RE 13-14 ANDREW FERENCE: JOE THE LION

The Edmonton Oilers needed a veteran defenseman and a guy who could deliver some smashmouth, and they found it in hometown boy Andrew Ference. Question: where does he play?

RE 13-14: 76, 3-14-17

  1. Where did he play in Boston? Ference played the 4th toughest qual comp and 4th toughest zone start (this is all in the Sledgehammer).
  2. And had a crapball CorsiRel! Well, he was in the pink, but he’s innocent with an explanation.
  3. Oh boy. Look, this is easily understood if you keep an open mind.
  4. Would Don Cherry understand it? If he approached it with an open mind.
  5. So, that’s a no. Well, we don’t have to remain in the 1960′s with Luca Brasi and cfc’s. We can use our brains.
  6. This will be fun. Look, the Vollman shows us CorsiRel, rel being relative to the rest of the team. The Bruins have an impact player of insane ability, and he skews the rel. It’s like if we were looking at Orr in 1974, or Potvin in 1980 or any other elite player in the game. He ruins the rel.
  7. Like ORR? Well, you get the point. Chara is a really good player, and if you’re doing CorsiRel for the Bruins he’s going to factor more than an average defenseman.
  8. How do you know that Ference wasn’t being helped by Chara? Because they didn’t play together, and when they did there was no music. Ference played only 51 minutes with Chara, and incredibly they didn’t perform well together (their CF% was 43.6% together, both were well over 50% apart).
  9. Who did he play with? By EV minutes: Adam McQuaid (268 minutes, 51.9% CF together); Johnny Boychuk (187 minutes, 48.7% together but both were well over 50% apart); Seidenberg (142 minutes, over 50% CF together); Dougie Hamilton (61% together).
  10. Hold on a second here. What did the Chara-Ference pairing do together? In 51 minutes, they were 43.6% chances for.
  11. So, when Chara and Ference were on the ice, the Bruins were the Oilers? Yes, basically.
  12. Ference is useless. This is worse than the Khabibulin trade! Where’s the vodka? Not close to true, and here’s where we have to use as much of our brain as possible–WITHOUT each other they were both excellent. Ference was 52.8% in 735 minutes.
  13. What was Chara? 90%? No, 56.6% in 850 minutes. And of course those were tougher minutes and tougher zone starts.
  14. Well, Chara’s playing the toughs and Ference doesn’t and Ference is a pink balloon. Pink balloon bad. It’s varying degrees and remember we’re talking CorsiRel here. Ference is a good defenseman without Chara and is effective as indicated in the Vollman. He was moved around a lot, but in the regular season overall and certainly in the post-season Ference was an effective player who the coach counted on in a top 4 role.
  15. Says who? Well, Tyler Dellow looked at this and came to a solid conclusion on Ference. Dellow: “it’s probably most reasonable to characterize Ference as being a second pairing defender. When the games mattered most, he was the guy Claude Julien kept putting out there.”
  16. Oh, that’s different. WELCOME Andrew Ference! What? What? What about the ‘he’s no good’ and the ‘pink balloon bad’?
  17. Well, Dellow’s got a good eye for this stuff. He’s good. That Dellow. BIG BRAIN. This is crazy! What about the things we talked about above? What about the CF% and the Sledgehammer?
  18. Yeah, honestly I don’t even know why you call it a Sledgehammer. Looks like a square. Got any bacon? Go to hell.
  19. Oh come on. Who will he play with? My bet is one of Petry or J Schultz, although the Russians are interesting too. This is going to be a wild training camp and pre-season, hope Ference has a healthy year. If I had to pick just one, it would be Schultz the younger–Ference was very good with Dougie Hamilton.
  20. Why this song? You’re kidding right? Joe the Lion, made of iron.
  21. The contract is too long. Yes, agreed. If they get two good, healthy years I’d be pleased.
  22. Tell me why I should like this contract and this player. You should like it because  he’s an established NHL player with a history of success. The last time an Oilers GM hit the market in search of a top 4D solution via free agency he found Cam Barker. Ference can help, starting day one and I do believe he could be a big help in the mentor role. That’s secondary, though. The key is Andrew Ference–in a top 4D role–makes this team better. He’s a better actual player than Nick Schultz, a better actual player than Ryan Whitney.

