COMPARING LISTS #2

In the second (and final) installment of the summer top 20 comparisons, we look at the Cult of Hockey. Last time out, we identified that the Copper and Blue men were stronger on stronger on David Musil, Erik Gustafsson and Olivier Roy than I am, and my list prefers Mitchell Moroz, Ryan Martindale and Kale Kessy. The Cult of Hockey main list is here, let’s see where we differ:

  1. D Oscar Klefbom (2)
  2. D Darnell Nurse (1)
  3. D Martin Marincin (3)
  4. D Martin Gernat (5)
  5. C Jujhar Khaira (6)
  6. L Toni Rajala (9)
  7. D Dillon Simpson (10)
  8. L Marco Roy (4)
  9. D David Musil (15)
  10. C Mark Arcobello (17)
  11. D Brandon Davidson (16)
  12. C Bogdan Yakimov (8)
  13. D Taylor Fedun (12)
  14. L Anton Slepyshev (7)
  15. C Andrew Miller (18)
  16. R Tyler Pitlick
  17. L Mitchell Moroz (14)
  18. D Erik Gustafsson
  19. R Taylor Houck (13)
  20. C Greg Chase (19)

Lowetide top 20 not on COH list:

  • #11 Anton Belov (not ranked, ineligible for Calder)
  • #20 Kyle Platzer (#29 on COH list)

COH not on my list:

  • #16 Tyler Pitlick (I have him #24)
  • #18 Erik Gustafsson (I have him #22)

Some notes:

  • If we’re inside the top 10, I think a gap of 4 spots is pretty large. I have Marco Roy at 4, the COH boys have him 8. That’s a significant difference, but then again we had very little time to slot the guy (drafted this summer). I do think he’s the best forward prospect in the prospect pile.
  • Beyond the top 10, the COH gents like some players much more than I do, including David Musil, Mark Arcobello and Brandon Davidson. I’m not really sure what (beyond personal preference/curb appeal) would have us this far apart, but it’s interesting to see.
  • I am higher on Bogdan Yakimov, Anton Slepyshev and Taylor Houck, and that’s a very easy item to identify. I usually slot new draft picks higher than most, based on their offensive potential and in some cases NHL readiness.
  • I’m astounded–ASTOUNDED–that the COH folks have Pitlick higher than me. Seriously thought I was carrying the torch for Pitlick, turns out I’m a distant second. Whenever I write something on Pitlick, I always assume Willis will come along and chime in that it’s too optimistic! Well, now I just don’t know. :-)

COMPARING ALL THREE!

If you’ve read this far, there may actually be no hope for you. Here’s the compilation of all three lists, with ranking by individual list in brackets:

  1. D Darnell Nurse (#1 C&B, #2 COH, #1 LT) 4
  2. D Oscar Klefbom (#2 C&B, #1 COH, #2 LT) 5
  3. D Martin Marincin (#3 on all three lists) 9
  4. D Martin Gernat (#4 C&B, #4 COH, #5 LT) 13
  5. C Jujhar Khaira (#5 C&B, #5 COH, #6LT) 16
  6. R Marco Roy (#7 C&B, #8 COH, #4LT) 19
  7. D Dillon Simpson (#6, #7 COH, #10 LT) 23
  8. L Toni Rajala (#8 C&B, #6 COH, #9 LT) 23
  9. L Anton Slepyshev (#10 C&B, #14 COH #7 LT) 31
  10. C Bogdan Yakimov (#11 C&B, #12 COH, #8 LT) 31
  11. D David Musil (#9 C&B, #9 COH, #15 LT) 33
  12. D Brandon Davidson (#12 C&B, #11 COH, #16 LT) 39
  13. C Mark Arcobello (#13 C&B, #10 COH, #17 LT) 40
  14. R Jackson Houck (#17 C&B, #19 COH, #13 LT) 49
  15. C Andrew Miller (#18 C&B, #15 COH, #18 LT) 51
  16. D Erik Gustafsson (#14 C&B, #18 COH, #22 LT) 54
  17. R Tyler Pitlick (#16 C&B, #16 COH, #24 LT) 56
  18. L Mitchell Moroz (#27 C&B, #17 COH, #14 LT) 58
  19. C Greg Chase (#21 C&B, #20 COH, #19 LT) 60
  20. G Olivier Roy (#15 C&B, #21 COH, #25 LT) 61

There were two prospects who didn’t make the combined list for one reason or another:

  • Anton Belov made my list, but not the others.
  • Taylor Fedun make my list, and the C&B list, but he didn’t quality for C&B because he’s 25.

