A CLOSER LOOK AT EQUIVALENCY

The most recent draft saw Edmonton select 10 players from 7 different leagues. The NHL equivalencies didn’t run through the MWEHL or Yakimov’s league last year, but we do have the rest of them surrounded. We now have two different equivalencies, the Desjardins NHLE (which has been a trusted and impressive predictor for a number of years) and the upstart Vollman (which has been around for a very little time, but does use the latest available information for it’s estimate). Here’s the latest draft run through each of them.

DESJARDINS’ NHLE (per 82gp)

  1. Marco Roy 10-15-25
  2. Jackson Houck 8-12-20
  3. Greg Chase 6-11-17
  4. Anton Slepyshev 12-3-15
  5. Evan Campbell 5-10-15
  6. Darnell Nurse 4-11-15
  7. Kyle Platzer 2-6-8
  8. Ben Betker 0-2-2
  9. Bogdan Yakimov not rated
  10. Aidan Muir not rated

Some interesting numbers here, it should be noted that Nurse didn’t get a lot of PP time this past season. If there’s an offensive jump in 2012-13 that’ll be the reason (more PP time). It should also be noted that Jackson Houck went 69, 15-24-39 at evens and Greg Chase went 69, 13-23-36 in the same discipline, so those two are much closer together as prospects if you take away the PP numbers.

VOLLMAN NHLE (per 82gp)

  1. Anton Slepyshev 17-5-22
  2. Marco Roy 10-12-22
  3. Jackson Houck 7-11-18
  4. Greg Chase 5-10-15
  5. Darnell Nurse 4-11-15
  6. Kyle Platzer 2-6-8
  7. Ben Betker 0-2-2
  8. Bogdan Yakimov not rated
  9. Aidan Muir not rated
  10. Evan Campbell not rated

The Vollman NHLE suggest Slepyshev and Roy are about equal as offensive players and should be considered the most promising forwards based purely on offensive potential. Houck and Chase trail but not by a bunch, and this coming season should be a huge tell for both (I think these two may end up being draft gems). Nurse’s offense we talked about above, and the rest are either also-rans or didn’t get rated.

After years of having prospects run from 38-to-46 NHLE in the days after the draft, these numbers may seem a little low. They’re actually solid totals, and we can use the last few post-draft NHLE’s (these are all Desjardins, per 82gp) to compare:

FORWARDS

  1. Hall 17-29-46
  2. Yakupov 18-22-40
  3. Nugent-Hopkins 11-27-38
  4. Marco Roy 15-10-25
  5. Martindale 8-16-24
  6. Jackson Houck 8-12-20
  7. Zharkov 11-7-18
  8. McCarron 6-12-18
  9. Pitlick 10-7-17
  10. Khaira 6-11-17
  11. Greg Chase 6-11-17
  12. Anton Slepyshev 12-3-15
  13. Hamilton 7-8-15
  14. Evan Campbell 5-10-15
  15. Moroz 6-3-9
  16. Ewanyk 5-4-9
  17. Kyle Platzer 2-6-8

DEFENSE

  1. Laleggia 9-21-30
  2. Darnell Nurse 4-11-5
  3. Gustafsson 5-6-11
  4. Simpson 2-9-11
  5. Klefbom 2-2-4

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8 Responses to "A CLOSER LOOK AT EQUIVALENCY"

  1. wheatnoil says:

    Although I’ve never seen Slepyshev play, the Vollman numbers seem to be more in line with the verbal about him and how highly he was ranked by Pronman and others than the Desjardins numbers.

  2. supernova says:

    LT,

    do you have a post somewhere describing the difference between desjardins and vollman equivalencies?

  3. Lowetide says:

    supernova:
    LT,

    do you have a post somewhere describing the difference between desjardins and vollman equivalencies?

    No. The Desjardins NHLE’s are kind of all over now, I usually go here
    http://nhlnumbers.com/2012/11/7/reference-library-nhl-prospect-projection

    to get a glance of what’s up. The Vollman numbers ar e in his new book and honestly make a fascinating read. His look at specific NCAA divisions was a real eye opener for me.