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39 Responses to "RE 13-14 ANDREW FERENCE: JOE THE LION"

  1. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    I don’t know how you can walk away from the lush studio pleasure of the Bowie, Eno, Fripp and Visconti collaboration. It boggles.

    ——–
    With Ference I think it is important to sort out several things.

    1. He’s a good player. An NHL player. This isn’t really in doubt.
    2. The team and the fans should be happy to have him.
    3. The context created by the Oilers’ past is what sours the signing for some:

    3a. We’re used to signing players when they are starting to over-ripen.
    3b. We’re used to seeing long-tooth players given too much term.
    3c. We’re used to seeing good players paid too much and pushed too far up the depth chart.
    3d. We really wanted something a little closer to the top 2 end of the top 4.

    I think it’s contexts like this that create the disjunction between a player’s reality as a good player and a fan’s perception that the player is part of the problem.

  2. Clarkenstein says:

    I’m afraid Ference might be the latest in a long line of “support” players on very good teams that come here with huge expectations from locals. If he played tough minutes in Boston don’t forget he was likely on the ice with other defensive minded players and a helluva goalie just in case somebody screwed up. As always, it will take 25 games just to see what type of Oiler Ference will be. Until then let’s not get too giddy.

  3. Lowetide says:

    Rom: went ten rounds deciding, but wanted to get a little outside the enormous Young Americans through Station to Station through Low through Heroes run in this series.

    You’re spot on in regard to perception imo. I think people may not realize he’s a player type who’ll own Edmonton by Christmas.

  4. Ducey says:

    Clarkenstein,

    Ference won’t have to worry about support from the home crowd. He is a hometown boy who will dish out some big hits, lay the lumber and generally lay it on the line. Staios/ Jason Smith/Huddy/Fogolin – even Theo. The hometown fans like their Dmen blue collar and tough. They don’t worry too much about advanced stats or the occasional blown coverage if they see effort.

    Its the “fancy” players like Gilbert/ Pitkanen who get run out of town.

    I worry Petry might be the next guy targeted. He has great talent and tools but the his unwillingness to bring some physical play every game turns the average fan off.

  5. Woodguy says:

    Interesting post at Stanley Cup of Chowder about Ference: http://www.stanleycupofchowder.com/2013/6/26/4467720/thanks-andrew-ference

  6. bookje says:

    I predict in three years Andrew Ference will Be booed out of town by ‘fans’, leaving with a bitterness towards his hometown. This will make LT and the rest of us very sad.

    Or the Oilers will be the Stanely Cup champs!

  7. Lloyd B. says:

    I like this signing alot for a number of reasons. First, he has won a Stanley cup and came close again this past season. He knows the effort and committment required to win and he will show that in spades to all the young guys. Every shift, every game. On the ice and off. Second, you will notice in the photo that A on his jersey. This on a team that has any number of leaders. Bringing in a proven leader on a winning team. Gold. Third. With all the young buck defencemen coming up he will provide a very stable, dependable partner for them to cover up their gaffes. This should also accelerate their development. Fourth. We pretty much traded Whitney for Ference. Clear upgrade. Is the term a little long… sure. Probably by a year, but that is likely the cost to attract a Stanley cup winning veteran to come to a cellar dwellar. I for one would like to see a couple more of this type of player signed. Say a 3LW and a 4C from LA or CHI with the same proven winning pedigree.

  8. bookje says:

    After reading WG’s link, I’ve changed my mind about the fans turning against Ferrence. I am just trying to figure out who the fans will turn their irrational need for a goat towards now that Horcoff is gone.

  9. G Money says:

    Woodguy:
    Interesting post at Stanley Cup of Chowder about Ference: http://www.stanleycupofchowder.com/2013/6/26/4467720/thanks-andrew-ference

    Great read. I was already convinced that this was a good signing – an experienced smashmouth old school defenceman was exactly what we needed to complement the sick skill level of the top players on the Oilers. Not big, but mean. Not great defensively, but solid. Not dirty, but doesn’t back down from anyone.

    That thread is practically a shrine to a Ference. The question is – how do we capture this in the fancy stats!?!?!

  10. Lowetide says:

    bookje:
    After reading WG’s link, I’ve changed my mind about the fans turning against Ferrence.I am just trying to figure out who the fans will turn theirirrational need for a goat towards now that Horcoff is gone.

