RE 13-14 ALES HEMSKY: FAME

It’s my experience that when a decade passes without agreement, we’re either talking about Middle East peace or an Edmonton Oiler. Ales Hemsky could part the Red Sea with his ability to divide people on the simplest issues–especially Oiler fans.

RE 13-14: 66, 11-25-36

  1. Who does he play with? As much skill as possible, and 2nd PP.
  2. Who does he play with? Probably Boyd Gordon and Ryan Smyth.
  3. SEXY! I know, but there will be injuries and slumps and learning curves. Hemsky will force the issue based on skill.
  4. Is there any combination of events that could put him front and center with skill? Eakins has 7 skill guys, 8 if you count Jones. Teams always talk about three scoring lines, but it always ends up being two scoring lines and two lines who can’t pass the puck worth a tinker’s dam. Oiler teams, anyway.
  5. Who did he play most with last season? Sam Gagner (300 5×5 minutes) and Nail Yakupov (143 minutes 5×5). He did not play well with Gagner (42.1% with, 47.5% w/o) but did play fairly well with the rookie (46.3% with, 43.1% w/o).
  6. Will he do better this season should they be the 2line at some point? This gets into Dellow’s system work on his big data study, but yes I think so. Gagner-Hemsky have played well together in the past (51.5% together in 11-12) and should be able to do it again. There was some kind of (and this is Dellow’s work) breakdown in system or post face-off structure that caused the line to fold line a cheap tent very often. There’s every chance the same trio could improve markedly just by having a different set of instructions from offensive zone faceoffs, and we’ll all be talking about their incredible improvement–when in actuality it’ll be the blackboard boys who have set success in motion.
  7. He seems very healthy according to your RE. Well, it’s basically a three year average of GP. Hemsky has been healthy more than half the time over the last three seasons.
  8. What does he do well? Post offensive numbers, they’re declining but still in the range of a top 6F. He was 2nd among regular forwards in 5×4 offense and in the top 6F’s at 5×5/60 this past season, and I think we all know this wasn’t one of his strongest. He can do it against tougher opponents too. A big item. He has–even on the bad teams–had the puck going in a good direction during most of his time in Edmonton.
  9. You keep hanging on to this idea that he still has it. Hemsky’s been safely inside the top 6F’s in scoring 5×5 forever on this team, suspect that’ll continue despite the new alignment. He doesn’t play a feature role, but is most certainly capable of pushing the river–something few of these kids can do yet.
  10. That’s code for Hall territory. A healthy Hemsky is more hell than a little bit. I don’t think there’s any serious doubt about his ability to play on any line for this team. There may come a time when Edmonton has too much established talent on RW to  ignore 83, but that day is most certainly not on the horizon.
  11. His time is over here, you know. I expect you’re right, this is his final season, might be gone by fall–there’s still a chance they get something done, one imagines there will be an August move.
  12. What will we remember him for? Hemsky was supremely skilled and delivered excitement during a period where there was very little. The one time he had a chance to play on a really good team he led that club in points and then had a terrific playoff run. I’m not sure how anyone can suggest he lacks toughness after seeing him run up against the Regehr’s over and over and over again, but as I mentioned above after a decade fighting about and getting nowhere, let’s move on. Ales Hemsky is either a wonderful player who spent a decade thrilling the home crowd and stood tall in the moment when it mattered most, or he isn’t. I’m done arguing about it.
  13. So is MacT, apparently. What did he say at the beginning of the summer?For guys who’ve been here a long time and have suffered through this (rebuilding process), Ales has been a good Oiler for us. I don’t want to talk about him. There is a human side and the last thing I want to do is talk about a guy’s future without talking to him first.”
  14. Where will he end up? Ottawa.
  15. When? Late summer through deadline, somewhere in there.
  16. For what? Colin Greening, maybe Zack Smith.
  17. Will you write an addition when they do it? Sure. Probably just update the RE.
  18. Is this a sad goodbye? Not really. Hemsky will win his Stanley like Weight did, and the Oilers have a wonderful future.
  19. Too bad it had to end this way. If Hemsky were a lesser player, he would have been gone miles ago. Teams rarely say goodbye to hockey players this good when they’re still in their 20′s.
  20. He turns 30 in seven days. Then we’re right on time.