I like the combined list, it’s interesting. Takes my “new draft love” out of the equation a little, cuts back on Zona’s Moroz rage and sobers the COH love-in for Klefbom (I kid). Once again I must express complete shock that my ranking of Pitlick HURT his ranking–if I’d just stayed with the consensus Pitlick would have ranked inside the top 15.

See you late November when the winter top 20 comes calling.

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29 Responses to "COMPARING LISTS #2"

  1. Jonathan Willis says:

    Man, I hate the way that Willis guy just hangs around, looking for a chance to say ‘why are you such a Pitlick fanboy?’ and ‘why do you hate Smid?’

    For what it’s worth, I personally had Pitlick 23rd (which, I note uneasily, is one spot higher than you), but David and Bruce both like him better than I do. Davidson is a similar story – my ranking at 14 is more in line with you and out of sync with David and Bruce

    The gap on Arcobello is mostly David slotting him higher than Bruce or me; he has him as the best forward prospect in the system.

  2. Lowetide says:

    Jon: lol. I swear to God it was a laugh riot when I ran these. I did notice that you have in the same range as me, and in fairness #16 now isn’t as strong as a couple of summers ago. It’s an interesting process, no doubt. I was talking to Bruce the other day, and if that guy can figure out the foot speed thing he could play for a long time.

    I did notice you have Dillon Simpson #5, and that’s the one player in the top 10 I’d have higher on my list right now.

  3. bendelson says:

    Question: if it is going to be challenge to sign Simpson b/c of too many prospects with a head start in OKC, how many would they need to move to get him signed? Two, three?? And if so, who will they be? Fedun, Musil, Davidson? Bullets for MacT?

    Losing a top 10 prospect in order to develop guys further down that list doesn’t make a great deal of sense… Unless other factors are at play such as draft pedigree or NHL ‘readiness’ of course.

    It will be a really interesting year for that D in OKC – who takes a step forward and which players start to fall back and quickly become spare parts.

  4. Lowetide says:

    Bendelson: Marincin will be the first exposed to waivers (that’s I believe fall 2015). So, sign them all, and then make the best decision. Simpson may not feel that way, and if it comes to that the Oilers will have to deal him.

    I guess I’m saying that Simpson holds those cards (going or staying).

  5. bendelson says:

    Lowetide,

    The depth in front of him (simpson) is actually quite staggering…
    The decisions on who to commit grade A development time to and who to move will be really interesting and likely very challenging to get right given the quality of these prospects and the tendency for D to develop slowly.

  6. Manitoba Oilers says:

    1.Klefbom
    2.Nurse
    3.Marincin
    4.Slepyshev
    5.Gernat
    6.Rajala(If he’s still around)
    7.Kharia
    8.Roy
    9.Simpson
    10.Yakimov
    11.Musil
    12.Arcobello
    13.Miller
    14.Chase
    15.Houck
    16.Davidson
    17.Gustaffson
    18.Muir
    19.Pitlick
    20.Martindale

  7. spoiler says:

    It’s rodeo weeked here in Cochrane (come on down y’all, I promise not to drink all the beers) so I’m not really up on my hockey notes, but shouldn’t Rajala be excised from the lists? And shouldn’t Hartikainen still be on them?

  8. spoiler says:

    Also, what are the criteria for the three lists? Is it most talented? Closest to the NHL? Most likely to play the most NHL games? Do the lists have different criteria for their rankings? Hard to compare without knowing these things, while sitting here on my phone, amongst all this livestock.

  9. Lowetide says:

    spoiler:
    It’s rodeo weeked here in Cochrane (come on down y’all, I promise not to drink all the beers) so I’m not really up on my hockey notes, but shouldn’t Rajala be excised from the lists?And shouldn’t Hartikainen still be on them?