    Gagner.

  11. Woodguy says:

    bookje:
    After reading WG’s link, I’ve changed my mind about the fans turning against Ferrence.I am just trying to figure out who the fans will turn theirirrational need for a goat towards now that Horcoff is gone.

    Gagner.

  12. Woodguy says:

    Lowetide: Gagner.

    Your post was not up when I did mine.

    Honest.

  13. Lowetide says:

    Woodguy: Your post was not up when I did mine.

    Honest.

    I believe you.

  14. tcho says:

    bookje,

    I’m going to go against the grain here and predict Eberle. It’s not his fault that the Oilers offered him too rich of a contract, but that’s never stopped Oilers fans before.

  15. Clarkenstein says:

    Lowetide: Gagner.

    Lowetide,

    Fans have no problem with Gagner. Front runner would be Hemsky imo.

  16. Lowetide says:

    Clarkenstein: Lowetide,

    Fans have no problem with Gagner. Front runner would be Hemsky imo.

    I just don’t think Hemsky will be here. If he is, agreed.

  17. Hammers says:

    Not much of a blessing when you say his better than Barker & Whitney . I feel he could be a perfect mentor to Justin moreso than Petry . Petry has a defensive game allready while i’m not sure about J.Schultz . Our problem is that there no more than a 2nd pairing and in fact no matter who you put together they at best will be 2nd pairings . Petry / Smid at best 2nd same if its Petry / Belov 2nd . Maybe Eakins can spin his web to end up with 3 pairings that all have 2nd pairing potential . The makings maybe there and in time Klef & Justin maybe our best pairing .

  18. Jordan says:

    bookje:
    After reading WG’s link, I’ve changed my mind about the fans turning against Ferrence.I am just trying to figure out who the fans will turn theirirrational need for a goat towards now that Horcoff is gone.

    Clarkenstein,

    Lowetide,

    Woodguy,

    Hemsky will be gone at the deadline, for a grit/skill combo that better fits 3rd line with Gordon, and if he scores some possibly a pick.

    Gagner’s been given the vote by CMac, and I think that fans will respect that and love him putting up points on a softer scoring line.

    Petry’s not making enough money to be a candidate this year, but if he gets the 4M+ everyone is expecting next year, then he’ll be in line. I expect RNH will be there within a year or two once he gets paid, because he’s too fancy. Compared to Gagner…at least Gagner won’t be paid as much, and he’ll go fight people like beauchmin just cause. Guy’s got balls big as the golden gate bridge, and the blue collars respect that in these parts.

    My darkhorse for the Shawn Horcoff Fans hate you but you’re a great player award is Jultz. His defensive lapses were bad last year, and I expect them to be bad this year too while he matures in the best league in the world. It’s a hard place to learn to play D. Just like Lubo & Pitkannen before him – these fans don’t appreciate skilled d.

  19. Woodguy says:

    Jordan: Clarkenstein,

    Lowetide,

    Woodguy,

    Hemsky will be gone at the deadline, for a grit/skill combo that better fits 3rd line with Gordon, and if he scores some possibly a pick.

    Gagner’s been given the vote by CMac, and I think that fans will respect that and love him putting up points on a softer scoring line.

    Petry’s not making enough money to be a candidate this year, but if he gets the 4M+ everyone is expecting next year, then he’ll be in line.I expect RNH will be there within a year or two once he gets paid, because he’s too fancy.Compared to Gagner…at least Gagner won’t be paid as much, and he’ll go fight people like beauchmin just cause.Guy’s got balls big as the golden gate bridge, and the blue collars respect that in these parts.

    My darkhorse for the Shawn Horcoff Fans hate you but you’re a great player award is Jultz.His defensive lapses were bad last year, and I expect them to be bad this year too while he matures in the best league in the world.It’s a hard place to learn to play D.Just like Lubo & Pitkannen before him – these fans don’t appreciate skilled d.

    If the Oilers have no injuries among the top 6 when RNH gets back, that’s probably when the Hemsky sweepstakes start.

    I think he opens the season with them, but is gone by Christmas.

