OKC RE 13-14: IT’S GOING TO BE A LONG, COLD, LONELY WINTER

A year ago, I predicted the Barons would go 238-190 GF-GA, and they went 236-210. This season? They’re going to be challenged offensively, but the defense should be able to tighten up a great deal.

Last season’s RE is here.

OKC RE 13-14 (FORWARDS)

  1. Andrew Miller 73, 16-37-53
  2. Mark Arcobello 50, 17-29-46
  3. Ben Eager 71, 15-28-43
  4. Derek Nesbitt 66, 19-22-41
  5. Matthew Ford 66, 16-18-34
  6. Ryan Hamilton 46, 18-13-31
  7. Ryan Martindale 70, 13-17-30
  8. Tyler Pitlick 56, 9-16-25
  9. CJ Stretch 67, 10-13-23
  10. Curtis Hamilton 55, 10-10-20
  11. Travis Ewanyk 73, 5-14-19
  12. Will Acton 50, 5-12-17
  13. Kale Kessy 65, 7-9-16
  14. Anton Lander 22, 5-6-11
  15. Cameron Abney 32, 0-2-2
  • Goals by forwards 2011-12: 183
  • Goals by forwards 2012-13: 194
  • Goals Est. by F’s 2013-14: 166

It looks drastic, because it is. The top scorers a year ago (Eberle: 34, 25-26-51; Rajala 46, 17-28-45; Hartikainen 47, 14-23-37; Hall 26, 14-20-34; Cornet 46, 15-18-33; Cheechoo 35, 13-19-32) are all gone, and they’ve been replaced by Andrew Miller, Derek Nesbitt, Matt Ford, Ryan Hamilton and Will Acton. Barring a late summer influx of talent, the Barons have gone from the penthouse to the warehouse under the outhouse in terms of forwards. Man. That’s a talent drop.

 OKC RE 13-14 (DEFENSE)

  1. Brad Hunt 65, 4-22-25
  2. Martin Martincin 65, 4-17-21
  3. Taylor Fedun 70, 5-15-20
  4. Phil Larsen 60, 3-16-19
  5. Oscar Klefbom 60, 1-12-13
  6. Brandon Davidson 50, 3-7-10
  7. Martin Gernat 50, 3-10-13
  8. David Musil 31, 1-1-2
  • Goals by defensemen 2012-13: 42
  • Goals Est. by D’s 2013-14: 24

A big drop in production, as one might expect (there’s no defenseman who is going to push like Justin Schultz a year ago, and the forwards are far less dynamic).

FINAL OFFENSIVE NUMBERS

  • Total Goals 2011-12: 208
  • Total Goals 2012-13: 236
  • Total Goals Est 13-14: 190

THE GOALTENDING

The Barons goalies faced 28.9 shots on goal per game last season, up from 27.97 the previous season. I’m going to predict the club is a little stronger defensively this coming season, mostly because coach Nelson prefers it and this team is going to have to prevent goals because they’re sure as hell not going to score them. So, my estimate for SA per game in OKC during 2013-14 is 28.2

  • Richard Bachman 45, 103 2.29 .919
  • Oliver Roy 21, 54  2.57 .909
  • Tyler Bunz 10, 28 2.80 .901
  • Total goals Against 2011-12: 165
  • Total goals Against 2012-13: 210
  • Total goals Against 2013-14: 185

OKC GF-GA EST 2013-14: 190-185

If Todd Nelson gets this bunch to 40 wins, they should build him a monument next to Gretzky’s. Seriously. The offense for this team is going to come with hard work and driving to the net, and I suspect it’s by design. An additional Cheechoo or two wouldn’t go a-miss.

(Eberle photo by Rob Ferguson. All rights reserved).

written by

The author didn‘t add any Information to his profile yet.
Related Posts

25 Responses to "OKC RE 13-14: IT’S GOING TO BE A LONG, COLD, LONELY WINTER"

  1. TheOtherJohn says:

    That is an awfully inexperienced D. 170 AHL games plus whatever Hunt and Larsen played, but hey our management group is REAL solid now that the dictator that was Steve Tambellini is gone.