ALES HEMSKY VOLLMAN SLEDGEHAMMER 2012-13

hemsky vollman

ALES HEMSKY 12-13

  • 5×5 points per 60: 1.40 (6th among regular forwards)
  • 5×4 points per 60: 5.87 (2nd among regular forwards)
  • Qual Comp: 4th toughest among regular forwards (second line opp)
  • Qual Team: 6th best teammates among regular forwards
  • Corsi Rel: -1.3 (6th best among regular forwards, -12.72 CorsiON)
  • Zone Start: 50.2% (8th easiest among regular forwards)
  • Zone Finish: 48.0% (10th best among regular forwards)
  • Shots on goal/percentage: 82/10.98% (5th among F’s>70 shots)
  • Boxcars: 38, 9-11-20
  • Plus Minus: -6 on a team that was -15

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

5th element

We’re back after a relaxing long weekend, this morning at 10 on Team 1260. Scheduled to appear:

  • Tyler Dellow from mc79 hockey. Dellow will guide us through the C situation sans Nuge, and we’ll talk Hemsky’s future.
  • Terry McConnell who co-wrote the book I’d Trade Him Again. We’ll talk about ‘the trade’ from the Pocklington pov.
  • Michael Parkatti from Boys on the Bus. Michael and I will talk Hemsky, and try to find him a slot on the current roster that best uses his skill set.
  • Brian King breaks down the Eskimo loss on the weekend.
  • Guy Flaming from the Pipeline Show. Guy broke some news last week–San Jose is using Corsi for junior players and the draft!–we’ll talk about that, the Ivan Hlinka, the Oil Kings and where their graduates are headed, plus more.

@Lowetide_ is the best way to reach me during the show, and 10-1260 gets you on the air if you make Connor laugh. Hope you can tune in!

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67 Responses to "RE 13-14 ALES HEMSKY: FAME"

  1. Ca$h-Money! says:

    RW has to be the hardest position for this series. Too much skill, not enough minutes.

    I figured you would have the hardest time being reasonable with this one. That said I’m OK with 66gp 36pts. Very reasonable.

    Would it be weird if I said I’m proud of you?

    One more prediction: better pace than this to start the year, but a decline late because he will be playing injured… which will prevent us from trading him at the deadline. As much as he loves Edmonton no way he signs on to play 3RW anymore, and we lose him for nothing. That said, teams lose players to free agency all the time, but given how long we’ve been shopping this guy, him leaving on his own will hurt.

  2. regwald says:

    He’s been my favorite Oiler for a long time. He scored some of the big goals in the ’06 run and has proven time and time again how valuable he is. I will be sad to see him go.

    To be realistic, however, paying your 3rd line RW $5M just doesn’t make sense either.

  3. russ99 says:

    If Hemsky stays and is healthy, my money is on him beating that RE, possibly by a wide margin, even with third line tough minutes.

    This is his contract year, and the writing is on the wall.

  4. Woodguy says:

    MacT said the other day that he sees the trade market heating up again at training camp once GM’s have a look at their team and see what they need.

    He also mentioned that “skill is always in demand and we may have some skill that is available”

    I’m not sure Hemsky makes it to November as an Oiler.

    OTT certainly needs RW, but not sure they can fit Hemsky under their self imposed cap.

    I like Greening, and he actually outscored Hemsky 5v5 last year with 1.51pts/60 facing 4/12 CorQC.

    He’d slot nicely at 3LW with the ability to move up if injury occurs.

    Big boy at 6’2″ 220lbs.

    Scored 4pts in 10 playoff games as well.

    I love Hemsky and will miss him dearly.

    Thankfully Eberle and Yak will keep my mind off his loss at RW after he goes.

  5. russ99 says:

    If we sell low on Hemsky before the season for a coke machine, I’ll be angry on general principle.

    Then doubly so if one of our top 6 guys gets hurt during the season with no skilled cover. How many injuries have we had to our top 6 the last few seasons?

  6. Clarkenstein says:

    Hemsky (and his contract) are worth a 3rd rounder.

  7. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    I think that RE is about right. But I can’t help thinking Hemsky is going to wish he didn’t sign on with Tambo for two more years to be buried and blow his UFA years. He should be making bank right now and free-wheeling in a team’s top 6.

    ——-
    I’ll never be resigned to losing Hemsky, or how a large portion of Oiler fans view him through radically different eyes.

    That said, Greening or Smith would be nice additions. Just don’t like the price. I do like the idea of Hemsky hoisting the cup as a Senator.