  20. Clarkenstein says:

    There are so few trades anymore during the season that if you don’t deal a player at the draft you are likely waiting until the deadline for teams like PHI to overpay. You just don’t get enough in return for a player at any other time unless it’s a salary dump and you don’t give a shit.
    When it comes specifically to Hemsky who’s going to offer a ton for an injury prone underachiever? He had some decent numbers but that was a while ago. Throw in the fact that he’s 30 years old today and an RFA at years end and…in the meantime the fans will have little patience with him.

  21. Hammers says:

    Hehsky will be gone as soon as McT likes the return , whatever it is. Hell he could be here untill the deadline and if he plays well in the Olympics who knows what may happen .

  22. Jordan says:

    Question – I know there’s a 2 week Olympics break in February in the NHL calendar. When is the Trade Deadline? Isn’t it usually around then too?

    Will teams be able to trade after the Olympics, or will they need to trade players beforehand?

    Haven’t been able to confirm that online. Anyone know or have a link or something?

  23. speeds says:

    I understand that Corsi Rel might be affected by the other players around Ference.

    But what’s the the thinking on why Ference had the worst Corsi ON for BOS last year, and 2nd worst 2 years ago, while not playing particularly difficult minutes? He doesn’t seem to have rough ZS’s.

    Did he play a disproportionally low number of minutes with from the F’s that drive Corsi for BOS, relative to the other D?

  24. Lowetide says:

    speeds:
    I understand that Corsi Rel might be affected by the other players around Ference.

    But what’s the the thinking on why Ference had the worst Corsi ON for BOS last year, and 2nd worst 2 years ago, while not playing particularly difficult minutes?He doesn’t seem to have rough ZS’s.

    Did he play a disproportionally low number of minutes with from the F’s that drive Corsi for BOS, relative to the other D?

    I looked at it, and he did play with Gregory Campbell more than any other forward this season, but honestly it didn’t look like he had an extremely poor group to work with in Boston. Part of the problem is the Bruins have way fewer shitty players.

  25. wheatnoil says:

    Lowetide: Part of the problem is the Bruins have way fewer shitty players.

    I dream of the day the Oilers have this problem.

  26. wheatnoil says:

    I think the problem is that corsi is a less than ideal statistic for determining the effectiveness of a defenseman. Woodguy linked to a post about SDI the other day, which appears to be superior, but is also lacking in some respects. As far as SDI goes, over the last six years, Ference has been sub-par defensively on average, but has had an enormous amount of variability, being in the bottom 3% of the league one year and being well above average another, making predictability for the next 1 to 2 years decidedly difficult.

    So the possession metrics seem to come out ‘funny’ on Andrew Ference and I have a hard time making sense of them. Thus, in my opinion and with my admittedly amateur-ish stats knowledge, I conclude that the stats don’t give me a clear picture on Ference.

    Thus, I have confused stats on one hand and on the other I have Claude Julien (who I think is a pretty solid coach), who had some strong D options in Boston and leaned on Ference as a clear top 4 option in the playoffs. That means something, especially without solid evidence to go against it.

    I don’t know what to make of Ference intellectually, but emotionally I like him in an Oilers uniform. The salary is fine but the term is 1 – 2 years too long. However, it’s not a 35+ contract, so if Ference completely loses it or gets injured and decides to retire, the cap hit comes off the books. Either way, it’s a problem 2 years down the road. Next year, he’s just what the Oilers need. There are worse long-term problems the Oilers could have had (*cough* Clarkson).

  27. G Money says:

    speeds: But what’s the the thinking on why Ference had the worst Corsi ON for BOS last year, and 2nd worst 2 years ago, while not playing particularly difficult minutes? He doesn’t seem to have rough ZS’s.

    This has been a point of much discussion ever since the Ference signing.

    As VOR noted in his fairly detailed analysis some time back, Corsi for defensemen (especially defensive defensemen) tells you very little about that defenseman. The working theory is that a. defenseman have little influence on Corsi For, so the overall CorsiOn statistic isn’t overly valid, and b. Corsi can’t capture the effect of ‘shots not taken as a result of that defenseman’ – in other words, we can see the negative effects captured, but no way to show the non-negative effects if the player hadn’t been there, if you see what I mean.

    A simple way to look at this is to look at Corsi overall for defensemen and see if it makes sense i.e is there some correlation with quality.