    Good thing it doesn’t take D longer to develop because a real young D group could blow up real bad

    I’ll go with GF 175 and GA of 220

  2. Lowetide says:

    Klefbom has SEL experience, Larsen is a pretty experienced guy and Fedun is an older player with a year plus playoffs. Marincin is a go to guy as well after last season and Davidson is young but has some pro experience.

    I didn’t include Joey Leach btw. I think the Oilers might send Gernat or Musil to the ECHL but decided to play it straight up, and let them decide.

  3. delooper says:

    Farmer’s Almanac is making the same prediction for the 2013-2014 winter. Unusually long and cold.

  4. Woodguy says:

    Pitlick has no injury and no NHLer taking his spot.

    I’m going out on a limb and giving him 70gp 21g 32a 53pts

    He is going to be one to emerge from this group of ham fisted big men.

    He’ll get 1PP time and work his way up to major 5v5 toi.

    Ok, I’m being wildly optimistic, but he’ll sure as hell beat Martindale.

  5. Dead Cat Bounce says:

    If the Barons have a losing season in Cox Convention Centre, will there be a sound?

  6. Woodguy says:

    TheOtherJohn:
    That is an awfully inexperienced D. 170 AHL games plus whatever Hunt and Larsen played, but hey our management group is REAL solid now that the dictator that was Steve Tambellini is gone.

    Good thing it doesn’t take D longer to develop because a real young D group could blow up real bad

    I’ll go with GF 175 and GA of 220

    They lost Jones, Stafford and Hotham from the playoff team.

    None of them played a pile in the regular season:

    Jones 18gp
    Stafford 8gp
    Hotham 24gp

    Replaced with:

    Brad Hunt
    Klefbom
    Larsen

    Older and better from last year’s team:

    Fedun
    Marincin
    Davidson

    Fedun and Marincin played key roles on the team once the NHLers left, including the playoffs.

    There’s every reason to think the OKC D will actually be better this year.*

    *I’m talking about post locked out player roster

  7. Woodguy says:

    Dead Cat Bounce:
    If the Barons have a losing season in Cox Convention Centre, will there be a sound?

    When they went deep in the playoffs was there?

  8. Woodguy says:

    I wonder how Nelson feels about all of this.

    Probably still a little hurt for not getting a sniff at the Oiler’s HC job.

    His AHL record is similar to Eakins, although there is a good argument that Eakins did it with less talent.

    Nelson, like all AHL coaches, is trying to build a resume to move up to the next level.

    By all reports he’s gone from a GM that loaded him with vets so he could win to a GM that is loading him with kids and saying “develop us some NHLers”

    That’s not good for the resume in the win/loss column.

    Mind you, his resume of graduating talent to the NHL is a little thin and could use work too.

  9. Lowetide says:

    Tyler Pitlick AHL 106, 10-23-33 .311
    Martindale AHL 57, 6-10-16 .281

    Projections above have Pitlick at .446 and Martindale at .429.

  10. TheOtherJohn says:

    I like the odds of the inexperienced OKC D doing the job over Pitlick throwing up 21-32- 53. Generally you look to the past to predict the future. With Pitlick it’s more like we’d really like him to be a player so what the heck, let’s throw up a decent 3rd AHL season

    OKC D is very inexperienced. That might not be relevant or it could be very relevant particularly pairec with a weak offense

  11. Brackenburied says:

    “suspect it’s by design.” Flush all the skill so we can create a pipeline of grinders to the big club. Is that what you are getting at?

  12. cabbiesmacker says:

    Woodguy:
    I wonder how Nelson feels about all of this.

    Probably still a little hurt for not getting a sniff at the Oiler’s HC job.

    Mind you, his resume of graduating talent to the NHL is a little thin and could use work too.

    I have it on pretty good authority that he could have at least been considered for an AC position and not looked one step out of place from the boobs behind the bench now.

    and WG? Which kids did he actually have a chance to help graduate to the NHL? OIlers outside of the first round have drafted shit for a looong time and graduated others early so I’d be interested in knowing which you deem as “could have been coached better to get there.”

    Did MPS play better after his extended stints down there? I’d say so.