    The lists were all made before he was excised (great word). Hartikainen isn’t on mine because he’s played more than 50 NHL games. No matter what happens from here on out, my system considers Harski a successful pick (163rd overall, 52 NHL games) although I think he’ll be back.

  10. prairieschooner says:

    Talking about depth and stuff this type of planning almost seems like a new thing for the Oilers, well at least the Blogsperts
    How do other teams resolve these issues before they become a problem?
    Will the Oilers have to stop giving as many at bats to developing players, something that Tambi and Lowe both had difficulty with

  11. Lowetide says:

    prairieschooner:
    Talking about depth and stuff this type of planning almost seems like a new thing for the Oilers, well at least the Blogsperts
    How do other teams resolve these issues before they become a problem?
    Will the Oilers have to stop giving as many at bats to developing players, something that Tambi and Lowe both had difficulty with

    I think we’re miles from having a problem with the defense. The Oilers may have to send one of Musil or Gernat to Stockton this season but they had a bunch of kids there last season and NHLers like Dubnyk have been there for entire seasons (or close).

    The problem as I see it comes with guys like Simpson, who has an option because he isn’t signed.

  12. bendelson says:

    Lowetide,

    They will be headed to Bakerfield this season…

  13. bendelson says:

    Why do you hate the Condors so much?

  14. speeds says:

    One thing EDM can offer that other teams can’t is burning his 1st ELC year in the spring when his college year is over. He wouldn’t go UFA until August, so if he decides the EDM org doesn’t work for him, his ELC wouldn’t start until 14/15 with a new team, while it could potentially start in 13/14 with EDM.

  15. wheatnoil says:

    With regard to Simpson:

    Right now, things looked pretty blocked for him and, if I were his agent, I’d be advising him to consider hitting free agency to give himself a chance to land with an organization with a clearer NHL path.

    However, a lot can change in a year by the time it comes time to sign.

    Example, by next year:
    a) N. Schultz will likely be gone for a draft pick or just not resigned
    b) Marincin may be gone for a prospect forward, a goaltender prospect, or as part of a (gasp) 3 for 1.
    c) Belov may either not pan out or may do so well that he prices himself out of Edmonton
    d) Gernat could move to forward
    e) Musil or Gernat crash and burn at the pro level a la Bunz
    f) Klefbom struggles / gets injured or, conversely, does so well that he forces the N. Schultz trade and commands an NHL spot, clearing an AHL spot for another LHD.
    g) Injuries can hit any / all of the above hard (see Fedun, Taylor)
    h) Simpson could be wanting to continue to play on the right side (his stated preferred side) in pro and Potter or Larsen may be gone on waivers / not resigned, leaving just a now 26 year old Fedun as the only right shooting D prospect in the damn system not in the NHL.

    This is a storyline to follow, but a year can change a lot in a depth chart. I’m sure Simpson is watching closely.

  16. Hammers says:

    Hopefully Nurse gets through the next 2 years without injury . Players can move up or down based on 1 concussion or 1 major injury . Great prospect, as is Klefbom ( who has survived injuries ) but to what degree . Funny all 3 picked Marinchin at 3rd so is a solid pick . I can see those 3 with Schultz , Smid & Petry in a 2-3 years .Hopefully we are a well established team by then .

  17. Jonathan Willis says:

    The other item in Simpson’s favour is that while a left-handed shot he’s more comfortable on the right side. The Oilers have a million defence prospects but they’re almost exclusively left defence.

  18. fuzzy muppet says:

    Not to be a negative nelly, but if Mark Arcobello is the best forward prospect, this organization is in big trouble.

    I know it was limited viewing, but he does not look like an NHL forward at all. He’s an older fringe prospect At Best.

  19. FastOil says:

    1. Nurse
    2. Klefbom
    3. Khaira
    4. Marincin
    5. Gernat
    6. M Roy
    7. Chase
    8. Houck
    9. O Roy
    10. Simpson

  20. rickithebear says:

    WheatNOil:
    What happens if J. schultz has another historic level of suck for GA this year?

    i am more certain of a dman from the KHL who ‘s Ga projects to +40 better than schultz last year!