    Using Corsi (I used a 25 game minimum filter) from last season, Phaneuf, Regher, Gunnarson, Sekera, Smid, and Orpik are all terrible defensemen (much worse than Ference).

    On the other hand, Muzzin, Tallinder, Wiercioch, Roszival, Martinze, Drewiske, and Marc-Andre Bergeron are the best in the league.

    Meanwhile, Weber, Suter, and OEL wallow in mediocrity.

    I believe in the overall value of the fancy stats (as anyone who’s read my posts can attest).

    But when stats produce silly real-world results – the stats are almost always wrong.

    I am not worried about Ference’s Corsi!

  28. speeds says:

    wheatnoil:
    Thus, I have confused stats on one hand and on the other I have Claude Julien (who I think is a pretty solid coach), who had some strong D options in Boston and leaned on Ference as a clear top 4 option in the playoffs. That means something, especially without solid evidence to go against it.

    It means Julien thought he was one of his 4 best options, it doesn’t necessarily mean he’s what people consider a “legit top 4 D”.

    It’s very difficult to ice a “complete” team in the current salary cap environment. Is it that hard to believe a team could have a sub-par group of 3-7D and still makes the Stanley Cup finals if they have a great top 9F, a great goalie, and a great #1 D?

  29. G Money says:

    speeds: It means Julien thought he was one of his 4 best options, it doesn’t necessarily mean he’s what people consider a “legit top 4 D”.

    It’s very difficult to ice a “complete” team in the current salary cap environment.Is it that hard to believe a team could have a sub-par group of 3-7D and still makes the Stanley Cup finals if they have a great top 9F, a great goalie, and a great #1 D?

    If you really want to insist on using Corsi as your metric for the D, you should also recognize then that by that measure, not only is Ference the worst defenseman on the Bruins (meaning that his icetime should have been tenth, not fourth), but Chara himself is NOT first but fifth on the list (beaten by such luminaries as Aaron Johnson, Redden, Bartkowski, and Hamilton).

    Broken record time – Corsi does not have much if any value for assessing defensemen. Corsi remains the number one criticism of Ference, and it is not a valid criticism.

  30. speeds says:

    G Money,

    People don’t generally use Corsi as a standalone stat as you use it – context is normally required to account for the role of a player. Sometimes we think we can explain unusual Corsi results through things like zone starts, quality of teammates/competition, and none of those things seem to apply in the case of Ference.

    I also have some question about how Corsi should be used for D relative to F, which is why I wrote “Did he play a disproportionally low number of minutes with from the F’s that drive Corsi for BOS, relative to the other D?” Although I changed that sentence a couple of times while writing the post, and mangled it. It should have read “Did he play a disproportionally low number of minutes with the F’s that drive Corsi for BOS, relative to the other D?”

  31. Numenius says:

    A good thing to keep in mind in all of this is how much Boston fans loved Ference. You don’t see negative comments about him, and the positive comments just gush (“God I’m gonna miss him so much”; “I will miss him so more than I will Seguin and Horton”). That’s an excellent sign in my books.

  32. wheatnoil says:

    speeds: It’s very difficult to ice a “complete” team in the current salary cap environment.Is it that hard to believe a team could have a sub-par group of 3-7D and still makes the Stanley Cup finals if they have a great top 9F, a great goalie, and a great #1 D?

    Entirely possible. The Chara effect is difficult to understate. Same thing with Pronger. Same thing with Lidstrom. Those guys screw up all analysis. They play half the damn game and seem to control every second of it. Hell, Chara’s only missed 6 games in the last FOUR years. Now THAT’S a guy you overpay for in free agency!

    speeds:
    “Did he play a disproportionally low number of minutes with the F’s that drive Corsi for BOS, relative to the other D?”

    Boston’s biggest possession killers were the trio of Bergeron, Seguin, and Marchand, with corsiONs and corsiRELs well clear of the rest. LT mentioned above that his most common forward was Gregory Campbell who has the lowest corsiREL and second lowest corsiON among forwards (min 20 games). His top five forwards were Campbell, Krejci, Lucic, Peverly, and Paille. Out of 13 forwards (min 20 games played), those five are 13th, 8th, 4th, 9th, and 10th in corsiREL.