  8. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    russ99: no skilled cover

    Let’s do a thought experiment. Hemsky is in Ott, a top 6 goes down.

    Available options (in no particular order — see I can go off the board!): Jones, Rajala, Arco as likely candidates: Hamilton, Miller, Joensuu, Smyth as less likely candidates.

  9. goldenchild says:

    I believe there will be opportunities to play with skill for him, I mentioned this before but using Perron -Gordon – Hemsky makes some sense to me, if use the big fin or jones with Gagner on a soft mins line with eiether Yak or Eberle on the right.

    Regardless it is clear that the end is near and Fuck I will miss him. He was the main reason to tune in for nearly a decade, took all kinds of flack from media and fans for things dont matter one bit, played in all situations and scored some of the biggest goals in that dream 2006 run. A couple of terrific seasons with 10 and Penner that his critics always gloss over, never stopped attacking even when it was in his best interests.Ill cheer like hell for him regardless of the team he ends the season with.

    Oh almost forgot. Fuck you Regher

  10. OilClog says:

    Romulus Apotheosis:
    I think that RE is about right. But I can’t help thinking Hemsky is going to wish he didn’t sign on with Tambo for two more years to be buried and blow his UFA years. He should be making bank right now and free-wheeling in a team’s top 6.

    ——-
    I’ll never be resigned to losing Hemsky, or how a large portion of Oiler fans view him through radically different eyes.

    That said, Greening or Smith would be nice additions. Just don’t like the price. I do like the idea of Hemsky hoisting the cup as a Senator.

    I don’t, should be hoisting it in copper and blue.

  11. Hammers says:

    Probably our best forward over the last 7-8 years with little help . I don’t understand fans who downgrade not only him but others when we had a crappy team . Hope McT hangs on for 25 or more games to get best value and I hope like hell Oiler fans cheer Hemmer on his first trip back .

  12. stevezie says:

    I think he will do better than that, but I believe the description fits the definition of reasonable.

    I can’t wait for October.

  13. theres oil in virginia says:

    Romulus Apotheosis:
    …(in no particular order — see I can go off the board!)…

    That was difficult for you, wasn’t it. You’re very brave to attempt to overcome this condition without professional assistance. I applaud your effort.
    ;)

  14. Wolfie says:

    I really expected the song for Hemsky to be Ziggy Stardust….

    His seeming inevitable departure is going to sting a little. Even though he’s being pushed aside by the shiny new things he is vastly under appreciated. Not just in Edmonton, but around the league. I can see why people would be hesitant to trade for a guy with the question marks he has but look around the league and see how many teams he could help in a top 6 role…. The price isn’t even that bad for 1 year.

    I hope this team really lights it up this year. I’d love for Hemsky to stick around for the glory days to come. Economics and history suggest otherwise.

  15. Woodguy says:

    Romulus Apotheosis,

    He should be making bank right now and free-wheeling in a team’s top 6.

    For a guy who has put up 56pts in the last 107 gp, cashing $5MM is ok.

    I don’t think that his production in the last two years are what he’ll do going forward (should improve, especially in a top 6 role on a different team), but sports is the ultimate what-have-you-done-for-me-lately.

  16. justDOit says:

    Eakins has 7 skill guys, 8 if you count Jones…

    I’m imagining Eakins reading that this morning and choking on his coffee.

  17. Factotum says:

    LT, you’ll never get any argument from me. Hemsky has been a wonderful, wonderful player.

    I hope he stays. No one should assume that all of the wingers in the presumptive top 6 will stay healthy. Perron has been very durable aside from the one concussion, and Yak hasn’t missed any time yet, but between the two of them, Hall and Eberle have averaged 20 games missed due to injury (combined) per 82 over the last three seasons.

    If injuries hit – we ARE talking about the Edmonton Oilers here – and they don’t have Hemsky to move up the lineup, they will desperately need more scoring on the wings (e.g. Morrow, Boyes).

    Here’s where an Omark might come in handy, too, but I realize that ship has sailed.

    I still like a roster with Hemsky on it much more than one without.

  18. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Eakins has 7 skill guys, 8 if you count Jones.

    I’ve defended Jones a time or two in this space, but no way do I consider him a “skill guy”. A depth player with a nose for the net is as far as I’ll go. Long, long way behind the 7 actual skill guys. He’s a versatile guy who can fill in on occasion, but in general the further down the line-up he plays the better off Oilers are.

