it really raises the question of Oiler commitment to a couple of old hands: who does MacT feel more loyalty to, Smyth or Hemsky?

    and how strong the commitment is to skill through the line-up?

  66. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    lance: First on Ryan Jones, while the narrative is that he cheats for offense, I think the same was said of Hemsky pre 06.

    Jones and Hemsky are the same age.

    Both were still young pups when Hemsky learned how to backcheck under MacT. Asking Jones to learn what Hemsky did 8 years ago at the age of 29 is probably ignoring how fully made most players are by the age of 29.

  67. wheatnoil says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: That’s an interesting counter to the Hemsky buyout idea…

    but it really raises the question of Oiler commitment to a couple of old hands: who does MacT feel more loyalty to, Smyth or Hemsky?

    and how strong the commitment is to skill through the line-up?

    If the compliance buy-out window is over, a regular buy-out or retirement after the arbitration window would still leave Smyth’s cap hit on the books since he’s a 35+ contract. (I THINK this correct but imagine someone will correct me if I’m wrong)

  68. Bruce McCurdy says:

    RexLibris: Its the overpay to move Clifford within the new division that scares me about this trade.

    Somebody explain this concept to me. Aren’t both trading partners within the same division? So who decides which one has to overpay? Or is it uphill & into the wind both ways?

  69. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    wheatnoil: If the compliance buy-out window is over, a regular buy-out or retirement after the arbitration window would still leave Smyth’s cap hit on the books since he’s a 35+ contract. (I THINK this correct but imagine someone will correct me if I’m wrong)

    ahh… I didn’t know that.

    so, he’s either playing or being paid to play to shuffle papers upstairs if he retires.

  70. russ99 says:

    Just makes too much sense to keep Hemsky until the deadline. We then wouldn’t need to eat salary and take back pennies on the dollar now, and he’d help the team as a 3rd liner, PP option and first replacement of a top-6 forward due to injury more any realistic FA/camp invite.

    If his trade value goes up for the deadline with some good numbers and no injuries, even better.

    Besides, MacT needs to keep some cap room/expiring contracts for next offseason’s RFA paydays to RNH, J. Schultz, Dubnyk and maybe Belov and Yakupov.

  71. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Bruce McCurdy: Somebody explain this concept to me. Aren’t both trading partners within the same division? So who decides which one has to overpay? Or is it uphill & into the wind both ways?

    “The guy wanting the bigger asset overpays.”

    That’s chapter 3, section 46 and paragraph 4 from volume 12 of your “How to understand hockey chitter-chatter” series.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GTQrlDzqUCA

  72. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: “The guy wanting the bigger asset overpays.”

    That’s chapter 3, section 46 and paragraph 4 from volume 12 of your “How to understand hockey chitter-chatter” series.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GTQrlDzqUCA

    Oh, right. The section written by Mike “I Really Will Cut Off My Nose To Spite My Face” Gillis.

  73. Kirby says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: “The guy wanting the bigger asset overpays.”

    That’s chapter 3, section 46 and paragraph 4 from volume 12 of your “How to understand hockey chitter-chatter” series.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GTQrlDzqUCA

    So the question is which is the bigger asset – Cap Space or Clifford? Arguments could be made for either being bigger. Would it not be something if Cap Space ended up being bigger and LA traded us Clifford for peanuts?

  74. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Bruce McCurdy: Oh, right. The section written by Mike “I Really Will Cut Off My Nose To Spite My Face” Gillis.

    Also in that section:

    “How to hold press conferences designed to piss off trading partners, slam ex-players and make oneself look peevish.”

  75. "Steve Smith" says:

    LT, I wish you wouldn’t combine players from different teams on Vollman charts like that – it becomes very misleading.

  76. Lowetide says:

    Kirby: Cap space is doubly valuable this season.

    All: the BEST part of the draft (I’ve played it over several times) is the look on Lou’s and then Gillis’ face. One (Lou) is breathing it all in, watching his fanbase react in an instant to the changing of the guard, secure in the knowldge his HHOF goalie has been properly prepared for the moment (and will later announce his son’s name at the draft). A PR dream.

    The other guy pissed his pants.