  4. rickithebear says:

    Slepyshev played with 2 teams.
    a clear indication of limited and increased role.

    Novokuznetsk Metallurg 15 Gm 3G 0A
    NHLE 13G-0A 13PT
    Ufa Salavat Yulayev 11Gm 4G 2A
    NHLE 23G – 12A
    Common sense says the more regular role bears better witness.

    I ilke Desjardins CHL curves that show a clear projection for perfornance by age that gives a highly likely cieling.
    At this age and in the KHL his production @ 22 should be 60% higher than current NHLE.

    Novokuznetsk Metallurg @ 22
    21G 0A
    Ufa Salavat Yulayev
    38G 18A

  5. DeadmanWaking says:

    I’m pretty sure that my last six consecutive calls to Telus “customer service” have included the right-of-passage moment when the Telus tape loop intones “We apologize for the delay. We are experiencing higher than normal call volumes.” I think I tied this to the “new normal” in some recent post, when I was only at KKK+K.

    Sheesh, they didn’t call him TamBELLini for nothing. Sometimes normal is not good enough. Pretty much any day of the calendar year over at Telus. A few Ks ago, they kept me on hold for 30 minutes. I’ve been working towards a baby GTD system (Getting Things Done). There’s this notion of keeping tickler files tagged by context. @Away_from_desk. Never happens. @Not_thinking_about sex. Actually, those neurons have never exactly queued up at the unemployment office. Even when I was five years old they were busy planning a long career. Out of sight, on occasion, but never entirely out of mind.

    Today I’m starting a new tickler context. @Higher_Than_Normal. I was doing this informally the other night. I managed to rinse and bleach and sulphite my primary while listening to Telus iTunes (a cap-free service). The evening’s rotation included my personal favorite: You Make Me Livid. I sang along with gusto. I got very cranky with the poor Indian lady when she kept insisting she was doing her best, and I kept insisting that based on the outcome, her best was greatly beside the point. I badgered her for five minutes to utter the phrase “Inadequate Staffing Level”. It’s not like she wasn’t helping other customers the entire time I devoted to sprucing my primary. I was still on the buds when it came time to choogle sixteen liters of grape sugar into the plastic urn of sparkle-brite godliness. This really made me cranky because I really hate to be dangling unkempt wires when I’m in the “additive free” stage manhandling 50 pound boxes, and shortly thereafter where the scissors are snipping open the freeze-dried inoculate and French sawdust.

    I must confess I made a bad judgment call. Telus offered me a one year contract on Internet 50: up to 50mb/s down, 10mb/s up. It was the later number that appealed to me. For a decade now I’ve wanted to run overnight off-site backups over the handy tubes.

    Well, on installation day this V1000H appliance shows up. Turns out it doesn’t support bridge mode. So now my firewall doesn’t even know it’s own external IP address. I’m double NATed. How ghetto is that? I had all my eggs in the basket of taking that POS out of the loop by bridging it into oblivion. (Someone with a great deal of Telus experience had advised that usually this is proves possible.) But no, this appliance used to do that until a recent Telus firmware update which manacled all the useful and publicly exposed passwords behind which the golden feature resides. So now I’m forced to maintain an appliance between me and the universe I inhabit (tube space) that Egghead Jr. could have programmed more competently typing with a soother that’s been bitten much too hard.

    To wit: when attempting to use the V1000H firewall configuration page with Firefox 23, every second click results in a pink 400 error. Port forwarding rules are accepted, but never show up in the list of active rules: neither an error nor a visible effect. Just a silent taunt to burn good “submits” after bad. I was trying to forward ports 0-65535. Yeah, that is a bit of middle finger. Get the eff out of my lane! I wondered if it didn’t have the use of the Arabic number system so I also tried 1-65535, and 0-65534 and 1-65534. I was working my way persistently to the conclusion it wasn’t wishing to listen. It didn’t provide enough room in the input box to try MMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMM
    MMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMM
    MMMMMMMMMMMMDXXXIV, so I was reduced to the dreaded support option.