  19. bookje says:

    Eakins has 7 skill guys, 8 if you count Jones.

    9 if you count Ben Eager

  20. Jordan says:

    Bruce McCurdy,

    Huh.

    I agree with you that Jones isn’t a skill guy, but… I now have a question about Horcoff – was he considered a Skill guy? I always thought so, but… Not sure.

    I guess the reason I ask is I’m looking at the Oilers forwards and I wondering if they’re actually any deeper this year, than they were last.

    I mean, I’ll be the first to say that the makeup of the bottom 6 is a little different, and hopefully better, but… I’m starting to think the Oilers forwards are actually shallower this year than last. They may still be better overall simply due to addition by subtraction, but… The bottom six doesn’t scream contender depth to me.

  21. Lowetide says:

    I like Jones far more on a soft minutes skill line. He can score goals

  22. regwald says:

    Jordan:
    Bruce McCurdy,

    Huh.

    I agree with you that Jones isn’t a skill guy, but… I now have a question about Horcoff – was he considered a Skill guy?I always thought so, but… Not sure.

    I guess the reason I ask is I’m looking at the Oilers forwards and I wondering if they’re actually any deeper this year, than they were last.

    I mean, I’ll be the first to say that the makeup of the bottom 6 is a little different, and hopefully better, but… I’m starting to think the Oilers forwards are actually shallower this year than last.They may still be better overall simply due to addition by subtraction, but… The bottom six doesn’t scream contender depth to me.

    I am not sure about the bottom six being an improvement with Horcoff gone, but I still think the weakest part of the roster lies down the middle. No depth and we are guessing who the 4th center is going to be. On top of that, when will Nuge be back ? Anywhere from October 1 to early November.

    It is a card MacT is holding. He knows the estimated return date, but you just never know how the shoulder will respond to hitting and movement required for hockey. On top of that, if Nuge misses training camp, he is behind everyone else for being ready for the season.

  23. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Lodger!!!

    Great album. I picked it up at Circus Records for $2 just last month!

    http://circusbooksandmusic.com

    Red Sails is my fav:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4rx_uCM5f00

  24. Brackenburied says:

    I remember Regehr for two things: breaking both his legs (near Warman, SK I think) and always, always pounding Hemsky. I gained a lot of respect for both players as a result.
    Hemsky retires an Oiler.

  25. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Woodguy:
    Romulus Apotheosis,

    He should be making bank right now and free-wheeling in a team’s top 6.

    For a guy who has put up 56pts in the last 107 gp, cashing $5MM is ok.

    I don’t think that his production in the last two years are what he’ll do going forward (should improve, especially in a top 6 role on a different team), but sports is the ultimate what-have-you-done-for-me-lately.

    Not the $$$ the term. He could have gotten longer term at a pretty high clip (maybe a shade shy of 5M)

    That would have set him up for some time to come.

  26. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Bruce McCurdy:
    Eakins has 7 skill guys, 8 if you count Jones.

    I’ve defended Jones a time or two in this space, but no way do I consider him a “skill guy”. A depth player with a nose for the net is as far as I’ll go. Long, long way behind the 7 actual skill guys. He’s a versatile guy who can fill in on occasion, but in general the further down the line-up he plays the better off Oilers are.

    Lowetide:
    I like Jones far more on a soft minutes skill line. He can score goals

    justDOit:
    Eakins has 7 skill guys, 8 if you count Jones…

    I’m imagining Eakins reading that this morning and choking on his coffee.

    This harkens back to a comment of mine on the Jones’ thread:

    http://lowetide.ca/blog/2013/07/re-13-14-ryan-jones-across-the-universe.html/comment-page-1#comment-244502

    There are some players that really expose the problematic language we use to talk about players.

  27. commonfan14 says:

    It’s the only plan to have I guess, but counting on Hemsky to serve as a top-6 replacement in case of injury to other players seems pretty shakey.

    A world where other people go down around him and Hemsky is the rock left standing would be a strange one indeed.

    And on ideas about him returing to form a bit this year, I’ll just offer that he’s only a year younger than Nick Schultz, who everyone seems to think is on the other side of the mountain due to his odometer even though he’s had zero significant injuries along the way. Hemmer has a lot fewer miles on him, but only because he’s had a bunch of prolonged stints on the IR.