  77. TheOtherJohn says:

    Bruce

    Pretty sure the team that overpays is the one that loses.

    If we trade Eberle and N Schultz for Clifford I’m pretty sure we overpaid but Eberle isn’t very tall so maybe that balances it out. Now if the “sweetener” LAK have to throw in to make us take Clifford is Kopitar and Doughty, I think they’d overpay. Just my opinion though. Sure some here would rather we trade a 5th rounder and keep N Schukltz for his defensive presence. Its a “deal breaker”

    Although we’d also be an awful lot taller

  78. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Lowetide: Gillis’ face.

    The thing about Gillis’ face is that it shares some less great qualities with Feaster’s. Both are a bit doughy, prone to redness, sweat and a look that announces a combination of confusion and anger. The manner, however, is quite different. Gillis’ anger seems to be internalized, whereas Feaster is nearly always on the verge of berating a small house pet.

  79. böökje says:

    “Steve Smith”:
    LT, I wish you wouldn’t combine players from different teams on Vollman charts like that – it becomes very misleading.

    You sound very sad today Steve…

  80. Lowetide says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: The thing about Gillis’ face is that it shares some less great qualities with Feaster’s. Both are a bit doughy, prone to redness, sweat and a look that announces a combination of confusion and anger. The manner, however, is quite different. Gillis’ anger seems to be internalized, whereas Feaster is nearly always on the verge of berating a small house pet.

    Feaster to me looks and sounds like a guy who doesn’t actually hear the question asked. He has an answer ready and you can fire any question, but the answer is going to be the answer he had to any question.

    Gillis looks like he just buried a body and is going to tell everyone in a Poe-like fashion.

  81. Cobbler says:

    “Steve Smith”,

    I wish he would do it more, because it looks fantastic!

  82. RexLibris says:

    Bruce McCurdy: Somebody explain this concept to me. Aren’t both trading partners within the same division? So who decides which one has to overpay? Or is it uphill & into the wind both ways?

    I’m looking at it as though the Oilers would be in the postiion of relative weakness because I suspect there would be other suitors in other divisions who could, presumably, offer slightly less but attract Lombardi’s attention because of the alleged zero-sum game many GMs believe is the NHL.

    That being said, MacTavish has already worked out two very fair deals for Horcoff and Perron. A third with someone like Lombardi is entirely plausible. The nervousness on my part has to do with my definition of an overpayment versus MacTavish’s. For my money, I don’t part with Klefbom, Nurse, Marincin or Gernat. I don’t think they can afford to part with Lander. Khaira is still too young and early in his development, but virtually every other prospect is, in my opinion, on the table.

    I just don’t know if there are any there worth Lombardi’s time when he could possibly get a more attractive offer from someone out East.

  83. RexLibris says:

    Lowetide: Feaster to me looks and sounds like a guy who doesn’t actually hear the question asked. He has an answer ready and you can fire any question, but the answer is going to be the answer he had to any question.

    Gillis looks like he just buried a body and is going to tell everyone in a Poe-like fashion.

    Remember the “wandering in the desert” comment? Specifically, do you remember your response to it (I think it was in an article on ON). Very inspired, and perhaps a little hot under the collar, but I felt the same way.

    Tambellini took the high road and said nothing, so far as I recall.

    Now remember MacTavish’s comment on Burke about listening to him talk is like trying to take a sip from a firehose?

    What I would love to see is Feaster spout off again in some flamboyantly derogatory fashion about how the Oilers are up a creek somehow, and then turn to hear MacTavish’s understated reply.

    It would be gold. I don’t know what he would say, but I know it would be fantastic.

  84. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    “Steve Smith”:
    LT, I wish you wouldn’t combine players from different teams on Vollman charts like that – it becomes very misleading.

