A TRIP TO REASONABLE UPDATE

We’re halfway through the RE series now, with the forwards revealed and their RE established. The top line is slated to score 43% of the forward’s goals, and the top 2 lines predicted to score 74% of the forward group’s total goals. Sound lopsided? Well, the 3 and 4 lines earned it, believe me.

FORWARDS RE 2013-14

  1. Taylor Hall 70, 37-45-82
  2. Jordan Eberle 78, 28-37-65
  3. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins 62, 21-42-63
  4. Nail Yakupov 82, 29-23-52
  5. Sam Gagner 82, 15-37-52
  6. David Perron 69, 20-24-44
  7. Ales Hemsky 66, 11-25-36
  8. Ryan Smyth 72, 12-16-28
  9. Boyd Gordon 78, 5-15-20
  10. Ryan Jones 73, 9-10-19
  11. Jesse Joensuu 51, 7-7-14
  12. Anton Lander 50, 4-8-12
  13. Mark Arcobello 25, 2-6-8
  14. Ryan Hamilton 30, 1-5-6
  15. Mike Brown 51, 1-3-4
  16. Will Acton 20, 0-3-3
  17. Ben Eager 5, 0-1-1
  18. Andrew Miller 2, 0-0-0
  19. Toni Rajala 2, 0-0-0

I predicted the Oiler forwards would score 202 goals last season (2.46 per game) in 82 gp, and they scored 103 (2.14 per game) in 48 gp. I missed the estimate by 15 goals–the Nuge cost me 9, Smyth 7–but I’m guessing the same total again this year (stubborn? yes).

This season, I’m projecting Oiler forwards to score 202 goals (2.46 per game) in 82 gp.

 2013-14 EDMONTON OILERS

We’ll start with the predicted opening night lineup:

  • Center: Sam Gagner, Mark Arcobello, Boyd Gordon, Anton Lander
  • Left Wing: Taylor Hall, David Perron, Ryan Smyth, Jesse Joensuu
  • Right Wing: Jordan Eberle, Nail Yakupov, Ales Hemsky, Ryan Jones, Mike Brown
  • Left Defense: Ladislav Smid, Andrew Ference, Nick Schultz, Anton Belov
  • Right Defense: Jeff Petry, Justin Schultz, Denis Grebeshkov, Phil Larsen
  • Goaltenders: Devan Dubnyk, Jason LaBarbera

Ryan Nugent-Hopkins will miss some games and of course there will be callups–a plethora of callups:

  • Center: Will Acton, Andrew Miller
  • Left Wing: Ryan Hamilton, Ben Eager
  • Right Wing: Toni Rajala
  • Defense: Oscar Klefbom, Martin Marincin
  • Goaltender: Richard Bachman

A 23-man roster will have 9 additions for 32–and Corey Potter would have been a part of it but I don’t think he clears waivers. Saturday morning: RE blue begins with top scorer.

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46 Responses to "A TRIP TO REASONABLE UPDATE"

  1. Mjolnir says:

    What are your re for goals against?

  2. Lowetide says:

    That’s after the blue, sometime next week.

  3. TheOtherJohn says:

    LT is trying to figure out what 3 top 4 D and 6-7 bottom pairing/PB D does to your RE GA

    Better puck movers, pretty sure –Yes, Can they defend? Maybe

  4. speeds says:

    I’ll take the over on Rajala.

  5. bill needle says:

    I failed to get in on the Hemsky non-discussion in the earlier thread, so thanks for this opportunity.
    The one problem I see in these reasonable expectations, especially with Hemsky, is that he usually comes up well short of even these rather reasonable expectations.
    If that trend continues, then Oilers are looking at a 25-30 point season out of Hemsky, which would be a huge reason why no NHL teams were interested in trading for him and his $5-million salary.
    If he plays a full season with Boyd Gordon, a 36-point season would be almost as significant a feat as the 90+point season he never reached in 2009-10.
    I’d ding Ryan Smyth a few points downward too this season – he’ll be doing well to end up on the third line, and they’ll be doing too much defending to build up any significant point totals.

  6. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    “a plethora of callups”

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-mTUmczVdik

    ———-
    “RE blue begins with top scorer.”

    a-ha! a clear order is established!

  7. Mjolnir says:

    I feel bad for all of you “numbers guys” trying to make any sense out of a shortened season. I hope it didn’t pro rate your alcohol consumption during the summer.