    It’s possible he’s now legitimately a 3rd liner who you write into the line-up with pencil every year and hope to get the occasional burst of offense from when he’s healthy. Still a nice piece for the team to have if he’s willing to be paid like that.

    I kind of hope that’s the case in a way, because it’s hard to see another scenario where he stays past this year.

  28. rickithebear says:

    Jones: top 10 PK winger!
    That is not skill?
    He sky in his post lockout hey day was a .55 even ppg.
    He is now .35
    He had a dip in his .42 PP ppg the last 2years.
    Last year he was our best PP forward and returned to what he was good @.
    The dump and chase system does not cater to his possession style.
    He sky was a +ve GD player by out scoring the GA.
    This coach should take our team back the built in 2.60 to 1 shooting rate.
    Maybe we see a major bump in his Even ppg rate.

    He has averaged 67 games @ his worst is 23 even points.
    67 games @ what I would expect under this system is 30 points.
    Every 2 games above 67 games is an extra point.

    I hope for a return to form and keeping him at the trade deadline for our playoff run.

    I just know a break even hemsky with his worst numbers is better than, pettrell, Belanger, harti, brown, jones, maybe eager.

    I will give him the chance to generate like he did.

    Even though are best forward pairs are:
    Hall-Yak
    eager-Gagner
    Smyth-Gagner
    Smyth-Eberle
    Eager-Jones

  29. stevezie says:

    commonfan14: It’s the only plan to have I guess, but counting on Hemsky to serve as a top-6 replacement in case of injury to other players seems pretty shakey.

    Not really. You’re not counting on him to be durable, you’re just counting on him to to be hurt at the same time as Eberle and Yakupov. Even with his history this seems reasonable.

  30. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    “I’ve got my guess. I also looked it up!”

    Another winner from Connor.

  31. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    commonfan14: And on ideas about him returing to form a bit this year, I’ll just offer that he’s only a year younger than Nick Schultz, who everyone seems to think is on the other side of the mountain due to his odometer even though he’s had zero significant injuries along the way. Hemmer has a lot fewer miles on him, but only because he’s had a bunch of prolonged stints on the IR.

    I think the idea is that the collapse in play is quicker for defensive D than anyone else. These are guys that are lucky to make the show for a considerable amount of time to start with.

  32. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: I think the idea is that the collapse in play is quicker for defensive D than anyone else. These are guys that are lucky to make the show for a considerable amount of time to start with.

    Stephane Robidas, Rob Scuderi, Francis Bouillon, Chris Phillips, Jan Hejda, Bryce Salvador, Scott Hannan, Mike Weaver, Henrik Tallinder and Mark Eaton all say hi.

  33. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Bruce McCurdy: Stephane Robidas, Rob Scuderi, Francis Bouillon, Chris Phillips, Jan Hejda, Bryce Salvador, Scott Hannan, Mike Weaver, Henrik Tallinder and Mark Eaton all say hi.

    Is the down-tick in Schultz’ play then, 1) an idiosyncratic event; 2) an illusion; 3) particular to his player type, but not to those you mention; 4) particular to his player type, but overstated

  34. FastOil says:

    Why does the discussion around RNH being ready sooner rather than later make me uncomfortable?

    Man I hope they don’t hurt the kid because they aren’t able to figure out how to get what they need the most. Give him until he is fully, completely recovered before asking him to do any “heavy lifting”.

  35. Gret99zky says:

    With Hemsky gone to whom will the fans yell, “Shoooooooot!”?

  36. justDOit says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: Is the down-tick in Schultz’ play then, 1) an idiosyncratic event; 2) an illusion; 3) particular to his player type, but not to those you mention; 4) particular to his player type, but overstated

    Or could it be the Colin Fraser Effect?

  37. regwald says:

    FastOil:
    Why does the discussion around RNH being ready sooner rather than later make me uncomfortable?

    Man I hope they don’t hurt the kid because they aren’t able to figure out how to get what they need the most. Give him until he is fully, completely recovered before asking him to do any “heavy lifting”.

    I think someone on the blog said Stauffer was hinting that he is ahead of schedule in his rehab or maybe even Nuge said it in an interview.

    I agree, no need to rush him.

  38. OilClog says:

    Eakins has 7 skill guys, 8 if you count Jones.