    That’s a good point. the corsirel and qc are relative to one’s own teamates.

    more curious is how that corsirel bubble is blue in LT’s chart. It should be negative for both 12-13 and 11-12

    12-13
    http://somekindofninja.com/nhl/usage.php?f1=2012_s&f2=5v5&f3=&f5=L.A&f4=C%2BLW%2BRW&f7=30-&bubbleType=corsiRel&yAxis=qoc&update-filters=Update+Results

    http://www.behindthenet.ca/nhl_statistics.php?ds=30&s=29&f1=2012_s&f2=5v5&f4=C+LW+RW&f5=L.A&f7=30-&c=0+1+3+5+4+6+7+8+13+14+29+30+32+33+34+45+46+63+67#

    11-12
    http://somekindofninja.com/nhl/usage.php?f1=2011_s&f2=5v5&f3=&f5=L.A&f4=C%2BLW%2BRW&f7=30-&bubbleType=corsiRel&yAxis=qoc&update-filters=Update+Results

    http://www.behindthenet.ca/nhl_statistics.php?ds=30&s=29&f1=2011_s&f2=5v5&f4=C+LW+RW&f5=L.A&f7=30-&c=0+1+3+5+4+6+7+8+13+14+29+30+32+33+34+45+46+63+67

    notable, however, is that for both years his straight Corsi #s are positive.

    His QC is dead last (14/14) of the forwards playing 30+ games in 11-12 and in the middle (7/12) for 12-13.

  85. Rocknrolla says:

    Lowetide,

    Lowetide:
    Kirby: Cap space is doubly valuable this season.

    All: the BEST part of the draft (I’ve played it over several times) is the look on Lou’s and then Gillis’ face. One (Lou) is breathing it all in, watching his fanbase react in an instant to the changing of the guard, secure in the knowldge his HHOF goalie has been properly prepared for the moment (and will later announce his son’s name at the draft). A PR dream.

    The other guy pissed his pants.

    Exactly!!!! Was GREAT TV…reminded it a couple times…especially where Gillis had to leave the floor. Likely embarrassed and pretending he was still on the phone with someone important. If he knew the night before, he should have called luongo and Schneider at least 20 minutes earlier.

  86. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Romulus Apotheosis,

    Of course… LT’s graph is probably just straight Corsi On I realize now… stupid, stupid, stupid!

  87. Protagonist says:

    Just got an alert from my phone, LAK signs Dustin Brown to an eight year extension. When long-term deals get signed like that, avid GM’s usually cut some fruit from the tree. I suspect we’ll start hearing about the RFAs and which ones are heading out of town fairly quickly. Clifford would be nice, and there has certainly been some smoke rising on that particular deal lately.

    Still, an eight year term is an ugly thing in a world of guaranteed contracts, but I think Dean Lombardi has proven rather conclusively he knows more about hockey than I do.

    Important to note I’m not seeing this news anywhere else yet, and the TSN website has yet to update with the news. Might be a mistake but I doubt it.

  88. spoiler says:

    Protagonist: Just got an alert from my phone, LAK signs Dustin Brown to an eight year extension. When long-term deals get signed like that, avid GM’s usually cut some fruit from the tree. I suspect we’ll start hearing about the RFAs and which ones are heading out of town fairly quickly. Clifford would be nice, and there has certainly been some smoke rising on that particular deal lately.Still, an eight year term is an ugly thing in a world of guaranteed contracts, but I think Dean Lombardi has proven rather conclusively he knows more about hockey than I do.Important to note I’m not seeing this news anywhere else yet, and the TSN website has yet to update with the news. Might be a mistake but I doubt it.

    That contract extension isn’t an issue till 2014. Here’s hoping for apples though.

    Strange about TSN though… they posted the story about 15 minutes before your comment.

  89. RexLibris says:

    With every one of these recent signings (Brown, Getzlaf, etc), the Hall and Eberle contracts are looking better and better.

  90. Protagonist says:

    spoiler: That contract extension isn’t an issue till 2014.Here’s hoping for apples though.

    Strange about TSN though… they posted the story about 15 minutes before your comment.

    So they did. I was expecting it to show up on the main page or the sidebar, but it looks like it just made it to the NHL area page. So thanks for pointing that out. :)

    The 2014 number means there will likely be less apples right away, but I have to think that any 8-year contract is going to affect things.

  91. Numenius says:

    “Steve Smith”:
    LT, I wish you wouldn’t combine players from different teams on Vollman charts like that – it becomes very misleading.

    Romulus Apotheosis: That’s a good point. the corsirel and qc are relative to one’s own teamates.