  8. godot10 says:

    I thought I read somewhere that Belov was comfortable on the right side. Sorry I can remember where…maybe MacT’s interview transcript with Gregor on Oilernation?

    So I think it is more Grebeshkov LD and Belov RD.

  9. Woodguy says:

    Mjolnir:
    I feel bad for all of you “numbers guys” trying to make any sense out of a shortened season. I hope it didn’t pro rate your alcohol consumption during the summer.

    If there is one thing numbers guys (most) are very aware of, its making assumptions based on small samples.

    Also,

    You assume that alcohol consumption is more during the summer.

  10. rocket says:

    Lowetide: Thank you for being reasonable – with Dallas Eakins focus on defense first, it is unreasonable to expect more goals this year….

  11. justDOit says:

    Off topic, but the Jimmy Carson feature on tsn.ca about the Gretzky trade is quite good. There is almost more written between the lines about the culture of that team than there is about Jimmy. I had no idea he scored 92 goals before he turned 20. That is some kind of benchmark.

  12. striatic says:

    continuing something from the last post.

    i don’t mind gambling with the bottom six .. just not the god damn third line!

    gamble with Jones bouncing back from eye injury, gamble with Smyth bouncing back from being old, gamble with Joensuu being better than AHL level.. all great bets! i am glad MacT is making those bets. betting is good. gamble gamble gamble bet bet bet.

    just keep the gambling away from the god damn third line. three bets? there’s room for an extra forward and there is room to put the gambles on the 4th line if they don’t pay off or as you wait for them to pay off.

    in the meantime, lets get Boyd Gordon a proper, non gamble, 3LW. don’t set him up to fail, or else he’ll go as sour as Belanger did.

  13. bookje says:

    If we are still talking Police songs for the Oilers RE series next year, I vote “King of Pain” for Zdeno Chara!

    Next year is a full year away, I have high hopes!

  14. bookje says:

    What about a Ramones RE series – Now I Wanna Sniff Some Glue, I dont Wanna Go Down to the Basement, Beat on the Brat, Somebody Put Something in My Drink, I Wanna Be Sedated, Cretin Hop, Needles and Pins, Blitzkrieg Bop, Commando, I Believe in Miracles, Go Mental, Mama’s Boy, Animal Boy, Howling at the Moon, Psycho Therapy, etc…

    No shortage of relevant associations there…

  15. VanOil says:

    Mjolnir,

    Much like the old Dead Tree/Gateway news paper movie reviews. All Oilers games require some level of Alcohol consumption to be enjoyed properly. The base line being one beer or ounce per period.

    During the Tambo the Terrible years adding one drink to this base line for every face puncher in the starting lineup and or Bullin start was required. A shot of Absinthe aided Cam Barker starts.

    Other drinking was on an Ad hoc bases such as drinking for Jones falling on his ass, Eberle going top cheddar with the back hand, Yakupov putting one through the goal into the second row, Et cetera.

    This blog will provide handy tasting notes on drink pairings on a game by game basis from a variety of experts. Such as the proper Finnish Vodka to pair with an unlikely Petrell goal. Personally I am off to stock up on Johnny Walker Red today. I regarded it a rock gut but it is the elixir of Sikhdom and I need to meditate on if the the Sikh’s are the new Finns.

    As WG has mentioned much like the dedicated athletes we cheer for one must use the summer season as training for the long winter ahead.

  16. justDOit says:

    bookje,

    Bonzo Goes To Blitsburg would be a great one for KLowe’s RE!

  17. justDOit says:

    bookje,

    I Just Want To Have Something To Do – that would be Omark’s.

  18. regwald says:

    Woodguy: If there is one thing numbers guys (most) are very aware of, its making assumptions based on small samples.

    Also,

    You assume that alcohol consumption is more during the summer.

    We are Oilers fans. Of course consumption is higher from October until the first week of April. Remember, we haven’t been in the playoffs since ’06.

    And speaking of which, I think I will have another round … in anticipation of October 1.

  19. LMHF#1 says:

    Man, that center depth is just atrocious. What else is new…

    Remain optimistic there’s something up a sleeve somewhere in this organization.

  20. Woodguy says:

    Romulus Apotheosis,

    “a plethora of callups”

    Penicillin usually clears that up.