    Could we scratch out Jones, say.. Eakins has 7 skill guys, 8 if you count Rajala

  39. bookje says:

    Re RNH – in my day we would just tape that thing up and get out there!

  40. Melman says:

    Romulus Apotheosis,

    5) coaching system

  41. jake70 says:

    Gret99zky:
    With Hemsky gone to whom will the fans yell, “Shoooooooot!”?

    Thats’s easy, all the 1st unit PP guys, when they go 2 minutes on a 5 on 3 with no shots – Oiler hockey recent years – pass it into net. Actually I think this is going to change with Eakins, he won’t put up with that nonsense. Nail “shoot first, ask questions later” Yakupov will improve this as well.

  42. "Steve Smith" says:

    Melman,

    He was lousy his last (partial) season in Minnesota too.

  43. Woodguy says:

    Bruce McCurdy: Stephane Robidas, Rob Scuderi, Francis Bouillon, Chris Phillips, Jan Hejda, Bryce Salvador, Scott Hannan, Mike Weaver, Henrik Tallinder and Mark Eaton all say hi.

    Most of those guys’ play dived down hard when it did start to fall.

    Hannan and Hejda are shadows of who they were.

    I think its more gp that pure years, and D years are much harder than F years on the body.

    Shultz has 811 games, Hemsky 597.

    Yes, Phillips and other get to 1000 games, but there is a reason they give a guy a solid silver stick for doing so….its pretty damn rare.

  44. regwald says:

    Here’s the players on the cusp of getting to 1000 games. I think Kaberle is done unless someone gives him a training camp tryout.

    Tomáš Kaberle, D, 984
    Martin St. Louis, F, 979
    Michal Handzuš, F, 950
    Robyn Regehr, D, 943
    Scott Gomez, F, 941
    Scott Hannan, D, 941
    Henrik Sedin, F, 940
    Matt Cooke, F, 935
    Brad Stuart, D, 924
    Alex Tanguay, F, 922
    Jamal Mayers, F, 915
    Cory Sarich, D, 915
    Jeff Halpern, F, 907
    Daniel Sedin, F, 906
    Brad Richards, F, 900

  45. commonfan14 says:

    Woodguy: I think its more gp that pure years, and D years are much harder than F years on the body.
    Shultz has 811 games, Hemsky 597.

    While I agree that D GPs would generally be tougher than F GPs, don’t you think Hemsky’s several major injuries and 597 games has probably taken a greater overall toll on his body than Schultz’s zero major injuries and 811 games?

    No way to know of course, just speculating here.

  46. commonfan14 says:

    Gret99zky: With Hemsky gone to whom will the fans yell, “Shoooooooot!”?

    Are criticisms of fans who do this still allowed on a blog that puts a lot of stock in Corsi?

  47. Zipdot says:

    Omark = Hemsky, right?

    I think we know what needs doin’.

  48. uni says:

    For shits and giggles I’d love to have them run a line with Rajala and Omark as the wingers against other 4th lines for 10 minutes a night.

  49. regwald says:

    uni:
    For shits and giggles I’d love to have them run a line with Rajala and Omark as the wingers against other 4th lines for 10 minutes a night.

    And with Arcobello as the 4th line center ? How’s that for pushing skill ?

  50. Marc says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: Not the $$$ the term. He could have gotten longer term at a pretty high clip (maybe a shade shy of 5M)

    That would have set him up for some time to come.

    I’m not so sure. The rest of the league seems to value Hemsky a lot less highly than the Oilers do.

    They shopped him at the deadline in 2011 and according to media reports were ‘asking for the moon’. They didn’t get it.

    They shopped him again the following year and ended up resigning him rather than accepting any of the offers they were getting.

    And they haven’t had any love so far this season.

    The cold hard fact is that Hemsky hasn’t had a good season since 2008/9. In two of the seasons since then he scored at an elite rate but played less than half a season. In the two where he stayed relatively healthy his scoring was down to mediocre levels. In none of the past four seasons did he represent good value for money for the Oilers.

    The only thing he’s has going for him is reasonably good advanced stats (though they have been declining) – and teams don’t seem to pay extra for good advanced stats if the counting numbers aren’t there.

    I don’t think Hemsky would have got money or term if he’d gone UFA a year ago and I think MacT is discovering what his predecessor had previously discovered – there just isn’t much demand for Hemsky at $5M per.