    Huh? Unless I’m misunderstanding something it’s exactly CorsiRel that is the more reliable comparison between teams, not CorsiOn.

    The Rel attempts to remove the effects of team strength from the equation, so that players on differently strengthed teams can be more objectively compared.

  92. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Numenius:
    Huh? Unless I’m misunderstanding something it’s exactly CorsiRel that is the more reliable comparison between teams, not CorsiOn.

    The Rel attempts to remove the effects of team strength from the equation, so that players on differently strengthed teams can be more objectively compared.

    My first assumption is always that I’ve misinterpreted something, especially when someone raises a flag.

    To the others, is this a good definition and what does it mean re: evaluating intra and inter team stats:

    “Relative Corsi: Corsi REL is a relatively simplistic way of measuring how effective a player is in driving possession relative to the rest of his team. At its most basic level, the stat reflects a player’s raw EV Corsi relative to the raw EV Corsi to the rest of the team when he is not on the ice. ”

    http://www.matchsticksandgasoline.com/2011/8/26/2385611/understanding-advanced-stats-part-four-relative-corsi-and-quality-of

  93. Ca$h-Money! says:

    RexLibris,

    They are also right in the range of Jeff Skinner, Travis Zajac, and Tyler Seguin.

    I’d take Eberle over any of those players, especially over the next 6 years.

    Hall… of course. Slam dunk.

  94. Lowetide says:

    I use CorsiRel most of the time, but used CorsiOn here. As it seems to have caused some confusion, I apolgize for not being more clear.

  95. Magnus says:

    If Hemsky is traded (hopefully for a center), I would sign Dan Cleary asap and put him on the third line. Imagine Clifford – Gordon – Cleary. Now that has the makings of a good shut-down line.

  96. Vaclav says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: The thing about Gillis’ face is that it shares some less great qualities with Feaster’s. Both are a bit doughy, prone to redness, sweat and a look that announces a combination of confusion and anger. The manner, however, is quite different. Gillis’ anger seems to be internalized, whereas Feaster is nearly always on the verge of berating a small house pet.

    I often wonder what Feaster’s face looked like when he found out that if Colorado chooses not to match his offer sheet for O’Reilly he could be claimed off waivers and the Flames would still lose their draft picks.

    I kind of imagine it was the same expression on Hank’s face, sitting on the toilet, when he finally recognizes that Walt is in fact Heisenberg.

  97. goldenchild says:

    According to Tencer Grebs is back. You have to think somebody on D is on way out no?

    dantencer 12:05pm via Twitter for iPhone NHL web site lists defenseman Denis Grebeshkov as being back on the Oilers roster. Stauffer hinted earlier that this was possible…

  98. FrankenOil says:

    Dan Tencer ‏@dantencer 34s
    NHL web site lists defenseman Denis Grebeshkov as being back on the Oilers roster. Stauffer hinted earlier that this was possible…

  99. Numenius says:

    Romulus Apotheosis:

    “Relative Corsi: Corsi REL is a relatively simplistic way of measuring how effective a player is in driving possession relative to the rest of his team. At its most basic level, the stat reflects a player’s raw EV Corsi relative to the raw EV Corsi to the rest of the team when he is not on the ice. ”

    That definition is still a little ambiguous because it doesn’t say what raw Corsi is.

    raw Corsi (CorsiOn) is the ratio of shotsfor/shotsagainst of a team per 60 minutes of a certain player being on the ice. That’s a little awkward sounding I know, but it’s the best I got for now. Clifford’s raw Corsi was 8.77, which mean that for every 60 minutes he was on the ice, he and his teammates got 8.77 more shots than the other team.

    Since this obviously will be greatly affected by how good your other teammates are, it’s not very helpful for comparing with players on other teams.

    To factor out the influence of good (or bad) teammates, you can come up with a new number relative to the CorsiON of other players on the team. This is called CorsiRel. Here’s an example of the difference between them. Clifford’s CorsiON (8.77) is high compared with Hall’s (2.79), but is obviously an inferior player. The higher number is due to the fact that he was on a good team and Hall wasn’t. But when you compare Clifford’s CorsiRel with his teammates and Hall’s with his, Clifford’s becomes lower (-5.1) and Hall’s skyrockets (20.3). This now makes their Corsi more objectively accurate as an indication of their abilities because you’ve factored out team strength at least some degree.