    Pretty tough to sew a silk purse from a sows arsehole

  13. Kris11 says:

    With Rajala gone, the OKC/tweener/4th line depth is pretty poor. Given that MacT and Eakins seem to want a lot of competition amd depth at D, I suspect they want the same at F.

    It seems likely that MacT will grab an F, preferably a C, off waivers or make a small deal. It won’t be a great player, but somebody who can at least possibly fill in on the 4th in a pinch, and who can play well in OKC. Such players will be available, of course.

  14. Hammers says:

    I’m expecting the “D” to have 2 of the top5 point getters .I also say they won’t make the playoffs and Nelson will move on . He was a Tambo hire with lots of extra help re players . He won’t get that from McT . I’m also expecting another player seen as an NHL lock down on the farm plus McT isn’t done yet . I won’t be surprised to see 2 more players at camp .

  15. Ice Sage says:

    Mmmm boobs… why do OKC threads always drift to them pillowy funbags of mirth?

    Just back from the Sounders game. Man, there’s a sports experience that transcends the on-field happenings. NFL-esque. Here’s to recapturing that feeling in Rexall, May 14.

    OKC is serving it’s purpose and should be the bipolar opposite of the big club. Here’s to a shitty season, barons!

  16. 106 and 106 says:

    Woodguy,

    When they had Hall, Eberle, Schultz was there?

  17. Bruce McCurdy says:

    cabbiesmacker,

    Yeah, I had an idea I was forgetting other, uhh, apparitions.

  18. Woodguy says:

    TheOtherJohn:
    I like the odds of the inexperienced OKC D doing the job over Pitlick throwing up 21-32- 53. Generally you look to the past to predict the future. With Pitlick it’s more like we’d really like him to be a player so what the heck, let’s throw up adecent 3rd AHL season

    OKC D is very inexperienced. That might not be relevant or it could be very relevant particularly pairec with a weak offense

    John, you know that this year’s D will have more experience than the D that played 80% of the regular season last year right?

    They loaded up on vets for the playoffs, not during the regular season.

  19. Woodguy says:

    Lowetide:
    Tyler Pitlick AHL 106, 10-23-33 .311
    Martindale AHL 57, 6-10-16 .281

    Projections above have Pitlick at .446 and Martindale at .429.

    You keep your math away from pipe dreams poindexter!

  20. Woodguy says:

    106 and 106:
    Woodguy,

    When they had Hall, Eberle, Schultz was there?

    Yes

  21. Woodguy says:

    cabbiesmacker: I have it on pretty good authority that he could have at least been considered for an AC position and not looked one step out of place from the boobs behind the bench now.

    and WG? Which kids did he actually have a chance to help graduate to the NHL? OIlers outside of the first round have drafted shit for a looong time and graduated others early so I’d be interested in knowing which you deem as “could have been coached better to get there.”

    Did MPS play better after his extended stints down there? I’d say so.

    Pretty tough to sew a silk purse from a sows arsehole

    Its impossible to say “if player X had a more development oriented coach, then they would have come along better”

    Who knows?

    His track record is what it is.

    You can’t say definitively either way.

    Maybe more kids or better under a different coach, or the same coach with a different directive?

    You can’t point squarely at the players or the coach because we can’t run a controlled experiment on it.

    Given his usage of vets and kids he was coaching to win.

    Not every AHL team has that directive.

  22. russ99 says:

    Bill Scott (GM of the Barons) is very proactive about filling the roster.

    I wonder if they’re over the 5-6 overage skaters threshhold, and if not, they can add another AHL-veteran scoring forward.

    IMO, they’re at 5 – Eager, Nesbitt, Ford, R. Hamilton and Hunt by my count. Again, the number of games where a player becomes overage is 260 professional games, including Euro pro leagues.

  23. TheOtherJohn says:

    The Barons have a D with 170 AHL games played. They do not have Hall, Eberle, RNH & Schultz for 1/22 season. It may work. I would be surprised if it works but it very well may. It would certainly call into question the axiom that D take longer to develop.

Leave a Reply

Want to join the discussion?
Feel free to contribute!

Leave a Reply

© Copyright - Lowetide.ca