    It’s not until you get to 6th on the list that you get to the one of the Corsi Killer Trio. So that may be one reason for a low corsiON. He didn’t play with the best forwards. He actually played almost the same amount of time with Marchand and Bergeron as he did with Kelly and Thornton (who, along with Campbell, are at the bottom of the corsi barrel.)

  33. G Money says:

    speeds,

    I think you can use the ZS and QOC and related measures as modifying factors for assessing forwards. I am a huge fan of the Vollman charts, as I think they provide a more complete fancy stats picture than almost any other singular tool.

    It still breaks down for defenders though, which is why you get nonsensical results like Weber & Suter being below-average defensemen (by Corsi).

    I tried to run some numbers a while back to try and assess exactly your question about forward matching, which is an extremely relevant question to ask, but it is simply too much number crunching for a hobbyist, even one with a math stats background!

    Going anything beyond simple WOWY, you end up with multi-dimensional tables that are virtually impossible (for me) to analyze or visualize, and even if you could, Corsi is so ridiculously correlative between players that I’m not sure there is any value to the numbers – and those numbers also become smaller and smaller in sample size the more you dig!

    At some point, you do have to recognize that fancy stats are just a way to try and provide an enhanced view to a player beyond boxcars and seen-him-good – and like all stats, sometimes they help and sometimes they don’t.

    Whatever metric you choose to use, you still have to account for the fact that this guy by eye is a battler, the fans and his teammates love him, his coach trusts him, and his team wins…

  34. wheatnoil says:

    Other Boston D’s top 5 forwards (with CorsiRel ranking):
    Seidenburg: Krejci, Seguin, Lucic, Horton, Bergeron (8th, 1st, 4th, 5th, 2nd)
    Boychuck: Krejci, Seguin, Lucic, Horton, Marchand (8th, 1st, 4th, 5th, 3rd)
    Chara: Seguin, Krejci, Marchand, Bergeron, Lucic (1st, 8th, 3rd, 2nd, 4th)
    Hamilton: Krejci, Seguin, Lucic, Horton, Marchand (8th, 1st, 4th, 5th, 3rd)
    McQuaid: Peverley, Krejci, Kelly, Campbell, Lucic (9th, 8th, 11th, 12th, 4th)

    This is hardly a thorough analysis and is far from conclusive, so I can only take it as a quick and dirty look. That said, based off this, only McQuaid’s top five forwards were as poor at possession as Ference’s (not surprisingly given Ference was his most common D-partner) and McQuaid has an almost identical corsiOn as Ference. Their corsiRel is a bit different, but that might be because McQuaid missed a bunch of games last year (only played 32 out of 48) and that would skew his on/off ice numbers compared to Ference.

    Edit: Should add that behindthenet shows that Ference had the second lowest quality of teammates, with only the aforementioned McQuaid lower. I should’ve checked that first… probably would’ve saved me some time.

  35. B S says:

    Ducey:
    Clarkenstein,

    Ference won’t have to worry about support from the home crowd.He is a hometown boy who will dish out some big hits, lay the lumber and generally lay it on the line.Staios/ Jason Smith/Huddy/Fogolin – even Theo.The hometown fans like their Dmen blue collar and tough.They don’t worry too much about advanced stats or the occasional blown coverage if they see effort.

    Its the “fancy” players like Gilbert/ Pitkanen who get run out of town.

    I worry Petry might be the next guy targeted.He has great talent and tools but the his unwillingness to bring some physical play every game turns the average fan off.

    Speaking of perception. 2nd on the Oilers in hits last season, 13th among defencemen in the NHL, ahead of any Boston Bruins. Look it up, then tell me he isn’t physical.

  36. Woodguy says:

    wheatnoil:
    Other Boston D’s top 5 forwards (with CorsiRel ranking):
    Seidenburg: Krejci, Seguin, Lucic, Horton, Bergeron (8th, 1st, 4th, 5th, 2nd)
    Boychuck: Krejci, Seguin, Lucic, Horton, Marchand (8th, 1st, 4th, 5th, 3rd)
    Chara: Seguin, Krejci, Marchand, Bergeron, Lucic (1st, 8th, 3rd, 2nd, 4th)
    Hamilton: Krejci, Seguin, Lucic, Horton, Marchand (8th, 1st, 4th, 5th, 3rd)
    McQuaid: Peverley, Krejci, Kelly, Campbell, Lucic (9th, 8th, 11th, 12th, 4th)

    This is hardly a thorough analysis and is far from conclusive, so I can only take it as a quick and dirty look. That said, based off this, only McQuaid’s top five forwards were as poor at possession as Ference’s (not surprisingly given Ference was his most common D-partner) and McQuaid has an almost identical corsiOn as Ference. Their corsiRel is a bit different, but that might be because McQuaid missed a bunch of games last year (only played 32 out of 48) and that would skew his on/off ice numbers compared to Ference.