    Conclusion: CorsiRel is by far the more accurate metric for comparing players between teams than CorsiON.

  100. böökje says:

    Here it is – Grebs listed as a current Oiler

    http://www.nhl.com/ice/player.htm?id=8470268

  101. G Money says:

    Kirby: So the question is which is the bigger asset – Cap Space or Clifford? Arguments could be made for either being bigger. Would it not be something if Cap Space ended up being bigger and LA traded us Clifford for peanuts?

    Cap space is what makes this deal possible (if there weren’t concerns, I”m sure they would never consider trading him).

    What determines the payout required depends on what other teams are willing to pay to get him.

  102. VanOil says:

    In honor of the Oilers now having a full platoon of defense men. I am going to visit the Colonel and double down.

  103. Numenius says:

    Edit to my previous post:

    The sentence “But when you compare Clifford’s CorsiRel with his teammates and Hall’s with his, Clifford’s becomes lower (-5.1) and Hall’s skyrockets (20.3)” should read “But when you compare Clifford’s CorsiOn with his teammates and Hall’s with his to get their CorsiRel, Clifford’s number becomes lower (-5.1) and Hall’s skyrockets (20.3).”

  104. spoiler says:

    How many defensemen are we trading out of town again?

    This doesn’t bode well for Smid, unless Grebs is just added on a tryout basis.

  105. Numenius says:

    Grebeshkov’s numbers look good up to 2010-11, but what happened in 2011-12?

    He had no goals and only 8 assists in 46 games in the KHL.

    I hope there’s more to the story.

  106. FrankenOil says:

    grebs official.

  107. G Money says:

    Numenius:
    Edit to my previous post:

    The sentence “But when you compare Clifford’s CorsiRel with his teammates and Hall’s with his, Clifford’s becomes lower (-5.1) and Hall’s skyrockets (20.3)” should read “But when you compare Clifford’s CorsiOn with his teammates and Hall’s with his to get their CorsiRel, Clifford’s number becomes lower (-5.1 and Hall’s skyrockets (20.3).”

    The issue with your analysis is that CorsiRel suffers from the same teammate issue as CorsiOn, but in reverse. Specifically, when Hall & co. is off the ice, guys like Belanger and co. are on the ice, while when Clifford is off the ice, guys like Carter & Richards & Kopitar are on the ice. So Hall’s number skyrockets because the other guys are so bad, while Clifford’s plummets because the other guys are so good.

    This is the problem with Corsi in general (in fact, any stats, advanced or otherwise). Any one number will give you only the narrowest window of information on the player. That is one reason why the Vollman charts are useful – they blend a number of key statistics together and provide a much more thorough (though still incomplete) picture of a player.

    The best way of assessing a player remains to look at the on-ice performance (seen him good/bad) and combine that with a variety of statistics, advanced and otherwise, not to mention a little hint of judgement and experience, to try and get a more complete picture.

  108. Kris11 says:

    Holy cow, we got a lot of defensemen.

    If they have added Grebeshkov, which maybe they didn’t.

  109. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Numenius,

    Thanks. That seems a very good summary.

    Exit question: doesn’t the reverse happen though?

    Great players on crappy teams (Hall for example) are going to have inflated CorsiRel #s because relative to his teammates he is a god?

    aren’t both Corsi and Corsirel subject to team effects, just in different ways: one because it adds them into the number; the other because it takes the rest of the team as its reference point?

  110. wheatnoil says:

    Numenius:

    Conclusion: CorsiRel is by far the more accurate metric for comparing players between teams than CorsiON.

    There’s a bit of a caveat to that though. Take the LA Kings. Williams, Kopitar and Brown have Monster CorsiONs (29.77, 25.43, 22.54). There’s a few reasons for that, but those three have numbers double that of the next group of forwards. Since those three are so far ahead of everyone else, the rest of the forward roster gets their CorsiREL pushed down, since relative to the top 3, their Corsi numbers are pretty low. For example, Carter has a CorsiON of 12.45, which is pretty reasonable. However, his CorsiREL is -0.5. Is Carter a poor player or is his CorsiREL just pushed a little lower because he never gets to play with any of those top three and thus relative to Williams/Kopitar/Brown, he doesn’t push possession as much.