  21. Woodguy says:

    regwald: We are Oilers fans. Of course consumption is higher from October until the first week of April. Remember, we haven’t been in the playoffs since ’06.

    And speaking of which, I think I will have another round … in anticipation of October 1.

    I picked the Oilers to finish 6th in the conference last year (after Bruce said Whitney was healed. damn both of them), so I may peak in the early fall.

  22. Dead Cat Bounce says:

    If you’re projecting 202 goals or 2.46 per game, you’re projecting the Oilers to finish near the bottom of the division.

    Based on last season:

    CHI – 3.10

    ANA – 2.79

    LAK – 2.73

    DAL – 2.67

    CAL – 2.67

    WIN – 2.62

    STL – 2.58

    VCR – 2.54

    DET – 2.54

    PHX – 2.52

    MIN – 2.46

    *EDM* – 2.46 (PREDICTED)

    SJS – 2.42

    CLB – 2.40

    COL – 2.38

    Unless there is a massive swing in GA/G, things look pretty grim.

  23. Dead Cat Bounce says:

    Woodguy: I picked the Oilers to finish 6th in the conference last year (after Bruce said Whitney was healed. damn both of them), so I may peak in the early fall.

    You also predicted Hemsky would outscore Dustin Brown.

    48-29.

    :)

  24. Lowetide says:

    Woodguy: I picked the Oilers to finish 6th in the conference last year (after Bruce said Whitney was healed. damn both of them), so I may peak in the early fall.

    Hahaha. Man, we all have great memories for these things. I remember several reports that were positive on Whitney, but he certainly didn’t stand up to the rigors.

  25. Ducey says:

    Dead Cat Bounce:
    If you’re projecting 202 goals or 2.46 per game, you’re projecting the Oilers to finish near the bottom of the division.

    Based on last season:

    CHI – 3.10

    ANA – 2.79

    LAK – 2.73

    DAL – 2.67

    CAL – 2.67

    WIN – 2.62

    STL – 2.58

    VCR – 2.54

    DET – 2.54

    PHX – 2.52

    MIN – 2.46

    *EDM* – 2.46 (PREDICTED)

    SJS – 2.42

    CLB – 2.40

    COL – 2.38

    Unless there is a massive swing in GA/G, things look pretty grim.

    Or perhaps the Oilers defense will score a couple?

    LT said the FORWARDS would get 2.46 /game. The numbers you relied upon were the goals for the other teams (defense included).

  26. Dead Cat Bounce says:

    Ducey: Or perhaps the Oilers defense will score a couple?

    LT said the FORWARDS would get 2.46 /game.The numbers you relied upon were the goals for the other teams (defense included).

    The numbers from last year (for other teams) included all goals for.

    The Oilers D scored 20 goals last season which would push the Oilers to 222 goals for or 2.7 G/G good for 4th in the division.

    Is that a reasonable expectation?

  27. theres oil in virginia says:

    Ducey,
    Wow! You bounced the dead cat.

  28. theres oil in virginia says:

    Dead Cat Bounce:
    The Oilers D scored 20 goals last season which would push the Oilers to 222 goals for or 2.7 G/G good for 4th in the division.

    Are we expecting another lockout? Fucking Ed Snider.

  29. Lowetide says:

    Dead Cat Bounce: The numbers from last year (for other teams) included all goals for.

    The Oilers D scored 20 goals last season which would push the Oilers to 222 goals for or 2.7 G/G good for 4th in the division.

    Is that a reasonable expectation?

    No, the numbers above are all for forwards, defense projections aren’t part of the numbers above.

  30. regwald says:

    Woodguy: I picked the Oilers to finish 6th in the conference last year (after Bruce said Whitney was healed. damn both of them), so I may peak in the early fall.

    Will you at least last until the first snowfall ? LOL

  31. "Steve Smith" says:

    I think we might be catching a glimpse of why Captain Fox Bounce so seldom engages in earnest discussion.

  32. Woodguy says:

    Dead Cat Bounce: You also predicted Hemsky would outscore Dustin Brown.

    48-29.

    That was a very sound bet.

    Hemsky pts/gm was better than Brown in the preceding 5 seasons and was about to get softer Dcomp due to Hall emerging.

    Broke my heart that he failed.

    You owned me on that one sir.