  51. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Woodguy: I think its more gp that pure years, and D years are much harder than F years on the body.

    Frank Beauchemin, Eric Brewer, Brooks Orpik, Johnny Oduya, Barret Jackman, Dennis Seidenberg, Kevin Bieksa, and Paul Martin also say hi. All are older than Schultz the “Elder”.

    Certainly there is value for veteran stay-at-home defenders, and some guys stick it out deep into their 30s. Obviously each case is unique, and some guys crash sooner than others. Schultz may be on that list, or it may be he’s one of those guys that’s a pain in the ass when he’s on the other team, but when he’s on yours you tend to see the times he gets beat.

    I do know the suggestion that he’s had no major injury is wrong. He had to shut it down before the end of 2010-11 season due to post-concussion syndrome.

  52. Lowetide says:

    You get rid of that damn dog whistle and good things happen for N Schultz.

  53. Woodguy says:

    Bruce McCurdy: Frank Beauchemin, Eric Brewer, Brooks Orpik, Johnny Oduya, Barret Jackman, Dennis Seidenberg, Kevin Bieksa, and Paul Martin also say hi. All are older than Schultz the “Elder”.

    Certainly there is value for veteran stay-at-home defenders, and some guys stick it out deep into their 30s. Obviously each case is unique, and some guys crash sooner than others. Schultz may be on that list, or it may be he’s one of those guys that’s a pain in the ass when he’s on the other team, but when he’s on yours you tend to see the times he gets beat.

    I do know the suggestion that he’s had no major injury is wrong. He had to shut it down before the end of 2010-11 season due to post-concussion syndrome.

    Bruce I shouldn’t have to lecture you about sample sizes.

    Yes, there is a handful of Dmen who play north of 800 games and well into their mid-30′s.

    There are scores more who don’t.

  54. "Steve Smith" says:

    regwald,

    I was just thinking about that today. If our fourth line’s going to be a black hole, let it be an exciting, highly skilled (but ultimately ineffective) black hole. More fun to watch, and easier to cheer for.

  55. Hammers says:

    Bruce McCurdy: Frank Beauchemin, Eric Brewer, Brooks Orpik, Johnny Oduya, Barret Jackman, Dennis Seidenberg, Kevin Bieksa, and Paul Martin also say hi. All are older than Schultz the “Elder”.

    Certainly there is value for veteran stay-at-home defenders, and some guys stick it out deep into their 30s. Obviously each case is unique, and some guys crash sooner than others. Schultz may be on that list, or it may be he’s one of those guys that’s a pain in the ass when he’s on the other team, but when he’s on yours you tend to see the times he gets beat.

    I do know the suggestion that he’s had no major injury is wrong. He had to shut it down before the end of 2010-11 season due to post-concussion syndrome.

    Also Minny knew what they where doing with that trade . We will be saying the same thing with Ference in 3 years

  56. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Marc,

    What I don’t know about contracts and their value is legion.

    But IIRC many smart people (albeit all Oiler fans at heart) said at the time Hemsky could have gotten more on the UFA market if he waited.

    A couple of thoughts

    –The UFA market has its own rules. Just because a player doesn’t get chased around the school yard by all the girls at the trade deadline, doesn’t necessarily mean they don’t want him during the Summer.

    –The cap was still high then

    –lots of UFA deal massage things with $$ and term to even out cap issues.

    I don’t think it is terribly unreasonable to suggest Hemsky might have gotten a long term deal somewhere in the AAV of 4.5-5M.

  57. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Hammers: Also Minny knew what they where doing with that trade . We will be saying the same thing with Ference in 3 years

    I think the fact that Gilbert is gone makes that trade questionable from their POV.

  58. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: I think the fact that Gilbert is gone makes that trade questionable from their POV.

    Gilbert is gone, but his cap hit echoes on.

  59. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Woodguy: Bruce I shouldn’t have to lecture you about sample sizes.

    Yes, there is a handful of Dmen who play north of 800 games and well into their mid-30′s.

    There are scores more who don’t.

    Can you document that there are fewer stay-at-home d-men that last into their mid-to-late 30s than players of other positions? I believe that was the original point that I was mocking (in my polite way). There is value in experienced d-men, every team wants a couple.

    Which is not to contradict that Nick Schultz might be near the end of the line. Maybe he is one of your “scores”.