    CorsiRel is a great way to compare players ON a team, since it effectively ranks the players with a possession metric. When comparing players between teams, it can sometimes be helpful to have both numbers. Just because Carter (or Clifford) has a negative CorsiRel, doesn’t mean he’s a poor possession player. It just means that he’s on a good team and that team has guys that are real possession demons… so compared to those guys they’re not as good.

  111. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Grebs?

    yikes.. that is a lot of LD now, right?

    ——–

    also… looks like we just switched ECHL affliiates

    http://oilers.nhl.com/club/news.htm?id=678335&navid=DL%7CEDM%7Chome

    any back story here?

  112. wheatnoil says:

    Romulus Apotheosis:
    Grebs?

    yikes.. that is a lot of LD now, right?

    MacT hates Righties!

  113. Kris11 says:

    Would’ve preferred Gilbert to Grebeshkov,

    They’re puttin the band back together.

  114. G Money says:

    Seems Rom, Wheat, and I all had the same basic response to Numenius.

    wheatnoil: MacT hates Righties!

    So does LT I bet! That guy hates everybody!

  115. Kris11 says:

    D:

    Smid, Petry, N.Schultz, Ference, Grebeshkov, J. Schultz, Belov, Larssen, Potter, Klefbom

    Quantity is not quality, MacT.

  116. wheatnoil says:

    Kris11:
    D:

    Smid, Petry, N.Schultz, Ference, Grebeshkov, J. Schultz, Belov, Larssen, Potter, Klefbom

    Quantity is not quality, MacT.

    Last year the Oilers had neither quantity NOR quality.

  117. lazerguidedmelody says:

    My magic eight ball said : “N.Schultz on the trade block”. Or “Have another beer” – one of those two.

  118. Numenius says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: Exit question: doesn’t the reverse happen though?

    Yeah, good point. CorsiRel is certainly not perfect either. I’d say it’s still more reliable than CorsiOn though.

    G Money,

    Your conclusion in all this is right on.

  119. Kris11 says:

    I suppose it os possible they just want to dump Potter or AHL him, regardless. And maybe they see Larssen as a good AHL-NHL tweener and Klefbom as needing an AHL season.

    That leaves:

    Smid-Petry
    N.Schulz-Ference
    Grebeshkov-J.Schultz (Danger Will Robinson!)
    Belov

    With a minimally decent bullpen in the AHL.

    Maybe it isn’t too many D if you disregard Potter.

  120. Kris11 says:

    I really like Grebeshkov as a player. A fan favorite of mine. Maddening sometimes but sublime at others.

  121. LMHF#1 says:

    Bringing Grebeshkov back is something like Sather would have done, therefore I like it.

  122. regwald says:

    Does the addition of Grebs give MacT the ammunition of making a 3 for 1 trade by sending away 3 defencemen ? And maybe getting a fourth one back ?

  123. Numenius says:

    wheatnoil: There’s a bit of a caveat to that though. Take the LA Kings. Williams, Kopitar and Brown have Monster CorsiONs (29.77, 25.43, 22.54). There’s a few reasons for that, but those three have numbers double that of the next group of forwards. Since those three are so far ahead of everyone else, the rest of the forward roster gets their CorsiREL pushed down, since relative to the top 3, their Corsi numbers are pretty low. For example, Carter has a CorsiON of 12.45, which is pretty reasonable. However, his CorsiREL is -0.5. Is Carter a poor player or is his CorsiREL just pushed a little lower because he never gets to play with any of those top three and thus relative to Williams/Kopitar/Brown, he doesn’t push possession as much.

    Ok, I’m realizing that how one derives CorsiRel from CorsiOn is a lot more complicated than what I said. It can’t be merely ranking one’s CorsiOn in comparison with everyone else’s on the team because Carter’s CorsiOn is 12.45 and Richardson’s is 11.71 but Carter’s CorsiRel is -0.5 and Richardson’s is 3.3. If it was a mere ranking, Carter’s CorsiRel should still be higher than Richardson’s.