    Edit: Should add that behindthenet shows that Ference had the second lowest quality of teammates, with only the aforementioned McQuaid lower. I should’ve checked that first… probably would’ve saved me some time.

    I’m pretty sure you nailed it here.

    Well done.

    All,

    The SDI thing that WNO is referring to can be read here:

    http://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/2013/7/29/4324054/sdi-v2-1-shut-down-index-2012-13-part-1
    http://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/2013/7/30/4570108/sdi-v2-1-shut-down-index-2012-13-part-2

    BUT, first read this:

    http://www.broadstreethockey.com/2013/7/27/4563432/the-affect-of-teammates-and-opponents-on-offensive-and-defensive

    Pierce at Broad Street Hockey did the initial work on this that got Steve Burth thinking and working towards the SDI thing.

    The key ideas to take away from Pierce’s piece are:

    1) …a player’s teammates have a far greater impact on a players Corsi For per 20 minutes than a player’s opponents….Specifically that differences in Quality of competition amongst players are not large enough to have that great of an impact.

    2) We are seeing that about 50.4% of the variance in a player’s Corsi against per 20 minutes comes from his teammates, and we see a much smaller R^2 value when looking at the impact of opponents.

    Also,

    Burtch uses stats.hockeyanalysis’ CF and CA and not CorRel for this reason:


    I’ve made some tinkering to the input and refined some of the process to clarify a few things. It was pointed out to me that using Corsi REL QoT is relatively flawed because Behind The Net includes ice time where the player in question is on the ice in the calculation. This led to some further analysis that I undertook comparing the impacts of Team CA20, Team CF20, and Opp CF20 and Opp CA20 on a player’s offensive and defensive results – this was fleshed out in detail by Pierce Cuneen at Broad Street Hockey here – I strongly suggest you read that posting as the information contained in it is highly relevant to the rest of this discussion.

    For this reason I have switched to making use of the Team CA20 from stats.hockeyanalysis.com because it is based on all of the ice time a player’s line mates have WITHOUT them on the ice. This mitigates against some of the multi-collinearity and team effect issues, but introduces sample size problems in a different sense. For similar reasons, I decided to include Opp CF20 from stats.hockeyanalysis.com rather than using Corsi REL QoC. Again – the goal was to assess competition without impacts that include the player being analysed.

    I highly recommend reading and exploring all three links.

    Really interesting stuff there.

  37. russ99 says:

    IMO, Ference is the best acquisition of the offseason.

    Step away from the Corsi a minute and look at the makeup of our defensive unit. Who else brings to the table the things (yes, things not readily tracked by stats) that Ference does? Nobody:

    1. Name on the Stanley Cup
    2. Leader in the room
    3. History of mentoring young defensemen
    4. Solid own-zone play
    5. Guy coaches rely on when needing a shutdown defender, especially in the playoffs.

    He’s a vital player on our defensive unit and will eat a ton of minutes. I see him taking on a “Gator” Smith type of role, and he just might wear the “C” too.

    IMO, tracking things by Corsi is useless when a defensive defenseman who plays well in his own zone manages 13 points and a plus-9 (plus-minus again is even-strength/PK points the TEAM produces while he’s on the ice) over 48 games.

    There’s no way he’s going to balance out those limited offensive numbers (which follows: limited shots for) by keeping shots down in his own zone. Superman couldn’t do that. Besides, every defenseman is going to give up shots.

    Moral of the story: We should stop declaring worth based on things a player can’t control.

  38. Logan91 says:

    russ99,

    You took the words right out of my mouth.

  39. Ferknuckle – Just What the Doctor Ordered? | The Oilers Rig says:

    [...] of a mixed or half empty bag, depending on how you look at it, but you can read more about that here, here and here. So what is with all this abound optimism you ask? Open your eyes and ears [...]

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