  60. MrDooman says:

    How has nobody mentioned that LT asked twice, “who will he play with?”.

    Secondly, as others have said. With Gilbert still looking for a home after having been bought out. I don’t see how anyone can reasonably argue that maybe Dithers knew something we don’t. Schultz Sr is still employed after all.

  61. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Bruce McCurdy: Can you document that there are fewer stay-at-home d-men that last into their mid-to-late 30s than players of other positions? I believe that was the original point that I was mocking (in my polite way). There is value in experienced d-men, every team wants a couple.

    Which is not to contradict that Nick Schultz might be near the end of the line. Maybe he is one of your “scores”.

    This is one bit of received wisdom I’d be happy to have overturned.

    Thinking about it more, my sense is that “offensive defensemen” struggle to march up the GPs ladder just as much as “defensive defensemen” but for other reasons.

    Maybe all the received wisdom is saying is that “good, but not very good or exceptional” players struggle to stay relevant in game season over season.

    At any rate, should we accept the challenge we’d need to define what counts as a “defensive defenseman” and so on with all the other types of players/positions and then try to aggregate some data on career GPs with an eye to when their play noticeably declined.

  62. "Steve Smith" says:

    MrDooman:
    How has nobody mentioned that LT asked twice, “who will he play with?”.

    Same reason that nobody’s pointed out that it’s self-evident that a chicken’s (or any other creature’s) reasons for crossing a road would include getting to the other side.

  63. Bruce McCurdy says:

    MrDooman: Schultz Sr is still employed after all.

    Well, he’s still employed by the team that once employed Gilbert on its top pairing, so I’m not sure exactly what any of that tells us. :/

  64. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    “Steve Smith”: Same reason that nobody’s pointed out that it’s self-evident that a chicken’s (or any other creature’s) reasons for crossing a road would include getting to the other side.

    I’m pretty sure the correct answer is to kill his father.

  65. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: Thinking about it more, my sense is that “offensive defensemen” struggle to march up the GPs ladder just as much as “defensive defensemen” but for other reasons.

    There is certainly a group of older defencemen who remain dangerous offensive threats right into their 30s — guys like Dan Boyle, Sergei Gonchar, Kimmo Timonen, Brian Campbell, Andrei Markov & Zdeno Chara to name a few. However, for the most part those guys would also fit in your “very good or exceptional” category.

    Romulus Apotheosis: At any rate, should we accept the challenge we’d need to define what counts as a “defensive defenseman” and so on with all the other types of players/positions and then try to aggregate some data on career GPs with an eye to when their play noticeably declined.

    It’s an interesting question, and I’m sure I don’t know the answer, other than my usual obstinance about “received wisdom” that compels me to challenge it. A lot of these aging d-men were never great at any point, but a lot of them seem to have the knack for hanging on for quite a while, by reputation only in some cases it would seem. For all the guys I named there were bunches more like Hal Gill, Andrew Ference, Greg Zanon and Robyn Regehr and that I didn’t. Plus a bunch of guys that were once offensive guys but now get by on experience and guile, like Derek Morris & Toni Lydman & Michal Rozsival, which could go in one group or the other, or maybe a category all they’re own. One would have to be diligent in defining the various categories before undertaking a study. Definitely food for thought, though.

  66. DeadmanWaking says:

    Leeloo lies low watching Hemmer dangle over her ten little unfocused piggies while awaiting a plate of Jamie Oliver’s Perfect Pork Loin Roast with Crackling. She’s repeating to herself “Stefan Dallas multi-pass deke tuck” while rewinding the clip over and over.

    Cornelius is in the kitchen explaining to David–who’s slaving over the heat and not really hearing all the words–”you’ve got this lovely white fat, you just score that all over … that’s going to really look after your pork guaranteeing juiciness … skim off the fat and if a little bit of juice comes with it, it doesn’t matter because when that’s firmed up … more flavour potential than any hock tube on the planet”.

    Poor fellow, his mind is addled. All he can hear from the living room is “Moving in by himself … Ales Hemsky … scores!” and he’s thinking “shove over Leeloo, I want to watch, too”.

  67. DeadmanWaking says:

    Fooey. The last line clicked as I was pouring myself yesterday’s wine dregs.

    “shove over Leeloo, stop hogging the divan, I want to watch, too”

    This is the opposite of hogging which is more like this.

    And what do you know, that’s actually her birthday suit.

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