    Several other factors must be added to the equation. I don’t think I have the mental energy to figure it out at the moment, though.

  124. Wolfpack says:

    regwald: Does the addition of Grebs give MacT the ammunition of making a 3 for 1 trade by sending away 3 defencemen ? And maybe getting a fourth one back ?

    That is crazy talk, Regwald. Please refrain from talking crazy talk on this blog as it could result in LT busting-out Chilliwack and waxing poetic about childhood road trips out to the coast.

    Something has to shake loose now, doesn’t it?

  125. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Wolfpack: That is crazy talk, Regwald. Please refrain from talking crazy talk on this blog as it could result in LT busting-out Chilliwack and waxing poetic about childhood road trips out to the coast.

    Something has to shake loose now, doesn’t it?

    Rye, Rye, Rye!!!

  126. böökje says:

    Here’s a theory – Russians play better when there are a few of them around. Belov, Grebs, Yak, and the draft picks all suggest that the Oilers are seeking to establish a new Russian tradition on the Oilers.

    I guess we are now following the Detroit model.

  127. spoiler says:

    böökje: Here’s a theory – Russians play better when there are a few of them around. Belov, Grebs, Yak, and the draft picks all suggest that the Oilers are seeking to establish a new Russian tradition on the Oilers. I guess we are now following the Detroit model.

    I think that’s a pretty solid theory, even if it doesn’t explain the trading of Komrade & Kapitan Shawn Ilyanovich Horcoff.

  128. regwald says:

    Wolfpack: That is crazy talk, Regwald. Please refrain from talking crazy talk on this blog as it could result in LT busting-out Chilliwack and waxing poetic about childhood road trips out to the coast.

    Something has to shake loose now, doesn’t it?

    At this rate, we might need to farm out some of those NHL dmen to Red Deer for the Flames to use.

  129. G Money says:

    spoiler: I think that’s a pretty solid theory, even if it doesn’t explain the trading of Komrade & Kapitan Shawn Ilyanovich Horcoff.

    I think that guy was starting to lose touch with his Russian roots, and that is the real reason why he had to go.

    Kris11: I really like Grebeshkov as a player. A fan favorite of mine. Maddening sometimes but sublime at others.

    The last year he was here, he was starting to combine his always sublime skating and passing with (finally) some intelligent defensive play.

    If he can continue where he left off, this is a stellar acquisition.

    If his lousy KHL numbers last season are indicative, it might be a player who has lost his way and ends up in the AHL and then back in the KHL.

    Kind of similar to Belov actually – imagine if those guys both work out and we suddenly have a stellar Russian second D pairing …

    Maybe that’s why MacT didn’t draft Nichushkin … there is such a thing as too dang many Russians I guess.

  130. denny33 says:

    RexLibris,

    I don’t trust Oilers managment as a natural reflex – however – I think we can say Nurse is safe for the future…

  131. denny33 says:

    Well, if Grebs can produce in the NHL like he did in the KHL we are going to make the playoffs for sure….

    Oh wait….

  132. gr8one says:

    commonfan14:
    If Florida is really interested in Omark, I suspect the Oilers would deal him for the rights to Peter Mueller– and that isn’t even a thing.

    Mueller is actually UFA, we could just sign him without giving up any asset. I’ve been beating that drum for awhile now, but alas, no one listens to me.

  133. gr8one says:

    But if we’re talking Florida though, boy would Shawn Matthias be a nice fit for our 3 line and bumping Gordon to our 4 line where I much prefer his skillset…I wonder what It would take to get him out of FLA, and sign Mueller. Glorious.

    With them drafting Barkov and Bjugstad coming up Matthias just might be attainable. Hemsky + Omark for Matthias?

    bottom six of,

    Joensuu Matthias Mueller
    Smyth Gordon Jones

    Upshall and Kulikov would be nice too, hmmm….

    Anyways, back on topic, Kyle Clifford, from what I know of him I like him but I don’t think I’d give up much…Pitlick and a second, Harski and a third, definitely not Marincin, maybe Gernat straight up but hesitantly, my fear with Clifford is Ben Eagers’ scouting report at age 22 looks awfully similar.

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