  33. Dead Cat Bounce says:

    theres oil in virginia: Are we expecting another lockout?Fucking Ed Snider.

    I really think the Oilers success, or lack there of, will depend on the PP.

    Problem is, PP success is very serendipitous and subject to a lot of “puck luck.”

    Teams move up and down the PP rankings like a widow’s night shirt.

    Case in point, Washington:

    12/13 – 26.8% – 1st

    11/12 – 16.7% – 18th

    10/11 – 17.5% – 16th

    09/10 – 25.2% – 1st

    This is with essentially, the same PP personnel.

    The Oilers PP was among the best in the league to start last season but then faded badly so who knows if that was other teams adjusting or a reversion to the mean.

  34. theres oil in virginia says:

    Dead Cat Bounce: I really think the Oilers success, or lack there of, will depend on the PP.

    Problem is, PP success is very serendipitous and subject to a lot of“puck luck.”

    Teams move up and down the PP rankings like a widow’s night shirt.

    Case in point, Washington:

    12/13 – 26.8% – 1st

    11/12 – 16.7% – 18th

    10/11 – 17.5% – 16th

    09/10 – 25.2% – 1st

    This is with essentially, the same PP personnel.

    The Oilers PP was among the best in the league to start last season but then faded badly so who knows if that was other teams adjusting or a reversion to the mean.

    Okay, that’s interesting stuff, but I was referring to you taking the defense scoring from a 48 game schedule and not adjusting it up for an 82 game schedule for next year. (Hence my “wondering” if there was another lockout afoot.) If the Oilers defense scores at the same clip as last year, they’ll end up with 32? goals. And I think that would put them at 2nd? in the conference in scoring, if the conference remained the same as last year in team content and scoring rates. Is that reasonable? It’s not unreasonable. The reasoning has all been laid out before your very eyes.

  35. regwald says:

    Dead Cat Bounce: I really think the Oilers success, or lack there of, will depend on the PP.

    Problem is, PP success is very serendipitous and subject to a lot of“puck luck.”

    Teams move up and down the PP rankings like a widow’s night shirt.

    Case in point, Washington:

    12/13 – 26.8% – 1st

    11/12 – 16.7% – 18th

    10/11 – 17.5% – 16th

    09/10 – 25.2% – 1st

    This is with essentially, the same PP personnel.

    The Oilers PP was among the best in the league to start last season but then faded badly so who knows if that was other teams adjusting or a reversion to the mean.

    Except in 10/11 Mike Green played 49 games and 32 games in 11/12.

    An offensive dman like Green can impact a PP.

  36. Ducey says:

    Dead Cat Bounce: The numbers from last year (for other teams) included all goals for.

    The Oilers D scored 20 goals last season which would push the Oilers to 222 goals for or 2.7 G/G good for 4th in the division.

    Is that a reasonable expectation?

    The Oilers scored 2.57 goals/ game last year. To improve to 4th in the division they need to improve to 2.67 goals per game (tied with Calgary last year). That’s a whopping 8.5 goals over an 82 game season.

    Can the Oilers improve by 8.5 goals? Yeah, seems reasonable to me.

  37. Dead Cat Bounce says:

    regwald: Except in 10/11 Mike Green played 49 games and 32 games in 11/12.

    An offensive dman like Green can impact a PP.

    But he didn’t play with the Caps in 12/13.

    What impact?

  38. theres oil in virginia says:

    Dead Cat Bounce,

    Huh!? ESPN is fabricating numbers!

    PLAYER GP G A PTS +/- PIM ATOI PPG PPA
    Mike Green, D 35 12 14 26 -3 20 24:51 4 10

    14 PP points. You don’t say…

  39. Gerta Rauss says:

    godot10:
    I thought I read somewhere that Belov was comfortable on the right side.Sorry I can remember where…maybe MacT’s interview transcript with Gregor on Oilernation?

    So I think it is more Grebeshkov LD and Belov RD.

    Yeah, I recall that as well. It was just in the last 10 days or so, can’t remember exactly where and I’m far too lazy to go looking for it, but he definitely said Belov will play right D.

  40. wheatnoil says:

    Gerta Rauss: Yeah, I recall that as well. It was just in the last 10 days or so, can’t remember exactly where and I’m far too lazy to go looking for it, but he definitely said Belov will play right D.