    When I finally queued for my Higher Than Normal soma interlude–after several iTellyTune bounces to find the desk that actually supports the product tied to the phone number I supplied in the opening salvo–an English-speaking voice arose from a flaming bush and informed me that this is a known issue. The V1000H does not play nicely with Firefox. He suggested Internet Explorer. Pardon me, what does Typhoid Mary have to do with configuring the firewall appliance that I was determined to obliterate from my configuration loop until Telus poured fresh alligators down the Shawshank shaft to daylight. I said “that program sucks”. He said, “well it’s the default browser on Windows”. At this point, I was tempted to read out the entire inventory of the court’s findings of fact in the UNITED STATES OF AMERICA versus MICROSOFT CORPORATION. We would have been there a long time, but not as long as it takes to thoroughly Sanibrite my primary. But I restrained myself. I said, “Uh, Windows doesn’t have a default browser. There was a court case, and the now the user is offered a choice.”

    That last phrase sounds a bit like a middle finger, doesn’t it? It keeps slipping out. Then I asked “What if I decide that maintaining this plastic shitbox takes the shine out this fine service and I wish to have you show up and cart it off to the landfill it deserves to inhabit?” After a few prevarications, he coughed up “you did sign a one year contract”. Funny, I didn’t see in the fine print indentured servitude to a one pound lump of injection-molded plastic with digital drivel for brains. Turns out it worked under Opera–for the one operation under dispute–which was long enough for the Telus guy to send me to the back of the line for Higher Than Normal. Sayonara until the next screen.

    The following day, Telus impressed me further by having a DNS entry which resolves my IP address to a symbolic DNS address which does not actually exist in any DNS server. Hey, let me translate that shifty number into a DNS string that can’t ever be used.

    So I spend two hours yesterday evening writing some Unix scripts that violently wrest my current external IP assignment from the appliance every two seconds from now to eternity. Bonus for me: I get to hand-maintain a public DNS entry to my own firewall every time Telus decides the address needs to mutate. If this happens weekly, I’ll break down and sign up for some kind of dynamic DNS service that won’t go out of business six months after my script is finally working perfectly. Been there, done that.

    Concerning the bundled OptikTV I’m not even going to turn the first coax connector. The shitbox already causes me enough agita without the added burden of it working correctly on multiple fronts. If I want to watch the game, I’ll head to the nearest pub, which is a block less near than it used to be after the recent fire.

    When the call finished, he said “Let me tell you about some other Telus services that come with your bundle.” I said “If it concerns OptikTV, you can save your breath. I’m never plugging that thing in.” He said “Oh” and I said “I’ll trade the entire OptikTV half of my bundle just for bridge mode. Bridge mode is what this customer wants: bridge mode to eliminate this Firefox-incompatible lunk of incompetent engineering from the sphere of anything I ever think about ever again, so that we might never speak again. That’s what this customer wants. Bridge mode.”

    Then he said, “It was nice speaking with you. Have a nice day.” And that was it.

  6. G Money says:

    DeadmanWaking: Then he said, “It was nice speaking with you. Have a nice day.” And that was it.

    This is a watershed moment for me as a reader/poster on this blog. I *understood* *an* *entire* *Deadman* *post* … from start to finish! I even empathized, though my IP address issues were much simpler (and with Shaw).

    That said, I think it’s safe to say that I probably won’t be needing an @Understood_DeadmanWaking_Post tickler in my baby GTD!

  7. ASkoreyko says:

    DeadmanWaking,

    I have always enjoyed your posts good sir. As a small token of my appreciation, I can offer a solution to force your Actiontec (misnomer?) into bridge mode. I have accomplished this feat myself when I stuck on Telus, I have since gone back to Shaw and the installer switched the modem into bridge mode as soon as I asked.

    Two links for you:

    http://www.prayforsnow.com/2011/08/how-to-connect-your-own-router-to-telus-optik-tv-actiontec-router/

    http://telusinternet.blogspot.ca/2012/10/using-your-own-router-in-tandem-with.html

    One of those should provide you your solution, I was unable to actually open a port to allow me to connect to my home server from afar, but at least I was able to use my own external router.

    Good Luck!

  8. spoiler says:

    Eakins committed, no asylum for anyone.

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