  21. maudite says:

    rickithebear:
    WheatNOil:
    What happens if J. schultz has another historic level of suck for GA this year?

    i am more certain of a dman from the KHL who ‘s Ga projects to +40 better than schultz last year!

    If this were a military battle:

    You are picking a very open and exposed hill to dig in on…

  22. wheatnoil says:

    rickithebear:
    WheatNOil:
    What happens if J. schultz has another historic level of suck for GA this year?

    i am more certain of a dman from the KHL who ‘s Ga projects to +40 better than schultz last year!

    I don’t believe I was clear about the thrust of my comment. I was simply stating that prospect depth can change rather rapidly at a position, given the way prospects develop and due to trades and injuries. What looks like a steep mountain to climb for Simpson now may not look the same next year at this time. Further, as Jonathan Willis pointed out far more clearly than I did, Simpson prefers to play the right side, which is a position of relative weakness in the Oilers prospect depth chart. If, as you allude to, J. Schultz struggles on the defensive side of the game to the point where he can not play top 4 defense, that would only further open a window of opportunity for Simpson in the future (as well as Fedun, Belov, Potter, and Larsen more proximally).

    Your concerns about J. Schultz’s goals for and against are a separate topic entirely.

  23. Jonathan Willis says:

    maudite,

    “Here Colonel Custer, let me help you with those gatling guns.”

    “Gatling guns? Where we’re going we don’t need gatling guns.

  24. rickithebear says:

    wheatnoil: Your concerns about J. Schultz’s goals for and against are a separate topic entirely.

    I quite liked how you framed it.

    He is a prospect.
    Terrible GA makes him a less valuable asset.
    Affects were we are at.

  25. rickithebear says:

    Last year we had the 3rd best tough comp pair in the Game Smid-petry.
    we had the best GA third comp pair in the Game. Fistric-Potter.
    We had the worst 2nd comp combo of Schultz-Schultz-Whitney.

    Maudite your concept of what is defence able is a little skewed.
    Worst GA 2nd pair in the Game.
    It is buried in the mountains near denver controling the drone system and all the sattelites with missle capabilities.

    exposed Hill!
    you gave a great Metaphor!
    Beauty!

    wheat ;
    //opens up Simpson//
    EXACTLY

  26. rickithebear says:

    JW:
    1876?
    1876!

  27. jp says:

    rickithebear:
    Last year we had the 3rd best tough comp pair in the Game Smid-petry.
    we had the best GA third comp pair in the Game. Fistric-Potter.
    We had the worst 2nd comp combo of Schultz-Schultz-Whitney.

    I would have thought that any metric declaring Fistric-Potter the best at anything would have been discarded as clearly not representing reality (either 1 – because of radical variance due to small sample sizes, or 2 – because it is a poor proxy for success).

  28. Bruce McCurdy says:

    spoiler: Do the lists have different criteria for their rankings?

    Lowetide’s prospects “graduate” when they have played 50 NHL games.

    C&B’s graduate when they turn 25. C&B’s Top 25 Under 25 also include full-fledged NHLers like Hall & Co. who dominate the top six of the list. LT eliminated those guys for the purposes of making comparisons, otherwise C&B would have been 6-10 rankings lower on average for everybody who is still an actual “prospect”.

    CoH goes by strict Calder eligibility. Thus Lander & Hartikainen were off our list as of last summer due to exceeding GP thresholds, while the likes of Belov, Acton, and R. Hamilton never got considered because they are 26+ now. LT simply noted the absence of Belov without adjusting the remainder of our list because he was a single exception, not a six-pack right at the top of the rankings.

    Strengths and weaknesses to each method.

    Thanks for doing this, LT, makes for a cool comp. I also think Pronman’s list makes an interesting p.o.v. as well.

  29. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Note re: LD/RD, that David Musil is also a left-shooting d-man with much more experience playing the right side than his “natural” flank. Played RD almost exclusively in Edmonton (with Keegan Lowe on LD), and it seemed to be the same anytime I saw him with Vancouver.

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