    You’re thinking of this:

    http://www.edmontonjournal.com/sports/hockey/edmonton-oilers/MacTavish+eager+Grebeshkov+Oilers+lineup/8718907/story.html?cid=dlvr.it-twitter-edmontonjournal

  41. jp says:

    justDOit:
    Off topic, but the Jimmy Carson feature on tsn.ca about the Gretzky trade is quite good. There is almost more written between the lines about the culture of that team than there is about Jimmy. I had no idea he scored 92 goals before he turned 20. That is some kind of benchmark.

    It is some kind of benchmark. From his Wiki page (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jimmy_Carson):
    “Carson holds the record for most NHL goals by a teenager with 92 career goals before turning 20.”
    Damn he faded fast though. Started out 37-55-49 goals in his first 3 yrs, then out of the NHL by age 28. I guess his heart wasn’t in it.

  42. PunjabiOil says:

    Off topic, but the Jimmy Carson feature on tsn.ca about the Gretzky trade is quite good. There is almost more written between the lines about the culture of that team than there is about Jimmy. I had no idea he scored 92 goals before he turned 20. That is some kind of benchmark.

    Yeah, watching that mini documentary – take away points:

    1. Carson not ”fitting in as a person” – according to his teammates, and Kevin Lowe who was interviewed just highlights in cliquish the Oilers were, and still are today. There is a strong underlying theme of old boys network, and quite frankly hasn’t changed one iota in 25+ years

    2. Carson had other interests (business, stock markets) and wasn’t interested in drinking at all, or partying out til 5 am as he put it. His teammates didn’t appreciate that for some reason, nor were inclusive. A shame.

    3. Evokes memories of Joni Pitkanen. Great #3 defenceman. He too, didn’t ”fit in” and that probably played some role in him requesting a trade.

    http://hfboards.hockeysfuture.com/showthread.php?t=534628l

    Apparently you must enjoy beer guzzling and banging puck bunnies at Hudson’s to fit in the team.

    4. Was there a worse captain than Ethan Moreau, in modern day NHL history?

    a. Blamed the season on Salo the minute he got traded
    b. Pitkanen’s comments as per above
    c. Took selfish, stupid penalties in the offensive zone
    d. Never took accountability for them, and excused them as ”aggressive penalties are easier to kill”
    e. Openly talks about getting traded and looking at other team’s lineups and seeing where he’d fit in, this while he’s the captain of the Oilers.

    Also remarks “I don’t see that. For some teams it might be a bonus because they can get me for next year, too,” he said.

    http://www.faceoff.com/hockey/nhlnews/story.html?id=8369a5a7-b1b6-4d8b-98d6-aafcdb4e6c52

    I generally don’t hate players (hate is a strong word), but Ethan Moreau made for a rare exception.

    Why are we talking about Ethan Moreau again?

  43. stevezie says:

    PunjabiOil,

    I don’t see the evil in caring how someone fits into the dressing room culture.

    I’ve never played professional hockey, but I have worked on plenty of crews and it can be a legitimate issue if someone does not fit in at all with anyone else. Doesn’t make the loner a bad guy, doesn’t make the”in” crowd bad either.

    Ideally the captain helps someone fit in, but sometimes everyone has the best intentions and it just doesn’t work out. I don’t understand the disdain. This isn’t voodoo, it is normal human behaviour.

  44. Ducey says:

    PunjabiOil,

    So Carson gets 100 pts in 80 games with the Oilers, then never gets a point a game (ever again) with Detroit, Hartford, LA, and Vancouver, then can’t make it in the IHL, then retires at 28 – and this is Kevin Lowe’s/ Ethan Moreau’s/ the Oilers old boys fault?

    You know that the Oilers won their 5th Cup once he was traded?

    Strong allegations without much basis in fact there, friend.

  45. russ99 says:

    Got my new Hockey News pool guide today (digitally) and they have slightly higher point estimates for Oiler forwards:

    Hall: 85
    Eberle: 80
    Yakupov: 67
    Nugent-Hopkins: 66
    Gagner: 55
    Perron: 45
    Hemsky: 35
    Jones: 30
    Gordon: 20
    Smyth: 10

  46. Dominoiler says:

    Whoever said the PP% is all luck is way off, imo.. nice debunk w the Mike green numbers.. similarly, where was the oilers PP before the nuge and other wonder kids came around..

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